Fri, May 26 2023, 2:04 PM
Bonds Diverge Over Data Implications
It's been a consistently bad week for the bond market and this morning'...
Fri, May 26 2023, 11:12 AM
Did you know that wheat futures prices are at a 2-year low? And lumber prices continue to drop? Those numbers should help reduce inflation. During the...
Thu, May 25 2023, 4:34 PM
It was bad news but big news a few days ago when the average top tier 30yr fixed rate made it back to 7% for the first time since early March. After ...
Thu, May 25 2023, 4:24 PM
Debt Ceiling Debate Volatility Causing Issues For Bonds
Treasuries sold off in a linear fashion today--much ...
Thu, May 25 2023, 1:35 PM
Despite vague hints of support over the past few days, the bond market is back to the same old tricks seen last week. It's actually a pretty simple t...
Thu, May 25 2023, 11:48 AM
The number of contracts to purchase pre-owned homes was unchanged in April. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said its Pending Home Sales ...
Thu, May 25 2023, 9:34 AM
My notes from the MBA’s conference this week continue, including talk about new home sales being +4.1 percent for the month (+11 percent year over yea...
Wed, May 24 2023, 4:43 PM
Wednesday was a fairly volatile day for mortgage rates. The movement wasn't extreme, but there were a few lead changes. The day began with the avera...
Wed, May 24 2023, 4:27 PM
Today is Best Viewed as "In-Range Volatility"
Bonds began the day on the back foot as UK inflation crushed f...
Wed, May 24 2023, 10:26 AM
As the MBA’s Secondary Conference in New York wraps up, and jokes are made about who actually paid for Fannie’s reception (informally titled “The Repu...
Wed, May 24 2023, 9:25 AM
UK inflation data came in HOT overnight with the core m/m reading up1.3% vs 0.9% f'cast, a far cry from the 0.4% m/m core inflation in the US and anot...
Wed, May 24 2023, 8:35 AM
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.6 percent on a seas...
Tue, May 23 2023, 4:58 PM
Today's headline is the most dramatic part of today's story on mortgage rates. The average top tier 30yr fixed rate has been mostly operating in a 6-...
Tue, May 23 2023, 4:49 PM
Debt Ceiling Finally Having an Impact
After several weeks in the news cycle spotlight, the debt ceiling is f...
Tue, May 23 2023, 1:30 PM
Today's most relevant econ data--S&P Global Services PMI--came in at 55.1 versus a 51.5 forecast. In a world where the bond market is generally afrai...
Tue, May 23 2023, 9:47 AM
Does your company have a decent product for a borrower who crowd-funded their down payment? How about a house with a granny unit in the back? Trends i...
Mon, May 22 2023, 4:36 PM
There are some broad rate surveys/indices that show 30yr fixed mortgage rates under 6.5% or close to it, but it's a bit of a mystery as to how such a ...
Mon, May 22 2023, 4:24 PM
Why Are We Here And Where Are We Going?
The bond market has entered a lull heading into Memorial Day weekend...
Mon, May 22 2023, 12:53 PM
If you're as determined as we are to avoid reading any more than you need to about the debt ceiling, then the Fed is pretty much the only game in town...
Mon, May 22 2023, 10:31 AM
If you’re staying here in Manhattan, space is at a premium. I don’t recall the last time my room had a bathroom where one could turn the shower on, fl...
Fri, May 19 2023, 4:24 PM
The debt ceiling debate is all over the news, but it's a different ceiling is commanding more of the bond market's attention. Still, we wouldn't say ...
Fri, May 19 2023, 4:14 PM
What The Range Breakout Means For The Outlook
With bonds seeing additional weakness after breaking above 3.6...
Fri, May 19 2023, 11:05 AM
Yesterday's headline was "range breakout?" with a question mark. We only need a change in punctuation to adapt the headline to today's reality. Yiel...
Fri, May 19 2023, 10:10 AM
For me, yesterday involved a trip from Connecticut to Northern California, with talk of a lack of inventory, relatively high mortgage rates, and loan ...
Thu, May 18 2023, 3:44 PM
Range Breakout ?
The day began with data-driven selling pushing 10yr yields up and over the 3.60% range boun...
Thu, May 18 2023, 3:20 PM
It may not be a death by a thousand cuts, but mortgage rates are suffering a bit of blood loss from roughly 5 cuts. Specifically, the past 5 days hav...
Thu, May 18 2023, 3:04 PM
Existing home sales account for the lion's share of all home sales in the U.S. Unlike "New Home Sales," this data series tracks previously sold homes...
Thu, May 18 2023, 9:14 AM
This Commentary has made a name for itself in covering breaking, shocking news that other, lesser outlets are too timid to even mention. “One day I ho...
Wed, May 17 2023, 3:45 PM
For The Bond Market, The Waiting Will Continue
Phrases like "hurry up and wait" and "ho hum day" have been i...
Wed, May 17 2023, 3:36 PM
Mortgage rates have been moving higher since late last week, ultimately hitting the highest levels in just over 2 weeks yesterday, but that trend ende...
Wed, May 17 2023, 1:04 PM
One would think that the debt ceiling debate would be a key issue for the bond market considering Treasuries are sort of the definitive US government ...
Wed, May 17 2023, 11:39 AM
The April Residential Construction Report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development shows mixed results in April...
Wed, May 17 2023, 10:47 AM
I head to Connecticut early today for the CMBA conference, but on another personal note, congratulations to Robbie Chrisman, host of the daily mortgag...
Wed, May 17 2023, 9:51 AM
The volume of mortgage applications, which had risen by more than 6 percent the prior week lost nearly all those gains during the week ended May 12. T...
Tue, May 16 2023, 3:36 PM
Breaking Down The Paradoxical Reaction to Retail Sales
Today's Retail Sales headline may have missed the mar...
Tue, May 16 2023, 3:35 PM
Mortgage rates didn't change much today. The average lender was only a hair higher than yesterday afternoon. But that was enough for today's rates t...
Tue, May 16 2023, 2:25 PM
Home builders’ attitudes about the market for newly constructed homes continued to improve in May, partially due to the lack of available pre-owned ho...
Tue, May 16 2023, 11:41 AM
Bonds began the day in slightly stronger territory but are in the midst of a paradoxical sell-off following weaker than expected Retail Sales. Weaker...
Tue, May 16 2023, 9:19 AM
While Academy Mortgage is in the headlines again about its data breach and ransomware, from which no company seems immune, remember that, “In a democr...
Mon, May 15 2023, 4:14 PM
For those who only want to be woken up when mortgage rates make a big move down into the 5% range or back up and over 7%, you're free to go. The most...
Mon, May 15 2023, 4:01 PM
Hurry Up And Wait
The bond market is increasingly resigned to the fairly boring task of waiting to find out ...
Mon, May 15 2023, 12:28 PM
While it may be blessing for rates to be flatter and more predictable lately, the fact that the sideways range is close to long-term highs feels more ...
Mon, May 15 2023, 9:54 AM
“When I was young, I was poor. But after decades of hard work, I am no longer young.” The quip about “The greatest cause of death is birth” aside, we’...
Fri, May 12 2023, 7:33 PM
Scroll down far enough on the list of Webster's definitions of the word "consolidate," and you'll find "to form together into a compact mass." Financ...
Fri, May 12 2023, 3:36 PM
Bonds Bounce Data Confirms Range Resistance
Yesterday's bounce at 3.35% suggested that the bond market's wil...
Fri, May 12 2023, 10:02 AM
If I had a dollar for every time someone called me a boring nerd, I'd have a mean daily income of $5.64 with a standard deviation of $1.25. Turning “b...
Thu, May 11 2023, 4:59 PM
Mortgage rates inched lower again on Thursday as economic reports came out slightly weaker and bank sector concerns remain in the spotlight. Such thi...
Thu, May 11 2023, 4:50 PM
Rally or Resistance?
The bond market rallied on Thursday with 10yr yields dropping about 5bps to just under ...
Thu, May 11 2023, 11:51 AM
The market is definitely in an on-again, off-again romance with bank drama. Today was already shaping up to be an "on-again" day before the open as P...
Thu, May 11 2023, 10:51 AM
In Boston, “wicked pissa smart” is a compliment. I’ll argue that success in lending isn’t based on trying to predict where interest rates are going, s...
