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Bonds Talked Into Modest Gains by Europe
US bond traders didn't necessarily come into work with the intention of adding to yesterday's rally. It was only after European bonds exploded into stronger territory that US yields grudgingly followed--very grudgingly. In fact, as soon as European trading wrapped up for the day, US yields rose back to meet yesterday's 3pm closing levels. Several big corporate bonds may have added some pressure. We can also consider that US bonds already had a fairly big rally after the Fed yesterday. But the simplest view would be that it didn't make sense to get too carried away with the jobs report on deck in the morning.
Econ Data / Events
Jobless Claims
183 vs 200 f'cast,186k prev
Unit Labor Costs, Q4
1.1 vs 1.5 f'cast, 2.0 prev
Market Movement Recap
09:05 AM Flat to slightly stronger overnight. Additional gains after ECB announcement. 10yr down 8bps at 3.34%. MBS up 3/8ths of a point
12:51 PM Largely sideways during the domestic session, but off the best levels from earlier this morning. 10yr down 3.8bps at 3.376. MBS up 6 ticks (.19) in 4.5 coupons and 3 ticks (0.09) in 5.0 coupons.
01:51 PM Weakest levels of the day in Treasuries with 10yr up to 3.404 (still down 1.3bps on the day). MBS are also still slightly stronger, but more than a quarter point off the highs.
03:18 PM Not much additional weakness over the past hour. Still slightly stronger on the day but near the weakest levels of the day.
MBS Commentary
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Bonds Talked Into Modest Gains by Europe
US bond traders didn't necessarily come into work with the intention of adding to yesterday's rally. It was only after European bonds exploded into stronger terr... (read more)
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Mortgage Rate Watch
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Mortgage rates responded favorably to yesterday's press conference with Fed Chair Powell. We discussed that move in detail in yesterday's commentary: Fed Hikes Rates. Mortgage Rates Drop. Here's How That Works. Now today, the average lender im... (read more)
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Rob Chrisman
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Happy Groundhog Day, where the rodent saw its shadow this morning, so plan on six more weeks of winter. There’s an old Yiddish proverb “We plan, God laughs.” Lots of people plan on owning a home, and will need financing. (Today’s podcast features an ... (read more)
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