Builder confidence slipped to start the year, with the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) falling two points to 37 in January. The erasure of December’s modest gains doesn't really do much to change the broader picture: builder sentiment remains stuck in a holding pattern near its lowest levels, weighed down by the usual suspects of persistent affordability challenges and rising construction costs. The underlying components weakened across the board. The index measuring current sales conditions dipped one point to 41, while the gauge tracking prospective buyer traffic fell three points to 23—continuing to solidify its status in “low to very low” territory. Most notably, future sales expectations declined three points to 49, slipping below the breakeven level of 50 for the first time since September. “While the upper end of the housing market is holding steady, affordability conditions are taking a toll on the lower and mid-range sectors,” said NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes. “Buyers are concerned about high home prices and mortgage rates, with down payments particularly challenging given elevated price-to-income ratios.” There was at least a partial offset on the rate front. NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz pointed to a recent decline in mortgage rates to the lowest level in three years. However, most survey responses were collected before the announcement that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities, meaning any benefit from that policy action was largely not reflected in January’s results.

January 16, 2026 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.07% +0.03%   6.01% 7.13% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.60% +0.03%   5.55% 6.52% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.35% +0.01%   6.1% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Jan 16, 2026 Mortgage Rates End Week at Highs Fri, Jan 16, 2026 4:06PM Don't stress out. If we ignore the past 5 days, today's mortgage rates are still the lowest since early 2023.  That said, they're up a bit from last week and they moved moderately higher day-over-day. Last week's news regarding Fannie and Freddie's plans to buy $200 bln of MBS (the mortgage-backed securities that directly dictate mortgage rates) made for a rapid drop in the average mortgage rate, but that had largely run its course by Monday. Since then, the market has been finding its range. Mortgages have also been contending with countervailing forces in the broader bond market. Spec... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.07% +0.03 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.60% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.75% +0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.35% +0.01 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.63% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.77% +0.05 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 1/16 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.06% -0.10 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.38% -0.08 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 1/15 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.18% -0.07 0.56 15 Yr. Fixed 5.60% -0.04 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.42% +0.10 0.43 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 1/14 UMBS 30YR 5.0 100.05 -0.13   95.36 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.32 -0.05   97.76 101.64 10 YR Treasury 4.223 +0.050   3.932 4.630 Slow Start, Quiet Calendar Fri, Jan 16, 2026 10:38AM Last week reinforced the lesson anything can happen in the bond market--even with less than an hour left on an otherwise uneventful day. There's no way to plan ahead for that eternal caveat, so we're left to observe prevailing momentum/volatility and simply consider risks on the event calendar. In today's case, bonds are moderately weaker overnight with 10yr... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 98.15 -0.19 UMBS 5.0 100.05 -0.13 UMBS 5.5 101.32 -0.05 GNMA 4.5 97.98 -0.04 GNMA 5.0 99.93 -0.09 GNMA 5.5 101.06 +0.04 Pricing as of: 1/17 1:20AM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.585 +0.019 5 YR Treasury 3.816 +0.048 7 YR Treasury 4.015 +0.054 10 YR Treasury 4.223 +0.050 30 YR Treasury 4.836 +0.038 Pricing as of: 1/17 1:20AM EST Other News Builder Sentiment Survey Not Yet Reflecting Recent Rate Changes Fri, Jan 16, 2026 2:23PM Builder confidence slipped to start the year, with the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) falling two points to 37 in January. The erasure of December’s modest gains doesn't really do much to change the broader picture: builder sentiment remains stuck in a holding pattern near its lowest levels, weighed down b... (read more) Compliance, Servicing, Mortgage Reset Tools; February and March Events and Education Fri, Jan 16, 2026 11:50AM How are we halfway done with January already? Wasn’t it just New Year’s? Some lenders slow down in the winter, but I am hearing reports of great Decembers and Januarys. Wanna fire up your sales team? Here’s an article: “The golden handcuffs are slipping in the U.S. housing market.” As industry vets knew they would eventually, borrowers with “once-in-a-lifeti... (read more) Latest Video Homebuilder sentiment comes in lower than expected in January Fed's Bowman: Fed should remain ready to adjust policy toward neutral unles... Former Dallas Fed Pres. Kaplan: The Fed won't cut rates until they see impr... December industrial production beats expectations Around the Web CNBC Warsh sprints ahead in Fed chair race following Trump comments on Hassett, prediction markets show CNBC Trump's proposed ban on buying single-family homes introduces uncertainty for family offices Eye on Housing Builder Sentiment Loses Ground at Start of 2026 CNBC U.S. Treasury yields mixed as investors weigh the state of the U.S. economy Eye on Housing Existing Home Sales Climb to Near 3-Year High in December Breaking The News US initial jobless claims down by 9,000 to 198,000 Federal Reserve Miran, Regulations, the Supply Side, and MonetaryPolicy NAR NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 5.1% Increase in December Investing Live NY Fed manufacturing index for January +7.70 vs +1.0 expected CNBC Commercial real estate deal-making slows again in November Eye on Housing Building Material Price Growth Remains Elevated in November Eye on Housing Remodeling Market Sentiment Strengthens in Fourth Quarter of 2025 CNBC Treasury yields nudge higher as investors monitor geopolitical uncertainty

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