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In a surprising turn of events, this week's biggest market mover for interest rates was a policy announcement by the Bank of Canada (BOC). The event was credited for prompting a re-think of the US Federal Reserve's rate outlook. Specifically, the BOC hiked rates despite about half the market believing it would hold steady.  While the odds that the Fed holds steady at next Wednesday's announcement are quite a bit better, the argument this week was that central banks might err on the side of tough love as opposed trusting that inflation would subside.   If we look at year-over-year numbers, it seems clear that inflation is subsiding.  The following chart shows both monthly and annual versions of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at the "core" level (which excludes more volatile food and energy prices).  Core CPI is the most relevant inflation data as far as rates are concerned.  The next release is next Tuesday, one day before the Fed announces whether or not it is hiking rates again. If we zoom in on the monthly number only, we see a different theme.  Inflation is still well above target levels and still trying to make up its mind on the direction of the next move. This inflation dynamic is responsible for the division of opinion on the Fed's next move.  Actually, it would be better to think of the uncertainty in terms of the longer-term Fed Funds Rate path.  Indeed, the Fed is unlikely to hike next week (unless CPI is far above expectations).  Traders have been more interested in adjusting their expectations for where the Fed will be by the end of the year.  Less than a month ago, futures markets were betting on a full point of rate cuts by December.  As of Friday, the same metrics suggest the Fed might not be cutting rates at all in 2023.
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June 9, 2023
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Mortgage Rate Watch
Rates Seen Staying Higher For Longer. Blame Canada?
In a surprising turn of events, this week's biggest market mover for interest rates was a policy announcement by the Bank of Canada (BOC). The event was credited for prompting a re-think of the US Federal Reserve's rate outlook. Specifically, the BO... (read more)
MBS Commentary
Canada Doesn't Really Matter. Bring on CPI and The Fed
Canada Doesn't Really Matter. Bring on CPI and The Fed The day began with a hunt for the mystery market mover behind the 8:30am spike in Treasury yields.  Once it was revealed to be Canada's jobs report,... (read more)
Rob Chrisman
Accounting, Digital, Broker Comp Tools; FHA, VA, USDA Developments; Why Rates are Stubborn
Imagine my surprise at finding tag (like on the playground) is an organized sport. Imagine my surprise at finding two gas stations at the same intersection yesterday in Truckee, California with two different prices for unleaded! Rather than wait for ... (read more)
Mortgage Rates
30 Yr. Fixed Rate
6.92% +0.02%
Rate Change Points
Mortgage News Daily
30 Yr. Fixed 6.92% +0.02 0.00
15 Yr. Fixed 6.30% +0.01 0.00
30 Yr. FHA 6.60% +0.02 0.00
30 Yr. Jumbo 6.68% +0.01 0.00
5/1 ARM 6.92% +0.02 0.00
30 Yr. VA 6.62% +0.05 0.00
Updates Daily - Last Update: 6/9
15 Yr. Fixed Rate
6.30% +0.01%
Rate Change Points
Freddie Mac
30 Yr. Fixed 6.71% -0.08 0.00
15 Yr. Fixed 6.07% -0.11 0.00
Updates Weekly - Last Update: 6/8
Rate Change Points
Mortgage Bankers Assoc.
30 Yr. Fixed 6.91% +0.22 0.83
15 Yr. Fixed 6.41% +0.26 0.84
30 Yr. Jumbo 6.78% +0.21 0.76
Updates Weekly - Last Update: 5/31
MBS / Treasuries
UMBS 30YR 5.0
98.47 -0.05
Price / Yield Change
MBS
UMBS 5.0 98.47 -0.05
UMBS 5.5 99.98 -0.05
GNMA 5.0 98.64 -0.02
GNMA 5.5 100.06 +0.02
Pricing as of: 6/10 5:32PM EST
10 Year US Treasury
3.7430 +0.0230
Price / Yield Change
US Treasury
2 YR Treasury 4.596 +0.077
5 YR Treasury 3.915 +0.057
7 YR Treasury 3.837 +0.041
10 YR Treasury 3.743 +0.023
30 YR Treasury 3.883 -0.003
Pricing as of: 6/10 5:32PM EST
Latest Video
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Former Fed Governor Frederic Mishkin explains why the Fed shouldn't pause r...
Delinquencies for commercial office spaces are going to rise, says Marcus &...
Older households' spending outstripping that of younger generations, BofA I...
Around the Web
Eye on Housing
Revolving Consumer Credit Growth Remains Near 25-Year High
CNBC
The Federal Reserve may pause its interest rate hiking campaign. What that means for you
Calculated Risk Blog
Q2 GDP Tracking: Around 1% to 2%
Eye on Housing
For Builders, Lot Shortage Eases But is Still a Problem
CNBC
The U.S. economy keeps skirting recession, but consumer sector might slowly be splitting apart
Calculated Risk Blog
The "Home ATM" was Closed in Q1; Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) turns negative in Q1 2023
CNBC
Jobless claims increase more than expected to their highest since October 2021
CNBC
Treasury yields climb as investors prepare for Fed policy meeting
Eye on Housing
Housing Affordability Posts Solid Gain but Still Much Lower from a Year Ago
Calculated Risk Blog
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 2.3% Year-over-year
Calculated Risk Blog
Lawler: Census 2020, Population Estimates, and Population Projections: Challenges for Demographers
Wall Street Journal
Home Insurers Curb New Policies in Risky Areas Nationally
CNBC
Euro zone enters recession after Germany, Ireland growth revision
© 2023  Mortgage News Daily, LLC. | 19701 Bethel Church Rd. | Cornelius, NC 28031
Interest rates displayed are national averages and for informational purposes only. Actual rates from lenders may vary based on several factors including, but not limited to, credit worthiness, ability to replay, credit score, down payment, loan term, etc.
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Today's Mortgage Rates  |  Mortgage Calculators
6/9/2023
30 Yr. Fixed Rate
6.92%
+0.02%
0.00
MBS & Treasury Prices
UMBS 30YR 5.0
98.47
-0.05
10 Year US Treasury
96.969
-0.188
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