Last month's New Home Sales data from the Census Bureau was a real downer.  It showed sharp declines in sales and a puzzlingly abrupt jump in inventory levels.  One thing we used to point out about this data series was its immense margins of error.  These could frequently result in major revisions that ended up painting completely different pictures compared to the initial release. For whatever reason, the size of those revisions remained stable enough in recent years that our coverage hasn't felt the need to point it out as regularly.  Today doesn't necessarily bring that old school feeling back with a vengeance, but there was moderately big revision that brought last month's 591k reading up to 629k (for the month of April). The bigger news is the extent to which May's new home sales crushed forecasts.  The median forecast saw sales coming in at 588k--a far cry from the actual reading of 696k.  When taken in conjunction with last month's positive revision, it completely changes the tone of the long-term trend from one of "volatile reversal" to "gradually leveling off." Granted, big margins of error cut both ways and there's no guarantee today's 696k will remain intact by the time it's revised in a month.  That said, it could go higher or lower.   As always, keep in mind that the new home market is significantly smaller than the existing home market.  That one still conveys more of a "volatile reversal," albeit to levels that are in line with pre-pandemic highs in 2016-2018.

June 24, 2022 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Housing News New Home Sales Paint Completely Different Picture Versus Last Month Last month's New Home Sales data from the Census Bureau was a real downer.  It showed sharp declines in sales and a puzzlingly abrupt jump in inventory levels.  One thing we used to point out about this data series was its immense margins o... (read more) Housing News Black Knight's First Look: Another Record Low For Delinquencies Rates may be much higher in each of the past 3 months, but those with mortgages are making their payments with record-setting regularity.  The overall delinquency rate fell 0.05% to 2.75% in May--the third consecutive record low. Serious delinq... (read more) Rob Chrisman Pre-Qual, Appraisal, Marketing, Accounting Tools; Rural Housing Process and Ginnie Mae News Knocking on wood is an apotropaic (averting bad luck) tradition of literally touching, tapping, or knocking on wood, or merely stating that one is doing or intending to do so, in order to avoid "tempting fate" after making a favorable prediction or b... (read more) Mortgage Rates Housing is Normalizing, Not Dying; Nice Rate Rebound After Last Week's Rout 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.85% +0.10% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 5.85% +0.10 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.25% +0.13 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.25% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 5.00% +0.05 0.00 5/1 ARM 5.34% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.50% -0.25 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 6/24 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.25% +0.13% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 5.78% +0.55 0.90 15 Yr. Fixed 4.81% +0.43 0.90 5/1 Yr. ARM 4.33% +0.21 0.30 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 6/16 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 5.98% +0.33 0.77 15 Yr. Fixed 5.05% +0.26 0.86 30 Yr. Jumbo 5.49% +0.24 0.45 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 6/22 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 4.5 99.91 -0.09 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 4.5 99.91 -0.09 UMBS 5.0 101.63 -0.17 GNMA 4.5 101.06 -0.05 GNMA 5.0 102.13 -0.08 Pricing as of: 6/26 4:09AM EST 10 Year US Treasury 3.1376 +0.0488 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.063 +0.051 5 YR Treasury 3.188 +0.046 7 YR Treasury 3.203 +0.047 10 YR Treasury 3.138 +0.049 30 YR Treasury 3.265 +0.059 Pricing as of: 6/26 4:09AM EST Latest Video Home prices and interest rates causing buyers to pause and reconsider: Lenn... Oil refinery margins are running 'off the charts,' says Again Capital's Joh... The 2pm Bond Report - June 24, 2022 The 9am Bond Report - June 24, 2022 Around the Web Calculated Risk Blog May New Home Sales Increase, Over 5 Months of Inventory Under Construction Calculated Risk Blog New Home Sales and Cancellations Calculated Risk Blog Q2 GDP Forecasts: Fairly Wide Range Calculated Risk Blog Realtor.com Reports Weekly Inventory Up 21% Year-over-year Reuters Fed's Bowman calls for steep rate hikes to fight inflation CNBC Consumer sentiment survey followed by the Fed shows inflation expectations ease slightly Marketwatch U.S. stocks bounce in choppy trade after Powell outlines challenges to Fed’s soft landing plan CNBC U.S. Treasury yields move higher as investors monitor economic data, Fed speeches Reuters German bond yields set for first weekly fall since May as growth fears grip Calculated Risk Blog Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 229,000 CNBC Watch Jerome Powell testify to Congress on the economy and how the Fed plans to fight inflation Federal Reserve Bowman, The Outlook for Inflation and MonetaryPolicy Reuters European stocks skid on gloomy business activity data, commodity weakness

© 2022  Mortgage News Daily, LLC. | 19701 Bethel Church Rd. | Cornelius, NC 28031 Interest rates displayed are national averages and for informational purposes only. Actual rates from lenders may vary based on several factors including, but not limited to, credit worthiness, ability to replay, credit score, down payment, loan term, etc. This email was sent to: [recipientemail]. Go here to UNSUBSCRIBE from this email.