Mortgage rates have fallen nearly 2% from last year's peak. Much of that decrease can be viewed as the normal phenomenon of longer term rates getting...
This morning's Retail Sales headline was stronger than expected, but the sub-components (analogous to something like core CPI as opposed to headline C...
Does it give you a sense of permanency if you think about how you’re looking at the same moon as pirates did 300-400 years ago? There’s a lunar eclips...
The new week began on a relatively quiet note in terms of mortgage rate movement and the underlying bond market. There was modest volatility earlier...
So far in the new week, bonds have rallied a bit in the overnight session and sold off a bit after this morning's stronger NY Fed Manufacturing data. ...
The Pirate goes to the dermatologist and says, “Arrg, I got moles.” The dermatologist says, “Don’t worry, they’re benign.” The Pirate replies, “Arrg, ...
We've talked a lot about why the Fed rate cut will have no additional positive impact on mortgage rates next week. Everything the market can already ...
“I pay you to handle my loan and give me a good program with a competitive rate, not predict things you can’t.” At a recent event, a top originator to...
Today's only potentially relevant economic data was the 10am Consumer Sentiment data. This report comes out twice a month, once in "preliminary" form...
While it's true that there have only been 8 business days so far this month, it's also true that today is the only one of the 8 where mortgage rates h...
“Honey, what did you do today?” “Well…” People do some cockamamie stuff against all odds. What are the odds of a lender or LO retaining their client a...
Thursday brings this week's last opportunity for the market to react to moderately important economic data before next week's Fed announcement. So fa...
Mortgage rates moved lower again today despite a key inflation report coming in higher than expected. This is counterintuitive for anyone who's been ...
Heading into today's CPI data, there were valid doubts about the data's role as one of the two biggest market movers (the jobs report being the other)...
When I board an airplane, it is to go from point A to point B, like today from Denver to San Francisco. As long as it’s on time and somewhat economica...
Mortgage rates are based on trading in the bond market and bonds consistently take cues from economic data. Among the data, some reports are vastly m...
Every once in a while, a new loan program is “invented.” Lenders have to make sure they’re doing it correctly. (Don’t try this at home.) At events aro...
The new week is off to a nice, anti-climactic start. Monday morning's yields were slightly higher at first but fell into stronger territory by mid da...
The average lender's top tier 30yr fixed rate fell to the lowest level since April 2023 last week. That's down more than 1.25% over the past 5 months....
Despite heavy volume and volatility, Friday's trading session managed to conclude in roughly sideways territory. The new week is starting off on a ca...
Forget ATR. What about ATN? The Ability to Nap. Here in Denver, at The Mortgage Collaborative event, napping is not on the agenda… Every lender out th...
Mortgage rates have a long and storied history of making big moves on the day that the big monthly jobs report comes out. In that regard, today was f...
“The credit card company called me to report suspicious activity... I asked what kind of suspicious activity, and they said someone made a payment.” “...
At first glance, this morning's jobs report suggested a modest but clearly-defined increase in the likelihood of a 50bp rate cut from the Fed in 2 wee...
Wouldn't it be nice if you could know what was going to happen with mortgage rates before it actually happened? Since the dawn of time in financial m...
Thursday morning had the highest concentration of economic reports so far this week with ADP, Challenger, Claims, and two flavors of Services PMI data...
“If you were born in September, it's pretty safe to assume that your parents started their new year with a bang.” Are originators getting a “bang for ...
Mortgage rates moved lower for the 2nd straight day on Wednesday with the average lender right in line with their lowest levels since August 5th. In ...
Market movement continues suggesting increased focus on labor-related economic data. This morning's JOLTS (job openings and labor turnover survey) is...
I don’t know what, exactly, separates irony, satire, or paradox. Whatever category this falls into, it’s a classic tale of biblical proportions. (Othe...
Interest rates continued their slow decline last week while application volume is inching up almost as slowly. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) ...
You never know what you're going to get on the days surrounding a 3 day weekend for financial markets, and that's doubly true when it corresponds with...
It was the third of September, a day I’ll always remember… Will September 18th be remembered as the day that the Federal Reserve lowers fed funds for ...
Remember last Friday? It was sort of "weird" due to enigmatic selling pressure in the bond market. Yields stretched up to the highest levels in more ...
Day to day movement has been subdued in mortgage rates recently, and now the week over week movement is just as uneventful. Friday's average top tier...
(In honor of labor, there is no Commentary tomorrow; Tuesday will be the next one. But in honor of August 31 being National Bacon Day, we celebrate wi...
This morning's PCE inflation data was in line with expectations calling for a core monthly reading of 0.2%. In fact, the unrounded number was 0.16+ w...
What Matters in Wednesday's Fed Announcement?
The ongoing disagreement in the market regarding the size of Wednesday's Fed rate cut makes it a very interesting Fed meeting. That said, the size of the cu...