As is the case with a majority of housing and mortgage market data these days, the Existing Home Sales data from NAR is heavily dependent on context. ...
The Mortgage Bankers Association conducts a weekly survey on the level of mortgage applications, both for purchases and refinances. Both data series ...
The Census Bureau released its New Residential Construction report this week, frequently referred to by its principal component "housing starts" (a te...
The National Association of Homebuilders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (aka "builder confidence") hasn't been in a purgatory of sorts, ever since t...
In terms of the market movement that underlies and dictates mortgage rate movement, today looked a lot like yesterday. Things started strong and fade...
Heading into this week's Fed announcement, we noted the consolidation pattern in bonds (the convergence of intraday highs and lows in an increasingly ...
“Elon is firing Twitter employees with bad posture. I have a hunch I might be next.” If I have a sprained finger, I don’t need a heart and lung transp...
It was actually a rather uneventful day for the bond market. That means it should have been an uneventful day for mortgage rates (because they're driv...
The eternal disclaimer: we should never flat-out expect a particular correlation between stocks and bonds, with limited exceptions. Yesterday's Fed an...
“My wife just left me. She says life revolves around baseball and she's sick of it. I'm quite upset. We were together for 7 seasons.” Say hello to the...
Heading into today, we knew the afternoon's Fed announcement was biggest potential flashpoint for interest rate movement, and that the movement probab...
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recen...
Today's only big ticket calendar event is the Fed announcement, but that is more like 3 separate events over the course of roughly 2 hours. The announ...
Tired of writing those pesky checks? Wait no longer: If you don’t want to send a check through the U.S. Mail, for whatever reason, there’s Deluxe Paym...
As we often discuss, mortgage lenders prefer to set their rates once per day. They only make changes when the underlying bond market makes a big enoug...
Recall 2 weeks ago that news of the incoming German Chancellor's ambitions to massively increase debt/spending led to the end of the bond rally in the...
The calendar pages flip. We’re in mortgage conference season again in hotels around the nation, and why not have a little fun leaving your quarters (e...
Mortgage rates are based on movement in the bond market, and the bond market is closed for most of the weekend. As such, one might assume that Monday...
After improving modestly in the overnight session, bonds contended with the Retail Sales data at 8:30am ET. At first glance, it should have been help...
“My friend showed me a photo of a famous meteor crater in Arizona. It's amazing how close it landed to the Visitor's Center!” Here in Tucson, the weat...
Despite some ups and downs on a small scale, mortgage rates have been sideways in the bigger picture. That's a good thing if the latest refi applicat...
Time flies. We’re at “pi day” (3.14), two weeks until the end of the quarter, one month before our taxes are due. Tax returns for individuals are priv...
It's been an on-again, off-again week for bonds and several of their trading motivations. Economic data has played its part at times, but not in any ...
Mortgage rates hit their highest levels in just over 2 weeks yesterday and they were on track to remain unchanged today. In fact, the average lender o...
Teddy Roosevelt thought that lawyers are trained to serve clients and not justice. An interesting discussion topic. Residential lending certainly has ...
Seemingly overnight (i.e. over the past 30 days when it comes to markets reacting to economic data), the CPI and PPI inflation numbers that normally i...
Mortgage rates have moved up over the past 2 days, ultimately hitting the highest levels since February 24th today. While that sounds somewhat unplea...
Today's CPI came in lower than expected. That would normally help bonds rally, but they didn't seem too eager to do that. One explanation is that the ...
With fiscal and geopolitical developments dominating the news cycle, it would be easy to forget that interest rates prefer to take their primary cues ...
Bonds were initially stronger at the start of overnight trading in Asia, but began selling off at a fairly steady clip almost immediately. By the sta...
“Buying eggs on the street and weed in the stores: the times they are changing.” Borrowers are certainly reacting to changes in rates as capital marke...
Conventional 30yr fixed mortgage rates hit their lowest levels in months last Tuesday morning, with the average lender right in line with levels from ...
“Depression is merely anger without enthusiasm.” People flying around the nation have probably observed, or have heard, a change in the mood of airpor...
Over the weekend, Trump was asked if he was expecting a recession this year. He replied that although he hates to predict such things, "there is a per...
The average mortgage lender was briefly able to offer noticeably lower rates this morning compared to yesterday's latest levels. Credit goes to this m...
As we noted last week, the timing of the improvements in mortgage rates meant that the previous survey of mortgage applications from the MBA was unabl...
“If you boil a funny bone, it becomes a laughingstock. Now that's humerus.” What isn’t humer…, uh humorous, is a) most states losing an hour Sunday mo...
Today's jobs report was a mixed bag with the most important number also being the most boring. Headline job creation came in at 151k vs 160k, which i...
Small Scale Weakness Leaves Bigger Picture Unchanged
Bonds began the day in stronger territory after tracing a risk-off move in the overnight session. Much like yesterday, 9:30am brought a momentum reversal, ...