There was certainly the potential for volatility today with the confluence of ADP, ISM, and Job Openings data. But the results ended up being close enough to consensus to obviate any massive reactions. Yields hit their lowest levels in a week after ADP came in slightly softer, but most of the rally was already in place from the overnight session. Stronger ISM and job openings pushed bonds back in the other direction, but not enough to result in bond market losses or negative reprices.
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- ADP Employment
- 41k vs 47k f'cast, -32k prev
- ISM N-Mfg PMI (Dec)
- 54.4 vs 52.3 f'cast, 52.6 prev
- ISM Services Employment (Dec)
- 52.0 vs -- f'cast, 48.9 prev
- ISM Services New Orders (Dec)
- 57.9 vs -- f'cast, 52.9 prev
- ISM Services Prices (Dec)
- 64.3 vs -- f'cast, 65.4 prev
- USA JOLTS Job Openings (Nov)
- 7.146M vs 7.60M f'cast, 7.670M prev
- ADP Employment
Steadily stronger overnight and slightly stronger after ADP. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 4.2bps at 4.123
Losing ground after 10am data. MBS back to unchanged and 10yr down 1.3bps at 4.152
Recovering a bit into mid-day. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 2.8bps at 4.138
Off the strongest levels, but still in stronger territory. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1.6bps at 4.149
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