Wed, Apr 3 2024, 3:34 PM
After starting the week with a sharp move higher, mortgage rates managed to avoid losing much ground yesterday. This was only achieved with a recover...
Wed, Apr 3 2024, 12:00 PM
The other night, at the Bruce Springsteen concert in San Francisco (it was great), he did a crowd favorite, singing, “Baby I got my facts learned real...
Wed, Apr 3 2024, 11:38 AM
Bonds remain under pressure this week, but the pressure is turning out to be slightly lower than it was earlier this morning. Overnight weakness was ...
Wed, Apr 3 2024, 8:16 AM
Mortgage application activity drifted lower again last week , the third straight week of mostly fractional declines. The Mortgage Bankers Association’...
Tue, Apr 2 2024, 4:00 PM
Technical Breakout in Treasuries. Does it Matter?
Bonds began the day in much weaker territory as Treasuries...
Tue, Apr 2 2024, 3:25 PM
After starting the week with a fairly large jump, mortgage rates had a much calmer day on Tuesday. This was made all the more impressive by the fact ...
Tue, Apr 2 2024, 11:53 AM
“I think it’s disgraceful that after 55 years, people don’t know who Neil Armstrong was… or even the type of trumpet he played.” Time flies. Did you k...
Tue, Apr 2 2024, 11:12 AM
Bonds came into the domestic trading day with additional losses. This wasn't a foregone conclusion, but it was a distinct possibility based on past e...
Mon, Apr 1 2024, 3:54 PM
Positioning and Data Deliver Double Whammy For Bonds
There were no whammies last week as bonds drifted sidew...
Mon, Apr 1 2024, 3:27 PM
March ended with a streak of some of the flattest day-over-day changes in mortgage rates on record. It was all but certain that the new week/month wo...
Mon, Apr 1 2024, 11:44 AM
In real Commentary news, many folks who read this Commentary are workin’ for a livin’, and many of them are managers. On a recent Truv Zoom call, Lowe...
Mon, Apr 1 2024, 9:00 AM
There are two times of morning that could be considered "the open" for the bond market. As far as the futures market is concerned, it's 8:20am as tha...
Thu, Mar 28 2024, 3:22 PM
Some Month-End Volatility Late in The Day
Yields were near 2 week lows 2 hours before the final trades of th...
Thu, Mar 28 2024, 3:01 PM
Unfortunately, we don't have a great way to measure all of the past precedents, but it's safe to say that the this was one of the least volatile weeks...
Thu, Mar 28 2024, 12:24 PM
While the future can't ever be known, this week's base case was for lower volatility, and a general sideways drift heading into the long weekend and b...
Thu, Mar 28 2024, 11:50 AM
Here’s a tip of the day for anyone manning a conference booth: instead of a pen, or mouse pad, how about a locally made treat? Hats off to Aimee, Bobb...
Wed, Mar 27 2024, 3:55 PM
Treasury Auction Relief Rally and Month-End Support
With Thursday being a half day before a 3.5 day weekend,...
Wed, Mar 27 2024, 3:44 PM
There are probably only a few 4-day streaks with effectively no movement in mortgage rates, and this is one of them. After falling to 6.91% last Frid...
Wed, Mar 27 2024, 11:55 AM
Could anything be better than Krispy Kreme coming to McDonalds! Yes! The new HMDA data is here! (More of a more serious note below.) Whether donuts or...
Wed, Mar 27 2024, 11:35 AM
There are no significant economic data on tap today. The only notable event is the 7yr Treasury auction (the last of the week) and it's a bit of a st...
Wed, Mar 27 2024, 8:42 AM
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its Market Composite Index moved lower last week, apparently indifferent to a slight improvement in mortgage int...
Tue, Mar 26 2024, 4:14 PM
Mixed Performance. Data Hurt. Auction Helped. Little Changed
In the bigger picture, bonds found resistance b...
Tue, Mar 26 2024, 3:44 PM
After moving back under 7% last week (conventional, 30yr fixed, top tier scenario), mortgage rates have been increasingly unlikely to move. Today was...
Tue, Mar 26 2024, 1:53 PM
Sales of newly constructed homes were virtually unchanged in February. The 662,000 seasonally adjusted annual units recorded in during the month was d...
Tue, Mar 26 2024, 12:16 PM
Welcome to day 4 of our unofficial 9 day weekend with limited data and volatility ahead of an actual 3.5 day weekend. Is data truly limited if we hav...
Tue, Mar 26 2024, 11:15 AM
As conjecture swirls about the economic impact of the collapse of the bridge in Baltimore, did you ever notice that when you put the two words "The" a...
Mon, Mar 25 2024, 4:18 PM
Weaker Start, But MBS Outperform
The week got off to a weaker start with most of the losses seen during the ...
Mon, Mar 25 2024, 4:07 PM
Mortgage rates enjoyed a decently strong week last week, with the average top tier conventional 30yr fixed rate moving down to 6.91% by Friday from 7....
Mon, Mar 25 2024, 11:54 AM
Here in Louisville, KY, at the TMC event, this one is making the rounds. “What does a real estate agent’s wife say if she can’t sleep? ‘Honey, tell me...
Mon, Mar 25 2024, 11:01 AM
Monday marks the start of a holiday-shortened week (early close on Thursday and fully closed on Friday) and the beginning of a week that will conclude...
Fri, Mar 22 2024, 5:19 PM
9 Day Weekend For The Bond Market
While it's not technically a 9 day weekend for the bond market, it might a...
Fri, Mar 22 2024, 5:15 PM
As the broader market continued rubbing its eyes in disbelief over the Fed's exceptionally calm attitude on inflation, bonds continued to improve toda...
Fri, Mar 22 2024, 1:44 PM
Rather than easing back from the January level as expected, existing home sales shot significantly higher in February, The National Association of Rea...
Fri, Mar 22 2024, 12:11 PM
In the current regime of bond market movement, traders have been running from one side of the field to the other in an attempt to get in on the action...
Fri, Mar 22 2024, 11:55 AM
I saw a sign recently: “Psychic Fair Cancelled Due to Unforeseen Circumstances.” No one can see into the future, or can read minds, and communication ...
Thu, Mar 21 2024, 4:50 PM
Econ Data Keeps Bonds in Check
Looking solely at the end of day trading levels in the bond market, we could ...
Thu, Mar 21 2024, 4:33 PM
It's Thursday and thus time once again to check in with Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey versus reality. To be fair, it's not that Freddie i...
Thu, Mar 21 2024, 12:40 PM
The global trading community digested yesterday's Fed events in a relatively constructive way overnight. Combined with lackluster manufacturing PMIs ...
Thu, Mar 21 2024, 11:38 AM
“90 percent of bald people still own a comb; they just can't part with it.” Many companies that retained servicing in 2020 and 2021, complete with low...
Wed, Mar 20 2024, 4:32 PM
Surprisingly Calm Reaction to Surprisingly Dovish Fed
With so much apparently at stake heading into today's ...
Wed, Mar 20 2024, 4:25 PM
The rate market was intently focused on today's announcement from the Federal Reserve. While many news headlines emphasize the Fed "holding rates ste...
Wed, Mar 20 2024, 2:00 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have moderated since early last year but remain remai...
Wed, Mar 20 2024, 11:39 AM
Anyone wonder what happens after someone steps away from mortgage banking? Well, after exiting Ellie Mae/ICE, Jonathan Corr finds himself involved in ...
Wed, Mar 20 2024, 10:49 AM
The Fed finds itself in an increasingly uncomfortable situation where the market has witnessed several successive months of inflation data that refuse...
Wed, Mar 20 2024, 8:14 AM
After rising a cumulative 17 percentage points over the prior two weeks, mortgage application volume slowed slightly last week. The Mortgage Bankers A...
Tue, Mar 19 2024, 4:26 PM
Ceiling Survives But Wednesday is The Test
Any trading day without a big ticket economic report or Fed annou...
Tue, Mar 19 2024, 4:11 PM
Mortgage rates were roughly unchanged on Tuesday, capping a short but meaningful losing streak over the past 6 business days. During that time, the av...
Tue, Mar 19 2024, 12:51 PM
Builder confidence rose for the fourth straight month and residential construction stats may now be trying to catch up. Both construction permits and ...
Tue, Mar 19 2024, 12:15 PM
While there are several ways in which the trading environment of the past few years is more exciting than normal, it comes with one notable caveat: on...
Tue, Mar 19 2024, 10:37 AM
One never knows what one will learn at a mortgage event, like yesterday learning from Lender Toolkit’s Alex K. that Collinsville, Illinois has the lar...
