Thu, Oct 3 2024, 4:59 PM
Depending on how tuned in you've been to changes in our daily rate tracking, the news may be getting old at this point. Rates have done almost nothin...
Thu, Oct 3 2024, 11:53 AM
Tis the time of year when pumpkins have magically appeared in bins outside supermarkets and on porches. Which state grows the most? It’s hard to beat ...
Thu, Oct 3 2024, 9:46 AM
There are some labor market reports that cause some concern about a weaker job market. And while Jobless Claims is often thought to be a leading indi...
Wed, Oct 2 2024, 4:03 PM
Wednesday's Market Movement Raises Stakes for Friday
There are times when the bond market seems not to care ...
Wed, Oct 2 2024, 3:52 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher today after an employment report suggested that Friday's forthcoming Employment Situation (the BIG jobs report) might come...
Wed, Oct 2 2024, 12:00 PM
The Fed's been saying it for several months and the market has been trading it accordingly for just as long: the focus has clearly shifted away from i...
Wed, Oct 2 2024, 11:43 AM
Whether it was Richey May’s lock picking kit, Maxwell’s milk frother, Total Expert’s socks, or Byte’s locally made sweet treats, there was plenty of v...
Tue, Oct 1 2024, 4:26 PM
Bonds Unexpectedly Forced to Focus on War Instead of Data
Just 30 minutes before the month's most important ...
Tue, Oct 1 2024, 4:04 PM
While the past 5 months have been well-stocked with victories for mortgage rates, the past week and a half brought a bit of a pull back. Most of that...
Tue, Oct 1 2024, 11:42 AM
We find ourselves in the 4th quarter of 2024. October is here! Do you want to beat the rush for buying the Halloween candy that’s most popular in your...
Tue, Oct 1 2024, 11:30 AM
This morning's slate of economic data is certainly higher-profile compared to yesterday with JOLTS and ISM Manufacturing always capable of moving the ...
Mon, Sep 30 2024, 5:27 PM
Mortgage rates have generally been moving higher since the Fed cut rates 2 weeks ago. We've discussed and explained that paradox exhaustively and can...
Mon, Sep 30 2024, 5:26 PM
Moderate Losses For Bonds as Powell Stays "Hawkish"
In the lexicon of market watching, the Fed is considered...
Mon, Sep 30 2024, 12:21 PM
Momentum has been building and focus has been shifting. After a few years of inflation reports giving the jobs report a run for its money in terms re...
Mon, Sep 30 2024, 11:43 AM
Well, this is the week that many have been waiting for: Fat Bear Week! The nearly 600 mortgage folks here in Las Vegas at the ACUMA event can talk abo...
Fri, Sep 27 2024, 5:22 PM
Finally Cooling Off Just in Time to Heat Up Again
Much of the past week has been spent monitoring the "post-...
Fri, Sep 27 2024, 5:10 PM
'Tis the season for things to be something other than what they appear to be, apparently. Lenders are talking about new loan limits, but they haven't ...
Fri, Sep 27 2024, 12:05 PM
Just a few months ago, the big ticket inflation reports were just as relevant as the jobs report in terms of their ability to cause movement in the bo...
Fri, Sep 27 2024, 11:49 AM
“Who was the first person that used technology? Moses. He had two tablets that were connected to the cloud.” Technology is a two-edged sword. On the o...
Thu, Sep 26 2024, 5:14 PM
More Resilient Today, But It's Still All About Data
The bond market is still searching for its identity in t...
Thu, Sep 26 2024, 3:25 PM
Because we created the industry's first daily mortgage rate index based on actual lender rate sheets without any subjective distortions, and because t...
Thu, Sep 26 2024, 11:41 AM
At the risk of tempting fate by discussing a leveling-off of the post-Fed correction again, the overnight session saw the most compelling case yet for...
Thu, Sep 26 2024, 11:39 AM
We’re all following Hurricane Helene and its impact on lives and housing stock in the news. Will Rogers famously said, “All I know is what I read in t...
Wed, Sep 25 2024, 4:49 PM
Is it Time to Worry About Bond Market Losses?
Ever since Fed day, it seems the bond market only really knows...
Wed, Sep 25 2024, 4:14 PM
Mortgage rates hit their lowest levels in more than a year and a half last Tuesday as the bond market put the finishing touches on its preparation for...
Wed, Sep 25 2024, 11:54 AM
“My people skills are fine. It's my tolerance for idiots that needs work.” Fortunately, in our business we have very, very few of those, and certainly...
Wed, Sep 25 2024, 11:35 AM
The bond market is in a bit of a lull with any excess buying demand flowing to the shorter end of the yield curve. Meanwhile, the long end has been d...
Tue, Sep 24 2024, 4:46 PM
Early Weakness Erased After Labor Market Warning Signs
The first few hours of domestic trading caused some c...
Tue, Sep 24 2024, 4:32 PM
The Federal Reserve is far from the only game in town when it comes to exerting influence on interest rates. That's a loaded statement, of course, co...
Tue, Sep 24 2024, 11:59 AM
Today I leave Illinois, with the world’s largest corn maze, and head to Nebraska, with the world’s largest ball of stamps, things that make life inter...
Tue, Sep 24 2024, 10:50 AM
Monday's trading session offered some hope that the post-Fed correction was losing steam, but purely from a technical standpoint. All we really know ...
Mon, Sep 23 2024, 4:57 PM
Post Fed Correction Leveling Off?
Based on the weakness in the bond market this morning, it looked as if the...
Mon, Sep 23 2024, 4:35 PM
Mortgage rates rose modestly last week after hitting long term lows before the Fed announced its 0.50% rate cut. In not so many words, mortgage rates...
Mon, Sep 23 2024, 11:39 AM
Summer has officially come and gone; the autumn equinox was yesterday. Columbus Day, Halloween, Veteran’s Day, and Thanksgiving are in the coming mont...
Mon, Sep 23 2024, 10:42 AM
We closed last week with the idea of "buy the rumor, sell the news" seemingly being a good way to think about the time leading into and away from the ...
Fri, Sep 20 2024, 4:20 PM
Modestly Weaker But Ultimately Uneventful
In terms of the realized volatility relative to potential volatili...
Fri, Sep 20 2024, 3:42 PM
Credit where credit is due: the rate market did an outstanding job of getting out in front of the Fed rate cut as well as the changes to the Fed's rat...
Fri, Sep 20 2024, 11:48 AM
“Someone asked me if I had plans for the fall. It took me a moment to realize they meant ‘autumn’ and not the fall of civilization.” The Autumn solsti...
Fri, Sep 20 2024, 10:32 AM
Wednesday's Fed rate cut was the worst kept secret in the financial world for months, and the 50bp rate cut was increasingly suspected in the week lea...
Thu, Sep 19 2024, 4:02 PM
MBS Easily Outperform Longer-Term Treasuries
Few market watchers would have guessed that MBS would have held...
Thu, Sep 19 2024, 3:47 PM
Today's release of Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey took at bad problem and made it worse. Freddie's survey methodology means that today'...
Thu, Sep 19 2024, 3:37 PM
The post-Fed overnight session was surprisingly calm. In fact, relative to the magnitude of yesterday's events and information, this is surely one of...
Thu, Sep 19 2024, 11:58 AM
“A Native American, pirate, and Frenchman walk into a bar. The bartender says, ‘Gentlemen, hau, arrrrrrr, oui, today?’” No one has to sound out “s-u-m...
Wed, Sep 18 2024, 5:16 PM
Bonds Lose Ground Despite Larger Fed Rate Cut
The Fed was either going to cut 0.50% or 0.25% today. It o...
Wed, Sep 18 2024, 4:59 PM
We publish daily coverage of mortgage rate movement and have done so for nearly 20 years now. It's a great place to quickly check in on rate trends a...
Wed, Sep 18 2024, 11:53 AM
“Q: What does a dyslexic pirate say? A: RRRRRRA!” Humor aside, many in our industry have faced adversity, dyslexia and more, and I received this note:...
Wed, Sep 18 2024, 9:31 AM
There is special providence in a 50bp Fed rate cut. If it be now, 'tis not to come (until the next Fed meeting perhaps). If it be not to come, it wi...
Tue, Sep 17 2024, 3:39 PM
What Matters in Wednesday's Fed Announcement?
The ongoing disagreement in the market regarding the size of W...
Tue, Sep 17 2024, 3:19 PM
Mortgage rates have fallen nearly 2% from last year's peak. Much of that decrease can be viewed as the normal phenomenon of longer term rates getting...
Tue, Sep 17 2024, 11:43 AM
Does it give you a sense of permanency if you think about how you’re looking at the same moon as pirates did 300-400 years ago? There’s a lunar eclips...
