Thu, Jan 11 2024, 4:33 PM
What's Up With Wild Reaction to CPI?
For the level of anticipation heading into it, today's CPI release was ...
Thu, Jan 11 2024, 12:20 PM
The initial reaction to this morning's CPI data has been mixed with weakness initially and now some resilience. Treasuries are underperforming, partl...
Thu, Jan 11 2024, 10:26 AM
Our Federal Reserve doesn’t control events around the world, like a ship being stuck in the Suez Canal, or the current Red Sea geopolitical aggression...
Wed, Jan 10 2024, 3:42 PM
The first thing to understand about mortgage rates over the past 3-4 weeks is that they haven't been moving nearly as quickly as the preceding months....
Wed, Jan 10 2024, 3:41 PM
At Least We Won't Be Waiting For CPI Anymore
The present week has been a bit boring, for lack of a gentler t...
Wed, Jan 10 2024, 12:34 PM
Last Friday's data (jobs report and ISM) marked the last significant calendar event until this week's CPI, due out tomorrow at 8:30am ET. The interve...
Wed, Jan 10 2024, 10:51 AM
I’m so tired of the mainstream press talking about the 2024 election, 10 months out. Given that the median age of U.S. citizens is about 38 years, one...
Wed, Jan 10 2024, 8:36 AM
Mortgage activity rose significantly during the week ended January 5, but it faced a pretty low bar. Loan application numbers were adjusted to account...
Tue, Jan 9 2024, 4:36 PM
While the average 30yr fixed mortgage rate is still more than 1% below the long-term highs seen in October, it has been rising slowly and steadily in ...
Tue, Jan 9 2024, 4:28 PM
Even Narrower Sideways Grind; No Reaction to Auction
Friday's trading session set a reasonably wide range re...
Tue, Jan 9 2024, 11:12 AM
An uneventful overnight session has given way to roughly unchanged levels at the start of another day without CPI. The first 3 days of this week are ...
Tue, Jan 9 2024, 8:37 AM
Is it just my imagination or do restaurants no longer have salt and pepper shakers on the tables after COVID? Is it just my imagination or do organiza...
Mon, Jan 8 2024, 5:16 PM
Range Finding Ahead of Auctions and CPI
The start of the new week saw bonds start at unchanged levels, rally...
Mon, Jan 8 2024, 5:04 PM
Last week saw several key economic events attempt to exert some influence on interest rate momentum without any obvious winner. Rates ended the week ...
Mon, Jan 8 2024, 1:33 PM
Even as consumer sentiment about housing remained generally pessimistic, a change in perceptions about the future of mortgage interest rates did a lot...
Mon, Jan 8 2024, 12:19 PM
Bonds ended the previous week at the highest yields since before the December Fed announcement. The story behind the that story is that yields were r...
Mon, Jan 8 2024, 10:38 AM
California is home to approximately 39 million residents, which is about one-eighth of the U.S. population, more than the entire population of Canada,...
Fri, Jan 5 2024, 5:19 PM
The big jobs report on the first Friday of any given month can be big business for interest rate volatility. Today's example was no exception, but le...
Fri, Jan 5 2024, 5:17 PM
ISM Outshines NFP, But Neither Ended Up Leaving a Mark
It has happened before, but it's not common: those Fr...
Fri, Jan 5 2024, 12:35 PM
Friday is off to a mixed start with the jobs report doing some damage and the ISM Services data undoing that damage. Things are pretty much that simp...
Fri, Jan 5 2024, 10:43 AM
Now is about the time when you stop saying “Happy New Year,” either because it is no longer relevant, or you’ve forgotten who you’ve said it to. Lende...
Thu, Jan 4 2024, 3:30 PM
Lots at Stake With Friday's Jobs Report
Thursday's trading session provided an unpleasant but worthwhile rem...
Thu, Jan 4 2024, 3:25 PM
Wednesday saw mortgage rates recover toward the lower recent levels in response to economic data that wasn't as upbeat as recent examples. That's imp...
Thu, Jan 4 2024, 12:14 PM
Wednesday's data was helpful for the bond market--even if only modestly. Today's is the opposite. The weakness began in Europe with a swath of PMI r...
Thu, Jan 4 2024, 11:00 AM
“My dad always said to me, ‘Work until your bank account looks like a phone number’ so I did. Account balance: $9.11.” You can work harder, or you can...
Wed, Jan 3 2024, 5:21 PM
Proof of Data Dependent Concept
The first two days of the new year were shaping up to paint an unpleasant pi...
Wed, Jan 3 2024, 4:08 PM
As of this morning, it looked like the theme for mortgage rates in 2024 would be up, up, and away--at least as far as the first two business days were...
Wed, Jan 3 2024, 11:47 AM
As long ago as December 14th, we've had our eye on today's 10am economic data as the next reasonably important moment for the bond market. There simp...
Wed, Jan 3 2024, 11:03 AM
“Affordable” means many things. There are residential lending industry jokes about making a loan on anything with axles or a license plate. (Like “don...
Wed, Jan 3 2024, 9:01 AM
Mortgage activity took the usual hit over the last two weeks as the country celebrated a variety of religious and secular holidays. The Mortgage Broke...
Tue, Jan 2 2024, 5:07 PM
Mortgage rates kicked off the new year by jumping to the highest levels since December 13th. That's not too remarkable considering rates were also at...
Tue, Jan 2 2024, 5:05 PM
Bond Selling Suggests Caution, But We're Still Data Dependent
The bond market started off the new year with ...
Tue, Jan 2 2024, 12:18 PM
Hindsight is frequently 20/20 when discussing recent market movement and this morning's weakness is an example that's worth considering. Heading into...
Tue, Jan 2 2024, 10:28 AM
Our Federal Reserve doesn’t control events around the world, like a ship being stuck in the Suez Canal, or the current Red Sea geopolitical aggression...
Fri, Dec 29 2023, 3:32 PM
Uneventful End to an Eventful Year
2023 may be a year that we won't soon forget, but the past two weeks have...
Fri, Dec 29 2023, 3:10 PM
Looking back at October when 30yr fixed mortgage rates were over 8%, a return to the roughly unchanged levels by the end of the year may have seemed l...
Fri, Dec 29 2023, 11:35 AM
“What do you call a gal who’s had too much to drink? A cab.” Of course, anyone who’s been drinking should stay away from California’s 40-foot waves. D...
Fri, Dec 29 2023, 11:28 AM
VA loans have majorly streamlined since a decade ago. The minimal red tape that remains is often justified; VA seeks to protect its veterans. For the...
Fri, Dec 29 2023, 9:59 AM
Today's abbreviated session (early close at 2pm ET) is already being dominated by year-end trading. With December marking the best month in 15 years ...
Thu, Dec 28 2023, 5:18 PM
Random Bounce Back After Random Rally
Bonds failed to do anything remarkable on Thursday as the random stren...
Thu, Dec 28 2023, 4:17 PM
Yesterday was the most interesting day of the past 2 weeks, but that's not saying much. The past 2 weeks have been the calmest for mortgage rates in ...
Thu, Dec 28 2023, 3:15 PM
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) releases two widely followed home sales reports. Existing Home Sales measure transactions of homes other t...
Thu, Dec 28 2023, 12:34 PM
Wednesday's session saw the only meaningful movement of the past two weeks. Now Thursday is pushing back modestly, thus keeping the sleepy, year-end ...
Thu, Dec 28 2023, 10:54 AM
If someone reports their company for tax evasion in the U.S., he or she will receive 30 percent of the amount collected. Have you ever loaned someone ...
Wed, Dec 27 2023, 4:10 PM
The most notable accomplishment for mortgage rates today was the fact that they moved by a normal amount compared to the previous day. That's the fir...
Wed, Dec 27 2023, 4:08 PM
Much Stronger Than Justified, But That Can Happen This Time of Year
On many of the recent days with a simila...
Wed, Dec 27 2023, 12:36 PM
If an average trading day is a 5 on a 1-10 scale, yesterday (Tuesday) would have been a 1 in terms of volume and liquidity. Today's number would only...
Wed, Dec 27 2023, 10:54 AM
Susan Toste writes to Ira Selwin who sends me (see how these things work?), “Can you believe it is 364 days until Christmas and people already have th...
Tue, Dec 26 2023, 3:38 PM
After dropping precipitously from over 8% in late October to well under 7% by December 14th, mortgage rates have been stone silent. In the 7 business...
Tue, Dec 26 2023, 3:38 PM
Quietest Trading Day of The Year
We've seen other days this year where bonds have traded in a similarly narr...
