Fri, Aug 16 2024, 5:17 PM
Mortgage rates had a much calmer week this week compared to the previous 2. The average top tier 30yr fixed rate held a fairly narrow range between 6...
Fri, Aug 16 2024, 12:21 PM
At first glance, the first half of the trading day has been volatile for the bond market, but at second glance, trading levels are just returning in l...
Fri, Aug 16 2024, 12:12 PM
Residential construction slowed in July. Both the rate of permitting and of housing starts were down from the prior month and starts were the worst in...
Fri, Aug 16 2024, 12:03 PM
On a sad note, entrepreneur “Famous Amos” passed away a few days ago. Cookies are a major food group for me, and here was a fellow who had fun and mad...
Thu, Aug 15 2024, 4:29 PM
Jobless Claims May Have Hit Bonds Harder Than Retail Sales
Hot take, and one that's subject to debate, depen...
Thu, Aug 15 2024, 3:53 PM
Mortgage rates had moved a bit lower since their most recent high last Thursday. By yesterday afternoon, the average lender had moved down to 6.49 fr...
Thu, Aug 15 2024, 11:55 AM
Looking at the attendees of various mortgage events around the nation over the last several months, I remember back to when a “new hip joint” meant so...
Thu, Aug 15 2024, 10:31 AM
The record will show that today's Housing Market Index (aka "builder confidence") from the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo fel...
Thu, Aug 15 2024, 10:15 AM
It's a surprisingly straightforward morning for the bond market. The two most important economic reports did exactly the opposite of what bond bulls ...
Wed, Aug 14 2024, 5:06 PM
Uncommonly Flat CPI Reaction
Over the past year, the average CPI day can be picked out on a chart of daily b...
Wed, Aug 14 2024, 4:35 PM
Today brought the release of important economic data with the power to cause a sharp increase or decrease in mortgage rates. There are a wide variety...
Wed, Aug 14 2024, 11:51 AM
This morning I head through Chicago to Michigan to the MMLA Conference, where one of the discussion topics will be the NAR changes and how they impact...
Wed, Aug 14 2024, 11:51 AM
These things happen... While it's true that CPI is one of the two hardest-hitting economic reports (the other being the jobs report), it's also true ...
Wed, Aug 14 2024, 8:06 AM
A second week of lower interest rates appeared to send homeowners scrambling to refinance their higher-rate mortgages assumed over the last few years....
Tue, Aug 13 2024, 4:40 PM
PPI Drives Decent Rally; But CPI Packs a Bigger Punch
This morning's core m/m Producer Price Index hit 0.0% ...
Tue, Aug 13 2024, 4:27 PM
If you're just here to keep an eye on daily changes in mortgage rates, today was solid. There was a modest improvement versus yesterday and the avera...
Tue, Aug 13 2024, 11:44 AM
“I ordered a book titled, ‘How to scam people online’ two months ago. It still hasn't arrived yet.” Let’s open today’s Commentary with a couple topics...
Tue, Aug 13 2024, 8:41 AM
Although last month's CPI data was well-received by the bond market for coming in below expectations and showing a notable drop in the shelter compone...
Mon, Aug 12 2024, 4:48 PM
Uneventful Monday With Modest Gains
From a volume standpoint, both Friday and today were very light. This i...
Mon, Aug 12 2024, 4:35 PM
Today was completely different than the previous Monday in that it was a normal, boring day with essentially no change in mortgage rates over the week...
Mon, Aug 12 2024, 12:22 PM
With almost three more months of political jabbering, here’s a town in Kentucky that keeps politics in perspective with qualified candidates. In a mix...
Mon, Aug 12 2024, 11:43 AM
Summertime Fridays and Mondays are prone to low volumes--especially when they are virtually data-free, as is the case to begin the new week. The pere...
Fri, Aug 9 2024, 5:25 PM
Straightforward, Uneventful Session Caps The Correction
Bonds have been in correction mode for almost the en...
Fri, Aug 9 2024, 4:44 PM
After starting out at the lowest levels in more than a year on Monday morning, mortgage rates had done nothing but increase through Thursday afternoon...
Fri, Aug 9 2024, 11:35 AM
“How do you tell when you're out of invisible ink?” How do you tell when interest rates are “where they’re supposed to be?” Arguably, rates, based on ...
Fri, Aug 9 2024, 11:00 AM
Now that it's essentially over, it's easy to label this week as a quintessential consolidation and/or modest correction. In fact, even before it bega...
Thu, Aug 8 2024, 3:06 PM
Why Jobless Claims Data Moved Markets More Than Normal
Weekly jobless claims data is far from irrelevant, bu...
Thu, Aug 8 2024, 2:50 PM
It's Thursday and thus time once again for a side-by-side glimpse at our actual daily average 30yr fixed mortgage rate and the weekly survey-based rat...
Thu, Aug 8 2024, 11:51 AM
Do you believe there is no opportunity out there, or nothing you haven’t heard of? First of all, there’s an interesting “moonlighting” commercial job ...
Thu, Aug 8 2024, 10:58 AM
"Crushed" is likely too harsh a term for what we're seeing this morning, but were it not for Monday morning's paradigm stretching reversal, this morni...
Wed, Aug 7 2024, 5:33 PM
Bonds Selling Off Like it Was Always The Plan
Very little transpired during Wednesday's trading session to c...
Wed, Aug 7 2024, 5:18 PM
Yesterday saw one of the largest single day mortgage rate increases in years, although there were more than a few caveats. We discussed those in grea...
Wed, Aug 7 2024, 12:04 PM
Some things are surprising, like this video of a small child being chased by a wild pit bull. (Parental discretion may be advised.) What if you’re a l...
Wed, Aug 7 2024, 10:33 AM
Coming into this week, the most logical base case was for a moderate correction in the bond market owing to the strong rally last week and the absence...
Wed, Aug 7 2024, 3:49 AM
A drop in interest rates pushed mortgage applications sharply higher last week although nearly all the gains belonged to refinancing. The Mortgage Ban...
Tue, Aug 6 2024, 4:39 PM
MBS Outperform as Bonds Aggressively Unwind Weekend Rally
There's been no shortage of directional movement o...
Tue, Aug 6 2024, 3:40 PM
In and of itself, today was quite awful for mortgage rates with conventional 30yr fixed rates moving up faster than on almost any other day in the pas...
Tue, Aug 6 2024, 11:23 AM
Global markets are still recovering from yesterday's wild ride. In general, that has involved gains for stocks and losses in bonds. It's also probabl...
Tue, Aug 6 2024, 11:11 AM
“Borrow money from pessimists: They don't expect it back.” We are re-entering conference season, and mortgage conference attendance is all over the ma...
Mon, Aug 5 2024, 5:18 PM
As of Friday, the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate was merely at the lowest levels of 2024. A modest additional drop this morning brought th...
Mon, Aug 5 2024, 5:17 PM
Wild Ride Leaves MBS Weaker After Super Strong Start
Bonds surged to stronger levels overnight amid a global...
Mon, Aug 5 2024, 11:48 AM
This morning I head to Orange County, which has the same population as Arkansas or Nevada, for the CAMP conference where the economy will be discussed...
Mon, Aug 5 2024, 11:33 AM
In the overnight session, the rest of the world decided it was just as concerned about the Fed potentially having waited too long to cut rates as some...
Fri, Aug 2 2024, 5:45 PM
The events of this past week serve as an exclamation point in one of the many sentences that tells the story of the big shift away from the generation...
Fri, Aug 2 2024, 4:03 PM
Bonds Rapidly Repricing Reality After Jobs Report
Yes, today was "just one" jobs report. And yes, there are...
Fri, Aug 2 2024, 12:02 PM
Remember when Intel was “the cat’s meow” in the IT and chip world? Intel is laying off 15,000 to save $10 billion in costs. Big numbers… Sometimes you...
Fri, Aug 2 2024, 11:16 AM
This is one of those weeks that stands a good chance of being looked back up as the moment where the clouds of indecision parted and true trends were ...
Thu, Aug 1 2024, 5:02 PM
Rates Taking an Assumptive Lead-Off Ahead of Jobs Report?
Suddenly, something has changed in the bond market...
Thu, Aug 1 2024, 4:45 PM
It's official! At this point, you'd need to go all the way back to the end of December 2023 to see a lower average rate for a top tier, conventional ...
Thu, Aug 1 2024, 11:46 AM
Thank you to Ira S. who points out that today marks the Spirit Halloween Stores opening. The origins of Halloween go back thousands of years via dozen...
