Today, 10:00 AM
Heading into yesterday's rate hike, recent evidence suggested the longer end of the bond market would appreciate a hike. There was no telling exactly ...
Wed, Sep 16 2026, 6:08 PM
Huge Volatility After Fed, But The Coming Days Will Tell The Story
Bonds ended the day only modestly worse o...
Wed, Sep 16 2026, 2:00 PM
The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 9 12 – 3 0 vote: The Committee decided to maintain rais...
Wed, Sep 16 2026, 10:24 AM
There are perhaps no other Fed announcements in recent memory worthy of more anticipation than the one we'll get today. While some of the recent data ...
Tue, Sep 15 2026, 4:32 PM
Some Signs of Resilience But It's Still Anyone's Game
After several consecutive business days of abject unpl...
Tue, Sep 15 2026, 10:57 AM
With no meaningful econ data on tap today and no high stakes events, bonds are left to watch news headlines and attend to last-minute positioning goal...
Mon, Sep 14 2026, 3:52 PM
Decent Mid-Day Recovery But No Change to Bigger Picture
Monday wasn't too different from last Friday in that...
Mon, Sep 14 2026, 10:38 AM
Selling continues to be the path of least resistance for the bond market. Open interest data from Treasury futures suggests Friday's "short-covering" ...
Fri, Sep 11 2026, 5:29 PM
AM Rally Completely Erased By The Close
This morning's paradoxical rally lasted 30 whole minutes. Bonds turn...
Fri, Sep 11 2026, 9:43 AM
We've been saying for a while that the longer end of the bond market really wants to see the Fed get serious about fighting inflation. This is why yie...
Thu, Sep 10 2026, 4:38 PM
Ugly Snowball Selling Thanks to Oil and Inflation Data
MBS lost nearly a full point by 4pm ET and 10yr yield...
Thu, Sep 10 2026, 9:18 AM
It's been a rough couple of days for the bond market. Yesterday, it was Bessent and the reaction to the Treasury buyback announcement. Today it is an ...
Wed, Sep 9 2026, 3:52 PM
Bonds to Bessent: Challenge Accepted
When the Yellen Treasury rolled out the buyback program in 2023/2024, t...
Wed, Sep 9 2026, 10:30 AM
Not much is going on in terms of scheduled economic events until Thursday and Friday's PPI and CPI reports respectively. Those could be very big deals...
Tue, Sep 8 2026, 3:48 PM
Early Strength Gives Way to Steady Selling
Bonds started the day in fairly good shape with a rally at the op...
Tue, Sep 8 2026, 9:46 AM
To be sure, bonds are still very tuned-in to oil price movement with a high level of moment-to-moment correlation. That dynamic has seen yields trade ...
Fri, Sep 4 2026, 4:53 PM
Surprisingly Light Selling Given The Econ Data
Today's market reaction to the big beat in NFP (162k vs 56k) ...
Fri, Sep 4 2026, 8:42 AM
The jobs count surged higher (162k vs 56k f'cast) in this morning's jobs report. While such wild divergences will have the masses crying foul, and whi...
Thu, Sep 3 2026, 4:24 PM
Still a Resilient Day Despite Afternoon Weakness
The day's most notable development, by far, was the speech ...
Thu, Sep 3 2026, 9:56 AM
There were two separate positive developments for bonds this morning. The most obvious and actionable example was series of comments from Fed's Waller...
Wed, Sep 2 2026, 5:01 PM
Relatively Drama-Free Day
These things happen from time to time. The bond market finally had an uneventful d...
Wed, Sep 2 2026, 10:32 AM
Bonds were initially a hair weaker overnight but reversed course starting around 7am ET as oil prices fell. On the other hand, oil had already begun m...
Tue, Sep 1 2026, 4:50 PM
More War. More Selling
Tuesday was as straightforward as it was unpleasant for the bond market. Mid-day news...
Tue, Sep 1 2026, 9:45 AM
Bond yields broke long term highs yesterday and are moving slightly higher again today. In both cases, we're NOT seeing the same level of intraday cor...
Mon, Aug 31 2026, 5:00 PM
Technically a Breakout, But It Could Have Been Worse
10yr yields closed just under 4.74 at the end of July a...
Mon, Aug 31 2026, 10:13 AM
Bonds were actually a hair stronger at the open, but quickly tanked just after 8am. The nature of said tankage is strongly suggestive of month-end pos...
Fri, Aug 28 2026, 5:22 PM
Hawkish Read on Warsh Prompts Heavy Selling
Jackson Hole speeches are hit and miss when it comes to bond mar...
Fri, Aug 28 2026, 9:43 AM
In an attempt to not force another "Warsh" or "Jackson Hole" headline (because it's a coin flip as to whether it will matter), the calendar offers up ...
Thu, Aug 27 2026, 4:25 PM
Fairly Calm Despite Some Fuel Price Pressure; Warsh on Deck
To reiterate a sentiment from this morning, ther...
Thu, Aug 27 2026, 10:16 AM
While it may end up being a complete non-event, the bond market is counting the hours until Friday's Warsh appearance at Jackson Hole. There's nothing...
Wed, Aug 26 2026, 4:23 PM
Some Pros and Cons in Today's Weakness
Bonds lost ground today, but it wasn't necessarily an unequivocally b...
Wed, Aug 26 2026, 8:47 AM
To be fair, not all of the PCE data was higher than expected, but none of the top line numbers were lower than expected. Core PCE was on target (notab...
Tue, Aug 25 2026, 4:33 PM
Bonds Rally on Peace Deal Hopes
The day ended as it began: with bond yields and oil prices dropping in uniso...
Tue, Aug 25 2026, 10:06 AM
No point in wasting time/words on analysis when cause and effect remains so simple. After news regarding potential progress is peace negotiations, an ...
Mon, Aug 24 2026, 4:56 PM
Tune Out The Noise (Part 2)
Last week, when Treasury announced higher per-operation limits for the buyback p...
Mon, Aug 24 2026, 11:13 AM
Once again, Treasury is out with news about bond buying plans with two officials saying the Treasury General Account (TGA) could be used to fund long-...
Fri, Aug 21 2026, 3:36 PM
Incidental Weakness. Bigger Considerations on The Horizon
Without any data or compelling market movers, bond...
Fri, Aug 21 2026, 9:29 AM
Bonds were a hair stronger overnight and are now a hair weaker at 9:15am ET. They may flip back and forth a few more times before the close. Ultimatel...
Thu, Aug 20 2026, 5:08 PM
Tune Out The Noise
Yesterday's Treasury buyback announcement and today's comments from Bessent make for good...
Thu, Aug 20 2026, 9:34 AM
The correlation between bonds and fuel prices was already creeping back into the picture yesterday. After the Treasury buyback announcement got all of...
Wed, Aug 19 2026, 4:18 PM
AM Rally Ultimately Sticks With Help From Oil
To be clear, most of today's rally is attributable to the news...
Wed, Aug 19 2026, 10:21 AM
At 8:30am, Treasury announced it would double the size of the existing buyback program from $2 to $4 billion for 10-30yr maturities. This sounds like ...
Tue, Aug 18 2026, 4:25 PM
Boring Day But At Least Bonds Turned Green
Tuesday offered remarkably of interest or consequence for the bon...
Tue, Aug 18 2026, 10:26 AM
Big picture momentum has been calmly but clearly skewed toward higher yields for almost 10 months. There have been a few attempts to bounce at technic...
Mon, Aug 17 2026, 3:00 PM
War Headlines Pushing Oil and Yields Higher
Some summertime Mondays are slow and uneventful. Some see brisk ...
Mon, Aug 17 2026, 9:43 AM
It's just another day in post-Iran-war 2026. As such, bonds are taking cues from fuel price volatility which is in turn taking cues from the latest wa...
Fri, Aug 14 2026, 10:01 AM
Based on a few research papers that have attempted to quantify the impact of various economic reports as well as the general consensus among economic ...
Thu, Aug 13 2026, 5:10 PM
Solid Data-Driven Gains
Thursday was a fairly straightforward session for bonds. Yields fell modestly overni...
Thu, Aug 13 2026, 9:51 AM
If nothing else, this morning offers confirmation of just how nervous the market is about inflation. The producer price index barely beat its forecast...
Wed, Aug 12 2026, 5:09 PM
Bonds End Flat After Front-Running The Decent Data
We absolutely hate the term "front-running" because it ca...
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