Today, 4:46 PM
Thursday's Rally Sets Up For a Very Interesting Friday
Of course we had to have a big, interesting move in t...
Today, 10:35 AM
Sometimes we see a distinct shift in momentum on the first day of a new month. This is not one of those times. October 1st picks up where September 30...
Wed, Sep 30 2026, 5:01 PM
Just Another Bad Day For Bonds Without New Justification
10yr yields hit another long-term high today, break...
Wed, Sep 30 2026, 9:34 AM
Core PCE came in at 0.2 vs a 0.3 forecast, and the bond market rallied a bit in response. That said, the unrounded number was .247, which about as hig...
Tue, Sep 29 2026, 4:56 PM
Big Intraday Round Trip For Bonds; Williams Helped
Bonds spent the first half of the day pressing into even ...
Tue, Sep 29 2026, 9:37 AM
Bonds were initially modestly stronger overnight, but mostly sideways in the bigger picture. Right at the 8:20am CME open, bond sellers were clearly w...
Mon, Sep 28 2026, 5:18 PM
Bond-Specific Weakness
Over the past 6 months, as bonds continued to sell off, there was frequently some sol...
Mon, Sep 28 2026, 10:10 AM
Bonds lost ground overnight with traders reacting to Trump's rejection of Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This isn't the first time th...
Fri, Sep 25 2026, 5:19 PM
Respectable Recovery. Is It a Trap?
First thing's first: the parabolic flourish of bond selling of the past ...
Fri, Sep 25 2026, 11:00 AM
10yr yields began the morning in slightly stronger territory, generally following a modest decline in oil prices overnight. That trend actually ran it...
Thu, Sep 24 2026, 5:30 PM
Brutal Day And For The Scariest Reasons
Despite a slightly stronger start and initial promise of resilience ...
Thu, Sep 24 2026, 9:34 AM
Let's not get too excited. After all, today's yields are the second highest in 19 years, but still... this morning's price action is better than a sha...
Wed, Sep 23 2026, 4:33 PM
Why Bonds Sold Off So Severely Today
The only number higher than the amount of bonds sold today is the numbe...
Wed, Sep 23 2026, 10:27 AM
Bonds lost ground overnight with rising oil prices correlating very well with the higher yields. The selling was minimal and yields remained range bou...
Tue, Sep 22 2026, 4:38 PM
Bonds Bounce Back After Mid-Day Stumble
Bonds began the day in stronger territory following overnight report...
Tue, Sep 22 2026, 9:12 AM
Bonds began the overnight session in weaker territory and were mostly sideways until roughly 4:30am. At that time, newswires hit regarding an Iranian ...
Mon, Sep 21 2026, 3:59 PM
Sideways and Slightly Stronger
It was a rather uneventful day with bonds holding sideways in a relatively na...
Mon, Sep 21 2026, 9:59 AM
While the Fed may have requested a majority of the market's attention last week, oil prices were saying "ahem... over here." Now this morning, the pos...
Fri, Sep 18 2026, 5:37 PM
Did Japan Sell Treasuries Today?
Bonds sold off medium big on Friday in a move that offered little by way of...
Fri, Sep 18 2026, 9:33 AM
After Thursday's rather triumphant trading session in the bond market, today's moderate losses may be unpleasant or surprising to some. But they shoul...
Thu, Sep 17 2026, 6:39 PM
Even More Confirmation Throughout The Day
It was heartening to see bonds erase yesterday's losses by the tim...
Thu, Sep 17 2026, 10:00 AM
Heading into yesterday's rate hike, recent evidence suggested the longer end of the bond market would appreciate a hike. There was no telling exactly ...
Wed, Sep 16 2026, 6:08 PM
Huge Volatility After Fed, But The Coming Days Will Tell The Story
Bonds ended the day only modestly worse o...
Wed, Sep 16 2026, 2:00 PM
The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 9 12 – 3 0 vote: The Committee decided to maintain rais...
Wed, Sep 16 2026, 10:24 AM
There are perhaps no other Fed announcements in recent memory worthy of more anticipation than the one we'll get today. While some of the recent data ...
Tue, Sep 15 2026, 4:32 PM
Some Signs of Resilience But It's Still Anyone's Game
After several consecutive business days of abject unpl...
Tue, Sep 15 2026, 10:57 AM
With no meaningful econ data on tap today and no high stakes events, bonds are left to watch news headlines and attend to last-minute positioning goal...
Mon, Sep 14 2026, 3:52 PM
Decent Mid-Day Recovery But No Change to Bigger Picture
Monday wasn't too different from last Friday in that...
Mon, Sep 14 2026, 10:38 AM
Selling continues to be the path of least resistance for the bond market. Open interest data from Treasury futures suggests Friday's "short-covering" ...
Fri, Sep 11 2026, 5:29 PM
AM Rally Completely Erased By The Close
This morning's paradoxical rally lasted 30 whole minutes. Bonds turn...
Fri, Sep 11 2026, 9:43 AM
We've been saying for a while that the longer end of the bond market really wants to see the Fed get serious about fighting inflation. This is why yie...
Thu, Sep 10 2026, 4:38 PM
Ugly Snowball Selling Thanks to Oil and Inflation Data
MBS lost nearly a full point by 4pm ET and 10yr yield...
Thu, Sep 10 2026, 9:18 AM
It's been a rough couple of days for the bond market. Yesterday, it was Bessent and the reaction to the Treasury buyback announcement. Today it is an ...
Wed, Sep 9 2026, 3:52 PM
Bonds to Bessent: Challenge Accepted
When the Yellen Treasury rolled out the buyback program in 2023/2024, t...
Wed, Sep 9 2026, 10:30 AM
Not much is going on in terms of scheduled economic events until Thursday and Friday's PPI and CPI reports respectively. Those could be very big deals...
Tue, Sep 8 2026, 3:48 PM
Early Strength Gives Way to Steady Selling
Bonds started the day in fairly good shape with a rally at the op...
Tue, Sep 8 2026, 9:46 AM
To be sure, bonds are still very tuned-in to oil price movement with a high level of moment-to-moment correlation. That dynamic has seen yields trade ...
Fri, Sep 4 2026, 4:53 PM
Surprisingly Light Selling Given The Econ Data
Today's market reaction to the big beat in NFP (162k vs 56k) ...
Fri, Sep 4 2026, 8:42 AM
The jobs count surged higher (162k vs 56k f'cast) in this morning's jobs report. While such wild divergences will have the masses crying foul, and whi...
Thu, Sep 3 2026, 4:24 PM
Still a Resilient Day Despite Afternoon Weakness
The day's most notable development, by far, was the speech ...
Thu, Sep 3 2026, 9:56 AM
There were two separate positive developments for bonds this morning. The most obvious and actionable example was series of comments from Fed's Waller...
Wed, Sep 2 2026, 5:01 PM
Relatively Drama-Free Day
These things happen from time to time. The bond market finally had an uneventful d...
Wed, Sep 2 2026, 10:32 AM
Bonds were initially a hair weaker overnight but reversed course starting around 7am ET as oil prices fell. On the other hand, oil had already begun m...
Tue, Sep 1 2026, 4:50 PM
More War. More Selling
Tuesday was as straightforward as it was unpleasant for the bond market. Mid-day news...
Tue, Sep 1 2026, 9:45 AM
Bond yields broke long term highs yesterday and are moving slightly higher again today. In both cases, we're NOT seeing the same level of intraday cor...
Mon, Aug 31 2026, 5:00 PM
Technically a Breakout, But It Could Have Been Worse
10yr yields closed just under 4.74 at the end of July a...
Mon, Aug 31 2026, 10:13 AM
Bonds were actually a hair stronger at the open, but quickly tanked just after 8am. The nature of said tankage is strongly suggestive of month-end pos...
Fri, Aug 28 2026, 5:22 PM
Hawkish Read on Warsh Prompts Heavy Selling
Jackson Hole speeches are hit and miss when it comes to bond mar...
Fri, Aug 28 2026, 9:43 AM
In an attempt to not force another "Warsh" or "Jackson Hole" headline (because it's a coin flip as to whether it will matter), the calendar offers up ...
Thu, Aug 27 2026, 4:25 PM
Fairly Calm Despite Some Fuel Price Pressure; Warsh on Deck
To reiterate a sentiment from this morning, ther...
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