Wed, Nov 6 2024, 5:29 PM
Does The Fed Still Matter?
Bonds sold off overnight as the reality of Trump's victory became apparent. Trad...
Wed, Nov 6 2024, 9:45 AM
Heading into the election, we knew the bond market was losing ground in concert with improving odds of a Trump victory and red sweep. After being sur...
Tue, Nov 5 2024, 4:54 PM
Bonds Brace For Election Results
It was an interesting round trip for the bond market today as overnight wea...
Tue, Nov 5 2024, 11:08 AM
Last week could easily have left us with the impression that the bond market's love affair with economic data was put on hold until after the election...
Mon, Nov 4 2024, 4:13 PM
Election Remains Dominant Source of Volatility
While the average day of the past few weeks has involved elec...
Mon, Nov 4 2024, 10:08 AM
Up until last Friday, 10yr Treasury yields had consistently closed at 4.27-4.28 last week. Now this morning, we're at 4.27-4.28 again. That's the sh...
Fri, Nov 1 2024, 5:07 PM
Why Bonds Tanked Despite Super Low NFP
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) came in at 12k versus a median forecast of 113...
Fri, Nov 1 2024, 10:06 AM
When the median forecast for today's jobs report began circulating, many a market watcher felt that the 113k forecast was too low compared to the 254k...
Thu, Oct 31 2024, 4:53 PM
Will Jobs Data Finally Get Bond Market's Attention?
It's been a weird week so far with a crazy combination o...
Thu, Oct 31 2024, 12:16 PM
If it weren't for the surge of volume in Treasuries lining up perfectly with economic report release times, one might wonder if traders even care that...
Wed, Oct 30 2024, 4:35 PM
Decent Showing in Light of Stronger Data
Bonds lost ground today, but not as much as one might expect given ...
Wed, Oct 30 2024, 11:26 AM
It's been an interesting morning for the bond market so far. ADP employment came in much stronger than expected. 15 minutes later, Q3 GDP was slight...
Tue, Oct 29 2024, 4:40 PM
Tue, Oct 29 2024, 10:18 AM
As we've noted on many occasions in the past few years, JOLTS (the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) used to be a non-event in terms of economic...
Mon, Oct 28 2024, 5:16 PM
Bonds Doing What Bonds Do
Another week, another chance for bonds to do the only thing it seems like they kno...
Mon, Oct 28 2024, 10:40 AM
After 2 frustrating weeks spent moving toward higher yields without any major justification from the economic data, things are about to change. From ...
Fri, Oct 25 2024, 3:40 PM
Stronger Start, Weaker Finish
Bonds had a fine morning with overnight gains bringing yields in line with the...
Fri, Oct 25 2024, 11:17 AM
Granted, we were by no means looking for big things from this morning's Durable Goods data, but somehow it still managed to underwhelm. That's not sa...
Thu, Oct 24 2024, 4:56 PM
Better Balance, Finally
In the context of the first 3 days of the week, bonds pulled off a miracle today. M...
Thu, Oct 24 2024, 10:31 AM
Thursday morning brought the week's only arguably important economic data in the form of Jobless Claims and S&P's PMIs. Both have a decent track reco...
Wed, Oct 23 2024, 4:35 PM
Why Would Rates Care About a One-Party Sweep?
Our morning commentary resulted in widespread questions regard...
Wed, Oct 23 2024, 10:13 AM
For those of you who already feel like you fully understand the message in Tuesday's recap, the next few days and weeks might get a little repetitive,...
Tue, Oct 22 2024, 4:35 PM
Much Calmer, But Risks Remain
Bonds had a significantly calmer day in terms of day-over-day change. In fact...
Tue, Oct 22 2024, 10:30 AM
Monday was frustrating for the bond market. It was a medium large sell-off that would have made more sense as a flat, forgettable Monday. The only th...
Mon, Oct 21 2024, 4:48 PM
Ratio of Weakness to Confirmed Explanations is Off The Charts
Every year there are a few days where bonds mo...
Mon, Oct 21 2024, 12:16 PM
First off, there's no great explanation for the extent to which bonds are losing ground this morning. These days happen occasionally. Sometimes an e...
Fri, Oct 18 2024, 4:03 PM
Waiting Game Returns With Straightforward, Sleepy Friday
Bonds were technically a hair weaker in the overnig...
Fri, Oct 18 2024, 11:02 AM
While the recent trend has been unpleasant for the bond market, at least it's logical. Apart from some uncertainty related to the election and forthc...
Thu, Oct 17 2024, 5:27 PM
Fairly Big Sell-Off, But Last Week's Range is Intact
Bonds dealt with a trifecta of unfriendly economic data...
Thu, Oct 17 2024, 11:53 AM
Ever since last Thursday's econ data failed to cause a stir in financial markets, we knew we'd be waiting until today for big, data-driven volatility ...
Wed, Oct 16 2024, 4:24 PM
Thursday Morning is This Week's Biggest Volatility Risk
While there was certainly a bit of an upward drift i...
Wed, Oct 16 2024, 10:48 AM
The market was hungry for data before the jobs report week and has been even hungrier since then. Unfortunately, there haven't been many compelling r...
Tue, Oct 15 2024, 4:34 PM
Uneventful Day, But That's a Victory These Days
Last week's bond market action offered some glimmers of hope...
Tue, Oct 15 2024, 9:36 AM
Bonds moved into stronger territory over the 3 day weekend in a move largely attributed to de-escalation in the Middle East and the sharp drop in oil ...
Fri, Oct 11 2024, 3:58 PM
Boring Week and Next Week Isn't Much More Promising
It's always a bit jarring to go from something like last...
Fri, Oct 11 2024, 11:14 AM
When it comes to economic data with any real significance, today only offered two reports: PPI and Consumer Sentiment. Neither have an especially stu...
Thu, Oct 10 2024, 4:53 PM
Bonds Turn Green Despite Plenty of Volatility
It was touch and go in the mid-day hours as early stability (m...
Thu, Oct 10 2024, 11:34 AM
At first glance, it looks as if the bond market will make it through Thursday morning without being too worse for the wear. When the monthly core CPI...
Wed, Oct 9 2024, 3:45 PM
Don't Expect Salvation From CPI
Bonds lost a bit of ground on Wednesday with Treasuries having a far rougher...
Wed, Oct 9 2024, 10:09 AM
This week's economic calendar is choked with Fed speeches and most of them are happening today. Collectively, those will be more relevant than the re...
Tue, Oct 8 2024, 4:31 PM
Worst is Over. Now What?
Good things happened in the bond market on Tuesday. There was a bit of a scare in ...
Tue, Oct 8 2024, 11:13 AM
Friday's NFP gave the bond market a solid whack, sending yields quickly higher. Momentum remained intact over the weekend and through Monday. Overse...
Mon, Oct 7 2024, 4:08 PM
Bonds Undergoing a Bit of a Reset
3 weeks ago, the Fed voted to cut rates by 0.50%. Traders had rushed to g...
Mon, Oct 7 2024, 10:27 AM
Here's a repeat of the lock/float considerations posted on Friday after the jobs report: "Friday's strong jobs report and resulting bond market rout c...
Fri, Oct 4 2024, 4:45 PM
Who Lied About Jobs Numbers?
Unpleasant day for the bond market with jobs crushing forecasts and being revis...
Fri, Oct 4 2024, 11:32 AM
It is a very simple day for the bond market. There was a ton of anticipation for today's jobs report after the past two iterations raised concerns ab...
Thu, Oct 3 2024, 5:14 PM
ISM Makes For Negative NFP Lead-Off
If the bond market has to digest an ISM Services report that is much str...
Thu, Oct 3 2024, 9:46 AM
There are some labor market reports that cause some concern about a weaker job market. And while Jobless Claims is often thought to be a leading indi...
Wed, Oct 2 2024, 4:03 PM
Wednesday's Market Movement Raises Stakes for Friday
There are times when the bond market seems not to care ...
Wed, Oct 2 2024, 12:00 PM
The Fed's been saying it for several months and the market has been trading it accordingly for just as long: the focus has clearly shifted away from i...