Mon, Jan 26 2026, 3:59 PM
Small, Steady Gains and MBS Outperformance
It was a relatively quiet Monday for the bond market, but not a b...
Mon, Jan 26 2026, 9:05 AM
This week's only marquee calendar event is Wednesday's Fed announcement, and it's unclear what the Fed could possibly do or say to inspire much of a r...
Fri, Jan 23 2026, 4:45 PM
Uneventful Conclusion to a Volatile Week
Bonds put in a decent day on Friday, ultimately getting back into p...
Fri, Jan 23 2026, 9:41 AM
Bonds rallied modestly in the overnight session. There were no notable spikes in volume or volatility--just a gradual grind that took 10yr yields roug...
Thu, Jan 22 2026, 4:07 PM
Bonds Erase Most of The Overnight Weakness
Thursday could be viewed two ways. On one hand, bonds lost ground...
Thu, Jan 22 2026, 9:40 AM
Bonds found a bid along with stocks yesterday afternoon after Trump announced a "framework of a deal" on Greenland. Markets were much less interested...
Wed, Jan 21 2026, 3:45 PM
Bonds Recovering a Bit After "Framework of a Deal" on Greenland
Geopolitics have been front and center for f...
Wed, Jan 21 2026, 10:47 AM
With mortgage rates right where they were 2 weeks ago, things could be worse. But after rising 20bps from last week's lows, things could also certainl...
Tue, Jan 20 2026, 4:52 PM
Range Breakout Intensifies. Chicken or Egg?
After months spent observing the same old range in the bond mark...
Tue, Jan 20 2026, 9:36 AM
As Trump's Greenland aspirations continue unabated, measurable fallout is increasing. Part of the strategy is increased tariffs. EU is also planning/t...
Fri, Jan 16 2026, 4:28 PM
10yr Yields Finally Break The Range
Despite an absence of market movers on the calendar, bonds found a reaso...
Fri, Jan 16 2026, 10:38 AM
Last week reinforced the lesson anything can happen in the bond market--even with less than an hour left on an otherwise uneventful day. There's no wa...
Thu, Jan 15 2026, 4:32 PM
Data-Driven Weakness
It was a reasonably straightforward day for the bond market. Trading was flat overnight...
Thu, Jan 15 2026, 8:40 AM
The weekly jobless claims data (not to be confused with the big monthly jobs report) is hit and miss when it comes to its propensity to move the bond ...
Wed, Jan 14 2026, 3:57 PM
Some Asymmetric Risk When it Comes to Locking vs Floating
Bonds improved today mostly in response to heavy s...
Wed, Jan 14 2026, 8:58 AM
10yr Treasury futures volumes spiked about 5 times higher in the 2 minutes following yesterday's CPI than in the 2 minutes following this morning's PP...
Tue, Jan 13 2026, 4:46 PM
CPI Helped Bonds Avoid Losing Ground
Bonds began the day in slightly weaker territory and managed to flip in...
Tue, Jan 13 2026, 10:00 AM
CPI came out just a bit lower than expected with the monthly core at 0.2 vs 0.3 and annual core at 2.6 vs 2.7. The unrounded numbers were closer to f...
Mon, Jan 12 2026, 4:16 PM
Incidental Weakness Ahead of CPI Data
Bonds were marginally weaker on Monday with no obvious scapegoats in s...
Mon, Jan 12 2026, 10:29 AM
The most important-sounding news over the weekend was last night's subpoena of Fed Chair Powell over statements made to congress regarding the Fed's b...
Fri, Jan 9 2026, 4:16 PM
Wild Ride For MBS as Traders Digest New Developments
We may have been looking to the jobs report as this wee...
Fri, Jan 9 2026, 11:12 AM
On Thursday afternoon with less than an hour left to trade, Trump announced he would be directing his representatives to buy $200bln in mortgage-backe...
Fri, Jan 9 2026, 8:40 AM
The jobs report came out mixed with payrolls falling 10k short of the 60k forecast and the unemployment rate ticking down to 4.4% vs a 4.5% forecast. ...
Thu, Jan 8 2026, 4:27 PM
Mostly Quiet Ahead of Friday's Jobs Report
Bonds lost a bit of ground on Thursday with most of the weakness ...
Thu, Jan 8 2026, 9:23 AM
US bonds have been taking clear cues from Europe in overnight trading recently. Today's example involved a 3bp sell-off on both sides of the Atlantic....
Wed, Jan 7 2026, 5:02 PM
Ultimately Underwhelming Despite Seemingly Significant Data
There was certainly the potential for volatility...
Wed, Jan 7 2026, 8:45 AM
Bonds rallied steadily overnight with more of the gains aligning with a data-driven bond rally in Europe. The overnight move brought 10yr yields rough...
Tue, Jan 6 2026, 4:25 PM
Ending Near Unchanged Levels After Early Head Fake
Trading volumes confirm that bonds are 100% back in actio...
Tue, Jan 6 2026, 9:54 AM
A range trading theme has dominated the bond market since the most recent high yield on December 10th and the most recent low the following day. 100% ...
Mon, Jan 5 2026, 4:19 PM
Bonds Improve Back to Pre-Holiday Levels
While there was some relevant econ data today (ISM Manufacturing), ...
Mon, Jan 5 2026, 10:20 AM
By 10am ET, today's trading volume has already surpassed that seen on December 23rd and 26th (both full trading days)--proof positive that the market ...
Fri, Jan 2 2026, 3:52 PM
Modest Incidental Weakness
Despite a bit of incidental selling today, the bond market has survived the winte...
Fri, Jan 2 2026, 10:47 AM
Friday is merely a day to be watched in case it misbehaves. The econ calendar is essentially empty (just S&P manufacturing PMI), overnight volatility ...
Wed, Dec 31 2025, 1:24 PM
Token Year-End Volatility
Wednesday's shortened session offered more excitement than the first two days of t...
Wed, Dec 31 2025, 8:56 AM
Human traders may be extremely underrepresented on today's half-day trading session, but the robots/algos know what to do with a sub-200k Jobless Clai...
Tue, Dec 30 2025, 3:23 PM
Modest Recovery From Morning Weakness
Bonds were slightly weaker this morning in a move that looked like it ...
Tue, Dec 30 2025, 10:58 AM
If we turn up the magnification on our market-watching microscopes, it may seem like something important happened in the bond market overnight. 10yr y...
Mon, Dec 29 2025, 4:26 PM
Uneventful And Slightly Stronger
Although volumes picked up a bit versus Friday, no one would confuse the la...
Mon, Dec 29 2025, 10:26 AM
In addition to this week's holiday closure (early close Wednesday, fully closed Thursday), the econ calendar is also lacking in terms of potential so...
Fri, Dec 26 2025, 3:17 PM
Bonds End Unchanged After Another Quiet Session
This is essentially placeholder commentary to serve as Frida...
Fri, Dec 26 2025, 10:58 AM
Although the bond market is technically open today, it might as well not be. Late year holidays (Thanksgiving, X-mas, New Year) depress volume and liq...
Wed, Dec 24 2025, 1:18 PM
Decent Gains With Some Help From 7yr Auction
You know it's a holiday with an early closure if we're talking ...
Wed, Dec 24 2025, 9:26 AM
While many government employees have the day off today and Friday, these are not new, official Federal Holidays. As such, the bond market is open on t...
Tue, Dec 23 2025, 4:43 PM
Stunning Display of Holiday Trading Weirdness
GDP for Q3 may be ancient history as far as econ data goes, bu...
Tue, Dec 23 2025, 9:54 AM
We've spent the past several days reiterating and lamenting the onset of the holiday trading doldrums--a time of year that sees vastly lower volumes/l...
Mon, Dec 22 2025, 3:57 PM
Range-Bound Cruise Control, PM Edition
Bonds came into the domestic session at slightly weaker levels and he...
Mon, Dec 22 2025, 10:34 AM
2025 is effectively over when it comes to meaningful shifts in the bond market. The coming days will be so heavily-affected by light volume/liquidity ...
Fri, Dec 19 2025, 4:33 PM
Bond Market in Holiday Mode
Holiday mode is impossible to clearly define when it comes to its impact on the ...
Fri, Dec 19 2025, 10:12 AM
There was a fair amount of momentum among financial news sources regarding the potential significance of last night's Bank of Japan (BOJ) announcement...
Thu, Dec 18 2025, 4:53 PM
Limited Follow-Through After Shockingly Big Miss
If you told the average trader that today's core CPI would ...
MBS Market Alerts
