Wed, Mar 18 2026, 5:04 PM
Bonds Weren't Prepared For Fed's Inflation Fears
If anything, you'd think the market would have been pricing...
Wed, Mar 18 2026, 2:00 PM
Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has sh...
Wed, Mar 18 2026, 9:14 AM
The Producer Price Index (PPI) was this morning's only big ticket econ data and calling it "big ticket" is a bit of a stretch. PPI often passes withou...
Tue, Mar 17 2026, 4:07 PM
Sleepy Pre-Fed Day, But Slightly Stronger
Bonds did something they haven't done in almost 3 weeks today. The...
Tue, Mar 17 2026, 10:45 AM
Until the end of the Iran war, bond traders are keeping oil prices on their screens and comparing oil price movement against bond market movement as t...
Mon, Mar 16 2026, 3:24 PM
Simple, Strong Correlation With Oil Leaves Yields Lower
There's no sense in overcomplicating today's trading...
Mon, Mar 16 2026, 10:38 AM
With no massive escalation in Iran over the weekend, oil prices trickled only modestly higher during Asian trading hours and began to recover during E...
Fri, Mar 13 2026, 4:40 PM
Just a Bit More Selling to End The Week
Nothing much new happened in the bond market today and that's not gr...
Fri, Mar 13 2026, 9:07 AM
There's a high bar for econ data to have any impact on bonds these days and that's especially true of inflation reports like this morning's PCE. Thank...
Thu, Mar 12 2026, 4:38 PM
War Protest: Bond Market Edition
There's no quicker way to classify the movement we've seen over the past 2 ...
Thu, Mar 12 2026, 11:30 AM
The bond market doesn't look like it can catch a break as long as war persists in Iran. If it's not oil, it's fertilizer, nat gas, military spending, ...
Wed, Mar 11 2026, 5:10 PM
General Selling Spree Continues
It hasn't exactly been perfectly linear, but the month of March has generall...
Wed, Mar 11 2026, 9:36 AM
There was a very high bar for today's CPI to cause any serious market reaction due to all the new inflationary impulses that may be created by record ...
Tue, Mar 10 2026, 4:21 PM
Afternoon Weakness in Bonds Despite Lower Oil Prices. Will CPI Matter?
Days like today are a problem for a "...
Tue, Mar 10 2026, 9:07 AM
One major milestone in anyone's market-watching journey is when they learn that "the close" (close of business, closing bell, etc.) means different th...
Mon, Mar 9 2026, 2:55 PM
Big Round Trip in Oil Prices and Bond Yields
There was no denying the spillover from oil price volatility to...
Mon, Mar 9 2026, 8:45 AM
Since the outbreak of the military operation in Iran, there have been varying levels of spillover from rising oil prices to the bond market. There hav...
Fri, Mar 6 2026, 4:39 PM
Oil Impact Ultimately Shunned in Favor of Jobs Report Implications
It was a super interesting day for the bo...
Fri, Mar 6 2026, 9:29 AM
It's shaping up to be a frustrating day market watchers. Decades of experience tells us that bonds should rally fairly sharply on a day where nonfarm ...
Thu, Mar 5 2026, 3:32 PM
Dueling Narrative Leave Yields Higher Ahead of Jobs Report
In the overnight session yields followed oil pric...
Thu, Mar 5 2026, 9:24 AM
The bond market has already shown an indifference to this week's econ data as a market mover (even though we expect that to change with tomorrow's job...
Wed, Mar 4 2026, 8:41 AM
After 2 days of much higher volatility at the open, bonds are roughly unchanged so far this morning and the overnight session was noticeably calmer. T...
Tue, Mar 3 2026, 4:36 PM
Bonds Erase Most of The AM Losses
The bond market was visibly pulled in two directions on Tuesday. This play...
Tue, Mar 3 2026, 9:47 AM
Bonds sold off again overnight with 10yr yields now challenging the 4.10% technical level in early trading. MBS are down another 3/8ths, roughly. And ...
Mon, Mar 2 2026, 3:41 PM
Big Bad Day For Bonds. What's Next?
Bonds sold off early and aggressively on Monday in a move that most onlo...
Mon, Mar 2 2026, 9:33 AM
Spoiler alert: it's not Iran. And this morning's yields are the 2nd lowest in more than 3 months behind last Friday. Last Friday was also a month-end ...
Fri, Feb 27 2026, 4:24 PM
Bonds Cap Stellar Week/Month With Strongest Close
Bonds ended the week/month at their strongest levels with ...
Fri, Feb 27 2026, 9:29 AM
We'd already discussed the fact that PPI has fallen by the wayside as a relevant market mover for bonds despite one or two instances of relevance near...
Thu, Feb 26 2026, 4:16 PM
Knock Knock Knockin' on 10yr Floor
Sometimes, it's a shame that the 7yr Treasury isn't the most popular bond...
Thu, Feb 26 2026, 10:37 AM
This is the problem with narrow trading ranges. Yesterday, yields were safely inside a narrow range near long-term lows. Today, they're challenging th...
Wed, Feb 25 2026, 4:45 PM
In-Range PM Weakness
Viewed under a microscope, it may have seemed like today was a relatively volatile sess...
Wed, Feb 25 2026, 9:42 AM
Some days, there's a lot to say about what's going on in the bond market. Other days are like today. Analysts have to lean on themes like trading rang...
Tue, Feb 24 2026, 4:15 PM
Calmly Holding in Super Strong Territory
MBS may not be quite as high as they were yesterday, but in the big...
Tue, Feb 24 2026, 9:31 AM
Volume and volatility is lower this morning compared to yesterday, but the same theme of risk aversion looks to be in play, probably. Why "probably?"...
Mon, Feb 23 2026, 3:09 PM
General Risk Aversion Trade Helping Bonds
Bonds began the day in just barely stronger territory but continue...
Mon, Feb 23 2026, 10:51 AM
Bonds are starting the new week in slightly stronger territory, but still well inside the prevailing trading range. There were no standout market move...
Fri, Feb 20 2026, 4:44 PM
Tariff Ruling Tried (And Failed) to Steal The Show
If you were told ahead of time that Friday morning would ...
Fri, Feb 20 2026, 9:25 AM
At the time of this writing, there are still a few econ reports left on deck, but the big ones are out. GDP missed big (1.4 vs 3.0), but largely for n...
Thu, Feb 19 2026, 4:36 PM
Bonds Punt. Focus Turns to Friday's Econ Data
Bonds spent the past 2 days pushing back toward slightly highe...
Thu, Feb 19 2026, 8:53 AM
Yesterday's end-of-day recap bore the title "Half-Hearted Correction Continues." It turns out that should have been the title for this morning's comme...
Wed, Feb 18 2026, 4:22 PM
Half-Hearted Correction Continues
Don't call it a correction. Yields may have rallied 30bps in just over a ...
Wed, Feb 18 2026, 11:06 AM
Any time the 10yr Treasury yield approaches--but fails to break--a number ending in .50 or .00, the analytical community is guaranteed to be discussin...
Tue, Feb 17 2026, 4:27 PM
Calm Start Even if Modestly Weaker
The day before and/or after a 3-day weekend is more volatile than the ave...
Tue, Feb 17 2026, 11:25 AM
At the start of the domestic session, bonds had actually managed to build on last week's impressive gains, even if only by a few bps. That was a bit o...
Fri, Feb 13 2026, 4:13 PM
Bonds Close Out Epic Week of Resilience With Friendly Data
Friday was a logically friendly day thanks to sli...
Fri, Feb 13 2026, 9:55 AM
CPI came in just a hair below forecasts at the headline level and right in line with forecasts at the core level (unrounded .295 vs .300). Shelter com...
Thu, Feb 12 2026, 4:16 PM
Yields Magically and Mysteriously Sink to Lowest Levels in 2 Months.
At the 3pm CME close, 10yr yields were ...
Thu, Feb 12 2026, 9:07 AM
When the jobs report makes a big statement, bonds are more likely to exhibit elevated momentum and volatility in the following days. In more than a fe...
Wed, Feb 11 2026, 4:09 PM
Stunning Resilience
One could argue that our bar is set too low if we view today's bond market resilience as...
Wed, Feb 11 2026, 9:48 AM
Nearly an hour after this morning's surprisingly strong jobs report, 10yr yields are only 4.4bps higher at 4.19%. On a normal day, 4.4bps might be a f...
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