Thu, Sep 12 2024, 4:34 PM
Modest Resistance, But No Big Bad Correction
Unless Friday's Consumer Sentiment data manages to surprise in ...
Thu, Sep 12 2024, 10:43 AM
Thursday brings this week's last opportunity for the market to react to moderately important economic data before next week's Fed announcement. So fa...
Wed, Sep 11 2024, 3:42 PM
Does Today's Inflation Data Change Anything?
Bonds initially sold off following the higher-than-expected cor...
Wed, Sep 11 2024, 11:37 AM
Heading into today's CPI data, there were valid doubts about the data's role as one of the two biggest market movers (the jobs report being the other)...
Tue, Sep 10 2024, 4:26 PM
Will The Market Still Care About CPI?
Ask anyone who's been following the rate market for many years what th...
Tue, Sep 10 2024, 10:36 AM
The new week is off to a nice, anti-climactic start. Monday morning's yields were slightly higher at first but fell into stronger territory by mid da...
Mon, Sep 9 2024, 4:15 PM
Holding Last Week's Gains as Bonds Wait For Actionable Info
Monday was an anticlimactic session relative to ...
Mon, Sep 9 2024, 11:21 AM
Despite heavy volume and volatility, Friday's trading session managed to conclude in roughly sideways territory. The new week is starting off on a ca...
Fri, Sep 6 2024, 5:33 PM
Wild Ride on Jobs Day as Fed Speakers Steal The Show
We came into jobs report day expecting some clarity on ...
Fri, Sep 6 2024, 10:55 AM
At first glance, this morning's jobs report suggested a modest but clearly-defined increase in the likelihood of a 50bp rate cut from the Fed in 2 wee...
Thu, Sep 5 2024, 4:54 PM
Jobs Data Poised to Influence Size of The Upcoming Rate Cut
Thursday ended up being fairly uneventful for bo...
Thu, Sep 5 2024, 12:03 PM
Thursday morning had the highest concentration of economic reports so far this week with ADP, Challenger, Claims, and two flavors of Services PMI data...
Wed, Sep 4 2024, 4:20 PM
Persistent Rally After Data. More Data Ahead
Wednesday ended up being almost exclusively about the Job Openi...
Wed, Sep 4 2024, 12:09 PM
Market movement continues suggesting increased focus on labor-related economic data. This morning's JOLTS (job openings and labor turnover survey) is...
Tue, Sep 3 2024, 4:03 PM
No Major Reaction to Data, But Data Remains Relevant
As with most "first weeks of the month," this one has p...
Tue, Sep 3 2024, 10:28 AM
Remember last Friday? It was sort of "weird" due to enigmatic selling pressure in the bond market. Yields stretched up to the highest levels in more ...
Fri, Aug 30 2024, 4:31 PM
Month-End Volatility, But No Bearing on Bigger Picture
It was a deceptively interesting Friday for the bond ...
Fri, Aug 30 2024, 9:14 AM
This morning's PCE inflation data was in line with expectations calling for a core monthly reading of 0.2%. In fact, the unrounded number was 0.16+ w...
Thu, Aug 29 2024, 5:00 PM
A Clear Reaction to Data Without Any Major Drama
After this morning's initial reaction to Initial Jobless Cl...
Thu, Aug 29 2024, 10:25 AM
There was a solid decade between 2010 and 2020 where weekly Jobless Claims data was completely inconsequential. The labor market had taken the hit fr...
Wed, Aug 28 2024, 4:09 PM
Without Major Data, Bonds Remain Quiet
While it makes riveting analysis a challenge, it's not necessarily a ...
Wed, Aug 28 2024, 11:22 AM
It would have been hard for the present week to be any more of a boring, sideways grind than the previous week, but so far, so boring! Why do we say ...
Tue, Aug 27 2024, 5:12 PM
MBS Continue to Outperform, Sorta
Despite a nice little rally from weaker opening levels to stronger closing...
Tue, Aug 27 2024, 10:13 AM
Bonds are under a bit of pressure this morning with a modest extension of weakness that began in European trading hours. While this morning's selling...
Mon, Aug 26 2024, 5:00 PM
Uneventful Monday Despite AM Volatility
Durable goods data made for a semblance of volatility this morning, ...
Mon, Aug 26 2024, 9:10 AM
The Durable Goods report is a somewhat inconsistent report in terms of its ability to influence the bond market. There are definitely examples of big...
Fri, Aug 23 2024, 4:25 PM
Closing Near Week's Best Levels
If Friday was going to offer any example of scheduled events causing movemen...
Fri, Aug 23 2024, 10:19 AM
It's been a slow, uneventful week so far in terms of scheduled events. Even though we certainly saw some elevated volume and volatility over the past...
Thu, Aug 22 2024, 5:08 PM
It May Have Seemed Like a Bad Day, But...
Ever since topping out last Thursday morning, bonds have been stea...
Thu, Aug 22 2024, 10:20 AM
There is an ongoing bias toward better buying and lower yields in the bond market in spite of a string of decent economic reports in the past week. J...
Wed, Aug 21 2024, 4:19 PM
Bonds Snooze Through Fed Minutes
At first glance, and based on conventional wisdom, today's most relevant ca...
Wed, Aug 21 2024, 12:18 PM
Today brought the release of the first benchmark revision to the payroll data through March 2024. It caused widespread confusion both before and afte...
Tue, Aug 20 2024, 4:17 PM
What's Up With 'Secret' Jobs Revisions?
When it was limited to social media, it was one thing, but alarming headlines regarding seemingly under-...
Tue, Aug 20 2024, 10:09 AM
While there will certainly be some excitement at some point in the future (possibly even the near future), and while we are already well acquainted wi...
Mon, Aug 19 2024, 3:52 PM
Uneventful Summertime Monday
Monday started slow and stayed slow throughout. MBS held well within the narro...
Mon, Aug 19 2024, 11:07 AM
In past examples of imminent shifts in Fed policy, the late August Jackson Hole symposium has been a relevant--and sometimes substantial--market mover...
Fri, Aug 16 2024, 5:54 PM
Calmer Week, But Are Storms Brewing?
By the time this week's CPI data came in as expected, it was highly unl...
Fri, Aug 16 2024, 12:21 PM
At first glance, the first half of the trading day has been volatile for the bond market, but at second glance, trading levels are just returning in l...
Thu, Aug 15 2024, 4:29 PM
Jobless Claims May Have Hit Bonds Harder Than Retail Sales
Hot take, and one that's subject to debate, depen...
Thu, Aug 15 2024, 10:15 AM
It's a surprisingly straightforward morning for the bond market. The two most important economic reports did exactly the opposite of what bond bulls ...
Wed, Aug 14 2024, 5:06 PM
Uncommonly Flat CPI Reaction
Over the past year, the average CPI day can be picked out on a chart of daily b...
Wed, Aug 14 2024, 11:51 AM
These things happen... While it's true that CPI is one of the two hardest-hitting economic reports (the other being the jobs report), it's also true ...
Tue, Aug 13 2024, 4:40 PM
PPI Drives Decent Rally; But CPI Packs a Bigger Punch
This morning's core m/m Producer Price Index hit 0.0% ...
Tue, Aug 13 2024, 8:41 AM
Although last month's CPI data was well-received by the bond market for coming in below expectations and showing a notable drop in the shelter compone...
Mon, Aug 12 2024, 4:48 PM
Uneventful Monday With Modest Gains
From a volume standpoint, both Friday and today were very light. This i...
Mon, Aug 12 2024, 11:43 AM
Summertime Fridays and Mondays are prone to low volumes--especially when they are virtually data-free, as is the case to begin the new week. The pere...
Fri, Aug 9 2024, 5:25 PM
Straightforward, Uneventful Session Caps The Correction
Bonds have been in correction mode for almost the en...
Fri, Aug 9 2024, 11:00 AM
Now that it's essentially over, it's easy to label this week as a quintessential consolidation and/or modest correction. In fact, even before it bega...
Thu, Aug 8 2024, 3:06 PM
Why Jobless Claims Data Moved Markets More Than Normal
Weekly jobless claims data is far from irrelevant, bu...
Thu, Aug 8 2024, 10:58 AM
"Crushed" is likely too harsh a term for what we're seeing this morning, but were it not for Monday morning's paradigm stretching reversal, this morni...
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