Today, 10:30 AM
Monday was frustrating for the bond market. It was a medium large sell-off that would have made more sense as a flat, forgettable Monday. The only th...
Mon, Oct 21 2024, 4:48 PM
Ratio of Weakness to Confirmed Explanations is Off The Charts
Every year there are a few days where bonds mo...
Mon, Oct 21 2024, 12:16 PM
First off, there's no great explanation for the extent to which bonds are losing ground this morning. These days happen occasionally. Sometimes an e...
Fri, Oct 18 2024, 4:03 PM
Waiting Game Returns With Straightforward, Sleepy Friday
Bonds were technically a hair weaker in the overnig...
Fri, Oct 18 2024, 11:02 AM
While the recent trend has been unpleasant for the bond market, at least it's logical. Apart from some uncertainty related to the election and forthc...
Thu, Oct 17 2024, 5:27 PM
Fairly Big Sell-Off, But Last Week's Range is Intact
Bonds dealt with a trifecta of unfriendly economic data...
Thu, Oct 17 2024, 11:53 AM
Ever since last Thursday's econ data failed to cause a stir in financial markets, we knew we'd be waiting until today for big, data-driven volatility ...
Wed, Oct 16 2024, 4:24 PM
Thursday Morning is This Week's Biggest Volatility Risk
While there was certainly a bit of an upward drift i...
Wed, Oct 16 2024, 10:48 AM
The market was hungry for data before the jobs report week and has been even hungrier since then. Unfortunately, there haven't been many compelling r...
Tue, Oct 15 2024, 4:34 PM
Uneventful Day, But That's a Victory These Days
Last week's bond market action offered some glimmers of hope...
Tue, Oct 15 2024, 9:36 AM
Bonds moved into stronger territory over the 3 day weekend in a move largely attributed to de-escalation in the Middle East and the sharp drop in oil ...
Fri, Oct 11 2024, 3:58 PM
Boring Week and Next Week Isn't Much More Promising
It's always a bit jarring to go from something like last...
Fri, Oct 11 2024, 11:14 AM
When it comes to economic data with any real significance, today only offered two reports: PPI and Consumer Sentiment. Neither have an especially stu...
Thu, Oct 10 2024, 4:53 PM
Bonds Turn Green Despite Plenty of Volatility
It was touch and go in the mid-day hours as early stability (m...
Thu, Oct 10 2024, 11:34 AM
At first glance, it looks as if the bond market will make it through Thursday morning without being too worse for the wear. When the monthly core CPI...
Wed, Oct 9 2024, 3:45 PM
Don't Expect Salvation From CPI
Bonds lost a bit of ground on Wednesday with Treasuries having a far rougher...
Wed, Oct 9 2024, 10:09 AM
This week's economic calendar is choked with Fed speeches and most of them are happening today. Collectively, those will be more relevant than the re...
Tue, Oct 8 2024, 4:31 PM
Worst is Over. Now What?
Good things happened in the bond market on Tuesday. There was a bit of a scare in ...
Tue, Oct 8 2024, 11:13 AM
Friday's NFP gave the bond market a solid whack, sending yields quickly higher. Momentum remained intact over the weekend and through Monday. Overse...
Mon, Oct 7 2024, 4:08 PM
Bonds Undergoing a Bit of a Reset
3 weeks ago, the Fed voted to cut rates by 0.50%. Traders had rushed to g...
Mon, Oct 7 2024, 10:27 AM
Here's a repeat of the lock/float considerations posted on Friday after the jobs report: "Friday's strong jobs report and resulting bond market rout c...
Fri, Oct 4 2024, 4:45 PM
Who Lied About Jobs Numbers?
Unpleasant day for the bond market with jobs crushing forecasts and being revis...
Fri, Oct 4 2024, 11:32 AM
It is a very simple day for the bond market. There was a ton of anticipation for today's jobs report after the past two iterations raised concerns ab...
Thu, Oct 3 2024, 5:14 PM
ISM Makes For Negative NFP Lead-Off
If the bond market has to digest an ISM Services report that is much str...
Thu, Oct 3 2024, 9:46 AM
There are some labor market reports that cause some concern about a weaker job market. And while Jobless Claims is often thought to be a leading indi...
Wed, Oct 2 2024, 4:03 PM
Wednesday's Market Movement Raises Stakes for Friday
There are times when the bond market seems not to care ...
Wed, Oct 2 2024, 12:00 PM
The Fed's been saying it for several months and the market has been trading it accordingly for just as long: the focus has clearly shifted away from i...
Tue, Oct 1 2024, 4:26 PM
Bonds Unexpectedly Forced to Focus on War Instead of Data
Just 30 minutes before the month's most important ...
Tue, Oct 1 2024, 11:30 AM
This morning's slate of economic data is certainly higher-profile compared to yesterday with JOLTS and ISM Manufacturing always capable of moving the ...
Mon, Sep 30 2024, 5:26 PM
Moderate Losses For Bonds as Powell Stays "Hawkish"
In the lexicon of market watching, the Fed is considered...
Mon, Sep 30 2024, 12:21 PM
Momentum has been building and focus has been shifting. After a few years of inflation reports giving the jobs report a run for its money in terms re...
Fri, Sep 27 2024, 5:22 PM
Finally Cooling Off Just in Time to Heat Up Again
Much of the past week has been spent monitoring the "post-...
Fri, Sep 27 2024, 12:05 PM
Just a few months ago, the big ticket inflation reports were just as relevant as the jobs report in terms of their ability to cause movement in the bo...
Thu, Sep 26 2024, 5:14 PM
More Resilient Today, But It's Still All About Data
The bond market is still searching for its identity in t...
Thu, Sep 26 2024, 11:41 AM
At the risk of tempting fate by discussing a leveling-off of the post-Fed correction again, the overnight session saw the most compelling case yet for...
Wed, Sep 25 2024, 4:49 PM
Is it Time to Worry About Bond Market Losses?
Ever since Fed day, it seems the bond market only really knows...
Wed, Sep 25 2024, 11:35 AM
The bond market is in a bit of a lull with any excess buying demand flowing to the shorter end of the yield curve. Meanwhile, the long end has been d...
Tue, Sep 24 2024, 4:46 PM
Early Weakness Erased After Labor Market Warning Signs
The first few hours of domestic trading caused some c...
Tue, Sep 24 2024, 10:50 AM
Monday's trading session offered some hope that the post-Fed correction was losing steam, but purely from a technical standpoint. All we really know ...
Mon, Sep 23 2024, 4:57 PM
Post Fed Correction Leveling Off?
Based on the weakness in the bond market this morning, it looked as if the...
Mon, Sep 23 2024, 10:42 AM
We closed last week with the idea of "buy the rumor, sell the news" seemingly being a good way to think about the time leading into and away from the ...
Fri, Sep 20 2024, 4:20 PM
Modestly Weaker But Ultimately Uneventful
In terms of the realized volatility relative to potential volatili...
Fri, Sep 20 2024, 10:32 AM
Wednesday's Fed rate cut was the worst kept secret in the financial world for months, and the 50bp rate cut was increasingly suspected in the week lea...
Thu, Sep 19 2024, 4:02 PM
MBS Easily Outperform Longer-Term Treasuries
Few market watchers would have guessed that MBS would have held...
Thu, Sep 19 2024, 3:37 PM
The post-Fed overnight session was surprisingly calm. In fact, relative to the magnitude of yesterday's events and information, this is surely one of...
Wed, Sep 18 2024, 5:16 PM
Bonds Lose Ground Despite Larger Fed Rate Cut
The Fed was either going to cut 0.50% or 0.25% today. It o...
Wed, Sep 18 2024, 9:31 AM
There is special providence in a 50bp Fed rate cut. If it be now, 'tis not to come (until the next Fed meeting perhaps). If it be not to come, it wi...
Tue, Sep 17 2024, 3:39 PM
What Matters in Wednesday's Fed Announcement?
The ongoing disagreement in the market regarding the size of W...
Tue, Sep 17 2024, 11:30 AM
This morning's Retail Sales headline was stronger than expected, but the sub-components (analogous to something like core CPI as opposed to headline C...
Mon, Sep 16 2024, 4:04 PM
Just Another Day of Waiting
Bonds started stronger, retraced back to 'unchanged' following the manufacturing...
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