Today, 9:49 AM
Bonds are starting the day just a hair stronger versus yesterday's close and there are three ways to look at it. At the most basic level, the move is ...
Wed, Jul 8 2026, 3:50 PM
More War-Related Weakness, But With a Supportive Bounce
Bonds officially closed at the highest yields in mor...
Wed, Jul 8 2026, 9:27 AM
Iran-related headlines have jumped back to the realm of relevance this week and Wednesday morning's overnight session kicked things up another notch. ...
Tue, Jul 7 2026, 3:18 PM
Hormuz Back in The News
Iran has attacked a few cargo ships recently and there are repercussions. The peace ...
Tue, Jul 7 2026, 9:46 AM
From summertime Monday to summertime Tuesday... Yesterday's modest strength is now erased by today's modest weakness. In both cases, the movement is t...
Mon, Jul 6 2026, 4:03 PM
Uneventful Summertime Monday
Volume and--sometimes--volatility can be generally lower in the middle of the s...
Mon, Jul 6 2026, 10:19 AM
Bonds weathered the 3-day weekend without issue. We started the day modestly stronger, but have moved back closer to unchanged levels in the first 2 h...
Thu, Jul 2 2026, 2:17 PM
Not Reading Too Much Into Late Day Reversal
Bonds rallied quickly in response to this morning's jobs report ...
Thu, Jul 2 2026, 9:05 AM
Bonds continued drifting gently higher in the overnight session with 10yr yields just barely edging above 4.50% before today's big jobs report (the on...
Wed, Jul 1 2026, 3:46 PM
Bonds Find Some Solace in Warsh Despite a Bit More Selling
The past 2 days have been rough for the bond mark...
Wed, Jul 1 2026, 9:28 AM
Bonds have added modestly to Tuesday's big quarter-end sell-off (a phenomenon that has nothing to do with the sorts of fundamental developments that d...
Tue, Jun 30 2026, 3:59 PM
Why We Saw Steady Selling All Day
We expected volatility would pick up on Tuesday for one reason or another ...
Tue, Jun 30 2026, 9:21 AM
Before looking at trading screens this morning, the first order of business would have been to mention the ramp up in economic calendar activity. Whil...
Mon, Jun 29 2026, 3:25 PM
Volatility Risk Ramps Up From Here
Monday made it clear that traders are playing by the typical summertime, ...
Mon, Jun 29 2026, 10:24 AM
At the risk of jinxing it, Monday is pretty much already in the back as an uneventful start to a holiday-shortened week (early close on Thursday and f...
Fri, Jun 26 2026, 4:51 PM
Early Gains. Flat Afternoon. MBS Underperform
Friday ended up offering a boring conclusion to a week that ha...
Fri, Jun 26 2026, 10:01 AM
Q2 has been one of the best quarters for stocks going all the way back to the dot com boom, even after the 4-5% pullback in June. This has created a m...
Thu, Jun 25 2026, 3:27 PM
Mostly Holding Yesterday's Big Gains
Bonds began the day in modestly weaker territory, but not weak enough t...
Thu, Jun 25 2026, 8:59 AM
The PCE price index may be a less timely report than CPI/PPI when it comes to measuring inflation in the U.S., but it's more thorough and has stronger...
Wed, Jun 24 2026, 3:52 PM
What's Up With Today's Big Rally? (Spoiler Alert: Quarter-End Rebalancing)
Stocks went on a tear in Q2 with ...
Wed, Jun 24 2026, 9:34 AM
Bonds spend most of the night trading sideways to slightly stronger. Oil prices fell sharply, making it tempting to conclude that's the reason that 10...
Tue, Jun 23 2026, 4:17 PM
Mostly Sideways and Lacking Inspiration
Tuesday may as well have been a holiday. Volumes were among the lowe...
Tue, Jun 23 2026, 9:58 AM
Yesterday's most interesting development was the visible decoupling of bond yields with oil prices. To a lesser extent, one could also lament that mid...
Mon, Jun 22 2026, 4:49 PM
What's Up With Bonds Decoupling From Oil, Etc.?
On the average trading day in the past few months, if oil pr...
Mon, Jun 22 2026, 9:59 AM
European bond yields surged higher on Friday in response to political uncertainty in the U.K., among other things (ongoing global reaction to Fed day ...
Thu, Jun 18 2026, 3:19 PM
Perfectly Acceptable Conclusion to a Potentially Volatile Week
With markets closed for the Juneteenth holida...
Thu, Jun 18 2026, 10:04 AM
Trump officially signed the Iran MOU last night , which helped oil prices and bond yields move a bit lower. Overseas markets also did a decent job dig...
Wed, Jun 17 2026, 5:00 PM
Bonds Tell Warsh What They Think of His Changes
Ironically, one of Warsh's comments in today's press confere...
Wed, Jun 17 2026, 2:00 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release...
Wed, Jun 17 2026, 9:40 AM
So far today, we've seen some war-related headlines that feel like they should have gotten at least a mild response (Trump saying MOU isn't final and ...
Tue, Jun 16 2026, 4:24 PM
Decent Gains, But Some Signs of Resistance
Bonds improved overnight at the start of European trading and mad...
Tue, Jun 16 2026, 11:55 AM
European markets definitely got in on the peace deal action yesterday, but they didn't trade it nearly as aggressively as US markets. Why bring this ...
Mon, Jun 15 2026, 4:15 PM
Gradual Selling Leaves Bonds Only Slightly Stronger.
With both sides signing the peace memo, the market w...
Mon, Jun 15 2026, 10:07 AM
Although at least one article (from BBC) suggested a peace deal had been signed on Friday, the real word appears to be that a signing is scheduled for...
Fri, Jun 12 2026, 3:34 PM
Minimal Deal Drama, But Next Week Could be Different
Various headlines out of Iran pushed back on the not...
Fri, Jun 12 2026, 9:34 AM
Bonds were sideways at first in the overnight session. Then they improved moderately after newswires from Iran's Mehr news agency detailing some speci...
Thu, Jun 11 2026, 4:40 PM
Big Rally After More Forceful Peace Deal Announcement
This morning's commentary noted Trump comments regardi...
Thu, Jun 11 2026, 9:44 AM
Bonds were reasonably stronger in the overnight session with 10yr yields down roughly 4bps from 4.56 to 4.52. About 8 minutes before the PPI data came...
Wed, Jun 10 2026, 4:04 PM
War Headlines Cause Mid-Day Reversal
Bonds started the day inconsequentially weaker and picked up some gains...
Wed, Jun 10 2026, 9:52 AM
Most understand this, but some forget: CPI numbers on econ calendars are not prices. They're the change in prices. We bring that up in case anyone thi...
Tue, Jun 9 2026, 4:38 PM
Bonds End at Strongest Levels
Unlike yesterday, which saw an uneventful open give way to intraday weakness, ...
Tue, Jun 9 2026, 9:51 AM
For the second day in a row , bonds are starting out in modestly stronger territory, but let's hope we don't repeat yesterday's performance. That left...
Mon, Jun 8 2026, 5:18 PM
Bonds Faded in the Afternoon Despite Oil Price Recovery
Oil prices and bond yields started the overnight ses...
Mon, Jun 8 2026, 9:57 AM
Things got a bit worse before they got better over the weekend. 10yr yields were as high as 4.58% in overnight trading, but are now roughly unchanged ...
Fri, Jun 5 2026, 4:42 PM
At Least It Didn't Get Much Worse After The Initial Rout
If you had to find something reassuring to say abou...
Fri, Jun 5 2026, 10:08 AM
Buzz has been growing around the labor market for the past several months, but today's jobs report went the extra mile to make it official. The job ma...
Thu, Jun 4 2026, 4:12 PM
Modest Gains Maintained After Intraday Slippage
Slippage is a bit less severe than leakage. Neither of them ...
Thu, Jun 4 2026, 9:14 AM
The following newswire hit about an hour before the open: TRUMP: US IN THE MIDDLE OF FINAL NEGOTIATIONS TO END IRAN WAR. Bond yields and oil prices h...
Wed, Jun 3 2026, 3:47 PM
Minimal Change After Overnight Volatility
War headlines struck back in the overnight session. Specifically, ...
Wed, Jun 3 2026, 9:13 AM
Iran launched missiles at several U.S. allies yesterday afternoon and oil prices responded accordingly with a move back up to May 22nd levels. Treasur...
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