Today, 6:04 PM
Straightforward Gains After Important Inflation Data
While today's monthly core PCE headline may have techni...
Today, 11:58 AM
After yesterday's quarter over quarter core PCE price index came in 0.2% higher than expected, we knew today's monthly PCE data would have to include ...
Thu, Jul 25 2024, 3:29 PM
Lots of Competing Motivations Causing Volatility In a Narrow Range
Today marked an uptick in the importance ...
Thu, Jul 25 2024, 11:44 AM
It was easy to question the notion of "data dependence" in the first half of the week, largely because there wasn't much in terms of meaningful econom...
Wed, Jul 24 2024, 4:30 PM
Whatever Happened to Bonds Being Data Dependent?
Bonds began the day in stronger territory and remained stro...
Wed, Jul 24 2024, 12:07 PM
While they may not be the most highly consequential economic reports on any given month, today's S&P Global PMIs were our best shot to see some volati...
Tue, Jul 23 2024, 4:23 PM
Afternoon Weakness For Longer-Term Bonds. Are MBS in That Category?
It's easy to throw around general catego...
Tue, Jul 23 2024, 11:39 AM
This morning's market movement continues to build a case against yesterday's mid-day sell-off being serious and purposeful. Bonds have continued to r...
Mon, Jul 22 2024, 5:02 PM
Mid-Day Mystery Move But no Impact on Bigger Picture
The most notable development in the bond market today w...
Mon, Jul 22 2024, 11:22 AM
If there was any remaining doubt that recent political headlines were given too much credit for impacting the bond market, it was removed late Sunday ...
Fri, Jul 19 2024, 5:22 PM
Super Duper Flat After Overnight Losses
In a vacuum limited to this week, Friday ended up being the only int...
Fri, Jul 19 2024, 10:26 AM
This week's bond rally hit a wall at the 3pm close on Wednesday. There's been gradual upward pressure since then with today's overnight session seein...
Thu, Jul 18 2024, 5:08 PM
Morning Volatility, Afternoon Drift
Bonds began the day in modestly weaker territory before undergoing a bit...
Thu, Jul 18 2024, 12:49 PM
Today's Jobless Claims report is for the week ending July 13th. This is important because the establishment survey for the big jobs report (nonfarm p...
Wed, Jul 17 2024, 4:43 PM
More Data Defiance. Maybe It's All About Claims?
Bonds have been trending gently stronger after last week's ...
Wed, Jul 17 2024, 11:28 AM
Just because an economic calendar is full doesn't mean it's of any major importance to the bond market. Today fits the bill with the two economic hea...
Tue, Jul 16 2024, 4:16 PM
Bonds Shake Off Retail Sales Impact to End Stronger
This morning's Retail Sales data may have been right in ...
Tue, Jul 16 2024, 10:41 AM
Retail Sales was/is the biggest data point of the week and it came out perfectly unchanged. This was as-expected according to some data aggregators a...
Mon, Jul 15 2024, 4:45 PM
The Sun Also Sets on Bond Rallies
Don't worry, the headline is much more dire than the underlying message. ...
Mon, Jul 15 2024, 11:40 AM
While there's no way objectively quantify the political ramifications of the failed assassination attempt on former President Trump over the weekend, ...
Fri, Jul 12 2024, 4:44 PM
Pleasant PPI Paradox Leaves This Week's Big Victory in Focus
The Producer Price Index (PPI) introduced a bri...
Fri, Jul 12 2024, 11:40 AM
The Producer Price Index (PPI) is certainly not in the same league as CPI when it comes to bond market impact, but there have been several notable rea...
Thu, Jul 11 2024, 4:42 PM
Very Restrained Bond Rally Considering The Data's Implications
Today's CPI data was hotly anticipated, to sa...
Thu, Jul 11 2024, 10:47 AM
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the most important economic report for the bond market these days. The most important line item in that report is m...
Wed, Jul 10 2024, 4:04 PM
No New Inspiration Ahead of Thursday's CPI
We've officially run out of ways to characterize the boring, side...
Wed, Jul 10 2024, 11:07 AM
The most recent sideways slide began just before noon last Friday. Bonds had rallied in response to the jobs report with 10's closing at 4.29%. Sinc...
Tue, Jul 9 2024, 4:29 PM
MBS Outperform. Powell Punts. Waiting on CPI
Bonds showed slightly more notable signs of life this morning w...
Tue, Jul 9 2024, 9:54 AM
The new week is one day less new today, but no less sideways so far. Yields rose microscopically in the overnight session, but even that is a generou...
Mon, Jul 8 2024, 4:10 PM
Uneventful Monday Leaves Bonds Little Changed
It was a quintessential summertime Monday to start the new wee...
Mon, Jul 8 2024, 10:42 AM
Bonds are finding their range in a perfectly inoffensive way to begin the new week. That's a victory considering a bit of weakness is never a surpris...
Fri, Jul 5 2024, 4:33 PM
Orderly, Logical Rally as Bonds Reiterate Data Dependence
Today's recap isn't any different than the morning...
Fri, Jul 5 2024, 11:24 AM
Today's playbook was fairly straightforward with bonds being likely to move in the direction suggested by the jobs report. The only challenge would h...
Wed, Jul 3 2024, 2:18 PM
Data Over Politics, For Now
Several days ago, we were debating whether the presidential debate or the month-...
Wed, Jul 3 2024, 11:42 AM
The bond market will close at 2pm instead of 5pm today as a part of the Independence Day holiday (fully closed tomorrow). With only a few hours left,...
Tue, Jul 2 2024, 5:00 PM
Ultimately a Very Drama-Free Day; Back to Watching Data
Tuesday helped buck the recent trend of frustratingl...
Tue, Jul 2 2024, 11:37 AM
It's been an interesting and frustrating couple of days for the bond market with yields spiking for reasons that leave many bond watchers guessing. A...
Mon, Jul 1 2024, 5:28 PM
Changing The Narrative to Fit The Market Movement
Often, if not most of the time, one can observe the core i...
Mon, Jul 1 2024, 11:45 AM
Friday's trading session was marked by a surprisingly weak reaction to economic data that should have helped bonds. In fact, it did at first, but thi...
Fri, Jun 28 2024, 3:34 PM
What to Make of Week's Weakest Levels After Solid PCE Data
Things looked good for the bond market earlier th...
Fri, Jun 28 2024, 12:10 PM
This morning's most notable scheduled event and biggest potential market mover was the release of May's PCE price index, the Fed's favorite inflation ...
Thu, Jun 27 2024, 4:31 PM
Back in The Range Without Needing Too Much Convincing
Unlike yesterday, the overnight session sent bonds int...
Thu, Jun 27 2024, 10:10 AM
It's been an odd morning for the bond market, but not in an objectionable way. In not so many words, bonds are rallying somewhat nicely despite an ab...
Wed, Jun 26 2024, 3:53 PM
Sideways Trend Looking Shifty
Using Treasury yields as a road map, the past week and a half has been excruci...
Wed, Jun 26 2024, 10:31 AM
The absence of relevant domestic market movers has been a theme all week. While that has gone hand in hand with relatively uninspired bond market mov...
Tue, Jun 25 2024, 3:06 PM
Decent 2yr Auction, But No Major Inspiration For Bonds
We've increasingly revisited the concept of the "insi...
Mon, Jun 24 2024, 3:36 PM
No Major Data, No Major Movement
It was a snoozer of a day for bonds with yields and MBS prices holding well...
Mon, Jun 24 2024, 10:18 AM
With last Friday's range in 10yr yields of roughly 4.22 to 4.27, there was narrow window for today being an "inside day" (i.e. when the previous sessi...
Fri, Jun 21 2024, 4:41 PM
Ultimately an Uneventful Week Despite Micro-Volatility
This morning featured an overnight rally driven by we...
Fri, Jun 21 2024, 10:56 AM
S&P Global (formerly Markit) PMIs are the standard PMI around the world, but have long been second fiddle to ISM PMIs in the U.S. That's certainly st...
Thu, Jun 20 2024, 3:26 PM
Counterintuitive Weakness Early, But Inconsequential in Bigger Picture
The past two trading days each had th...
MBS Market Alerts
