As it turns out, not everyone has a loan on their house. In fact, 40 percent of U.S. homes don’t have a mortgage, per the Census Bureau. Should I repeat that? 40%. (Here’s a nice map with state-level information.) What are you, or your company, doing about it? Are you even seeing those potential clients in your database? Regarding new homes… Let’s see, if we’re building 1.5 million housing units a year, and we’re short 6 million housing units, that’s… let’s see… carry the 1… 4 years. Oh, and during that time, housing stock is destroyed by floods, winds, fires, earthquakes… Any other questions? Meanwhile, long gone are the days of the phone “ringing off the hook”: the pandemic was nearly six years ago, and with it, 30-year rates in the 3s. Industry pundits will tell you that there are still too many lenders and too many LOs given where volume (in units) will be this year. And if you get the deal, it will be with low margins. (Today’s podcast can be found here. This week’s are sponsored by Polly. Polly operates the industry's only vertically integrated capital markets platform, purpose-built to maximize profitability through precision cost reduction, margin expansion, and real-time, loan-level attribution and profitability analysis. Today’s has a dark interview with Johns Hopkins’ Dan Ye on how 90 percent of human capital will be replaced in the next 10 years through AI, and how you can potentially ward off the impending doom.)

Products, Programs, and Software for Lenders

In today’s hyper-competitive and ever-evolving mortgage market, it’s more important than ever for servicers to have the right technology in place. That’s why so many servicers choose to simplify their operations with MSP®, ICE’s loan servicing software. MSP handles functionality across the full servicing lifecycle while offering scalability and supporting compliance efforts to reduce risk. Advanced decisioning capabilities and workflow automations boost operational efficiencies, so servicers can focus on providing an exceptional experience for the homeowner. Click here to discover why more servicers select MSP than any other loan servicing software.

“Start 2026 off with a BETTER 2nds Program powered by Tinman AI. Better Wholesale is open to brokers and lenders of all sizes… Work with us and get lender-direct pricing! Loan officers can login to an easy digital pricing experience, featuring an approval process that takes as little as 3-minutes. And the speed is backed up by a real underwriting process. Price sensitive clients? Better offers low rates with no lender origination fees. Business owners? We offer 12 & 24 month Bank Statement programs. If you’d like to make higher comp than most programs, earn up to 3% in BPC. What else? Up to 90% CLTV, 75% minimum draw, and up to a 10-year IO period on HELOC. Heading to the New England Mortgage Summit at Mohegan Sun next week? Let’s connect and meet in person. Visit Better Wholesale or contact Patrick Kandianis directly.”

Ever see how underwater welders work? They plunge into murky depths, cut through metal with electric arcs, and emerge with precision work that most people never notice. That’s not a bad metaphor for the gnarliest part of mortgage lending: income calculations. With complex self-employed and rental scenarios, it can feel like you’re working blind. But now Friday Harbor has integrated Fannie Mae’s Income Calculator directly into its proprietary AI Originator Assistant, letting lenders surface accurate qualifying income instantly, plus rep-and-warrant relief baked right in. Pair it with Friday Harbor’s new appraisal underwriting intelligence, and you’ve got a platform that clears visibility where defects love to hide. Discover how Friday Harbor is enabling lenders to work cleaner, faster, and with significantly reduced risk. Request a demo.

AI Isn’t the Future of Lending. It’s Already Here. AI is reshaping mortgage lending faster than most teams realize. In a recent session with David Lykken, Total Expert partnered with Assurance Financial to break down how modern AI goes far beyond basic automation to drive real, human conversations at scale. By pairing AI with Customer Intelligence, lenders can identify borrower intent earlier, engage at the right moment, and convert more opportunities without adding pressure to loan officers. The result? More meaningful conversations, higher productivity, and stronger borrower relationships — all while freeing teams from repetitive follow-up. If you’re wondering how leading lenders are using AItoday to compete smarter and grow despite market headwinds, this is a must-watch.

The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.

JVs and Acquisitions

In today’s Advisory Angle at 2PM ET, Garth Graham, David Hrobon, and Amanda Gibson discuss how the M&A in mortgage is becoming more deliberate, with today’s deals focused on positioning for the next cycle rather than survival, as highlighted by the strategic timing behind the UWM Two Harbors transaction. STRATMOR breaks down why transactions now look different, what acquirers are truly prioritizing, and how leadership teams should be thinking about growth from here.

Williston Financial Group® (WFG®), a national, full-service provider of title insurance and settlement services, and Gold Capital Partners, a real estate services enterprise, today announced the formation of Metro United Title and Escrow, a bold new joint venture designed to modernize and simplify the real estate transaction experience.

Metro United is launching operations in Arizona with scheduled expansion into multiple states in early 2026. The venture is centrally supported by WFG, which provides the technology backbone, operational support, and title underwriting expertise to power a streamlined, transparent, and scalable platform.

CapStone Holdings Inc. today announced it has acquired Structurely, an artificial intelligence-powered sales engagement company. The acquisition reflects CapStone Holdings' strategic focus on scalable technology platforms with durable competitive advantages and positions Structurely for accelerated growth within the rapidly expanding AI-driven sales automation market. “Structurely operates as a full-stack AI telephony and agentic workflow infrastructure, integrating voice, text, decision logic, and CRM connectivity into a single platform designed to automate and optimize early-stage sales engagement. Unlike many AI solutions positioned as lightweight add-ons, Structurely's infrastructure-first approach has resulted in a multi-year technology and data advantage that would be difficult for new market entrants to replicate.”

Another New Wire Fraud Scheme

The Alaska MBA notified members that, “A new wire fraud scheme is targeting settlement companies with fraudsters calling title agents, claiming to be from banks' fraud departments, and using urgent language about ‘suspicious activity’ to redirect wire transfers. The FBI reported over 5,100 account takeover complaints in 2025 with losses exceeding $262 million. The American Land Title Association issued an alert after fraudsters obtained transaction details through compromised emails, making calls sound legitimate.

Critical protection steps: never change wiring instructions based on phone calls alone, always verify by calling the bank using a number from their official website (not one the caller provides), implement dual-verification for all wire changes, and report suspected fraud to ic3.gov immediately. Alaska's tight-knit mortgage community means word travels fast when fraud attempts occur, but everyone, nationwide, can share information with other title companies and lenders when you encounter suspicious calls. Treat any last-minute wiring changes with extreme suspicion, especially requests claiming to come from ‘fraud departments.’

Housing Affordability: Lending is Only Part of It

Insurance premiums reached record levels in 2025, now consuming 9 percent of typical mortgage payments and directly impacting borrower debt-to-income ratios. After an 18 percent jump in 2024, growth moderated to 8.5 percent in 2025, with forecasters projecting continued annual increases of approximately 8 percent through 2027. A Matic survey found 64 percent of lenders experienced insurance-related issues affecting closings or qualification in 2025.

This plays into states that rank among the least expensive states for homeowners insurance (think Alaska, Vermont, and Delaware) attracting relocating buyers from high-cost states like Florida, Louisiana, or California, where insurance can add $300-500 monthly compared to cheaper states. In this environment a good originator will discuss insurance costs during pre-qualification rather than at contract stage, and quantify any insurance advantage in buyer presentations, especially for out-of-state relocations.

The Trump Administration is exploring ways to address housing affordability ahead of the midterm elections, with a focus on policies affecting mortgage finance. Key proposals include halting (or even reversing) recent increases to the conforming loan limit, which critics argue only fuels higher home prices. The administration is also urged to move past debates over credit score frameworks, seen as unproductive for expanding access to credit, and to resist efforts by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to raise capital requirements for independent mortgage banks (IMBs) by excluding institutional capital tied to excess servicing strip (ESS) transactions from net worth calculations. Supporters argue that newer “ESS 2.0” structures reduce risk for both issuers and the GSEs by shifting servicing-related capital costs off IMB balance sheets.

A broader theme is the need to re-engage the Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLBs) as a systemic liquidity backstop for the mortgage market, particularly for IMBs and Ginnie Mae issuers that currently lack reliable support. Despite holding substantial excess cash and dominating federal funds lending, the FHLBs serve only a shrinking share of the residential mortgage market. The proposal is for FHLBs to provide fully secured repo financing to IMBs, especially for government-insured and even defaulted loans with zero risk weight, thereby reducing systemic risk in times of stress. By expanding their role beyond traditional bank members and leaning into the market during downturns, the FHLBs could address the largest remaining liquidity vulnerability in US housing finance and improve affordability and stability without new subsidies.

MISMO on the Move

MISMO®, the real estate finance industry’s standards organization, announced its 2026 Board of Directors, reflecting a “strong roster of mortgage industry leaders aligned to address critical issues and trends facing the mortgage industry, including artificial intelligence, digitization, and regulatory complexity.” Leaving are Sage Nichols, Cotality, and Kurt Johnson, Mr. Cooper. But coming in are Matt VanFossen, CEO, Absolute Home and Mortgage Automation Technologies, Courtney Thompson, EVP Servicing, CMG Financial, Jay Kingsley, President, Cotality, Greg McElroy, Managing Director, COO, Amerihome Mortgage Company, David Neylan, President & COO, Guild Mortgage, Leslie Peeler, EVP & COO, Cenlar FSB, and Todd McGowan, President Lender Division, First American.

These seven join 18 others: Teri Pansing, Kevin Peranio, Aaron Perlis, Kiran Sahota, Ike Suri, Matt Tully, Michele Bodda, Timothy Bowler, Lisa Dorsey, Brian Doyle, Tim Elkins, Suzanne Garwood, Peter Grace, Patrick Hartford, Michael Hogan, Aravind “Jag” Jagannathan, Neenu Kainth, and Giuseppe “Joe” Lucido.

“MISMO exists by the industry and for the industry, and that model only works because of leaders who step forward to serve,” said Brian Vieaux, MISMO President. “These new Board leaders bring broad expertise across origination, servicing, capital markets, compliance, data, and technology, all of which are critical as MISMO continues to advance standards supporting automation, AI readiness, and interoperability.

“MISMO recognizes the continued service of returning Board members whose leadership and expertise provide essential continuity as the organization advances its mission. Representing a broad cross-section of the mortgage ecosystem, these leaders help guide MISMO’s strategic priorities, standards development, and regulatory collaboration, ensuring momentum and steady leadership as MISMO enters its next phase focused on awareness, adoption, and industry alignment.

“MISMO’s work to solve key industry challenges is made possible through the support of its members, champions, sponsors, and lenders (via the Innovation Investment Fee).”

Capital Markets

We saw a little bit of the expected “flight to quality” on the first day of the first full trading week in 2026, as developments in Venezuela stoked wider geopolitical uncertainty. Despite the headline risk, broader market reactions have been contained: equities are higher, oil remains range-bound around $55–$60 per barrel, and bond yields are still within recent trading ranges. Investors appear to see limited systemic fallout for now, even as geopolitics adds to an already uncertain policy backdrop. Attention is quickly shifting back to fundamentals, particularly the labor market, which remains the key swing factor for U.S. growth and Federal Reserve policy.

The broader economic outlook favors a gradual bull steepening of the yield curve driven by slowing labor conditions and eventual Fed easing. Markets currently see a low probability of a near-term rate cut (only around 15 percent at conclusion of the FOMC meeting at the end of the month), but expectations could shift quickly if employment data weakens. Over 2026, the base case is for continued normalization toward a neutral policy rate near 3 percent, with multiple cuts anticipated if the labor market softens further. Overall, the outlook is for lower front-end yields (we wrote about the attractiveness of ARMs late last week), modestly lower long-end rates, easing inflation expectations, and a Treasury market increasingly driven by growth and inflation fundamentals rather than structural or supply-side fears.

After we learned yesterday that U.S. manufacturing contracted further in December, with the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing index slipping to 47.9 and marking the steepest year-end weakness since 2024 (factories have now been in contraction for 10 straight months, as firms draw down raw material inventories at the fastest pace since October 2024 to meet soft demand), today’s economic calendar is an uneventful one. We’ve already received remarks from Richmond Fed president Barkin, but there are no data points of note. Risk ramps over the remainder of the week with several jobs-related releases (i.e., ADP, ISM Services, JOLTS, and Friday’s BLS jobs report). We begin Tuesday with Agency MBS prices roughly unchanged from Monday’s close, the 2-year yielding 3.46, and the 10-year yielding 4.18 after closing yesterday at 4.17 percent.