Fri, May 24 2024, 8:57 AM
If there were any remaining doubts regarding the relevance of Durable Goods as a big ticket market mover, they are put to rest by the absence of a dis...
Thu, May 23 2024, 4:17 PM
Surprisingly Strong Surge in Services PMI Tests The Range
Perhaps fate was tempted by our persistent focus o...
Thu, May 23 2024, 3:45 PM
For the most part, the current week is sorely lacking in the sort of scheduled economic data and events that typically contribute to exciting movement...
Thu, May 23 2024, 11:45 AM
Some people say, “You’re crazy to stay in residential lending in this environment, and it’s not going to improve dramatically in the near future.” No,...
Thu, May 23 2024, 9:02 AM
It's day 6 of the increasingly famous 11-day weekend (1 normal weekend plus the 3 day Memorial Day weekend and the 5 days in between without any big t...
Wed, May 22 2024, 4:58 PM
No Major Reaction to Fed Minutes
Today's only event that has any precedent of inspiring rate volatility was ...
Wed, May 22 2024, 4:28 PM
It was another slow day for the mortgage market and one that joins a list of several other relatively inconsequential days in the past few weeks. Thi...
Wed, May 22 2024, 3:17 PM
The inventory of existing homes for sale increased from March to April, but the increased availability didn’t bolster sales. The National Association ...
Wed, May 22 2024, 11:46 AM
As many from the conference fly home, there was a lot of information flying around the conference this week. (Check out the climate and catastrophe no...
Wed, May 22 2024, 10:37 AM
It's unclear if the industry can recover from what is surely one of the most troubling rate spikes in modern economic history. Invoking one of the mos...
Wed, May 22 2024, 8:54 AM
Interest rates hit a seven-week low last week, boosting the level of refinancing applications for the third straight week, but those for home purchase...
Tue, May 21 2024, 3:52 PM
No Fireworks Expected From Fed Minutes
Day 4 of the 11 day weekend is in the books and the bond market did e...
Tue, May 21 2024, 3:38 PM
Referring to the past 3 business days as a "losing streak" for mortgage rates may be a bit harsh. During that time, the average top tier 30yr fixed r...
Tue, May 21 2024, 10:50 AM
Ever since the inflation data in Q1 proved to be less rate-friendly than we might have hoped, the Fed has been exactly as unfriendly as we might have ...
Mon, May 20 2024, 3:33 PM
Mostly Flat After Initial Weakness
There's a risk that a theme will emerge in the coming days, but a theme t...
Mon, May 20 2024, 3:22 PM
Mortgage rates moved modestly higher on the two days at the end of last week. This put an end to a decent winning streak that had been in place since...
Mon, May 20 2024, 11:35 AM
Greetings from the Arch MI meeting room space! Heard in the hallways here at the MBA’s Secondary conference in Manhattan: “Our loan officers are telli...
Mon, May 20 2024, 11:16 AM
It's not too common to refer to a week with Fed meeting minutes as "super slow," but at the risk of complacency, how could the Fed possibly share any ...
Fri, May 17 2024, 3:31 PM
Moderate, Inconsequential Weakness
Bonds lost ground at a modest to moderate clip on Friday, but not for any...
Fri, May 17 2024, 3:11 PM
Mortgage rates have had a great month of May so far with almost every day being a winner up until yesterday and today. Even then, the 2 day losing st...
Fri, May 17 2024, 12:02 PM
We’re only a few days away from the MBA’s Capital Markets Conference. Attendees, don’t forget to pick up your badges, or else! (Speaking of interestin...
Fri, May 17 2024, 11:12 AM
Friday's only scheduled economic report is the Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) index. It is not considered a timely market mover...
Thu, May 16 2024, 5:00 PM
Gradual Weakness All Day And a Quieter Calendar Ahead
Today brought the last of the scheduled economic data ...
Thu, May 16 2024, 4:18 PM
On the average day in the mortgage market, the average lender will offer the same mortgage rate terms for the entire day. It's only when the underlyi...
Thu, May 16 2024, 2:55 PM
The latest data on new residential construction from the U.S. Census Bureau paints a somewhat mixed picture of the housing market. While housing compl...
Thu, May 16 2024, 12:02 PM
It's the day after the CPI data and thus begins a concerted effort over the next few weeks to avoid compiling every piece of commentary as a simple co...
Thu, May 16 2024, 11:47 AM
Attendees of next week’s MBA Secondary conference can look forward to… A giant hot dog in Times Square that spits out confetti at high noon. (Keep you...
Wed, May 15 2024, 3:04 PM
Like The Last CPI Never Even Happened
The much anticipated CPI data was perfectly in line with expectations ...
Wed, May 15 2024, 2:28 PM
If it feels like we've been harping on the prospects for rate volatility in response to today's inflation data for several weeks (and we have), today ...
Wed, May 15 2024, 1:54 PM
Builders’ confidence in the new home market retreated this month , the first decline since last November. The National Association of Home Builders (N...
Wed, May 15 2024, 11:37 AM
Misconceptions and misunderstandings… Capital markets folks at the MBA conference next week should know that The Naked Cowboy in Times Square is not r...
Wed, May 15 2024, 10:29 AM
First off: the bond market rallied after the CPI data came out and remains in much stronger territory vs yesterday. That said, the more context we ad...
Wed, May 15 2024, 8:21 AM
Lower interest rates gave a lift to refinancing activity for the second week but failed to do the same for those financing home purchases. The Mortgag...
Tue, May 14 2024, 4:45 PM
Bonds Ready to go Big in Either Direction
If you only had 1 day per month to allocate to watching the bond m...
Tue, May 14 2024, 4:31 PM
We've been waiting for tomorrow since April 10th. That's the last time the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released. This is one of the two official ...
Tue, May 14 2024, 11:50 AM
Attendees are gearing up for the upcoming MBA Secondary Conference in Manhattan. Basketball fans know it as the home of Madison Square Garden and are ...
Tue, May 14 2024, 9:04 AM
The Producer Price Index (PPI) isn't in the same league as CPI when it comes to market movement potential, but as seen again this morning, it's no slo...
Mon, May 13 2024, 4:41 PM
What You See Today Won't Necessarily Be What You See Tomorrow
With essentially nothing on the event calendar...
Mon, May 13 2024, 4:24 PM
Last Thursday, mortgage rates merely had to hold steady in order to hit 1-month lows. In other words, Wednesday's rates were low enough to earn that ...
Mon, May 13 2024, 11:41 AM
Ahead of the upcoming MBA conference in Manhattan, as a reminder, we have five senses. All of them are important, with perhaps smell being the most un...
Mon, May 13 2024, 11:17 AM
In 2023 and especially 2024, the first bullet point in the bond market's job description is to focus on Core CPI above all other economic reports. In...
Fri, May 10 2024, 4:24 PM
In general, you should be skeptical any time someone says a future week will be more volatile. There's really no way to know such things in advance, b...
Fri, May 10 2024, 4:24 PM
Higher Inflation Expectations Keep Yields Range-Bound
It's not as if bond yields stood any real chance of br...
Fri, May 10 2024, 12:36 PM
The following should be prefaced with the reminder that it is impossible to predict the future with much precision when it comes to bond market moveme...
Fri, May 10 2024, 11:52 AM
On a flight yesterday I had a choice of movies and, knowing nothing about it, chose “The Beekeeper,” filled with severed fingers and broken glass bein...
Thu, May 9 2024, 4:45 PM
The most prevalently quoted conventional 30yr fixed rates are at the lowest levels in a month as of today, but there are a few "yeah buts" that make t...
Thu, May 9 2024, 4:43 PM
Bonds Boosted by Data and Well-Received Auction
Jobless Claims data doesn't normally move the market, but it...
Thu, May 9 2024, 11:09 AM
It is a starkly data-free week for all intents and purposes, but some economic reports are with us as always on a weekly basis. Thursday's initial jo...
Wed, May 8 2024, 4:47 PM
Yesterday, we took a look at the recent winning streak for mortgage rates. Specifically, they had moved lower for 5 straight days--a feat only achiev...
Wed, May 8 2024, 4:44 PM
Token Pull Back Keeps Things Boring
Coming into this week, we expected things to be boring and sideways afte...
