Fri, Jun 30 2023, 9:27 AM
Whereas Thursday's data was clearly bad for bonds/rates (ultimately creating a challenge to the 3.84 range ceiling), Friday's key morning data is rela...
Thu, Jun 29 2023, 4:50 PM
Despite other indices showing the average 30yr fixed rate in the 6.7 range, the actual average (after accounting for points) is once again over 7%. W...
Thu, Jun 29 2023, 4:33 PM
Bonds Crushed by Data, But Technically Still in The Range
At many points in the past week, we've lamented th...
Thu, Jun 29 2023, 10:24 AM
A “crisis” is a time of intense difficulty, trouble, or danger. Think calamity, catastrophe, or disaster. The word makes for attention-grabbing headli...
Thu, Jun 29 2023, 9:44 AM
Technical analysis provides an easy entry point for folks who want to talk about what the markets might do next. It is made all the more alluring due...
Wed, Jun 28 2023, 4:25 PM
The bond market is waiting for bigger news on inflation and the economy, and traders aren't pretending otherwise. Why does that matter? Traders dete...
Wed, Jun 28 2023, 4:17 PM
Modest Relief Rally as Headline Risk Comes and Goes
Unlike yesterday, bonds didn't have any market moving ec...
Wed, Jun 28 2023, 12:54 PM
Unlike yesterday, there is no meaningful economic data to move the needle this morning. Bonds continue biding their time, waiting for "meaningful." ...
Wed, Jun 28 2023, 10:02 AM
As the U.S. faces nationwide flight delays, one must ask if there are processes in place for the FAA to deal with them. “Trust the process” is a commo...
Wed, Jun 28 2023, 9:17 AM
In light of yesterday’s strong report on new home sales and the earlier marginally improved one on pre-owned home sales, mortgage application volumes ...
Tue, Jun 27 2023, 5:25 PM
Tuesday continued the same theme of incredibly modest movement inside an incredibly narrow range. The average lender is still just under 7% for a con...
Tue, Jun 27 2023, 5:11 PM
Logical Weakness After Stronger Data
Forget "love." Today data hurts. Durable Goods fired a warning shot a...
Tue, Jun 27 2023, 1:33 PM
Both the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index and the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA’s) Home Price Index (HPI) show home...
Tue, Jun 27 2023, 1:16 PM
Last month’s sales of newly constructed single-family homes rose to the highest level since February 2022. The report from the U.S. Census Bureau an...
Tue, Jun 27 2023, 11:29 AM
Forget "love." Today data hurts. Durable Goods fired a warning shot at 8:30am. Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales finished the job at 10am. Wi...
Tue, Jun 27 2023, 10:27 AM
Dang there’s a lot going on in Texas. One week it’s raining “hail the size of goat balls” (not my term; it was the phrase used by the woman mortgage b...
Mon, Jun 26 2023, 4:23 PM
Only So Many Ways to Say Sideways
It was an uneventful, boring, uninspiring, and unenlightening summertime M...
Mon, Jun 26 2023, 4:03 PM
The average 30yr fixed mortgage rate has been holding just under 7% for the entire month, making June the least volatile month in well over a year. A...
Mon, Jun 26 2023, 12:46 PM
Here we are (still) with 30yr yields closer to 4% than 3%, economic growth softening, leading indicators pointing to further contraction, and inflatio...
Mon, Jun 26 2023, 9:49 AM
How can it be that it’s been 14 years since Michael Jackson died of acute propofol intoxication? (A drug that is used for the induction and maintenanc...
Fri, Jun 23 2023, 5:17 PM
A majority of the housing market data on any given month tends to come out mostly on the same week. This was that week and the takeaway was that the h...
Fri, Jun 23 2023, 3:24 PM
Still Waiting For a Breakout After Friday's Uneventful Strength
Friday began with solid gains courtesy of we...
Fri, Jun 23 2023, 11:19 AM
Granted, today's only available domestic economic data is the S&P PMIs, but the market could have justified either a stronger or weaker response. The...
Fri, Jun 23 2023, 10:43 AM
Time is an interesting construct. The solstice is officially behind us, and we can officially hum “The Boys of Summer” with impunity. Time… “5,000 yea...
Thu, Jun 22 2023, 4:35 PM
One important disclaimer right upfront: there's no real need to concern yourself with recent day-to-day movement in mortgage rates if your goal is to ...
Thu, Jun 22 2023, 4:06 PM
Powell Says Old Things in New Ways and Bonds Don't Like It
It was day 2 for Fed Chair Powell's congressional...
Thu, Jun 22 2023, 2:40 PM
The reality of the home sales market is in the eye of the beholder these days and the just-released Existing Home Sales report doesn't shed much light...
Thu, Jun 22 2023, 1:51 PM
Have you heard the one about the 3.72-3.84 range? While we haven't seen much of the ceiling this week, the floor is getting a workout. Yesterday aft...
Thu, Jun 22 2023, 10:16 AM
“So, HBO Max is now just ‘Max.’ Your move, Peacock.” Lenders continue to cogitate on their next moves as rates remain stubbornly high and inventory av...
Wed, Jun 21 2023, 3:46 PM
No Whammies From Powell, 20yr Auction Helps
After a clear rejection of the 3.72% floor in 10yr yields overni...
Wed, Jun 21 2023, 3:43 PM
Any discussion about mortgage rates rising or falling in the month of June requires the caveat about the trend being exceptionally flat in the bigger ...
Wed, Jun 21 2023, 1:08 PM
While it would be nice to have our 3.4-3.6 range back, the past few weeks have seen the adoption of a new 3.72-3.84 range. While ranges this narrow o...
Wed, Jun 21 2023, 9:50 AM
I realize that this is a mortgage commentary, but our business touches many aspects of many lives. Today is the summer solstice, marking the astronomi...
Wed, Jun 21 2023, 8:27 AM
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said home purchase activity increased last week, allowing for a small gain in its Market Composite Index. That ...
Tue, Jun 20 2023, 4:56 PM
Deceptively Uneventful Trading Day For Bonds
Right out of the gate this morning, bonds responded to the mass...
Tue, Jun 20 2023, 4:31 PM
Mortgage rates are primarily driven by changes in the value of certain bonds that trade on the open market. Those bonds (mortgage-backed securities o...
Tue, Jun 20 2023, 3:05 PM
Although the New Residential Construction report released by the Census Bureau has notoriously wide margins of error, it's rare to see numbers like to...
Tue, Jun 20 2023, 12:42 PM
Bonds started the holiday-shortened week at moderately higher yields, but rallied several bps during European hours. 8:30am econ data pushed back, er...
Tue, Jun 20 2023, 9:40 AM
I am fortunate to travel around some (no, I am not on the missing Titanic tourist submarine, nor personally shepherding the new Credit Trigger Bill in...
Fri, Jun 16 2023, 6:34 PM
Rates may not be as high as they were several months ago or as low as they were 5 weeks ago, but they're close enough to either boundary that the thre...
Fri, Jun 16 2023, 4:02 PM
Rangebound Weakness With Fed Speakers Keeping Bonds Wary
Bonds might have had a chance to hold steady today-...
Fri, Jun 16 2023, 12:22 PM
Heading into this week's CPI and Fed Day combo, we expected bonds to be broadly sideways with elevated volatility. But rather than give new direction...
Fri, Jun 16 2023, 10:16 AM
Competition is the mainstay of many businesses and individuals. How does UPS compete to hire drivers for their trucks? One way might be to offer air c...
Thu, Jun 15 2023, 4:12 PM
Earl Data-Driven Rally And Not Much Drama After That
Despite a slew of other economic data that was stronger...
Thu, Jun 15 2023, 3:26 PM
Not to be confused with the big monthly jobs report (the one that includes a count of "nonfarm payrolls" as well as the official unemployment rate in ...
Thu, Jun 15 2023, 11:08 AM
Here’s a couple informal reads on the economy. When I have a few extra ducats in my pocket, sometimes I’ll spring for the more expensive Shrimp Alfred...
Thu, Jun 15 2023, 9:55 AM
Last week's biggest bond rally occurred on Thursday, immediately following the release of the highest Jobless Claims number since late 2021. Exactly ...
Wed, Jun 14 2023, 4:55 PM
As was widely expected, the Federal Reserve held rates steady today. Mortgage rates were also generally steady, but the two have little to do with on...
Wed, Jun 14 2023, 4:42 PM
Fed Threads Needle With Forecasts That Are Not Really Forecasts
Four times a year, the Fed updates its SEP (...
Wed, Jun 14 2023, 2:00 PM
The following is a comparison of today's Fed statement to the previous statement from May 3rd. Deletions are struck through and in red. Additions ar...
