A frequent topic in this Commentary is how lenders are responsible for only a small portion of the affordability issue. A big hit to affordability is insurance, and thank you to Kevin K. for passing along this story focused on fire resilience and home upgrades and how they may address insurance costs. Trying to plan for natural events is a full-time job that occupies many, as is thinking about the future of technology. On today’s Last Word presented by TRUE at 1PM ET, Brian Vieaux, Courtney Thompson, and Kevin Peranio break down a busy week across mortgage and capital markets, including hot takes on technology amid recent industry shifts. The panel also examines Venezuela’s potential market impact, shares projections for 2026, and wraps with each host offering their word or resolution for the year ahead. (Today’s podcast can be found here. Today’s has interview with loanDepot’s Jeff Dergurahian on the key data shaping 2026 forecasts, challenges to market consensus on rates and volume, and how originators can translate economic uncertainty into trusted, client-centric guidance.)

PHH Webinar Series

PHH Mortgage is excited to offer free webinars (live and on-demand) on a variety of topics. Next week, they will host two webinars on PHH’s non-Agency product line, FlexIQ. On Tuesday, January 13 at 1 pm EST, “PHH Mortgage Presents: Introduction to FlexIQ,” and on Thursday, January 15 at 12 pm EST, “PHH Mortgage Presents: FlexIQ Bank Statement Essentials.” Register for these courses or view archived courses here.

The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.

The Fed Did This Five Years Ago, and Home Values…

President Trump ordered ‘my representatives’ to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds in effort to lower housing costs through an attempt to drive down interest rates and monthly payments, writing in a Truth Social post.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two government-owned mortgage giants, are now worth “an absolute fortune” and have enough cash to fund the directive, Trump wrote in the post. “Because I chose not to sell Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in my First Term… it is now worth many times that amount — AN ABSOLUTE FORTUNE — and has $200 BILLION DOLLARS IN CASH. Because of this, I am instructing my Representatives to BUY $200 BILLION DOLLARS IN MORTGAGE BONDS. “This will drive Mortgage Rates DOWN, monthly payments DOWN, and make the cost of owning a home more affordable.”

Generally, when the Fed or another entity purchases more mortgage-backed securities, namely mortgage bonds, it lowers the interest rates charged on mortgages. But that’s not always the case, as the Fed does not directly control the rates on those loans. Recall that during the pandemic, the U.S. Federal Reserve bought hundreds of billions in MBS, indeed driving up prices and driving down rates. This helped contribute to the ultra-low mortgage rates many Americans were able to lock in during those years.

For instance, the Fed lowered its benchmark interest rate multiple times last year and in 2024, which traditionally would also help lower mortgage rates. However, mortgage rates have remained elevated in part because Americans who got low mortgage rates during the pandemic haven’t been moving.

With the brief exception of the spring of 2020, current home inventory and sales have remained near their lowest point since the housing and financial crisis that ended in 2010. America is short by about 4 million homes needed to address the supply shortage and return housing to affordable levels in this country, according to Goldman Sachs Research.

Trump did not specify who the representatives are, or when or how the purchases would happen. It’s also unclear whether Trump can authorize this without congressional backing. But Bill Pulte, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency which oversees operations of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, said his agency would be taking on the initiative. “We are on it, Mr. President!”

In-Person Events in 2026

Historically mortgage conferences take a breather from November through January, and things kick back up again in February. This year things pick up in January. Every conference has an LTV ratio: the percent of “Lenders to Vendors.” A good place for longer term conference planning and for organizers to post their events is to start is here for in-person events in the future.

MISMO has its Winter Summit next week, January 12-15.

Join MBA of Eastern PA, January 21, 2:00 PM - 3:00 PM (EST), for a high-impact webinar based on Pat Sherlock’s Mortgage Manager Mastery, the go-to blueprint for building elite, high-performance mortgage sales teams. We’ll break down the leadership systems and daily disciplines that top managers use to attract talent, elevate performance, and run consistently profitable branches.

The MBA is putting on the Independent Mortgage Bankers Conference on Amelia Island, Florida February 2-4. “An intimate gathering designed exclusively for IMB leaders from companies of all sizes and business models.”

MCT’s Exchange 2026, MCT’s client conference, is taking place February 12-13 at the InterContinental San Diego. As the Currents of Capital reshape the secondary mortgage market, this premier client conference will help attendees harness the changing flow of opportunity. Immerse in expert market analysis, innovative technology announcements, and collaborative roundtables with industry peers. Attendees can also explore learning tracks tailored to today’s evolving landscape, and connect with lenders, investors, and partners from across the country. From insightful sessions to vibrant networking events, MCT Exchange 2026 is where the future of mortgage capital markets converges.

The MBA has its Servicing Solutions conference in Dallas February 16-19.

The NMLS 2026 is in Orlando, FL and is February 17-20.

The TMBA offers up the Southern Secondary Market Conference, February 22–24, at the Westin Houston Memorial City in Houston, TX.

Join NMBA, February 24–26, at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas for ELEVATE, the ultimate conference for brokers and mortgage professionals ready to explore the world of private lending. This isn’t your average mortgage event. ELEVATE brings together brokers, private lenders, and investors for three days of education, networking, and inspiration all focused on helping you grow from commissions to capital.

The Optimal Blue Summit is taking place February 23 – 25 at Talking Stick Resort and Conference Center in Scottsdale, Arizona. From expert-led sessions and hands-on tech showcases to curated networking with capital markets leaders, every element of the Summit is designed to give attendees a competitive edge and help them maximize profitability. Early bird registration is available for just $199. Secure your ticket today and be first to experience an event where proven mortgage expertise meets modern innovation to shape what's next.

The Northeast Mortgage Summit in Mashantucket, CT, will be February 25-26.

March 1-4, in Ft. Lauderdale, we have the Lenders One Summit.

Registration information will be available soon for the IMBA Spring Mortgage Lending Conference on Wednesday, March 11, 10am - 4:30pm. Confirmed speaker, Joel Kan, Deputy Chief Economist Mortgage Bankers Association, will discuss economic/mortgage market update. Also, concurrent interactive breakout sessions for Sales and Ops will be offered.

Registration for ICE Experience 2026 is now open for ICE clients. Join thousands of mortgage professionals for three days of learning, networking and innovation at the Wynn Las Vegas, March 16–18, 2026. Register now to take advantage of the lowest rates of the year: super early bird pricing is just $995, and if you bring a team of four or more, the rate drops to $745 per person. This year features a new format for pre-conference training with smaller classes and more hands-on learning, plus four focused session tracks designed around ICE solutions and the same high-quality networking events you love. ICE Experience is where ideas spark, connections grow and innovation happens here.

MBA of New Jersey is already looking ahead to one of their favorite things, bringing the industry together in one place. Conversation. Ideas. Connection. All of it. Conference registration is officially open for MBA of New Jersey’s 42nd Annual Regional Conference, March 22-24 at Ocean Casino & Resort.

Registration is now open for The 2026 Forum by Asurity®, presented in collaboration with premier sponsor RiskExec®, and taking place April 20–22 at The Roosevelt New Orleans. The 2026 Forum brings together leaders in Fair and Responsible Banking, CRA, compliance, and financial crimes for two days of practical, real-world insight. Hosted at The Roosevelt New Orleans, a Waldorf Astoria Hotel, the conference features dynamic panels of regulators, legal experts, and practitioners, along with hands-on sessions covering CRA modernization, fair lending, AI governance, and emerging supervisory priorities. Attendees can earn CRCM and CERP continuing education credits, with CLE credit anticipated pending state approvals. Reserve your place today!

The Texas MBA’s 110th Annual Convention is April 26-28 at the Marriott Austin Downtown, in Austin, Texas: 110th Annual Convention.

Starting in May, NAMMBA’s OPSCON 2026 is a conference built specifically for underwriting and operations professionals in the mortgage industry. In Dallas, Irvine, and Orlando, the event delivers 1.5 days of high-impact keynotes, interactive breakout sessions, and live technology demonstrations. The agenda focuses on operational excellence, workflow automation, compliance, and leadership strategies. OPSCON 2026 is where mortgage operations teams connect, collaborate, and shape the future of efficiency in housing finance.

May 17-20 is the MBA’s National Secondary in Manhattan. Yes, it will be at the Marriott on Times Square… where else would it be?

June 14-16 will be the Ohio Mortgage Bankers Association annual conference near Columbus, Ohio.

6/17-6/18 in Honolulu is the MBAH’s annual conference.

August 10-12, the California MBA hosts its fabled Western Secondary, not to be missed.

The Louisiana Mortgage Banker Association’s Annual Conference August 16th-18th 2026 at the Hilton Capitol Center Downtown Baton Rouge.

In September we have, in Hood River, Oregon, the PNMLC yearly conference from 9/13-9/15 as well as, in Dallas from 9/15-16, the LoanVision Innovation conference. (Watch for details.)

10/4-10/6 in Ypslanti, near Detroit, the Michigan Mortgage Lenders Association is having its annual fete.

10/11-10/14 is the MBA “Annual”, this year in Chicago.

On 11/18, in St. Louis, we have the Mortgage Bankers Association of St. Louis annual luncheon, along with other events throughout the year, and on 11/19, in Kansas City, is the annual MBAKC luncheon. (Watch for details.)

Capital Markets

In December, Agency MBS gross issuance totaled $117.8 billion, down 4 percent from November but up 23.5 percent from December 2024, and near the historical December average of $119 billion, suggesting a normalization of supply. For all of 2025, issuance reached $1.24 trillion, a 10.7 percent increase over 2024 but still 7.5 percent below the pre-QE4 half-decade average, with projections for 2026 pointing to roughly $1.4 trillion under assumptions of slightly higher lending rates, stable home prices, lower refinance activity, and modestly higher new and existing home sales.

Loan-level production showed 3.64 million Agency mortgages created, the highest since 2022, with Ginnie Mae leading the gains and Fannie Mae losing market share. Refinance activity drove much of this growth, with 30-year refinance-sourced issuance rising sharply across both conventional and Ginnie Mae II pools. On the purchase side, average loan sizes have plateaued or slightly declined for Ginnie Mae, which may improve deliverable characteristics despite its recent weaker excess return performance relative to other MBS sub-components.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said earlier this week that U.S. job openings fell in November to a more than one-year low (7.15 million from a downwardly revised 7.45 million in the prior month) and hiring slowed, indicating most employers remain reluctant to make big changes to headcount. Yesterday, we learned that the preliminary Q3 Productivity report showed a 4.9 percent gain alongside a 1.9 percent decline in unit labor costs, while a much stronger-than-expected October trade balance posted the smallest deficit since 2009, helping drive the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast for Q4 GDP up to 5.4 percent (both Big Government and the Trump Administration approve). Markets rebounded from early lows before slipping late in the session as investors positioned ahead of the December employment report and an anticipated Supreme Court ruling on tariffs.

While mortgage credit remains tight overall, availability has modestly improved over the past year, primarily for higher-income and higher-credit borrowers, with the MBA Mortgage Credit Availability Index up about 8 percent since December 2024, driven by sharp gains in jumbo and conventional lending while Ginnie Mae availability rose only marginally. Even so, all borrower segments face far more restrictive conditions than in 2018, reflecting a multiyear tightening that accelerated during the pandemic as home prices surged. As affordability pressures persist, mortgage origination has increasingly shifted toward Ginnie Mae, which offers relatively easier credit access, reversing the QE4-era dominance of conventional issuance. Ginnie Mae’s share of total issuance has reached consecutive record highs since 2023, averaging over 40 percent in both 2024 and 2025, and is likely to continue gaining share from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, reshaping the Agency MBS market as investor exposure tilts toward a borrower base with meaningfully different risk and behavioral characteristics.

Today brings/brought December payrolls: the unemployment rate was 4.4 percent, nonfarm payrolls were +50k, less than expected, and hourly earnings were +3.8 percent year-over-year. Fed Chair Powell recently suggested payroll gains may be overstated by roughly 60k per month, current expectations range from about 70k at the median to as high as 150k take on a different complexion once that adjustment is considered. Even so, a stronger print increases the risk of an upside break becoming difficult to contain.

Later today brings remarks from two Fed speakers: Minneapolis’ Kashkari and Richmond's Barkin. The Supreme Court could also rule on the legality of President Trump’s tariffs; will Liberals or Big government rejoice? Picking a side is so, so important. We begin Friday with Agency MBS prices little changed after their nice improvement yesterday afternoon, the 2-year yielding 3.52, and the 10-year yielding 4.18 after closing yesterday at 4.18 percent.