Today, 3:43 PM
Incidental, Inconsequential Weakness Ahead of Fed Week
Bonds began the day in modestly weaker territory and ...
Today, 3:20 PM
The underlying bond market (which dictates the rates offered by mortgage lenders) weakened moderately overnight. Weaker bonds equate to higher rates,...
Today, 11:38 AM
“Rob, we’ve said ‘no’ to more expansion possibilities than ever before. Are you hearing other lenders doing deep dives on LOs and branches and also no...
Today, 11:11 AM
Bonds began the week with 10yr at 4.07 before rallying down to 4.04 by Monday's close. Now on Friday, we're opening at 4.06 and we haven't spent much...
Thu, Sep 11 2025, 4:25 PM
Very Calm Reaction But Not Too Surprising
One could argue that CPI is the next biggest potential market move...
Thu, Sep 11 2025, 3:51 PM
Today's inflation report (the Consumer Price Index or CPI) certainly had a chance to create volatility for rates, but things ended up staying fairly c...
Thu, Sep 11 2025, 12:10 PM
It's an interesting morning for economic data and the bond market's reaction. At face value, CPI was mostly in line with forecasts, but unrounded num...
Thu, Sep 11 2025, 11:41 AM
“All I know is what I read in the papers,” Will Rogers quipped. In news in the papers from our Census Bureau, AI use at large companies is in decline....
Wed, Sep 10 2025, 4:28 PM
Helpful Data and Treasury Auction Set High Bar For CPI
Another fairly straightforward day for the bond marke...
Wed, Sep 10 2025, 4:02 PM
Wednesday brought the first of this week's two key inflation reports. While the Producer Price Index (PPI) is the lesser of the two in terms of potent...
Wed, Sep 10 2025, 11:46 AM
“Rob, I hate it when mom and dad fight. Will this Pulte/Bessent, FHFA/Treasury tussle impact mortgage rates?” Probably not; it hasn’t so far. Director...
Wed, Sep 10 2025, 11:34 AM
Mortgage applications jumped 9.2% last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s survey for the week ending September 5, 2025. The results...
Wed, Sep 10 2025, 11:27 AM
Of the two inflation reports out this week, PPI is the lesser of the two in terms of importance, but it came in far enough below forecasts to prompt s...
Tue, Sep 9 2025, 4:04 PM
Post-NFP Rally Momentum Fades
When bonds string together several successive days of improvement, the probabi...
Tue, Sep 9 2025, 3:19 PM
It had to happen at some point. After spending 4 straight days of setting new 11-month lows, mortgage rates finally moved higher today, but the headli...
Tue, Sep 9 2025, 11:42 AM
Tomorrow I head from Boise to Jackson for the Mississippi Mortgage Banker’s Fall Conference. Certainly a topic in my email in-box and at events is how...
Tue, Sep 9 2025, 10:31 AM
On August 1st, Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) not only came out weaker than expected, but the previous two reports were also revised significantly lower. This...
Mon, Sep 8 2025, 3:34 PM
To their credit, most mortgage lenders did an admirable job of aggressively pricing-in the bond market rally after last Friday's jobs report. Many mor...
Mon, Sep 8 2025, 3:33 PM
More Gains Despite Absence of New Motivation
There's not much to say about Monday other than "we'll take it!...
Mon, Sep 8 2025, 11:43 AM
“When the economy is good, people drink. When the economy is bad, people drink. The moral? Invest in alcohol.” Here in Boise at the PNMLC, the comment...
Fri, Sep 5 2025, 4:44 PM
Textbook Reaction With Minimal Volatility
The bond market's reaction to today's jobs report was a textbook e...
Fri, Sep 5 2025, 12:32 PM
It may seem like today's bond market movement alone (3/8ths higher in MBS and 0.09% in 10yr yields) doesn't explain the pace of improvement in mortgag...
Fri, Sep 5 2025, 11:51 AM
It's a well-known fact that the monthly jobs report is more capable of causing big reactions in rates than any other economic data. It happened last m...
Fri, Sep 5 2025, 11:29 AM
The Fed looks at Twitter to gauge the financial sentiment out there? Yes: TFSI! The Federal Reserve certainly finds itself in a maelstrom these days… ...
Fri, Sep 5 2025, 9:07 AM
It's a fairly straightforward morning with NFP coming in much weaker than expected with additional net-negative revisions to the previous 2 months. Th...
Thu, Sep 4 2025, 3:54 PM
Bonds Positioning For Weaker NFP?
One of the best things to understand about the jobs report is that the pay...
Thu, Sep 4 2025, 3:22 PM
The jobs report is the most important scheduled event each month as far as interest rates are concerned. The last installment helped get the average 3...
Thu, Sep 4 2025, 11:46 AM
“Apparently you can’t use ‘beef stew’ as a password. It’s not stroganoff.” How’s your privacy? Or another question: Why wouldn’t you tell your recent ...
Thu, Sep 4 2025, 10:33 AM
Thursday morning's slate of econ data was the most active of the week with claims, layoffs, ADP, and ISM Services (also the Trade Gap and Labor Costs,...
Wed, Sep 3 2025, 4:21 PM
Straightforward Data-Driven Rally
It proved to be an incredibly straightforward day for the bond market. Tr...
Wed, Sep 3 2025, 3:42 PM
October 3rd is a date that has come up many times in the past month of mortgage rate coverage. That's because there's been a veritable chasm between t...
Wed, Sep 3 2025, 3:35 PM
Mortgage applications decreased modestly last week, with overall volume slipping 1.2%. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey showed a decli...
Wed, Sep 3 2025, 11:40 AM
“Twas the third of September, the day I’ll always remember… Wherever he laid his hat was his home, and when he died, all he left us was a loan…” Okay,...
Wed, Sep 3 2025, 10:12 AM
Bonds were flat to just slightly stronger in the overnight session but a noticeable rally is underway following the JOLTS data (job openings and labor...
Tue, Sep 2 2025, 4:33 PM
Still in The Range as Bonds Wait For Bigger Influences
Bonds were noticeably weaker to start the new month w...
Tue, Sep 2 2025, 3:57 PM
Mortgage rates are based on bonds and bonds can do funny things on the first and last trading days of any given month. One of the most common "funny t...
Tue, Sep 2 2025, 11:37 AM
What’s old is new again? In Vermont, one man is refurbishing payphones for people to use for free. Very cool. Debt isn’t old or new, but how we treat ...
Tue, Sep 2 2025, 10:31 AM
The Tuesday after Labor Day can have a mind of its own when it comes to financial markets--especially if it also happens to be the trading day of the ...
Fri, Aug 29 2025, 4:21 PM
Calm Day to End A Calm Week
While Friday itself may not have resulted in a rally for the broader bond market...
Fri, Aug 29 2025, 2:30 PM
It was a very slow and steady week for mortgage rates. On all 5 days, the average top tier 30yr fixed rate moved by 0.02% or less. This is a small en...
Fri, Aug 29 2025, 11:44 AM
There are two big picture inflation reports in US that address consumer prices: CPI and PCE. Of the two, PCE is broader and more highly regarded by po...
Fri, Aug 29 2025, 10:17 AM
“The hardness of the butter is proportional to the softness of the bread.” Proportionality is important, whether in a restaurant or in a lender watchi...
Thu, Aug 28 2025, 4:15 PM
Generally Exciting, But Specifically Boring
Heading into the present week, it was incredibly unlikely that w...
Thu, Aug 28 2025, 3:15 PM
There is no singular, official primary source for mortgage rate levels. The going rate is whatever can be locked/closed at any given lender. As such, ...
Thu, Aug 28 2025, 9:10 AM
This morning's economic calendar only looks robust on paper. While quarterly GDP results in numerous line items, they're not as important as they mig...
Thu, Aug 28 2025, 8:57 AM
“Remember how when you were little you could just rip off your diaper and run around naked and everyone thought it was so cute and funny? Anyway, I ne...
Wed, Aug 27 2025, 5:12 PM
Steady Gains After Slightly Weaker Start
Bonds began the day in slightly weaker territory, but not for any p...
Wed, Aug 27 2025, 4:37 PM
Both the FHFA and the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices published updated home-price data this week. The takeaway remains the same: prices are rising...
Wed, Aug 27 2025, 4:19 PM
The latest New Home Sales report showed little change in July, with sales holding very close to June’s pace. The seasonally-adjusted annual sales rate...
Wed, Aug 27 2025, 3:56 PM
Mortgage application activity was little changed last week, with only a fractional decline in overall volume. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekl...
