Tue, Dec 5 2023, 4:26 PM
Right from the start and with only a few days that didn't fit the narrative, November was a stellar month for mortgage rates, and December is picking ...
Tue, Dec 5 2023, 4:12 PM
Logical Response to Data. Bonds Not Looking Nervous at 3 month lows
We knew that today's JOLTS and ISM repor...
Tue, Dec 5 2023, 12:43 PM
JOLTS, the job openings and labor turnover survey, used to be a very forgettable report. On a scale of potential market movers, we've always assigned...
Tue, Dec 5 2023, 11:33 AM
My cat Myrtle doesn’t have a lot of rizz, and there are those that will argue that no cat has any charisma whatsoever. But plenty of marketing people ...
Mon, Dec 4 2023, 3:29 PM
Apart from this past Friday, you'd have to go back to September 1st to see lower mortgage rates than today. It probably makes the best sense to view ...
Mon, Dec 4 2023, 3:29 PM
A Bit of Meaningless Weakness. More Important Stuff On Deck
Bonds lost ground to start the new week, but not...
Mon, Dec 4 2023, 11:45 AM
Bond rallies = lower rates. We like bond rallies. But when rates fall too quickly or consistently, it can be too much of a good thing. That's a phe...
Mon, Dec 4 2023, 10:43 AM
“People would learn more from their mistakes if they weren’t so busy denying them.” Here’s a little trivia for the compliance folks in the coffee room...
Fri, Dec 1 2023, 5:05 PM
Just yesterday, we were nodding in agreement and acceptance of the fact that rates were better served by cooling off a bit (read: "rising") after impr...
Fri, Dec 1 2023, 5:04 PM
Another Surprisingly Eager Bond Rally Suggests Caution and Opportunity
Two days ago, the focus of the analys...
Fri, Dec 1 2023, 12:28 PM
With it being the first trading day of a new month and a Friday, it's hard to determine the extent to which traders planned to buy bonds today providi...
Fri, Dec 1 2023, 12:04 PM
Yesterday, a clown held the door open for me. It was such a nice jester. On the flip side, it’s not nice being taken advantage of and lenders are feel...
Thu, Nov 30 2023, 3:08 PM
If you count the Friday after Thanksgiving as a business day, mortgage rates had fallen for 6 straight days as of yesterday afternoon. Moreover, they...
Thu, Nov 30 2023, 12:26 PM
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said its Pending Home Sale Index (PHSI) established a record low in October. The Index, a forward-looking ...
Thu, Nov 30 2023, 11:45 AM
It would have been a lot to ask for bonds to continue rallying without any major justification after hitting 4.25% yesterday and after 50bp rally over...
Thu, Nov 30 2023, 10:42 AM
Home schooling is the goodest thing I ever did for my two kids. Hopefully, they both learned that an inverted yield curve doesn’t automatically create...
Wed, Nov 29 2023, 5:03 PM
There were no major economic reports or news headlines in play today. Movement in the bond market (which underlies mortgage rate changes) was orderly...
Wed, Nov 29 2023, 3:14 PM
Shifting Trends, Shifting Strategies?
Another day of modest to moderate gains, but this time without the sam...
Wed, Nov 29 2023, 12:00 PM
The "base case" of a narrower, more sideways range between CPI and NFP is increasingly being disproven by a more bullish reality. Especially after th...
Wed, Nov 29 2023, 11:20 AM
There is always non-mortgage financial news. Mark Cuban is both selling his share in the Dallas Mavericks and leaving Shark Tank. Berkshire Hathaway’s...
Wed, Nov 29 2023, 9:48 AM
Despite the three-day week observed by most businesses last week, purchase mortgage applications more than held their own. The Mortgage Bankers Associ...
Tue, Nov 28 2023, 3:52 PM
The trend in rates has been very linear in the 2nd half of the month and the day-to-day changes have been getting smaller and smaller. On 5 of the las...
Tue, Nov 28 2023, 3:38 PM
Bonds Surprisingly Willing to Rally on Fed Comments
The only notable market mover for bonds was a rather bas...
Tue, Nov 28 2023, 3:24 PM
The tedium that is the 2nd half of November continues to underwhelm. Specifically, we're in a lull between CPI 2 weeks ago and Nonfarm Payrolls next w...
Tue, Nov 28 2023, 12:45 PM
If you're just here for the conforming loan limit news, $766,550 is the number for 2024. Does this mean no one can get a mortgage for more than $...
Tue, Nov 28 2023, 12:02 PM
Today brings the release of the two main home price indices (HPIs) for the month of September (yeah, there's a bit of a lag). The S&P Case Shiller ...
Tue, Nov 28 2023, 10:09 AM
While we await the release of the changes in the official conforming loan limits later today (many lenders and MI companies went to $750k in October, ...
Mon, Nov 27 2023, 3:23 PM
Thanksgiving week is always an interesting (and frequently frustrating) time for the bond market that underlies day to day interest rate changes. Mar...
Mon, Nov 27 2023, 3:20 PM
Back Near Best Levels After Solid Auction Results
For those who'd been watching bond markets on Friday's hal...
Mon, Nov 27 2023, 2:48 PM
The Census Bureau released the monthly New Home Sales report today, showing a decrease from 719k in September (revised down from 759k initially report...
Mon, Nov 27 2023, 11:16 AM
The mortgage industry does not move in unison, unlike some groups. (You’ll need sound.) But consistency is important. For example, Starbucks fans can ...
Mon, Nov 27 2023, 9:35 AM
The end of November has been true to form with several examples of directional movement despite an absence of motivation. Last Friday was perhaps the...
Wed, Nov 22 2023, 3:45 PM
"Lower volatility and more sideways momentum" have been the themes as we've moved away from last week's more consequential economic data. The underly...
Wed, Nov 22 2023, 3:35 PM
Inconsequentially Weaker After Data; We'll Be Back on Monday
While Friday will technically be a half day for...
Wed, Nov 22 2023, 1:06 PM
Thinking of purchasing a house for a disabled adult child or parent? Are you unable to qualify for a mortgage due to a disability? While this progra...
Wed, Nov 22 2023, 12:06 PM
Up until yesterday, we would have placed the lower boundary of the prevailing range somewhere between the 4.40% lows from last Friday and the 4.43% pi...
Wed, Nov 22 2023, 9:42 AM
“I threw my phone from the roof, and it broke. I guess airplane mode wasn’t working.” Plenty of folks will be traveling soon. Here’s some trivia for t...
Wed, Nov 22 2023, 8:47 AM
An improved (albeit slightly) mortgage interest rate environment helped push the volume of mortgage applications higher during the week ending Novembe...
Tue, Nov 21 2023, 3:26 PM
The bond market that underlies mortgage rates has had several decent days in a row with trading levels in excellent territory relative to the past two...
Tue, Nov 21 2023, 3:23 PM
Modest, Decent Gains, But Not Many Surprises
The bond market continues mostly adhering to expectations for n...
Tue, Nov 21 2023, 12:46 PM
Existing home sales achieved their lowest annual level in ten years in September, and now appear to have doubled down. The National Association of Rea...
Tue, Nov 21 2023, 12:41 PM
There's a reason we haven't been mentioning this week's release of the Fed Minutes as we lament the absence of significant scheduled market movers. S...
Tue, Nov 21 2023, 10:30 AM
“This commentary is only available while supplies last!” In the fall of 1621, the Pilgrims, working hard in Plymouth Colony after coming to North Amer...
Mon, Nov 20 2023, 3:39 PM
Uneventful Start. Decent Gains After 20yr Bond Auction
The holiday-shortened trading week is off to exactly ...
Mon, Nov 20 2023, 3:11 PM
Mortgage rates moved down to the lowest levels in roughly 2 months last week. To be fair, they had already hit similar levels earlier in the month af...
Mon, Nov 20 2023, 11:01 AM
After last week's big CPI-driven rally, yields settled into an increasingly calm, sideways trend marked by resistance at the post-CPI lows. It would ...
Mon, Nov 20 2023, 10:30 AM
When you own your own home, you don’t have to deal with unreasonable landlords. (Warning: uncensored.) And then there are those who own their own home...
Fri, Nov 17 2023, 4:30 PM
Solid End to a Solid Week
With essentially nothing meaningful on the economic or event calendar, the bond ma...
Fri, Nov 17 2023, 4:09 PM
The average mortgage lender was fairly close to their lowest levels of the past 2 months by yesterday afternoon and today saw almost no change. That'...
Fri, Nov 17 2023, 1:27 PM
Both of the key metrics for residential construction, housing permits, and housing starts, beat analysts’ expectations in October. The U.S. Census Bur...
