While there was some relevant econ data today (ISM Manufacturing), it didn't have an obvious impact on the bond market. Nonetheless, volume was back at pre-holiday levels. Notably, Dec 11(day after Fed day) was the last day of 2025 that wasn't affected by progressively lighter participation. 10yr yields closed at 4.15% on that day--the same level as today. The winter holidays don't always work out this perfectly, but it couldn't have been any more perfect this year. From here, we can plug back into the incoming econ data and read more significance into any major responses.
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- ISM Manufacturing Employment (Dec)
- 44.9 vs -- f'cast, 44.0 prev
- ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec)
- 47.9 vs 48.3 f'cast, 48.2 prev
- ISM Mfg Prices Paid (Dec)
- 58.5 vs 59.0 f'cast, 58.5 prev
- ISM Manufacturing Employment (Dec)
Moderately stronger overnight and at best levels after ISM data. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 2bps at 4.171
Off the best levels, but still close. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down almost 3bps at 4.162
Sideways at best levels. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 3.6bps at 4.155
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