Mon, May 6 2024, 4:16 PM
Mortgage rates did well last week, making it almost halfway back to the lower levels seen on April 9th. Why focus on April 9th? That was the last da...
Mon, May 6 2024, 11:43 AM
Think your job has its ups and downs… How’d you like to be a lipstick tester? (You should see the rest of him!) For me it is off to Birmingham tomorro...
Mon, May 6 2024, 11:09 AM
Last week was definitely important for the bond market. The key takeaway was the Fed's acknowledgement of elevated inflation in Q1 coupled with the a...
Fri, May 3 2024, 5:18 PM
Bonds Hold On to NFP-Driven Gains Despite Some Push-Back
Whether you view it as a perfectly logical reaction...
Fri, May 3 2024, 5:14 PM
It was an action-packed week for the housing and mortgage market. Wednesday's Fed announcement was the highlight, but we also got several economic rep...
Fri, May 3 2024, 12:46 PM
On most months in modern economic memory, a gain of 175k payrolls would be welcome news for the labor market. Depending on the context, it still is. ...
Fri, May 3 2024, 11:57 AM
When camping here at Yosemite National Park*, you quickly realize that there is one basic product here that has never changed: nature. Mortgage produc...
Thu, May 2 2024, 4:28 PM
The bond market--which dictates interest rates--had a generally favorable response to yesterday's update from the Federal Reserve. While the Fed didn...
Thu, May 2 2024, 4:26 PM
Counterintuitive Rally And Asymmetric Risk
Bonds began the day in slightly stronger territory and managed to...
Thu, May 2 2024, 12:20 PM
Thursday was always destined to be the least interesting day of current week due to its lack of meaningful calendar events, but that doesn't mean we c...
Thu, May 2 2024, 11:07 AM
Not all, but many, capital markets folks spent their college years rolling up their sleeves. Some not so much. When originators are asked about intere...
Wed, May 1 2024, 4:49 PM
Decent Data and Palatable Powell
Bonds managed modest to moderate gains after digesting all of the morning's...
Wed, May 1 2024, 4:08 PM
Wednesday brought a full schedule of events and data for the bond market to digest and bonds dictate day to day changes in mortgage rates. The mornin...
Wed, May 1 2024, 2:00 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the un...
Wed, May 1 2024, 11:49 AM
“I named my dog ‘5 Miles’ so I can tell people I walk 5 Miles every day.” This morning, I head to Yosemite National Park for some camping, hiking, and...
Wed, May 1 2024, 9:00 AM
Rising interest rates continue to constrain mortgage borrowing. The Mortgage Bankers Association says its Market Composite Index, a measure of loan ap...
Wed, May 1 2024, 8:57 AM
Bonds were roughly unchanged overnight, but began to improve modestly after the ADP data. Considering the numbers were higher than expected, that may...
Tue, Apr 30 2024, 4:39 PM
More Ammo For a Hawkish Fed, But Data is at Least as Important
Bonds began the day flat but lost ground quic...
Tue, Apr 30 2024, 3:47 PM
A mortgage rate is highly subjective and can vary for a variety of reasons. A news story that provides an outright level like 7.5% requires context a...
Tue, Apr 30 2024, 12:26 PM
Steering clear of unfriendly economic data has been an increasingly challenging task for the bond market in April. While it might be an overstatement...
Tue, Apr 30 2024, 12:24 PM
Home price increases continued to accelerate in February even as interest rates also moved higher. Both the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices and the...
Tue, Apr 30 2024, 11:45 AM
Don’t believe in climate change, rising sea levels, or cities sinking (“subsiding”)? Venice is sinking. So are Rotterdam, Bangkok, and New York (thoug...
Mon, Apr 29 2024, 4:02 PM
Decent Resilience in Spite of a Few Headwinds
Considering the volatility that may lie ahead, Monday ended up...
Mon, Apr 29 2024, 3:54 PM
Mortgage rates didn't change much at all over the weekend with the average lender still in the highest territory since November. The average conventi...
Mon, Apr 29 2024, 11:52 AM
“I accidentally rubbed ketchup in my eyes. Now I have Heinzsight.” In terms of foresight, looking ahead, there are some interesting things going on ou...
Mon, Apr 29 2024, 11:17 AM
Monday is one of the quietest days of the week although there will be a potentially important update at 3pm when Treasury releases borrowing estimates...
Fri, Apr 26 2024, 5:23 PM
As 2024 has progressed, economic data--especially inflation data--have made it increasingly clear that rates will not be coming down nearly as soon as...
Fri, Apr 26 2024, 5:21 PM
Decent Recovery After Friday's PCE Numbers Clarify Thursday's PCE Numbers
Thursday's quarterly PCE numbers ...
Fri, Apr 26 2024, 12:25 PM
WARNING: once you get past the 1st paragraph here, things start to get a bit "mathy" and esoteric. The takeaway is that there's an actual way to reco...
Fri, Apr 26 2024, 11:52 AM
There seems to be a bit of a baby boom going on out there. Prospective home buyers who need a place for a growing family quickly find out that residen...
Thu, Apr 25 2024, 4:01 PM
Bonds Rattled By Surprisingly Big Beat in Spending Data
Today's big surprise was the PCE price index compone...
Thu, Apr 25 2024, 3:50 PM
Interest rates care about quite a few different things, but inflation and Fed policy are two of the biggest considerations. One of the Fed's favorite...
Thu, Apr 25 2024, 11:40 AM
I travel a little bit, so it was with great interest that I read, “The Department of Transportation… will soon require airlines to quickly refund pass...
Thu, Apr 25 2024, 11:37 AM
It's a bit of a tricky morning in the bond market when it comes to reconciling the data with the market movement. At face value the headlines make a ...
Wed, Apr 24 2024, 4:43 PM
Uneventfully Weaker Regardless of Durable Goods Data
Bonds were weaker in the overnight session on a combina...
Wed, Apr 24 2024, 4:10 PM
The average mortgage lender was able to offer conventional 30yr fixed rates that were very close to yesterday's levels despite bond market movement th...
Wed, Apr 24 2024, 11:23 AM
Sometimes you just have to “risk it for the biscuit.” Capital markets are, for the most part, a little more complicated than, say, a recipe for next l...
Wed, Apr 24 2024, 10:31 AM
The bond market has been decidedly more sideways after hitting longer-term yield highs last Tuesday. 10yr Treasuries have been a relatively narrow ra...
Wed, Apr 24 2024, 8:36 AM
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, fell back for the first time in...
Tue, Apr 23 2024, 4:35 PM
Straightforward Gains After PMI Data
Tuesday's session was infinitely more interesting than Monday's with th...
Tue, Apr 23 2024, 4:12 PM
Mortgage rates are driven by day to day changes in the bond market. Bonds are focused on the Fed and the economic data that shapes Fed decisions. To...
Tue, Apr 23 2024, 12:47 PM
Existing home sales posted strong gains in February while sales of new homes slipped slightly. In March each category switched directions. The U.S. Ce...
Tue, Apr 23 2024, 11:56 AM
Is it any surprise to see a strong reaction to economic data when the phrase "data dependent" has come to unequivocally rule all other approaches to u...
Tue, Apr 23 2024, 11:35 AM
“The next time you dislike your life, remember it’s all about perspective. I know someone who reads 2-3 books a week, works out twice a day, has no fi...
Mon, Apr 22 2024, 4:19 PM
Boring Monday Keeps The Focus on Next Week
Monday may as well have been a 3rd weekend day as far as the bond...
Mon, Apr 22 2024, 4:01 PM
Mortgage rates began the new week at almost exactly the same levels seen at the end of last week. There were no major events or economic reports to c...
Mon, Apr 22 2024, 11:28 AM
When I was a kid, whenever I would walk by a pay phone or newspaper vending machine, I’d check the coin change slot. Or periodically check under my Da...
Mon, Apr 22 2024, 8:47 AM
It's no secret that a vast majority of bond market movement these days occurs in response to a small handful of economic reports and the Fed's quarter...
Fri, Apr 19 2024, 4:32 PM
Sometimes Sideways is The Best Case Scenario
Granted, there was a possibility that today could have been a r...
Fri, Apr 19 2024, 4:30 PM
The Fed expected to be able to cut rates 3 times in 2024 as recently as March. Financial markets agreed. But the data that's come out since then has e...
