Thu, May 18 2023, 9:14 AM
This Commentary has made a name for itself in covering breaking, shocking news that other, lesser outlets are too timid to even mention. “One day I ho...
Wed, May 17 2023, 3:45 PM
For The Bond Market, The Waiting Will Continue
Phrases like "hurry up and wait" and "ho hum day" have been i...
Wed, May 17 2023, 3:36 PM
Mortgage rates have been moving higher since late last week, ultimately hitting the highest levels in just over 2 weeks yesterday, but that trend ende...
Wed, May 17 2023, 1:04 PM
One would think that the debt ceiling debate would be a key issue for the bond market considering Treasuries are sort of the definitive US government ...
Wed, May 17 2023, 11:39 AM
The April Residential Construction Report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development shows mixed results in April...
Wed, May 17 2023, 10:47 AM
I head to Connecticut early today for the CMBA conference, but on another personal note, congratulations to Robbie Chrisman, host of the daily mortgag...
Wed, May 17 2023, 9:51 AM
The volume of mortgage applications, which had risen by more than 6 percent the prior week lost nearly all those gains during the week ended May 12. T...
Tue, May 16 2023, 3:36 PM
Breaking Down The Paradoxical Reaction to Retail Sales
Today's Retail Sales headline may have missed the mar...
Tue, May 16 2023, 3:35 PM
Mortgage rates didn't change much today. The average lender was only a hair higher than yesterday afternoon. But that was enough for today's rates t...
Tue, May 16 2023, 2:25 PM
Home builders’ attitudes about the market for newly constructed homes continued to improve in May, partially due to the lack of available pre-owned ho...
Tue, May 16 2023, 11:41 AM
Bonds began the day in slightly stronger territory but are in the midst of a paradoxical sell-off following weaker than expected Retail Sales. Weaker...
Tue, May 16 2023, 9:19 AM
While Academy Mortgage is in the headlines again about its data breach and ransomware, from which no company seems immune, remember that, “In a democr...
Mon, May 15 2023, 4:14 PM
For those who only want to be woken up when mortgage rates make a big move down into the 5% range or back up and over 7%, you're free to go. The most...
Mon, May 15 2023, 4:01 PM
Hurry Up And Wait
The bond market is increasingly resigned to the fairly boring task of waiting to find out ...
Mon, May 15 2023, 12:28 PM
While it may be blessing for rates to be flatter and more predictable lately, the fact that the sideways range is close to long-term highs feels more ...
Mon, May 15 2023, 9:54 AM
“When I was young, I was poor. But after decades of hard work, I am no longer young.” The quip about “The greatest cause of death is birth” aside, we’...
Fri, May 12 2023, 7:33 PM
Scroll down far enough on the list of Webster's definitions of the word "consolidate," and you'll find "to form together into a compact mass." Financ...
Fri, May 12 2023, 3:36 PM
Bonds Bounce Data Confirms Range Resistance
Yesterday's bounce at 3.35% suggested that the bond market's wil...
Fri, May 12 2023, 10:02 AM
If I had a dollar for every time someone called me a boring nerd, I'd have a mean daily income of $5.64 with a standard deviation of $1.25. Turning “b...
Thu, May 11 2023, 4:59 PM
Mortgage rates inched lower again on Thursday as economic reports came out slightly weaker and bank sector concerns remain in the spotlight. Such thi...
Thu, May 11 2023, 4:50 PM
Rally or Resistance?
The bond market rallied on Thursday with 10yr yields dropping about 5bps to just under ...
Thu, May 11 2023, 11:51 AM
The market is definitely in an on-again, off-again romance with bank drama. Today was already shaping up to be an "on-again" day before the open as P...
Thu, May 11 2023, 10:51 AM
In Boston, “wicked pissa smart” is a compliment. I’ll argue that success in lending isn’t based on trying to predict where interest rates are going, s...
Wed, May 10 2023, 5:02 PM
Today marked the release of the most recent monthly installment of the Consumer Price Index (CPI)--the most closely followed inflation report and one ...
Wed, May 10 2023, 4:57 PM
Does Today's Data Change The Outlook?
There were a few rate friendly tidbits buried in the CPI data, but for...
Wed, May 10 2023, 12:25 PM
The long awaited CPI data is out and the results could scarcely be less eventful. Core monthly inflation (the most important number for markets today...
Wed, May 10 2023, 10:20 AM
“We are going to have a sales contest this month. The winners will get to enter next month’s contest.” Hardy har har, right? (Note: watch Glengarry Gl...
Wed, May 10 2023, 8:24 AM
The volume of mortgage applications increased last week for both home purchases and refinancing. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Marke...
Tue, May 9 2023, 4:27 PM
Mortgage rates rose at their fastest pace in decades in 2022 and if only one thing could take the blame, it would be inflation. There are several way...
Tue, May 9 2023, 4:16 PM
MBS Recover Some Losses Thanks to 3yr Auction
The day began with a strong bond auction in Germany setting th...
Tue, May 9 2023, 12:53 PM
A strong bond auction in Germany set the stage for US bond yields to start the day slightly lower, but sellers have been pushing yields higher steadil...
Tue, May 9 2023, 8:50 AM
Wanna track your credit score minute by minute, regardless of whether you speak English, Spanish, whatever? I have no idea why any sane person would w...
Mon, May 8 2023, 3:31 PM
Mortgage rates moved noticeably higher to start the new week--high enough that you'd have to go back to last Monday to see anything higher. That's th...
Mon, May 8 2023, 3:16 PM
Rising Rates Reiterate Relevance of The Range
Bonds were in weaker shape right from the start. Holiday clos...
Mon, May 8 2023, 12:08 PM
The bond market isn't trying on any new hats recently. Yields have been mostly deadlocked between 3.4 and 3.6%.
Econ data has been mixed. Bank...
Mon, May 8 2023, 9:28 AM
Amidst the seemingly week mass shootings and violence, individual deaths stand out. Heartfelt condolences go out to Jennifer and Dan Gilbert, of Rocke...
Fri, May 5 2023, 4:39 PM
The first week of any given month tends to have the highest concentration of economic data with the power to influence the bond market, and thus inter...
Fri, May 5 2023, 4:37 PM
Logical NFP Reaction Leaves Range Intact. Bring on CPI
The jobs report has come and gone without offering an...
Fri, May 5 2023, 12:35 PM
ADP, Consumer Confidence labor differential, ISM Manufacturing. Challenger job cuts, Philly Fed, Empire State, Continuing Jobless Claims... These are...
Fri, May 5 2023, 10:46 AM
Airbnb rolled out some changes in an effort to take business away from hotels. Mexico has about 400,000 Airbnb listings, and I mention this because to...
Thu, May 4 2023, 4:52 PM
There's likely no getting around that fact that mortgage rates will be moving noticeably--possibly substantially--in the coming days. This is due to ...
Thu, May 4 2023, 4:40 PM
Asymmetric Risk Ahead of Jobs Report
Bonds spent time on both sides of 'unchanged' today with much of it in ...
Thu, May 4 2023, 11:39 AM
After yesterday's Fed announcement and press conference, longer-term bond yields moved quickly into a position to challenge the prevailing range floor...
Thu, May 4 2023, 9:55 AM
Inflation? Yes, inflation! Yesterday I flew from San Francisco to Cody, Wyoming for the WMLA Conference, and indulged in a breakfast at SFO of a slice...
Wed, May 3 2023, 4:27 PM
The implication of "Fed rate hikes" is a constant source of confusion in the housing market. The general belief is that the Fed controls rates and if...
Wed, May 3 2023, 4:07 PM
Bonds Like Fed's Dovish Hike
There was really only one option for the Fed today: hike rates by 25bps but sig...
Wed, May 3 2023, 2:00 PM
Recent indicators point to Economic activity expanded at a modest growth pace in spending and production. the first quarter. Job gains have p...
Wed, May 3 2023, 1:32 PM
While home prices continue to fall on an annual basis, new data from Black Knight indicates that the trend may not continue beyond the short term. The...
Wed, May 3 2023, 10:45 AM
If I tried to carry my cat Myrtle around like in this short video, there would be conflict. We all continue to hear conflicting information about home...
Wed, May 3 2023, 10:42 AM
There were two big potential market movers on the calendar today: ISM non-manufacturing and the Fed announcement. ISM data is out and it is boring (r...
