Wed, Dec 11 2024, 10:52 AM
Today's headline and core CPI readings were both perfectly in line with forecasts. After the data came out, bonds rallied and Fed Funds Futures moved...
Tue, Dec 10 2024, 4:13 PM
Ready For Anything After Pre-CPI Consolidation
Bonds were arguably consolidating ahead of last Friday's jobs...
Tue, Dec 10 2024, 3:34 PM
Between November 18th and December 6th, the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate moved down from 7.08 to 6.68. A 0.40% drop is rather significan...
Tue, Dec 10 2024, 12:03 PM
“To the paranoid people who check behind shower curtains for murderers: if you find one, what's your plan?” What’s the Fed’s plan? The Federal Reserve...
Tue, Dec 10 2024, 10:40 AM
Yesterday's closing commentary also noted "inconsequential weakness," and there's not really a better way to refer to this morning's modest losses. O...
Mon, Dec 9 2024, 5:02 PM
Inconsequential Weakness
Bonds lost a moderate amount of ground on Monday with 10yr yields moving back above...
Mon, Dec 9 2024, 4:26 PM
Mortgage rates ended last week with an impressive drop to the lowest levels in more than a month and a half. Today's rates ended up being the 2nd low...
Mon, Dec 9 2024, 11:52 AM
“Wi-Fi outages are the new snow days!” Without the internet or cable, would we return to relying on newspapers, radios, and network channels for news?...
Mon, Dec 9 2024, 10:38 AM
Up until last Friday, 10yr yields closed at 4.17% for 5 days in a row. While that's technically "resistance," we're not complaining considering that's...
Fri, Dec 6 2024, 4:57 PM
Solid Conclusion to a Solid Week. Has The Tide Turned?
After Thanksgiving week introduced a potential breako...
Fri, Dec 6 2024, 4:29 PM
As of last week, rates were showing some signs of resilience, but they had to wait for the true test from this week's jobs report. Spoiler alert: they...
Fri, Dec 6 2024, 11:51 AM
“Today’s three-year-olds can switch on laptops and open their favorite apps. When I was three, I ate mud.” Times change. Remember when homeowner’s ins...
Fri, Dec 6 2024, 9:52 AM
We all know that today's jobs report is the most important economic data on an given month. We also know that a higher payroll count tends to be bad f...
Thu, Dec 5 2024, 4:10 PM
Calm Week So Far, But All Bets Are Off After Jobs Report
Bonds were slightly weaker overnight and did just a...
Thu, Dec 5 2024, 3:58 PM
It's been a remarkably calm week for mortgage rates, and a fairly decent one relative to several recent examples. The average top tier 30yr fixed rat...
Thu, Dec 5 2024, 11:25 AM
Don’t steal packages off of porches… you never know what will be inside them… A very low-tech attempt at dissuading thieves. On the flip side, what do...
Thu, Dec 5 2024, 8:46 AM
Jobless Claims
224k vs 215k f'cast, 213k prev
Continued Claims
1871k vs 1910k f'cast, 1896k prev
At first glance, the 224k figure...
Wed, Dec 4 2024, 4:34 PM
No Whammies From Powell as Rates Rally on ISM Data
Bonds came away from this morning's economic data with a ...
Wed, Dec 4 2024, 4:23 PM
Mortgage lenders generally try to avoid setting rates more than once per day, but they will make changes if the underlying bond market is moving enoug...
Wed, Dec 4 2024, 12:00 PM
Bonds drifted steadily higher in yield during the overnight session with most of the weakness seen after European markets opened. The net effect was r...
Wed, Dec 4 2024, 11:07 AM
My cat Myrtle never had to worry too much about things like… money. Elon Musk, however, can’t seem to catch a break and his $56 billion (yes, with a “...
Tue, Dec 3 2024, 3:53 PM
Friendly Fed Comments No Match For The Range
The day began with a bond rally courtesy of geopolitical headli...
Tue, Dec 3 2024, 3:30 PM
The bond market is the primary driver of mortgage rate movement and normally, "weakness" equates to higher rates. Bonds are slightly weaker today com...
Tue, Dec 3 2024, 11:59 AM
Tis the season to have some fun, right? How about we start with this interesting musical duo? While the CFPB’s proposal addressing the selling of data...
Tue, Dec 3 2024, 9:57 AM
Of all of the motivations in all the markets, this one had to walk into ours. Or perhaps it rolled in on tank tracks. Just over an hour ago, South K...
Mon, Dec 2 2024, 4:42 PM
Bonds Hold Vast Majority of Last Week's Gains
The most significant thing that happened as the market returne...
Mon, Dec 2 2024, 4:34 PM
Mortgage rates remain elevated relative to the levels seen in September and early October, but they've definitely moved down a bit from their recent h...
Mon, Dec 2 2024, 11:51 AM
I recall Zillow doing a study on the color of the front door impacting sales price. What does $22.5 million get you in Charleston, SC, especially if t...
Mon, Dec 2 2024, 9:18 AM
It can be a bit tricky to understand the roll of various forms of positioning when it comes to otherwise inexplicable movement in the bond market. It...
Fri, Nov 29 2024, 12:23 PM
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) released its weekly application survey results on Wednesday. The highlight was a 12.43% increase in purchase a...
Fri, Nov 29 2024, 8:18 AM
“I was late to my cannibal family's Thanksgiving dinner. I got the cold shoulder.” LOs are experts on family life and demographics. The share of bot...
Wed, Nov 27 2024, 3:17 PM
Stronger Bonds, Before and After (And Regardless of) Economic Data
Bonds were stronger overnight with 10yr y...
Wed, Nov 27 2024, 2:53 PM
The interest rate market continues the healing process after taking heavy damage in October. During the course of that month, the average top tier co...
Wed, Nov 27 2024, 11:39 AM
“Rob, my borrowers would be really happy with rates below 7 percent. When will we get there?” A wise economist with the MBA once told me, “If you’re g...
Wed, Nov 27 2024, 9:18 AM
Although this morning contained the week's most active slate of economic data, it has completely failed to inspire even the most modest of responses i...
Tue, Nov 26 2024, 3:17 PM
No Major Data. No Major Drama
While today's economic calendar was not necessarily "empty," it may as well ha...
Tue, Nov 26 2024, 2:12 PM
Although there was a busier calendar of economic data today, mortgage rates are little changed after dropping at the fastest pace in several weeks to ...
Tue, Nov 26 2024, 11:47 AM
“If there's anyone out there who has no family and is planning to stay home alone this Thanksgiving, please let me know. I need to borrow some chairs....
Tue, Nov 26 2024, 10:31 AM
Even on a good day, the Census Bureau's New Residential Sales report has a notoriously wide margin of error. But today's 12.8% margin of error isn't ...
Tue, Nov 26 2024, 9:56 AM
There are two key, big picture home price indices in the U.S. They come out every month, but with a 2 month lag. That means we're getting September'...
Tue, Nov 26 2024, 9:50 AM
Monday brought a rare event for the bond market in the recent context as yields fell throughout the day and never really thought about bouncing. It wa...
Mon, Nov 25 2024, 4:05 PM
Come For The Big Rally, Stay For The Staying Power
Bonds rallied sharply on Monday. It wasn't the first tim...
Mon, Nov 25 2024, 3:32 PM
Last Monday, mortgage rates were near the highest levels in more than 3 months. A week later, and the average lender is right in line with the lowest...
Mon, Nov 25 2024, 11:48 AM
“Pro tip” to start the week: Be sure to bring up politics at your family's Thanksgiving dinner. You'll save a lot of money on Christmas gifts. A tip t...
Mon, Nov 25 2024, 8:54 AM
Of all of Trump's political appointees, Treasury Secretary is the most consequential for the bond market ("Treasury" is right in the title, after all!...
Fri, Nov 22 2024, 4:26 PM
Getting Back to Normal, For a Few Days Anyway
After a decidedly abnormal 6 weeks beginning in early October,...
Fri, Nov 22 2024, 3:01 PM
Starting in early October, mortgage rates experienced significant volatility, meaning the average day over day change was much bigger than normal. Wh...
Fri, Nov 22 2024, 12:03 PM
The bond market has been forced to take the victories that are within reach. As November winds down, the best victory we could have hoped for was the...
Fri, Nov 22 2024, 11:48 AM
Want a house for a dollar? Italy has them… figure out the impact on comps for appraisals! To the best of my knowledge, my cat Myrtle never lived in It...
