Mon, Jul 17 2023, 4:17 PM
Slightly Stronger, Sideways, and Still Waiting
Monday's trading session offered little by way of anything si...
Mon, Jul 17 2023, 12:33 PM
With the heightened focus on economic data as a means to track progress on the Fed's inflation-fighting policies, and the reality of the data calendar...
Mon, Jul 17 2023, 10:25 AM
I am often asked about the jumbo segment of our business. Frankly, aside from the coasts and a couple cities in-between, much of the nation is not ove...
Fri, Jul 14 2023, 4:12 PM
Good Times Still Mostly Rolling Despite Token Correction on Friday
Bonds sold off on Friday, with the easies...
Fri, Jul 14 2023, 3:51 PM
Mortgage rates spiked abruptly last week after several economic reports showed the economy doing better than expected. Now this week, key inflation da...
Fri, Jul 14 2023, 11:59 AM
Bonds rallied fairly hard during the first four days of the week, entirely restoring the ground lost in the previous week. Yesterday afternoon, we di...
Fri, Jul 14 2023, 10:48 AM
“If they raise the interest rates one more time, you're going to hear Janet Yellen.” Much of the talk in the hallways here at the California Associati...
Thu, Jul 13 2023, 5:13 PM
Farther vs further... One is for distance and the other means "additional/additionally." The dictionary may disagree, but only because too many of y...
Thu, Jul 13 2023, 4:58 PM
Willingness to Rally Without Much Motivation
Bonds put in a nice day of gains after a mixed performance in t...
Thu, Jul 13 2023, 11:50 AM
Thursday begins with 2 data points that could be traded either way. In one corner, we have another resilient reading in the Jobless Claims data (237k...
Thu, Jul 13 2023, 10:38 AM
As rumors continue to swirl regarding the purchase of a well-known Southeastern Texas mortgage bank, lenders are watching the current drop in rates. I...
Wed, Jul 12 2023, 3:47 PM
Mortgage rates had been moving higher fairly rapidly over the past 2 weeks with the average lender easily into the 7% range for a top tier conventiona...
Wed, Jul 12 2023, 3:40 PM
Great Reaction to CPI, But What's Next?
Today's CPI data serves the important role of pushing back on the na...
Wed, Jul 12 2023, 10:49 AM
After plenty of anticipation over the past few days, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) arrived this morning with fairly good news for the bond market. C...
Wed, Jul 12 2023, 10:39 AM
Who’s in your wallet? I imagine every compliance person at every bank, large and small, are once again reviewing their policies after the Consumer Fin...
Wed, Jul 12 2023, 9:55 AM
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reports a slight increase in the volume of mortgage applications during the week ended July 7. MBA’s seasonally...
Tue, Jul 11 2023, 3:48 PM
Bonds Will Rally After CPI (Or They'll Sell Off)
Let's not build up the upcoming CPI data too much. It's im...
Tue, Jul 11 2023, 3:47 PM
While experts might be able to debate the underlying causes, they can all agree that inflation is the key reason that rates skyrocketed at the fastest...
Tue, Jul 11 2023, 10:05 AM
Don’t forget that today, 7-11, is Free Slurpee Day, but that this Sunday the price of a first-class mail stamp is going up from 63 cents to 66 cents, ...
Tue, Jul 11 2023, 9:43 AM
After last Friday's jobs report, it was clear that we'd be waiting for this Wednesday's CPI data as the next relevant input for the bond market. Desp...
Mon, Jul 10 2023, 4:10 PM
The most important thing to know about mortgage rates so far this week is that they lived through last week. Living through last week means rates rea...
Mon, Jul 10 2023, 3:53 PM
Sideways at Weak Levels Despite Monday's Rally
If we wanted to make the case for anything about the first tw...
Mon, Jul 10 2023, 2:29 PM
The Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for May doesn’t even hint at a housing crisis on the horizon. Affordability is again (or maybe still) a concern, ...
Mon, Jul 10 2023, 11:30 AM
The week begins with bonds in modestly stronger territory after a bit of initial volatility. None of the trading after last Friday's NFP has mattered...
Mon, Jul 10 2023, 10:05 AM
“The world is going to come to an end tonight at midnight. Tune in tomorrow to see if it did!” Sensationalist headlines or bad predictions are tiresom...
Fri, Jul 7 2023, 6:10 PM
Until a few weeks ago, it looked like we might have seen the last of 7% mortgage rates, but the last 2 weeks have been brutal. The culprit has been a ...
Fri, Jul 7 2023, 4:08 PM
NFP Threads The Needle, But Doesn't Deliver a Rally
Things could have gone better or worse today following t...
Fri, Jul 7 2023, 12:13 PM
Despite missing the forecast by just a bit, today's NFP number is largely as expected (209k vs 225k f'cast and unemployment 3.6 vs 3.6). Bonds initia...
Fri, Jul 7 2023, 10:32 AM
What’s our Federal Reserve concerned about? I was in a restaurant last night in Truckee, California, and was shown the table and handed the menu. When...
Thu, Jul 6 2023, 4:51 PM
It seems like just last week (because it was) we were commenting on the extreme LACK of volatility in the mortgage rate landscape. Starting last Thur...
Thu, Jul 6 2023, 4:29 PM
Data Confirms Bond Market Fears
Yesterday's recap suggested that bonds were bracing for impact from incoming...
Thu, Jul 6 2023, 11:29 AM
We already know that bonds are especially sensitive to economic data right now, and we knew that today offered an uncommonly condensed schedule with s...
Thu, Jul 6 2023, 10:35 AM
Apparently China is not paying interest on its sovereign debt… What is it waiting for? If you’re waiting for lower rates to give your business a “shot...
Thu, Jul 6 2023, 8:37 AM
The volume of mortgage applications fell during the last week of June as compared to the prior week which had contained an adjustment to account for t...
Wed, Jul 5 2023, 3:59 PM
While the mainstream mortgage rate indices continue operating in the mid-to-upper 6% range, actual rates are moving higher into the 7% range by the ti...
Wed, Jul 5 2023, 3:51 PM
Bonds Brace For Impact From Data
Bonds sold off somewhat abruptly on Wednesday with little by way of overt j...
Wed, Jul 5 2023, 12:00 PM
It may be Wednesday--a day that typically marks the midpoint of the bond market's work week--and it may be the week of the month with several of the b...
Wed, Jul 5 2023, 9:29 AM
Hey, I’ve got news for you: 2023 is half over. Sometimes reality bites, and vendors and lenders can’t sit there, wringing their hands, waiting for thi...
Mon, Jul 3 2023, 11:55 AM
Monday brings a courtesy trading day for bond market participants. Those who want/need to trade can do so while those who wanted the 4 day weekend do...
Mon, Jul 3 2023, 10:25 AM
The other night my cat Myrtle began squeaking in her sleep and moving her paws. She was either dreaming about a Chupacabra, a CFPB exam, or the Depart...
Fri, Jun 30 2023, 4:20 PM
Month/Quarter-End Came Early
As we witness the absolute lack of any meaningful volatility at the 3pm CME clo...
Fri, Jun 30 2023, 10:22 AM
We’re halfway through 2023 already. Time flies. It doesn’t seem that long ago when I was a kid and I had to learn how to make my own bowl of cereal wi...
Fri, Jun 30 2023, 9:27 AM
Whereas Thursday's data was clearly bad for bonds/rates (ultimately creating a challenge to the 3.84 range ceiling), Friday's key morning data is rela...
Thu, Jun 29 2023, 4:50 PM
Despite other indices showing the average 30yr fixed rate in the 6.7 range, the actual average (after accounting for points) is once again over 7%. W...
Thu, Jun 29 2023, 4:33 PM
Bonds Crushed by Data, But Technically Still in The Range
At many points in the past week, we've lamented th...
Thu, Jun 29 2023, 10:24 AM
A “crisis” is a time of intense difficulty, trouble, or danger. Think calamity, catastrophe, or disaster. The word makes for attention-grabbing headli...
Thu, Jun 29 2023, 9:44 AM
Technical analysis provides an easy entry point for folks who want to talk about what the markets might do next. It is made all the more alluring due...
Wed, Jun 28 2023, 4:25 PM
The bond market is waiting for bigger news on inflation and the economy, and traders aren't pretending otherwise. Why does that matter? Traders dete...
Wed, Jun 28 2023, 4:17 PM
Modest Relief Rally as Headline Risk Comes and Goes
Unlike yesterday, bonds didn't have any market moving ec...
Wed, Jun 28 2023, 12:54 PM
Unlike yesterday, there is no meaningful economic data to move the needle this morning. Bonds continue biding their time, waiting for "meaningful." ...
