Wed, Jul 17 2024, 11:28 AM
Just because an economic calendar is full doesn't mean it's of any major importance to the bond market. Today fits the bill with the two economic hea...
Wed, Jul 17 2024, 8:35 AM
Mortgage application activity staged a moderately strong recovery from the previous holiday-shortened week, although the recovery was attributable s...
Tue, Jul 16 2024, 4:16 PM
Bonds Shake Off Retail Sales Impact to End Stronger
This morning's Retail Sales data may have been right in ...
Tue, Jul 16 2024, 4:00 PM
When is a defeat not really a defeat? Mortgage rates have an idea. They're fresh off an incredibly rare 8 day winning streak that took the average 3...
Tue, Jul 16 2024, 3:09 PM
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) blamed high interest for lagging new home sales and the resulting dampened industry confidence in bui...
Tue, Jul 16 2024, 11:29 AM
The percentage of refinances of overall volume has fallen dramatically from a few years ago, leaving purchases to be the basis of business out there. ...
Tue, Jul 16 2024, 10:41 AM
Retail Sales was/is the biggest data point of the week and it came out perfectly unchanged. This was as-expected according to some data aggregators a...
Mon, Jul 15 2024, 4:45 PM
The Sun Also Sets on Bond Rallies
Don't worry, the headline is much more dire than the underlying message. ...
Mon, Jul 15 2024, 4:36 PM
We occasionally reference 5 day winning streaks for mortgage rates as the sort of uncommon occurrence that greatly increases the odds of at least a te...
Mon, Jul 15 2024, 11:40 AM
While there's no way objectively quantify the political ramifications of the failed assassination attempt on former President Trump over the weekend, ...
Mon, Jul 15 2024, 11:39 AM
Yes, I know that this is a mortgage commentary, but some things are way above that. (Warning: tissues may be required; what’s happened legislatively s...
Fri, Jul 12 2024, 4:44 PM
Pleasant PPI Paradox Leaves This Week's Big Victory in Focus
The Producer Price Index (PPI) introduced a bri...
Fri, Jul 12 2024, 4:23 PM
Yesterday was all about the CONSUMER Price Index (CPI), which helped mortgage rates drop at the 2nd fastest pace of the year. Today brough the PRODUC...
Fri, Jul 12 2024, 11:40 AM
The Producer Price Index (PPI) is certainly not in the same league as CPI when it comes to bond market impact, but there have been several notable rea...
Fri, Jul 12 2024, 11:37 AM
“I’m sorry, but you can’t always be ‘experiencing a higher volume of calls than average.’ That’s not how averages work.” The “average” person has a st...
Thu, Jul 11 2024, 3:53 PM
Rates were prepared to make a big move in one direction or the other heading into today's high stakes inflation data. Fortunately, the Consumer Price...
Thu, Jul 11 2024, 4:42 PM
Very Restrained Bond Rally Considering The Data's Implications
Today's CPI data was hotly anticipated, to sa...
Thu, Jul 11 2024, 11:40 AM
I have good news and bad news, which do you normally prefer receiving first? Today (7/11) is Slurpee Day at 7-Eleven (good news), where Citigroup exec...
Thu, Jul 11 2024, 10:47 AM
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the most important economic report for the bond market these days. The most important line item in that report is m...
Wed, Jul 10 2024, 4:04 PM
No New Inspiration Ahead of Thursday's CPI
We've officially run out of ways to characterize the boring, side...
Wed, Jul 10 2024, 3:44 PM
Mortgage rates have been in a narrow range for more than a month now with the average top tier 30yr fixed rate staying within striking distance of the...
Wed, Jul 10 2024, 11:48 AM
“The only time I get asked for sex is on application forms.” Ba-dum-ching! Speaking of applications, most lenders will agree that the loan officer sho...
Wed, Jul 10 2024, 11:07 AM
The most recent sideways slide began just before noon last Friday. Bonds had rallied in response to the jobs report with 10's closing at 4.29%. Sinc...
Wed, Jul 10 2024, 8:06 AM
Mortgage applications declined slightly on a seasonally adjusted basis last week but plummeted on an unadjusted basis during the July 4th week. The we...
Tue, Jul 9 2024, 4:29 PM
MBS Outperform. Powell Punts. Waiting on CPI
Bonds showed slightly more notable signs of life this morning w...
Tue, Jul 9 2024, 4:08 PM
Mortgage rates are based on movement in the bond market and bonds haven't been moving much over the past 3 days. That's resulted in very little chang...
Tue, Jul 9 2024, 11:43 AM
“Your call is important to us. Please stay on the line until it is no longer important to you.” To state the obvious, serving customers can make or br...
Tue, Jul 9 2024, 9:54 AM
The new week is one day less new today, but no less sideways so far. Yields rose microscopically in the overnight session, but even that is a generou...
Mon, Jul 8 2024, 4:10 PM
Uneventful Monday Leaves Bonds Little Changed
It was a quintessential summertime Monday to start the new wee...
Mon, Jul 8 2024, 3:50 PM
Apart from July 1st, mortgage rates have fallen every day so far this month. The counterpoint is that only adds up to 4 business days so far. The o...
Mon, Jul 8 2024, 11:48 AM
During a recent password audit, it was found that a blonde was using the following password: "MickeyMinniePlutoHueyLouieDeweyDonaldGoofySacramento". W...
Mon, Jul 8 2024, 10:42 AM
Bonds are finding their range in a perfectly inoffensive way to begin the new week. That's a victory considering a bit of weakness is never a surpris...
Fri, Jul 5 2024, 4:33 PM
Orderly, Logical Rally as Bonds Reiterate Data Dependence
Today's recap isn't any different than the morning...
Fri, Jul 5 2024, 4:21 PM
The average top tier 30yr fixed rate may not be back under 7% just yet, but as of Friday, it is back below the levels seen last Friday. That fact is ...
Fri, Jul 5 2024, 11:47 AM
Before the internet, everything worked fine without it, right? Just ask the members, whether they be depositors or borrowers, of credit union Patelco,...
Fri, Jul 5 2024, 11:24 AM
Today's playbook was fairly straightforward with bonds being likely to move in the direction suggested by the jobs report. The only challenge would h...
Wed, Jul 3 2024, 2:18 PM
Data Over Politics, For Now
Several days ago, we were debating whether the presidential debate or the month-...
Wed, Jul 3 2024, 2:09 PM
"Data dependent" is one of the most common phrases heard from the Federal Reserve these days when it comes to rate-setting policy. And while the Fed ...
Wed, Jul 3 2024, 11:43 AM
Did you know that there were 2.5 million estimated people living in the newly independent nation of the United States in July 1776? Per the Census Bur...
Wed, Jul 3 2024, 11:42 AM
The bond market will close at 2pm instead of 5pm today as a part of the Independence Day holiday (fully closed tomorrow). With only a few hours left,...
Wed, Jul 3 2024, 8:20 AM
Higher interest rates knocked mortgage application volume back last week. But, while purchase volume appears to lose ground year-over-year, refinancin...
Tue, Jul 2 2024, 5:00 PM
Ultimately a Very Drama-Free Day; Back to Watching Data
Tuesday helped buck the recent trend of frustratingl...
Tue, Jul 2 2024, 4:48 PM
As is often the case with internet headlines these days, the headline overstates the reality on the ground--or at least over-dramatizes it. Consider...
Tue, Jul 2 2024, 11:37 AM
It's been an interesting and frustrating couple of days for the bond market with yields spiking for reasons that leave many bond watchers guessing. A...
Tue, Jul 2 2024, 11:36 AM
Cracker Jacks, Quaker Oats, Ferris Wheels, and 1893 Chicago have something in common. World’s Fairs, and World’s Expos, have pretty much gone away due...
Mon, Jul 1 2024, 5:28 PM
Changing The Narrative to Fit The Market Movement
Often, if not most of the time, one can observe the core i...
Mon, Jul 1 2024, 5:09 PM
Mortgage rates continued their frustrating and somewhat perplexing move higher today, thus bringing the average lender close to the highest levels sin...
Mon, Jul 1 2024, 11:53 AM
Do you know anyone in a “Situationship?” You know, a romantic or sexual relationship that is not considered to be formal or established? People in man...
Mon, Jul 1 2024, 11:45 AM
Friday's trading session was marked by a surprisingly weak reaction to economic data that should have helped bonds. In fact, it did at first, but thi...
Fri, Jun 28 2024, 5:48 PM
The week began with a distinct absence of interest rate volatility, but things changed in a big way by Friday--at least compared to the previous week ...
