Fri, Feb 24 2023, 5:10 PM
Fri, Feb 24 2023, 5:08 PM
Weaker After PCE Data, But it Could Have Been Worse
PCE Inflation data has been relegated to an "occasional ...
Fri, Feb 24 2023, 1:19 PM
New home sales edged a little further out of a lengthy slump in January, topping 600,000 units for the second straight month. The U.S. Census Bureau a...
Fri, Feb 24 2023, 12:31 PM
Both Wednesday and Thursday saw bonds hold their ground and make modest intraday improvements. Both days contributed to the possibility that Tuesday'...
Fri, Feb 24 2023, 10:32 AM
As attendees from the MBA’s servicing conference headed home this week, they may have learned that some airport lounges are cutting back on free guest...
Thu, Feb 23 2023, 4:01 PM
We keep pretty timely track of mortgage rates around here--timely enough to account for several changes on any given day. As such, we mean it when we...
Thu, Feb 23 2023, 3:52 PM
Ceiling Signs or Is It a Trap?
Bonds began the day in weaker territory with extra selling signals following ...
Thu, Feb 23 2023, 12:41 PM
At some point during the current selling spree, bonds will find a point of equilibrium where traders feel they've adequately protected themselves from...
Thu, Feb 23 2023, 10:05 AM
Remember, not all math puns are terrible...just sum. Analyzing residential servicing is a combination of math and psychology. If you were an instituti...
Wed, Feb 22 2023, 5:25 PM
The Federal Reserve directly controls the shortest term lending rates. Mortgage rates are dictated by longer-term bonds in the open market, but trade...
Wed, Feb 22 2023, 3:55 PM
This Is How They Get Ya!
Bonds weathered the storm of a Treasury auction and the Fed meeting minutes today w...
Wed, Feb 22 2023, 2:14 PM
Earlier this morning, HUD released details of a long-anticipated plan to reduce the annual MIP (mortgage insurance premiums) that are currently charge...
Wed, Feb 22 2023, 12:05 PM
When you see the phrase "Fed Minutes" don't confuse it for the "Fed Announcement." Both events involve a Fed meeting, but one of these things is not ...
Wed, Feb 22 2023, 10:27 AM
The MBA’s servicing conference is taking place, and it is an important subject, along with the impact of the 30bp cut in MIP for FHA borrowers. Owning...
Wed, Feb 22 2023, 8:35 AM
Mortgage application volume took a big hit last week. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of that volume...
Tue, Feb 21 2023, 4:15 PM
On November 9th, 2022, the average lender was quoting 30yr fixed rates well over 7%. On day later, that figure dropped to 6.625%. It was one of the ...
Tue, Feb 21 2023, 4:05 PM
Data Fuels Ongoing Scramble Toward Higher Rates
Almost the entire month of February has been a mad dash from...
Tue, Feb 21 2023, 2:21 PM
Existing home sales data was released this morning by the National Association of Realtors for the month of January. It was fairly close to forecasts...
Tue, Feb 21 2023, 11:49 AM
Heading into the 3 day weekend, we knew there was a risk that Friday's rally was driven by position squaring (i.e. traders buying bonds in order to co...
Tue, Feb 21 2023, 10:24 AM
Not every house is a 3 bedroom, 2 bath, single story subdivision home. Appraisers and underwriters aren’t big fans of places that aren’t, due to the l...
Fri, Feb 17 2023, 4:20 PM
Legit Buying Demand or Position Squaring?
"Position squaring" is fancy market jargon that refers to closing ...
Fri, Feb 17 2023, 10:07 AM
Nature is full of trivia. The moon moves about two inches away from the Earth each year. The Earth gets 100 tons heavier every day due to falling spac...
Fri, Feb 17 2023, 9:42 AM
The current landscape is fairly simple. The bond market has been in the midst of a "repricing" event following the jobs report at the beginning of th...
Thu, Feb 16 2023, 3:31 PM
Another Day, Another Sell-Off
Bonds may not have sold off in an overly excessive manner today, but they sold...
Thu, Feb 16 2023, 2:53 PM
First off, I apologize. You're right. How would I know exactly what you've been told about mortgage rates today? I can only draw the same sort of g...
Thu, Feb 16 2023, 2:35 PM
It seems that most of the stories I write on home sales and construction numbers begin with a slightly different iteration of the same core thought: t...
Thu, Feb 16 2023, 9:27 AM
The bond market has specialized in playing defense for most of February as economic data and consistently hawkish Fed messaging paints a bleak pictur...
Thu, Feb 16 2023, 9:21 AM
Raquel Welch, who passed away yesterday, was an icon in the 60s and 70s. Mick Jagger was as well, and sang, “Just My Imagination” many years ago. But ...
Wed, Feb 15 2023, 3:58 PM
Rates have been rising at a reasonably quick pace for most of February. The process began in earnest after labor market data on February 3rd. Market...
Wed, Feb 15 2023, 3:40 PM
More Yield Curve Musings and Retail Sales Reaction
Retail Sales was today's big ticket data point and it cam...
Wed, Feb 15 2023, 1:35 PM
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) shot higher in February, achieving a second monthly gain. NAHB...
Wed, Feb 15 2023, 12:08 PM
Yesterday's CPI data validated the Fed's constant refrain regarding persistent inflation. This morning's Retail Sales data (for the month of January)...
Wed, Feb 15 2023, 10:13 AM
“I had a cousin who created a cold air balloon. But it never took off.” Like the intricacies of residential lending, few people are aware of the world...
Wed, Feb 15 2023, 8:30 AM
It was unrealistic to expect last week’s strong increase in mortgage activity to be sustainable in the current volatile rate environment, and indeed i...
Tue, Feb 14 2023, 3:25 PM
More Data to Prove The Fed's Point; Rates Don't Like It
It will take one of two things for the current risin...
Tue, Feb 14 2023, 3:11 PM
The Fed generally wants annual inflation to be around 2% at the core level. "Core" is fancy market jargon for an economic metric that excludes some o...
Tue, Feb 14 2023, 10:12 AM
I am in Reno today, Spokane tomorrow, but I spent much of last week in Chicago which is very much a melting pot of languages. One can walk down the st...
Tue, Feb 14 2023, 9:53 AM
Given that today's bond trading volume has already eclipsed yesterday's, it's fair to say traders were every bit as anxious to trade this data as we e...
Mon, Feb 13 2023, 5:20 PM
Before you let the promise of volatility alarm you, keep in mind that it cuts both ways. In other words, mortgage rate volatility can result in rates...
Mon, Feb 13 2023, 4:14 PM
Which CPI Number Matters Most and How Wide is The Potential Range of Reactions?
Monday turned out to be an i...
Mon, Feb 13 2023, 1:03 PM
Black Knight’s Mortgage Origination’s Market Monitor confirms that the surge in rate lock volumes noted earlier in the month continued through the e...
Mon, Feb 13 2023, 12:11 PM
Bonds got a good amount of selling out of the way last week as markets finally picked up what the Fed has been putting down for months. All it took w...
Mon, Feb 13 2023, 9:59 AM
Tomorrow is Valentine’s Day, traditionally associated with love. But on the opposite side of the spectrum, an Ohio animal shelter is offering to write...
Fri, Feb 10 2023, 4:51 PM
Fri, Feb 10 2023, 4:15 PM
Bonds Keep Fading; Cue The CPI Anxiety
This morning's commentary headline was "if bonds aren't rallying, the...
Fri, Feb 10 2023, 11:25 AM
At the risk of repeating a common thesis in recent days, bonds had a choice to make at the end of January. The decision was whether or not a rally of...
Fri, Feb 10 2023, 9:17 AM
As I type this piece on Friday morning, I am at the O’Hare aerodrome for a flight from Chicago to San Francisco. O’Hare is packed and humming… What ec...
Thu, Feb 9 2023, 3:11 PM
Gains Evaporate After Weaker Auction; Sideways Volatility Expected Ahead of CPI
CPI, NFP, CPI, Fed Day, NFP,...
Thu, Feb 9 2023, 1:58 PM
In general, this has been a week of correction and reversal for mortgage rates. After hitting the lowest levels in more than 4 months last week, they...
Thu, Feb 9 2023, 12:17 PM
The order of business this week has been fairly simple. The market had been telling itself that the Fed would end up cutting rates by the end of 2023...
