Tue, Mar 14 2023, 10:24 AM
Pi Day has come around once again, which is also, coincidentally, Albert Einstein’s birthday. As I head to Lexington for the MBA Kentucky Education Co...
Tue, Mar 14 2023, 9:47 AM
What a difference a little systemic banking crisis makes! Without the last 3 business days, today's CPI data may well have tipped the scales toward a...
Mon, Mar 13 2023, 4:13 PM
Breaking Down the Big Move in Rates and Considering The Road Ahead
The 2nd and 3rd largest bank failures in ...
Mon, Mar 13 2023, 2:53 PM
If you're just getting caught up or otherwise haven't heard, the biggest news in financial markets since last Friday has been the precipitous failure ...
Mon, Mar 13 2023, 9:23 AM
Where should we start the week? How about how predictions and forecasts are nearly worthless when they’re out of date one week later? How about with a...
Mon, Mar 13 2023, 8:59 AM
Despite the announcement of a Fed/Treasury/FDIC backstop for SVB and Signature Bank, financial markets are trading as if current events imply a sea ch...
Fri, Mar 10 2023, 3:20 PM
SVB > NFP = Supermassive Bond Rally
In a matter of 48 hours, Silicon Valley Bank has gone from being a compa...
Fri, Mar 10 2023, 12:36 PM
The most notable development on jobs day has stunningly turned out to be the trading that came before the jobs report in the overnight session. Bonds...
Fri, Mar 10 2023, 9:34 AM
Julie C. writes, “Did you know that every “c” in “Pacific Ocean” is pronounced differently?” As I head to Northern California, which borders the Pacif...
Thu, Mar 9 2023, 3:38 PM
While the Federal Reserve doesn't directly dictate mortgage rates, the outlook for Fed rate hikes matters a great deal. In the days and weeks leading...
Thu, Mar 9 2023, 3:24 PM
Thursday Was Nice, But It's All About Friday
There wasn't much for the bond market to sink its teeth into on...
Thu, Mar 9 2023, 9:47 AM
I wonder if Fed Chair Jerome Powell ever hums to himself, “Everybody’s talking at me, I can’t hear a word they’re saying…” (Angelina Jolie’s father, J...
Thu, Mar 9 2023, 9:11 AM
After a ho-hum and mostly sideways overnight session, bonds are starting the day with a surprisingly swift reaction to the Jobless Claims data. While...
Wed, Mar 8 2023, 4:40 PM
There's probably not going to be any way around it. However volatile rates may have been in the past 2 weeks, they're at risk of much larger swings i...
Wed, Mar 8 2023, 4:26 PM
Slightly Weaker, But It Could Have Been Worse
Bonds are heading out the door in only moderately weaker terri...
Wed, Mar 8 2023, 11:20 AM
The world "resilient" has frequently been repeated in the commentary over the past two weeks, and today is already shaping up to be worth adding to th...
Wed, Mar 8 2023, 9:00 AM
Last week my son asked if I had seen the dog bowl. I replied, “I didn’t know he could!” The weather here in Palm Springs, California is much different...
Wed, Mar 8 2023, 8:26 AM
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 7.4 percent on a seas...
Tue, Mar 7 2023, 4:11 PM
Jerome Powell is the Chair of the Federal Reserve--the entity that sets overnight lending rates in an attempt to keep inflation in a low, stable range...
Tue, Mar 7 2023, 3:53 PM
Rate Hike Expectations Ramp Up Post Powell
Even though Fed Chair Powell didn't say anything remarkably new o...
Tue, Mar 7 2023, 10:23 AM
While the musical world mourns the loss of Gary Rossington, the last original Lynyrd Skynyrd band member, and I head to San Diego this morning for the...
Tue, Mar 7 2023, 9:25 AM
5 weeks ago, markets digested a very ho-hum Fed announcement and rate hike, eventually rallying to the prevailing range floor just under 3.40% in 10yr...
Mon, Mar 6 2023, 4:11 PM
Stronger Start Gives Way to Weaker Finish
Bonds improved in overnight trading with most of the gains seen du...
Mon, Mar 6 2023, 4:10 PM
Mortgage rates have been hovering around the highest levels in months over the past 2 weeks, but had made a bit of progress by the end of last week. ...
Mon, Mar 6 2023, 3:27 PM
Black Knight releases a robust collection of mortgage/housing info each month via its Mortgage Monitor report. There are always more charts than we h...
Mon, Mar 6 2023, 12:21 PM
Bonds are starting out the new week with an overnight rally offset by domestic selling pressure. Yields were as low as 3.90 right as US traders were ...
Mon, Mar 6 2023, 9:11 AM
Some things are nearly timeless, like this annual list of “10 Things to Do,” most of which can be applied any year. Here in Las Vegas, the time of sun...
Fri, Mar 3 2023, 4:43 PM
It's not a decisive victory, but rather, a nice way to end a week that had previously seen rates pushed over 7% for the first time in months. The bon...
Fri, Mar 3 2023, 4:36 PM
Bonds Start Strong and Finish Stronger Despite Decent Data
Today's trading action flew in the face of the pr...
Fri, Mar 3 2023, 1:43 PM
Bonds rallied nicely in the overnight session and extended the gains in the first few hours of domestic trading. The ISM Services data came in just a...
Fri, Mar 3 2023, 9:53 AM
I won’t sugar coat this. Here’s some rough news for lenders and LOs: With plenty of quant jocks to slice and dice numbers, Goldman Sachs tells us that...
Thu, Mar 2 2023, 3:26 PM
5 Minutes of Selling, Then Sideways All Day
Bonds were moderately weaker overnight with EU inflation data le...
Thu, Mar 2 2023, 3:14 PM
Mortgage rates have been hit hard on two fronts over the past month. The first front is the obvious one: the bond market has moved in a way that forc...
Thu, Mar 2 2023, 12:14 PM
Rates are surging higher yet again. It wasn't necessarily destined to be the case. In fact, rates could just as easily be moving lower. the problem...
Thu, Mar 2 2023, 9:34 AM
Hey, why wouldn’t you want to join the Mortgage Action Alliance? It doesn’t cost you a penny, and there’s strength in numbers. Signing up takes about ...
Wed, Mar 1 2023, 5:09 PM
If you want to see higher 30yr fixed mortgage rates, you'd have to go back to November 9th, 2022 after today. To be fair, that's been true on several...
Wed, Mar 1 2023, 5:04 PM
Unfriendly Breakout Driven by Data
Bond yields had been pushing up against 3.98% (10yr Treasury) for the pas...
Wed, Mar 1 2023, 10:38 AM
I have news for you, and I hope that I’m not bursting anyone’s bubble here. If a meat packer could sell the delicious looking meat that you see in the...
Wed, Mar 1 2023, 10:16 AM
"Resilience" has been the theme of the past several trading days as 10yr yields have held the ceiling at 3.98%. That ceiling is now facing its most l...
Wed, Mar 1 2023, 8:45 AM
The volume of mortgage application activity for both refinancing and purchasing fell again last week. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its ...
Tue, Feb 28 2023, 4:08 PM
At face value, today was a loss for mortgage rates. The average lender is quoting a slightly higher rate for conventional 30yr fixed scenarios compar...
Tue, Feb 28 2023, 3:59 PM
More Signs of Resilience Amid Month-End Buying Spree
It was a generally resilient day for the bond market af...
Tue, Feb 28 2023, 3:38 PM
FHFA and S&P Case Shiller each released their monthly home price indices (HPIs) for December this morning. These are the two most widely followed HPI...
Tue, Feb 28 2023, 9:54 AM
The message from today's overnight trading session is clear: European yields have broken well above their most recent ceiling after hotter inflation d...
Tue, Feb 28 2023, 8:28 AM
“Life was much easier when apple and blackberry were just fruits.” But perhaps not as interesting. Here’s what happens when you put a West Coast MI re...
Mon, Feb 27 2023, 4:31 PM
Mortgage rates began the new week on a modestly positive note. The average lender is now quoting conventional 30yr fixed loans at a slightly lower ra...
Mon, Feb 27 2023, 4:08 PM
Bonds Hold Ground Despite Onslaught of Corporate Issuance
The day began with bonds rallying back into positi...
Mon, Feb 27 2023, 11:29 AM
Many times, we can't categorize a week of bond trading without seeing how the subsequent week begins. With that in mind, last week is increasingly lo...
Mon, Feb 27 2023, 11:27 AM
Not only did pending home sales increase for the second month in a row in January, but the increase was the largest since the June 2020 rebound from t...
Mon, Feb 27 2023, 10:17 AM
Here in Las Vegas (Why did the Dalai Lama go to Las Vegas? Because he loves Tibet) the population is about 650,000 with all manners of housing, subdiv...
