Mon, Aug 12 2024, 11:43 AM
Summertime Fridays and Mondays are prone to low volumes--especially when they are virtually data-free, as is the case to begin the new week. The pere...
Fri, Aug 9 2024, 5:25 PM
Straightforward, Uneventful Session Caps The Correction
Bonds have been in correction mode for almost the en...
Fri, Aug 9 2024, 4:44 PM
After starting out at the lowest levels in more than a year on Monday morning, mortgage rates had done nothing but increase through Thursday afternoon...
Fri, Aug 9 2024, 11:35 AM
“How do you tell when you're out of invisible ink?” How do you tell when interest rates are “where they’re supposed to be?” Arguably, rates, based on ...
Fri, Aug 9 2024, 11:00 AM
Now that it's essentially over, it's easy to label this week as a quintessential consolidation and/or modest correction. In fact, even before it bega...
Thu, Aug 8 2024, 3:06 PM
Why Jobless Claims Data Moved Markets More Than Normal
Weekly jobless claims data is far from irrelevant, bu...
Thu, Aug 8 2024, 2:50 PM
It's Thursday and thus time once again for a side-by-side glimpse at our actual daily average 30yr fixed mortgage rate and the weekly survey-based rat...
Thu, Aug 8 2024, 11:51 AM
Do you believe there is no opportunity out there, or nothing you haven’t heard of? First of all, there’s an interesting “moonlighting” commercial job ...
Thu, Aug 8 2024, 10:58 AM
"Crushed" is likely too harsh a term for what we're seeing this morning, but were it not for Monday morning's paradigm stretching reversal, this morni...
Wed, Aug 7 2024, 5:33 PM
Bonds Selling Off Like it Was Always The Plan
Very little transpired during Wednesday's trading session to c...
Wed, Aug 7 2024, 5:18 PM
Yesterday saw one of the largest single day mortgage rate increases in years, although there were more than a few caveats. We discussed those in grea...
Wed, Aug 7 2024, 12:04 PM
Some things are surprising, like this video of a small child being chased by a wild pit bull. (Parental discretion may be advised.) What if you’re a l...
Wed, Aug 7 2024, 10:33 AM
Coming into this week, the most logical base case was for a moderate correction in the bond market owing to the strong rally last week and the absence...
Wed, Aug 7 2024, 3:49 AM
A drop in interest rates pushed mortgage applications sharply higher last week although nearly all the gains belonged to refinancing. The Mortgage Ban...
Tue, Aug 6 2024, 4:39 PM
MBS Outperform as Bonds Aggressively Unwind Weekend Rally
There's been no shortage of directional movement o...
Tue, Aug 6 2024, 3:40 PM
In and of itself, today was quite awful for mortgage rates with conventional 30yr fixed rates moving up faster than on almost any other day in the pas...
Tue, Aug 6 2024, 11:23 AM
Global markets are still recovering from yesterday's wild ride. In general, that has involved gains for stocks and losses in bonds. It's also probabl...
Tue, Aug 6 2024, 11:11 AM
“Borrow money from pessimists: They don't expect it back.” We are re-entering conference season, and mortgage conference attendance is all over the ma...
Mon, Aug 5 2024, 5:18 PM
As of Friday, the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate was merely at the lowest levels of 2024. A modest additional drop this morning brought th...
Mon, Aug 5 2024, 5:17 PM
Wild Ride Leaves MBS Weaker After Super Strong Start
Bonds surged to stronger levels overnight amid a global...
Mon, Aug 5 2024, 11:48 AM
This morning I head to Orange County, which has the same population as Arkansas or Nevada, for the CAMP conference where the economy will be discussed...
Mon, Aug 5 2024, 11:33 AM
In the overnight session, the rest of the world decided it was just as concerned about the Fed potentially having waited too long to cut rates as some...
Fri, Aug 2 2024, 5:45 PM
The events of this past week serve as an exclamation point in one of the many sentences that tells the story of the big shift away from the generation...
Fri, Aug 2 2024, 4:03 PM
Bonds Rapidly Repricing Reality After Jobs Report
Yes, today was "just one" jobs report. And yes, there are...
Fri, Aug 2 2024, 12:02 PM
Remember when Intel was “the cat’s meow” in the IT and chip world? Intel is laying off 15,000 to save $10 billion in costs. Big numbers… Sometimes you...
Fri, Aug 2 2024, 11:16 AM
This is one of those weeks that stands a good chance of being looked back up as the moment where the clouds of indecision parted and true trends were ...
Thu, Aug 1 2024, 5:02 PM
Rates Taking an Assumptive Lead-Off Ahead of Jobs Report?
Suddenly, something has changed in the bond market...
Thu, Aug 1 2024, 4:45 PM
It's official! At this point, you'd need to go all the way back to the end of December 2023 to see a lower average rate for a top tier, conventional ...
Thu, Aug 1 2024, 11:46 AM
Thank you to Ira S. who points out that today marks the Spirit Halloween Stores opening. The origins of Halloween go back thousands of years via dozen...
Thu, Aug 1 2024, 10:13 AM
Bonds were exceptionally sideways in the overnight session with 10yr yields holding between 4.05 and 4.06 for almost the entirety. It wasn't until the...
Wed, Jul 31 2024, 5:28 PM
Surprisingly Strong Reaction to Equivocal Powell
Opinions certainly vary as to whether today's communication...
Wed, Jul 31 2024, 5:11 PM
The Fed didn't cut rates today and rates then moved quickly lower. Naturally, there's more to the story than that, but the paradox is a good reminder...
Wed, Jul 31 2024, 2:01 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, moderated, and the unempl...
Wed, Jul 31 2024, 11:50 AM
Signed contracts for home sales increased in June, a broad-based improvement seen in all four major regions of the country. The National Association o...
Wed, Jul 31 2024, 11:46 AM
“Hard work pays off in the future; laziness pays off now.” Joking aside, competitors out there sure aren’t being lazy. Who wants your previous clients...
Wed, Jul 31 2024, 8:52 AM
Interest rates were largely unchanged during the week ended July 26. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) says its Market Composite Index, a measu...
Wed, Jul 31 2024, 8:50 AM
While there is still one market moving economic report left this morning, the first two have been bond friendly with both ADP and the Employment Cost ...
Tue, Jul 30 2024, 4:06 PM
Data and Headlines Drive Modest Volatility Ahead of The Fed
There were two different bouts of modest volatil...
Tue, Jul 30 2024, 3:42 PM
Mortgage rates began the day with the average lender quoting just slightly higher rates compared to yesterday's latest levels. By the end of the day,...
Tue, Jul 30 2024, 12:54 PM
Is it a surprise to anyone that millions of renters could afford to buy a home with their mortgage payment not exceeding 30 percent of their income? D...
Tue, Jul 30 2024, 12:28 PM
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) became an occasionally major market mover over the past few years as traders looked for any availab...
Mon, Jul 29 2024, 4:14 PM
No Bad News in Today's Treasury Announcement
There have been a few occasions in the past few years where Tre...
Mon, Jul 29 2024, 4:00 PM
Although the range has been very narrow for the past few weeks, average mortgage rates nonetheless fell to the lowest levels in more than 6 months. T...
Mon, Jul 29 2024, 12:03 PM
Language has oddities. For example, plurale tantums: items that are usually referred to in plural, often preceded by “pair of” even when there is only...
Mon, Jul 29 2024, 11:41 AM
Bonds were moderately stronger overnight with some of the improvement seen right at the start of the session and a majority following the start of Eur...
Fri, Jul 26 2024, 6:04 PM
Straightforward Gains After Important Inflation Data
While today's monthly core PCE headline may have techni...
Fri, Jul 26 2024, 5:37 PM
This week's most important economic data was the PCE price index which is the gold standard of big picture inflation measurement. For those hoping to ...
Fri, Jul 26 2024, 12:00 PM
The only thing constant is change. After 53 years, Southwest Airlines is ending its 100 percent open seating policy! (I don’t mind lining up.) People ...
Fri, Jul 26 2024, 11:58 AM
After yesterday's quarter over quarter core PCE price index came in 0.2% higher than expected, we knew today's monthly PCE data would have to include ...
Thu, Jul 25 2024, 3:29 PM
Lots of Competing Motivations Causing Volatility In a Narrow Range
Today marked an uptick in the importance ...
