Wed, Jun 12 2024, 4:22 PM
Massive CPI Rally Cut in Half After Fed Announcement
As discussed in the AM commentary, bonds rallied sharpl...
Wed, Jun 12 2024, 4:10 PM
It was an incredibly high consequence day for the bond market and, thus, mortgage rates due to the confluence of two extremely important events. The ...
Wed, Jun 12 2024, 2:01 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate ha...
Wed, Jun 12 2024, 11:35 AM
Florida became a state in 1845. Sixteen years later, kites were used in the American Civil War to deliver letters, news, and newspapers. Now we have… ...
Wed, Jun 12 2024, 10:32 AM
There are so many line items in the CPI data that it would be hard to imagine a truly perfect report. In today's case, one could still take exception...
Wed, Jun 12 2024, 8:14 AM
Mortgage application activity recovered nicely last week from a downturn during the previous holiday-shortened week, helped by a temporary drop in in...
Tue, Jun 11 2024, 3:53 PM
Treasury Auction Helps Bonds Hold The Range
If yesterday was a placeholder ahead of bigger ticket events, an...
Tue, Jun 11 2024, 3:30 PM
Today's mortgage rates were fairly close to yesterday's at the average lender for the 3rd business day in a row. Friday was the last day with any sub...
Tue, Jun 11 2024, 11:51 AM
I head to Sarasota, Florida this morning, not to look for Florida Man, but for the MBA Florida Conference. A big topic will be homeowner’s insurance. ...
Tue, Jun 11 2024, 10:20 AM
Not every day is destined to be significant (or even interesting) for the bond market. Depending on the outcome of today's only relevant calendar eve...
Mon, Jun 10 2024, 3:24 PM
Straightforward Session as Traders Wait For More
Monday ended up being rather uneventful for the bond despit...
Mon, Jun 10 2024, 3:02 PM
There's been a noticeable uptick in mortgage rate volatility over the past two weeks with a quick spike at the end of May, a nice drop in early June a...
Mon, Jun 10 2024, 11:55 AM
“It's half the price of living at home!” Meet the people swapping dry land for a perpetual cruise. Meanwhile, back in the real world, residential loan...
Mon, Jun 10 2024, 10:55 AM
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has done more than any other report to shape trends in the bond market in the past year. At times (such as the middle ...
Fri, Jun 7 2024, 4:06 PM
What Jobs Report? Bring on CPI and the Fed
Bonds made it almost all week putting on a superhuman display of...
Fri, Jun 7 2024, 3:32 PM
There's a strong case to be made for the fact that interest rates had a sunny predisposition this week. In practical terms, that simply meant giving ...
Fri, Jun 7 2024, 12:23 PM
Whether it was a magical combination of Treasury auction timing and new month trading or a legitimate shift in response to Monday's ISM Manufacturing ...
Fri, Jun 7 2024, 11:44 AM
Huh? Michigan passed California in legal weed sales? The folks here in San Diego don’t seem to mind, and many on the street are doing their part to ke...
Thu, Jun 6 2024, 4:12 PM
Bonds Continue Taking Their Seats Ahead of The Big Show
Although bonds continued to improve yesterday, the p...
Thu, Jun 6 2024, 4:00 PM
The outcome of certain economic reports will determine whether the next big move in interest rates is higher or lower. Two reports are more important...
Thu, Jun 6 2024, 11:41 AM
“My granddad was responsible for 25 downed German planes in WW II. To this day, he is still known as the worst mechanic the Luftwaffe ever had.” On th...
Thu, Jun 6 2024, 10:00 AM
We've been anticipating this week of data for the past 3 weeks and it has been delivering on the promise of increased motivation for the bond market. ...
Wed, Jun 5 2024, 4:08 PM
Counterintuitive Reaction to Data, But We're Not Upset
The bond market did not stick to its usual script tod...
Wed, Jun 5 2024, 3:46 PM
The phrase "data dependent" is ingrained in the current bond market psychology for good reason. Weaker trends in economic data will reliably cause th...
Wed, Jun 5 2024, 10:52 AM
ISM produces two PMIs. Both of them have a strong track record of inspiring market movement with today's service sector version being the bigger deal...
Wed, Jun 5 2024, 8:28 AM
I head to San Diego today, home to an estimated 300-500,000 roaming feral cats! Cat fans are quick to point out that the word "homeowner" has the word...
Wed, Jun 5 2024, 7:00 AM
Interest rates, along with the distraction of a three-day weekend, further slowed the mortgage market last week. Tho Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA...
Tue, Jun 4 2024, 4:18 PM
For most lenders, you'd still see modestly lower rates on several days in mid May, but apart from that, you'd need to go all the way back to early Apr...
Tue, Jun 4 2024, 4:16 PM
More Gains After JOLTS, But They Might Have Happened Anyway
The winning streak continues for the bond market...
Tue, Jun 4 2024, 9:56 AM
Once again, the bond market is starting the domestic session with 10yr yields several bps lower day-over-day. We can credit European bonds for that o...
Tue, Jun 4 2024, 8:18 AM
"Hey Rob, thank you for continuing to highlight the insurance issues we're having, like in yesterday's commentary. Insurance companies are monitoring ...
Mon, Jun 3 2024, 3:23 PM
Mortgage rates had a rough go of it in the 4 days following Memorial Day weekend (i.e. last week). To be fair, the tough part was limited to the first...
Mon, Jun 3 2024, 3:22 PM
Solid Gains Despite MBS Underperformance
US Treasuries had a tough time digesting auction supply last week, ...
Mon, Jun 3 2024, 11:26 AM
Time flies. It was four years ago many of us were watching the mess called “Tiger King. Summer is upon us again. “People are complaining about this be...
Mon, Jun 3 2024, 10:23 AM
As far as economic data goes, there's CPI, NFP, and then there's everything else. In the "everything else" category, a small group of 3-6 report vie ...
Fri, May 31 2024, 4:23 PM
Data Driven Rally, But Next Week's Data is More Important
By the end of this holiday-shortened week, bonds d...
Fri, May 31 2024, 4:08 PM
This week got off to a late start as markets were closed on Monday for Memorial Day. Upon returning to the office, traders began pushing rates higher ...
Fri, May 31 2024, 11:42 AM
How is it that there are only three weeks until the summer solstice? Three more weeks of the amount of daylight increasing in the Northern Hemisphere,...
Fri, May 31 2024, 11:13 AM
This week's most hotly anticipated report--monthly core PCE inflation--came in 0.2% versus a median forecast of 0.3% this morning. That's welcome new...
Thu, May 30 2024, 4:21 PM
Stale PCE Helped; Fresher Version Up Next
The quarterly vs monthly PCE reports are potential sources of conf...
Thu, May 30 2024, 3:44 PM
If we overlook the nearly unchanged performance from last Friday, mortgage rates were on a 5 day losing streak as of yesterday afternoon with the 30yr...
Thu, May 30 2024, 12:30 PM
Pending home sales fell another 7.7 percent in April according to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) ...
Thu, May 30 2024, 11:57 AM
Wednesday proved to be frustrating for bond market watchers and fans of low rates. Yields rose to the highest levels in several weeks without any sat...
Thu, May 30 2024, 11:53 AM
Hey, there is plenty of competition among lenders and among vendors. But, to the best of my knowledge, vendors and lenders aren’t doing this to one an...
Wed, May 29 2024, 4:02 PM
Concocting a Narrative to Fit The Market Movement
There are certain days and even weeks where the bond marke...
Wed, May 29 2024, 3:33 PM
Mortgage rates most recently bottomed out on May 15th with the average top tier conventional 30yr fixed scenario being quoted just a hair under 7.0%. ...
Wed, May 29 2024, 11:49 AM
“I just saw three people jogging outside, and it inspired me to… get up and close the blinds.” Are you inspired to fly somewhere on vacation this summ...
Wed, May 29 2024, 11:36 AM
While US bonds were busy holding inside a narrow sideways range through the end of last week, pressure was building in the European bond market. When...
Wed, May 29 2024, 8:07 AM
Higher interest rates helped to wipe out three weeks of gains in mortgage application activity. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market...
Tue, May 28 2024, 3:49 PM
Relatively Sharp Losses, but Nothing Special in The Bigger Picture
Bonds began the day modestly stronger, an...
