“Warning: don’t use your pet’s name for your password. We were hacked, and had to change our dog’s name.” “Experts” are saying that passwords will be on the way out in 2026 as passkeys take over. Good, as I am tired of carrying around a notebook with my usernames and passwords for dozens of sites. For fans of artificial intelligence (AI), we have news that a) AI generated weather predictions are making up new towns, and b) Utah is allowing AI to prescribe medicine to humans. (Taking that to an extreme, is sure sounds like the plot of a sci fi movie where us humans are unwitting slaves to computers through drugs in our food.) OpenAI has launched ChatGPT Health which wants access to your medical records. What could possibly go wrong? On the mortgage side of things, Newrez has made an investment in HomeVision to create an AI-driven mortgage underwriting platform, enabling an industry-first solution designed to deliver real-time mortgage decisions across loan types. Meanwhile, Volkswagen is bringing back physical buttons to its dashboards. Yay! (Today’s podcast can be found here. Today’s has an interview with the Texas Stock Exchange’s Jeff Karcher on the origins of the TXSE, why its founders believe U.S. markets need more competition, and how its 2026 launch aims to reshape capital markets through technology-driven trading and long-term vision.)

Lender and Broker Products, Software, and Services

Primis Mortgage is excited to announce the launch of its latest innovation in home financing: the Access Total Mortgage (ATM) loan, a principal-first lending solution designed to give mortgage professionals a more flexible option for today’s borrowers. The ATM loan combines a mortgage, checking account, and a HELOC into one integrated account, allowing deposits to immediately reduce principal while maintaining access to funds, without refinancing. Structured as a non-traditional, 30-year HELOC with an integrated sweep-checking account, the ATM loan supports ongoing liquidity and efficient cash-flow management. Funds can be accessed through standard banking channels, providing flexibility for evolving borrower needs. This solution is available to qualified borrowers with a minimum initial draw of $150,000 and reflects Primis Mortgage’s continued focus on innovative, relationship-driven lending solutions. Learn more about the ATM loan and how it fits into Primis Mortgage’s forward-looking lending platform.

Mortgage Market Intelligence, Powered by RETR! A new weekly market brief is launching for mortgage professionals who want a clearer view of what’s actually happening across the industry. Over the past few years, the mortgage market has undergone a historic contraction, with nearly 70,000 loan officers exiting between 2022 and 2024. As licensing renewals continue to settle, understanding where talent is moving, and why has become increasingly important. Mortgage Market Intelligence delivers a concise, data-driven snapshot of loan officer movement, company gains and losses by producer volume, licensing trends, and notable originator changes across the market. The goal is simple: replace speculation with facts and provide readers with timely insight into competitive shifts shaping today’s mortgage landscape. Published weekly and powered by RETR, this brief is designed for loan officers, executives, and recruiting leaders who rely on accurate market intelligence to make informed decisions. Subscribe here.

“Meet Planet at IMN: A Better Approach to RTL & DSCR Servicing. RTL and DSCR loans demand more than traditional servicing models can deliver. Borrowers expect responsiveness; investors expect performance, and complexity is the norm, not the exception. Planet is a multifaceted financial services firm with deep experience servicing RTL and DSCR portfolios. Our call center and servicing platform are purpose-built for RTL and DSCR loans, combining high-touch borrower experiences with dedicated asset manager support. Investors and originators partner with Planet as an extension of their teams, delivering added scale and operational support that drive stronger portfolio performance. Meet with us at the IMN RTL & DSCR Conference next week to discuss how Planet supports investors as strategies and markets evolve. Contact Caitlin Moynihan at (917) 399-5135 or visit here to learn more.”

The commercial lending market is exploding, with $2.7 trillion in maturing loans over the next five years and far too few brokers to handle the demand. For residential mortgage brokers, this is a rare moment to add a powerful new revenue stream without disrupting your current business. Oceanview Commercial Lending, led by 25‑year industry veteran Chris Perez, offers a turnkey broker partnership designed for busy residential pros. Certified brokers gain marketing support, AI‑powered tools, expert training, and access to a 6,000‑lender marketplace, plus a steady flow of ballooning refinance leads that must close. Brokers like Claudia in Illinois are earning $20,000–$30,000 per month with just a few hours a week. Now, Chris is selecting 10 brokers per state for this exclusive 2026 expansion. And breaking news: three billion‑dollar companies are joining the Ikenekt AI ecosystem, with Oceanview positioned to receive all commercial deal flow. Ready to tap into this wave? Book your strategy session.

In ICE’s latest ICE PPE blog, mortgage lenders are asked to consider whether their Product and Pricing Engine (PPE) is truly working for them. As the industry faces increasing pressure to scale efficiently while managing risk, a PPE should be more than just a tool for running scenarios and locking rates. The blog explores four key areas: delivering advanced automation without complexity, enabling self-service configuration, serving as an active risk management partner, and continuously evolving to meet your needs. Click here to read more.

The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.

“Banning” Institutional Owners from the SFH Market

“Rob, in the current purchase market, I suspect the DSCR buyers are exceeding the institutional appetite, but does anyone find it ironic that the main capitalist in the nation announced a very un-capitalist move to limit corporations from buying property?” “Rob, will the government force insurance companies to lower premiums, counties to lower property taxes, and homeowner associations to lower dues?” Those were two emails that I received yesterday after Donald Trump said the U.S. should bar large institutional investors from buying single-family homes, arguing that corporate ownership has helped push housing further out of reach for everyday Americans.

Apparently we will hear the details in two weeks during a speech, but what was sent out included, “For a very long time, buying and owning a home was considered the pinnacle of the American Dream… that American Dream is increasingly out of reach for far too many people, especially younger Americans,” Trump said in a Truth Social post Wednesday. “It is for that reason, and much more, that I am immediately taking steps to ban large institutional investors from buying more single-family homes, and I will be calling on Congress to codify it. People live in homes, not corporations,” he added.

During and since the Financial Crisis in 2008-2010 we’ve seen private equity giants, real estate investment trusts and other large institutional investors amass sizable portfolios of single-family rental homes. Many have argued that these investments have reduced housing supply for would-be homeowners and helped drive up prices. Think Invitation Homes, Blackstone, and Apollo Global Management. (Invitation Homes is the largest renter of single-family homes in the country while Blackstone is the largest private-equity owner of apartments in the U.S. with more than 230,000 units, according to data from the Private Equity Stakeholder Project. In recent years Blackstone has spent billions acquiring real estate companies such as Tricon Residential, American Campus Communities and AIR Communities.)

Marketwatch was quick to publish a story about how experts believe that this won’t lower home prices in most of the nation.

The Wall Street Journal noted, “It isn’t clear if Trump can carry out such a ban without congressional approval, and big investors would still be able to hold on to their hundreds of thousands of existing homes. Yet if the president is able to enact a ban, it would likely ripple through a number of major housing markets across the country.

“Wall Street’s presence in the housing market began growing after the subprime mortgage crisis started to erupt in 2007, even though institutional investors have never owned more than a tiny slice of the overall housing market. Some estimates put the figure around 2-3 percent. But in several cities, investors hold a significant share of homes. During the pandemic housing boom, investors accounted for more than 20 percent of all home sales in some hot markets, including Houston, Miami, Phoenix, and Las Vegas. Sunbelt cities have been a particular target for institutional homeownership. A 2024 analysis by the Government Accountability Office said large institutions owned 25 percent of rental homes in Atlanta and 18 percent in Charlotte. (Not of all homes.)

“Single-family rental companies that buy up homes say they offer their residents an opportunity to live in upscale neighborhoods with good school districts that they wouldn’t be able to afford to own. But growing voter anger over high homeownership costs has led government officials from both parties to try to crack down on institutional investors in their local markets. Nebraska, California, New York, Minnesota, and North Carolina are among the states where lawmakers have proposed laws to restrict large investor home purchases, though most haven’t gone anywhere.

“Investor purchases have also made it harder for some first-time buyers to compete with Wall Street-backed investment firms, with their all-cash offers. Institutions don’t always offer more money, but they are able to close a deal quickly and rarely quibble over worn flooring or dated bathrooms. Wall Street firms and other institutional investors have scooped up hundreds of thousands of U.S. houses to rent, leading some housing analysts to assert that these purchases are contributing to a dearth of homes for sale and driving up home prices in certain neighborhoods.

“’People want a place to live, but if investors flood the market on the disposition side, there’s not going to be enough buyers and that will have a really big impact on home prices,’ said Jason Lewris, a co-founder of Parcl Labs, which tracks the institutional investor market.

“The U.S. faces a housing shortage of several million units, depending on how that figure is calculated. Home building slowed considerably after the 2008-09 financial crisis caused home prices to plummet. That left many builders stuck with an excess of inventory. Wall Street firms, private-equity managers and other institutional investors bought tens of thousands of single-family homes, often in bulk at foreclosure auctions.

“Trump would be hard-pressed to implement a legal ban without getting congressional approval. ​​A bipartisan Senate bill last year that aimed to increase housing supply by streamlining certain federal programs and improving access to affordable mortgages passed the Senate unanimously. But it was blocked by House Republicans.

Democrats said they support limiting institutional investors from buying up homes, but objected to how Trump was going about it, and noted that Republicans have blocked similar attempts in the past. ‘Trump should start with getting his own party in the House to support a bipartisan bill to bring down housing costs that passed the Senate unanimously,’ U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) said in a statement Wednesday. ‘And Congress should work on legislation to stop corporate investors from buying up homes.’

“An investor ban would also likely require exemptions for new-home construction, analysts at investment bank Keefe, Bruyette & Woods said in a note. Corporations that invest in single-family homes would have several ways to argue that a ban is a violation of their constitutional rights, according to the American Bar Association.

“’The pushback won’t just be from our industry,” said Sean Dobson, chief executive of Amherst, a single-family rental firm that owns about 47,000 homes. “This is anti-free-market, anti-property-rights kind of policy.’

“Some single-family rental firms are… pivoting their business models to “build-to-rent” communities of newly constructed single-family homes, rather than acquiring existing ones.

In the first year of his second term, Trump made few material announcements to directly address the nation’s housing crisis. But the president said Wednesday he planned to unveil more housing and affordability plans in coming weeks.

“The administration last year announced a task force that would identify federal land for housing development but has made little progress on that since.”

Prepayments Impact Mortgage Investor Interest

December prepayment speeds rose a modest 5 percent from November, but were 49 percent higher than a year earlier, signaling a gradual recovery in refinancing despite an earlier-than-expected seasonal slowdown. Fannie Mae 30-year aggregate speeds increased to 8.8 1-month CPR, while shorter-duration mortgages also accelerated, even as mortgage rates remained largely unchanged and refinance application volume continued to decline.

Speed gains were concentrated in out-of-the-money UMBS coupons, while in-the-money coupons were flat to slightly slower, and large Fannie 6.5 percent cohorts continued to exhibit elevated CPRs despite month-over-month declines. Ginnie Mae II 30-year speeds rose slightly overall, with in-the-money coupons slowing and higher coupons accelerating. By month-end, refinance incentive remained limited but stable, with roughly 13 percent of all 30-year borrowers in the money, and localized speed increases in states like Florida and New York suggest targeted refinance activity even as overall speeds are expected to hold steady next month due to fewer days and unfavorable seasonals.

Capital Markets

Is uncertainty still keeping borrowers on the sidelines? MCT’s newly released January Lock Volume Indices show a total lock volume decline of nearly 19% month over month. The sharper-than-expected decline reflects winter seasonality combined with lingering uncertainty following the government shutdown and a rate environment that has yet to meaningfully improve. Despite the pullback, year-over-year activity remained higher across all categories. As Andrew Rhodes, Senior Director and Head of Trading at MCT, noted, “When you combine typical winter seasonality with the spillover effects of the longest government shutdown in history, it makes sense that people became more conservative about making big financial decisions.” With rates appearing range-bound and refinance demand constrained by the lock-in effect, understanding where activity is holding up can help lenders plan for the months ahead. Download the full Lock Volume Indices report or subscribe to MCT’s newsletter for ongoing market data and expert guidance.

Mortgage-backed securities had a choppy day yesterday as Treasury yields fell overall, especially at longer maturities, but MBS prices did not keep up and spreads widened, particularly for lower-coupon loans. Economic data was mixed, with ADP roughly in line (41k versus 50k expectations), services activity slightly stronger than expected, and job openings printing at their lowest in over a year. Despite strong buying from retail investors, MBS spreads stayed under pressure, and trading showed little improvement even as volumes picked up ahead of the release of prepayment data. By the close, Treasury yields were modestly lower, mortgage rates edged down slightly, equities finished mostly lower, and MBS ended the day cheaper relative to Treasuries.

Labor market readings will likely dominate near-term rate moves, leaving the Fed comfortable pausing rate cuts for now (no change is expected to the fed funds rate at the FOMC meeting later this month). With 10-year yields back near the middle of their recent range and technicals offering little directional guidance, the Treasury market looks poised for a decisive break driven more by fundamentals and geopolitics than by flows or chart signals. Keep in mind that the U.S. unemployment rate (around 4.6 percent as of November) remains historically low compared with the post-2000 average of 5.6 percent, even as it has risen modestly over the past year, prompting the Federal Reserve to cut rates aggressively and likely do more despite limited long-run influence on employment.

Beneath the national figures, unemployment increases are uneven across states, with places like Maryland, Oregon, New Jersey, Delaware, and South Carolina seeing the largest recent rises; notably, these same states also exhibit above-average severe mortgage delinquencies in Ginnie Mae pools, making localized labor market trends particularly relevant for Agency MBS investors assessing credit and buyout risk.

Today’s economic calendar kicked off with Challenger job cuts for December. “U.S.-based employers announced 35,553 job cuts in December, down 50 percent from the 71k job cuts announced in November. It is down 8 percent from the 39k job cuts announced in the same month last year. December’s total is the lowest monthly total since 26k cuts were announced in July 2024. It is the lowest December total since 2023, when 35k cuts were announced. It is the fourth time in 2025 job cuts were lower than the corresponding month one year earlier.”

We’ve also received the October trade deficit (well below consensus at $29.4 billion), weekly jobless claims (208k, about as expected), and Q3 productivity and unit labor costs (productivity +4.9 percent). Later today brings wholesale inventories and sales for October, the NY Fed’s Survey on Consumer Expectations for December, November consumer credit, Treasury announcing the details of next week’s mini-refunding before conducting a buyback (for liquidity purposes) in 10-year to 20-year coupons for up to $2 billion, and Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey. After the initial numbers Agency MBS prices are unchanged from Wednesday’s close, the 2-year is yielding 3.47, and the 10-year is yielding 4.16 after closing yesterday at 4.14 percent.