Today, 5:15 PM
Retreat Into Recent Rate Range Continues
The opening commentary is surprisingly similar to the closing comme...
Today, 11:29 AM
We came into Friday expecting the Producer Price Index data to carry more market movement potential than normal. Two reasons for this: A) inflation d...
Today, 10:09 AM
Stage presence during the holidays? Here’s an example . Christmas, and 2023, is roaring our way… What are you telling your bosses? If you’re working ...
Thu, Dec 8 2022, 4:08 PM
Mortgage rates have been remarkably well behaved since the November 10th release of the last Consumer Price Index (CPI), the monthly inflation report ...
Thu, Dec 8 2022, 3:59 PM
Uneventful Trading Day Despite Moderate Weakness
Today had the feel of a holiday trading day in the bond mar...
Thu, Dec 8 2022, 12:14 PM
As we watched yesterday's rally continue to extend into the afternoon without any compelling motivation, it began to seem slightly overdone--especiall...
Thu, Dec 8 2022, 9:36 AM
Yesterday I spent some time in Northern California with two groups, one of which was CAMP, and while morale is good and everyone is in the holiday spi...
Wed, Dec 7 2022, 4:49 PM
Mortgage rates moved moderately lower today after new economic data showed a big drop in the cost of labor in Q3. Labor costs are one of the places t...
Wed, Dec 7 2022, 4:22 PM
Mini Snowball Rally on Data, Technicals, and Lack of Supply
There are several ways to approach today's rally...
Wed, Dec 7 2022, 1:37 PM
Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) showed some signs of life in November, posting its first increase in nine months. The index, which d...
Wed, Dec 7 2022, 9:50 AM
We never like to view technical levels or technical analysis as having any reliable predictive value about the future. It's more of a framework that ...
Wed, Dec 7 2022, 9:05 AM
Let’s have a non-mortgage opening paragraph. Today is “Remember Pearl Harbor Day.” (If you like history, you gotta click on that link and see what is ...
Wed, Dec 7 2022, 8:19 AM
Application volume the past week didn’t fully recover from the usual Thanksgiving week losses a week prior. Refinancing did improve, but purchase vol...
Tue, Dec 6 2022, 4:57 PM
This week continues to be a placeholder ahead of more consequential events coming up in the week ahead. Specifically, next Tuesday and Wednesday's co...
Tue, Dec 6 2022, 4:39 PM
Mystery Rally Gets Bonds Back in The Green
Both Tuesday and Wednesday are effectively free from market-movin...
Tue, Dec 6 2022, 12:23 PM
Today's trading session is effectively data-free in the US with the never-market-moving International Trade report the only data on the calendar. Bon...
Mon, Dec 5 2022, 4:08 PM
Mortgage rates ended last week very close to their lowest levels in more than 2 months after Fed Chair Powell essentially confirmed next week's rate h...
Mon, Dec 5 2022, 3:46 PM
Black Knight released its Mortgage Monitor report today--always a treasure trove of robust housing/mortgage-related data. Of particular interest this...
Mon, Dec 5 2022, 3:22 PM
Weaker Start on Data and Fed Anxiety
Bonds got off to a weaker start in the new week on a variety of factors...
Mon, Dec 5 2022, 11:21 AM
The importance of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) cannot be overstated for most of 2022. That's doubly true in November and December. The Nov 10th it...
Mon, Dec 5 2022, 9:21 AM
“Hey Chet, since you’re the new guy here with the park U.S. Geological Survey in Hawai’i, you’re going to be the one placing the live cam on the volca...
Fri, Dec 2 2022, 4:12 PM
Bonds Ultimately Shrug Off Stronger Jobs Data
Today saw a fairly impressive round trip for rates following t...
Fri, Dec 2 2022, 3:48 PM
As far as financial markets are concerned, a green Christmas is better than anything Bing Crosby could have crooned about. Green is the color that fla...
Fri, Dec 2 2022, 12:30 PM
Change has been in the air since the November 10th CPI data. That single report did more than any other event to raise hopes for a big picture shift ...
Fri, Dec 2 2022, 10:13 AM
Robert K. writes, “My Mom always said, ‘Work until your bank account looks like a phone number. Well, I did it! ‘Available balance: $911.’” Speaking o...
Thu, Dec 1 2022, 4:05 PM
Mortgage rates had been in a holding pattern for nearly 3 weeks following the November 10th CPI inflation data. On that single day, the average 30yr ...
Thu, Dec 1 2022, 3:15 PM
Bonds Look Like They're Expecting Good News
We came into the day with a disclaimer about modest losses still...
Thu, Dec 1 2022, 10:24 AM
Our industry continues to be battered. Starwood Capital-backed Reverse Mortgage Funding and its parent company Reverse Mortgage Investment Trust have ...
Wed, Nov 30 2022, 4:40 PM
Mortgage rates moved slightly lower today, but barring a major market reversal overnight, could be even lower tomorrow. It's fairly rare to be able t...
Wed, Nov 30 2022, 4:25 PM
Powell Shows Up With Holiday Cheer For Bonds
While it's not technically a holiday week, we are in the midst ...
Wed, Nov 30 2022, 1:13 PM
The combination of this morning's ADP employment data and the preliminary GDP revision pushed yields slightly higher after a flat overnight session. ...
Wed, Nov 30 2022, 10:19 AM
October saw contracts to purchase existing homes fall for the fifth straight month. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said its Pending Home...
Wed, Nov 30 2022, 10:13 AM
In the secondary markets, lenders are trying to wring out every penny from loan sales. For example, in today’s podcast (available here) is an intervie...
Wed, Nov 30 2022, 8:28 AM
Thanksgiving had its usual effect on the mortgage market during the week ended November 25, although the third week of easing interest rates helped mo...
Tue, Nov 29 2022, 4:47 PM
It's been hard to find an interesting new angle on mortgage rates over the past 2+ weeks. They've been remarkably flat during that time after falling...
Tue, Nov 29 2022, 4:33 PM
Issuance Sets The Tone and Keeps Bonds Range-Bound
Bonds have now spent more than 2 weeks locked inside a ve...
Tue, Nov 29 2022, 11:30 AM
If you're just here for the conforming loan limit news, $726,200 is the number for 2023. Does this mean no one can get a mortgage for more than $72...
Tue, Nov 29 2022, 9:49 AM
Corporate debt issuance is a net negative for bonds. There was a lull in issuance heading into Thanksgiving. With traders snapping out of holiday mo...
Tue, Nov 29 2022, 9:44 AM
Lenders and vendors alike are emerging from Thanksgiving and looking ahead to which day they have off for Christmas in the U.S., the 23rd or the 26th....
Mon, Nov 28 2022, 4:31 PM
Excitement, volatility, non-stop action... concepts that have absolutely nothing to do with mortgage rate movement over the course of the past two wee...
Mon, Nov 28 2022, 12:20 PM
Bonds were effectively closed for a 4-day weekend starting with Thanksgiving last Thursday. True, Friday was technically open for half a day, but vol...
Mon, Nov 28 2022, 9:29 AM
Why does opening every ironing board sound like you’re dipping a witch in scalding oil? Cutting costs can sound like that as well, and while we await ...
Fri, Nov 25 2022, 11:57 AM
Putting out this daily commentary is like being in the army: I usually do more by 6AM than many people do during much of the day. The commentary is a ...
Fri, Nov 25 2022, 9:11 AM
MBS live will be operating in "holiday light" mode today. The weekly newsletter is on holiday but will be back next week. Commentary and alerts will...
Wed, Nov 23 2022, 3:42 PM
Bond markets will be closed for Thanksgiving tomorrow. That means mortgage lenders won't be publishing new rates. While markets are technically open...
Wed, Nov 23 2022, 3:26 PM
Rates Recover Nicely After Fed Minutes
Today was the only day of the holiday-shortened week with any meaning...
Wed, Nov 23 2022, 11:04 AM
We'd be the first to advocate taking Thanksgiving week trading momentum with a grain of salt, so this morning's discussion is less about drawing conne...
Wed, Nov 23 2022, 9:30 AM
Let me save you a web search tomorrow: 1-800-butterball. A web search turned up a misconception: It appears that robber Willie Horton, when he was ask...
Wed, Nov 23 2022, 8:21 AM
Mortgage application volume increased for the second consecutive week as interest rates continued to decline. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) s...
Tue, Nov 22 2022, 3:35 PM
Rates are driven by bonds and mortgage rates are driven by mortgage-backed bonds. These bonds trade in the open market all day every day. Mortgage l...
