Today, 4:48 PM
Bonds Brace For Stormier Weather After This Week's Smooth Sailing
Despite a few inconsequential ups and down...
Today, 4:16 PM
It's no great secret that the outgoing week didn't offer much in terms of hotly anticipated events with the power to make or break momentum in the rat...
Today, 12:04 PM
Bonds were initially stronger, then weaker in the overnight session. There was a bit of additional selling in the first hour, but none of it correspo...
Today, 11:50 AM
If you want to see an unscripted moment where politics and the central bank collide, thank Ken Sonner for sending over this clip of President Trump an...
Thu, Jul 24 2025, 5:19 PM
Reasonably Resilient After Data-Driven Selling
This morning's Jobless Claims report was the week's most rele...
Thu, Jul 24 2025, 3:54 PM
The latest New Home Sales report (released today) shows a slight uptick in June after last month’s sharp drop. The seasonally‑adjusted annual sales pa...
Thu, Jul 24 2025, 3:41 PM
After falling for 5 straight days leading into Tuesday, mortgage rates have now moved slightly higher on each of the past two days. As was the case wi...
Thu, Jul 24 2025, 11:41 AM
July 24… While much of the nation swelters, if you live in Utah, it’s Pie and Beer Day. Uh, I mean, Pioneer Day. The average home in Utah now costs $5...
Thu, Jul 24 2025, 8:47 AM
Jobless claims data continues to defy a majority of other labor market metrics in showing a remarkable lack of any signs of softening. In fact, the 4...
Wed, Jul 23 2025, 4:55 PM
Broadly Calm Despite Modest Pull-Back
If anything about the present week required investigation and explanat...
Wed, Jul 23 2025, 3:22 PM
It's been a pretty good run for mortgage rates since hitting their most recent highs last Tuesday. Each subsequent day saw a modest improvement. That ...
Wed, Jul 23 2025, 11:40 AM
Two months ago, existing home sales hit a five-month low. Last month’s report showed a minor rebound. This month’s update, released July 23, shows a r...
Wed, Jul 23 2025, 10:43 AM
The analytical theme this week has been to observe the market movement and then go scrambling for justification. Such is the nature of a week without...
Wed, Jul 23 2025, 9:01 AM
Mortgage application activity managed a modest increase last week despite slightly higher rates. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) weekly surve...
Wed, Jul 23 2025, 8:28 AM
The residential lending industry touches all facets of life, and the best LOs are not focused strictly about mortgages. I start off this Commentary wi...
Tue, Jul 22 2025, 4:16 PM
Solid AM Gains Stick Around All Day
Bonds improved in the morning following comments from Bessent that gave ...
Tue, Jul 22 2025, 3:25 PM
Last week, we got a sneak preview of how the market would react to Fed Chair Powell ending his term early. In a nutshell, only the shortest-term rates...
Tue, Jul 22 2025, 11:53 AM
You may not believe in climate change, but your insurance company and mortgage servicer certainly do. It is a fact that warmer air can hold more moist...
Tue, Jul 22 2025, 11:23 AM
While stock market volatility may be a drop in the bucket in the bigger picture, earnings season tends to increase volume and liquidity. This can spi...
Mon, Jul 21 2025, 4:26 PM
Uneventful Resilience
Monday's theme for the bond market was one of moderate resilience--at least for the lo...
Mon, Jul 21 2025, 3:57 PM
Mortgage rates didn't move much on Monday, but they moved in the right direction with the average lender 0.03% lower for a top tier 30yr fixed scenari...
Mon, Jul 21 2025, 11:51 AM
“Sometimes, someone unexpected comes into your life outta nowhere, makes your heart race, and changes you forever. We call those people cops. (Where d...
Mon, Jul 21 2025, 11:46 AM
It seems like only 2 weeks ago (because it was) that we encountered an entire week without any major events on the econ calendar. The present week is ...
Fri, Jul 18 2025, 5:28 PM
Needle Threaded. Now What?
As always, big-ticket data and/or news headlines have potential energy in terms...
Fri, Jul 18 2025, 5:10 PM
While any rate watcher's bingo card should always have a few squares devoted to "unchanged, flat, etc.," this week's had at least as many squares rese...
Fri, Jul 18 2025, 3:05 PM
Mortgage application activity dropped sharply last week as rates moved higher, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest survey. Th...
Fri, Jul 18 2025, 2:51 PM
Builders are placing their better days in the future according to the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo's latest Housing Mar...
Fri, Jul 18 2025, 2:41 PM
The latest Residential Construction report from the Census Bureau showed a mixed bag for June, with a modest gain in overall housing starts driven by ...
Fri, Jul 18 2025, 12:02 PM
At the end of a week with a few big ticket economic reports and unexpected headline-induced volatility, who wouldn't like a break? Friday's calendar ...
Fri, Jul 18 2025, 11:54 AM
With all of this talk about replacing people in our biz, could this be a future mortgage banker’s conference? Delta is moving toward eliminating set p...
Thu, Jul 17 2025, 3:55 PM
Bonds Unfazed by Econ Data
If you had to guess at the bond market's response this morning based solely on th...
Thu, Jul 17 2025, 2:51 PM
Despite all of the economic data and news headlines over the past few days, mortgage rates have barely budged since last Friday. That was not what we ...
Thu, Jul 17 2025, 11:52 AM
“I forgot to put the seat belt on my five-year-old boy this morning and as we were leaving the trailer park, somebody shouted, ‘You're an irresponsibl...
Thu, Jul 17 2025, 10:52 AM
There were multiple economic reports on tap this morning (4 of them in the 8:30am slot), but the headliner on a Retail Sales day is almost always goin...
Wed, Jul 16 2025, 3:48 PM
Bonds Give Free Preview of Post-Powell Momentum
Everyone loves a good free preview, but not all of the bond ...
Wed, Jul 16 2025, 3:06 PM
This morning brought another inflation report. Given the negative reaction to yesterday's inflation data, there was some cause for concern. Thankfully...
Wed, Jul 16 2025, 11:52 AM
JPMorgan told FinTechs that it will charge for access to its customers’ bank information. The fees would bring big bucks to JPMorgan but eat into the ...
Wed, Jul 16 2025, 10:21 AM
Tuesday's CPI reaction was frustrating. Bonds rallied for an hour only to sell off for the rest of the day starting at 9:30am. Things are off to a di...
Tue, Jul 15 2025, 4:08 PM
What's Up With The Paradoxical CPI Reaction?
Heading into today's data, we knew there was a possibility of t...
Tue, Jul 15 2025, 3:06 PM
Mortgage rates are based on bonds and bonds don't like inflation. When inflation reports are higher than the market expected, rates tend to rise, all...
Tue, Jul 15 2025, 11:53 AM
Here’s a cool password: 2 444 66666 8888888 9. (You can figure it out.) I’m no IT wizard, but some are. Do you want AI to open your emails and create ...
Tue, Jul 15 2025, 9:29 AM
If market watchers get out their magnifying glasses, they can certainly find some evidence of tariffs impacting inflation in various goods, but those ...
Mon, Jul 14 2025, 3:27 PM
All Eyes on CPI
Bonds have sold off a bit so far in July, but haven't lost much more ground versus last Tues...
Mon, Jul 14 2025, 2:59 PM
Today's movement in mortgage rates, in and of itself, is barely worth mentioning. The average lender remains close enough to Friday's levels but is t...
Mon, Jul 14 2025, 11:50 AM
In news for fans of the wholesale lending channel (more below), heading into the baseball All Star Break the Philadelphia Phillies, owned in part by F...
Mon, Jul 14 2025, 10:33 AM
Monday is proving to be a good candidate for a bonus summertime weekend day so far. Volumes and volatility were low overnight and trading levels are i...
Fri, Jul 11 2025, 5:09 PM
Bonds Bracing For CPI Impact
Stocks sold off quickly in the overnight session in response to the announcemen...
Fri, Jul 11 2025, 1:45 PM
Yesterday, we characterized the prevailing mortgage rate momentum as "broadly sideways," and while that's still very true in the bigger picture, words...
Fri, Jul 11 2025, 11:40 AM
Don’t forget to snag your free Slurpee today at participating 7-Elevens! Speaking of edible things, I like my Frosted Flakes, Froot Loops, and Raisin ...
Fri, Jul 11 2025, 10:31 AM
In terms of news that seems like it should be important, the biggest overnight development was the announcement of a 35% tariff on Canadian imports st...
