Tue, Dec 9 2025, 4:18 PM
Wednesday is All About Dot Plot and Powell
Bonds lost ground moderately and logically on Tuesday in response...
Tue, Dec 9 2025, 3:59 PM
Mortgage rates were surprisingly steady on Tuesday with most lenders roughly in line with Monday's levels. Why surprising? Because the bond market wa...
Tue, Dec 9 2025, 11:43 AM
“Seminar ‘How to avoid frauds’ is canceled. Tickets are non-refundable.” Collectively, we don’t want mortgage fraud, right? It’s a non-partisan issue....
Tue, Dec 9 2025, 11:36 AM
Tuesday is a fairly straightforward session for the bond market. By now, we assume most of the pre-Fed positioning would be out of the way, and we kn...
Mon, Dec 8 2025, 4:26 PM
Pre Fed Jitters? Not Exactly
Both stocks and bonds began to swoon moments after this morning's 9:30am NYSE o...
Mon, Dec 8 2025, 4:02 PM
Both stocks and bonds lost ground on Monday. This pushed mortgage rates up near their highest levels in just over 3 months (because mortgages are base...
Mon, Dec 8 2025, 11:26 AM
“Blimps are one of the only forms of advertisement people are actually excited to see.” “Rob, we see all kinds of companies advertising at conferences...
Mon, Dec 8 2025, 10:07 AM
Bonds are under pressure yet again at the start of the new week--insult added to injury coming off of the worst week of selling since the late October...
Fri, Dec 5 2025, 4:40 PM
Technicals Help Reconcile Selling Pressure
In the realm of market commentary, technicals are a vastly overus...
Fri, Dec 5 2025, 4:06 PM
Average mortgage rates drifted slightly higher to end the week, though they remained under the levels seen on Monday and Tuesday. Even then, none of t...
Fri, Dec 5 2025, 1:43 PM
Seasonally adjusted mortgage application activity edged 1.4% lower last week according to MBA’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week endin...
Fri, Dec 5 2025, 11:45 AM
Recently I paid over $10 for a simple Oscar Mayer 12-ounce package of bacon. Jerome Powell, help me! Well, the U.S. Federal Reserve doesn’t set bacon ...
Fri, Dec 5 2025, 10:33 AM
If there's one resounding theme in the bond market this week, it's that trading momentum marched to its own beat with almost zero regard for the avail...
Thu, Dec 4 2025, 4:21 PM
Bond Momentum Continues Ignoring Data
On multiple recent occasions, we've seen bonds make a moderate move on...
Thu, Dec 4 2025, 3:46 PM
Today's mortgage rates a just a hair higher than yesterday's and although yesterday's rates were reasonably close to last Friday's, they were still de...
Thu, Dec 4 2025, 11:39 AM
“No plan survives contact with the enemy.” While Freddie rolled out its AI plans, for some lenders, mortgage companies owned by builders, and the buil...
Thu, Dec 4 2025, 8:53 AM
Bonds were already slightly weaker in the overnight session, but the Jobless Claims data won't be any help. Initial claims fell to 191k--the lowest t...
Wed, Dec 3 2025, 4:33 PM
Weaker Data Endorses the In-Progress Rally
Who knows how today would have ended up if the relevant econ data...
Wed, Dec 3 2025, 4:02 PM
Mortgage rates improved more noticeably today, and while the average rate isn't quite as low as it was last week, it's fairly close. Rates are based...
Wed, Dec 3 2025, 11:42 AM
Both Dick Van Dyke and Mel Brooks turn 100, Dick in less than two weeks and Mel next summer. 100 years is a long time, and it’s a big number. Despite ...
Wed, Dec 3 2025, 8:37 AM
10yr yields are almost 4bps lower in early trading and the ADP employment report came in at -32k vs a +10k forecast. The logical conclusion would be t...
Tue, Dec 2 2025, 4:02 PM
Steady Gains Throughout The Day
Bonds began the day in modestly weaker territory although MBS were fairly qu...
Tue, Dec 2 2025, 3:33 PM
Unlike Monday, which saw a fairly brisk move toward higher rates, Tuesday barely budged. Additionally, the budging occurred in a friendly direction wi...
Tue, Dec 2 2025, 11:44 AM
I don’t know about you, but a hot shower or bath always sounds good. Tech wizards, however, have created a human washing machine. I’ll pass. At this p...
Tue, Dec 2 2025, 10:49 AM
The early days of a new trading month and the positioning ahead of next week's Fed announcement have resulted in clear curve trading biases. In Engli...
Mon, Dec 1 2025, 4:04 PM
Complete Silence After AM Volatility
Bonds were mostly flat overnight before a sharp sell-off from 8am throu...
Mon, Dec 1 2025, 3:34 PM
Mortgage rates are based on bonds and the bond market is prone to erratic behavior on major holiday weeks. One of the more common patterns is for the ...
Mon, Dec 1 2025, 11:45 AM
A buddy from Kentucky wrote to me, saying, “Statistics show that the average person has sex 89 times per year. Looks like I'm in for a pretty wild Dec...
Mon, Dec 1 2025, 10:13 AM
Bonds are sharply weaker to begin the new week and the new month. This is the first (and probably best) clue as to the nature of this morning's market...
Fri, Nov 28 2025, 12:55 PM
As is most often the case, the Friday after Thanksgiving added nothing interesting to mortgage rate momentum. The average lender's top tier 30yr fixe...
Fri, Nov 28 2025, 12:53 PM
Open But Not Really Open
This is just a reminder that the Friday after Thanksgiving is the most useless and ...
Fri, Nov 28 2025, 11:45 AM
When did our business start with the catchy slogans? Stay alive in ’25? Stay in the mix in ’26. It’ll be heaven in ’27. How about, “Try to earn a litt...
Wed, Nov 26 2025, 2:55 PM
Holiday Week Volatility With Zero Consequence
Although there was a brief negative reaction to this morning's...
Wed, Nov 26 2025, 2:52 PM
Wednesday was far less eventful than the first two days of the week as far as mortgage rates were concerned. The average lender raised rates just a ha...
Wed, Nov 26 2025, 11:42 AM
The new phone books are here, the new phone books are here! Oh, wait a minute. The new conventional conforming loan limits are here! The new conventio...
Wed, Nov 26 2025, 8:55 AM
Bonds were just slightly weaker overnight but are losing more ground in early trading. The culprit: both of this morning's 8:30am ET economic release...
Tue, Nov 25 2025, 5:08 PM
Best Closing Levels in Nearly a Month
Bonds improved only moderately on Tuesday in a move that's just as eas...
Tue, Nov 25 2025, 4:04 PM
Mortgage rates moved nicely lower on Tuesday with the average lender very close to the 2025 lows seen in late October. These levels are effectively ri...
Tue, Nov 25 2025, 3:13 PM
Both the FHFA and the S&P/Cotality Case-Shiller home-price indices released new data this week. The message remains consistent: home prices are still ...
Tue, Nov 25 2025, 11:52 AM
Want better affordability? Lower house prices certainly helps, and this article states that more than half of homes in the United States have fallen i...
Tue, Nov 25 2025, 8:53 AM
ADP's weekly employment report showed another contraction at -13.5k, but unlike last week, no one seems to care. We also got the delayed release of Re...
Mon, Nov 24 2025, 4:39 PM
Lowest Yields in Almost 4 Weeks Despite Ongoing Stock Market Recovery
There's no question that stock prices ...
Mon, Nov 24 2025, 4:15 PM
Thanksgiving weeks can be weird for mortgage rates. This has to do with the fact that rates are dictated by the bond market and the bond market depend...
Mon, Nov 24 2025, 11:45 AM
“Remember to bring up politics at Thanksgiving to save some money on Christmas presents.” “What do tornadoes and Tennessee divorces have in common? So...
Mon, Nov 24 2025, 10:04 AM
It's a data-free Monday on a holiday-shortened week and there aren't any high-impact headlines or massive stock swings to spark any serious bond marke...
Fri, Nov 21 2025, 3:04 PM
Bonds Hold Gains Despite Ongoing Recovery in Stocks
The stock market factored into the bond market's perform...
Fri, Nov 21 2025, 1:53 PM
Recent stock market losses have gotten a lot attention in the news recently. While there's no reliable correlation between stocks and interest rates, ...
Fri, Nov 21 2025, 1:45 PM
Existing-home sales posted another modest gain in October, rising 1.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.10 million , according to the Nation...
Fri, Nov 21 2025, 1:37 PM
Mortgage applications moved lower last week as rates continued drifting higher for a third straight week. MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey for the wee...
Fri, Nov 21 2025, 1:01 PM
Builder confidence levels are still kicking the same sad little can down the road, just with slightly more enthusiasm. The November National Associati...
