Today, 4:03 PM
In a Shocking Twist, Bonds Relive Another Groundhog Day
The present week began on a stronger note thanks to ...
Today, 3:47 PM
Early in the trading session, the bond market began improving in response to more updates on a potential Iran peace deal. When bonds improve, rates fa...
Today, 11:06 AM
How ‘bout this one: A firefighter went to the college graduation ceremony for a baby he helped deliver many years ago. Loan originators can be involve...
Today, 8:50 AM
It seems that we've seen slight variations on the same peace deal news for the past several days. That's probably because there is an actual peace dea...
Tue, May 26 2026, 3:32 PM
Good Reminder That The Market Gets to Decide What Matters
If oil, Treasuries, stocks, and the rest of the ma...
Tue, May 26 2026, 2:48 PM
Although mortgage rates are still relatively close to their highest levels in 9 months, they continue moving lower after hitting those highs as the be...
Tue, May 26 2026, 11:25 AM
The gap between where rates are and where households “need them to be” is suppressing labor mobility, distorting retirement decisions, and reshaping e...
Tue, May 26 2026, 9:35 AM
On Sunday evening, the NYT ran a story that the U.S. and Iran had agreed in principle to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The key distinct...
Fri, May 22 2026, 3:05 PM
Bonds Scratch Out a Win Amid Dueling Headlines
Bonds remain surprisingly willing to react to the most seemin...
Fri, May 22 2026, 1:19 PM
Mortgage lenders rely on the bond market to generate mortgage rates. In addition to being fully closed on Monday for Memorial Day, bonds also close 3 ...
Fri, May 22 2026, 12:36 PM
Residential construction activity was mixed again in April, as building permits rebounded while housing starts pulled back modestly from March’s stron...
Fri, May 22 2026, 12:31 PM
Mortgage applications pulled back last week as rising rates weighed on homebuyer demand, while refinance activity remained largely flat. The Mortgage ...
Fri, May 22 2026, 12:04 PM
Builder confidence improved modestly in May, though sentiment remained subdued as elevated mortgage rates, affordability pressures, and broader econom...
Fri, May 22 2026, 11:49 AM
Wanna know the new buzz acronym? Residential Transition Loans (RTL): financing for properties in transition, including fix-and-flip, bridge, and rehab...
Fri, May 22 2026, 8:59 AM
Bonds are starting the session at the best levels of the week with modest overnight gains getting a small boost from news that Pakistan's army chief (...
Thu, May 21 2026, 4:05 PM
Peace Deal Rumors Make For Mid-Day Reversal
Bonds started the day in fairly forgettable and slightly weaker ...
Thu, May 21 2026, 2:40 PM
After posting a decent recovery from 9-month highs yesterday, it looked like mortgage rates were destined to bounce back toward slightly higher levels...
Thu, May 21 2026, 11:15 AM
Lots of folks were leaving the MBA’s National Secondary yesterday, and many comments and questions were heard. “Did you hear that Jerry Seinfeld is do...
Thu, May 21 2026, 9:19 AM
Bonds spent most of the overnight session moving sideways to slightly stronger, but everything changed at 6:20am. That's when news broke regarding a s...
Wed, May 20 2026, 4:19 PM
Full Reversal And Then Some
Bonds more than made up from Tuesday's rout with a massive rally on Wednesday. U...
Wed, May 20 2026, 2:58 PM
Wednesday brought some much-needed relief for the mortgage market after rates surged to new 9 month highs of 6.75% yesterday. Whereas that rate spike ...
Wed, May 20 2026, 11:43 AM
Here in New York, as over a thousand of us head to airports (hopefully avoiding manholes… tragic), the mood has been pragmatic. Not overly optimistic,...
Wed, May 20 2026, 10:24 AM
Tuesday's massive wave of bond-specific weakness still has the analytical community scratching its collective head. Our contacts are either saying not...
Tue, May 19 2026, 4:57 PM
Whales Making Waves in Treasury Futures
Nerd alert: there's no way to discuss what happened in the bond mark...
Tue, May 19 2026, 3:28 PM
It was another rough day for the bond market and, thus, for interest rates. Investors aggressively sold bonds in the first 2 hours of trading, taking ...
Tue, May 19 2026, 11:55 AM
One of the discussion topics here in New York at the MBA conference is, just like every other conference, artificial intelligence, and one of the ques...
Tue, May 19 2026, 9:40 AM
Ever since the initial 2 week ceasefire was announced in the Iran war, the bond market has adhered to trend channels that align with either de-escalat...
Mon, May 18 2026, 4:18 PM
Bombarded by Headlines, But Little-Changed
Monday's trading session ended up being an exercise in headline-w...
Mon, May 18 2026, 3:34 PM
Mortgage rates hit their highest levels in more than 9 months at the end of last week. Now today, they've edged slightly higher yet again with the ave...
Mon, May 18 2026, 11:43 AM
For those of you who like maps, here’s one of the states’ closing costs. And here’s something for companies who have training programs: New hires shou...
Mon, May 18 2026, 10:36 AM
Bonds began the overnight session by drifting somewhat higher in yield. The 10yr hit 4.63 before recovering modestly just before domestic trading bega...
Fri, May 15 2026, 5:12 PM
Bonds Continued Drifting Weaker Throughout The Day
Nothing new or interesting happened during the course of ...
Fri, May 15 2026, 2:12 PM
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released a highly technical research paper this week examining how the agency handled missing shelter inflation data du...
Fri, May 15 2026, 2:04 PM
Refinance activity continued to recover in the first quarter of 2026, but mortgage servicers retained a smaller share of borrowers despite the stronge...
Fri, May 15 2026, 1:58 PM
Existing-home sales edged slightly higher in April, stabilizing after March’s decline as improving affordability and increased inventory provided mode...
Fri, May 15 2026, 1:52 PM
Mortgage applications increased modestly last week, as stronger purchase activity more than offset a slight decline in refinances. The Mortgage Banker...
Fri, May 15 2026, 12:40 PM
Mortgage rates are driven by bonds and the bond market hoped to see more evidence of shift toward peace during the 2-day Trump/Xi meeting in China. As...
Fri, May 15 2026, 10:57 AM
As the legal and proxy battles are waged among Two Harbors, UWM, and CrossCountry, today I head to New York for the MBA's Secondary & Capital Markets ...
Fri, May 15 2026, 9:19 AM
Far too many market participants were apparently hoping that some sort of positive news on the war would be somehow facilitated by the Trump/Xi summit...
Thu, May 14 2026, 4:22 PM
Rally Reverses, Leaving Bonds Weaker in The Afternoon
The day began with promise, but devolved into yet anot...
Thu, May 14 2026, 3:20 PM
May continues to be a more volatile month than the bulk of April when it comes to day over day mortgage rate movement. While the average day has seen ...
Thu, May 14 2026, 11:03 AM
How do you go about trying to run your company’s AI efforts without knowing the rules? Testing suggests Google's AI overviews tells millions of lies p...
Thu, May 14 2026, 9:46 AM
A recovery toward lower oil prices paved the way for the bond market to recover yesterday morning's weakness and the same theme continued in the overn...
Wed, May 13 2026, 3:38 PM
MBS Fully Recover After Initial Reaction to Inflation Data
There's no question that this morning's PPI data ...
Wed, May 13 2026, 2:58 PM
Mortgage rates rose somewhat sharply yesterday to match the highest level since March 27th. They're just a hair higher today, thus officially at 6-wee...
Wed, May 13 2026, 10:55 AM
The April FOMC Meeting concluded with the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged, and it was the last under Jerome Powell's chairmanship. Chair Powell i...
Wed, May 13 2026, 10:21 AM
The Producer Price Index (PPI) is much more volatile and, on average, much less of a market mover than the Consumer Price Index (CPI), but occasionall...
Tue, May 12 2026, 4:06 PM
Highest Yields in 10 Months on War Headlines and Auction Concessions
Because CPI came out slightly higher to...
Tue, May 12 2026, 3:28 PM
When the Iran war was in its initial escalation phase, the initial surge in markets took the top-tier 30yr fixed rate to 6.64% for the average lender ...
Tue, May 12 2026, 10:52 AM
If you’re hoping that the summer is going to bring a trend of purchase market prosperity, I hope you’re right but there are indications otherwise. Roc...
