Fri, May 29 2026, 4:02 PM
Markets Were Skeptical of Mid-Day Peace Headlines and That Was a Good Instinct
A few hours into the trading ...
Fri, May 29 2026, 1:34 PM
While there are still a few hours left in the trading day, it's a near certainty that this week will end with mortgage rates at meaningfully lower lev...
Fri, May 29 2026, 1:27 PM
New home sales pulled back in April after stronger readings in the prior two months. According to the latest Census Bureau and HUD data, sales of new ...
Fri, May 29 2026, 1:20 PM
Mortgage applications fell sharply last week as higher borrowing costs continued to pressure refinance demand, while purchase activity showed a bit mo...
Fri, May 29 2026, 12:25 PM
Home price appreciation slowed further in March and through the first quarter of 2026, according to the latest data from both FHFA and the S&P Cota...
Fri, May 29 2026, 12:07 PM
U.S. home foreclosures are accelerating: filings rose 26 percent year-over-year in Q1 2026, to roughly 119k, the highest in six years. It’s expensive ...
Fri, May 29 2026, 10:03 AM
Bonds were flat overnight for a change, with just a bit of 2-way volatility but no notable directional movement. Without any new or interesting war-re...
Thu, May 28 2026, 3:46 PM
Spoiler Alert: Yes, It Was War Headlines
Need a way to explain overnight weakness in the bond market? War he...
Thu, May 28 2026, 3:08 PM
We were close yesterday and we officially arrived today. Mortgage rates may still be elevated compared to almost all of the past 10 months, but they'r...
Thu, May 28 2026, 11:55 AM
What is something that small and mid-sized lenders can’t offer? Chase rolled out a program for borrowers to earn 100,000 Chase Points. (Bilt and UWM r...
Thu, May 28 2026, 9:31 AM
There's a supertanker load of data this morning with some apparently interesting results, but the market remains focused primarily on supertankers bei...
Wed, May 27 2026, 4:03 PM
In a Shocking Twist, Bonds Relive Another Groundhog Day
The present week began on a stronger note thanks to ...
Wed, May 27 2026, 3:47 PM
Early in the trading session, the bond market began improving in response to more updates on a potential Iran peace deal. When bonds improve, rates fa...
Wed, May 27 2026, 11:06 AM
How ‘bout this one: A firefighter went to the college graduation ceremony for a baby he helped deliver many years ago. Loan originators can be involve...
Wed, May 27 2026, 8:50 AM
It seems that we've seen slight variations on the same peace deal news for the past several days. That's probably because there is an actual peace dea...
Tue, May 26 2026, 3:32 PM
Good Reminder That The Market Gets to Decide What Matters
If oil, Treasuries, stocks, and the rest of the ma...
Tue, May 26 2026, 2:48 PM
Although mortgage rates are still relatively close to their highest levels in 9 months, they continue moving lower after hitting those highs as the be...
Tue, May 26 2026, 11:25 AM
The gap between where rates are and where households “need them to be” is suppressing labor mobility, distorting retirement decisions, and reshaping e...
Tue, May 26 2026, 9:35 AM
On Sunday evening, the NYT ran a story that the U.S. and Iran had agreed in principle to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The key distinct...
Fri, May 22 2026, 3:05 PM
Bonds Scratch Out a Win Amid Dueling Headlines
Bonds remain surprisingly willing to react to the most seemin...
Fri, May 22 2026, 1:19 PM
Mortgage lenders rely on the bond market to generate mortgage rates. In addition to being fully closed on Monday for Memorial Day, bonds also close 3 ...
Fri, May 22 2026, 12:36 PM
Residential construction activity was mixed again in April, as building permits rebounded while housing starts pulled back modestly from March’s stron...
Fri, May 22 2026, 12:31 PM
Mortgage applications pulled back last week as rising rates weighed on homebuyer demand, while refinance activity remained largely flat. The Mortgage ...
Fri, May 22 2026, 12:04 PM
Builder confidence improved modestly in May, though sentiment remained subdued as elevated mortgage rates, affordability pressures, and broader econom...
Fri, May 22 2026, 11:49 AM
Wanna know the new buzz acronym? Residential Transition Loans (RTL): financing for properties in transition, including fix-and-flip, bridge, and rehab...
Fri, May 22 2026, 8:59 AM
Bonds are starting the session at the best levels of the week with modest overnight gains getting a small boost from news that Pakistan's army chief (...
Thu, May 21 2026, 4:05 PM
Peace Deal Rumors Make For Mid-Day Reversal
Bonds started the day in fairly forgettable and slightly weaker ...
Thu, May 21 2026, 2:40 PM
After posting a decent recovery from 9-month highs yesterday, it looked like mortgage rates were destined to bounce back toward slightly higher levels...
Thu, May 21 2026, 11:15 AM
Lots of folks were leaving the MBA’s National Secondary yesterday, and many comments and questions were heard. “Did you hear that Jerry Seinfeld is do...
Thu, May 21 2026, 9:19 AM
Bonds spent most of the overnight session moving sideways to slightly stronger, but everything changed at 6:20am. That's when news broke regarding a s...
Wed, May 20 2026, 4:19 PM
Full Reversal And Then Some
Bonds more than made up from Tuesday's rout with a massive rally on Wednesday. U...
Wed, May 20 2026, 2:58 PM
Wednesday brought some much-needed relief for the mortgage market after rates surged to new 9 month highs of 6.75% yesterday. Whereas that rate spike ...
Wed, May 20 2026, 11:43 AM
Here in New York, as over a thousand of us head to airports (hopefully avoiding manholes… tragic), the mood has been pragmatic. Not overly optimistic,...
Wed, May 20 2026, 10:24 AM
Tuesday's massive wave of bond-specific weakness still has the analytical community scratching its collective head. Our contacts are either saying not...
Tue, May 19 2026, 4:57 PM
Whales Making Waves in Treasury Futures
Nerd alert: there's no way to discuss what happened in the bond mark...
Tue, May 19 2026, 3:28 PM
It was another rough day for the bond market and, thus, for interest rates. Investors aggressively sold bonds in the first 2 hours of trading, taking ...
Tue, May 19 2026, 11:55 AM
One of the discussion topics here in New York at the MBA conference is, just like every other conference, artificial intelligence, and one of the ques...
Tue, May 19 2026, 9:40 AM
Ever since the initial 2 week ceasefire was announced in the Iran war, the bond market has adhered to trend channels that align with either de-escalat...
Mon, May 18 2026, 4:18 PM
Bombarded by Headlines, But Little-Changed
Monday's trading session ended up being an exercise in headline-w...
Mon, May 18 2026, 3:34 PM
Mortgage rates hit their highest levels in more than 9 months at the end of last week. Now today, they've edged slightly higher yet again with the ave...
Mon, May 18 2026, 11:43 AM
For those of you who like maps, here’s one of the states’ closing costs. And here’s something for companies who have training programs: New hires shou...
Mon, May 18 2026, 10:36 AM
Bonds began the overnight session by drifting somewhat higher in yield. The 10yr hit 4.63 before recovering modestly just before domestic trading bega...
Fri, May 15 2026, 5:12 PM
Bonds Continued Drifting Weaker Throughout The Day
Nothing new or interesting happened during the course of ...
Fri, May 15 2026, 2:12 PM
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released a highly technical research paper this week examining how the agency handled missing shelter inflation data du...
Fri, May 15 2026, 2:04 PM
Refinance activity continued to recover in the first quarter of 2026, but mortgage servicers retained a smaller share of borrowers despite the stronge...
Fri, May 15 2026, 1:58 PM
Existing-home sales edged slightly higher in April, stabilizing after March’s decline as improving affordability and increased inventory provided mode...
Fri, May 15 2026, 1:52 PM
Mortgage applications increased modestly last week, as stronger purchase activity more than offset a slight decline in refinances. The Mortgage Banker...
Fri, May 15 2026, 12:40 PM
Mortgage rates are driven by bonds and the bond market hoped to see more evidence of shift toward peace during the 2-day Trump/Xi meeting in China. As...
Fri, May 15 2026, 10:57 AM
As the legal and proxy battles are waged among Two Harbors, UWM, and CrossCountry, today I head to New York for the MBA's Secondary & Capital Markets ...
Fri, May 15 2026, 9:19 AM
Far too many market participants were apparently hoping that some sort of positive news on the war would be somehow facilitated by the Trump/Xi summit...
