Today, 11:05 AM
Most of us 30 years old and older have tales about where they were and what they did 25 years ago. Being in capital markets, and selling MBS, for over...
Today, 9:43 AM
We've been saying for a while that the longer end of the bond market really wants to see the Fed get serious about fighting inflation. This is why yie...
Thu, Sep 10 2026, 4:38 PM
Ugly Snowball Selling Thanks to Oil and Inflation Data
MBS lost nearly a full point by 4pm ET and 10yr yield...
Thu, Sep 10 2026, 2:44 PM
You may have seen other headlines today that reference 30yr fixed rates of 6.76%. Those stories would be citing Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey which...
Thu, Sep 10 2026, 11:43 AM
Here in San Antonio, TX, interest rates are obviously part of mortgage event discussion. (On today’s The Big Picture Guild’s David Battany will be dis...
Thu, Sep 10 2026, 9:18 AM
It's been a rough couple of days for the bond market. Yesterday, it was Bessent and the reaction to the Treasury buyback announcement. Today it is an ...
Wed, Sep 9 2026, 3:52 PM
Bonds to Bessent: Challenge Accepted
When the Yellen Treasury rolled out the buyback program in 2023/2024, t...
Wed, Sep 9 2026, 3:07 PM
What do mortgage rates have to do with Treasuries? Quite a lot, actually. U.S. Treasuries are the bills and bonds issued by the government. In additio...
Wed, Sep 9 2026, 11:05 AM
What should we talk about today? Besides TSA bringing back gate access, here’s a leading IMB exec and his wife putting their Florida home on the marke...
Wed, Sep 9 2026, 10:30 AM
Not much is going on in terms of scheduled economic events until Thursday and Friday's PPI and CPI reports respectively. Those could be very big deals...
Tue, Sep 8 2026, 3:48 PM
Early Strength Gives Way to Steady Selling
Bonds started the day in fairly good shape with a rally at the op...
Tue, Sep 8 2026, 3:09 PM
Top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rates started the week right where they were on Friday for the average lender. At 6.89%, we're just a hair below the high...
Tue, Sep 8 2026, 11:03 AM
Many years ago, it seemed like people bragged about how late they stayed up at conferences. Now they brag about how early they went sleep. Today I hea...
Tue, Sep 8 2026, 9:46 AM
To be sure, bonds are still very tuned-in to oil price movement with a high level of moment-to-moment correlation. That dynamic has seen yields trade ...
Fri, Sep 4 2026, 4:53 PM
Surprisingly Light Selling Given The Econ Data
Today's market reaction to the big beat in NFP (162k vs 56k) ...
Fri, Sep 4 2026, 2:57 PM
Mortgage application activity showed some signs of life last week, with a modest increase in purchase demand helping offset another decline in refinan...
Fri, Sep 4 2026, 2:49 PM
Mortgage rates have a long and storied past with the monthly jobs report. Officially titled "The Employment Situation," the Bureau of Labor Statistics...
Fri, Sep 4 2026, 11:47 AM
Make sure that your air conditioning is in good condition, as well as clients’. Loan servicers are wondering about their collateral: “Heat in the ocea...
Fri, Sep 4 2026, 8:42 AM
The jobs count surged higher (162k vs 56k f'cast) in this morning's jobs report. While such wild divergences will have the masses crying foul, and whi...
Thu, Sep 3 2026, 4:24 PM
Still a Resilient Day Despite Afternoon Weakness
The day's most notable development, by far, was the speech ...
Thu, Sep 3 2026, 3:59 PM
Mortgage rates finally had a decent day on Thursday after spending the previous three days inching into the highest levels in more than a year. Part o...
Thu, Sep 3 2026, 11:04 AM
Broker and Lender Products, Software, and Services As AI becomes embedded across the mortgage lifecycle, lenders are rethinking how they use data to...
Thu, Sep 3 2026, 9:56 AM
There were two separate positive developments for bonds this morning. The most obvious and actionable example was series of comments from Fed's Waller...
Wed, Sep 2 2026, 5:01 PM
Relatively Drama-Free Day
These things happen from time to time. The bond market finally had an uneventful d...
Wed, Sep 2 2026, 3:08 PM
First things first: when we reference average, daily, top-tier 30yr fixed rates, it is for an ideal scenario that rarely exists in the wild. The avera...
Wed, Sep 2 2026, 11:25 AM
I’ve been in capital markets for over 40 years, and this rate and affordability environment is tough. Any lender who finds these higher rates boring, ...
Wed, Sep 2 2026, 10:32 AM
Bonds were initially a hair weaker overnight but reversed course starting around 7am ET as oil prices fell. On the other hand, oil had already begun m...
Tue, Sep 1 2026, 4:50 PM
More War. More Selling
Tuesday was as straightforward as it was unpleasant for the bond market. Mid-day news...
Tue, Sep 1 2026, 4:02 PM
Fighting intensified today between the U.S. and Iran. Oil prices moved higher fairly quickly and bond yields followed. This has been a common pattern ...
Tue, Sep 1 2026, 11:50 AM
I don’t know where August went, but it went somewhere. We’re now two thirds of the way through the 3rd quarter of 2026. Lenders and vendors are adapti...
Tue, Sep 1 2026, 9:45 AM
Bond yields broke long term highs yesterday and are moving slightly higher again today. In both cases, we're NOT seeing the same level of intraday cor...
Mon, Aug 31 2026, 5:00 PM
Technically a Breakout, But It Could Have Been Worse
10yr yields closed just under 4.74 at the end of July a...
Mon, Aug 31 2026, 4:02 PM
Bonds lost ground today, largely due to mechanical, month-end trading (i.e. not due to economic data, inflation, or news headlines). When bonds lose g...
Mon, Aug 31 2026, 10:34 AM
Grammar is important. Let’s not forget the comma… the difference between “I want you to eat, my friend” and “I want you to eat my friend.” Let’s not f...
Mon, Aug 31 2026, 10:13 AM
Bonds were actually a hair stronger at the open, but quickly tanked just after 8am. The nature of said tankage is strongly suggestive of month-end pos...
Fri, Aug 28 2026, 5:22 PM
Hawkish Read on Warsh Prompts Heavy Selling
Jackson Hole speeches are hit and miss when it comes to bond mar...
Fri, Aug 28 2026, 2:45 PM
Jackson Hole is a place in Wyoming, but it's also shorthand for an annual event where various central bankers get together and talk about monetary pol...
Fri, Aug 28 2026, 2:38 PM
Mortgage application activity softened last week, with both purchase and refinance demand moving lower as mortgage rates climbed to their highest leve...
Fri, Aug 28 2026, 2:35 PM
The new home market struggled to maintain the momentum seen in June, with sales falling sharply in July and inventory moving higher. The latest Census...
Fri, Aug 28 2026, 2:25 PM
Home prices continued to edge higher in the latest readings from FHFA and the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Indices , with both measures sho...
Fri, Aug 28 2026, 11:45 AM
STRATMOR’s 2026 Technology Insight® Study Lender Intelligence Survey is now open, giving mortgage lenders a chance to share their firsthand experience...
Fri, Aug 28 2026, 9:43 AM
In an attempt to not force another "Warsh" or "Jackson Hole" headline (because it's a coin flip as to whether it will matter), the calendar offers up ...
Thu, Aug 27 2026, 4:25 PM
Fairly Calm Despite Some Fuel Price Pressure; Warsh on Deck
To reiterate a sentiment from this morning, ther...
Thu, Aug 27 2026, 3:45 PM
Mortgage rates barely budged again on Thursday, but there was far less data to digest compared to Wednesday. Bonds (which dictate rates) were steady t...
Thu, Aug 27 2026, 11:45 AM
Thank you to the folks who wrote to me about their concerns with the Reno fire, knowing my ties there (my place is safe). On a broader scale, as of Au...
Thu, Aug 27 2026, 10:16 AM
While it may end up being a complete non-event, the bond market is counting the hours until Friday's Warsh appearance at Jackson Hole. There's nothing...
Wed, Aug 26 2026, 4:23 PM
Some Pros and Cons in Today's Weakness
Bonds lost ground today, but it wasn't necessarily an unequivocally b...
Wed, Aug 26 2026, 3:29 PM
Intraday volatility in the bond market can make it tricky to track day over day changes in mortgage rates. Lenders publish the day's first rates based...
Wed, Aug 26 2026, 11:45 AM
Hackers intercepted about 103 bank regulators’ e-mails for more than a year, gaining access to highly sensitive financial information, according to tw...
Wed, Aug 26 2026, 8:47 AM
To be fair, not all of the PCE data was higher than expected, but none of the top line numbers were lower than expected. Core PCE was on target (notab...
