Today, 5:01 PM
Ultimately Sort of Flat if You Use Your Imagination
Here's a quick and easy method for imagining that bonds ...
Today, 4:32 PM
Mortgage rates ultimately managed to hold steady on Tuesday despite some underlying market volatility. Rates change day to day (and sometimes intraday...
Today, 11:41 AM
A mullah, a rabbi, and a priest walk into a bar here in New York. The bartender says, “What is this, some kind of joke?” What isn’t a joke is people’s...
Today, 10:11 AM
It's a holiday-shortened week with a relatively empty economic calendar, thus forcing the bond market to find its movement cues elsewhere. To some sma...
Mon, May 19 2025, 3:51 PM
(Un)Surprising Reversal After Initial Weakness
The sharp overnight losses in stocks and bonds were consisten...
Mon, May 19 2025, 3:05 PM
Mortgage rates jumped sharply over the weekend as financial markets reacted to Moody's credit rating downgrade of the U.S. News of the downgrade brok...
Mon, May 19 2025, 11:22 AM
People who don’t attend the National Secondary here in Manhattan wonder what happens behind the scenes. Here you go. We had the MCT elevator failure l...
Mon, May 19 2025, 9:10 AM
When Moody's announced the surprise cut of the US credit rating on Friday, there were only a few minutes left to trade and all but the latest working ...
Fri, May 16 2025, 5:26 PM
Moody's Pulls Pin And Walks Away With 10 Minutes Left to Trade
Bonds began the day stronger after a gentle o...
Fri, May 16 2025, 4:25 PM
The average top tier 30yr fixed rate is set to end the week just a few hundredths of a percent higher than last Friday at 6.92%. That's a victory--al...
Fri, May 16 2025, 4:11 PM
The Census Bureau is out with monthly construction numbers for April showing an uptick in construction activity offset by slightly lower permitting. ...
Fri, May 16 2025, 3:52 PM
The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo released the monthly Housing Market Index (HMI) this week, showing builder confidence ...
Fri, May 16 2025, 2:16 PM
Home purchase demand improved improved last week according to the MBA mortgage application survey. The improvement over the previous week was fairly m...
Fri, May 16 2025, 11:44 AM
This weekend is when many of us head to Manhattan for the MBA’s National Secondary event. For those flying in, check your ticket: NJ Transit’s on stri...
Fri, May 16 2025, 10:34 AM
One might assume that an economic report like Import Prices would carry a lot of weight in light of the news cycle or that the highest 1yr inflation e...
Thu, May 15 2025, 4:25 PM
Today's Gains Help Us Understand Yesterday's Losses
Wednesday's weakness was severely lacking in the scapego...
Thu, May 15 2025, 3:36 PM
Mortgage rates have done almost nothing but move higher in the month of May. The latest bump--seen yesterday--took the average top tier 30yr fixed rat...
Thu, May 15 2025, 11:50 AM
“There’s a splendid saying about the definition of an economist being someone who “will know tomorrow why the things they predicted yesterday didn't h...
Thu, May 15 2025, 9:58 AM
This morning's market action is quickly helping us understand the enigmatic trading seen yesterday (i.e. a sell-off without any great scapegoats). Re...
Wed, May 14 2025, 5:08 PM
Another "Just Because" Sell Off
This is getting old... and unfortunately, more prevalent. The bond market h...
Wed, May 14 2025, 4:26 PM
In early April, amid the most volatile portion of the market's reaction to the tariff announcement, mortgage rates were officially over 7% for a singl...
Wed, May 14 2025, 11:51 AM
As Roy Cohn once instructed a young Donald Trump, much can be accomplished by attacking first and dealing with the consequences later. I get opinions ...
Wed, May 14 2025, 11:13 AM
It's a potentially frustrating time for bond watchers. The rules have already changed in a big way to accommodate the new wild card presented by tarif...
Tue, May 13 2025, 5:07 PM
Bonds End Almost Perfectly Flat
There are two kinds of rate/bond watchers today: those who tuned in late in...
Tue, May 13 2025, 4:26 PM
Tuesday brought the release of an economic report that has frequently been responsible for big swings in mortgage rates. The Consumer Price Index (CPI...
Tue, May 13 2025, 11:45 AM
No one in places like Florida or Myrtle Beach or Colorado’s Glenwood Springs wants to wake up to a headline, sensationalist or not, saying, “Vacation ...
Tue, May 13 2025, 10:49 AM
Heading into the session, we knew there was a high bar for CPI to have a positive influence on bonds with the future tariff landscape reducing the rel...
Mon, May 12 2025, 5:07 PM
Is All News Bad News For Bonds? Will CPI Matter?
At times these day, it may seem like all news is bad news ...
Mon, May 12 2025, 4:32 PM
Tariffs and trade policy have been a new and important consideration for the bond market for just over a month now. That matters to mortgage rates bec...
Mon, May 12 2025, 11:44 AM
Nearly a thousand of us head to Manhattan in less than a week for the MBA’s Secondary Conference. In 2025 Q1, the median asking rent in New York City ...
Mon, May 12 2025, 11:01 AM
10yr yields were up 8bps overnight to the highest levels since April 11th after weekend trade talks between the US and China resulted in significant r...
Fri, May 9 2025, 5:07 PM
Flat Friday, But Volatility Risks Remain
Bonds started weaker, flipped stronger mid-day, and then slowly mov...
Fri, May 9 2025, 4:30 PM
Whether it's today vs yesterday, or today vs the end of last week, the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate is just a hair lower. Today's improv...
Fri, May 9 2025, 11:52 AM
Here’s something that our Fed can’t do anything about, inflation-wise: coconut prices have doubled due to extreme weather events. (More on weather and...
Fri, May 9 2025, 11:04 AM
A glance at today's economic calendar quickly reveals that Fed speeches are the only game in town in terms of scheduled events. But what can the Fed ...
Thu, May 8 2025, 4:52 PM
Surprisingly Big Sell Off Relative to The Inspiration
Bonds ended up selling off somewhat sharply today with...
Thu, May 8 2025, 4:04 PM
Mortgage rates moved back up to the higher levels seen earlier this week after the official announcement of a trade deal between the U.S. and the U.K....
Thu, May 8 2025, 11:42 AM
“Why did the homeowner take so long in remodeling his home? He had trouble with da siding.” There are LOs, or correspondent investors, who have spent ...
Thu, May 8 2025, 11:00 AM
Bonds mostly lost ground in the overnight session, and then lost just a bit more ground after the 8:30am econ data. This consisted of Jobless Claims ...
Wed, May 7 2025, 4:34 PM
Just as Underwhelming as Expected
No sense in trying to manufacture excitement out of something boring. Even...
Wed, May 7 2025, 3:35 PM
There's nothing like a Fed announcement day to get almost every media outlet to run headlines that attempt to tie the day's market movement to the Fed...
Wed, May 7 2025, 2:00 PM
Recent Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pa...
Wed, May 7 2025, 11:48 AM
Most good loan originators are keenly aware of demographics in their area. Aren’t you tired of talking about a lack of inventory and builders’ supply ...
Wed, May 7 2025, 11:04 AM
Wednesday begins with bonds battling back from modest overnight weakness (now moving into modestly stronger territory), but not for any particular rea...
Tue, May 6 2025, 4:10 PM
10yr Auction to The Rescue
Today's 10yr Treasury auction was the only relevant calendar event in terms of po...
Tue, May 6 2025, 3:24 PM
Mortgage rates were unchanged for the average lender this morning, thanks to a modest improvement in the bond market overnight. Rates were on course ...
Tue, May 6 2025, 11:54 AM
This is the month of the MBA’s National Secondary in Manhattan. For some trivia, the nickname "The Big Apple" originated in the 1920s in reference to ...
Tue, May 6 2025, 10:37 AM
Bonds have been on both sides of unchanged so far today. The overnight session began with slightly higher yields followed by a gradual rally. By 9am ...
Mon, May 5 2025, 4:30 PM
Selling Spree Continues, But Gently
Bonds were focused on this morning's ISM Services Index with some trader...
Mon, May 5 2025, 3:51 PM
Mortgage rates faced a slight headwind on Monday as economic data caused weakness in the bond market. This would typically result in higher mortgage r...
