Fri, Nov 7 2025, 2:24 PM
Wednesday's mortgage rates were the highest in roughly a month and very close to the highest levels in 2 months. This followed stronger economic data...
Fri, Nov 7 2025, 11:50 AM
How was the Louve in Paris robbed? The password for the cameras was… ready? Louve. (I’m sure that the Smithsonian, MOMA, and Vatican IT staffs are bus...
Fri, Nov 7 2025, 10:51 AM
Although bonds began the day in roughly unchanged territory, they began losing ground shortly thereafter. Things changed at the 9:30am NYSE open as st...
Thu, Nov 6 2025, 5:14 PM
Have Bonds Found Their Post-Fed Footing?
Looked at one way, bonds have been in a moderate selling trend sinc...
Thu, Nov 6 2025, 4:29 PM
As of yesterday afternoon, mortgage rates were right in line with the highest levels in more than a month. The upward momentum was largely a product o...
Thu, Nov 6 2025, 11:51 AM
Frequent conference goers or traveling salespeople are obviously concerned about the Trump Administration cutting 10 percent of flights for a variety ...
Thu, Nov 6 2025, 10:49 AM
The shutdown has not only placed more emphasis on the alternative data that was already in the rotation, but also fueled interest in new sources. One ...
Wed, Nov 5 2025, 4:08 PM
A common recent refrain is that the bond market (which dictates interest rates) is having to make do without many of the most important regularly-sche...
Wed, Nov 5 2025, 12:00 PM
“Did you hear about the Chinese guy who spoke out against the government? Exactly.” Hate the U.S. Government or love it, sometimes government and lend...
Wed, Nov 5 2025, 10:28 AM
Today is a rare day when it comes to economic data. The first Wednesday of any given month is often an important one for economic data because ISM Se...
Tue, Nov 4 2025, 4:49 PM
Wednesday More Likely to Take Cues From Econ Data
Bonds benefited from heavy stock selling late in the overn...
Tue, Nov 4 2025, 4:33 PM
The average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate was technically 0.01% higher than yesterday, but that's the smallest possible detected move. It's just ...
Tue, Nov 4 2025, 11:44 AM
“Being a parent is like being a psychic who is always right but is always ignored.” Here in Austin, TX, whether it was the Texas Women Mortgage Banker...
Tue, Nov 4 2025, 9:53 AM
It doesn't always work like this, but today's overnight session saw the classic "conventional wisdom" trade with stocks prices and bond yields falling...
Mon, Nov 3 2025, 4:00 PM
Light Volatility After Initial Losses
The first day of the new month began with some potential excitement, a...
Mon, Nov 3 2025, 3:32 PM
Up until last week's Fed announcement, the average 30yr fixed mortgage rate was at the lowest levels in more than a year (in many cases, matching the ...
Mon, Nov 3 2025, 11:45 AM
“Daylight savings time: Is the government cutting off the bottom of a blanket and sewing it to the top and saying, ‘See? Its longer now.’” Here in Aus...
Mon, Nov 3 2025, 11:03 AM
Bonds were moderately weaker in the overnight session with most of the selling arriving at 7:56am ET when Alphabet filed for a large corporate bond of...
Fri, Oct 31 2025, 3:53 PM
Sideways Overall Despite Hawkish Fed Speakers
Although there was some mid-day volatility (early buying follo...
Fri, Oct 31 2025, 3:43 PM
After hitting the highest level in several weeks on Thursday, mortgage rates managed to move moderately lower on Friday. Counterpoint: Friday's rates ...
Fri, Oct 31 2025, 2:09 PM
Both the FHFA and the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices released new home-price data this week covering the month of August. The message is unchanged...
Fri, Oct 31 2025, 1:53 PM
Mortgage applications jumped sharply last week, driven by lower rates and a rebound in refinance activity. According to MBA’s Weekly Applications Surv...
Fri, Oct 31 2025, 11:48 AM
Change is constant. Soon I head to Austin, in the Great State of Texas, for the TMBA’s star-studded Housing Summit where “change” will certainly be st...
Fri, Oct 31 2025, 10:29 AM
With the shutdown ongoing, and the big ticket econ data vanished into the void, there's little for the bond market to do apart from get its books in o...
Thu, Oct 30 2025, 4:59 PM
Uneventfully Flat After Initial Weakness
The bond market only had a little more selling to do thanks to the ...
Thu, Oct 30 2025, 3:42 PM
Every now and then, a Thursday comes along where we have to set the record straight on what is actually going on with mortgage rates. That's because F...
Thu, Oct 30 2025, 11:45 AM
Are you ready to change the time on your car’s clock, or leave it and let it be right again on March 8, 2026? Some technology is cool. Imagine control...
Thu, Oct 30 2025, 10:22 AM
The simplest way to understand yesterday's post-Fed sell-off is as follows. The market's enthusiasm for 3 Fed rate cuts in 2025 had grown a bit too la...
Wed, Oct 29 2025, 4:02 PM
Today was not a foregone conclusion and there was no way to know ahead of time that it would end like this, but the outcome is exactly why we've gone ...
Wed, Oct 29 2025, 3:12 PM
Another Hawkish Powell Press Conference Harshes Bonds' Mellow
The Fed cut rates and ended QT. Neither were ...
Wed, Oct 29 2025, 2:01 PM
Recent Available indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year has been expanding at a moderate pa...
Wed, Oct 29 2025, 11:50 AM
Bonds are a hair weaker this morning with losses showing up in the overnight session and mostly flattening out in domestic trading. Without any big t...
Wed, Oct 29 2025, 11:46 AM
"The U.S. Senate is considering a bill that would tax Botox. When Botox users heard this, they were horrified. Well, I think they were horrified. It's...
Tue, Oct 28 2025, 4:59 PM
Modestly Stronger Ahead of Fed Day
Without any market moving econ data on Tuesday, bonds finally managed to ...
Tue, Oct 28 2025, 4:11 PM
Rates have been flirting with long term lows over the past 2 weeks, but today made it official. Today's average top tier 30yr fixed rate perfectly ma...
Tue, Oct 28 2025, 11:54 AM
My cat Myrtle never liked Halloween, apparently believing it was for amateurs. Our nation has plenty of interesting historical sites related to ghosts...
Tue, Oct 28 2025, 10:57 AM
First off, bonds are doing fine this morning. 10yr yields are technically higher on the day, but only when compared to yesterday's 5pm levels. As fa...
Mon, Oct 27 2025, 3:41 PM
Bonds Improve After Treasury Auctions
Treasury auctions don't always cause a reaction in bonds, but they did...
Mon, Oct 27 2025, 3:15 PM
Mortgage rates fell to the lowest levels in a month last Tuesday and barely budged through the rest of the week. Now, at the start of the new week, th...
Mon, Oct 27 2025, 11:48 AM
I was recently on a hike with a gal pal, and we were talking about her future. I asked, “You don’t have any kids. Who is going to take care of you whe...
Mon, Oct 27 2025, 10:34 AM
As the shutdown continues, econ data remains sparse. This makes for smaller, more range-bound movement overall with last week making a decent case to ...
Fri, Oct 24 2025, 4:47 PM
Decent Recovery After AM Backtracking
CPI data was a mixed bag for bonds. Top-line numbers fueled a quick r...
Fri, Oct 24 2025, 2:45 PM
This morning brought the release of the much-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI). This is one of the two biggest inflation reports from the U.S. go...
Fri, Oct 24 2025, 2:34 PM
Existing-home sales climbed modestly in September, rising 1.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million , according to the National Assoc...
Fri, Oct 24 2025, 2:29 PM
Mortgage application activity edged lower last week, driven by purchases, but the decline was marginal compared to recent swings. According to MBA’s W...
Fri, Oct 24 2025, 11:40 AM
As shown in this video clip, don’t ever underestimate your opponent, or competitor. There were plenty of opponents and competitors at this week’s MBA ...
Fri, Oct 24 2025, 9:47 AM
In terms of topline results, CPI was bond friendly with the core at .223 vs .3 and the headline at 0.3 vs 0.4 in monthly terms. Annually, we're runni...
Thu, Oct 23 2025, 5:00 PM
CPI Just as Risky as Usual--Perhaps More So
Bonds sold off on Thursday in a move that was as easy to chalk u...
Thu, Oct 23 2025, 3:22 PM
Mortgage rates were effectively unchanged on Thursday with the average lender very close to the best levels in over a year. But when it comes to the u...
Thu, Oct 23 2025, 11:46 AM
Economies and strategies impact various groups differently. Remember Mervyn’s, Montgomery Ward, or a dozen other large department stores that are no l...
