Wed, Jul 2 2025, 3:43 PM
Bonds Circle The Wagons Ahead of High Risk NFP
The consensus for tomorrow's NFP (nonfarm payrolls, the princ...
Wed, Jul 2 2025, 2:53 PM
Mortgage rates have generally been falling since May 21st and have done nothing but move lower for more than 2 weeks. That winning streak finally cam...
Wed, Jul 2 2025, 11:51 AM
“Pro Tip: Here’s a friendly 4th of July reminder that absolutely no one is going to watch the videos of the fireworks you record on your phone.” You c...
Wed, Jul 2 2025, 9:54 AM
ADP employment was this morning's key economic report and it came out sharply weaker than expected (-33k vs 95k f'cast). There are many past examples ...
Tue, Jul 1 2025, 4:06 PM
Traders Buy The Dip After AM Data
After a bit of overnight strength and an early morning pull-back, bonds we...
Tue, Jul 1 2025, 3:09 PM
It's been 88 days since the average 30yr fixed mortgage rate was as low as it is today--close enough to 3 months. Some lenders may be higher or lower...
Tue, Jul 1 2025, 11:50 AM
“Life is like a roll of toilet paper: The closer you get to the end, the faster it goes.” Just like that, 2025 is half over. With it have come changes...
Tue, Jul 1 2025, 10:33 AM
Tuesday brings the week's first decent dose of meaningful economic data with both S&P/ISM Manufacturing PMIs and Job Openings. The PMI data was somew...
Mon, Jun 30 2025, 4:45 PM
Steady Gains in the PM Hours
It's common to see the effects of month/quarter-end trading most prominently in...
Mon, Jun 30 2025, 3:28 PM
April 3rd and 4th saw the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rates well into the "mid 6's." Many lenders were able to quote 6.5% at the time. Just...
Mon, Jun 30 2025, 11:42 AM
“The seminar ‘How to avoid frauds’ is canceled. Tickets are non-refundable.” Mortgage fraud is alive and well in the United States. In Utah, Kouri Ric...
Mon, Jun 30 2025, 10:14 AM
Month/quarter end trading is a somewhat esoteric and potentially frustrating concept for the typical market watcher because it seemingly violates the ...
Fri, Jun 27 2025, 3:24 PM
Modest Friday Bounce Does Little to Alter Bigger Picture
After a decent mid-day recover, bonds gave up their...
Fri, Jun 27 2025, 1:16 PM
Friday's mortgage rates ended up being right in line with Thursday's on average. At 6.72%, the MND daily rate index is as low as it's been since earl...
Fri, Jun 27 2025, 11:57 AM
Does anyone pay with cash anymore, or actually have the money in their bank account? Credit card debt is now $1.1 trillion. There is even a credit car...
Fri, Jun 27 2025, 11:36 AM
The National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)—which tracks contract signings on existing homes—has remained rangebound for mor...
Fri, Jun 27 2025, 11:06 AM
New Home Sales fell sharply in May according to the latest report from the U.S. Census Bureau and HUD. After a brief surge in April, the seasonally ad...
Fri, Jun 27 2025, 10:48 AM
Mortgage application activity moved slightly higher last week despite a modest uptick in rates, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) ...
Fri, Jun 27 2025, 10:34 AM
Two months ago, existing home sales reached the highest levels in a year according to the National Association of Realtors. Last month’s report showed...
Fri, Jun 27 2025, 10:04 AM
Bonds are slightly weaker to start the final trading day of the week, but that has nothing to do with this morning's PCE data. Despite being the Fed'...
Thu, Jun 26 2025, 3:32 PM
The Trend is Friendly For Now
A common financial market quip is that the "trend is your friend." We like to...
Thu, Jun 26 2025, 3:02 PM
After topping out on May 21st, the average day for mortgage rates has been a good one. This has been especially true since June 6th with our 30yr fix...
Thu, Jun 26 2025, 11:40 AM
“I've been experimenting with breeding racing deer. People have accused me of just trying to make a fast buck.” There are no fast bucks to be made in ...
Thu, Jun 26 2025, 10:25 AM
Visually, the number of line items in this morning's economic calendar may seem daunting. In fact, several of the reports sound like they should matte...
Wed, Jun 25 2025, 4:21 PM
Mid Day Reversal Leaves Bonds Slightly Stronger
This morning, we noted the lightness of the selling pressure...
Wed, Jun 25 2025, 3:21 PM
The average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate had already dipped to the lowest levels since May 1st at the start of the week. Two additional days of ...
Wed, Jun 25 2025, 11:41 AM
AI doesn’t have an NMLS number. (Zillow has never, ever set foot in a house for that matter.) Do you own a computer? Most in lending do. Elon Musk? I ...
Wed, Jun 25 2025, 11:23 AM
Bonds are taking a breath this morning after hitting the best levels in more than a month yesterday. The event calendar is much lighter than it seems ...
Tue, Jun 24 2025, 3:34 PM
Solid Response to Data and Dovishness
The morning commentary focused more on the relatively dovish tone stru...
Tue, Jun 24 2025, 3:00 PM
Both the FHFA and Case‑Shiller home price indices were released today. While the data collection time frame is from April, they each suggest a similar...
Tue, Jun 24 2025, 2:37 PM
Yesterday saw mortgage rates fall to the best levels since early May. Now, today, we'd have to go all the way back to the end of April to find anythi...
Tue, Jun 24 2025, 11:55 AM
Residential business is coming through in dribs and drabs for many lenders, but that doesn’t stop all the random news out there. To no one’s surprise,...
Tue, Jun 24 2025, 11:19 AM
Powell's prepared remarks and Q&A at today's congressional testimony are showing the market a clearer path to the possibility of rate cuts in the near...
Mon, Jun 23 2025, 4:18 PM
Best Closing Levels in More Than a Month
Don't look now, but rates just inched their way down to the best le...
Mon, Jun 23 2025, 3:12 PM
Mortgage rates ended the previous week roughly in line with the best levels since May 1st. Today's modest improvement made it official. Mortgage ra...
Mon, Jun 23 2025, 11:55 AM
For many, business is slow out there, and the industry waits for the House vote on the abusive trigger lead bill. Depository banks continue to focus o...
Mon, Jun 23 2025, 11:23 AM
A vast majority of long-time bond watchers share the same general understanding of how war impacts rates. Specifically, the increased global economic ...
Fri, Jun 20 2025, 5:00 PM
Underwhelming (But Friendly) Conclusion
The present week didn't manage to offer nearly as much excitement as...
Fri, Jun 20 2025, 2:08 PM
The latest Residential Construction report from the Census Bureau showed a noticeable drop in overall housing starts in May, though single-family acti...
Fri, Jun 20 2025, 1:32 PM
Mortgage application activity declined modestly last week despite a drop in rates, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest survey...
Fri, Jun 20 2025, 1:23 PM
Builder sentiment declined for the second straight month according to the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo's latest Housing...
Fri, Jun 20 2025, 1:07 PM
With Thursday being a federal holiday, banks (and more importantly, the underlying market for mortgage related bonds) were closed. This means that le...
Fri, Jun 20 2025, 11:42 AM
Happy Summer Solstice, and happy 50th birthday to the movie Jaws. Back then, for security, all we had to remember was where we hid our house key, or t...
Fri, Jun 20 2025, 11:00 AM
Much like the Friday after Thanksgiving, we have to wonder what the point is of a trading session without any neighbors (there's actually some guiding...
Wed, Jun 18 2025, 4:57 PM
Fed Threads Needle of Apathy
Today marked one of only 4 days of the year with an updated Fed dot plot. When ...
Wed, Jun 18 2025, 4:17 PM
It happens, but it's rare. A Fed "dot plot" day has come and gone with mortgage rates almost perfectly unchanged from the previous day. This speaks to...
Wed, Jun 18 2025, 2:00 PM
Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The u...
Wed, Jun 18 2025, 11:53 AM
Today we hear from the U.S. Federal Reserve. We can expect no change to overnight fed funds. As pointed yesterday by Dr. Paul Brewbaker, the economist...
Wed, Jun 18 2025, 10:47 AM
Fed day is here and there's a 0% chance of a rate cut. That's been the case for just over a month due a combination of April's jobs report and the st...
Tue, Jun 17 2025, 4:31 PM
Dot Plot in Focus With Fed's "No Cut" Announcement
Bonds lost some ground after this morning's economic data...
