Today, 12:33 PM
Mortgage application activity pulled back last week as higher borrowing costs weighed on both home purchase and refinance demand. The Mortgage Bankers...
Today, 11:49 AM
I am no numerologist, but Freddie Mac’s announcement yesterday, that 30-year mortgage rates are averaging 6.66, caught my attention. Unlike rumors, li...
Today, 9:09 AM
Japan's Ministry of Finance (MOF) and central bank (BOJ) are a bit more closely linked than Treasury and the Fed. For example, the MOF can instruct th...
Thu, Jul 30 2026, 4:14 PM
Bullets Dodged
We've seen our fair share of bonds punishing the market on occasions where bond traders were ...
Thu, Jul 30 2026, 2:52 PM
It's not at all uncommon for mortgage rates to experience microscopic movement in either direction on any given day. In fact, it's probably the most c...
Thu, Jul 30 2026, 11:56 AM
I was recently doing some bike riding in the Napa Valley and spent some time speaking with a wine maker. She told me that because of the increase in t...
Thu, Jul 30 2026, 9:40 AM
This morning could have been much worse. The bond market could have continued spiraling on fear that it is now responsible for conducting monetary pol...
Wed, Jul 29 2026, 5:47 PM
What's Up With Today's Paradoxical Fed Reaction?
Tough day for the casual observer to try to make sense of w...
Wed, Jul 29 2026, 3:53 PM
Heading into today's Fed announcement, futures markets indicated roughly a 1 in 3 chance that the Fed would hike rates. They did not. This seems like ...
Wed, Jul 29 2026, 2:00 PM
The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 9 – 0 3 vote: The Committee decided to maintain the ta...
Wed, Jul 29 2026, 11:23 AM
“Technology is dominated by two types of people: Those who understand what they do not manage, and those who manage what they do not understand.” Even...
Wed, Jul 29 2026, 9:49 AM
The big news over the weekend was that the U.S. and Iran paused hostilities--something that led to 2 solid days of gains in the bond market. But in th...
Tue, Jul 28 2026, 4:04 PM
Giving Peace (And Bonds?) a Chance
Granted, it may be far less promising than some of the more conclusive he...
Tue, Jul 28 2026, 11:32 AM
Does innovation in lending always means building something new? MISMO’s President Brian Vieaux challenges that familiar assumption, instead, he argues...
Tue, Jul 28 2026, 9:28 AM
Once again, bond yields dropped in the overnight session in concert with lower oil prices. Today's iteration is less swift than yesterday's, but after...
Mon, Jul 27 2026, 4:15 PM
Compared to Oil, Yields Not Quite as Willing to Drop
While the moment-to-moment correlation between bond yie...
Mon, Jul 27 2026, 2:44 PM
After bottoming out around 6.5% in late June, mortgage rates moved steadily higher this month, ultimately hitting 6.85% last Thursday--the highest lev...
Mon, Jul 27 2026, 11:45 AM
In 2025, the IMF reported that, across the globe, companies, households, and countries had amassed $251 trillion in debt. Looking toward the end of 20...
Mon, Jul 27 2026, 8:51 AM
It's a pretty simple morning for the bond market (and many other markets). While there's no formal ceasefire, both the U.S. and Iran have indicated a ...
Fri, Jul 24 2026, 3:38 PM
How Technical Do You Want to Be?
There are always multiple technical lenses through which to view market mov...
Fri, Jul 24 2026, 3:06 PM
If you're just tuning in, mortgage rates had a rough day yesterday on top of a rough week overall. The result was the highest 30yr fixed rate in over ...
Fri, Jul 24 2026, 1:17 PM
New home sales rebounded modestly in June, recovering some of the previous month's decline, though activity remained below year-ago levels as elevated...
Fri, Jul 24 2026, 1:04 PM
Mortgage application activity rebounded last week as stronger home purchase demand offset a modest decline in refinancing, even with borrowing costs c...
Fri, Jul 24 2026, 11:40 AM
Odds are, anything you buy was transported using diesel fuel, the price of which has shot up after Russia banned exports of it, impacting farmers, tra...
Fri, Jul 24 2026, 9:56 AM
It's a straightforward morning in the bond market. We're not seeing any of the sorts of "unseen hand" trading that accounted for the timing of yesterd...
Thu, Jul 23 2026, 4:55 PM
Bonds Not Keen To Catch Falling Knives
Oil lurched higher again overnight which kept generalized pressure on...
Thu, Jul 23 2026, 1:41 PM
Mortgage moved higher today, and while the jump was no larger than the one seen on Monday, both were 'above average' and both took rates in the wrong ...
Thu, Jul 23 2026, 11:28 AM
There are only twelve (12) legislative days left until the November election, and today on The Big Picture attorney Mitch Kider and I will discuss wha...
Thu, Jul 23 2026, 9:23 AM
Welcome to post-Iran-War 2026. The only real relief for bonds since then was seen in June when there was hope that the war was over or at least windin...
Wed, Jul 22 2026, 4:52 PM
Just Another Reasonably Bad Day For Bonds
Bonds had a bad day for the 3rd time this week. The weakness was r...
Wed, Jul 22 2026, 3:47 PM
We have bad news and slightly less bad news. Starting with the latter, today's mortgage rates are only marginally higher than they were yesterday with...
Wed, Jul 22 2026, 11:43 AM
There’s always something in the news, whether it is Jimothy the raccoon in the Northwest, or the Canadian wildfire smoke in the Northeast which coinci...
Wed, Jul 22 2026, 10:18 AM
For those not interested in overcomplicating things, it's fair enough to simply observe the resurgence of hostilities in the Iran war prompting a resu...
Tue, Jul 21 2026, 5:06 PM
Headwinds, Cont'd
"Headwinds, Cont'd" could be apply to the entirety of 2022-2026 or just March-July of 2026...
Tue, Jul 21 2026, 3:29 PM
In late July, 2025, 30yr fixed rates embarked on an excellent adventure, moving down from 6.75% on July 31st to 5.99% by late February, 2026. Since th...
Tue, Jul 21 2026, 11:49 AM
People who say that residential lending and the state or federal governments aren’t intertwined have to look no further than the CFPB. Their new offi...
Tue, Jul 21 2026, 9:26 AM
While last week's CPI and PPI reports were unabashedly great news, the bond market spent Friday and yesterday gradually unwinding most of the resultin...
Mon, Jul 20 2026, 3:53 PM
New Week. Same Old Story
While we certainly CAN put short term market movement under a microscope and entert...
Mon, Jul 20 2026, 3:10 PM
Last week ended on a promising note with Friday's rates falling just barely below the previous Friday's levels. This was a relief after the top-tier 3...
Mon, Jul 20 2026, 11:50 AM
Dang. I don’t know why I put my entire retirement plan into SpaceX stock… it has lost $1 trillion in book value since its post-IPO high. In 2026 Fanni...
Mon, Jul 20 2026, 10:12 AM
You've seen the "good vibes only" t-shirt perhaps? Bond traders left theirs at home this morning. That's unfortunate as there isn't much beyond vibes ...
Fri, Jul 17 2026, 4:35 PM
Roughly Unchanged After Gradual Weakness
Bonds ended the day roughly unchanged despite this morning's strong...
Fri, Jul 17 2026, 2:41 PM
The good news is that mortgage rates ended the day at their lowest levels of the week. That's welcome news after Monday's rates matched the highest se...
Fri, Jul 17 2026, 1:59 PM
Residential construction rebounded in June as housing starts and completions recovered from May's unusually weak levels, though building permits conti...
Fri, Jul 17 2026, 1:51 PM
Pending home sales declined in June as elevated mortgage rates and record-high home prices continued to weigh on buyer demand. The National Associatio...
Fri, Jul 17 2026, 1:40 PM
Builder sentiment weakened further in July as affordability challenges and ongoing economic uncertainty continued to weigh on the market for new singl...
Fri, Jul 17 2026, 1:31 PM
Mortgage application volume declined again last week as higher borrowing costs weighed on home purchase demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)...
Fri, Jul 17 2026, 11:44 AM
I was speaking with a friend recently, and I asked her what she does for lunch. She replied, “Zentangle.” Yup, it’s a thing, something that wasn’t aro...
Fri, Jul 17 2026, 9:35 AM
In a month where bonds have made a visible reconnection with fuel prices thanks to the Iran war resurgence, there have been several notable departures...
Thu, Jul 16 2026, 4:46 PM
Ultimately Uneventful Despite Modest Weakness
Bonds lost ground modestly today with the ultimate damage bein...
