Fri, Aug 15 2025, 3:30 PM
Weaker Conclusion But No Major Big Picture Implications
Despite much stronger revisions and a modestly stron...
Fri, Aug 15 2025, 2:17 PM
Friday proved to be the weakest day of the week for the underlying bond market and, thus, the highest day of the week for mortgage rates. Retail sales...
Fri, Aug 15 2025, 11:45 AM
“The difference between me and Superman is that he has super vision. I require supervision.” We’re halfway through the third quarter: Will your compan...
Fri, Aug 15 2025, 10:03 AM
Friday morning's highlight is the Retail Sales report which came in at a respectable 0.5 vs 0.5 headline. Core retail sales (excluding autos/gas/build...
Thu, Aug 14 2025, 2:27 PM
Bonds Hold The Range Despite More Data-Driven Volatility
At 0.9, not only did today's PPI crush the 0.2 fore...
Thu, Aug 14 2025, 1:08 PM
Mortgage rates hit fresh long term lows yesterday with the average top tier 30yr fixed rate at the best levels since October 3rd, 2024. There wasn't ...
Thu, Aug 14 2025, 11:42 AM
“I somehow managed to make it through high school math while only being able to remember even numbers. What are the odds?!” As the California MBA’s We...
Thu, Aug 14 2025, 10:58 AM
There's no question that today's Producer Price Index came in surprisingly hot. Both the headline and core numbers were 0.9% vs forecasts of 0.2%. Th...
Wed, Aug 13 2025, 4:19 PM
Data-Free Rally Day
Wednesday represented this week's lull in terms of scheduled market movers on the calend...
Wed, Aug 13 2025, 1:34 PM
October 3rd, 2024 continues to be the day to beat when it comes to mortgage rates hanging out at 10 month lows. Today's top tier 30yr fixed rate match...
Wed, Aug 13 2025, 11:42 AM
I received this note from Dallas. “I like ‘dillos, but I don’t support giving them guns because... I would never armadillo.” Speaking of which, Texas ...
Wed, Aug 13 2025, 9:51 AM
Mortgage application activity surged last week as sharply lower mortgage rates boosted refinance demand and gave purchase applications a modest lift. ...
Wed, Aug 13 2025, 9:40 AM
Bonds rallied overnight, largely in concert with lower EU yields. Stable inflation in Germany and lower oil prices helped. But there was also a tailwi...
Tue, Aug 12 2025, 4:33 PM
Bonds Eventually Pass on Decisive Reaction to Tuesday's Data
Right at the 8:30am release time, bonds rallied...
Tue, Aug 12 2025, 3:50 PM
Pundits, politicians, and everyone else can continue to assume that mortgage rates will respond to changes to the Fed Funds Rate. Meanwhile the bonds ...
Tue, Aug 12 2025, 11:46 AM
“Nothing refreshes my memory about what I need at the grocery store like coming home from the grocery store.” Remember adjustable-rate mortgages? Here...
Tue, Aug 12 2025, 9:20 AM
There's something for everyone in this morning's CPI data. The monthly headline was on target at 0.2 vs 0.2. Same story for the core at 0.3 vs 0.3. Bo...
Mon, Aug 11 2025, 3:35 PM
Bonds Mostly Steady Ahead of CPI
Treasuries outperformed MBS just slightly today, but both were close enough...
Mon, Aug 11 2025, 2:58 PM
The average top tier 30yr fixed rate held exceptionally steady last week after moving just a bit lower over the weekend. By comparison, today's rates ...
Mon, Aug 11 2025, 11:48 AM
About 25 miles to the north of the California MBA’s Western Secondary, a mobile robotic microfactory is building fire-resistant homes in Palisades Fir...
Mon, Aug 11 2025, 11:34 AM
July represents the core of the summertime lull in financial markets. June and August are typically part of the lull unless econ data is suggesting a...
Fri, Aug 8 2025, 3:25 PM
Focus Shifts to Next Week's High Stakes CPI
Bonds lost ground at the fastest pace of the week on Friday, but...
Fri, Aug 8 2025, 1:57 PM
Mortgage rates finally moved in a slightly more noticeable direction today, but the change was still inconsequential in the bigger picture. The averag...
Fri, Aug 8 2025, 1:16 PM
Mortgage application activity rebounded last week as falling rates boosted both purchase and refinance demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s week...
Fri, Aug 8 2025, 11:52 AM
People gearing up for the Western Secondary in Southern California see that “technology” is on the agenda. (Of course, it is always on every agenda, r...
Fri, Aug 8 2025, 11:00 AM
Any week in early August (before anyone is back to school yet) classifies a "dog days of summer" type of week for the bond market. Movement is more ra...
Thu, Aug 7 2025, 4:19 PM
Fairly Resilient Despite Bumpy Auction
The relevant morning econ data was limited to Jobless Claims. While t...
Thu, Aug 7 2025, 3:54 PM
Mortgage rates have barely budged after Monday with the day-over-day change failing to exceed 0.02% on any given day. But today's budging happened to ...
Thu, Aug 7 2025, 11:51 AM
We’re back traveling and packing for the plethora of conferences. Packing and intellect sometimes collide: for the life of me, I can’t seem to grasp t...
Thu, Aug 7 2025, 9:49 AM
The week's last hope for any signs of life from economic data has come and gone with this morning's Jobless Claims. To be fair, there was never reall...
Wed, Aug 6 2025, 4:26 PM
More Ground-Holding Despite Weird Intraday Spike
This morning's commentary led with our desire to avoid jinx...
Wed, Aug 6 2025, 3:31 PM
Although there were flashes of potential volatility in the underlying bond market at times today, mortgage rates made it through unscathed. In other ...
Wed, Aug 6 2025, 11:53 AM
As the MMLA event wrapped up in Michigan, a large number of people around the nation (and some from here) are gearing up to travel to (or within) Cali...
Wed, Aug 6 2025, 11:26 AM
We don't want to jinx it, but this is turning out to be an uncommonly calm week of trading compared to other post-jobs-report trading weeks. So far, ...
Tue, Aug 5 2025, 4:37 PM
Bonds Hold Steady After Modest Data-Driven Rally
Today's (and to be fair, this week's) only major econ data-...
Tue, Aug 5 2025, 3:50 PM
Yesterday saw the average 30yr fixed rate fall back in line with levels from early October, 2024. This happened for two reasons. The broader, underlyi...
Tue, Aug 5 2025, 11:48 AM
“An economist’s left leg is on fire, and his right leg is frozen. He says, ‘On average I'm perfectly fine.’” For those out there continuing to scratch...
Tue, Aug 5 2025, 10:43 AM
The ISM Services Index is/was easily this week's biggest ticket in terms of scheduled economic data. It was mostly OK for bonds with the growth-relate...
Mon, Aug 4 2025, 4:47 PM
Calmly Closing at Best Levels Since April
As far as post-NFP Mondays go, this was a calm one. Bonds never s...
Mon, Aug 4 2025, 4:09 PM
Mortgage rates are driven by movement in the bond market and bonds take cues from economic data, among other things. The monthly jobs report is routin...
Mon, Aug 4 2025, 11:54 AM
How can we be on the waning days of summer already? Didn’t the school year just end? Here in Central Michigan at the Michigan Mortgage Lenders confere...
Mon, Aug 4 2025, 11:26 AM
The new week is less interesting than the previous week in terms of scheduled events with the only top tier data being Tuesday's ISM Non Manufacturing...
Fri, Aug 1 2025, 5:07 PM
Bond Traders Quickly Revise Their Bullishness
"Revision" is the word of the day as every armchair economist ...
Fri, Aug 1 2025, 3:36 PM
Every month, we offer the same old warning/reminder ahead of the big jobs report--something to the effect of "no other economic report has as much pow...
Fri, Aug 1 2025, 3:28 PM
Mortgage application activity fell last week, reversing prior momentum and highlighting continued softness in both purchase and refinance demand. The ...
Fri, Aug 1 2025, 2:07 PM
The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)—which tracks contract signings on existing homes—has remained rangebound for mor...
Fri, Aug 1 2025, 1:48 PM
Both the FHFA and Case‑Shiller released the latest update on home price appreciation this week. Actually, in the current case, it's more like home pri...
Fri, Aug 1 2025, 11:59 AM
Non-farm payrolls came in at 73k vs 110k, which is a pretty good thing for the bond market in and of itself. But the bigger story is in the net revis...
Fri, Aug 1 2025, 11:48 AM
Soon I will head to Michigan. Isolationists beware: Federal records revealed by a Freedom of Information Act request have found that the government of...
Thu, Jul 31 2025, 4:47 PM
Month-End Volatility Erodes Modest Gains
Bonds were slightly stronger in the overnight session and this morn...
