Fri, Feb 14 2025, 11:53 AM
What a difference the past two mornings have made for a bond market that was seemingly on the ropes on Wednesday. After yesterday's paradoxical (thoug...
Thu, Feb 13 2025, 4:36 PM
What's Up With Today's Paradoxical Bond Rally?
PPI may not be as heavy a hitter as CPI on average, but one c...
Thu, Feb 13 2025, 3:21 PM
Mortgage rates jumped quickly higher yesterday following the higher inflation reading in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Now today, rates have complet...
Thu, Feb 13 2025, 9:07 AM
This morning's econ data included weekly jobless claims, which came in roughly in line with forecasts, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) which was a ...
Wed, Feb 12 2025, 4:50 PM
CPI Came in HOT and Bonds Reacted Logically
There's remarkably little else to observe beyond this morning's ...
Wed, Feb 12 2025, 3:36 PM
Today's mortgage rate movement is very straightforward. Unfortunately, it's also marked by a straight line toward higher levels--in this case, the hi...
Wed, Feb 12 2025, 11:25 AM
We know that bonds take a majority of their economic data cues from two reports: NFP and CPI. We knew that today's CPI was critically important in com...
Tue, Feb 11 2025, 3:59 PM
What to Expect From Wednesday's Inflation Data
Bonds lost ground overnight in sympathy with European bonds. ...
Tue, Feb 11 2025, 3:14 PM
Any recap of financial news headlines will likely mention Fed Chair Powell's congressional testimony today. Some efforts could even be made to link t...
Tue, Feb 11 2025, 11:10 AM
With Tokyo closed for a holiday, overnight Treasury trading was limited to futures markets until 2am ET. Yields opened about 1bp higher in Europe and...
Mon, Feb 10 2025, 4:21 PM
Little Changed After Early Rally and Steady Selling
Monday ended up being a relative non-event for the bond ...
Mon, Feb 10 2025, 3:24 PM
Mortgage rates have been on a vacation from volatility since January 16th when they fell back toward 7% after hitting the highest levels since May 202...
Mon, Feb 10 2025, 12:02 PM
Perhaps the most notable market-related headline over the weekend was Trump's pre-announcement of 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum (in addition to ex...
Fri, Feb 7 2025, 3:00 PM
Minimal Selling Leaves Focus on CPI
The first order of business this morning was to reconcile the weaker NFP...
Fri, Feb 7 2025, 12:55 PM
Friday brought the release of the big jobs report which is historically more likely than any other monthly economic report to cause the biggest pops o...
Fri, Feb 7 2025, 10:15 AM
As always, the jobs report matters. Today, we're seeing an obvious reaction to a fairly minimal miss (143k vs 170k f'cast in the headline job count). ...
Thu, Feb 6 2025, 3:20 PM
Yesterday was notable for being the first day in more than a week to offer any excitement for rates. More notably, that excitement was the good kind....
Thu, Feb 6 2025, 9:42 AM
Coming off yesterday's solid rally, the bond market underwent a modest correction in the overnight session. Most of the gains remain intact, but the ...
Wed, Feb 5 2025, 4:03 PM
Nice Win For Bonds With Help From Data
There are plenty of moving pieces at the moment when it comes to assi...
Wed, Feb 5 2025, 2:55 PM
The recent absence of volatility in day-to-day mortgage rate movement has been an easy target for light-hearted indignation among market watchers. Bu...
Wed, Feb 5 2025, 10:40 AM
To say the very least, there are more moving pieces to consider at the moment when it comes to the narrative guiding volatility and momentum in the bo...
Tue, Feb 4 2025, 4:39 PM
Bonds Rally Back to Prevailing Range
The only moderately inconvenient part of the day was the morning hours ...
Tue, Feb 4 2025, 4:26 PM
If you like your mortgage rate movement boring and minimal, this week's for you (and last week, and the week before that). Going all the way back to ...
Tue, Feb 4 2025, 10:32 AM
Bonds initially drifted into slightly weaker territory in the overnight session, but began bouncing back just after 9am ET. All this in spite of a qu...
Mon, Feb 3 2025, 4:21 PM
In-Range Volatility on Tariff Headlines, But Broadly Sideways
If you are following along with intraday marke...
Mon, Feb 3 2025, 4:10 PM
We know that mortgage rates are driven by financial markets and we know that financial markets have experienced volatility amid the roll-out of new ta...
Mon, Feb 3 2025, 10:45 AM
As we discussed heading into the weekend (and the likely official tariff announcement), the only recent, conclusive track record the market has for ta...
Fri, Jan 31 2025, 5:01 PM
Reasonably Reserved Reaction to Tariff Headlines
If you were just watching headlines and making note of MBS ...
Fri, Jan 31 2025, 4:33 PM
For all of the news that seems to be highly likely to cause volatility for rates, the market reaction ended up playing out on a very small scale. The ...
Fri, Jan 31 2025, 12:16 PM
This morning's PCE inflation data was in line with expectations with the annual core PCE price index coming in at 2.8% and the monthly core coming in ...
Thu, Jan 30 2025, 4:41 PM
Solid Showing In Spite of Data and Uncertainty
The relevance of economic data increased this morning with th...
Thu, Jan 30 2025, 4:08 PM
Interest rates are driven by the bond market and bonds are at their best levels in over a month. As such, it's no surprise that mortgage rates are abl...
Thu, Jan 30 2025, 12:09 PM
Bonds rallied in overnight trading. The move was exceptionally linear, without any obvious regard for movement in equities or European bonds. Yields w...
Wed, Jan 29 2025, 4:26 PM
Uneventful Fed Day, Bonds Eventually Agree
There's never a way to know with certainty that a Fed announcemen...
Wed, Jan 29 2025, 3:47 PM
Heading into today's Fed announcement, we didn't expect to receive any significant surprise on the stance of monetary policy. Financial markets had l...
Wed, Jan 29 2025, 2:01 PM
What follows is a comparison between today's newly released Fed announcement and the previous announcement. Additions are blue/underlined. Subtractio...
Wed, Jan 29 2025, 12:12 PM
Bonds began the day in slightly stronger territory but have pulled back as we head into the noon hour. If we put today's movement under a microscope,...
Tue, Jan 28 2025, 4:23 PM
Not Expecting Fireworks From The Fed
Bonds had a mixed reaction to this morning's Durable Goods data with st...
Tue, Jan 28 2025, 3:07 PM
The average mortgage lender remained right in line with yesterday's levels despite a bit of weakness in the bond market. Lenders who improved their r...
Tue, Jan 28 2025, 9:02 AM
Bonds were weaker overnight as markets calmed down a bit after yesterday's DeepSeek frenzy. The 8:20am CME open brought in just a bit of buying, but ...
Mon, Jan 27 2025, 4:53 PM
Bonds Seek Lower Yields, But not Too Deeply Yet
On Friday night, a vast majority of market watchers had neve...
Mon, Jan 27 2025, 3:47 PM
There are two distinct patterns of behavior when it comes to rates interacting with stocks. The first could be called the "conventional wisdom" patte...
Mon, Jan 27 2025, 10:18 AM
NVDA has obviously been THE biggest driver of prevailing bull market in stocks. In 2024, its market cap increased by just over 2 trillion dollars. Fol...
Fri, Jan 24 2025, 4:27 PM
Modest Gains Make For an Uneventful Week
If bonds had continued to sell off today, it would have made the we...
Fri, Jan 24 2025, 3:46 PM
While there were only 4 business days instead of the customary 5, it's been an intensely boring week for mortgage rates. Tuesday started out right wh...
Fri, Jan 24 2025, 12:03 PM
Due to the incredibly light calendar of economic data this week, this morning's combination of S&P PMI and Consumer Sentiment added up to the most con...
Thu, Jan 23 2025, 4:42 PM
Bonds Feeling Defensive Despite Trump's Demands For Lower Rates
Bonds lost ground this morning despite sligh...
Thu, Jan 23 2025, 3:39 PM
After several consecutive days without any noticeable changes, mortgage rates finally made a move today. Unfortunately, that move was higher. Thankfu...
Thu, Jan 23 2025, 10:45 AM
Yesterday's recap began by calling attention to the "extreme dearth of big ticket economic data" this week. Thursday AM brought the weekly jobless cl...
Wed, Jan 22 2025, 4:06 PM
Absence of Data Leaves Focus on Technicals and the Waiting Game
The extreme dearth of big ticket economic da...
