Mon, Dec 30 2024, 3:56 PM
Feel Free to Enjoy The Rally, But Don't Read Too Much Into It
Bonds improved somewhat significantly in overn...
Mon, Dec 30 2024, 3:31 PM
Because mortgage rates are determined by trading levels in the bond market, when the market is closed, lenders don't update their rate offerings. As ...
Mon, Dec 30 2024, 10:49 AM
Stop the presses! MBS are up almost 3/8ths of a point in early trading and 10yr yields have surged lower by 8bps. This is a massive and miraculous r...
Fri, Dec 27 2024, 4:57 PM
Weaker Afternoon, But Still Uneventful
Bonds began the day in decent shape by pushing back against weakness ...
Fri, Dec 27 2024, 4:16 PM
Mortgage rates didn't move much today, and markets have been very quiet due to the holiday week. So we'll take a quick moment for a retrospective. I...
Fri, Dec 27 2024, 9:31 AM
Not that any of this week's trading activity matters in the bigger picture, but things have been reasonably resilient after Monday's selling. Tuesday...
Thu, Dec 26 2024, 4:32 PM
Friendly Reversal Thanks to 7yr Treasury Auction
The day began as so many days over the past few months with...
Thu, Dec 26 2024, 3:51 PM
Mortgage rates are based on trading levels in the bond market and bond market activity has been extremely slow, as is normally the case during the Chr...
Thu, Dec 26 2024, 9:15 AM
Bonds are back in the office for a few days, at least in the sense that there are no holiday scheduled changes, and they've wasted no time getting rig...
Tue, Dec 24 2024, 10:11 AM
Bonds are selling off for no obvious reasons for however many days in a row it's been (at least 2 unless you count last Thursday). Episodes like this ...
Mon, Dec 23 2024, 4:01 PM
Steady Selling in Bonds. 'Tis The Season?
Bonds began the day in weaker territory and continued to sell off ...
Mon, Dec 23 2024, 3:36 PM
Holidays have inconsistent impacts on mortgage rates because holiday's have inconsistent impacts on the bond market (and rates are dictated by the bon...
Mon, Dec 23 2024, 12:30 PM
The most interesting analysis we can offer today is a simple reminder that the word "idiosyncrasy" has an "S" at the end instead of the "C" that we're...
Fri, Dec 20 2024, 4:44 PM
Not as Bad as it Could Have Been
After Wednesday's Fed-driven sell-off, it was unlikely if not impossible th...
Fri, Dec 20 2024, 4:11 PM
The week's big story is still the big jump in rates that took place after Wednesday's Fed announcement. And while rates remain noticeably elevated on...
Fri, Dec 20 2024, 9:54 AM
This week's biggest to-do in terms of economic reports was this morning's PCE inflation data. The fact that the Fed just said it was shifting its pri...
Thu, Dec 19 2024, 4:30 PM
Fairly Uneventful Follow-Up to Fed Day
Considering everything that transpired yesterday, today's follow-up w...
Thu, Dec 19 2024, 3:50 PM
We received some anonymous feedback regarding recent rate commentary that serves as a good reminder that not everyone may be picking up what we're put...
Thu, Dec 19 2024, 10:29 AM
The takeaway from yesterday's Fed announcement was twofold. First, the Fed is much closer to being done cutting rates than it anticipated in Septembe...
Wed, Dec 18 2024, 5:07 PM
Dots and Powell Were Much Less Friendly Than Markets Expected
We knew the bond market was expecting a hawkis...
Wed, Dec 18 2024, 4:19 PM
If anyone needed any further convincing that a Fed rate cut is no guarantee of lower mortgage rates, today is a great piece of evidence. Perhaps "gre...
Wed, Dec 18 2024, 2:01 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Since earlier in the year, labor market conditions have gene...
Wed, Dec 18 2024, 11:31 AM
Bonds were moderately weaker overnight but have been pushing back in fits and starts in early trading. This has been a more uneven process for MBS as...
Tue, Dec 17 2024, 3:58 PM
Calm and Resilient as Bonds Wait For Powell and The Dot Plot
Whereas last week saw the bond market continue ...
Tue, Dec 17 2024, 3:36 PM
Mortgage rates have been having a much calmer week compared to last week. Monday brought a modest decline versus last Friday and today's rates are ef...
Tue, Dec 17 2024, 11:05 AM
Yesterday, it was S&P Global PMI data. Today it's Retail Sales. Both were stronger than expected. Both failed to cause any lasting weakness in bond...
Mon, Dec 16 2024, 4:22 PM
Bonds Hold Ground Despite Unfriendly Econ Data
If there was a prime directive for the bond market last week,...
Mon, Dec 16 2024, 3:56 PM
Last week wasn't great for mortgage rates. They moved higher on each of the 5 days. Moreover, there was a distinct lack of logical motivation from t...
Mon, Dec 16 2024, 12:26 PM
Bonds were modestly stronger in the overnight session, and although domestic traders quickly erased the gains in the AM hours, the selling is currentl...
Fri, Dec 13 2024, 4:55 PM
Why So Much Selling in Bonds?
Without a doubt, it's been a frustrating and puzzling week for the bond market...
Fri, Dec 13 2024, 3:13 PM
There's no easy way to say it: it was a bad week for mortgage rates. Actually, it was a bad week for interest rates in general and mortgage rates typ...
Fri, Dec 13 2024, 11:42 AM
Bonds can't seem to catch a break this week. Data hasn't necessarily been unfriendly either with both CPI and PPI hitting forecasts at the core month...
Thu, Dec 12 2024, 4:36 PM
Mediocre Data Has Done Nothing to Help Bonds
Granted, this week's slate of economic data isn't on quite the ...
Thu, Dec 12 2024, 4:08 PM
It's been a bummer of a week for mortgage rates with modest to moderate increases every day so far. Adding insult to injury is the fact that there ha...
Thu, Dec 12 2024, 10:28 AM
This morning's Producer Price Index (PPI) came in hotter than expected in year-over-year terms (3.4 vs 3.2 at the core level). Traders were mostly abl...
Wed, Dec 11 2024, 4:16 PM
Why Bonds Sold Off After a Decent AM Rally
It was a day for "explanations" in the bond market with the morni...
Wed, Dec 11 2024, 3:32 PM
Mortgage rates were having a pretty decent day at first. The bond market was only slightly weaker overnight (implies some upward pressure on rates), ...
Wed, Dec 11 2024, 10:52 AM
Today's headline and core CPI readings were both perfectly in line with forecasts. After the data came out, bonds rallied and Fed Funds Futures moved...
Tue, Dec 10 2024, 4:13 PM
Ready For Anything After Pre-CPI Consolidation
Bonds were arguably consolidating ahead of last Friday's jobs...
Tue, Dec 10 2024, 3:34 PM
Between November 18th and December 6th, the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate moved down from 7.08 to 6.68. A 0.40% drop is rather significan...
Tue, Dec 10 2024, 10:40 AM
Yesterday's closing commentary also noted "inconsequential weakness," and there's not really a better way to refer to this morning's modest losses. O...
Mon, Dec 9 2024, 5:02 PM
Inconsequential Weakness
Bonds lost a moderate amount of ground on Monday with 10yr yields moving back above...
Mon, Dec 9 2024, 4:26 PM
Mortgage rates ended last week with an impressive drop to the lowest levels in more than a month and a half. Today's rates ended up being the 2nd low...
Mon, Dec 9 2024, 10:38 AM
Up until last Friday, 10yr yields closed at 4.17% for 5 days in a row. While that's technically "resistance," we're not complaining considering that's...
Fri, Dec 6 2024, 4:57 PM
Solid Conclusion to a Solid Week. Has The Tide Turned?
After Thanksgiving week introduced a potential breako...
Fri, Dec 6 2024, 4:29 PM
As of last week, rates were showing some signs of resilience, but they had to wait for the true test from this week's jobs report. Spoiler alert: they...
Fri, Dec 6 2024, 9:52 AM
We all know that today's jobs report is the most important economic data on an given month. We also know that a higher payroll count tends to be bad f...
Thu, Dec 5 2024, 4:10 PM
Calm Week So Far, But All Bets Are Off After Jobs Report
Bonds were slightly weaker overnight and did just a...
Thu, Dec 5 2024, 3:58 PM
It's been a remarkably calm week for mortgage rates, and a fairly decent one relative to several recent examples. The average top tier 30yr fixed rat...
Thu, Dec 5 2024, 8:46 AM
Jobless Claims
224k vs 215k f'cast, 213k prev
Continued Claims
1871k vs 1910k f'cast, 1896k prev
At first glance, the 224k figure...
