Fri, Jun 20 2025, 1:07 PM
With Thursday being a federal holiday, banks (and more importantly, the underlying market for mortgage related bonds) were closed. This means that le...
Fri, Jun 20 2025, 11:00 AM
Much like the Friday after Thanksgiving, we have to wonder what the point is of a trading session without any neighbors (there's actually some guiding...
Wed, Jun 18 2025, 4:57 PM
Fed Threads Needle of Apathy
Today marked one of only 4 days of the year with an updated Fed dot plot. When ...
Wed, Jun 18 2025, 4:17 PM
It happens, but it's rare. A Fed "dot plot" day has come and gone with mortgage rates almost perfectly unchanged from the previous day. This speaks to...
Wed, Jun 18 2025, 2:00 PM
Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The u...
Wed, Jun 18 2025, 10:47 AM
Fed day is here and there's a 0% chance of a rate cut. That's been the case for just over a month due a combination of April's jobs report and the st...
Tue, Jun 17 2025, 4:31 PM
Dot Plot in Focus With Fed's "No Cut" Announcement
Bonds lost some ground after this morning's economic data...
Tue, Jun 17 2025, 3:19 PM
Mortgage rates continue operating in a narrow range with almost every day of the past two months falling between 6.8 and 7.0% for a top tier 30yr fixe...
Tue, Jun 17 2025, 10:53 AM
Bonds were decently stronger in the overnight session, but not for any new, specific reasons. Trading levels have been cutting an increasingly narrow...
Mon, Jun 16 2025, 4:15 PM
Token Weakness Without a Cause
Sometimes bonds rally or sell-off for no apparent reason, or at least for no ...
Mon, Jun 16 2025, 3:53 PM
While there's been no shortage of political and geopolitical headlines over the past 2 business days, there hasn't been much by way of inspiration for...
Mon, Jun 16 2025, 10:25 AM
After rallying fairly well last Wednesday and Thursday, bonds pulled back on Friday, but not enough to erase more than half of the week's gains. The n...
Fri, Jun 13 2025, 3:32 PM
Not Reading Too Much Into Friday's Weakness
At first glance, with only one report on the calendar, it's only...
Fri, Jun 13 2025, 3:11 PM
The top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate index rose 0.04% on Friday, which would be a medium-sized defeat in and of itself. In the broader context, howev...
Fri, Jun 13 2025, 9:53 AM
By 8pm last night, news of Israel's attack on Iran erased an entire week of stock market gains and pushed bond yields to the lowest levels in more tha...
Thu, Jun 12 2025, 4:13 PM
Thursday's Data Offered No Objection to Overnight Rally
Thursday's PPI was just as tame as Wednesday's CPI a...
Thu, Jun 12 2025, 3:50 PM
Mortgage rates being offered today are only a hair lower for the average lender than they were on June 4th, but June 4th was the best day since early ...
Thu, Jun 12 2025, 10:02 AM
This morning's PPI did its best impression of yesterday's CPI with the core monthly number coming in at 0.1 vs 0.3 forecast. In yesterday's case, this...
Wed, Jun 11 2025, 4:19 PM
Nice Rally on Data and Auction Results
Wednesday ended up being a straightforward session for bonds with a l...
Wed, Jun 11 2025, 3:48 PM
After a calm start to the week on Monday and Tuesday, we were likely to see a bit more volatility on Wednesday due to important events on the calendar...
Wed, Jun 11 2025, 9:53 AM
Heading into today's CPI data, our stance was that we'd need to see the monthly core number come in at 0.1 vs 0.3 in order to see much of a friendly r...
Tue, Jun 10 2025, 3:49 PM
No Drama Today. How About Tomorrow?
After a slightly bumpy start for reasons that remain unknown, the bond m...
Tue, Jun 10 2025, 3:37 PM
It was a fairly boring day on what has turned out to be a fairly boring week so far for mortgage rates. After Friday's larger spike, we've seen a mic...
Tue, Jun 10 2025, 10:46 AM
Although bonds are experiencing a small amount of volatility this morning, it isn't consequential in the bigger picture. Quick-but-modest weakness at...
Mon, Jun 9 2025, 3:56 PM
Gentle Rally Gently Reverses After Trade Headlines
First thing's first: bonds closed in stronger territory a...
Mon, Jun 9 2025, 3:38 PM
As hoped, Friday's big rate spike did not carry additional momentum into the new week. This is occasionally a risk when rates are responding to big s...
Mon, Jun 9 2025, 10:12 AM
Overnight and early-session trading confirm the bond market is shifting gears and re-entering a sort of cruise control in the prevailing range. Had la...
Fri, Jun 6 2025, 5:02 PM
Perfectly Logical Reaction to On-Target Data
It's not necessarily a fun fact to face, but today's bond marke...
Fri, Jun 6 2025, 3:13 PM
Mortgage rates have enjoyed a nice run since May 21st, with the MND Index (average top tier 30yr fixed scenarios) falling from a recent peak of 7.08% ...
Fri, Jun 6 2025, 11:30 AM
The bond market was likely taking a bit of a lead-off ahead of today's jobs report, inspired by a string of weaker economic data over the past week. ...
Thu, Jun 5 2025, 4:05 PM
Bonds Dial Back Ahead of Big Jobs Report
It was a fairly interesting day for bonds, relative to the calendar...
Thu, Jun 5 2025, 3:37 PM
Mortgage rates began the day perfectly in line with yesterday's latest levels for the average lender. By the afternoon, the underlying bond market had...
Thu, Jun 5 2025, 10:04 AM
Bonds began the morning in rally mode, even if not in an extreme way. Gains lasted for about 20 minutes before reversing. The shift was accompanied ...
Wed, Jun 4 2025, 5:28 PM
Big Bond Rally After ADP and ISM
We knew the onus was on weaker economic data to justify any decent drop in ...
Wed, Jun 4 2025, 4:32 PM
Whether or not today's drop in rates is meaningful depends on one's perspective, but in the context of recent rate movement, it's definitely noticeabl...
Wed, Jun 4 2025, 10:28 AM
It's been a fairly simple morning so far for the bond market. Both of the morning's key economic reports came in weaker than expected. In the case of ...
Tue, Jun 3 2025, 4:47 PM
JOLTS Data Didn't Help, But it Didn't Hurt Much Either
Bonds were moderately stronger overnight and then wea...
Tue, Jun 3 2025, 4:02 PM
Sometimes a Tuesday is just a Tuesday for mortgage rates. In the present week, any day is capable of generating some volatility due to one of several...
Tue, Jun 3 2025, 10:35 AM
First thing's first: the overnight rally was fairly modest with 10yr yields dropping about 3bps to 4.41 ahead of the domestic session. Given that the...
Mon, Jun 2 2025, 5:27 PM
New Month Selling Trumps ISM Data
It's not that this morning's ISM data failed to help the bond market. In f...
Mon, Jun 2 2025, 4:02 PM
Mortgage rates have been in an exceptionally narrow range since last Tuesday with the 30yr fixed index hovering just under 7%. The average lender is ...
Mon, Jun 2 2025, 10:51 AM
The ISM Manufacturing PMI has more potential than most economic reports to cause a reaction in the bond market, even if it isn't perfectly consistent....
Fri, May 30 2025, 4:19 PM
Strongest Close of the Week After Well-Contained Month-End Volatility
There was always a reasonably high bar...
Fri, May 30 2025, 3:28 PM
It has turned out to be a surprisingly calm week for mortgage rates and, as of today, largely a victorious one, even if the victories have been modest...
Fri, May 30 2025, 9:14 AM
Today's PCE Price Index is one of the two main consumer inflation reports put out by the US government. It's bigger and broader than CPI, but CPI com...
Thu, May 29 2025, 4:46 PM
Bonds Hold Morning Gains; No Reaction to Tariff Headlines
To be clear, markets reacted to tariff headlines y...
Thu, May 29 2025, 3:49 PM
There was a bit of behind-the-scenes volatility in the bond market today. Normally, bond volatility translates to interest rate volatility. In some c...
Thu, May 29 2025, 10:56 AM
We have a primer in the MBS Live knowledge base regarding the potential for overnight news and bond trading to give a completely different impression ...
Wed, May 28 2025, 4:51 PM
Minimal Movement Amid Absence of Data
It was ultimately a fairly uneventful session for bonds with the 5yr T...
Wed, May 28 2025, 4:13 PM
After moving moderately lower to start the new week yesterday, mortgage rates backtracked ever-so-slightly today. Top tier conventional 30yr fixed ra...
