Fri, Mar 6 2026, 3:24 PM
Before this morning's jobs report was released, mortgage rates were on track to end the week at their highest levels in several weeks. This was due to...
Fri, Mar 6 2026, 9:29 AM
It's shaping up to be a frustrating day market watchers. Decades of experience tells us that bonds should rally fairly sharply on a day where nonfarm ...
Thu, Mar 5 2026, 3:32 PM
Dueling Narrative Leave Yields Higher Ahead of Jobs Report
In the overnight session yields followed oil pric...
Thu, Mar 5 2026, 3:02 PM
Mortgage rates bounced back up today as the underlying bond market continued the selling trend seen on 3 out of 4 days so far this week. In the overni...
Thu, Mar 5 2026, 9:24 AM
The bond market has already shown an indifference to this week's econ data as a market mover (even though we expect that to change with tomorrow's job...
Wed, Mar 4 2026, 3:31 PM
Economic data is one of the few consistent sources of motivation for interest rates in the mortgage world and beyond. In general, stronger data tends ...
Wed, Mar 4 2026, 8:41 AM
After 2 days of much higher volatility at the open, bonds are roughly unchanged so far this morning and the overnight session was noticeably calmer. T...
Tue, Mar 3 2026, 4:36 PM
Bonds Erase Most of The AM Losses
The bond market was visibly pulled in two directions on Tuesday. This play...
Tue, Mar 3 2026, 3:21 PM
After spending the entirety of last week calmy holding the lowest levels in more than 3 years, mortgage rates jumped sharply higher yesterday. That sa...
Tue, Mar 3 2026, 9:47 AM
Bonds sold off again overnight with 10yr yields now challenging the 4.10% technical level in early trading. MBS are down another 3/8ths, roughly. And ...
Mon, Mar 2 2026, 3:41 PM
Big Bad Day For Bonds. What's Next?
Bonds sold off early and aggressively on Monday in a move that most onlo...
Mon, Mar 2 2026, 3:19 PM
Mortgage rates began the new week with a fairly quick jump back into the low 6% range (top tier 30yr fixed rate for the average lender). With the news...
Mon, Mar 2 2026, 9:33 AM
Spoiler alert: it's not Iran. And this morning's yields are the 2nd lowest in more than 3 months behind last Friday. Last Friday was also a month-end ...
Fri, Feb 27 2026, 4:24 PM
Bonds Cap Stellar Week/Month With Strongest Close
Bonds ended the week/month at their strongest levels with ...
Fri, Feb 27 2026, 1:56 PM
At this point, it is getting a bit repetitive to bring up "the lowest rates in more than 3 years"--something that was officially the case twice this w...
Fri, Feb 27 2026, 9:29 AM
We'd already discussed the fact that PPI has fallen by the wayside as a relevant market mover for bonds despite one or two instances of relevance near...
Thu, Feb 26 2026, 4:16 PM
Knock Knock Knockin' on 10yr Floor
Sometimes, it's a shame that the 7yr Treasury isn't the most popular bond...
Thu, Feb 26 2026, 3:42 PM
Given that we have the somewhat unpopular job of reporting that today's average top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate is 6.00 again, rather than the 5.99 ...
Thu, Feb 26 2026, 10:37 AM
This is the problem with narrow trading ranges. Yesterday, yields were safely inside a narrow range near long-term lows. Today, they're challenging th...
Wed, Feb 25 2026, 4:45 PM
In-Range PM Weakness
Viewed under a microscope, it may have seemed like today was a relatively volatile sess...
Wed, Feb 25 2026, 3:37 PM
It may not be as glamorous as being able to say mortgage rates are "in the 5s," but at 6.00%, today's MND rate index is a mere 0.01% higher than yeste...
Wed, Feb 25 2026, 9:42 AM
Some days, there's a lot to say about what's going on in the bond market. Other days are like today. Analysts have to lean on themes like trading rang...
Tue, Feb 24 2026, 4:15 PM
Calmly Holding in Super Strong Territory
MBS may not be quite as high as they were yesterday, but in the big...
Tue, Feb 24 2026, 3:53 PM
The average top-tier mortgage rates made it back to 5.99% yesterday for the first time since January 9th and only the second time in more than 3 years...
Tue, Feb 24 2026, 9:31 AM
Volume and volatility is lower this morning compared to yesterday, but the same theme of risk aversion looks to be in play, probably. Why "probably?"...
Mon, Feb 23 2026, 3:09 PM
General Risk Aversion Trade Helping Bonds
Bonds began the day in just barely stronger territory but continue...
Mon, Feb 23 2026, 11:53 AM
This coverage is coming out earlier than normal due to a more interesting headline than normal. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate fell back to 5.99...
Mon, Feb 23 2026, 10:51 AM
Bonds are starting the new week in slightly stronger territory, but still well inside the prevailing trading range. There were no standout market move...
Fri, Feb 20 2026, 4:44 PM
Tariff Ruling Tried (And Failed) to Steal The Show
If you were told ahead of time that Friday morning would ...
Fri, Feb 20 2026, 3:18 PM
Bonds dictate mortgage rates and bonds experienced a bit of volatility this morning in response to the Supreme Court ruling on tariffs. The initial im...
Fri, Feb 20 2026, 9:25 AM
At the time of this writing, there are still a few econ reports left on deck, but the big ones are out. GDP missed big (1.4 vs 3.0), but largely for n...
Thu, Feb 19 2026, 4:36 PM
Bonds Punt. Focus Turns to Friday's Econ Data
Bonds spent the past 2 days pushing back toward slightly highe...
Thu, Feb 19 2026, 3:33 PM
For the average lender, top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rates were perfectly unchanged compared to yesterday. This keeps them right in line with the lowe...
Thu, Feb 19 2026, 8:53 AM
Yesterday's end-of-day recap bore the title "Half-Hearted Correction Continues." It turns out that should have been the title for this morning's comme...
Wed, Feb 18 2026, 4:22 PM
Half-Hearted Correction Continues
Don't call it a correction. Yields may have rallied 30bps in just over a ...
Wed, Feb 18 2026, 3:11 PM
Mortgage rates at the average lender moved up by 0.01% today--the smallest increment measured by the MND daily rate index. This means that most borrow...
Wed, Feb 18 2026, 11:06 AM
Any time the 10yr Treasury yield approaches--but fails to break--a number ending in .50 or .00, the analytical community is guaranteed to be discussin...
Tue, Feb 17 2026, 4:27 PM
Calm Start Even if Modestly Weaker
The day before and/or after a 3-day weekend is more volatile than the ave...
Tue, Feb 17 2026, 4:08 PM
It was an uneventful day for mortgage rates with the average lender holding right in line with last Friday's levels. In this case, that's a good thing...
Tue, Feb 17 2026, 11:25 AM
At the start of the domestic session, bonds had actually managed to build on last week's impressive gains, even if only by a few bps. That was a bit o...
Fri, Feb 13 2026, 4:13 PM
Bonds Close Out Epic Week of Resilience With Friendly Data
Friday was a logically friendly day thanks to sli...
Fri, Feb 13 2026, 2:07 PM
When the administration announced that Fannie and Freddie would be buying mortgage-backed securities in early January, rates fell sharply to the lowes...
Fri, Feb 13 2026, 9:55 AM
CPI came in just a hair below forecasts at the headline level and right in line with forecasts at the core level (unrounded .295 vs .300). Shelter com...
Thu, Feb 12 2026, 4:16 PM
Yields Magically and Mysteriously Sink to Lowest Levels in 2 Months.
At the 3pm CME close, 10yr yields were ...
Thu, Feb 12 2026, 2:35 PM
Just one day after an incredibly strong jobs report--something that would normally create problematic upward momentum for rates--the average lender is...
Thu, Feb 12 2026, 9:07 AM
When the jobs report makes a big statement, bonds are more likely to exhibit elevated momentum and volatility in the following days. In more than a fe...
Wed, Feb 11 2026, 4:09 PM
Stunning Resilience
One could argue that our bar is set too low if we view today's bond market resilience as...
Wed, Feb 11 2026, 2:26 PM
Mortgage rates moved 0.03% higher today. On almost any other day, this would be a bit of a bummer, but in today's case, it's a victory. There was a t...
Wed, Feb 11 2026, 9:48 AM
Nearly an hour after this morning's surprisingly strong jobs report, 10yr yields are only 4.4bps higher at 4.19%. On a normal day, 4.4bps might be a f...
Tue, Feb 10 2026, 3:39 PM
Best Levels in Weeks Ahead of High Stakes Jobs Report
Rather than circle the wagons and consolidate the rece...
