Wed, May 20 2026, 4:19 PM
Full Reversal And Then Some
Bonds more than made up from Tuesday's rout with a massive rally on Wednesday. U...
Wed, May 20 2026, 2:58 PM
Wednesday brought some much-needed relief for the mortgage market after rates surged to new 9 month highs of 6.75% yesterday. Whereas that rate spike ...
Wed, May 20 2026, 10:24 AM
Tuesday's massive wave of bond-specific weakness still has the analytical community scratching its collective head. Our contacts are either saying not...
Tue, May 19 2026, 4:57 PM
Whales Making Waves in Treasury Futures
Nerd alert: there's no way to discuss what happened in the bond mark...
Tue, May 19 2026, 3:28 PM
It was another rough day for the bond market and, thus, for interest rates. Investors aggressively sold bonds in the first 2 hours of trading, taking ...
Tue, May 19 2026, 9:40 AM
Ever since the initial 2 week ceasefire was announced in the Iran war, the bond market has adhered to trend channels that align with either de-escalat...
Mon, May 18 2026, 4:18 PM
Bombarded by Headlines, But Little-Changed
Monday's trading session ended up being an exercise in headline-w...
Mon, May 18 2026, 3:34 PM
Mortgage rates hit their highest levels in more than 9 months at the end of last week. Now today, they've edged slightly higher yet again with the ave...
Mon, May 18 2026, 10:36 AM
Bonds began the overnight session by drifting somewhat higher in yield. The 10yr hit 4.63 before recovering modestly just before domestic trading bega...
Fri, May 15 2026, 5:12 PM
Bonds Continued Drifting Weaker Throughout The Day
Nothing new or interesting happened during the course of ...
Fri, May 15 2026, 12:40 PM
Mortgage rates are driven by bonds and the bond market hoped to see more evidence of shift toward peace during the 2-day Trump/Xi meeting in China. As...
Fri, May 15 2026, 9:19 AM
Far too many market participants were apparently hoping that some sort of positive news on the war would be somehow facilitated by the Trump/Xi summit...
Thu, May 14 2026, 4:22 PM
Rally Reverses, Leaving Bonds Weaker in The Afternoon
The day began with promise, but devolved into yet anot...
Thu, May 14 2026, 3:20 PM
May continues to be a more volatile month than the bulk of April when it comes to day over day mortgage rate movement. While the average day has seen ...
Thu, May 14 2026, 9:46 AM
A recovery toward lower oil prices paved the way for the bond market to recover yesterday morning's weakness and the same theme continued in the overn...
Wed, May 13 2026, 3:38 PM
MBS Fully Recover After Initial Reaction to Inflation Data
There's no question that this morning's PPI data ...
Wed, May 13 2026, 2:58 PM
Mortgage rates rose somewhat sharply yesterday to match the highest level since March 27th. They're just a hair higher today, thus officially at 6-wee...
Wed, May 13 2026, 10:21 AM
The Producer Price Index (PPI) is much more volatile and, on average, much less of a market mover than the Consumer Price Index (CPI), but occasionall...
Tue, May 12 2026, 4:06 PM
Highest Yields in 10 Months on War Headlines and Auction Concessions
Because CPI came out slightly higher to...
Tue, May 12 2026, 3:28 PM
When the Iran war was in its initial escalation phase, the initial surge in markets took the top-tier 30yr fixed rate to 6.64% for the average lender ...
Tue, May 12 2026, 9:29 AM
This morning's Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in slightly hotter than expected with core inflation running 2.8% annual vs 2.7% forecasts and overall ...
Mon, May 11 2026, 3:50 PM
Over Before it Began
Monday proved to be a boring trading day despite the moderately big sell-off. Yields ac...
Mon, May 11 2026, 3:30 PM
Last week was decidedly stronger for mortgage rates as they either held steady or moved lower on 5 out of 5 days. All told, it was a 0.14% drop from t...
Mon, May 11 2026, 11:28 AM
Bonds are starting the day moderately weaker. The reasons are straightforward. Chief among them, Trump rejected Iran's counterproposal to end the war,...
Fri, May 8 2026, 3:34 PM
Calm and Slightly Stronger, But Volatility Will be Back
Once or twice per week, the bond market manages to p...
Fri, May 8 2026, 1:52 PM
It ended up being a decent round trip for rates this week. Monday kicked things off with a jump to the highest level in more than a month, and the thi...
Fri, May 8 2026, 9:00 AM
Everyone's been talking about the ongoing change in the significance of the payroll number in the jobs report. OK, not everyone, but economists and bo...
Thu, May 7 2026, 3:24 PM
Another Mid-Day Reversal Driven by Dueling Headlines
The overnight session featured a modest but clearly-def...
Thu, May 7 2026, 2:46 PM
The day began on a fairly hopeful note for the mortgage market. During overnight trading hours, the bond market improved following a report regarding ...
Thu, May 7 2026, 9:08 AM
Bonds and oil rallied again in the overnight session, though not as swiftly as they did yesterday. News was thinner, but there was still an obvious ca...
Wed, May 6 2026, 4:15 PM
Pre-Market Gains Stuck Around All Day
The entirety of the domestic trading session was very flat compared to...
Wed, May 6 2026, 3:40 PM
Mortgage rates spiked sharply on Monday, hitting the highest levels in more than a month as escalation fears ramped up surrounding the Iran war. Yeste...
Wed, May 6 2026, 8:49 AM
There was one, big, obvious market mover overnight. At 4:50am ET, Axios reported that the U.S. and Iran are close to signing a one page memo of unders...
Tue, May 5 2026, 3:20 PM
Data Didn't Hurt, But Bonds Underperformed The Oil Price Recovery
Today's headline is somewhat misleading. I...
Tue, May 5 2026, 2:43 PM
One popular refrain in the mortgage industry is that rates take the escalator on the way up and the stairs on the way down. Yesterday was definitely a...
Tue, May 5 2026, 9:37 AM
After hitting the highest yields in more than a month yesterday, bonds have managed to pick up a few bps. The bulk of the recovery was already in plac...
Mon, May 4 2026, 4:08 PM
Markets Hit by Glut of Escalation Headlines
Monday's trading session ended up being as simple as it was unpl...
Mon, May 4 2026, 3:19 PM
Top-tier 30-year fixed rates are back above 6.5% today for the first time in more than a month for the average lender. Many lenders raised rates durin...
Mon, May 4 2026, 10:09 AM
The overnight and early domestic trading hours have brought a mix of familiar and unfamiliar patterns. Up until roughly 8:30am, we saw a very familiar...
Fri, May 1 2026, 3:27 PM
Some Volatility Surrounding Headlines, But Not Much Change
Bonds began the day roughly flat before losing gr...
Fri, May 1 2026, 1:58 PM
Low volatility was the most obvious theme for mortgage rates last week. From April 14th through last Friday, the range for a top-tier 30yr fixed rate ...
Fri, May 1 2026, 10:35 AM
Bonds were almost perfectly flat during the overnight session along with oil and stock futures. Morning trading ushered in more volatility as the war-...
Thu, Apr 30 2026, 4:29 PM
Bonds Recover With Oil, But Not Completely
Ever since bottoming out together on the morning of April 17th, b...
Thu, Apr 30 2026, 3:09 PM
Mortgage rates spiked on Wednesday (yesterday) after reports suggested a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. As has been the case for most of ...
Thu, Apr 30 2026, 9:40 AM
From an analytical standpoint, it's hard to offer new and interesting insights when the order of any given day is simply to observe broad war-related ...
Wed, Apr 29 2026, 4:42 PM
Today's Weakness Mostly War-Related With Small Boost From Fed
Because today was was a "Fed day" and because ...
Wed, Apr 29 2026, 4:09 PM
Mortgage rates jumped higher today at the fastest pace in weeks to the highest levels since March 30th. There were two key motivations for the increas...
Wed, Apr 29 2026, 2:00 PM
Available Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, on average, and the un...
Wed, Apr 29 2026, 9:31 AM
Last night's key news on the war involved reports of Trump telling aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade of Iran. The free flow of oil through Hor...
Tue, Apr 28 2026, 4:15 PM
Modest Gains After Opening Weaker
Tuesday ended up being a uneventful trading session despite 10yr yields hi...
