Tue, May 19 2026, 4:57 PM
Whales Making Waves in Treasury Futures
Nerd alert: there's no way to discuss what happened in the bond mark...
Tue, May 19 2026, 3:28 PM
It was another rough day for the bond market and, thus, for interest rates. Investors aggressively sold bonds in the first 2 hours of trading, taking ...
Tue, May 19 2026, 9:40 AM
Ever since the initial 2 week ceasefire was announced in the Iran war, the bond market has adhered to trend channels that align with either de-escalat...
Mon, May 18 2026, 4:18 PM
Bombarded by Headlines, But Little-Changed
Monday's trading session ended up being an exercise in headline-w...
Mon, May 18 2026, 3:34 PM
Mortgage rates hit their highest levels in more than 9 months at the end of last week. Now today, they've edged slightly higher yet again with the ave...
Mon, May 18 2026, 10:36 AM
Bonds began the overnight session by drifting somewhat higher in yield. The 10yr hit 4.63 before recovering modestly just before domestic trading bega...
Fri, May 15 2026, 5:12 PM
Bonds Continued Drifting Weaker Throughout The Day
Nothing new or interesting happened during the course of ...
Fri, May 15 2026, 12:40 PM
Mortgage rates are driven by bonds and the bond market hoped to see more evidence of shift toward peace during the 2-day Trump/Xi meeting in China. As...
Fri, May 15 2026, 9:19 AM
Far too many market participants were apparently hoping that some sort of positive news on the war would be somehow facilitated by the Trump/Xi summit...
Thu, May 14 2026, 4:22 PM
Rally Reverses, Leaving Bonds Weaker in The Afternoon
The day began with promise, but devolved into yet anot...
Thu, May 14 2026, 3:20 PM
May continues to be a more volatile month than the bulk of April when it comes to day over day mortgage rate movement. While the average day has seen ...
Thu, May 14 2026, 9:46 AM
A recovery toward lower oil prices paved the way for the bond market to recover yesterday morning's weakness and the same theme continued in the overn...
Wed, May 13 2026, 3:38 PM
MBS Fully Recover After Initial Reaction to Inflation Data
There's no question that this morning's PPI data ...
Wed, May 13 2026, 2:58 PM
Mortgage rates rose somewhat sharply yesterday to match the highest level since March 27th. They're just a hair higher today, thus officially at 6-wee...
Wed, May 13 2026, 10:21 AM
The Producer Price Index (PPI) is much more volatile and, on average, much less of a market mover than the Consumer Price Index (CPI), but occasionall...
Tue, May 12 2026, 4:06 PM
Highest Yields in 10 Months on War Headlines and Auction Concessions
Because CPI came out slightly higher to...
Tue, May 12 2026, 3:28 PM
When the Iran war was in its initial escalation phase, the initial surge in markets took the top-tier 30yr fixed rate to 6.64% for the average lender ...
Tue, May 12 2026, 9:29 AM
This morning's Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in slightly hotter than expected with core inflation running 2.8% annual vs 2.7% forecasts and overall ...
Mon, May 11 2026, 3:50 PM
Over Before it Began
Monday proved to be a boring trading day despite the moderately big sell-off. Yields ac...
Mon, May 11 2026, 3:30 PM
Last week was decidedly stronger for mortgage rates as they either held steady or moved lower on 5 out of 5 days. All told, it was a 0.14% drop from t...
Mon, May 11 2026, 11:28 AM
Bonds are starting the day moderately weaker. The reasons are straightforward. Chief among them, Trump rejected Iran's counterproposal to end the war,...
Fri, May 8 2026, 3:34 PM
Calm and Slightly Stronger, But Volatility Will be Back
Once or twice per week, the bond market manages to p...
Fri, May 8 2026, 1:52 PM
It ended up being a decent round trip for rates this week. Monday kicked things off with a jump to the highest level in more than a month, and the thi...
Fri, May 8 2026, 9:00 AM
Everyone's been talking about the ongoing change in the significance of the payroll number in the jobs report. OK, not everyone, but economists and bo...
Thu, May 7 2026, 3:24 PM
Another Mid-Day Reversal Driven by Dueling Headlines
The overnight session featured a modest but clearly-def...
Thu, May 7 2026, 2:46 PM
The day began on a fairly hopeful note for the mortgage market. During overnight trading hours, the bond market improved following a report regarding ...
Thu, May 7 2026, 9:08 AM
Bonds and oil rallied again in the overnight session, though not as swiftly as they did yesterday. News was thinner, but there was still an obvious ca...
Wed, May 6 2026, 4:15 PM
Pre-Market Gains Stuck Around All Day
The entirety of the domestic trading session was very flat compared to...
Wed, May 6 2026, 3:40 PM
Mortgage rates spiked sharply on Monday, hitting the highest levels in more than a month as escalation fears ramped up surrounding the Iran war. Yeste...
Wed, May 6 2026, 8:49 AM
There was one, big, obvious market mover overnight. At 4:50am ET, Axios reported that the U.S. and Iran are close to signing a one page memo of unders...
Tue, May 5 2026, 3:20 PM
Data Didn't Hurt, But Bonds Underperformed The Oil Price Recovery
Today's headline is somewhat misleading. I...
Tue, May 5 2026, 2:43 PM
One popular refrain in the mortgage industry is that rates take the escalator on the way up and the stairs on the way down. Yesterday was definitely a...
Tue, May 5 2026, 9:37 AM
After hitting the highest yields in more than a month yesterday, bonds have managed to pick up a few bps. The bulk of the recovery was already in plac...
Mon, May 4 2026, 4:08 PM
Markets Hit by Glut of Escalation Headlines
Monday's trading session ended up being as simple as it was unpl...
Mon, May 4 2026, 3:19 PM
Top-tier 30-year fixed rates are back above 6.5% today for the first time in more than a month for the average lender. Many lenders raised rates durin...
Mon, May 4 2026, 10:09 AM
The overnight and early domestic trading hours have brought a mix of familiar and unfamiliar patterns. Up until roughly 8:30am, we saw a very familiar...
Fri, May 1 2026, 3:27 PM
Some Volatility Surrounding Headlines, But Not Much Change
Bonds began the day roughly flat before losing gr...
Fri, May 1 2026, 1:58 PM
Low volatility was the most obvious theme for mortgage rates last week. From April 14th through last Friday, the range for a top-tier 30yr fixed rate ...
Fri, May 1 2026, 10:35 AM
Bonds were almost perfectly flat during the overnight session along with oil and stock futures. Morning trading ushered in more volatility as the war-...
Thu, Apr 30 2026, 4:29 PM
Bonds Recover With Oil, But Not Completely
Ever since bottoming out together on the morning of April 17th, b...
Thu, Apr 30 2026, 3:09 PM
Mortgage rates spiked on Wednesday (yesterday) after reports suggested a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. As has been the case for most of ...
Thu, Apr 30 2026, 9:40 AM
From an analytical standpoint, it's hard to offer new and interesting insights when the order of any given day is simply to observe broad war-related ...
Wed, Apr 29 2026, 4:42 PM
Today's Weakness Mostly War-Related With Small Boost From Fed
Because today was was a "Fed day" and because ...
Wed, Apr 29 2026, 4:09 PM
Mortgage rates jumped higher today at the fastest pace in weeks to the highest levels since March 30th. There were two key motivations for the increas...
Wed, Apr 29 2026, 2:00 PM
Available Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, on average, and the un...
Wed, Apr 29 2026, 9:31 AM
Last night's key news on the war involved reports of Trump telling aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade of Iran. The free flow of oil through Hor...
Tue, Apr 28 2026, 4:15 PM
Modest Gains After Opening Weaker
Tuesday ended up being a uneventful trading session despite 10yr yields hi...
Tue, Apr 28 2026, 3:32 PM
Mortgage rates moved moderately higher today for the average lender, but not for any exciting reasons. Rather, the change has more to do with timing o...
Tue, Apr 28 2026, 10:27 AM
Bonds sold off slowly and steadily overnight, largely tracing a similarly steady rise in oil prices. The latter is most easily attributed to reports t...
Mon, Apr 27 2026, 3:51 PM
Modest Weakness, But Range Persists
Bonds lost ground today, but not for any particular reason. Most importa...
