Thu, Jul 10 2025, 4:49 PM
Most of this week's mortgage rate movement has been an aftershock following last week's jobs report. That data sent rates quickly higher and that mome...
Thu, Jul 10 2025, 11:33 AM
You would be hard pressed to find a week with less to offer in terms of scheduled economic data. In fact, it's not an overstatement to say that regul...
Wed, Jul 9 2025, 4:30 PM
Correction to the Correction. Will it Last?
Hindsight is 20/20 and foresight may have been close enough this...
Wed, Jul 9 2025, 3:35 PM
It's a bit of a stretch to refer to the past week as a "losing streak" for mortgage rates. The worst part about it was the consistency of upward movem...
Wed, Jul 9 2025, 10:09 AM
Anyone who's spent much time around MBS Live knows about our favorite mantra regarding predictions. Specifically, they are for suckers--at least in t...
Tue, Jul 8 2025, 3:44 PM
Correction Starting to Level Off?
Even though very little changed during the course of the trading day, one ...
Tue, Jul 8 2025, 3:26 PM
Bad news first: mortgage rates have been moving steadily higher in July with the average top tier 30yr fixed scenario rising from 6.67% to 6.81% in ju...
Tue, Jul 8 2025, 11:26 AM
Amid a complete absence of actionable economic data in the new week, stocks and bonds have been left to focus on new developments on the tariff front....
Mon, Jul 7 2025, 4:19 PM
Correction Continues Despite Tariff Announcements
Bonds were moderately weaker to start the day and continue...
Mon, Jul 7 2025, 3:13 PM
For the entire 2nd half of June, it was easy to be spoiled by the absence of volatility in mortgage rates. During that time, rates were either lower o...
Mon, Jul 7 2025, 10:16 AM
Fresh off the rally reversal courtesy of last week's jobs report, the bond market now finds itself in a virtually data-free week with little else to i...
Thu, Jul 3 2025, 3:25 PM
Big Market Reaction but Mortgages Outperform
Today's jobs report would have been bad for rates if it was eve...
Thu, Jul 3 2025, 2:56 PM
Today brought the hotly anticipated jobs report. This is the "official" job count and unemployment rate data for the U.S. and no other report has as ...
Thu, Jul 3 2025, 10:23 AM
Apart from the fact that this morning's jobs report contrasted starkly from the slew of anecdotal evidence suggesting a weaker labor market in June, t...
Wed, Jul 2 2025, 3:43 PM
Bonds Circle The Wagons Ahead of High Risk NFP
The consensus for tomorrow's NFP (nonfarm payrolls, the princ...
Wed, Jul 2 2025, 2:53 PM
Mortgage rates have generally been falling since May 21st and have done nothing but move lower for more than 2 weeks. That winning streak finally cam...
Wed, Jul 2 2025, 9:54 AM
ADP employment was this morning's key economic report and it came out sharply weaker than expected (-33k vs 95k f'cast). There are many past examples ...
Tue, Jul 1 2025, 4:06 PM
Traders Buy The Dip After AM Data
After a bit of overnight strength and an early morning pull-back, bonds we...
Tue, Jul 1 2025, 3:09 PM
It's been 88 days since the average 30yr fixed mortgage rate was as low as it is today--close enough to 3 months. Some lenders may be higher or lower...
Tue, Jul 1 2025, 10:33 AM
Tuesday brings the week's first decent dose of meaningful economic data with both S&P/ISM Manufacturing PMIs and Job Openings. The PMI data was somew...
Mon, Jun 30 2025, 4:45 PM
Steady Gains in the PM Hours
It's common to see the effects of month/quarter-end trading most prominently in...
Mon, Jun 30 2025, 3:28 PM
April 3rd and 4th saw the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rates well into the "mid 6's." Many lenders were able to quote 6.5% at the time. Just...
Mon, Jun 30 2025, 10:14 AM
Month/quarter end trading is a somewhat esoteric and potentially frustrating concept for the typical market watcher because it seemingly violates the ...
Fri, Jun 27 2025, 3:24 PM
Modest Friday Bounce Does Little to Alter Bigger Picture
After a decent mid-day recover, bonds gave up their...
Fri, Jun 27 2025, 1:16 PM
Friday's mortgage rates ended up being right in line with Thursday's on average. At 6.72%, the MND daily rate index is as low as it's been since earl...
Fri, Jun 27 2025, 10:04 AM
Bonds are slightly weaker to start the final trading day of the week, but that has nothing to do with this morning's PCE data. Despite being the Fed'...
Thu, Jun 26 2025, 3:32 PM
The Trend is Friendly For Now
A common financial market quip is that the "trend is your friend." We like to...
Thu, Jun 26 2025, 3:02 PM
After topping out on May 21st, the average day for mortgage rates has been a good one. This has been especially true since June 6th with our 30yr fix...
Thu, Jun 26 2025, 10:25 AM
Visually, the number of line items in this morning's economic calendar may seem daunting. In fact, several of the reports sound like they should matte...
Wed, Jun 25 2025, 4:21 PM
Mid Day Reversal Leaves Bonds Slightly Stronger
This morning, we noted the lightness of the selling pressure...
Wed, Jun 25 2025, 3:21 PM
The average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate had already dipped to the lowest levels since May 1st at the start of the week. Two additional days of ...
Wed, Jun 25 2025, 11:23 AM
Bonds are taking a breath this morning after hitting the best levels in more than a month yesterday. The event calendar is much lighter than it seems ...
Tue, Jun 24 2025, 3:34 PM
Solid Response to Data and Dovishness
The morning commentary focused more on the relatively dovish tone stru...
Tue, Jun 24 2025, 2:37 PM
Yesterday saw mortgage rates fall to the best levels since early May. Now, today, we'd have to go all the way back to the end of April to find anythi...
Tue, Jun 24 2025, 11:19 AM
Powell's prepared remarks and Q&A at today's congressional testimony are showing the market a clearer path to the possibility of rate cuts in the near...
Mon, Jun 23 2025, 4:18 PM
Best Closing Levels in More Than a Month
Don't look now, but rates just inched their way down to the best le...
Mon, Jun 23 2025, 3:12 PM
Mortgage rates ended the previous week roughly in line with the best levels since May 1st. Today's modest improvement made it official. Mortgage ra...
Mon, Jun 23 2025, 11:23 AM
A vast majority of long-time bond watchers share the same general understanding of how war impacts rates. Specifically, the increased global economic ...
Fri, Jun 20 2025, 5:00 PM
Underwhelming (But Friendly) Conclusion
The present week didn't manage to offer nearly as much excitement as...
Fri, Jun 20 2025, 1:07 PM
With Thursday being a federal holiday, banks (and more importantly, the underlying market for mortgage related bonds) were closed. This means that le...
Fri, Jun 20 2025, 11:00 AM
Much like the Friday after Thanksgiving, we have to wonder what the point is of a trading session without any neighbors (there's actually some guiding...
Wed, Jun 18 2025, 4:57 PM
Fed Threads Needle of Apathy
Today marked one of only 4 days of the year with an updated Fed dot plot. When ...
Wed, Jun 18 2025, 4:17 PM
It happens, but it's rare. A Fed "dot plot" day has come and gone with mortgage rates almost perfectly unchanged from the previous day. This speaks to...
Wed, Jun 18 2025, 2:00 PM
Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The u...
Wed, Jun 18 2025, 10:47 AM
Fed day is here and there's a 0% chance of a rate cut. That's been the case for just over a month due a combination of April's jobs report and the st...
Tue, Jun 17 2025, 4:31 PM
Dot Plot in Focus With Fed's "No Cut" Announcement
Bonds lost some ground after this morning's economic data...
Tue, Jun 17 2025, 3:19 PM
Mortgage rates continue operating in a narrow range with almost every day of the past two months falling between 6.8 and 7.0% for a top tier 30yr fixe...
Tue, Jun 17 2025, 10:53 AM
Bonds were decently stronger in the overnight session, but not for any new, specific reasons. Trading levels have been cutting an increasingly narrow...
Mon, Jun 16 2025, 4:15 PM
Token Weakness Without a Cause
Sometimes bonds rally or sell-off for no apparent reason, or at least for no ...
Mon, Jun 16 2025, 3:53 PM
While there's been no shortage of political and geopolitical headlines over the past 2 business days, there hasn't been much by way of inspiration for...
