Fri, May 30 2025, 4:19 PM
Strongest Close of the Week After Well-Contained Month-End Volatility
There was always a reasonably high bar...
Fri, May 30 2025, 3:28 PM
It has turned out to be a surprisingly calm week for mortgage rates and, as of today, largely a victorious one, even if the victories have been modest...
Fri, May 30 2025, 9:14 AM
Today's PCE Price Index is one of the two main consumer inflation reports put out by the US government. It's bigger and broader than CPI, but CPI com...
Thu, May 29 2025, 4:46 PM
Bonds Hold Morning Gains; No Reaction to Tariff Headlines
To be clear, markets reacted to tariff headlines y...
Thu, May 29 2025, 3:49 PM
There was a bit of behind-the-scenes volatility in the bond market today. Normally, bond volatility translates to interest rate volatility. In some c...
Thu, May 29 2025, 10:56 AM
We have a primer in the MBS Live knowledge base regarding the potential for overnight news and bond trading to give a completely different impression ...
Wed, May 28 2025, 4:51 PM
Minimal Movement Amid Absence of Data
It was ultimately a fairly uneventful session for bonds with the 5yr T...
Wed, May 28 2025, 4:13 PM
After moving moderately lower to start the new week yesterday, mortgage rates backtracked ever-so-slightly today. Top tier conventional 30yr fixed ra...
Wed, May 28 2025, 12:14 PM
After starting the holiday-shortened week on a positive note yesterday, bonds are already circling the wagons and encountering some resistance. This d...
Tue, May 27 2025, 5:20 PM
Bonds Finally Seeing Some Support
Whether one wants to give credit to the big rally in Japanese bonds, the w...
Tue, May 27 2025, 4:48 PM
The 30yr fixed mortgage rate index spent 3 consecutive days over 7% last week--the first time that's happened since February. Rates have generally be...
Tue, May 27 2025, 11:33 AM
Last week's overseas headlines raised questions about about a spillover from volatility in the Japanese bond market to US yields. At issue: attention-...
Fri, May 23 2025, 3:34 PM
A Little Early Excitement
Bonds began the day with a bit of excitement following Trump comments on raising E...
Fri, May 23 2025, 12:38 PM
The bond market is scheduled to close 3 hour earlier than normal today--a common practice surrounding federal holiday weekends. This means 3 fewer hou...
Fri, May 23 2025, 10:37 AM
The most notable development on what might otherwise have been a sleepy half-day ahead of a holiday weekend was Trump's "recommendation" of a 50% tari...
Thu, May 22 2025, 4:38 PM
Slightly Stronger Because Not Every Day Can be Weaker
Bond yields have moved almost exclusively higher in Ma...
Thu, May 22 2025, 3:20 PM
Mortgage rates hit their highest level in just over 3 months yesterday with financial markets generally protesting the absence of more serious spendin...
Thu, May 22 2025, 10:06 AM
The most significant development of the overnight session was the early morning passage of the spending bill in the House. This resulted in only a mod...
Wed, May 21 2025, 4:34 PM
Treasury Auction Blamed as Bond Vigilantes' Smoking Gun
Vigilante justice! Taking matters into one's own ha...
Wed, May 21 2025, 3:43 PM
Two days ago, mortgage rates began the day at 7.04% before mid-day improvements brought the average back down to 6.99%. Today started out in a simila...
Wed, May 21 2025, 10:50 AM
We're now into the 3rd day of a week that's conspicuously lacking in relevant econ data. In addition, the looming holiday weekend hinders participatio...
Tue, May 20 2025, 5:01 PM
Ultimately Sort of Flat if You Use Your Imagination
Here's a quick and easy method for imagining that bonds ...
Tue, May 20 2025, 4:32 PM
Mortgage rates ultimately managed to hold steady on Tuesday despite some underlying market volatility. Rates change day to day (and sometimes intraday...
Tue, May 20 2025, 10:11 AM
It's a holiday-shortened week with a relatively empty economic calendar, thus forcing the bond market to find its movement cues elsewhere. To some sma...
Mon, May 19 2025, 3:51 PM
(Un)Surprising Reversal After Initial Weakness
The sharp overnight losses in stocks and bonds were consisten...
Mon, May 19 2025, 3:05 PM
Mortgage rates jumped sharply over the weekend as financial markets reacted to Moody's credit rating downgrade of the U.S. News of the downgrade brok...
Mon, May 19 2025, 9:10 AM
When Moody's announced the surprise cut of the US credit rating on Friday, there were only a few minutes left to trade and all but the latest working ...
Fri, May 16 2025, 5:26 PM
Moody's Pulls Pin And Walks Away With 10 Minutes Left to Trade
Bonds began the day stronger after a gentle o...
Fri, May 16 2025, 4:25 PM
The average top tier 30yr fixed rate is set to end the week just a few hundredths of a percent higher than last Friday at 6.92%. That's a victory--al...
Fri, May 16 2025, 10:34 AM
One might assume that an economic report like Import Prices would carry a lot of weight in light of the news cycle or that the highest 1yr inflation e...
Thu, May 15 2025, 4:25 PM
Today's Gains Help Us Understand Yesterday's Losses
Wednesday's weakness was severely lacking in the scapego...
Thu, May 15 2025, 3:36 PM
Mortgage rates have done almost nothing but move higher in the month of May. The latest bump--seen yesterday--took the average top tier 30yr fixed rat...
Thu, May 15 2025, 9:58 AM
This morning's market action is quickly helping us understand the enigmatic trading seen yesterday (i.e. a sell-off without any great scapegoats). Re...
Wed, May 14 2025, 5:08 PM
Another "Just Because" Sell Off
This is getting old... and unfortunately, more prevalent. The bond market h...
Wed, May 14 2025, 4:26 PM
In early April, amid the most volatile portion of the market's reaction to the tariff announcement, mortgage rates were officially over 7% for a singl...
Wed, May 14 2025, 11:13 AM
It's a potentially frustrating time for bond watchers. The rules have already changed in a big way to accommodate the new wild card presented by tarif...
Tue, May 13 2025, 5:07 PM
Bonds End Almost Perfectly Flat
There are two kinds of rate/bond watchers today: those who tuned in late in...
Tue, May 13 2025, 4:26 PM
Tuesday brought the release of an economic report that has frequently been responsible for big swings in mortgage rates. The Consumer Price Index (CPI...
Tue, May 13 2025, 10:49 AM
Heading into the session, we knew there was a high bar for CPI to have a positive influence on bonds with the future tariff landscape reducing the rel...
Mon, May 12 2025, 5:07 PM
Is All News Bad News For Bonds? Will CPI Matter?
At times these day, it may seem like all news is bad news ...
Mon, May 12 2025, 4:32 PM
Tariffs and trade policy have been a new and important consideration for the bond market for just over a month now. That matters to mortgage rates bec...
Mon, May 12 2025, 11:01 AM
10yr yields were up 8bps overnight to the highest levels since April 11th after weekend trade talks between the US and China resulted in significant r...
Fri, May 9 2025, 5:07 PM
Flat Friday, But Volatility Risks Remain
Bonds started weaker, flipped stronger mid-day, and then slowly mov...
Fri, May 9 2025, 4:30 PM
Whether it's today vs yesterday, or today vs the end of last week, the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate is just a hair lower. Today's improv...
Fri, May 9 2025, 11:04 AM
A glance at today's economic calendar quickly reveals that Fed speeches are the only game in town in terms of scheduled events. But what can the Fed ...
Thu, May 8 2025, 4:52 PM
Surprisingly Big Sell Off Relative to The Inspiration
Bonds ended up selling off somewhat sharply today with...
Thu, May 8 2025, 4:04 PM
Mortgage rates moved back up to the higher levels seen earlier this week after the official announcement of a trade deal between the U.S. and the U.K....
Thu, May 8 2025, 11:00 AM
Bonds mostly lost ground in the overnight session, and then lost just a bit more ground after the 8:30am econ data. This consisted of Jobless Claims ...
Wed, May 7 2025, 4:34 PM
Just as Underwhelming as Expected
No sense in trying to manufacture excitement out of something boring. Even...
Wed, May 7 2025, 3:35 PM
There's nothing like a Fed announcement day to get almost every media outlet to run headlines that attempt to tie the day's market movement to the Fed...
