Fri, Dec 6 2024, 4:29 PM
As of last week, rates were showing some signs of resilience, but they had to wait for the true test from this week's jobs report. Spoiler alert: they...
Fri, Dec 6 2024, 9:52 AM
We all know that today's jobs report is the most important economic data on an given month. We also know that a higher payroll count tends to be bad f...
Thu, Dec 5 2024, 4:10 PM
Calm Week So Far, But All Bets Are Off After Jobs Report
Bonds were slightly weaker overnight and did just a...
Thu, Dec 5 2024, 3:58 PM
It's been a remarkably calm week for mortgage rates, and a fairly decent one relative to several recent examples. The average top tier 30yr fixed rat...
Thu, Dec 5 2024, 8:46 AM
Jobless Claims
224k vs 215k f'cast, 213k prev
Continued Claims
1871k vs 1910k f'cast, 1896k prev
At first glance, the 224k figure...
Wed, Dec 4 2024, 4:34 PM
No Whammies From Powell as Rates Rally on ISM Data
Bonds came away from this morning's economic data with a ...
Wed, Dec 4 2024, 4:23 PM
Mortgage lenders generally try to avoid setting rates more than once per day, but they will make changes if the underlying bond market is moving enoug...
Wed, Dec 4 2024, 12:00 PM
Bonds drifted steadily higher in yield during the overnight session with most of the weakness seen after European markets opened. The net effect was r...
Tue, Dec 3 2024, 3:53 PM
Friendly Fed Comments No Match For The Range
The day began with a bond rally courtesy of geopolitical headli...
Tue, Dec 3 2024, 3:30 PM
The bond market is the primary driver of mortgage rate movement and normally, "weakness" equates to higher rates. Bonds are slightly weaker today com...
Tue, Dec 3 2024, 9:57 AM
Of all of the motivations in all the markets, this one had to walk into ours. Or perhaps it rolled in on tank tracks. Just over an hour ago, South K...
Mon, Dec 2 2024, 4:42 PM
Bonds Hold Vast Majority of Last Week's Gains
The most significant thing that happened as the market returne...
Mon, Dec 2 2024, 4:34 PM
Mortgage rates remain elevated relative to the levels seen in September and early October, but they've definitely moved down a bit from their recent h...
Mon, Dec 2 2024, 9:18 AM
It can be a bit tricky to understand the roll of various forms of positioning when it comes to otherwise inexplicable movement in the bond market. It...
Wed, Nov 27 2024, 3:17 PM
Stronger Bonds, Before and After (And Regardless of) Economic Data
Bonds were stronger overnight with 10yr y...
Wed, Nov 27 2024, 2:53 PM
The interest rate market continues the healing process after taking heavy damage in October. During the course of that month, the average top tier co...
Wed, Nov 27 2024, 9:18 AM
Although this morning contained the week's most active slate of economic data, it has completely failed to inspire even the most modest of responses i...
Tue, Nov 26 2024, 3:17 PM
No Major Data. No Major Drama
While today's economic calendar was not necessarily "empty," it may as well ha...
Tue, Nov 26 2024, 2:12 PM
Although there was a busier calendar of economic data today, mortgage rates are little changed after dropping at the fastest pace in several weeks to ...
Tue, Nov 26 2024, 9:50 AM
Monday brought a rare event for the bond market in the recent context as yields fell throughout the day and never really thought about bouncing. It wa...
Mon, Nov 25 2024, 4:05 PM
Come For The Big Rally, Stay For The Staying Power
Bonds rallied sharply on Monday. It wasn't the first tim...
Mon, Nov 25 2024, 3:32 PM
Last Monday, mortgage rates were near the highest levels in more than 3 months. A week later, and the average lender is right in line with the lowest...
Mon, Nov 25 2024, 8:54 AM
Of all of Trump's political appointees, Treasury Secretary is the most consequential for the bond market ("Treasury" is right in the title, after all!...
Fri, Nov 22 2024, 4:26 PM
Getting Back to Normal, For a Few Days Anyway
After a decidedly abnormal 6 weeks beginning in early October,...
Fri, Nov 22 2024, 3:01 PM
Starting in early October, mortgage rates experienced significant volatility, meaning the average day over day change was much bigger than normal. Wh...
Fri, Nov 22 2024, 12:03 PM
The bond market has been forced to take the victories that are within reach. As November winds down, the best victory we could have hoped for was the...
Thu, Nov 21 2024, 4:52 PM
Another Flat Day, This Time With Data
While it would be an overstatement to say that bonds have fully outgro...
Thu, Nov 21 2024, 4:26 PM
They may not be low. In fact, they may still be a lot higher than you want, but at least they haven't been too volatility this week. For the 7th day...
Thu, Nov 21 2024, 12:13 PM
It's been a bit of a chaotic morning so far, but in a narrow enough range to make it relatively boring in the bigger picture. Bonds began the day in ...
Wed, Nov 20 2024, 4:22 PM
Remember October and the first part of November--not because of the election, but rather because of the relentless rise in mortgage rates? Would you ...
Wed, Nov 20 2024, 10:34 AM
There has been plenty of news over the past 48 hours regarding the U.S. greenlighting Ukraine to use long range missiles to attack Russia. Yesterday'...
Tue, Nov 19 2024, 4:59 PM
Bonds Give Back Most of The Overnight Gains
Stocks and bonds had a logical response to the threat of global ...
Tue, Nov 19 2024, 4:27 PM
Ask your favorite curmudgeonly old market watcher and they'll be happy to explain what "always" happens in financial markets when there's breaking new...
Tue, Nov 19 2024, 10:31 AM
Tuesday brings a classic example of a seemingly significant geopolitical headline resulting in a completely underwhelming bond market reaction. When ...
Mon, Nov 18 2024, 4:33 PM
Still Waiting For an End to Unfriendly Trend
It was an uneventful Monday for the bond market. Economic data...
Mon, Nov 18 2024, 4:01 PM
The average top tier conventional 30yr fixed rate was just a hair over 7% on Friday afternoon and the same is true at the start of the new week. Rate...
Mon, Nov 18 2024, 11:10 AM
While financial news outlets continue focusing on politics and Trump's cabinet picks, the bond market is expressing anxiety about the risk that econom...
Fri, Nov 15 2024, 3:41 PM
Uneventful Conclusion to Another Volatile Week
This morning began like many other recent mornings with econo...
Fri, Nov 15 2024, 2:54 PM
This afternoon's mortgage rates are higher than yesterday's latest levels. That's a result of bond market weakness seen late yesterday and earlier th...
Fri, Nov 15 2024, 9:28 AM
All 3 of this morning's 8:30am economic reports were stronger than expected, and the 9:15am report was right in line with expectations. Of these, Ret...
Thu, Nov 14 2024, 4:34 PM
Powell Rains on Bond Market's Mini Parade
Today is a bit of a mirror image compared to yesterday. Bonds los...
Thu, Nov 14 2024, 4:15 PM
Losses... weakness... selling pressure... When any of these things happen in the bond market, it puts upward pressure on interest rates. Mortgage ra...
Thu, Nov 14 2024, 10:01 AM
The morning has been both straightforward and interesting. The straightforward part involved a moderate sell-off following stronger economic data. J...
Wed, Nov 13 2024, 3:28 PM
While there's been plenty of movement in the average mortgage rate on any given day recently, today was not one of them. 30yr fixed rates remained ab...
Wed, Nov 13 2024, 10:20 AM
Bonds managed a moderate rally in response to this morning's inflation data. While it has since been mostly erased, it was as strong of a showing as ...
Tue, Nov 12 2024, 4:35 PM
Back to Regularly Scheduled Programming (Unfortunately)
Bonds sold off on Tuesday both during the domestic s...
Tue, Nov 12 2024, 3:35 PM
Last Thursday and Friday offered some hope that the persistent move to higher rates was finally leveling off. It wasn't necessarily a rational hope, ...
Tue, Nov 12 2024, 9:24 AM
In the run up to the election, we offered constant reminders that a 10bp move in Treasuries wasn't really a big deal, and that such volatility could b...
Fri, Nov 8 2024, 6:14 PM
Back to Uneventful Already?
MBS are ending the trading day at almost perfectly unchanged levels--not the sor...
Fri, Nov 8 2024, 5:22 PM
The bond market dictates day to day movement for all manner of interest rates, including mortgages. On election night, bond yields (another word for ...
