Thu, Oct 30 2025, 4:59 PM
Uneventfully Flat After Initial Weakness
The bond market only had a little more selling to do thanks to the ...
Thu, Oct 30 2025, 3:42 PM
Every now and then, a Thursday comes along where we have to set the record straight on what is actually going on with mortgage rates. That's because F...
Thu, Oct 30 2025, 10:22 AM
The simplest way to understand yesterday's post-Fed sell-off is as follows. The market's enthusiasm for 3 Fed rate cuts in 2025 had grown a bit too la...
Wed, Oct 29 2025, 4:02 PM
Today was not a foregone conclusion and there was no way to know ahead of time that it would end like this, but the outcome is exactly why we've gone ...
Wed, Oct 29 2025, 3:12 PM
Another Hawkish Powell Press Conference Harshes Bonds' Mellow
The Fed cut rates and ended QT. Neither were ...
Wed, Oct 29 2025, 2:01 PM
Recent Available indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year has been expanding at a moderate pa...
Wed, Oct 29 2025, 11:50 AM
Bonds are a hair weaker this morning with losses showing up in the overnight session and mostly flattening out in domestic trading. Without any big t...
Tue, Oct 28 2025, 4:59 PM
Modestly Stronger Ahead of Fed Day
Without any market moving econ data on Tuesday, bonds finally managed to ...
Tue, Oct 28 2025, 4:11 PM
Rates have been flirting with long term lows over the past 2 weeks, but today made it official. Today's average top tier 30yr fixed rate perfectly ma...
Tue, Oct 28 2025, 10:57 AM
First off, bonds are doing fine this morning. 10yr yields are technically higher on the day, but only when compared to yesterday's 5pm levels. As fa...
Mon, Oct 27 2025, 3:41 PM
Bonds Improve After Treasury Auctions
Treasury auctions don't always cause a reaction in bonds, but they did...
Mon, Oct 27 2025, 3:15 PM
Mortgage rates fell to the lowest levels in a month last Tuesday and barely budged through the rest of the week. Now, at the start of the new week, th...
Mon, Oct 27 2025, 10:34 AM
As the shutdown continues, econ data remains sparse. This makes for smaller, more range-bound movement overall with last week making a decent case to ...
Fri, Oct 24 2025, 4:47 PM
Decent Recovery After AM Backtracking
CPI data was a mixed bag for bonds. Top-line numbers fueled a quick r...
Fri, Oct 24 2025, 2:45 PM
This morning brought the release of the much-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI). This is one of the two biggest inflation reports from the U.S. go...
Fri, Oct 24 2025, 9:47 AM
In terms of topline results, CPI was bond friendly with the core at .223 vs .3 and the headline at 0.3 vs 0.4 in monthly terms. Annually, we're runni...
Thu, Oct 23 2025, 5:00 PM
CPI Just as Risky as Usual--Perhaps More So
Bonds sold off on Thursday in a move that was as easy to chalk u...
Thu, Oct 23 2025, 3:22 PM
Mortgage rates were effectively unchanged on Thursday with the average lender very close to the best levels in over a year. But when it comes to the u...
Thu, Oct 23 2025, 10:18 AM
Everything's relative when it comes to rates being high or low, but let's agree that the past 2 years have relentlessly driven home the notion of an i...
Wed, Oct 22 2025, 3:50 PM
20yr Treasury Auction to The Rescue
The day began with a bond market that looked like it might take an oppor...
Wed, Oct 22 2025, 3:14 PM
Mortgage rates were perfectly unchanged today, on average. With that, they remain in line with the lowest levels in more than a year and very close t...
Wed, Oct 22 2025, 11:17 AM
Think back to October 17th. MBS opened slightly weaker and ended the day down about an eighth of a point. That was the last time we had a weaker star...
Tue, Oct 21 2025, 5:07 PM
Slow, Steady Gains Continue
Perhaps the absence of big-ticket econ data has left bond traders to ponder a re...
Tue, Oct 21 2025, 4:29 PM
The bonds that underly mortgage rates were only slightly stronger today, but that's never a bad thing when they closed near the best levels in a year ...
Tue, Oct 21 2025, 11:34 AM
On the one hand, there's not much going on for the bond market these days. The jobs report is a flat-out requirement in terms of informing major chan...
Mon, Oct 20 2025, 4:17 PM
Strange Combo of Excitement and Boredom
Boring stuff first: there was no significant data, news, volume, or ...
Mon, Oct 20 2025, 3:23 PM
Mortgage rates ended last week at the lowest levels in just over a month. It was the 3rd best day in over a year and the 24th best day in over 3 years...
Mon, Oct 20 2025, 11:16 AM
New week. Same grind. We're waiting (likely for a good while longer) for the government shutdown to end before the most relevant econ data can truly e...
Fri, Oct 17 2025, 5:01 PM
Logical Pull-Back on Tamer Tariff Talk, But Mortgages Outperform
If there was only one event to be aware of ...
Fri, Oct 17 2025, 2:22 PM
The average top tier 30yr fixed rate was unchanged on Friday despite the bond market being slightly weaker. Normally, weaker bonds mean higher rates, ...
Fri, Oct 17 2025, 11:53 AM
By process of elimination and ongoing forensic efforts, it's becoming more and more clear that yesterday's mystery rally in the short end of the yield...
Thu, Oct 16 2025, 4:16 PM
Seriously... No One Seems to Know
Today's most prominent feature was a large, rapid move in Fed Funds Future...
Thu, Oct 16 2025, 3:42 PM
Despite a stark absence of any truly inspiring events, interest rates have managed to put in two fairly serious days of movement. In today's case spec...
Thu, Oct 16 2025, 9:40 AM
There were quite a few economic reports that would have been released this morning were it not for the gov shutdown. OK, well only 3 notable absences...
Wed, Oct 15 2025, 5:32 PM
Fairly Flat At Strongest Levels in Weeks
10yr yields ended the day a mere 0.1bp higher than yesterday (4.029...
Wed, Oct 15 2025, 4:26 PM
Mortgage rates are based on bonds and bonds are trading at their best levels since September 17th. Of course there are different kinds of bonds, so w...
Wed, Oct 15 2025, 10:16 AM
Stocks have made a bit of a round trip since last Friday when Trump's tariff comments sparked a big sell-off. Bonds benefited from that at the time. ...
Tue, Oct 14 2025, 5:43 PM
Yields Hug Multi-Week Lows After Powell Speech
Bonds were remarkably resilient over the extended weekend giv...
Tue, Oct 14 2025, 5:02 PM
Last week ended with mortgage rates dropping to their best levels since September 17th. Over the weekend, the underlying bond market maintained the ga...
Tue, Oct 14 2025, 9:59 AM
Bonds are flashing red on the screen (depending on when you look), but even at their weakest levels of the morning, we'd still consider this a stronge...
Fri, Oct 10 2025, 5:43 PM
Markets Rocked by New Tariff Drama
Bonds were already having a decent day this morning with overnight market...
Fri, Oct 10 2025, 3:16 PM
Mortgage rates saw their biggest day-over-day decline of the past several weeks today in response to unexpected news regarding additional tariffs on C...
Fri, Oct 10 2025, 9:44 AM
At the start of the week, we noted Japanese political developments as a key reason for overnight losses on Monday morning. This had to do with Takaich...
Thu, Oct 9 2025, 4:05 PM
Uneventful Day; MBS Underperform
It's not uncommon to see MBS outperform their Treasury benchmarks in the ru...
Thu, Oct 9 2025, 3:33 PM
It's getting pretty tough to weave an interesting narrative on mortgage rates over the past 3 weeks. During that time, they just haven't changed that ...
Thu, Oct 9 2025, 9:17 AM
With Jobless Claims on hold due to the shutdown, bonds are forced to endure another data-free morning. The calendar offered a glimmer of hope with a P...
Wed, Oct 8 2025, 3:21 PM
Some Selling Pressure After Auction and Fed Minutes
There were no market-moving economic reports scheduled f...
Wed, Oct 8 2025, 3:00 PM
Mortgage rates technically ticked a hair lower today, but it's more accurate to view them as being broadly sideways. Some lenders issued improvements ...
Wed, Oct 8 2025, 9:33 AM
While there are a smattering of Fed speakers on the calendar today, the morning comments are not likely to have an impact. In fact, the average Fed sp...
Tue, Oct 7 2025, 4:26 PM
Bonds Turn Green After Econ Data and Treasury Auction
Bonds began the day in slightly weaker territory as yi...
