Today, 4:37 PM
Bonds End Up Little-Changed. Other Markets May Have Helped
Bonds began the day with a bit of selling pressur...
Today, 3:59 PM
Sometimes being tuned into daily mortgage rate changes means coming across other news about financial markets. In today's case, that could expose you ...
Today, 9:51 AM
Continued jobless claims dropped to the lowest level since October 2024 and bonds are selling off a bit. Those two things may seem like they're clear...
Wed, Jan 28 2026, 4:16 PM
No Surprises From Powell. No Major Movement in Rates
As expected, the Fed held rates steady today. The state...
Wed, Jan 28 2026, 3:51 PM
On some occasions, a rate announcement from the Federal Reserve (even one that results in no change to the Fed Funds Rate) can cause a huge move in mo...
Wed, Jan 28 2026, 2:00 PM
Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate solid pace. Job gains have slowed this year, remained low, ...
Wed, Jan 28 2026, 10:10 AM
Wednesday brings 2026's first Fed announcement, but it's guaranteed to be one of the least interesting. For a start, this is one of 4 annual meetings ...
Tue, Jan 27 2026, 4:15 PM
Gradual Weakness After AM Gains
Bonds began the day in weaker territory, but logged some solid gains in the ...
Tue, Jan 27 2026, 3:40 PM
Today was the 5th day in a row where mortgage rates moved at least a little bit lower. While rate movement is often the product of obvious underlying ...
Tue, Jan 27 2026, 8:37 AM
There are few developments in bond market charts that can lead even fundamental analysts to acknowledge the technicals. One of the most common catalys...
Mon, Jan 26 2026, 3:59 PM
Small, Steady Gains and MBS Outperformance
It was a relatively quiet Monday for the bond market, but not a b...
Mon, Jan 26 2026, 3:20 PM
Mortgage rates trickled modestly lower again today for the 4th straight business day on Monday. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate is the lowest it'...
Mon, Jan 26 2026, 9:05 AM
This week's only marquee calendar event is Wednesday's Fed announcement, and it's unclear what the Fed could possibly do or say to inspire much of a r...
Fri, Jan 23 2026, 4:45 PM
Uneventful Conclusion to a Volatile Week
Bonds put in a decent day on Friday, ultimately getting back into p...
Fri, Jan 23 2026, 2:49 PM
This week's only real mortgage rate movement was seen at the outset on Tuesday morning (Monday was closed for the holiday) in response to geopolitical...
Fri, Jan 23 2026, 9:41 AM
Bonds rallied modestly in the overnight session. There were no notable spikes in volume or volatility--just a gradual grind that took 10yr yields roug...
Thu, Jan 22 2026, 4:07 PM
Bonds Erase Most of The Overnight Weakness
Thursday could be viewed two ways. On one hand, bonds lost ground...
Thu, Jan 22 2026, 3:40 PM
Mortgage rates may not be as low as they were before the weekend's geopolitical headlines, but they've moved just a hair lower on each of the past two...
Thu, Jan 22 2026, 9:40 AM
Bonds found a bid along with stocks yesterday afternoon after Trump announced a "framework of a deal" on Greenland. Markets were much less interested...
Wed, Jan 21 2026, 3:45 PM
Bonds Recovering a Bit After "Framework of a Deal" on Greenland
Geopolitics have been front and center for f...
Wed, Jan 21 2026, 3:09 PM
Markets held more sideways overnight as traders awaited further geopolitical developments today surrounding Greenland. Both stocks and bonds lost grou...
Wed, Jan 21 2026, 10:47 AM
With mortgage rates right where they were 2 weeks ago, things could be worse. But after rising 20bps from last week's lows, things could also certainl...
Tue, Jan 20 2026, 4:52 PM
Range Breakout Intensifies. Chicken or Egg?
After months spent observing the same old range in the bond mark...
Tue, Jan 20 2026, 3:28 PM
Mortgage rates jumped sharply higher on Tuesday in response to weakness driven by geopolitical events and overseas financial markets. After hitting lo...
Tue, Jan 20 2026, 9:36 AM
As Trump's Greenland aspirations continue unabated, measurable fallout is increasing. Part of the strategy is increased tariffs. EU is also planning/t...
Fri, Jan 16 2026, 4:28 PM
10yr Yields Finally Break The Range
Despite an absence of market movers on the calendar, bonds found a reaso...
Fri, Jan 16 2026, 4:06 PM
Don't stress out. If we ignore the past 5 days, today's mortgage rates are still the lowest since early 2023. That said, they're up a bit from last w...
Fri, Jan 16 2026, 10:38 AM
Last week reinforced the lesson anything can happen in the bond market--even with less than an hour left on an otherwise uneventful day. There's no wa...
Thu, Jan 15 2026, 4:32 PM
Data-Driven Weakness
It was a reasonably straightforward day for the bond market. Trading was flat overnight...
Thu, Jan 15 2026, 3:25 PM
Mortgage rates moved modestly lower for the average lender today, but higher for others. The distinction is whether the lender in question made a late...
Thu, Jan 15 2026, 8:40 AM
The weekly jobless claims data (not to be confused with the big monthly jobs report) is hit and miss when it comes to its propensity to move the bond ...
Wed, Jan 14 2026, 3:57 PM
Some Asymmetric Risk When it Comes to Locking vs Floating
Bonds improved today mostly in response to heavy s...
Wed, Jan 14 2026, 3:27 PM
Trading levels in the bond market directly impact the rates that mortgage lenders can offer. This is why rates moved so much lower after last week's n...
Wed, Jan 14 2026, 8:58 AM
10yr Treasury futures volumes spiked about 5 times higher in the 2 minutes following yesterday's CPI than in the 2 minutes following this morning's PP...
Tue, Jan 13 2026, 4:46 PM
CPI Helped Bonds Avoid Losing Ground
Bonds began the day in slightly weaker territory and managed to flip in...
Tue, Jan 13 2026, 3:25 PM
According to our chart of MND's mortgage rate index, 30yr fixed rates bottomed at 6.01% yesterday, but that's because the chart logs the day's latest ...
Tue, Jan 13 2026, 10:00 AM
CPI came out just a bit lower than expected with the monthly core at 0.2 vs 0.3 and annual core at 2.6 vs 2.7. The unrounded numbers were closer to f...
Mon, Jan 12 2026, 4:16 PM
Incidental Weakness Ahead of CPI Data
Bonds were marginally weaker on Monday with no obvious scapegoats in s...
Mon, Jan 12 2026, 3:44 PM
Mortgage rates are either higher or lower today, depending on the lender in question. Some lenders raised rates on Friday afternoon in response to wea...
Mon, Jan 12 2026, 10:29 AM
The most important-sounding news over the weekend was last night's subpoena of Fed Chair Powell over statements made to congress regarding the Fed's b...
Fri, Jan 9 2026, 4:16 PM
Wild Ride For MBS as Traders Digest New Developments
We may have been looking to the jobs report as this wee...
Fri, Jan 9 2026, 1:56 PM
On a week where the mortgage market was most likely to experience volatility due to Friday's jobs report, Thursday afternoon's surprise announcement o...
Fri, Jan 9 2026, 11:12 AM
On Thursday afternoon with less than an hour left to trade, Trump announced he would be directing his representatives to buy $200bln in mortgage-backe...
Fri, Jan 9 2026, 8:40 AM
The jobs report came out mixed with payrolls falling 10k short of the 60k forecast and the unemployment rate ticking down to 4.4% vs a 4.5% forecast. ...
Thu, Jan 8 2026, 4:27 PM
Mostly Quiet Ahead of Friday's Jobs Report
Bonds lost a bit of ground on Thursday with most of the weakness ...
Thu, Jan 8 2026, 4:05 PM
Mortgage rates were just a hair higher for the average lender on Thursday. The underlying bond market lost some ground following a stronger weekly Job...
Thu, Jan 8 2026, 9:23 AM
US bonds have been taking clear cues from Europe in overnight trading recently. Today's example involved a 3bp sell-off on both sides of the Atlantic....
Wed, Jan 7 2026, 5:02 PM
Ultimately Underwhelming Despite Seemingly Significant Data
There was certainly the potential for volatility...
Wed, Jan 7 2026, 4:09 PM
Wednesday had the potential to cause bigger volatility for rates due to the confluence of several important economic reports. If that data had been lo...
Wed, Jan 7 2026, 8:45 AM
Bonds rallied steadily overnight with more of the gains aligning with a data-driven bond rally in Europe. The overnight move brought 10yr yields rough...
