Today, 10:36 AM
Bonds are rallying, and we have no objection to that. Reasons are simple and familiar enough that there's no sense in over-analyzing them. Newswires h...
Mon, Aug 10 2026, 4:00 PM
Issuance and Oil Strike Back
Oil prices continue to ebb and flow in concert with the Iran war news cycle. Th...
Mon, Aug 10 2026, 3:32 PM
As of last Friday, average top-tier mortgage rates hit their lowest levels since July 20th. If they'd managed to drop even 0.01% today, it would have ...
Mon, Aug 10 2026, 10:32 AM
Recent experience suggests the safest assumption about oil prices and bond yields is that they will pop and drop with reasonable regularity. In other ...
Fri, Aug 7 2026, 5:21 PM
Not Quite The Rally You'd Expect, But a Rally Nonetheless
Today's vitals might be a bit confusing at first g...
Fri, Aug 7 2026, 4:58 PM
Mortgage rates dropped moderately today after the latest jobs report showed much lower jobs created than expected. The monthly jobs report is one of ...
Fri, Aug 7 2026, 9:05 AM
Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) FELL 23k versus an 80k forecast. Last month was revised down as well. From a traditional market-watching perspective, this is ...
Thu, Aug 6 2026, 3:05 PM
Almost Like Clockwork
Almost like clockwork, after several days spent mostly rallying on a headline-driven d...
Thu, Aug 6 2026, 2:08 PM
Mortgage rates rose modestly on Thursday, with multiple lenders making mid-day adjustments in response to bond market volatility. Bonds remain highly ...
Thu, Aug 6 2026, 11:04 AM
It's as good of a day as any to revisit our primer on corporate debt issuance given that it's having an impact on bonds today. Alphabet announced a $...
Wed, Aug 5 2026, 3:28 PM
Bonds Shake Off Mid-Day Weakness to Hold Mostly Steady
Bonds took a break from their recent trend of moderat...
Wed, Aug 5 2026, 3:11 PM
The bond market and mortgage rates have been on the move lower recently after hitting longer term highs at the end of July. Today offered a break from...
Wed, Aug 5 2026, 8:55 AM
With the potential for a Hormuz deal floated earlier in the week, a more substantive announcement remains the biggest opportunity for the bond market ...
Tue, Aug 4 2026, 3:29 PM
Solid Showing For Logical Reasons
Money flooded back into both sides of the market in a major way (albeit mo...
Tue, Aug 4 2026, 3:01 PM
Mortgage rates were a bit hesitant to follow the bond market's advice yesterday. Specifically, bonds rallied (i.e. bond prices moved higher and yields...
Tue, Aug 4 2026, 9:39 AM
This morning is offering another installment of hope for some form of progress in Iran. In today's case, it was Bessent floating the notion of possibl...
Mon, Aug 3 2026, 3:52 PM
Sideways and Stronger, But Risks Remain
Monday was "nice." Bonds rallied more than a little bit and held tho...
Mon, Aug 3 2026, 3:27 PM
Mortgage rates had a tough day on Friday, largely in response to bond market volatility surrounding heavy forex trading as a part of US/Japan efforts ...
Mon, Aug 3 2026, 10:25 AM
Bonds opened the trading session in much stronger territory, following the drop in oil prices associated with another round of de-escalation hopes in ...
Fri, Jul 31 2026, 4:08 PM
Esoteric Forex Drama Blasts Bonds, Maybe
Friday was very much NOT on the beaten path of typical bond market ...
Fri, Jul 31 2026, 1:36 PM
To be fair, mortgage rates haven't been far from their long-term highs in over a week, but today's 30yr fixed index level of 6.83% is functionally equ...
Fri, Jul 31 2026, 9:09 AM
Japan's Ministry of Finance (MOF) and central bank (BOJ) are a bit more closely linked than Treasury and the Fed. For example, the MOF can instruct th...
Thu, Jul 30 2026, 4:14 PM
Bullets Dodged
We've seen our fair share of bonds punishing the market on occasions where bond traders were ...
Thu, Jul 30 2026, 2:52 PM
It's not at all uncommon for mortgage rates to experience microscopic movement in either direction on any given day. In fact, it's probably the most c...
Thu, Jul 30 2026, 9:40 AM
This morning could have been much worse. The bond market could have continued spiraling on fear that it is now responsible for conducting monetary pol...
Wed, Jul 29 2026, 5:47 PM
What's Up With Today's Paradoxical Fed Reaction?
Tough day for the casual observer to try to make sense of w...
Wed, Jul 29 2026, 3:53 PM
Heading into today's Fed announcement, futures markets indicated roughly a 1 in 3 chance that the Fed would hike rates. They did not. This seems like ...
Wed, Jul 29 2026, 2:00 PM
The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 9 – 0 3 vote: The Committee decided to maintain the ta...
Wed, Jul 29 2026, 9:49 AM
The big news over the weekend was that the U.S. and Iran paused hostilities--something that led to 2 solid days of gains in the bond market. But in th...
Tue, Jul 28 2026, 4:04 PM
Giving Peace (And Bonds?) a Chance
Granted, it may be far less promising than some of the more conclusive he...
Tue, Jul 28 2026, 9:28 AM
Once again, bond yields dropped in the overnight session in concert with lower oil prices. Today's iteration is less swift than yesterday's, but after...
Mon, Jul 27 2026, 4:15 PM
Compared to Oil, Yields Not Quite as Willing to Drop
While the moment-to-moment correlation between bond yie...
Mon, Jul 27 2026, 2:44 PM
After bottoming out around 6.5% in late June, mortgage rates moved steadily higher this month, ultimately hitting 6.85% last Thursday--the highest lev...
Mon, Jul 27 2026, 8:51 AM
It's a pretty simple morning for the bond market (and many other markets). While there's no formal ceasefire, both the U.S. and Iran have indicated a ...
Fri, Jul 24 2026, 3:38 PM
How Technical Do You Want to Be?
There are always multiple technical lenses through which to view market mov...
Fri, Jul 24 2026, 3:06 PM
If you're just tuning in, mortgage rates had a rough day yesterday on top of a rough week overall. The result was the highest 30yr fixed rate in over ...
Fri, Jul 24 2026, 9:56 AM
It's a straightforward morning in the bond market. We're not seeing any of the sorts of "unseen hand" trading that accounted for the timing of yesterd...
Thu, Jul 23 2026, 4:55 PM
Bonds Not Keen To Catch Falling Knives
Oil lurched higher again overnight which kept generalized pressure on...
Thu, Jul 23 2026, 1:41 PM
Mortgage moved higher today, and while the jump was no larger than the one seen on Monday, both were 'above average' and both took rates in the wrong ...
Thu, Jul 23 2026, 9:23 AM
Welcome to post-Iran-War 2026. The only real relief for bonds since then was seen in June when there was hope that the war was over or at least windin...
Wed, Jul 22 2026, 4:52 PM
Just Another Reasonably Bad Day For Bonds
Bonds had a bad day for the 3rd time this week. The weakness was r...
Wed, Jul 22 2026, 3:47 PM
We have bad news and slightly less bad news. Starting with the latter, today's mortgage rates are only marginally higher than they were yesterday with...
Wed, Jul 22 2026, 10:18 AM
For those not interested in overcomplicating things, it's fair enough to simply observe the resurgence of hostilities in the Iran war prompting a resu...
Tue, Jul 21 2026, 5:06 PM
Headwinds, Cont'd
"Headwinds, Cont'd" could be apply to the entirety of 2022-2026 or just March-July of 2026...
Tue, Jul 21 2026, 3:29 PM
In late July, 2025, 30yr fixed rates embarked on an excellent adventure, moving down from 6.75% on July 31st to 5.99% by late February, 2026. Since th...
Tue, Jul 21 2026, 9:26 AM
While last week's CPI and PPI reports were unabashedly great news, the bond market spent Friday and yesterday gradually unwinding most of the resultin...
Mon, Jul 20 2026, 3:53 PM
New Week. Same Old Story
While we certainly CAN put short term market movement under a microscope and entert...
Mon, Jul 20 2026, 3:10 PM
Last week ended on a promising note with Friday's rates falling just barely below the previous Friday's levels. This was a relief after the top-tier 3...
Mon, Jul 20 2026, 10:12 AM
You've seen the "good vibes only" t-shirt perhaps? Bond traders left theirs at home this morning. That's unfortunate as there isn't much beyond vibes ...
Fri, Jul 17 2026, 4:35 PM
Roughly Unchanged After Gradual Weakness
Bonds ended the day roughly unchanged despite this morning's strong...
