Today, 4:11 PM
That Escalated Quickly
It would be easy to check in on the bond market at some point on Thursday afternoon a...
Today, 2:49 PM
After a somewhat hopeful day on Wednesday, mortgage rates are back to their same old tricks on Thursday. The tricks in question involve following the ...
Today, 9:21 AM
Bonds yields stayed lower than oil prices suggested yesterday afternoon. The same is true this morning, but oil prices have risen enough to lead bonds...
Wed, Mar 25 2026, 4:04 PM
Noticeably Lighter Volatility. Why?
Wednesday offered a welcome break from the pervasive volatility seen sin...
Wed, Mar 25 2026, 2:55 PM
The past 24 hours have seen multiple news stories with seemingly contradictory updates regarding the state of the Iran war. There's a ceasefire. There...
Wed, Mar 25 2026, 9:39 AM
There have been various comments from U.S. officials about ending the war for several weeks (i.e. on March 9th, Trump said the war could be over soon)...
Tue, Mar 24 2026, 4:03 PM
Juxtaposition of Escalation and De-escalation Keeping Bonds Volatile
Tuesday was notable for financial marke...
Tue, Mar 24 2026, 3:35 PM
March 2026 continues to be an unpleasant month for mortgage rates--a fact almost exclusively due to the Iran war. Even if the war were to end today, t...
Tue, Mar 24 2026, 9:43 AM
Even though there were doubts about their scope and impact, yesterday morning's headlines introduced the prospect of some sort of ceasefire in the Ira...
Mon, Mar 23 2026, 3:54 PM
Decent Gains Amid De-Escalation Headlines
Don't worry about what actually happened, who actually spoke to wh...
Mon, Mar 23 2026, 3:34 PM
Mortgage rates are dictated by bonds and bonds had a volatile day. During overnight trading hours, bonds suggested we should brace for the impact of e...
Mon, Mar 23 2026, 9:26 AM
Up until roughly 7am ET, it was a rough night for the bond market. 10yr yields had been selling off steadily throughout, hitting 4.443% by 6:45am. The...
Fri, Mar 20 2026, 5:21 PM
Global Bond Market in Reprice Mode
Around here, "reprice" typically refers to mid-day rate changes from mort...
Fri, Mar 20 2026, 2:53 PM
After hitting 5.99% as recently as February 27th, top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rates are back over 6.5% for the average lender today--the highest they...
Fri, Mar 20 2026, 9:46 AM
In the space of 2 days, central banks have completely stolen the spotlight from energy prices, but they have relied on energy prices to do so. More si...
Thu, Mar 19 2026, 3:48 PM
Volatile Day Thanks to Central Banks And, Eventually Oil
Bonds took a break from their lock-step tango with ...
Thu, Mar 19 2026, 8:55 AM
At almost any moment in March 2026, a glance at the "10yr vs oil price" chart has revealed sufficient correlation to blame the bond rout on the energy...
Wed, Mar 18 2026, 5:06 PM
Mortgage rates got hit 3 times on Wednesday, with the net effect being a move back up to the highest levels in several months. The average lender isn'...
Wed, Mar 18 2026, 5:04 PM
Bonds Weren't Prepared For Fed's Inflation Fears
If anything, you'd think the market would have been pricing...
Wed, Mar 18 2026, 2:00 PM
Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has sh...
Wed, Mar 18 2026, 9:14 AM
The Producer Price Index (PPI) was this morning's only big ticket econ data and calling it "big ticket" is a bit of a stretch. PPI often passes withou...
Tue, Mar 17 2026, 4:07 PM
Sleepy Pre-Fed Day, But Slightly Stronger
Bonds did something they haven't done in almost 3 weeks today. The...
Tue, Mar 17 2026, 3:07 PM
It was a fairly uneventful day for mortgage rates, but also a fairly decent one. The underlying bond market made modest gains even without meaningful ...
Tue, Mar 17 2026, 10:45 AM
Until the end of the Iran war, bond traders are keeping oil prices on their screens and comparing oil price movement against bond market movement as t...
Mon, Mar 16 2026, 3:24 PM
Simple, Strong Correlation With Oil Leaves Yields Lower
There's no sense in overcomplicating today's trading...
Mon, Mar 16 2026, 2:51 PM
Mortgage rates are based on bonds, and bonds spent last week bracing for the impact of higher energy prices. In the bond world, higher inflation beget...
Mon, Mar 16 2026, 10:38 AM
With no massive escalation in Iran over the weekend, oil prices trickled only modestly higher during Asian trading hours and began to recover during E...
Fri, Mar 13 2026, 4:40 PM
Just a Bit More Selling to End The Week
Nothing much new happened in the bond market today and that's not gr...
Fri, Mar 13 2026, 2:12 PM
March hasn't been a great month for mortgage rates and the past 3 days have been particularly bad. During that time, our daily rate index went from 6....
Fri, Mar 13 2026, 9:07 AM
There's a high bar for econ data to have any impact on bonds these days and that's especially true of inflation reports like this morning's PCE. Thank...
Thu, Mar 12 2026, 4:38 PM
War Protest: Bond Market Edition
There's no quicker way to classify the movement we've seen over the past 2 ...
Thu, Mar 12 2026, 3:55 PM
Mortgage rates are driven by the bond market. Although bonds only experienced moderate, steady weakness throughout the day, mortgage rates lurched hig...
Thu, Mar 12 2026, 11:30 AM
The bond market doesn't look like it can catch a break as long as war persists in Iran. If it's not oil, it's fertilizer, nat gas, military spending, ...
Wed, Mar 11 2026, 5:10 PM
General Selling Spree Continues
It hasn't exactly been perfectly linear, but the month of March has generall...
Wed, Mar 11 2026, 4:13 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher on Wednesday despite only a modest increase in oil prices. The latter is currently a part of any conversation about intere...
Wed, Mar 11 2026, 9:36 AM
There was a very high bar for today's CPI to cause any serious market reaction due to all the new inflationary impulses that may be created by record ...
Tue, Mar 10 2026, 4:21 PM
Afternoon Weakness in Bonds Despite Lower Oil Prices. Will CPI Matter?
Days like today are a problem for a "...
Tue, Mar 10 2026, 3:38 PM
Today's mortgage rates are lower when compared to yesterday's average prior to 4pm ET. Later in the afternoon, multiple lenders announced improvements...
Tue, Mar 10 2026, 9:07 AM
One major milestone in anyone's market-watching journey is when they learn that "the close" (close of business, closing bell, etc.) means different th...
Mon, Mar 9 2026, 2:55 PM
Big Round Trip in Oil Prices and Bond Yields
There was no denying the spillover from oil price volatility to...
Mon, Mar 9 2026, 2:24 PM
Mortgage rates began the day at the highest levels in a month. The move up versus Friday was only moderate, but Friday's levels were already fairly cl...
Mon, Mar 9 2026, 8:45 AM
Since the outbreak of the military operation in Iran, there have been varying levels of spillover from rising oil prices to the bond market. There hav...
Fri, Mar 6 2026, 4:39 PM
Oil Impact Ultimately Shunned in Favor of Jobs Report Implications
It was a super interesting day for the bo...
Fri, Mar 6 2026, 3:24 PM
Before this morning's jobs report was released, mortgage rates were on track to end the week at their highest levels in several weeks. This was due to...
Fri, Mar 6 2026, 9:29 AM
It's shaping up to be a frustrating day market watchers. Decades of experience tells us that bonds should rally fairly sharply on a day where nonfarm ...
Thu, Mar 5 2026, 3:32 PM
Dueling Narrative Leave Yields Higher Ahead of Jobs Report
In the overnight session yields followed oil pric...
Thu, Mar 5 2026, 3:02 PM
Mortgage rates bounced back up today as the underlying bond market continued the selling trend seen on 3 out of 4 days so far this week. In the overni...
Thu, Mar 5 2026, 9:24 AM
The bond market has already shown an indifference to this week's econ data as a market mover (even though we expect that to change with tomorrow's job...
Wed, Mar 4 2026, 3:31 PM
Economic data is one of the few consistent sources of motivation for interest rates in the mortgage world and beyond. In general, stronger data tends ...
Wed, Mar 4 2026, 8:41 AM
After 2 days of much higher volatility at the open, bonds are roughly unchanged so far this morning and the overnight session was noticeably calmer. T...
