Wed, Sep 16 2026, 6:08 PM
Huge Volatility After Fed, But The Coming Days Will Tell The Story
Bonds ended the day only modestly worse o...
Wed, Sep 16 2026, 2:00 PM
The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 9 12 – 3 0 vote: The Committee decided to maintain rais...
Wed, Sep 16 2026, 10:24 AM
There are perhaps no other Fed announcements in recent memory worthy of more anticipation than the one we'll get today. While some of the recent data ...
Tue, Sep 15 2026, 4:32 PM
Some Signs of Resilience But It's Still Anyone's Game
After several consecutive business days of abject unpl...
Tue, Sep 15 2026, 3:54 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher for the 6th day in a row on Tuesday and to the highest levels since January, 2025. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate is...
Tue, Sep 15 2026, 10:57 AM
With no meaningful econ data on tap today and no high stakes events, bonds are left to watch news headlines and attend to last-minute positioning goal...
Mon, Sep 14 2026, 3:52 PM
Decent Mid-Day Recovery But No Change to Bigger Picture
Monday wasn't too different from last Friday in that...
Mon, Sep 14 2026, 3:19 PM
On average, the top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate moved up to another new long-term high today of 7.17%. You'd have to go back to January, 2025 to see...
Mon, Sep 14 2026, 10:38 AM
Selling continues to be the path of least resistance for the bond market. Open interest data from Treasury futures suggests Friday's "short-covering" ...
Fri, Sep 11 2026, 5:29 PM
AM Rally Completely Erased By The Close
This morning's paradoxical rally lasted 30 whole minutes. Bonds turn...
Fri, Sep 11 2026, 3:24 PM
Looked at in a vacuum, and up until the last few hours of the day, Friday was no better or worse than the average day over the past several months. Co...
Fri, Sep 11 2026, 9:43 AM
We've been saying for a while that the longer end of the bond market really wants to see the Fed get serious about fighting inflation. This is why yie...
Thu, Sep 10 2026, 4:38 PM
Ugly Snowball Selling Thanks to Oil and Inflation Data
MBS lost nearly a full point by 4pm ET and 10yr yield...
Thu, Sep 10 2026, 2:44 PM
You may have seen other headlines today that reference 30yr fixed rates of 6.76%. Those stories would be citing Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey which...
Thu, Sep 10 2026, 9:18 AM
It's been a rough couple of days for the bond market. Yesterday, it was Bessent and the reaction to the Treasury buyback announcement. Today it is an ...
Wed, Sep 9 2026, 3:52 PM
Bonds to Bessent: Challenge Accepted
When the Yellen Treasury rolled out the buyback program in 2023/2024, t...
Wed, Sep 9 2026, 3:07 PM
What do mortgage rates have to do with Treasuries? Quite a lot, actually. U.S. Treasuries are the bills and bonds issued by the government. In additio...
Wed, Sep 9 2026, 10:30 AM
Not much is going on in terms of scheduled economic events until Thursday and Friday's PPI and CPI reports respectively. Those could be very big deals...
Tue, Sep 8 2026, 3:48 PM
Early Strength Gives Way to Steady Selling
Bonds started the day in fairly good shape with a rally at the op...
Tue, Sep 8 2026, 3:09 PM
Top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rates started the week right where they were on Friday for the average lender. At 6.89%, we're just a hair below the high...
Tue, Sep 8 2026, 9:46 AM
To be sure, bonds are still very tuned-in to oil price movement with a high level of moment-to-moment correlation. That dynamic has seen yields trade ...
Fri, Sep 4 2026, 4:53 PM
Surprisingly Light Selling Given The Econ Data
Today's market reaction to the big beat in NFP (162k vs 56k) ...
Fri, Sep 4 2026, 2:49 PM
Mortgage rates have a long and storied past with the monthly jobs report. Officially titled "The Employment Situation," the Bureau of Labor Statistics...
Fri, Sep 4 2026, 8:42 AM
The jobs count surged higher (162k vs 56k f'cast) in this morning's jobs report. While such wild divergences will have the masses crying foul, and whi...
Thu, Sep 3 2026, 4:24 PM
Still a Resilient Day Despite Afternoon Weakness
The day's most notable development, by far, was the speech ...
Thu, Sep 3 2026, 3:59 PM
Mortgage rates finally had a decent day on Thursday after spending the previous three days inching into the highest levels in more than a year. Part o...
Thu, Sep 3 2026, 9:56 AM
There were two separate positive developments for bonds this morning. The most obvious and actionable example was series of comments from Fed's Waller...
Wed, Sep 2 2026, 5:01 PM
Relatively Drama-Free Day
These things happen from time to time. The bond market finally had an uneventful d...
Wed, Sep 2 2026, 3:08 PM
First things first: when we reference average, daily, top-tier 30yr fixed rates, it is for an ideal scenario that rarely exists in the wild. The avera...
Wed, Sep 2 2026, 10:32 AM
Bonds were initially a hair weaker overnight but reversed course starting around 7am ET as oil prices fell. On the other hand, oil had already begun m...
Tue, Sep 1 2026, 4:50 PM
More War. More Selling
Tuesday was as straightforward as it was unpleasant for the bond market. Mid-day news...
Tue, Sep 1 2026, 4:02 PM
Fighting intensified today between the U.S. and Iran. Oil prices moved higher fairly quickly and bond yields followed. This has been a common pattern ...
Tue, Sep 1 2026, 9:45 AM
Bond yields broke long term highs yesterday and are moving slightly higher again today. In both cases, we're NOT seeing the same level of intraday cor...
Mon, Aug 31 2026, 5:00 PM
Technically a Breakout, But It Could Have Been Worse
10yr yields closed just under 4.74 at the end of July a...
Mon, Aug 31 2026, 4:02 PM
Bonds lost ground today, largely due to mechanical, month-end trading (i.e. not due to economic data, inflation, or news headlines). When bonds lose g...
Mon, Aug 31 2026, 10:13 AM
Bonds were actually a hair stronger at the open, but quickly tanked just after 8am. The nature of said tankage is strongly suggestive of month-end pos...
Fri, Aug 28 2026, 5:22 PM
Hawkish Read on Warsh Prompts Heavy Selling
Jackson Hole speeches are hit and miss when it comes to bond mar...
Fri, Aug 28 2026, 2:45 PM
Jackson Hole is a place in Wyoming, but it's also shorthand for an annual event where various central bankers get together and talk about monetary pol...
Fri, Aug 28 2026, 9:43 AM
In an attempt to not force another "Warsh" or "Jackson Hole" headline (because it's a coin flip as to whether it will matter), the calendar offers up ...
Thu, Aug 27 2026, 4:25 PM
Fairly Calm Despite Some Fuel Price Pressure; Warsh on Deck
To reiterate a sentiment from this morning, ther...
Thu, Aug 27 2026, 3:45 PM
Mortgage rates barely budged again on Thursday, but there was far less data to digest compared to Wednesday. Bonds (which dictate rates) were steady t...
Thu, Aug 27 2026, 10:16 AM
While it may end up being a complete non-event, the bond market is counting the hours until Friday's Warsh appearance at Jackson Hole. There's nothing...
Wed, Aug 26 2026, 4:23 PM
Some Pros and Cons in Today's Weakness
Bonds lost ground today, but it wasn't necessarily an unequivocally b...
Wed, Aug 26 2026, 3:29 PM
Intraday volatility in the bond market can make it tricky to track day over day changes in mortgage rates. Lenders publish the day's first rates based...
Wed, Aug 26 2026, 8:47 AM
To be fair, not all of the PCE data was higher than expected, but none of the top line numbers were lower than expected. Core PCE was on target (notab...
Tue, Aug 25 2026, 4:33 PM
Bonds Rally on Peace Deal Hopes
The day ended as it began: with bond yields and oil prices dropping in uniso...
Tue, Aug 25 2026, 3:41 PM
Fuel prices continue dictating most of the day-to-day momentum for interest rates and today was a notable example. Early this morning, news reports su...
Tue, Aug 25 2026, 10:06 AM
No point in wasting time/words on analysis when cause and effect remains so simple. After news regarding potential progress is peace negotiations, an ...
Mon, Aug 24 2026, 4:56 PM
Tune Out The Noise (Part 2)
Last week, when Treasury announced higher per-operation limits for the buyback p...
Mon, Aug 24 2026, 3:59 PM
Mortgage rates are based on bonds, but whereas bonds improved slightly from Friday's levels, mortgage rates are microscopically higher for the average...
