Tue, Nov 18 2025, 4:46 PM
Modest Gains After Mid-Day Volatility
With only a few exceptions, bonds have been a rudderless ship during t...
Tue, Nov 18 2025, 4:11 PM
With economic data being the most consistent source of motivation for rates, the market has been eager for it to return with the reopening of the gove...
Tue, Nov 18 2025, 10:22 AM
We've seen a clumsy, confused return of various economic reports this morning (several reports were no previously announced with rescheduled release d...
Mon, Nov 17 2025, 4:07 PM
Uneventful Monday; MBS Underperform
In the bigger picture, bonds were flat on Monday without any major volat...
Mon, Nov 17 2025, 3:33 PM
The bond market (which dictates rates) was roughly unchanged over the weekend. As such, it's no surprise to see mortgage rates right in line with Frid...
Mon, Nov 17 2025, 9:30 AM
The jobs report (for September) will be released on Thursday. It is the first major econ data to re-appear after the shutdown. Notably, that's because...
Fri, Nov 14 2025, 4:58 PM
Gains Completely Erased; Stocks Looking More Culpable
Viewed in a vacuum, this mornings 7-8am rally remains ...
Fri, Nov 14 2025, 4:10 PM
Mortgage rates were only modestly higher on Friday, but because of the narrow prevailing range and previous increases this week, that brings us right ...
Fri, Nov 14 2025, 9:24 AM
Bonds were sideways to slightly weaker in the overnight session. 4am to 7am was exceptionally flat and narrow. This is notable because stocks had don...
Thu, Nov 13 2025, 4:02 PM
Moderately Weaker With Only The Reopening to Blame
The government reopened on Thursday. Both stocks and bon...
Thu, Nov 13 2025, 3:25 PM
Mortgage rates rose somewhat sharply following the late October Fed meeting but have been in a relatively narrow range so far in November. The range ...
Thu, Nov 13 2025, 8:06 AM
First off, the market expected a shutdown resolution by mid November and especially since this past weekend. That's the reason today's news means ess...
Wed, Nov 12 2025, 4:10 PM
Bonds Look Past 10yr Auction to Maintain Focus on Jobs
While there were no big ticket economic reports on to...
Wed, Nov 12 2025, 3:15 PM
Mortgage rates are based on bond market movement and bonds are much stronger today compared to Monday. Although bonds were closed yesterday for the Ve...
Wed, Nov 12 2025, 10:21 AM
ADP has been in the monthly data game for a long time when it comes to payroll counts, but their weekly report is the new kid on the econ data block. ...
Mon, Nov 10 2025, 4:27 PM
Counting Down to Ending The Shutdown After Tuesday's Holiday Closure
Bonds were weaker in the overnight sess...
Mon, Nov 10 2025, 3:39 PM
Mortgage rates went into the weekend with a small cushion thanks to movement in the bond market on Friday. Specifically, bonds improved after mortgage...
Mon, Nov 10 2025, 11:18 AM
If members of the House can make it back to D.C. in sufficient numbers, there's a real possibility that the shutdown will end this week. Some marketpl...
Fri, Nov 7 2025, 2:24 PM
Wednesday's mortgage rates were the highest in roughly a month and very close to the highest levels in 2 months. This followed stronger economic data...
Fri, Nov 7 2025, 10:51 AM
Although bonds began the day in roughly unchanged territory, they began losing ground shortly thereafter. Things changed at the 9:30am NYSE open as st...
Thu, Nov 6 2025, 5:14 PM
Have Bonds Found Their Post-Fed Footing?
Looked at one way, bonds have been in a moderate selling trend sinc...
Thu, Nov 6 2025, 4:29 PM
As of yesterday afternoon, mortgage rates were right in line with the highest levels in more than a month. The upward momentum was largely a product o...
Thu, Nov 6 2025, 10:49 AM
The shutdown has not only placed more emphasis on the alternative data that was already in the rotation, but also fueled interest in new sources. One ...
Wed, Nov 5 2025, 4:08 PM
A common recent refrain is that the bond market (which dictates interest rates) is having to make do without many of the most important regularly-sche...
Wed, Nov 5 2025, 10:28 AM
Today is a rare day when it comes to economic data. The first Wednesday of any given month is often an important one for economic data because ISM Se...
Tue, Nov 4 2025, 4:49 PM
Wednesday More Likely to Take Cues From Econ Data
Bonds benefited from heavy stock selling late in the overn...
Tue, Nov 4 2025, 4:33 PM
The average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate was technically 0.01% higher than yesterday, but that's the smallest possible detected move. It's just ...
Tue, Nov 4 2025, 9:53 AM
It doesn't always work like this, but today's overnight session saw the classic "conventional wisdom" trade with stocks prices and bond yields falling...
Mon, Nov 3 2025, 4:00 PM
Light Volatility After Initial Losses
The first day of the new month began with some potential excitement, a...
Mon, Nov 3 2025, 3:32 PM
Up until last week's Fed announcement, the average 30yr fixed mortgage rate was at the lowest levels in more than a year (in many cases, matching the ...
Mon, Nov 3 2025, 11:03 AM
Bonds were moderately weaker in the overnight session with most of the selling arriving at 7:56am ET when Alphabet filed for a large corporate bond of...
Fri, Oct 31 2025, 3:53 PM
Sideways Overall Despite Hawkish Fed Speakers
Although there was some mid-day volatility (early buying follo...
Fri, Oct 31 2025, 3:43 PM
After hitting the highest level in several weeks on Thursday, mortgage rates managed to move moderately lower on Friday. Counterpoint: Friday's rates ...
Fri, Oct 31 2025, 10:29 AM
With the shutdown ongoing, and the big ticket econ data vanished into the void, there's little for the bond market to do apart from get its books in o...
Thu, Oct 30 2025, 4:59 PM
Uneventfully Flat After Initial Weakness
The bond market only had a little more selling to do thanks to the ...
Thu, Oct 30 2025, 3:42 PM
Every now and then, a Thursday comes along where we have to set the record straight on what is actually going on with mortgage rates. That's because F...
Thu, Oct 30 2025, 10:22 AM
The simplest way to understand yesterday's post-Fed sell-off is as follows. The market's enthusiasm for 3 Fed rate cuts in 2025 had grown a bit too la...
Wed, Oct 29 2025, 4:02 PM
Today was not a foregone conclusion and there was no way to know ahead of time that it would end like this, but the outcome is exactly why we've gone ...
Wed, Oct 29 2025, 3:12 PM
Another Hawkish Powell Press Conference Harshes Bonds' Mellow
The Fed cut rates and ended QT. Neither were ...
Wed, Oct 29 2025, 2:01 PM
Recent Available indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year has been expanding at a moderate pa...
Wed, Oct 29 2025, 11:50 AM
Bonds are a hair weaker this morning with losses showing up in the overnight session and mostly flattening out in domestic trading. Without any big t...
Tue, Oct 28 2025, 4:59 PM
Modestly Stronger Ahead of Fed Day
Without any market moving econ data on Tuesday, bonds finally managed to ...
Tue, Oct 28 2025, 4:11 PM
Rates have been flirting with long term lows over the past 2 weeks, but today made it official. Today's average top tier 30yr fixed rate perfectly ma...
Tue, Oct 28 2025, 10:57 AM
First off, bonds are doing fine this morning. 10yr yields are technically higher on the day, but only when compared to yesterday's 5pm levels. As fa...
Mon, Oct 27 2025, 3:41 PM
Bonds Improve After Treasury Auctions
Treasury auctions don't always cause a reaction in bonds, but they did...
Mon, Oct 27 2025, 3:15 PM
Mortgage rates fell to the lowest levels in a month last Tuesday and barely budged through the rest of the week. Now, at the start of the new week, th...
Mon, Oct 27 2025, 10:34 AM
As the shutdown continues, econ data remains sparse. This makes for smaller, more range-bound movement overall with last week making a decent case to ...
Fri, Oct 24 2025, 4:47 PM
Decent Recovery After AM Backtracking
CPI data was a mixed bag for bonds. Top-line numbers fueled a quick r...
Fri, Oct 24 2025, 2:45 PM
This morning brought the release of the much-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI). This is one of the two biggest inflation reports from the U.S. go...
Fri, Oct 24 2025, 9:47 AM
In terms of topline results, CPI was bond friendly with the core at .223 vs .3 and the headline at 0.3 vs 0.4 in monthly terms. Annually, we're runni...
