Tue, Jun 9 2026, 3:42 PM
Mortgage rates put an end to the most recent spike that followed last Friday's jobs report. Most of the upward movement happened on Friday, but yester...
Tue, Jun 9 2026, 9:51 AM
For the second day in a row , bonds are starting out in modestly stronger territory, but let's hope we don't repeat yesterday's performance. That left...
Mon, Jun 8 2026, 5:18 PM
Bonds Faded in the Afternoon Despite Oil Price Recovery
Oil prices and bond yields started the overnight ses...
Mon, Jun 8 2026, 4:33 PM
The average top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate rose 0.08% last Friday after the jobs report came in much stronger than expected. Today added another 0....
Mon, Jun 8 2026, 9:57 AM
Things got a bit worse before they got better over the weekend. 10yr yields were as high as 4.58% in overnight trading, but are now roughly unchanged ...
Fri, Jun 5 2026, 4:42 PM
At Least It Didn't Get Much Worse After The Initial Rout
If you had to find something reassuring to say abou...
Fri, Jun 5 2026, 2:29 PM
Over the past three months, mortgage rate movement has been driven primarily by developments in the Iran war. It's not that war, itself, is a consider...
Fri, Jun 5 2026, 10:08 AM
Buzz has been growing around the labor market for the past several months, but today's jobs report went the extra mile to make it official. The job ma...
Thu, Jun 4 2026, 4:12 PM
Modest Gains Maintained After Intraday Slippage
Slippage is a bit less severe than leakage. Neither of them ...
Thu, Jun 4 2026, 3:13 PM
After hitting long-term highs on May 19th, mortgage rates dropped somewhat quickly by May 26th. Ever since then, they've been moving back and forth in...
Thu, Jun 4 2026, 9:14 AM
The following newswire hit about an hour before the open: TRUMP: US IN THE MIDDLE OF FINAL NEGOTIATIONS TO END IRAN WAR. Bond yields and oil prices h...
Wed, Jun 3 2026, 3:47 PM
Minimal Change After Overnight Volatility
War headlines struck back in the overnight session. Specifically, ...
Wed, Jun 3 2026, 3:03 PM
Imagine being stuck at home watching TV for 3 months and only being able to stream one show. That's been the case for the bond market (which dictates ...
Wed, Jun 3 2026, 9:13 AM
Iran launched missiles at several U.S. allies yesterday afternoon and oil prices responded accordingly with a move back up to May 22nd levels. Treasur...
Tue, Jun 2 2026, 4:59 PM
Uncommonly Uneventful Day
No one will accuse us of clickbait titles today, or even clickbait analysis. There...
Tue, Jun 2 2026, 3:59 PM
It was an uneventful day for the bond market and, thus, mortgage rates. Unlike the average trading day of late, there were no conspicuous war-related ...
Tue, Jun 2 2026, 10:49 AM
We saw big ticket econ data move the needle a bit last week and have thus been prepared for this week's big ticket reports to have a similar chance to...
Mon, Jun 1 2026, 3:57 PM
Yields End Higher Despite Some Mid-Day Solace
As has been almost constantly the case for the past few months...
Mon, Jun 1 2026, 3:33 PM
Following last week's relatively strong move to the lowest levels since May 14th, mortgage rates bounced slightly higher to start the news week. The m...
Mon, Jun 1 2026, 9:35 AM
Last week's focus for war-related headlines involved various attempts to hone in on just how close we were to a confirmed preliminary peace deal. The ...
Fri, May 29 2026, 4:02 PM
Markets Were Skeptical of Mid-Day Peace Headlines and That Was a Good Instinct
A few hours into the trading ...
Fri, May 29 2026, 1:34 PM
While there are still a few hours left in the trading day, it's a near certainty that this week will end with mortgage rates at meaningfully lower lev...
Fri, May 29 2026, 10:03 AM
Bonds were flat overnight for a change, with just a bit of 2-way volatility but no notable directional movement. Without any new or interesting war-re...
Thu, May 28 2026, 3:46 PM
Spoiler Alert: Yes, It Was War Headlines
Need a way to explain overnight weakness in the bond market? War he...
Thu, May 28 2026, 3:08 PM
We were close yesterday and we officially arrived today. Mortgage rates may still be elevated compared to almost all of the past 10 months, but they'r...
Thu, May 28 2026, 9:31 AM
There's a supertanker load of data this morning with some apparently interesting results, but the market remains focused primarily on supertankers bei...
Wed, May 27 2026, 4:03 PM
In a Shocking Twist, Bonds Relive Another Groundhog Day
The present week began on a stronger note thanks to ...
Wed, May 27 2026, 3:47 PM
Early in the trading session, the bond market began improving in response to more updates on a potential Iran peace deal. When bonds improve, rates fa...
Wed, May 27 2026, 8:50 AM
It seems that we've seen slight variations on the same peace deal news for the past several days. That's probably because there is an actual peace dea...
Tue, May 26 2026, 3:32 PM
Good Reminder That The Market Gets to Decide What Matters
If oil, Treasuries, stocks, and the rest of the ma...
Tue, May 26 2026, 2:48 PM
Although mortgage rates are still relatively close to their highest levels in 9 months, they continue moving lower after hitting those highs as the be...
Tue, May 26 2026, 9:35 AM
On Sunday evening, the NYT ran a story that the U.S. and Iran had agreed in principle to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The key distinct...
Fri, May 22 2026, 3:05 PM
Bonds Scratch Out a Win Amid Dueling Headlines
Bonds remain surprisingly willing to react to the most seemin...
Fri, May 22 2026, 1:19 PM
Mortgage lenders rely on the bond market to generate mortgage rates. In addition to being fully closed on Monday for Memorial Day, bonds also close 3 ...
Fri, May 22 2026, 8:59 AM
Bonds are starting the session at the best levels of the week with modest overnight gains getting a small boost from news that Pakistan's army chief (...
Thu, May 21 2026, 4:05 PM
Peace Deal Rumors Make For Mid-Day Reversal
Bonds started the day in fairly forgettable and slightly weaker ...
Thu, May 21 2026, 2:40 PM
After posting a decent recovery from 9-month highs yesterday, it looked like mortgage rates were destined to bounce back toward slightly higher levels...
Thu, May 21 2026, 9:19 AM
Bonds spent most of the overnight session moving sideways to slightly stronger, but everything changed at 6:20am. That's when news broke regarding a s...
Wed, May 20 2026, 4:19 PM
Full Reversal And Then Some
Bonds more than made up from Tuesday's rout with a massive rally on Wednesday. U...
Wed, May 20 2026, 2:58 PM
Wednesday brought some much-needed relief for the mortgage market after rates surged to new 9 month highs of 6.75% yesterday. Whereas that rate spike ...
Wed, May 20 2026, 10:24 AM
Tuesday's massive wave of bond-specific weakness still has the analytical community scratching its collective head. Our contacts are either saying not...
Tue, May 19 2026, 4:57 PM
Whales Making Waves in Treasury Futures
Nerd alert: there's no way to discuss what happened in the bond mark...
Tue, May 19 2026, 3:28 PM
It was another rough day for the bond market and, thus, for interest rates. Investors aggressively sold bonds in the first 2 hours of trading, taking ...
Tue, May 19 2026, 9:40 AM
Ever since the initial 2 week ceasefire was announced in the Iran war, the bond market has adhered to trend channels that align with either de-escalat...
Mon, May 18 2026, 4:18 PM
Bombarded by Headlines, But Little-Changed
Monday's trading session ended up being an exercise in headline-w...
Mon, May 18 2026, 3:34 PM
Mortgage rates hit their highest levels in more than 9 months at the end of last week. Now today, they've edged slightly higher yet again with the ave...
Mon, May 18 2026, 10:36 AM
Bonds began the overnight session by drifting somewhat higher in yield. The 10yr hit 4.63 before recovering modestly just before domestic trading bega...
Fri, May 15 2026, 5:12 PM
Bonds Continued Drifting Weaker Throughout The Day
Nothing new or interesting happened during the course of ...
Fri, May 15 2026, 12:40 PM
Mortgage rates are driven by bonds and the bond market hoped to see more evidence of shift toward peace during the 2-day Trump/Xi meeting in China. As...
Fri, May 15 2026, 9:19 AM
Far too many market participants were apparently hoping that some sort of positive news on the war would be somehow facilitated by the Trump/Xi summit...
