Tue, Sep 1 2026, 4:02 PM
Fighting intensified today between the U.S. and Iran. Oil prices moved higher fairly quickly and bond yields followed. This has been a common pattern ...
Tue, Sep 1 2026, 9:45 AM
Bond yields broke long term highs yesterday and are moving slightly higher again today. In both cases, we're NOT seeing the same level of intraday cor...
Mon, Aug 31 2026, 5:00 PM
Technically a Breakout, But It Could Have Been Worse
10yr yields closed just under 4.74 at the end of July a...
Mon, Aug 31 2026, 4:02 PM
Bonds lost ground today, largely due to mechanical, month-end trading (i.e. not due to economic data, inflation, or news headlines). When bonds lose g...
Mon, Aug 31 2026, 10:13 AM
Bonds were actually a hair stronger at the open, but quickly tanked just after 8am. The nature of said tankage is strongly suggestive of month-end pos...
Fri, Aug 28 2026, 5:22 PM
Hawkish Read on Warsh Prompts Heavy Selling
Jackson Hole speeches are hit and miss when it comes to bond mar...
Fri, Aug 28 2026, 2:45 PM
Jackson Hole is a place in Wyoming, but it's also shorthand for an annual event where various central bankers get together and talk about monetary pol...
Fri, Aug 28 2026, 9:43 AM
In an attempt to not force another "Warsh" or "Jackson Hole" headline (because it's a coin flip as to whether it will matter), the calendar offers up ...
Thu, Aug 27 2026, 4:25 PM
Fairly Calm Despite Some Fuel Price Pressure; Warsh on Deck
To reiterate a sentiment from this morning, ther...
Thu, Aug 27 2026, 3:45 PM
Mortgage rates barely budged again on Thursday, but there was far less data to digest compared to Wednesday. Bonds (which dictate rates) were steady t...
Thu, Aug 27 2026, 10:16 AM
While it may end up being a complete non-event, the bond market is counting the hours until Friday's Warsh appearance at Jackson Hole. There's nothing...
Wed, Aug 26 2026, 4:23 PM
Some Pros and Cons in Today's Weakness
Bonds lost ground today, but it wasn't necessarily an unequivocally b...
Wed, Aug 26 2026, 3:29 PM
Intraday volatility in the bond market can make it tricky to track day over day changes in mortgage rates. Lenders publish the day's first rates based...
Wed, Aug 26 2026, 8:47 AM
To be fair, not all of the PCE data was higher than expected, but none of the top line numbers were lower than expected. Core PCE was on target (notab...
Tue, Aug 25 2026, 4:33 PM
Bonds Rally on Peace Deal Hopes
The day ended as it began: with bond yields and oil prices dropping in uniso...
Tue, Aug 25 2026, 3:41 PM
Fuel prices continue dictating most of the day-to-day momentum for interest rates and today was a notable example. Early this morning, news reports su...
Tue, Aug 25 2026, 10:06 AM
No point in wasting time/words on analysis when cause and effect remains so simple. After news regarding potential progress is peace negotiations, an ...
Mon, Aug 24 2026, 4:56 PM
Tune Out The Noise (Part 2)
Last week, when Treasury announced higher per-operation limits for the buyback p...
Mon, Aug 24 2026, 3:59 PM
Mortgage rates are based on bonds, but whereas bonds improved slightly from Friday's levels, mortgage rates are microscopically higher for the average...
Mon, Aug 24 2026, 11:13 AM
Once again, Treasury is out with news about bond buying plans with two officials saying the Treasury General Account (TGA) could be used to fund long-...
Fri, Aug 21 2026, 3:36 PM
Incidental Weakness. Bigger Considerations on The Horizon
Without any data or compelling market movers, bond...
Fri, Aug 21 2026, 2:35 PM
For all practical purposes, Friday's mortgage rates were unchanged versus Thursday's, but if we're splitting hairs, the average lender rose 0.01% to 6...
Fri, Aug 21 2026, 9:29 AM
Bonds were a hair stronger overnight and are now a hair weaker at 9:15am ET. They may flip back and forth a few more times before the close. Ultimatel...
Thu, Aug 20 2026, 5:08 PM
Tune Out The Noise
Yesterday's Treasury buyback announcement and today's comments from Bessent make for good...
Thu, Aug 20 2026, 4:38 PM
While Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey may show rates moving slightly lower this week, today's rates are actually higher than they were at th...
Thu, Aug 20 2026, 9:34 AM
The correlation between bonds and fuel prices was already creeping back into the picture yesterday. After the Treasury buyback announcement got all of...
Wed, Aug 19 2026, 4:18 PM
AM Rally Ultimately Sticks With Help From Oil
To be clear, most of today's rally is attributable to the news...
Wed, Aug 19 2026, 3:43 PM
Mortgage rates dropped on Wednesday due to a combination of lower oil prices and the announcement of changes to Treasury's bond buyback program. The ...
Wed, Aug 19 2026, 10:21 AM
At 8:30am, Treasury announced it would double the size of the existing buyback program from $2 to $4 billion for 10-30yr maturities. This sounds like ...
Tue, Aug 18 2026, 4:25 PM
Boring Day But At Least Bonds Turned Green
Tuesday offered remarkably of interest or consequence for the bon...
Tue, Aug 18 2026, 3:33 PM
Mortgage rates rose for the third straight day on Tuesday with the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate moving up a modest 0.02% to 6.75%. Notably, the bo...
Tue, Aug 18 2026, 10:26 AM
Big picture momentum has been calmly but clearly skewed toward higher yields for almost 10 months. There have been a few attempts to bounce at technic...
Mon, Aug 17 2026, 3:00 PM
War Headlines Pushing Oil and Yields Higher
Some summertime Mondays are slow and uneventful. Some see brisk ...
Mon, Aug 17 2026, 1:27 PM
After ending last week near the lowest level since July 17th, mortgage rates are moving up to start the new week. Motivations are familiar. Escalation...
Mon, Aug 17 2026, 9:43 AM
It's just another day in post-Iran-war 2026. As such, bonds are taking cues from fuel price volatility which is in turn taking cues from the latest wa...
Fri, Aug 14 2026, 2:56 PM
First, the bad news: mortgage rates ended the day just a hair higher compared to Thursday, but the change was so small that many borrowers will see li...
Fri, Aug 14 2026, 10:01 AM
Based on a few research papers that have attempted to quantify the impact of various economic reports as well as the general consensus among economic ...
Thu, Aug 13 2026, 5:10 PM
Solid Data-Driven Gains
Thursday was a fairly straightforward session for bonds. Yields fell modestly overni...
Thu, Aug 13 2026, 4:07 PM
Mortgage rates dropped noticeably on Thursday on a combination of lower oil prices and a lower inflation reading via the Producer Price Index (PPI). R...
Thu, Aug 13 2026, 9:51 AM
If nothing else, this morning offers confirmation of just how nervous the market is about inflation. The producer price index barely beat its forecast...
Wed, Aug 12 2026, 5:09 PM
Bonds End Flat After Front-Running The Decent Data
We absolutely hate the term "front-running" because it ca...
Wed, Aug 12 2026, 4:48 PM
Mortgage lenders set rates around 10am ET every day, but the bond market dictates the day to day changes, and bonds were on the move throughout the ov...
Wed, Aug 12 2026, 9:44 AM
It would have been hard for CPI to be any more boring. All key metrics came in perfectly in line with forecasts. Supercore (core minus housing), was 0...
Tue, Aug 11 2026, 4:56 PM
Bonds Looking Somewhat Optimistic Ahead of CPI
Bonds improved modestly on Tuesday which is actually a somewh...
Tue, Aug 11 2026, 4:30 PM
It ended up being a remarkably uneventful day for mortgage rates. Some lenders were slightly higher than yesterday. Others were roughly unchanged. The...
Tue, Aug 11 2026, 10:36 AM
Bonds are rallying, and we have no objection to that. Reasons are simple and familiar enough that there's no sense in over-analyzing them. Newswires h...
Mon, Aug 10 2026, 4:00 PM
Issuance and Oil Strike Back
Oil prices continue to ebb and flow in concert with the Iran war news cycle. Th...
Mon, Aug 10 2026, 3:32 PM
As of last Friday, average top-tier mortgage rates hit their lowest levels since July 20th. If they'd managed to drop even 0.01% today, it would have ...
Mon, Aug 10 2026, 10:32 AM
Recent experience suggests the safest assumption about oil prices and bond yields is that they will pop and drop with reasonable regularity. In other ...
Fri, Aug 7 2026, 5:21 PM
Not Quite The Rally You'd Expect, But a Rally Nonetheless
Today's vitals might be a bit confusing at first g...
