Thu, Aug 7 2025, 9:49 AM
The week's last hope for any signs of life from economic data has come and gone with this morning's Jobless Claims. To be fair, there was never reall...
Wed, Aug 6 2025, 4:26 PM
More Ground-Holding Despite Weird Intraday Spike
This morning's commentary led with our desire to avoid jinx...
Wed, Aug 6 2025, 3:31 PM
Although there were flashes of potential volatility in the underlying bond market at times today, mortgage rates made it through unscathed. In other ...
Wed, Aug 6 2025, 11:26 AM
We don't want to jinx it, but this is turning out to be an uncommonly calm week of trading compared to other post-jobs-report trading weeks. So far, ...
Tue, Aug 5 2025, 4:37 PM
Bonds Hold Steady After Modest Data-Driven Rally
Today's (and to be fair, this week's) only major econ data-...
Tue, Aug 5 2025, 3:50 PM
Yesterday saw the average 30yr fixed rate fall back in line with levels from early October, 2024. This happened for two reasons. The broader, underlyi...
Tue, Aug 5 2025, 10:43 AM
The ISM Services Index is/was easily this week's biggest ticket in terms of scheduled economic data. It was mostly OK for bonds with the growth-relate...
Mon, Aug 4 2025, 4:47 PM
Calmly Closing at Best Levels Since April
As far as post-NFP Mondays go, this was a calm one. Bonds never s...
Mon, Aug 4 2025, 4:09 PM
Mortgage rates are driven by movement in the bond market and bonds take cues from economic data, among other things. The monthly jobs report is routin...
Mon, Aug 4 2025, 11:26 AM
The new week is less interesting than the previous week in terms of scheduled events with the only top tier data being Tuesday's ISM Non Manufacturing...
Fri, Aug 1 2025, 5:07 PM
Bond Traders Quickly Revise Their Bullishness
"Revision" is the word of the day as every armchair economist ...
Fri, Aug 1 2025, 3:36 PM
Every month, we offer the same old warning/reminder ahead of the big jobs report--something to the effect of "no other economic report has as much pow...
Fri, Aug 1 2025, 11:59 AM
Non-farm payrolls came in at 73k vs 110k, which is a pretty good thing for the bond market in and of itself. But the bigger story is in the net revis...
Thu, Jul 31 2025, 4:47 PM
Month-End Volatility Erodes Modest Gains
Bonds were slightly stronger in the overnight session and this morn...
Thu, Jul 31 2025, 3:51 PM
Mortgage rates went to bed last night knowing that the bond market would need to improve in the morning in order for prevailing levels to be maintaine...
Thu, Jul 31 2025, 3:11 PM
Below is a table that consolidates the results of various econ reports as well as NFP precedents that speak to the odds of NFP moving higher or lower ...
Thu, Jul 31 2025, 10:33 AM
While jobless claims and the Employment Cost Index can be market movers, today's biggest ticket in the 8:30am slot was the monthly PCE Price Index for...
Wed, Jul 30 2025, 4:16 PM
Markets Expected More Dovishness From Powell
AM data was a mixed bag that left bonds slightly weaker on the ...
Wed, Jul 30 2025, 3:49 PM
Wednesday brought another incremental increase in the level and importance of the calendar events with the power to create volatility for rates. Some ...
Wed, Jul 30 2025, 2:00 PM
Although swings in net exports have affected continue to affect the data, recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity has continu...
Wed, Jul 30 2025, 10:06 AM
There were two key reports at the start of trading today. The 815am ADP data was fairly forgettable, coming in at 104k vs 75k f'cast, and -23k previo...
Tue, Jul 29 2025, 4:33 PM
Bonds Firing on All Cylinders After Data and Treasury Supply
The bond market was in flow state on Tuesday wi...
Tue, Jul 29 2025, 3:43 PM
After three straight days at exactly the same level, average 30yr fixed rates began to move lower again on Tuesday. It should immediately be clarified...
Tue, Jul 29 2025, 10:35 AM
There's no mistaking the fact that bonds are trading in a boring, narrowing, sideways range in the bigger picture, nor could anyone claim that today's...
Mon, Jul 28 2025, 4:15 PM
A "No Reaction" Sort of Day
Granted, there were no big ticket economic reports on tap for Monday, but there ...
Mon, Jul 28 2025, 3:15 PM
If any given week of movement in the mortgage rate world came with disclaimer, this one would be: "Warning. An absence of volatility on Monday has no ...
Mon, Jul 28 2025, 10:50 AM
Given that a bilateral trade deal between the U.S. and EU was announced over the weekend, markets haven't moved much at all in response. 10yr yields w...
Fri, Jul 25 2025, 4:48 PM
Bonds Brace For Stormier Weather After This Week's Smooth Sailing
Despite a few inconsequential ups and down...
Fri, Jul 25 2025, 4:16 PM
It's no great secret that the outgoing week didn't offer much in terms of hotly anticipated events with the power to make or break momentum in the rat...
Fri, Jul 25 2025, 12:04 PM
Bonds were initially stronger, then weaker in the overnight session. There was a bit of additional selling in the first hour, but none of it correspo...
Thu, Jul 24 2025, 5:19 PM
Reasonably Resilient After Data-Driven Selling
This morning's Jobless Claims report was the week's most rele...
Thu, Jul 24 2025, 3:41 PM
After falling for 5 straight days leading into Tuesday, mortgage rates have now moved slightly higher on each of the past two days. As was the case wi...
Thu, Jul 24 2025, 8:47 AM
Jobless claims data continues to defy a majority of other labor market metrics in showing a remarkable lack of any signs of softening. In fact, the 4...
Wed, Jul 23 2025, 4:55 PM
Broadly Calm Despite Modest Pull-Back
If anything about the present week required investigation and explanat...
Wed, Jul 23 2025, 3:22 PM
It's been a pretty good run for mortgage rates since hitting their most recent highs last Tuesday. Each subsequent day saw a modest improvement. That ...
Wed, Jul 23 2025, 10:43 AM
The analytical theme this week has been to observe the market movement and then go scrambling for justification. Such is the nature of a week without...
Tue, Jul 22 2025, 4:16 PM
Solid AM Gains Stick Around All Day
Bonds improved in the morning following comments from Bessent that gave ...
Tue, Jul 22 2025, 3:25 PM
Last week, we got a sneak preview of how the market would react to Fed Chair Powell ending his term early. In a nutshell, only the shortest-term rates...
Tue, Jul 22 2025, 11:23 AM
While stock market volatility may be a drop in the bucket in the bigger picture, earnings season tends to increase volume and liquidity. This can spi...
Mon, Jul 21 2025, 4:26 PM
Uneventful Resilience
Monday's theme for the bond market was one of moderate resilience--at least for the lo...
Mon, Jul 21 2025, 3:57 PM
Mortgage rates didn't move much on Monday, but they moved in the right direction with the average lender 0.03% lower for a top tier 30yr fixed scenari...
Mon, Jul 21 2025, 11:46 AM
It seems like only 2 weeks ago (because it was) that we encountered an entire week without any major events on the econ calendar. The present week is ...
Fri, Jul 18 2025, 5:28 PM
Needle Threaded. Now What?
As always, big-ticket data and/or news headlines have potential energy in terms...
Fri, Jul 18 2025, 5:10 PM
While any rate watcher's bingo card should always have a few squares devoted to "unchanged, flat, etc.," this week's had at least as many squares rese...
Fri, Jul 18 2025, 12:02 PM
At the end of a week with a few big ticket economic reports and unexpected headline-induced volatility, who wouldn't like a break? Friday's calendar ...
Thu, Jul 17 2025, 3:55 PM
Bonds Unfazed by Econ Data
If you had to guess at the bond market's response this morning based solely on th...
Thu, Jul 17 2025, 2:51 PM
Despite all of the economic data and news headlines over the past few days, mortgage rates have barely budged since last Friday. That was not what we ...
Thu, Jul 17 2025, 10:52 AM
There were multiple economic reports on tap this morning (4 of them in the 8:30am slot), but the headliner on a Retail Sales day is almost always goin...
Wed, Jul 16 2025, 3:48 PM
Bonds Give Free Preview of Post-Powell Momentum
Everyone loves a good free preview, but not all of the bond ...
Wed, Jul 16 2025, 3:06 PM
This morning brought another inflation report. Given the negative reaction to yesterday's inflation data, there was some cause for concern. Thankfully...
