Mon, Apr 7 2025, 12:02 PM
It's been an interesting Monday so far for the bond market (and stock market for that matter). Despite a big risk-off move (stocks and yields lower) t...
Fri, Apr 4 2025, 5:19 PM
Wild Round Trip Leaves MBS Weaker Despite Huge Initial Rally
MBS ended Friday right about where they ended T...
Fri, Apr 4 2025, 4:29 PM
This week is ending with the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate at its lowest level since early October, 2024. The only way to be disappointed ...
Fri, Apr 4 2025, 11:37 AM
Despite today being "jobs report Friday," and despite the jobs report perennially having the power to cause big volatility for financial markets, over...
Thu, Apr 3 2025, 4:48 PM
Big, Early Rally, Then Flat All Day
On any given day in the bond market, Sometimes everything that's going t...
Thu, Apr 3 2025, 3:42 PM
Yesterday afternoon's tariff announcement sent financial markets on a ride that ultimately resulted in sharply lower stock prices and moderately lower...
Thu, Apr 3 2025, 11:19 AM
While plenty of uncertainty remains over the finer points of Wednesday afternoon's tariff announcement, markets have heard enough to brace for impact ...
Wed, Apr 2 2025, 5:44 PM
Late Day Volatility on Tariff Speech
The long-awaited tariff speech took markets for a ride in both directio...
Wed, Apr 2 2025, 5:08 PM
Mortgage rates didn't move much today, which is pretty crazy considering the volatility present in financial markets in the afternoon. That's when th...
Wed, Apr 2 2025, 12:06 PM
This morning's ADP Employment data was the only potential market mover for bonds, at least as far as scheduled data is concerned. Despite coming out ...
Tue, Apr 1 2025, 4:19 PM
Data Helped, But Wild Cards Remain on Deck
This morning's economic data wasn't immediately and obviously wor...
Tue, Apr 1 2025, 3:29 PM
While interest rates continue operating in a range that is generally flat and narrow over the past 5 weeks, it's also true that today's rates are on t...
Tue, Apr 1 2025, 10:33 AM
There have certainly been days where the "prices paid" component of the ISM Manufacturing data has been responsible for sending bond yields higher. T...
Mon, Mar 31 2025, 3:48 PM
Month End Buying Pushes Back on Mid-Day Weakness
Bonds began the day in stronger territory as investors rea...
Mon, Mar 31 2025, 3:30 PM
"Sideways" has been the dominant theme for mortgage rates for well over a month now. The average top tier 30yr fixed rate fell below 6.82% on February...
Mon, Mar 31 2025, 10:34 AM
Right out of the gate in the overnight session, stocks were weaker and bonds were stronger in a risk-off move that has become all too familiar for fin...
Fri, Mar 28 2025, 5:34 PM
First thing's first before anyone gets too excited: yes, rates fell on Friday, but not significantly. The average lender is still a bit closer to the...
Fri, Mar 28 2025, 5:14 PM
What's Up With The Big Bond Rally Despite Higher Inflation?
It was one thing when bonds were only modestly s...
Fri, Mar 28 2025, 9:34 AM
Inflation, via this morning's PCE price index, came in slightly hotter than expected, but bonds are rallying in response. There are a few ways to appr...
Thu, Mar 27 2025, 4:28 PM
Uneventful Drift Ahead of Friday's Monthly PCE Data
For the 3rd day in a row, the bond market logged a rathe...
Thu, Mar 27 2025, 3:26 PM
With the exception of Monday, which saw a medium-sized uptick in mortgage rates, the rest of the week has been fairly calm in terms of volatility. Unf...
Thu, Mar 27 2025, 8:58 AM
If you're just joining us, here's a brief history of the last few decades as it concerns inflation and interest rates. Inflation was an overblown conc...
Wed, Mar 26 2025, 5:27 PM
Narrow Trading, Weaker Drift; MBS Live Threads Intro
Bonds began the day in weaker territory but found a bit...
Wed, Mar 26 2025, 4:58 PM
It depends what one's definition of "recent" is, but if it involves the past few weeks, mortgage rates were at their highest recent levels both yester...
Wed, Mar 26 2025, 11:37 AM
The first 3 days of this week have all generally seen yields at the highest levels in a month (or perhaps in "at least 28 days" considering Feb's day ...
Tue, Mar 25 2025, 4:25 PM
Overnight Weakness Gives Way to Modest Gains
In absolute terms, it was a moderately active day for bonds as ...
Tue, Mar 25 2025, 4:02 PM
One of the key principles of mortgage rate movement has to do with the frequency of mortgage rate changes. Specifically, mortgage lenders prefer to u...
Tue, Mar 25 2025, 10:25 AM
Bonds came into the domestic session in weaker territory after steady selling in Europe. The resulting yields were ultimately a few bps higher than t...
Mon, Mar 24 2025, 3:59 PM
Yields Pushing Range Boundaries After Tariff Updates and Econ Data
Bonds lost ground over the weekend as new...
Mon, Mar 24 2025, 3:41 PM
The average mortgage lender raised rates modestly on Monday morning--a logical move considering the weakness in the bond market over the weekend. Rat...
Mon, Mar 24 2025, 12:26 PM
Bonds are starting the week in weaker shape. If you had to reduce that movement to one motivation, it would be the "risk-on" vibes following more news...
Fri, Mar 21 2025, 4:45 PM
Small Scale Weakness Leaves Bigger Picture Unchanged
Bonds began the day in stronger territory after tracing...
Fri, Mar 21 2025, 2:44 PM
In terms of the market movement that underlies and dictates mortgage rate movement, today looked a lot like yesterday. Things started strong and fade...
Fri, Mar 21 2025, 11:49 AM
Heading into this week's Fed announcement, we noted the consolidation pattern in bonds (the convergence of intraday highs and lows in an increasingly ...
Thu, Mar 20 2025, 5:06 PM
Uneventful Trading Day, But That's a Win
There's not much to say about today's trading session. MBS and Tre...
Thu, Mar 20 2025, 4:32 PM
It was actually a rather uneventful day for the bond market. That means it should have been an uneventful day for mortgage rates (because they're driv...
Thu, Mar 20 2025, 11:07 AM
The eternal disclaimer: we should never flat-out expect a particular correlation between stocks and bonds, with limited exceptions. Yesterday's Fed an...
Wed, Mar 19 2025, 4:21 PM
Post-Fed Rally is "Nice" But Not Quite Exciting
In a small vacuum, today's Fed announcement had a noticeably...
Wed, Mar 19 2025, 3:52 PM
Heading into today, we knew the afternoon's Fed announcement was biggest potential flashpoint for interest rate movement, and that the movement probab...
Wed, Mar 19 2025, 2:00 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recen...
Wed, Mar 19 2025, 12:34 PM
Today's only big ticket calendar event is the Fed announcement, but that is more like 3 separate events over the course of roughly 2 hours. The announ...
Tue, Mar 18 2025, 3:37 PM
Low Volatility Session Ahead of Fed Day
4 out of the year's 8 Fed announcements include an updated dot plot ...
Tue, Mar 18 2025, 3:07 PM
As we often discuss, mortgage lenders prefer to set their rates once per day. They only make changes when the underlying bond market makes a big enoug...
Tue, Mar 18 2025, 11:37 AM
Recall 2 weeks ago that news of the incoming German Chancellor's ambitions to massively increase debt/spending led to the end of the bond rally in the...
Mon, Mar 17 2025, 4:12 PM
Mixed Reaction to Retail Sales Makes For a Boring Monday
Despite coming in much weaker than expected, Retail...
Mon, Mar 17 2025, 3:50 PM
Mortgage rates are based on movement in the bond market, and the bond market is closed for most of the weekend. As such, one might assume that Monday...
Mon, Mar 17 2025, 11:57 AM
After improving modestly in the overnight session, bonds contended with the Retail Sales data at 8:30am ET. At first glance, it should have been help...
Fri, Mar 14 2025, 6:22 PM
Uneventful Friday, Even if Slightly Weaker
Friday's trading session was the most uneventful of the week. It...
Fri, Mar 14 2025, 3:38 PM
Despite some ups and downs on a small scale, mortgage rates have been sideways in the bigger picture. That's a good thing if the latest refi applicat...
Fri, Mar 14 2025, 9:29 AM
It's been an on-again, off-again week for bonds and several of their trading motivations. Economic data has played its part at times, but not in any ...
