Tue, Jul 7 2026, 3:18 PM
Hormuz Back in The News
Iran has attacked a few cargo ships recently and there are repercussions. The peace ...
Tue, Jul 7 2026, 2:53 PM
It's been a while since oil prices were the focal point of the interest rate conversation, but that recently familiar dynamic is once again playing ou...
Tue, Jul 7 2026, 9:46 AM
From summertime Monday to summertime Tuesday... Yesterday's modest strength is now erased by today's modest weakness. In both cases, the movement is t...
Mon, Jul 6 2026, 4:03 PM
Uneventful Summertime Monday
Volume and--sometimes--volatility can be generally lower in the middle of the s...
Mon, Jul 6 2026, 3:23 PM
Volatility is always a risk surrounding 3 day holiday weekends when it comes to markets and mortgage rates, but this time around, things have been ver...
Mon, Jul 6 2026, 10:19 AM
Bonds weathered the 3-day weekend without issue. We started the day modestly stronger, but have moved back closer to unchanged levels in the first 2 h...
Thu, Jul 2 2026, 2:17 PM
Not Reading Too Much Into Late Day Reversal
Bonds rallied quickly in response to this morning's jobs report ...
Thu, Jul 2 2026, 1:05 PM
Today is a half day for financial markets, which is a typical feature of a federal holiday weekend. Because tomorrow is fully closed, the big jobs rep...
Thu, Jul 2 2026, 9:05 AM
Bonds continued drifting gently higher in the overnight session with 10yr yields just barely edging above 4.50% before today's big jobs report (the on...
Wed, Jul 1 2026, 3:46 PM
Bonds Find Some Solace in Warsh Despite a Bit More Selling
The past 2 days have been rough for the bond mark...
Wed, Jul 1 2026, 3:15 PM
In a real sense, today's rate update is more of an addendum to yesterday's rate update. Yesterday afternoon saw heavy, continued selling in the bond m...
Wed, Jul 1 2026, 9:28 AM
Bonds have added modestly to Tuesday's big quarter-end sell-off (a phenomenon that has nothing to do with the sorts of fundamental developments that d...
Tue, Jun 30 2026, 3:59 PM
Why We Saw Steady Selling All Day
We expected volatility would pick up on Tuesday for one reason or another ...
Tue, Jun 30 2026, 2:39 PM
Starting last Thursday, mortgage rates have barely budged. In terms of our 30yr fixed index, the maximum day-over-day change has been 0.02% since then...
Tue, Jun 30 2026, 9:21 AM
Before looking at trading screens this morning, the first order of business would have been to mention the ramp up in economic calendar activity. Whil...
Mon, Jun 29 2026, 3:25 PM
Volatility Risk Ramps Up From Here
Monday made it clear that traders are playing by the typical summertime, ...
Mon, Jun 29 2026, 3:07 PM
Mortgage rates ended last week at the lowest level since May 14th. Most of the recent drop happened last Wednesday, but each day since then has added ...
Mon, Jun 29 2026, 10:24 AM
At the risk of jinxing it, Monday is pretty much already in the back as an uneventful start to a holiday-shortened week (early close on Thursday and f...
Fri, Jun 26 2026, 4:51 PM
Early Gains. Flat Afternoon. MBS Underperform
Friday ended up offering a boring conclusion to a week that ha...
Fri, Jun 26 2026, 3:06 PM
Mortgage rates officially hit their lowest level in more than a month yesterday with MND's 30yr fixed index falling to 6.53% from 6.55% on Wednesday. ...
Fri, Jun 26 2026, 10:01 AM
Q2 has been one of the best quarters for stocks going all the way back to the dot com boom, even after the 4-5% pullback in June. This has created a m...
Thu, Jun 25 2026, 3:27 PM
Mostly Holding Yesterday's Big Gains
Bonds began the day in modestly weaker territory, but not weak enough t...
Thu, Jun 25 2026, 1:45 PM
Mortgage rates had a great day yesterday, moving within 0.01% of the lowest levels in more than a month. They dropped just a bit more today and are no...
Thu, Jun 25 2026, 8:59 AM
The PCE price index may be a less timely report than CPI/PPI when it comes to measuring inflation in the U.S., but it's more thorough and has stronger...
Wed, Jun 24 2026, 3:52 PM
What's Up With Today's Big Rally? (Spoiler Alert: Quarter-End Rebalancing)
Stocks went on a tear in Q2 with ...
Wed, Jun 24 2026, 2:52 PM
Rate momentum shifted noticeably on Wednesday. The underlying bond market saw heavy buying in pre-market trading--likely a result of large-scale quart...
Wed, Jun 24 2026, 9:34 AM
Bonds spend most of the night trading sideways to slightly stronger. Oil prices fell sharply, making it tempting to conclude that's the reason that 10...
Tue, Jun 23 2026, 4:17 PM
Mostly Sideways and Lacking Inspiration
Tuesday may as well have been a holiday. Volumes were among the lowe...
Tue, Jun 23 2026, 3:31 PM
Mortgage rates may be based directly on the bond market, but the two don't always move in perfect lock-step. Today was a good example of that. Bonds i...
Tue, Jun 23 2026, 9:58 AM
Yesterday's most interesting development was the visible decoupling of bond yields with oil prices. To a lesser extent, one could also lament that mid...
Mon, Jun 22 2026, 4:49 PM
What's Up With Bonds Decoupling From Oil, Etc.?
On the average trading day in the past few months, if oil pr...
Mon, Jun 22 2026, 3:57 PM
Mortgage rates gave back the improvement seen last Thursday and broke above last Wednesday's levels to hit the highest mark since June 10th. This isn'...
Mon, Jun 22 2026, 9:59 AM
European bond yields surged higher on Friday in response to political uncertainty in the U.K., among other things (ongoing global reaction to Fed day ...
Thu, Jun 18 2026, 3:19 PM
Perfectly Acceptable Conclusion to a Potentially Volatile Week
With markets closed for the Juneteenth holida...
Thu, Jun 18 2026, 12:46 PM
Mortgage rates spiked yesterday after the Fed announcement. The primary driver was the Fed's revised outlook for potential rate hikes later this year....
Thu, Jun 18 2026, 10:04 AM
Trump officially signed the Iran MOU last night , which helped oil prices and bond yields move a bit lower. Overseas markets also did a decent job dig...
Wed, Jun 17 2026, 5:00 PM
Bonds Tell Warsh What They Think of His Changes
Ironically, one of Warsh's comments in today's press confere...
Wed, Jun 17 2026, 4:09 PM
Mortgage rates quickly erased a week of progress this afternoon following the Fed announcement and press conference. Fed announcement day historically...
Wed, Jun 17 2026, 2:00 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release...
Wed, Jun 17 2026, 9:40 AM
So far today, we've seen some war-related headlines that feel like they should have gotten at least a mild response (Trump saying MOU isn't final and ...
Tue, Jun 16 2026, 4:24 PM
Decent Gains, But Some Signs of Resistance
Bonds improved overnight at the start of European trading and mad...
Tue, Jun 16 2026, 3:56 PM
Today's top tier 30yr fixed rate was 6.54% for the average lender. You'd have to go back to May 14th's reading of 6.52% to see anything lower. The lat...
Tue, Jun 16 2026, 11:55 AM
European markets definitely got in on the peace deal action yesterday, but they didn't trade it nearly as aggressively as US markets. Why bring this ...
Mon, Jun 15 2026, 4:15 PM
Gradual Selling Leaves Bonds Only Slightly Stronger.
With both sides signing the peace memo, the market w...
Mon, Jun 15 2026, 3:51 PM
The bad news: mortgage rates didn't fall quite as much as one might have expected following the confirmation of the Iran peace deal. The good news: ra...
Mon, Jun 15 2026, 10:07 AM
Although at least one article (from BBC) suggested a peace deal had been signed on Friday, the real word appears to be that a signing is scheduled for...
Fri, Jun 12 2026, 3:34 PM
Minimal Deal Drama, But Next Week Could be Different
Various headlines out of Iran pushed back on the not...
Fri, Jun 12 2026, 2:51 PM
Some national headlines are pointing out that mortgage rates are higher this week. Those are based on weekly survey data which can often be stale comp...
Fri, Jun 12 2026, 9:34 AM
Bonds were sideways at first in the overnight session. Then they improved moderately after newswires from Iran's Mehr news agency detailing some speci...
Thu, Jun 11 2026, 4:40 PM
Big Rally After More Forceful Peace Deal Announcement
This morning's commentary noted Trump comments regardi...
