Mon, Dec 16 2024, 12:26 PM
Bonds were modestly stronger in the overnight session, and although domestic traders quickly erased the gains in the AM hours, the selling is currentl...
Fri, Dec 13 2024, 4:55 PM
Why So Much Selling in Bonds?
Without a doubt, it's been a frustrating and puzzling week for the bond market...
Fri, Dec 13 2024, 3:13 PM
There's no easy way to say it: it was a bad week for mortgage rates. Actually, it was a bad week for interest rates in general and mortgage rates typ...
Fri, Dec 13 2024, 11:42 AM
Bonds can't seem to catch a break this week. Data hasn't necessarily been unfriendly either with both CPI and PPI hitting forecasts at the core month...
Thu, Dec 12 2024, 4:36 PM
Mediocre Data Has Done Nothing to Help Bonds
Granted, this week's slate of economic data isn't on quite the ...
Thu, Dec 12 2024, 4:08 PM
It's been a bummer of a week for mortgage rates with modest to moderate increases every day so far. Adding insult to injury is the fact that there ha...
Thu, Dec 12 2024, 10:28 AM
This morning's Producer Price Index (PPI) came in hotter than expected in year-over-year terms (3.4 vs 3.2 at the core level). Traders were mostly abl...
Wed, Dec 11 2024, 4:16 PM
Why Bonds Sold Off After a Decent AM Rally
It was a day for "explanations" in the bond market with the morni...
Wed, Dec 11 2024, 3:32 PM
Mortgage rates were having a pretty decent day at first. The bond market was only slightly weaker overnight (implies some upward pressure on rates), ...
Wed, Dec 11 2024, 10:52 AM
Today's headline and core CPI readings were both perfectly in line with forecasts. After the data came out, bonds rallied and Fed Funds Futures moved...
Tue, Dec 10 2024, 4:13 PM
Ready For Anything After Pre-CPI Consolidation
Bonds were arguably consolidating ahead of last Friday's jobs...
Tue, Dec 10 2024, 3:34 PM
Between November 18th and December 6th, the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate moved down from 7.08 to 6.68. A 0.40% drop is rather significan...
Tue, Dec 10 2024, 10:40 AM
Yesterday's closing commentary also noted "inconsequential weakness," and there's not really a better way to refer to this morning's modest losses. O...
Mon, Dec 9 2024, 5:02 PM
Inconsequential Weakness
Bonds lost a moderate amount of ground on Monday with 10yr yields moving back above...
Mon, Dec 9 2024, 4:26 PM
Mortgage rates ended last week with an impressive drop to the lowest levels in more than a month and a half. Today's rates ended up being the 2nd low...
Mon, Dec 9 2024, 10:38 AM
Up until last Friday, 10yr yields closed at 4.17% for 5 days in a row. While that's technically "resistance," we're not complaining considering that's...
Fri, Dec 6 2024, 4:57 PM
Solid Conclusion to a Solid Week. Has The Tide Turned?
After Thanksgiving week introduced a potential breako...
Fri, Dec 6 2024, 4:29 PM
As of last week, rates were showing some signs of resilience, but they had to wait for the true test from this week's jobs report. Spoiler alert: they...
Fri, Dec 6 2024, 9:52 AM
We all know that today's jobs report is the most important economic data on an given month. We also know that a higher payroll count tends to be bad f...
Thu, Dec 5 2024, 4:10 PM
Calm Week So Far, But All Bets Are Off After Jobs Report
Bonds were slightly weaker overnight and did just a...
Thu, Dec 5 2024, 3:58 PM
It's been a remarkably calm week for mortgage rates, and a fairly decent one relative to several recent examples. The average top tier 30yr fixed rat...
Thu, Dec 5 2024, 8:46 AM
Jobless Claims
224k vs 215k f'cast, 213k prev
Continued Claims
1871k vs 1910k f'cast, 1896k prev
At first glance, the 224k figure...
Wed, Dec 4 2024, 4:34 PM
No Whammies From Powell as Rates Rally on ISM Data
Bonds came away from this morning's economic data with a ...
Wed, Dec 4 2024, 4:23 PM
Mortgage lenders generally try to avoid setting rates more than once per day, but they will make changes if the underlying bond market is moving enoug...
Wed, Dec 4 2024, 12:00 PM
Bonds drifted steadily higher in yield during the overnight session with most of the weakness seen after European markets opened. The net effect was r...
Tue, Dec 3 2024, 3:53 PM
Friendly Fed Comments No Match For The Range
The day began with a bond rally courtesy of geopolitical headli...
Tue, Dec 3 2024, 3:30 PM
The bond market is the primary driver of mortgage rate movement and normally, "weakness" equates to higher rates. Bonds are slightly weaker today com...
Tue, Dec 3 2024, 9:57 AM
Of all of the motivations in all the markets, this one had to walk into ours. Or perhaps it rolled in on tank tracks. Just over an hour ago, South K...
Mon, Dec 2 2024, 4:42 PM
Bonds Hold Vast Majority of Last Week's Gains
The most significant thing that happened as the market returne...
Mon, Dec 2 2024, 4:34 PM
Mortgage rates remain elevated relative to the levels seen in September and early October, but they've definitely moved down a bit from their recent h...
Mon, Dec 2 2024, 9:18 AM
It can be a bit tricky to understand the roll of various forms of positioning when it comes to otherwise inexplicable movement in the bond market. It...
Wed, Nov 27 2024, 3:17 PM
Stronger Bonds, Before and After (And Regardless of) Economic Data
Bonds were stronger overnight with 10yr y...
Wed, Nov 27 2024, 2:53 PM
The interest rate market continues the healing process after taking heavy damage in October. During the course of that month, the average top tier co...
Wed, Nov 27 2024, 9:18 AM
Although this morning contained the week's most active slate of economic data, it has completely failed to inspire even the most modest of responses i...
Tue, Nov 26 2024, 3:17 PM
No Major Data. No Major Drama
While today's economic calendar was not necessarily "empty," it may as well ha...
Tue, Nov 26 2024, 2:12 PM
Although there was a busier calendar of economic data today, mortgage rates are little changed after dropping at the fastest pace in several weeks to ...
Tue, Nov 26 2024, 9:50 AM
Monday brought a rare event for the bond market in the recent context as yields fell throughout the day and never really thought about bouncing. It wa...
Mon, Nov 25 2024, 4:05 PM
Come For The Big Rally, Stay For The Staying Power
Bonds rallied sharply on Monday. It wasn't the first tim...
Mon, Nov 25 2024, 3:32 PM
Last Monday, mortgage rates were near the highest levels in more than 3 months. A week later, and the average lender is right in line with the lowest...
Mon, Nov 25 2024, 8:54 AM
Of all of Trump's political appointees, Treasury Secretary is the most consequential for the bond market ("Treasury" is right in the title, after all!...
Fri, Nov 22 2024, 4:26 PM
Getting Back to Normal, For a Few Days Anyway
After a decidedly abnormal 6 weeks beginning in early October,...
Fri, Nov 22 2024, 3:01 PM
Starting in early October, mortgage rates experienced significant volatility, meaning the average day over day change was much bigger than normal. Wh...
Fri, Nov 22 2024, 12:03 PM
The bond market has been forced to take the victories that are within reach. As November winds down, the best victory we could have hoped for was the...
Thu, Nov 21 2024, 4:52 PM
Another Flat Day, This Time With Data
While it would be an overstatement to say that bonds have fully outgro...
Thu, Nov 21 2024, 4:26 PM
They may not be low. In fact, they may still be a lot higher than you want, but at least they haven't been too volatility this week. For the 7th day...
Thu, Nov 21 2024, 12:13 PM
It's been a bit of a chaotic morning so far, but in a narrow enough range to make it relatively boring in the bigger picture. Bonds began the day in ...
Wed, Nov 20 2024, 4:22 PM
Remember October and the first part of November--not because of the election, but rather because of the relentless rise in mortgage rates? Would you ...
Wed, Nov 20 2024, 10:34 AM
There has been plenty of news over the past 48 hours regarding the U.S. greenlighting Ukraine to use long range missiles to attack Russia. Yesterday'...
Tue, Nov 19 2024, 4:59 PM
Bonds Give Back Most of The Overnight Gains
Stocks and bonds had a logical response to the threat of global ...
Tue, Nov 19 2024, 4:27 PM
Ask your favorite curmudgeonly old market watcher and they'll be happy to explain what "always" happens in financial markets when there's breaking new...