Mon, Apr 28 2025, 4:12 PM
No Whammies in Treasury Borrowing Estimate
Bonds were slightly weaker overnight but quickly moved into stron...
Mon, Apr 28 2025, 3:36 PM
Mortgage rates ended last week at the lowest levels since April 7th. The average lender remained at those same levels at the start of business today,...
Mon, Apr 28 2025, 11:39 AM
When getting a sense of what's happening in the bond market, it's frequently safe to ignore the last 2 hours of trading on Friday and the first 2 on M...
Fri, Apr 25 2025, 5:09 PM
Eerily Calm and Strong For 2nd Straight Day
After being heavily conditioned to expect elevated volatility wi...
Fri, Apr 25 2025, 4:06 PM
The news on mortgage rates has been frustratingly mixed recently, depending on the source. This is a factor of the various time frames and methodologi...
Fri, Apr 25 2025, 10:34 AM
Today's only scheduled economic report is Consumer Sentiment. Nonetheless, we would classify today as being "data free" because this is simply the fin...
Thu, Apr 24 2025, 4:26 PM
Solid Bond Rally For Debatable Reasons
Bonds improved moderately well overnight and added to those gains ste...
Thu, Apr 24 2025, 3:47 PM
Mortgage rates continue the slow, bumpy process of healing from the rapid rise seen 2 weeks ago. Last week was a solid victory in that sense with rate...
Thu, Apr 24 2025, 12:19 PM
What's "normal" for the bond market? That depends how far back you want to look. Starting in late February, we had about a month of mostly sideways m...
Wed, Apr 23 2025, 4:42 PM
Bonds Lose Almost All The Gains After Inflation Warnings in The Data
Bonds started out sharply stronger toda...
Wed, Apr 23 2025, 4:12 PM
Mortgage rates are an extension of the financial market, so it's no surprise that they've been more volatile than normal over the past few weeks as ma...
Wed, Apr 23 2025, 10:17 AM
Two factors had been contributing more than others to drive bond yields higher as of yesterday. The broader, ongoing factor is/was the tariff/trade s...
Tue, Apr 22 2025, 4:37 PM
Broadly Sideways Despite Intraday Volatility
Shorter term bonds lost ground today while longer term bonds an...
Tue, Apr 22 2025, 3:31 PM
In not so many words, last week's thesis was that "no news was good news" for mortgage rates. Specifically, an absence of major, unexpected developme...
Tue, Apr 22 2025, 11:07 AM
If there was an overriding theme last week, it was that the absence of new tariff drama helped the bond market recover some of the previous week's wea...
Mon, Apr 21 2025, 5:28 PM
Unfortunate Market Movement For Unfortunate Reasons
Global financial markets partook in a slow motion train ...
Mon, Apr 21 2025, 4:29 PM
Last week was a hopeful one for interest rates. The average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate fell more than 0.20% from the previous week's highs as ...
Mon, Apr 21 2025, 10:38 AM
Heading into last week, we expected to be waiting until after the holiday weekend to get a better sense of the prevailing tone in financial markets. I...
Thu, Apr 17 2025, 4:55 PM
Don't Sweat The Modest Weakness
Bonds began the day roughly unchanged and very flat for most of the morning....
Thu, Apr 17 2025, 2:35 PM
Mortgage rates managed to make a nice amount of progress this week after hitting the highest levels in roughly 2 months last Friday. The first 2 days ...
Thu, Apr 17 2025, 10:45 AM
The market and market participants could use a break after everything endured over the past 2 weeks. This holiday-shortened week turned out to provid...
Wed, Apr 16 2025, 3:48 PM
Bonds Reprise Familiar Role as a Safe Haven Amid Renewed Rout in Stocks
You've seen it plenty of times so fa...
Wed, Apr 16 2025, 3:29 PM
As markets digested implications of several fiscal policy changes over the past 2 months, a predictable trading pattern emerged. Stocks and interest r...
Wed, Apr 16 2025, 11:35 AM
What a difference a week makes. The present example has been entirely different than the previous example in terms of volatility and directional movem...
Tue, Apr 15 2025, 4:39 PM
Absence Makes the Bonds Grow Stronger
Bonds improved at a moderate pace for the 2nd day in a row, thus marki...
Tue, Apr 15 2025, 3:50 PM
Financial markets experienced relatively extreme volatility on several occasions following the April 2nd tariff announcements. The bonds that underlie...
Tue, Apr 15 2025, 11:24 AM
In the context of the past two weeks, the past two days have been an anomaly. Not only have bond yields been moving lower, but they've done so in rela...
Mon, Apr 14 2025, 4:18 PM
Bonds Build on Overnight Gains After Another Tariff Change
It was a low drama session for bonds with overnig...
Mon, Apr 14 2025, 3:18 PM
Last Friday was notable in that it was the first day since February 19th where the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate ended the day over 7%. La...
Mon, Apr 14 2025, 10:10 AM
Friday afternoon's memorandum on tariff exclusions set the stage for stronger trading in stocks and bonds in the overnight session. Bonds rallied stea...
Fri, Apr 11 2025, 5:03 PM
Rough Week For Bonds. No Help From Friendly Data
Bonds managed to recover modestly after the initial yield s...
Fri, Apr 11 2025, 4:16 PM
It has undoubtedly been an extremely volatile week for financial markets and that includes the U.S. bond market to be sure. As an example, the poster...
Fri, Apr 11 2025, 12:38 PM
There have been some bad weeks for bonds here and there over the careers of most anyone who's alive to read these words, but unless your career began ...
Thu, Apr 10 2025, 5:08 PM
The Reasons May be Esoteric, But The Selling is Real
Bonds sold off today, in spite of a very bond-friendly ...
Thu, Apr 10 2025, 3:50 PM
This article is not intended to report on the weekly Freddie Mac rate survey, but we'll have to reference it in order to participate in reality. To be...
Thu, Apr 10 2025, 11:49 AM
It feels very odd to label a report like CPI as "irrelevant," and to be fair, traders were still paying some attention, but the trading response, in g...
Wed, Apr 9 2025, 5:38 PM
Bonds Have a Lot On Their Minds (And The Mega Reversal After The Tariff Pause)
There are actually too man...
Wed, Apr 9 2025, 4:29 PM
For anyone remotely tuned into financial news, it will come as no surprise that this has been a crazy week and today has been a crazy day. This is ju...
Wed, Apr 9 2025, 9:14 AM
MBS are down the better part of a point and 10yr yields are up 14+ bps at 4.44%. Another huge loss that leaves market watchers grasping for answers. ...
Tue, Apr 8 2025, 5:37 PM
Heavy Losses as Bonds Brace For Tougher Times
This morning's commentary suggested that "liberation day volat...
Tue, Apr 8 2025, 4:43 PM
While no one can be sure exactly how things will pan out in the long run, the market is currently expressing extreme disapproval of the new tariff pla...
Tue, Apr 8 2025, 10:47 AM
The past 2 days of selling in the bond market may seem dramatic, but they make solid sense in the bigger picture. Trump's April 2nd "Liberation Day" w...
Mon, Apr 7 2025, 5:47 PM
Explaining Monday's Wild Ride in The Bond Market
It was an extremely volatile, frustrating, and downright we...
Mon, Apr 7 2025, 5:00 PM
Tariff volatility giveth and taketh from interest rates. Up until Friday afternoon, it's been mostly "giveth-ing." In other words, the prospect of t...
Mon, Apr 7 2025, 12:02 PM
It's been an interesting Monday so far for the bond market (and stock market for that matter). Despite a big risk-off move (stocks and yields lower) t...
Fri, Apr 4 2025, 5:19 PM
Wild Round Trip Leaves MBS Weaker Despite Huge Initial Rally
MBS ended Friday right about where they ended T...
Fri, Apr 4 2025, 4:29 PM
This week is ending with the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate at its lowest level since early October, 2024. The only way to be disappointed ...
Fri, Apr 4 2025, 11:37 AM
Despite today being "jobs report Friday," and despite the jobs report perennially having the power to cause big volatility for financial markets, over...
Thu, Apr 3 2025, 4:48 PM
Big, Early Rally, Then Flat All Day
On any given day in the bond market, Sometimes everything that's going t...
Thu, Apr 3 2025, 3:42 PM
Yesterday afternoon's tariff announcement sent financial markets on a ride that ultimately resulted in sharply lower stock prices and moderately lower...
