Fri, Jun 26 2026, 4:51 PM
Early Gains. Flat Afternoon. MBS Underperform
Friday ended up offering a boring conclusion to a week that ha...
Fri, Jun 26 2026, 3:06 PM
Mortgage rates officially hit their lowest level in more than a month yesterday with MND's 30yr fixed index falling to 6.53% from 6.55% on Wednesday. ...
Fri, Jun 26 2026, 10:01 AM
Q2 has been one of the best quarters for stocks going all the way back to the dot com boom, even after the 4-5% pullback in June. This has created a m...
Thu, Jun 25 2026, 3:27 PM
Mostly Holding Yesterday's Big Gains
Bonds began the day in modestly weaker territory, but not weak enough t...
Thu, Jun 25 2026, 1:45 PM
Mortgage rates had a great day yesterday, moving within 0.01% of the lowest levels in more than a month. They dropped just a bit more today and are no...
Thu, Jun 25 2026, 8:59 AM
The PCE price index may be a less timely report than CPI/PPI when it comes to measuring inflation in the U.S., but it's more thorough and has stronger...
Wed, Jun 24 2026, 3:52 PM
What's Up With Today's Big Rally? (Spoiler Alert: Quarter-End Rebalancing)
Stocks went on a tear in Q2 with ...
Wed, Jun 24 2026, 2:52 PM
Rate momentum shifted noticeably on Wednesday. The underlying bond market saw heavy buying in pre-market trading--likely a result of large-scale quart...
Wed, Jun 24 2026, 9:34 AM
Bonds spend most of the night trading sideways to slightly stronger. Oil prices fell sharply, making it tempting to conclude that's the reason that 10...
Tue, Jun 23 2026, 4:17 PM
Mostly Sideways and Lacking Inspiration
Tuesday may as well have been a holiday. Volumes were among the lowe...
Tue, Jun 23 2026, 3:31 PM
Mortgage rates may be based directly on the bond market, but the two don't always move in perfect lock-step. Today was a good example of that. Bonds i...
Tue, Jun 23 2026, 9:58 AM
Yesterday's most interesting development was the visible decoupling of bond yields with oil prices. To a lesser extent, one could also lament that mid...
Mon, Jun 22 2026, 4:49 PM
What's Up With Bonds Decoupling From Oil, Etc.?
On the average trading day in the past few months, if oil pr...
Mon, Jun 22 2026, 3:57 PM
Mortgage rates gave back the improvement seen last Thursday and broke above last Wednesday's levels to hit the highest mark since June 10th. This isn'...
Mon, Jun 22 2026, 9:59 AM
European bond yields surged higher on Friday in response to political uncertainty in the U.K., among other things (ongoing global reaction to Fed day ...
Thu, Jun 18 2026, 3:19 PM
Perfectly Acceptable Conclusion to a Potentially Volatile Week
With markets closed for the Juneteenth holida...
Thu, Jun 18 2026, 12:46 PM
Mortgage rates spiked yesterday after the Fed announcement. The primary driver was the Fed's revised outlook for potential rate hikes later this year....
Thu, Jun 18 2026, 10:04 AM
Trump officially signed the Iran MOU last night , which helped oil prices and bond yields move a bit lower. Overseas markets also did a decent job dig...
Wed, Jun 17 2026, 5:00 PM
Bonds Tell Warsh What They Think of His Changes
Ironically, one of Warsh's comments in today's press confere...
Wed, Jun 17 2026, 4:09 PM
Mortgage rates quickly erased a week of progress this afternoon following the Fed announcement and press conference. Fed announcement day historically...
Wed, Jun 17 2026, 2:00 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release...
Wed, Jun 17 2026, 9:40 AM
So far today, we've seen some war-related headlines that feel like they should have gotten at least a mild response (Trump saying MOU isn't final and ...
Tue, Jun 16 2026, 4:24 PM
Decent Gains, But Some Signs of Resistance
Bonds improved overnight at the start of European trading and mad...
Tue, Jun 16 2026, 3:56 PM
Today's top tier 30yr fixed rate was 6.54% for the average lender. You'd have to go back to May 14th's reading of 6.52% to see anything lower. The lat...
Tue, Jun 16 2026, 11:55 AM
European markets definitely got in on the peace deal action yesterday, but they didn't trade it nearly as aggressively as US markets. Why bring this ...
Mon, Jun 15 2026, 4:15 PM
Gradual Selling Leaves Bonds Only Slightly Stronger.
With both sides signing the peace memo, the market w...
Mon, Jun 15 2026, 3:51 PM
The bad news: mortgage rates didn't fall quite as much as one might have expected following the confirmation of the Iran peace deal. The good news: ra...
Mon, Jun 15 2026, 10:07 AM
Although at least one article (from BBC) suggested a peace deal had been signed on Friday, the real word appears to be that a signing is scheduled for...
Fri, Jun 12 2026, 3:34 PM
Minimal Deal Drama, But Next Week Could be Different
Various headlines out of Iran pushed back on the not...
Fri, Jun 12 2026, 2:51 PM
Some national headlines are pointing out that mortgage rates are higher this week. Those are based on weekly survey data which can often be stale comp...
Fri, Jun 12 2026, 9:34 AM
Bonds were sideways at first in the overnight session. Then they improved moderately after newswires from Iran's Mehr news agency detailing some speci...
Thu, Jun 11 2026, 4:40 PM
Big Rally After More Forceful Peace Deal Announcement
This morning's commentary noted Trump comments regardi...
Thu, Jun 11 2026, 4:00 PM
Mortgage rates began the day in uneventful fashion with the average lender right in line with yesterday's latest levels. Things might have gotten off ...
Thu, Jun 11 2026, 9:44 AM
Bonds were reasonably stronger in the overnight session with 10yr yields down roughly 4bps from 4.56 to 4.52. About 8 minutes before the PPI data came...
Wed, Jun 10 2026, 4:04 PM
War Headlines Cause Mid-Day Reversal
Bonds started the day inconsequentially weaker and picked up some gains...
Wed, Jun 10 2026, 2:32 PM
There's been remarkably little change in mortgage rates so far this week. Monday saw a modest increase vs Friday, but since then, there's been essenti...
Wed, Jun 10 2026, 9:52 AM
Most understand this, but some forget: CPI numbers on econ calendars are not prices. They're the change in prices. We bring that up in case anyone thi...
Tue, Jun 9 2026, 4:38 PM
Bonds End at Strongest Levels
Unlike yesterday, which saw an uneventful open give way to intraday weakness, ...
Tue, Jun 9 2026, 3:42 PM
Mortgage rates put an end to the most recent spike that followed last Friday's jobs report. Most of the upward movement happened on Friday, but yester...
Tue, Jun 9 2026, 9:51 AM
For the second day in a row , bonds are starting out in modestly stronger territory, but let's hope we don't repeat yesterday's performance. That left...
Mon, Jun 8 2026, 5:18 PM
Bonds Faded in the Afternoon Despite Oil Price Recovery
Oil prices and bond yields started the overnight ses...
Mon, Jun 8 2026, 4:33 PM
The average top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate rose 0.08% last Friday after the jobs report came in much stronger than expected. Today added another 0....
Mon, Jun 8 2026, 9:57 AM
Things got a bit worse before they got better over the weekend. 10yr yields were as high as 4.58% in overnight trading, but are now roughly unchanged ...
Fri, Jun 5 2026, 4:42 PM
At Least It Didn't Get Much Worse After The Initial Rout
If you had to find something reassuring to say abou...
Fri, Jun 5 2026, 2:29 PM
Over the past three months, mortgage rate movement has been driven primarily by developments in the Iran war. It's not that war, itself, is a consider...
Fri, Jun 5 2026, 10:08 AM
Buzz has been growing around the labor market for the past several months, but today's jobs report went the extra mile to make it official. The job ma...
Thu, Jun 4 2026, 4:12 PM
Modest Gains Maintained After Intraday Slippage
Slippage is a bit less severe than leakage. Neither of them ...
Thu, Jun 4 2026, 3:13 PM
After hitting long-term highs on May 19th, mortgage rates dropped somewhat quickly by May 26th. Ever since then, they've been moving back and forth in...
Thu, Jun 4 2026, 9:14 AM
The following newswire hit about an hour before the open: TRUMP: US IN THE MIDDLE OF FINAL NEGOTIATIONS TO END IRAN WAR. Bond yields and oil prices h...
Wed, Jun 3 2026, 3:47 PM
Minimal Change After Overnight Volatility
War headlines struck back in the overnight session. Specifically, ...
