Thu, Feb 12 2026, 4:16 PM
Yields Magically and Mysteriously Sink to Lowest Levels in 2 Months.
At the 3pm CME close, 10yr yields were ...
Thu, Feb 12 2026, 2:35 PM
Just one day after an incredibly strong jobs report--something that would normally create problematic upward momentum for rates--the average lender is...
Thu, Feb 12 2026, 9:07 AM
When the jobs report makes a big statement, bonds are more likely to exhibit elevated momentum and volatility in the following days. In more than a fe...
Wed, Feb 11 2026, 4:09 PM
Stunning Resilience
One could argue that our bar is set too low if we view today's bond market resilience as...
Wed, Feb 11 2026, 2:26 PM
Mortgage rates moved 0.03% higher today. On almost any other day, this would be a bit of a bummer, but in today's case, it's a victory. There was a t...
Wed, Feb 11 2026, 9:48 AM
Nearly an hour after this morning's surprisingly strong jobs report, 10yr yields are only 4.4bps higher at 4.19%. On a normal day, 4.4bps might be a f...
Tue, Feb 10 2026, 3:39 PM
Best Levels in Weeks Ahead of High Stakes Jobs Report
Rather than circle the wagons and consolidate the rece...
Tue, Feb 10 2026, 2:20 PM
Mortgage rates fell on Tuesday following a downbeat Retail Sales report. At 0.05%, it was the largest single-day drop since the uncommonly big 0.15% d...
Tue, Feb 10 2026, 9:42 AM
Last Thursday, we discussed the paradox of a rally in the present moment being driven by future data. More specifically, the three downbeat labor mark...
Mon, Feb 9 2026, 4:31 PM
Early Volatility And a Decent Recovery
Bonds lost ground in the overnight session after Chinese regulators c...
Mon, Feb 9 2026, 3:15 PM
The past 2 weeks have seen very little volatility for mortgage rates. After being near 6% for a week in early January, rates rose abruptly to 6.21% (...
Mon, Feb 9 2026, 11:02 AM
Most nights, Treasuries trade in fairly low volume in a fairly narrow range. Last night's range wasn't much wider than normal, but most of the moveme...
Fri, Feb 6 2026, 3:31 PM
Potential Signs of GSE Buying as MBS Outperform
It was an uneventful day when it comes to scheduled data/eve...
Fri, Feb 6 2026, 12:51 PM
In the bigger picture, the past two and a half weeks have been marked by a very narrow range in the bond market. Because bonds dictate mortgage rates,...
Fri, Feb 6 2026, 9:53 AM
Friday is the quietest day of the week in terms of scheduled econ data and events, with the relatively unimportant Consumer Sentiment being the only n...
Thu, Feb 5 2026, 2:59 PM
Surprisingly Big Bond Rally Relative to The Data
Bonds went on a bit of a buying spree on Thursday. It was t...
Thu, Feb 5 2026, 1:52 PM
Mortgage rates are driven by bonds and that bonds care about employment data. There are quite a few different economic reports that focus on various e...
Thu, Feb 5 2026, 9:21 AM
Bonds were incidentally and inconsequentially stronger to start the overnight session, but began to see better gains after 7am ET. There were two nota...
Wed, Feb 4 2026, 3:57 PM
No Whammies in Wednesday's Data. JOLTS Rescheduled for Thursday
With the big jobs report on hold until next ...
Wed, Feb 4 2026, 2:58 PM
The average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate hit its highest levels in 2 weeks yesterday. The caveat was that the range has been very narrow during t...
Wed, Feb 4 2026, 9:01 AM
Today's two key reports are ADP Employment (8:15am ET) and ISM Services (10am ET). The former came out a bit softer than expected, but bonds didn't r...
Tue, Feb 3 2026, 3:48 PM
Mostly Sideways. Volatility Elsewhere
The legend of the bond market's extreme apathy is increasingly making ...
Tue, Feb 3 2026, 3:23 PM
The bad news: mortgage rates moved up to their highest levels in 2 weeks today. The good news: the rate range has been very narrow during that time,...
Tue, Feb 3 2026, 10:38 AM
While not as disruptive or publicized as the most recent example, there's a partial government shutdown underway. Even if the House passes the funding...
Mon, Feb 2 2026, 4:14 PM
Data-Driven Sell-Off Dominates The Day. No Jobs Report on Friday
Very little changed after this morning's co...
Mon, Feb 2 2026, 3:35 PM
Weakness in the bond market generally means higher mortgage rates. Today was no exception. A key economic report on the manufacturing sector was much ...
Mon, Feb 2 2026, 10:19 AM
Some would say there were warning signs, such as last week's Chicago PMI surging to the 2nd highest level since 2022, but that was generally dismissed...
Fri, Jan 30 2026, 4:36 PM
Volatility Eludes Bonds
Bonds saw some steady selling pressure earlier in the week, but with the total damag...
Fri, Jan 30 2026, 4:10 PM
While there was certainly plenty of volatility elsewhere in the financial market this week, there was almost none to be found in mortgage rates. Wed, ...
Fri, Jan 30 2026, 10:03 AM
PPI... The Producer Price Index. It sounds a lot like CPI because both are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and they share lots of methodol...
Thu, Jan 29 2026, 4:37 PM
Bonds End Up Little-Changed. Other Markets May Have Helped
Bonds began the day with a bit of selling pressur...
Thu, Jan 29 2026, 3:59 PM
Sometimes being tuned into daily mortgage rate changes means coming across other news about financial markets. In today's case, that could expose you ...
Thu, Jan 29 2026, 9:51 AM
Continued jobless claims dropped to the lowest level since October 2024 and bonds are selling off a bit. Those two things may seem like they're clear...
Wed, Jan 28 2026, 4:16 PM
No Surprises From Powell. No Major Movement in Rates
As expected, the Fed held rates steady today. The state...
Wed, Jan 28 2026, 3:51 PM
On some occasions, a rate announcement from the Federal Reserve (even one that results in no change to the Fed Funds Rate) can cause a huge move in mo...
Wed, Jan 28 2026, 2:00 PM
Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate solid pace. Job gains have slowed this year, remained low, ...
Wed, Jan 28 2026, 10:10 AM
Wednesday brings 2026's first Fed announcement, but it's guaranteed to be one of the least interesting. For a start, this is one of 4 annual meetings ...
Tue, Jan 27 2026, 4:15 PM
Gradual Weakness After AM Gains
Bonds began the day in weaker territory, but logged some solid gains in the ...
Tue, Jan 27 2026, 3:40 PM
Today was the 5th day in a row where mortgage rates moved at least a little bit lower. While rate movement is often the product of obvious underlying ...
Tue, Jan 27 2026, 8:37 AM
There are few developments in bond market charts that can lead even fundamental analysts to acknowledge the technicals. One of the most common catalys...
Mon, Jan 26 2026, 3:59 PM
Small, Steady Gains and MBS Outperformance
It was a relatively quiet Monday for the bond market, but not a b...
Mon, Jan 26 2026, 3:20 PM
Mortgage rates trickled modestly lower again today for the 4th straight business day on Monday. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate is the lowest it'...
Mon, Jan 26 2026, 9:05 AM
This week's only marquee calendar event is Wednesday's Fed announcement, and it's unclear what the Fed could possibly do or say to inspire much of a r...
Fri, Jan 23 2026, 4:45 PM
Uneventful Conclusion to a Volatile Week
Bonds put in a decent day on Friday, ultimately getting back into p...
Fri, Jan 23 2026, 2:49 PM
This week's only real mortgage rate movement was seen at the outset on Tuesday morning (Monday was closed for the holiday) in response to geopolitical...
Fri, Jan 23 2026, 9:41 AM
Bonds rallied modestly in the overnight session. There were no notable spikes in volume or volatility--just a gradual grind that took 10yr yields roug...
Thu, Jan 22 2026, 4:07 PM
Bonds Erase Most of The Overnight Weakness
Thursday could be viewed two ways. On one hand, bonds lost ground...
Thu, Jan 22 2026, 3:40 PM
Mortgage rates may not be as low as they were before the weekend's geopolitical headlines, but they've moved just a hair lower on each of the past two...
Thu, Jan 22 2026, 9:40 AM
Bonds found a bid along with stocks yesterday afternoon after Trump announced a "framework of a deal" on Greenland. Markets were much less interested...
Wed, Jan 21 2026, 3:45 PM
Bonds Recovering a Bit After "Framework of a Deal" on Greenland
Geopolitics have been front and center for f...
