Wed, Jan 19 2022, 4:22 PM
Mortgage rates have been having a bad 2022 so far with the average lender up to the highest levels in roughly 2 years as of yesterday. The reason? T...
Wed, Jan 19 2022, 3:58 PM
Decent Day, But There's a Catch
Bonds improved today! The rally was moderate by typical standards, but it f...
Wed, Jan 19 2022, 10:02 AM
Remember last Thursday? Bonds had done a great job of pushing back in a friendly direction after a huge week of selling kicked off the new year. Tha...
Tue, Jan 18 2022, 4:12 PM
One of the very few welcome byproducts of the pandemic was the pervasive availability of new all-time low mortgage rates. Depending on when you c...
Tue, Jan 18 2022, 3:52 PM
Snowball Selling Continues. Why?
In not so many words, most of the rate drama seen during the past 3 weeks i...
Tue, Jan 18 2022, 10:38 AM
Bonds sold off last Friday after 4 days of relative stability and improvement to start the week. Optimists hoped the weakness was a byproduct of the ...
Fri, Jan 14 2022, 7:20 PM
In the past 2 weeks, press coverage of the Federal Reserve's policy outlook has ramped up significantly. The Fed is now expected to start hiking rate...
Fri, Jan 14 2022, 5:51 PM
Friday's Sell-Off Makes Rest Of The Week Look Like a Trap
Over the past 2 days, we've pondered the fate of t...
Fri, Jan 14 2022, 11:41 AM
Friday is not shaping up to be a great day for the mortgage bond market. Our benchmark guidance giver of choice (10yr yield) is in the midst of a pot...
Thu, Jan 13 2022, 4:16 PM
Just Enough of a Rally to Keep Things Interesting
Coming into the day, we were pondering the fate of this we...
Thu, Jan 13 2022, 4:06 PM
In almost every case, a day of bond market improvement results in rates moving lower. That makes sense considering mortgage rates are based primarily...
Thu, Jan 13 2022, 11:12 AM
Whether we refer to it as a correction or consolidation, bonds have enjoyed a few days of moderate gains after selling off abruptly last week. Today'...
Wed, Jan 12 2022, 4:45 PM
Mixed Signals in Data, Events, and The Market Reaction.
The hotly anticipated CPI data came in roughly in li...
Wed, Jan 12 2022, 4:25 PM
Interest rates are typically determined by bond market. Mortgage rates, for instance, are directly tied to mortgage-specific bonds know as mortgage-b...
Wed, Jan 12 2022, 11:36 AM
Yesterday's resilient trading day strengthened the case for a corrective (or consolidative ?) bounce after last week's big yield spike. Traders (a...
Tue, Jan 11 2022, 4:39 PM
2022 has gotten off to a bad start for the bond market and consequently, mortgage rates. The pace has been on the aggressive side with the average ...
Tue, Jan 11 2022, 4:12 PM
Is it Time To Get Excited About a Bounce?
As per the recent norm, bonds were fairly flat overnight and began...
Tue, Jan 11 2022, 10:31 AM
Bonds were unchanged to slightly stronger for most of the overnight session, but are now losing ground modestly. In the context of the previous 2 tra...
Mon, Jan 10 2022, 3:47 PM
A Glimmer of Resilience and a Primer on Which MBS Coupon to Watch
Bonds began the day by resuming the sellin...
Mon, Jan 10 2022, 3:24 PM
Last week wasn't a great one for mortgage rates. Most lenders were roughly a quarter of a point higher on a conventional 30yr fixed scenario by Fri...
Mon, Jan 10 2022, 12:16 PM
Last week saw bonds sell off at their fastest pace in at least 9 months on a combination of a hawkish pivot from the Fed and paradoxical omicron optim...
Fri, Jan 7 2022, 5:00 PM
Seemingly overnight, the mortgage rate narrative has changed rather drastically, at least in relative terms. While rates had risen gradually from near...
Fri, Jan 7 2022, 4:03 PM
Is It The Jobs Report, The Fed, or Something Else?
It's been quite a week of losses for the bond market. Wh...
Fri, Jan 7 2022, 11:24 AM
Nonfarm payrolls came in at 199k versus a median forecast of 400k. On almost any NFP Friday before the pandemic, this would be worth some positivity ...
Thu, Jan 6 2022, 4:18 PM
Stability, But at a Cost; Does NFP Matter Tomorrow?
In terms of intraday volatility, today was arguably the ...
Thu, Jan 6 2022, 3:53 PM
Regular readers know that we're fond of setting the weekly record straight in cases where day-to-day rate movements paint a drastically different pict...
Thu, Jan 6 2022, 12:22 PM
After watching the same consolidation pattern for the past few months and feeling that yields were safely below the upper boundary, that boundary has ...
Wed, Jan 5 2022, 4:39 PM
Big Sell-Off Following Fed Minutes
Even though the bond market thought it knew all it needed to know about t...
Wed, Jan 5 2022, 3:58 PM
The following represents only a portion of the full list of newswire headlines associated with today's Fed Minutes release, but these are likely the m...
Tue, Jan 4 2022, 4:49 PM
Mortgage rates had been drifting modestly higher in general in the past 2 weeks, but the pace is accelerating in the new year. For some lenders, this...
Tue, Jan 4 2022, 4:30 PM
Bonds Still Selling, But at a Slower Pace
In terms of volume, participation, and holiday closures, today was...
Tue, Jan 4 2022, 9:43 AM
Tokyo and London are back in the office today after yesterday's holiday closures. EU yields moved modestly lower from their highest levels in roughly...
Mon, Jan 3 2022, 4:13 PM
The year is not off to a great start for mortgage rates . At the end of last week, we were already looking at the highest levels in months. The s...
Mon, Jan 3 2022, 3:59 PM
Unhappy New Year For Bonds So Far
The first trading day of the new year ended up being one of the worst in m...
Mon, Jan 3 2022, 9:54 AM
Both Tokyo and London were closed overnight, which didn't do anything to help the light liquidity environment of the winter holidays. Domestic accoun...
Fri, Dec 31 2021, 10:30 AM
It's a sign of the times that the only conversations on MBS Live or Refinitiv Eikon's MBS Community pertain to this morning's Encompass outage. Actual...
Thu, Dec 30 2021, 3:22 PM
Bonds Snap Back Into Holiday Mode
Wednesday's abrupt sell-off increasingly looks like the market's way of ge...
Thu, Dec 30 2021, 3:15 PM
Mortgage rates began the week in decent shape, but moved higher somewhat abruptly yesterday. Context is important though. The smallest increment of ...
Thu, Dec 30 2021, 10:19 AM
From the early days of the pandemic, one of the most important realities to consider was that of the eventual recovery, both from the most abject phas...
Wed, Dec 29 2021, 5:10 PM
What's Up With The Big Sell-Off in Bonds?
The omicron narrative is one reason being tossed around for today'...
Wed, Dec 29 2021, 8:57 AM
Treasuries trade almost 24 hours a day (assuming London and Tokyo are not out on holiday), but if the domestic bond market has an unofficial opening b...
Tue, Dec 28 2021, 4:30 PM
Mortgage rates hit their highest level in 2 weeks heading into Christmas weekend. The average lender raised costs by a very small amount again on Mond...
Tue, Dec 28 2021, 4:28 PM
Every Bit As Quiet As It Was Supposed To Be
There's really no way to predict the future when it comes to rat...
Tue, Dec 28 2021, 11:21 AM
Like Monday, bonds traded flat to slightly stronger in Asia, were closed in London, popped a bit higher in early domestic trading, and are now droppin...
Mon, Dec 27 2021, 3:23 PM
Bonds Sticking to Uneventful Script
There was little to observe and even less to report on today's bon marke...
Mon, Dec 27 2021, 12:58 PM
While bonds aren't closed for business this week, it wouldn't much matter if they were--at least not for the average mortgage rate watcher. That's no...
Wed, Dec 22 2021, 7:48 PM
Mortgage rates continued higher for the third straight day on Wednesday. This brings the average lender to the highest levels in exactly 2 weeks. But ...
Wed, Dec 22 2021, 4:02 PM
Sideways, Boring, and Slightly Stronger
10yr futures contract volume was roughly 600k by 3pm. That's on par...
Wed, Dec 22 2021, 11:05 AM
If you've grown tired of hearing about holiday related illiquidity in the bond market or you otherwise are fully up to speed on its implications, you'...
Tue, Dec 21 2021, 4:41 PM
Incidental Weakness
This morning's commentary covers everything that needs to be said in today's closing com...
