Fri, May 8 2026, 3:34 PM
Calm and Slightly Stronger, But Volatility Will be Back
Once or twice per week, the bond market manages to p...
Fri, May 8 2026, 1:52 PM
It ended up being a decent round trip for rates this week. Monday kicked things off with a jump to the highest level in more than a month, and the thi...
Fri, May 8 2026, 9:00 AM
Everyone's been talking about the ongoing change in the significance of the payroll number in the jobs report. OK, not everyone, but economists and bo...
Thu, May 7 2026, 3:24 PM
Another Mid-Day Reversal Driven by Dueling Headlines
The overnight session featured a modest but clearly-def...
Thu, May 7 2026, 2:46 PM
The day began on a fairly hopeful note for the mortgage market. During overnight trading hours, the bond market improved following a report regarding ...
Thu, May 7 2026, 9:08 AM
Bonds and oil rallied again in the overnight session, though not as swiftly as they did yesterday. News was thinner, but there was still an obvious ca...
Wed, May 6 2026, 4:15 PM
Pre-Market Gains Stuck Around All Day
The entirety of the domestic trading session was very flat compared to...
Wed, May 6 2026, 3:40 PM
Mortgage rates spiked sharply on Monday, hitting the highest levels in more than a month as escalation fears ramped up surrounding the Iran war. Yeste...
Wed, May 6 2026, 8:49 AM
There was one, big, obvious market mover overnight. At 4:50am ET, Axios reported that the U.S. and Iran are close to signing a one page memo of unders...
Tue, May 5 2026, 3:20 PM
Data Didn't Hurt, But Bonds Underperformed The Oil Price Recovery
Today's headline is somewhat misleading. I...
Tue, May 5 2026, 2:43 PM
One popular refrain in the mortgage industry is that rates take the escalator on the way up and the stairs on the way down. Yesterday was definitely a...
Tue, May 5 2026, 9:37 AM
After hitting the highest yields in more than a month yesterday, bonds have managed to pick up a few bps. The bulk of the recovery was already in plac...
Mon, May 4 2026, 4:08 PM
Markets Hit by Glut of Escalation Headlines
Monday's trading session ended up being as simple as it was unpl...
Mon, May 4 2026, 3:19 PM
Top-tier 30-year fixed rates are back above 6.5% today for the first time in more than a month for the average lender. Many lenders raised rates durin...
Mon, May 4 2026, 10:09 AM
The overnight and early domestic trading hours have brought a mix of familiar and unfamiliar patterns. Up until roughly 8:30am, we saw a very familiar...
Fri, May 1 2026, 3:27 PM
Some Volatility Surrounding Headlines, But Not Much Change
Bonds began the day roughly flat before losing gr...
Fri, May 1 2026, 1:58 PM
Low volatility was the most obvious theme for mortgage rates last week. From April 14th through last Friday, the range for a top-tier 30yr fixed rate ...
Fri, May 1 2026, 10:35 AM
Bonds were almost perfectly flat during the overnight session along with oil and stock futures. Morning trading ushered in more volatility as the war-...
Thu, Apr 30 2026, 4:29 PM
Bonds Recover With Oil, But Not Completely
Ever since bottoming out together on the morning of April 17th, b...
Thu, Apr 30 2026, 3:09 PM
Mortgage rates spiked on Wednesday (yesterday) after reports suggested a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. As has been the case for most of ...
Thu, Apr 30 2026, 9:40 AM
From an analytical standpoint, it's hard to offer new and interesting insights when the order of any given day is simply to observe broad war-related ...
Wed, Apr 29 2026, 4:42 PM
Today's Weakness Mostly War-Related With Small Boost From Fed
Because today was was a "Fed day" and because ...
Wed, Apr 29 2026, 4:09 PM
Mortgage rates jumped higher today at the fastest pace in weeks to the highest levels since March 30th. There were two key motivations for the increas...
Wed, Apr 29 2026, 2:00 PM
Available Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, on average, and the un...
Wed, Apr 29 2026, 9:31 AM
Last night's key news on the war involved reports of Trump telling aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade of Iran. The free flow of oil through Hor...
Tue, Apr 28 2026, 4:15 PM
Modest Gains After Opening Weaker
Tuesday ended up being a uneventful trading session despite 10yr yields hi...
Tue, Apr 28 2026, 3:32 PM
Mortgage rates moved moderately higher today for the average lender, but not for any exciting reasons. Rather, the change has more to do with timing o...
Tue, Apr 28 2026, 10:27 AM
Bonds sold off slowly and steadily overnight, largely tracing a similarly steady rise in oil prices. The latter is most easily attributed to reports t...
Mon, Apr 27 2026, 3:51 PM
Modest Weakness, But Range Persists
Bonds lost ground today, but not for any particular reason. Most importa...
Mon, Apr 27 2026, 3:21 PM
Despite the elevated volatility risk heading into the weekend, mortgage rates are starting the week in exactly the same territory compared to Friday a...
Mon, Apr 27 2026, 9:44 AM
The word of the day is "stalled." You can't get far reading top news stories over the weekend without seeing it in reference to the negotiations that ...
Fri, Apr 24 2026, 4:02 PM
Similar Volatility But in a Friendlier Direction
The bond market saw a roughly identical amount of volatilit...
Fri, Apr 24 2026, 3:31 PM
With zero change versus Thursday's latest levels, the 30yr fixed mortgage rate index maintained a 0.03% range for the entire week (and 0.04% going bac...
Fri, Apr 24 2026, 9:18 AM
Markets were largely flat overnight but volatility picked up just after 7am ET after headlines suggested US/Iran negotiations could resume as early as...
Thu, Apr 23 2026, 4:43 PM
Volatility Picked Up Despite Lackluster News Quality
It's not exactly a new problem, but the issue of incorr...
Thu, Apr 23 2026, 2:41 PM
Thursday saw a continuation of the recent trend of very low volatility for mortgage rates. The average lender's top-tier 30yr fixed rates were perfect...
Thu, Apr 23 2026, 9:14 AM
Bonds were almost perfectly flat in the overnight session with yields holding inside a 1.5bp range. Oil prices rose initially, but recovered before th...
Wed, Apr 22 2026, 4:09 PM
Uncertainty Extended Indefinitely
Heading into last night's ceasefire expiration, there was a sense that the...
Wed, Apr 22 2026, 3:22 PM
Rates remain focused on oil prices and war-related developments. With yesterday's ceasefire extension and today's ambiguity over the time frame of tha...
Wed, Apr 22 2026, 10:11 AM
As a testament to just how confident the market is/was that neither side is overly interested in escalating the Iran war, Tuesday night's ceasefire de...
Tue, Apr 21 2026, 3:49 PM
Ceasefire Uncertainty Adds to Losses
Bonds were just a bit weaker this morning after the weekly ADP data. Ju...
Tue, Apr 21 2026, 2:49 PM
Technically and officially, today's average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate is the highest since last Monday. The catch is that there hasn't been mu...
Tue, Apr 21 2026, 9:03 AM
Heading into the day, the 8:30am Retail Sales data was the obvious pick among the available economic reports to be a potential market mover. Reality h...
Mon, Apr 20 2026, 4:24 PM
Bonds Only Modestly Weaker After New Escalation Over The Weekend
Bonds/oil/stocks saw a small corrective bou...
Mon, Apr 20 2026, 3:21 PM
Despite some initial signs of volatility in financial markets over the weekend, the bond market managed to avoid losing much ground. Because bonds dic...
Mon, Apr 20 2026, 9:34 AM
Heading into the weekend, all indications were about as promising as they have been that the war was heading toward a peaceful conclusion. This was re...
Fri, Apr 17 2026, 4:29 PM
AM Gains Mostly Stick Around
Everything interesting about today occurred before 9am ET (several war-related ...
Fri, Apr 17 2026, 4:06 PM
Today was a victory for mortgage rates, but not nearly as much of a victory as the underlying bond market would suggest. The good news is that the end...
Fri, Apr 17 2026, 9:20 AM
Bonds were modestly and inconsequentially stronger in the overnight session. By 8am, this brought 10yr yields just under 4.30%. Less than an hour lat...
Thu, Apr 16 2026, 4:26 PM
Volatility Picked Up After a Slow Start
This morning, more than halfway through the international trading da...
