Today, 11:00 AM
10yr yields began the morning in slightly stronger territory, generally following a modest decline in oil prices overnight. That trend actually ran it...
Thu, Sep 24 2026, 5:30 PM
Brutal Day And For The Scariest Reasons
Despite a slightly stronger start and initial promise of resilience ...
Thu, Sep 24 2026, 3:44 PM
More than a few media outlets will tell you that 30yr fixed mortgage rates are just now moving over 7% based on the fact that Freddie Mac's weekly rat...
Thu, Sep 24 2026, 9:34 AM
Let's not get too excited. After all, today's yields are the second highest in 19 years, but still... this morning's price action is better than a sha...
Wed, Sep 23 2026, 4:33 PM
Why Bonds Sold Off So Severely Today
The only number higher than the amount of bonds sold today is the numbe...
Wed, Sep 23 2026, 3:11 PM
The day began like many others over the past several weeks. Bonds hadn't moved much overnight, but were paying some attention to slightly higher oil p...
Wed, Sep 23 2026, 10:27 AM
Bonds lost ground overnight with rising oil prices correlating very well with the higher yields. The selling was minimal and yields remained range bou...
Tue, Sep 22 2026, 4:38 PM
Bonds Bounce Back After Mid-Day Stumble
Bonds began the day in stronger territory following overnight report...
Tue, Sep 22 2026, 4:24 PM
Mortgage rates didn't move much on Tuesday, but at least it was in the right direction. Perhaps more exciting is the fact that the average lender is n...
Tue, Sep 22 2026, 9:12 AM
Bonds began the overnight session in weaker territory and were mostly sideways until roughly 4:30am. At that time, newswires hit regarding an Iranian ...
Mon, Sep 21 2026, 3:59 PM
Sideways and Slightly Stronger
It was a rather uneventful day with bonds holding sideways in a relatively na...
Mon, Sep 21 2026, 3:15 PM
It was a fairly uneventful day for mortgage rates to start the new week. The underlying bond market was slightly stronger. This suggests slightly lowe...
Mon, Sep 21 2026, 9:59 AM
While the Fed may have requested a majority of the market's attention last week, oil prices were saying "ahem... over here." Now this morning, the pos...
Fri, Sep 18 2026, 5:37 PM
Did Japan Sell Treasuries Today?
Bonds sold off medium big on Friday in a move that offered little by way of...
Fri, Sep 18 2026, 4:26 PM
We'd be the first to remind you that mortgage rates are primarily determined by trading levels in the bond market--specifically those for mortgage-bac...
Fri, Sep 18 2026, 9:33 AM
After Thursday's rather triumphant trading session in the bond market, today's moderate losses may be unpleasant or surprising to some. But they shoul...
Thu, Sep 17 2026, 6:39 PM
Even More Confirmation Throughout The Day
It was heartening to see bonds erase yesterday's losses by the tim...
Thu, Sep 17 2026, 2:50 PM
We love it when a plan comes together. Heading into yesterday's Fed announcement, the hope was that a rate hike would reassure investors in longer-ter...
Thu, Sep 17 2026, 10:00 AM
Heading into yesterday's rate hike, recent evidence suggested the longer end of the bond market would appreciate a hike. There was no telling exactly ...
Wed, Sep 16 2026, 6:11 PM
Mortgage rates are definitely higher today--the highest since January 13th, 2025. Today's Fed announcement had something to do with that. But while th...
Wed, Sep 16 2026, 6:08 PM
Huge Volatility After Fed, But The Coming Days Will Tell The Story
Bonds ended the day only modestly worse o...
Wed, Sep 16 2026, 2:00 PM
The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 9 12 – 3 0 vote: The Committee decided to maintain rais...
Wed, Sep 16 2026, 10:24 AM
There are perhaps no other Fed announcements in recent memory worthy of more anticipation than the one we'll get today. While some of the recent data ...
Tue, Sep 15 2026, 4:32 PM
Some Signs of Resilience But It's Still Anyone's Game
After several consecutive business days of abject unpl...
Tue, Sep 15 2026, 3:54 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher for the 6th day in a row on Tuesday and to the highest levels since January, 2025. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate is...
Tue, Sep 15 2026, 10:57 AM
With no meaningful econ data on tap today and no high stakes events, bonds are left to watch news headlines and attend to last-minute positioning goal...
Mon, Sep 14 2026, 3:52 PM
Decent Mid-Day Recovery But No Change to Bigger Picture
Monday wasn't too different from last Friday in that...
Mon, Sep 14 2026, 3:19 PM
On average, the top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate moved up to another new long-term high today of 7.17%. You'd have to go back to January, 2025 to see...
Mon, Sep 14 2026, 10:38 AM
Selling continues to be the path of least resistance for the bond market. Open interest data from Treasury futures suggests Friday's "short-covering" ...
Fri, Sep 11 2026, 5:29 PM
AM Rally Completely Erased By The Close
This morning's paradoxical rally lasted 30 whole minutes. Bonds turn...
Fri, Sep 11 2026, 3:24 PM
Looked at in a vacuum, and up until the last few hours of the day, Friday was no better or worse than the average day over the past several months. Co...
Fri, Sep 11 2026, 9:43 AM
We've been saying for a while that the longer end of the bond market really wants to see the Fed get serious about fighting inflation. This is why yie...
Thu, Sep 10 2026, 4:38 PM
Ugly Snowball Selling Thanks to Oil and Inflation Data
MBS lost nearly a full point by 4pm ET and 10yr yield...
Thu, Sep 10 2026, 2:44 PM
You may have seen other headlines today that reference 30yr fixed rates of 6.76%. Those stories would be citing Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey which...
Thu, Sep 10 2026, 9:18 AM
It's been a rough couple of days for the bond market. Yesterday, it was Bessent and the reaction to the Treasury buyback announcement. Today it is an ...
Wed, Sep 9 2026, 3:52 PM
Bonds to Bessent: Challenge Accepted
When the Yellen Treasury rolled out the buyback program in 2023/2024, t...
Wed, Sep 9 2026, 3:07 PM
What do mortgage rates have to do with Treasuries? Quite a lot, actually. U.S. Treasuries are the bills and bonds issued by the government. In additio...
Wed, Sep 9 2026, 10:30 AM
Not much is going on in terms of scheduled economic events until Thursday and Friday's PPI and CPI reports respectively. Those could be very big deals...
Tue, Sep 8 2026, 3:48 PM
Early Strength Gives Way to Steady Selling
Bonds started the day in fairly good shape with a rally at the op...
Tue, Sep 8 2026, 3:09 PM
Top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rates started the week right where they were on Friday for the average lender. At 6.89%, we're just a hair below the high...
Tue, Sep 8 2026, 9:46 AM
To be sure, bonds are still very tuned-in to oil price movement with a high level of moment-to-moment correlation. That dynamic has seen yields trade ...
Fri, Sep 4 2026, 4:53 PM
Surprisingly Light Selling Given The Econ Data
Today's market reaction to the big beat in NFP (162k vs 56k) ...
Fri, Sep 4 2026, 2:49 PM
Mortgage rates have a long and storied past with the monthly jobs report. Officially titled "The Employment Situation," the Bureau of Labor Statistics...
Fri, Sep 4 2026, 8:42 AM
The jobs count surged higher (162k vs 56k f'cast) in this morning's jobs report. While such wild divergences will have the masses crying foul, and whi...
Thu, Sep 3 2026, 4:24 PM
Still a Resilient Day Despite Afternoon Weakness
The day's most notable development, by far, was the speech ...
Thu, Sep 3 2026, 3:59 PM
Mortgage rates finally had a decent day on Thursday after spending the previous three days inching into the highest levels in more than a year. Part o...
Thu, Sep 3 2026, 9:56 AM
There were two separate positive developments for bonds this morning. The most obvious and actionable example was series of comments from Fed's Waller...
Wed, Sep 2 2026, 5:01 PM
Relatively Drama-Free Day
These things happen from time to time. The bond market finally had an uneventful d...
Wed, Sep 2 2026, 3:08 PM
First things first: when we reference average, daily, top-tier 30yr fixed rates, it is for an ideal scenario that rarely exists in the wild. The avera...
Wed, Sep 2 2026, 10:32 AM
Bonds were initially a hair weaker overnight but reversed course starting around 7am ET as oil prices fell. On the other hand, oil had already begun m...
