Tue, Dec 23 2025, 4:43 PM
Stunning Display of Holiday Trading Weirdness
GDP for Q3 may be ancient history as far as econ data goes, bu...
Tue, Dec 23 2025, 4:11 PM
Mortgage rates have broadly been in a narrow holding pattern for the past 4 months and an even narrower range during December. Today will do nothing t...
Tue, Dec 23 2025, 9:54 AM
We've spent the past several days reiterating and lamenting the onset of the holiday trading doldrums--a time of year that sees vastly lower volumes/l...
Mon, Dec 22 2025, 3:57 PM
Range-Bound Cruise Control, PM Edition
Bonds came into the domestic session at slightly weaker levels and he...
Mon, Dec 22 2025, 3:21 PM
Mortgage rates are tied to movement in the bond market and bonds were close enough to Friday's levels that mortgage rates were essentially unchanged t...
Mon, Dec 22 2025, 10:34 AM
2025 is effectively over when it comes to meaningful shifts in the bond market. The coming days will be so heavily-affected by light volume/liquidity ...
Fri, Dec 19 2025, 4:33 PM
Bond Market in Holiday Mode
Holiday mode is impossible to clearly define when it comes to its impact on the ...
Fri, Dec 19 2025, 4:09 PM
It ended up being a fairly uneventful day for mortgage rates despite scattered speculation about the impact of foreign monetary policy decisions. The ...
Fri, Dec 19 2025, 10:12 AM
There was a fair amount of momentum among financial news sources regarding the potential significance of last night's Bank of Japan (BOJ) announcement...
Thu, Dec 18 2025, 4:53 PM
Limited Follow-Through After Shockingly Big Miss
If you told the average trader that today's core CPI would ...
Thu, Dec 18 2025, 3:44 PM
Officially, there were 2 days at the end of November where the average lender's 30yr fixed rates were just a hair lower (0.02% difference). Otherwise...
Thu, Dec 18 2025, 8:47 AM
Great news for bonds on the inflation front this morning: Core annual inflation came in at 2.6% compared to a 3.0% forecast and 3.0% last time. It's ...
Wed, Dec 17 2025, 4:17 PM
Slightly More Focus Than Normal on Thursday's CPI
Wednesday ended up being an uneventful trading day with bo...
Wed, Dec 17 2025, 3:51 PM
Mortgage rates were perfectly unchanged compared to yesterday's levels for the average lender. This wasn't a huge surprise considering the absence of ...
Wed, Dec 17 2025, 10:35 AM
Wednesday is largely a placeholder as 2025's relevant trading days evaporate. Apart from the year-end influences on the 29th-31st, Thursday's CPI argu...
Tue, Dec 16 2025, 2:42 PM
Unemployment Not High Enough For a Full-Fledged Rally
If the only metric from this morning's jobs report was...
Tue, Dec 16 2025, 2:08 PM
There was a decent chance that rates would have made a fairly big move today in response to the release of November's jobs report. This is the most im...
Tue, Dec 16 2025, 9:05 AM
If there was one metric in this morning's data that should be helping the bond market, it's the uptick in the unemployment rate from 4.4% in September...
Mon, Dec 15 2025, 3:20 PM
Fairly Calm Monday. Jobs Report on Deck
Monday ended up being a forgettable December trading day with modest...
Mon, Dec 15 2025, 2:41 PM
Mortgage rates were just slightly lower to start the new week. This leaves the average lender's top tier 30yr fixed rate almost dead center in the nar...
Mon, Dec 15 2025, 10:00 AM
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is responsible for the two most important economic reports to the bond market: The Employment Situation (aka jobs...
Fri, Dec 12 2025, 4:18 PM
Friday saw mortgage rates move back up near the highest levels of the week, and thus the highest levels of the past 3 months. Thus ends another week w...
Fri, Dec 12 2025, 9:41 AM
There's a noticeable divergence between long and short term bonds since the Fed announcement, and it's becoming more pronounced today. We can conside...
Thu, Dec 11 2025, 4:11 PM
Two-Way Trading But Not Much Day-Over-Day Movement
Bonds had a solid morning, adding moderately to yesterday...
Thu, Dec 11 2025, 3:20 PM
As is sometimes the case on the day following a Fed day, the bond market carried a bit more momentum in the same direction as yesterday afternoon. For...
Thu, Dec 11 2025, 10:22 AM
Bonds are adding moderate to yesterday's post-Fed gains. Most of today's rally has followed this morning's jobless claims data, but we wouldn't necess...
Wed, Dec 10 2025, 4:41 PM
Powell Avoided Throwing Cold Water on Rate Outlook. Bonds Approved
Today's gains ended up being all about Po...
Wed, Dec 10 2025, 4:02 PM
The Fed cut its policy rate by 0.25% today and mortgage rates moved lower after the announcement. That said, those two developments are not related. ...
Wed, Dec 10 2025, 2:00 PM
Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Job gains have slowed this year, and the unemployment rate ...
Wed, Dec 10 2025, 10:14 AM
Bonds were modestly weaker overnight, but have moved back into positive territory after this morning's Employment Cost Index and NYSE. This means 10yr...
Tue, Dec 9 2025, 4:18 PM
Wednesday is All About Dot Plot and Powell
Bonds lost ground moderately and logically on Tuesday in response...
Tue, Dec 9 2025, 3:59 PM
Mortgage rates were surprisingly steady on Tuesday with most lenders roughly in line with Monday's levels. Why surprising? Because the bond market wa...
Tue, Dec 9 2025, 11:36 AM
Tuesday is a fairly straightforward session for the bond market. By now, we assume most of the pre-Fed positioning would be out of the way, and we kn...
Mon, Dec 8 2025, 4:26 PM
Pre Fed Jitters? Not Exactly
Both stocks and bonds began to swoon moments after this morning's 9:30am NYSE o...
Mon, Dec 8 2025, 4:02 PM
Both stocks and bonds lost ground on Monday. This pushed mortgage rates up near their highest levels in just over 3 months (because mortgages are base...
Mon, Dec 8 2025, 10:07 AM
Bonds are under pressure yet again at the start of the new week--insult added to injury coming off of the worst week of selling since the late October...
Fri, Dec 5 2025, 4:40 PM
Technicals Help Reconcile Selling Pressure
In the realm of market commentary, technicals are a vastly overus...
Fri, Dec 5 2025, 4:06 PM
Average mortgage rates drifted slightly higher to end the week, though they remained under the levels seen on Monday and Tuesday. Even then, none of t...
Fri, Dec 5 2025, 10:33 AM
If there's one resounding theme in the bond market this week, it's that trading momentum marched to its own beat with almost zero regard for the avail...
Thu, Dec 4 2025, 4:21 PM
Bond Momentum Continues Ignoring Data
On multiple recent occasions, we've seen bonds make a moderate move on...
Thu, Dec 4 2025, 3:46 PM
Today's mortgage rates a just a hair higher than yesterday's and although yesterday's rates were reasonably close to last Friday's, they were still de...
Thu, Dec 4 2025, 8:53 AM
Bonds were already slightly weaker in the overnight session, but the Jobless Claims data won't be any help. Initial claims fell to 191k--the lowest t...
Wed, Dec 3 2025, 4:33 PM
Weaker Data Endorses the In-Progress Rally
Who knows how today would have ended up if the relevant econ data...
Wed, Dec 3 2025, 4:02 PM
Mortgage rates improved more noticeably today, and while the average rate isn't quite as low as it was last week, it's fairly close. Rates are based...
Wed, Dec 3 2025, 8:37 AM
10yr yields are almost 4bps lower in early trading and the ADP employment report came in at -32k vs a +10k forecast. The logical conclusion would be t...
Tue, Dec 2 2025, 4:02 PM
Steady Gains Throughout The Day
Bonds began the day in modestly weaker territory although MBS were fairly qu...
Tue, Dec 2 2025, 3:33 PM
Unlike Monday, which saw a fairly brisk move toward higher rates, Tuesday barely budged. Additionally, the budging occurred in a friendly direction wi...
Tue, Dec 2 2025, 10:49 AM
The early days of a new trading month and the positioning ahead of next week's Fed announcement have resulted in clear curve trading biases. In Engli...
Mon, Dec 1 2025, 4:04 PM
Complete Silence After AM Volatility
Bonds were mostly flat overnight before a sharp sell-off from 8am throu...
Mon, Dec 1 2025, 3:34 PM
Mortgage rates are based on bonds and the bond market is prone to erratic behavior on major holiday weeks. One of the more common patterns is for the ...
