Mon, Nov 10 2025, 4:27 PM
Counting Down to Ending The Shutdown After Tuesday's Holiday Closure
Bonds were weaker in the overnight sess...
Mon, Nov 10 2025, 3:39 PM
Mortgage rates went into the weekend with a small cushion thanks to movement in the bond market on Friday. Specifically, bonds improved after mortgage...
Mon, Nov 10 2025, 11:18 AM
If members of the House can make it back to D.C. in sufficient numbers, there's a real possibility that the shutdown will end this week. Some marketpl...
Fri, Nov 7 2025, 2:24 PM
Wednesday's mortgage rates were the highest in roughly a month and very close to the highest levels in 2 months. This followed stronger economic data...
Fri, Nov 7 2025, 10:51 AM
Although bonds began the day in roughly unchanged territory, they began losing ground shortly thereafter. Things changed at the 9:30am NYSE open as st...
Thu, Nov 6 2025, 5:14 PM
Have Bonds Found Their Post-Fed Footing?
Looked at one way, bonds have been in a moderate selling trend sinc...
Thu, Nov 6 2025, 4:29 PM
As of yesterday afternoon, mortgage rates were right in line with the highest levels in more than a month. The upward momentum was largely a product o...
Thu, Nov 6 2025, 10:49 AM
The shutdown has not only placed more emphasis on the alternative data that was already in the rotation, but also fueled interest in new sources. One ...
Wed, Nov 5 2025, 4:08 PM
A common recent refrain is that the bond market (which dictates interest rates) is having to make do without many of the most important regularly-sche...
Wed, Nov 5 2025, 10:28 AM
Today is a rare day when it comes to economic data. The first Wednesday of any given month is often an important one for economic data because ISM Se...
Tue, Nov 4 2025, 4:49 PM
Wednesday More Likely to Take Cues From Econ Data
Bonds benefited from heavy stock selling late in the overn...
Tue, Nov 4 2025, 4:33 PM
The average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate was technically 0.01% higher than yesterday, but that's the smallest possible detected move. It's just ...
Tue, Nov 4 2025, 9:53 AM
It doesn't always work like this, but today's overnight session saw the classic "conventional wisdom" trade with stocks prices and bond yields falling...
Mon, Nov 3 2025, 4:00 PM
Light Volatility After Initial Losses
The first day of the new month began with some potential excitement, a...
Mon, Nov 3 2025, 3:32 PM
Up until last week's Fed announcement, the average 30yr fixed mortgage rate was at the lowest levels in more than a year (in many cases, matching the ...
Mon, Nov 3 2025, 11:03 AM
Bonds were moderately weaker in the overnight session with most of the selling arriving at 7:56am ET when Alphabet filed for a large corporate bond of...
Fri, Oct 31 2025, 3:53 PM
Sideways Overall Despite Hawkish Fed Speakers
Although there was some mid-day volatility (early buying follo...
Fri, Oct 31 2025, 3:43 PM
After hitting the highest level in several weeks on Thursday, mortgage rates managed to move moderately lower on Friday. Counterpoint: Friday's rates ...
Fri, Oct 31 2025, 10:29 AM
With the shutdown ongoing, and the big ticket econ data vanished into the void, there's little for the bond market to do apart from get its books in o...
Thu, Oct 30 2025, 4:59 PM
Uneventfully Flat After Initial Weakness
The bond market only had a little more selling to do thanks to the ...
Thu, Oct 30 2025, 3:42 PM
Every now and then, a Thursday comes along where we have to set the record straight on what is actually going on with mortgage rates. That's because F...
Thu, Oct 30 2025, 10:22 AM
The simplest way to understand yesterday's post-Fed sell-off is as follows. The market's enthusiasm for 3 Fed rate cuts in 2025 had grown a bit too la...
Wed, Oct 29 2025, 4:02 PM
Today was not a foregone conclusion and there was no way to know ahead of time that it would end like this, but the outcome is exactly why we've gone ...
Wed, Oct 29 2025, 3:12 PM
Another Hawkish Powell Press Conference Harshes Bonds' Mellow
The Fed cut rates and ended QT. Neither were ...
Wed, Oct 29 2025, 2:01 PM
Recent Available indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year has been expanding at a moderate pa...
Wed, Oct 29 2025, 11:50 AM
Bonds are a hair weaker this morning with losses showing up in the overnight session and mostly flattening out in domestic trading. Without any big t...
Tue, Oct 28 2025, 4:59 PM
Modestly Stronger Ahead of Fed Day
Without any market moving econ data on Tuesday, bonds finally managed to ...
Tue, Oct 28 2025, 4:11 PM
Rates have been flirting with long term lows over the past 2 weeks, but today made it official. Today's average top tier 30yr fixed rate perfectly ma...
Tue, Oct 28 2025, 10:57 AM
First off, bonds are doing fine this morning. 10yr yields are technically higher on the day, but only when compared to yesterday's 5pm levels. As fa...
Mon, Oct 27 2025, 3:41 PM
Bonds Improve After Treasury Auctions
Treasury auctions don't always cause a reaction in bonds, but they did...
Mon, Oct 27 2025, 3:15 PM
Mortgage rates fell to the lowest levels in a month last Tuesday and barely budged through the rest of the week. Now, at the start of the new week, th...
Mon, Oct 27 2025, 10:34 AM
As the shutdown continues, econ data remains sparse. This makes for smaller, more range-bound movement overall with last week making a decent case to ...
Fri, Oct 24 2025, 4:47 PM
Decent Recovery After AM Backtracking
CPI data was a mixed bag for bonds. Top-line numbers fueled a quick r...
Fri, Oct 24 2025, 2:45 PM
This morning brought the release of the much-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI). This is one of the two biggest inflation reports from the U.S. go...
Fri, Oct 24 2025, 9:47 AM
In terms of topline results, CPI was bond friendly with the core at .223 vs .3 and the headline at 0.3 vs 0.4 in monthly terms. Annually, we're runni...
Thu, Oct 23 2025, 5:00 PM
CPI Just as Risky as Usual--Perhaps More So
Bonds sold off on Thursday in a move that was as easy to chalk u...
Thu, Oct 23 2025, 3:22 PM
Mortgage rates were effectively unchanged on Thursday with the average lender very close to the best levels in over a year. But when it comes to the u...
Thu, Oct 23 2025, 10:18 AM
Everything's relative when it comes to rates being high or low, but let's agree that the past 2 years have relentlessly driven home the notion of an i...
Wed, Oct 22 2025, 3:50 PM
20yr Treasury Auction to The Rescue
The day began with a bond market that looked like it might take an oppor...
Wed, Oct 22 2025, 3:14 PM
Mortgage rates were perfectly unchanged today, on average. With that, they remain in line with the lowest levels in more than a year and very close t...
Wed, Oct 22 2025, 11:17 AM
Think back to October 17th. MBS opened slightly weaker and ended the day down about an eighth of a point. That was the last time we had a weaker star...
Tue, Oct 21 2025, 5:07 PM
Slow, Steady Gains Continue
Perhaps the absence of big-ticket econ data has left bond traders to ponder a re...
Tue, Oct 21 2025, 4:29 PM
The bonds that underly mortgage rates were only slightly stronger today, but that's never a bad thing when they closed near the best levels in a year ...
Tue, Oct 21 2025, 11:34 AM
On the one hand, there's not much going on for the bond market these days. The jobs report is a flat-out requirement in terms of informing major chan...
Mon, Oct 20 2025, 4:17 PM
Strange Combo of Excitement and Boredom
Boring stuff first: there was no significant data, news, volume, or ...
Mon, Oct 20 2025, 3:23 PM
Mortgage rates ended last week at the lowest levels in just over a month. It was the 3rd best day in over a year and the 24th best day in over 3 years...
Mon, Oct 20 2025, 11:16 AM
New week. Same grind. We're waiting (likely for a good while longer) for the government shutdown to end before the most relevant econ data can truly e...
Fri, Oct 17 2025, 5:01 PM
Logical Pull-Back on Tamer Tariff Talk, But Mortgages Outperform
If there was only one event to be aware of ...
Fri, Oct 17 2025, 2:22 PM
The average top tier 30yr fixed rate was unchanged on Friday despite the bond market being slightly weaker. Normally, weaker bonds mean higher rates, ...
Fri, Oct 17 2025, 11:53 AM
By process of elimination and ongoing forensic efforts, it's becoming more and more clear that yesterday's mystery rally in the short end of the yield...
