Fri, Jul 17 2026, 4:35 PM
Roughly Unchanged After Gradual Weakness
Bonds ended the day roughly unchanged despite this morning's strong...
Fri, Jul 17 2026, 2:41 PM
The good news is that mortgage rates ended the day at their lowest levels of the week. That's welcome news after Monday's rates matched the highest se...
Fri, Jul 17 2026, 9:35 AM
In a month where bonds have made a visible reconnection with fuel prices thanks to the Iran war resurgence, there have been several notable departures...
Thu, Jul 16 2026, 4:46 PM
Ultimately Uneventful Despite Modest Weakness
Bonds lost ground modestly today with the ultimate damage bein...
Thu, Jul 16 2026, 3:27 PM
While some news stories suggest that rates are the highest in 11 months today, that's not quite true. The highest rates of the year were seen on July ...
Thu, Jul 16 2026, 11:26 AM
The term "crack spread" is quickly becoming mainstream--especially over the past few weeks. It's more of a concept than a specific metric, but it most...
Wed, Jul 15 2026, 3:43 PM
Wednesday's Gains Had More Staying Power Than Tuesday's
Both Tuesday's CPI and Wednesday's PPI came in much ...
Wed, Jul 15 2026, 2:40 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower again today following another lower-than-expected reading on an inflation report. Yesterday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) ha...
Wed, Jul 15 2026, 9:20 AM
The Producer Price Index (PPI) is not normally a huge market mover, but it has its moments of moderate impact. Today is such a moment as PPI did its b...
Tue, Jul 14 2026, 4:42 PM
Why Were 10yr Yields Only a Few bps Lower Today?
If you missed this morning's commentary, the gist is that i...
Tue, Jul 14 2026, 3:17 PM
Our daily 30yr fixed rate index hit 6.75% yesterday. This matched the high from May 19th and is the highest level since late July 29, 2025. The key co...
Tue, Jul 14 2026, 8:56 AM
The Consumer Price Index came in FAR below expectations with a core reading of 0.0 vs 0.2 forecasts. In unrounded terms, it was -0.17%. Headline CPI w...
Mon, Jul 13 2026, 4:12 PM
Interest rates are based on bonds. Because the bonds underlying the average mortgage are fixed rate, inflation is the enemy. Imagine you're an investo...
Mon, Jul 13 2026, 9:21 AM
Bonds are weaker to start the new week and the catalyst is simple. The U.S. ramped up air strikes in Iran, both in terms of number and distance inland...
Fri, Jul 10 2026, 3:50 PM
Some Bond-Specific Weakness in The Afternoon
Oil and Treasury yields were almost perfectly correlated for al...
Fri, Jul 10 2026, 2:39 PM
Rates are based on bonds and bonds have been taking cues from oil prices this week. Oil was flat overnight, bringing bonds along for the sideways ride...
Fri, Jul 10 2026, 10:05 AM
The entire week has been a study in the rekindled love affair between bond yields and oil prices. The latter is fairly flat versus yesterday's latest ...
Thu, Jul 9 2026, 4:11 PM
Slightly Stronger But There's a Catch
Bonds had a decent day with MBS up more than a quarter point and 10yr ...
Thu, Jul 9 2026, 3:39 PM
Mortgage rates were rapidly approaching 10-month highs as of yesterday afternoon. They managed a friendly bounce today, but it was fairly small with t...
Thu, Jul 9 2026, 9:49 AM
Bonds are starting the day just a hair stronger versus yesterday's close and there are three ways to look at it. At the most basic level, the move is ...
Wed, Jul 8 2026, 3:50 PM
More War-Related Weakness, But With a Supportive Bounce
Bonds officially closed at the highest yields in mor...
Wed, Jul 8 2026, 3:03 PM
Mortgage rates have moved higher at a moderate pace over the past 2 days as tensions between The U.S. and Iran see a resurgence. As far as the underly...
Wed, Jul 8 2026, 9:27 AM
Iran-related headlines have jumped back to the realm of relevance this week and Wednesday morning's overnight session kicked things up another notch. ...
Tue, Jul 7 2026, 3:18 PM
Hormuz Back in The News
Iran has attacked a few cargo ships recently and there are repercussions. The peace ...
Tue, Jul 7 2026, 2:53 PM
It's been a while since oil prices were the focal point of the interest rate conversation, but that recently familiar dynamic is once again playing ou...
Tue, Jul 7 2026, 9:46 AM
From summertime Monday to summertime Tuesday... Yesterday's modest strength is now erased by today's modest weakness. In both cases, the movement is t...
Mon, Jul 6 2026, 4:03 PM
Uneventful Summertime Monday
Volume and--sometimes--volatility can be generally lower in the middle of the s...
Mon, Jul 6 2026, 3:23 PM
Volatility is always a risk surrounding 3 day holiday weekends when it comes to markets and mortgage rates, but this time around, things have been ver...
Mon, Jul 6 2026, 10:19 AM
Bonds weathered the 3-day weekend without issue. We started the day modestly stronger, but have moved back closer to unchanged levels in the first 2 h...
Thu, Jul 2 2026, 2:17 PM
Not Reading Too Much Into Late Day Reversal
Bonds rallied quickly in response to this morning's jobs report ...
Thu, Jul 2 2026, 1:05 PM
Today is a half day for financial markets, which is a typical feature of a federal holiday weekend. Because tomorrow is fully closed, the big jobs rep...
Thu, Jul 2 2026, 9:05 AM
Bonds continued drifting gently higher in the overnight session with 10yr yields just barely edging above 4.50% before today's big jobs report (the on...
Wed, Jul 1 2026, 3:46 PM
Bonds Find Some Solace in Warsh Despite a Bit More Selling
The past 2 days have been rough for the bond mark...
Wed, Jul 1 2026, 3:15 PM
In a real sense, today's rate update is more of an addendum to yesterday's rate update. Yesterday afternoon saw heavy, continued selling in the bond m...
Wed, Jul 1 2026, 9:28 AM
Bonds have added modestly to Tuesday's big quarter-end sell-off (a phenomenon that has nothing to do with the sorts of fundamental developments that d...
Tue, Jun 30 2026, 3:59 PM
Why We Saw Steady Selling All Day
We expected volatility would pick up on Tuesday for one reason or another ...
Tue, Jun 30 2026, 2:39 PM
Starting last Thursday, mortgage rates have barely budged. In terms of our 30yr fixed index, the maximum day-over-day change has been 0.02% since then...
Tue, Jun 30 2026, 9:21 AM
Before looking at trading screens this morning, the first order of business would have been to mention the ramp up in economic calendar activity. Whil...
Mon, Jun 29 2026, 3:25 PM
Volatility Risk Ramps Up From Here
Monday made it clear that traders are playing by the typical summertime, ...
Mon, Jun 29 2026, 3:07 PM
Mortgage rates ended last week at the lowest level since May 14th. Most of the recent drop happened last Wednesday, but each day since then has added ...
Mon, Jun 29 2026, 10:24 AM
At the risk of jinxing it, Monday is pretty much already in the back as an uneventful start to a holiday-shortened week (early close on Thursday and f...
Fri, Jun 26 2026, 4:51 PM
Early Gains. Flat Afternoon. MBS Underperform
Friday ended up offering a boring conclusion to a week that ha...
Fri, Jun 26 2026, 3:06 PM
Mortgage rates officially hit their lowest level in more than a month yesterday with MND's 30yr fixed index falling to 6.53% from 6.55% on Wednesday. ...
Fri, Jun 26 2026, 10:01 AM
Q2 has been one of the best quarters for stocks going all the way back to the dot com boom, even after the 4-5% pullback in June. This has created a m...
Thu, Jun 25 2026, 3:27 PM
Mostly Holding Yesterday's Big Gains
Bonds began the day in modestly weaker territory, but not weak enough t...
Thu, Jun 25 2026, 1:45 PM
Mortgage rates had a great day yesterday, moving within 0.01% of the lowest levels in more than a month. They dropped just a bit more today and are no...
Thu, Jun 25 2026, 8:59 AM
The PCE price index may be a less timely report than CPI/PPI when it comes to measuring inflation in the U.S., but it's more thorough and has stronger...
Wed, Jun 24 2026, 3:52 PM
What's Up With Today's Big Rally? (Spoiler Alert: Quarter-End Rebalancing)
Stocks went on a tear in Q2 with ...
Wed, Jun 24 2026, 2:52 PM
Rate momentum shifted noticeably on Wednesday. The underlying bond market saw heavy buying in pre-market trading--likely a result of large-scale quart...
Wed, Jun 24 2026, 9:34 AM
Bonds spend most of the night trading sideways to slightly stronger. Oil prices fell sharply, making it tempting to conclude that's the reason that 10...
