Today, 6:04 PM
Straightforward Gains After Important Inflation Data
While today's monthly core PCE headline may have techni...
Today, 5:37 PM
This week's most important economic data was the PCE price index which is the gold standard of big picture inflation measurement. For those hoping to ...
Today, 11:58 AM
After yesterday's quarter over quarter core PCE price index came in 0.2% higher than expected, we knew today's monthly PCE data would have to include ...
Thu, Jul 25 2024, 3:29 PM
Lots of Competing Motivations Causing Volatility In a Narrow Range
Today marked an uptick in the importance ...
Thu, Jul 25 2024, 2:52 PM
Mortgage rates continue moving in very small steps from day to day--something that's been the case since the Consumer Price Index (CPI) more than 2 we...
Thu, Jul 25 2024, 11:44 AM
It was easy to question the notion of "data dependence" in the first half of the week, largely because there wasn't much in terms of meaningful econom...
Wed, Jul 24 2024, 4:35 PM
Mortgage rates technically moved up to the highest levels in 2 weeks today, but that sounds a bit more dramatic than it actually is. Rates have large...
Wed, Jul 24 2024, 4:30 PM
Whatever Happened to Bonds Being Data Dependent?
Bonds began the day in stronger territory and remained stro...
Wed, Jul 24 2024, 12:07 PM
While they may not be the most highly consequential economic reports on any given month, today's S&P Global PMIs were our best shot to see some volati...
Tue, Jul 23 2024, 4:23 PM
Afternoon Weakness For Longer-Term Bonds. Are MBS in That Category?
It's easy to throw around general catego...
Tue, Jul 23 2024, 3:50 PM
Spats of volatility in the mortgage rate world seem to last only a matter of hours recently and to occur only a few times on any given month. The res...
Tue, Jul 23 2024, 11:39 AM
This morning's market movement continues to build a case against yesterday's mid-day sell-off being serious and purposeful. Bonds have continued to r...
Mon, Jul 22 2024, 5:02 PM
Mid-Day Mystery Move But no Impact on Bigger Picture
The most notable development in the bond market today w...
Mon, Jul 22 2024, 4:51 PM
Mortgage rates rose at a moderately quick pace on Friday, partially in response bond market weakness on Thursday afternoon that happened too late in t...
Mon, Jul 22 2024, 11:22 AM
If there was any remaining doubt that recent political headlines were given too much credit for impacting the bond market, it was removed late Sunday ...
Fri, Jul 19 2024, 5:22 PM
Super Duper Flat After Overnight Losses
In a vacuum limited to this week, Friday ended up being the only int...
Fri, Jul 19 2024, 5:03 PM
While there was never much of a chance of mortgage rates moving above the levels seen at the beginning of last week, they were easily able to nab the ...
Fri, Jul 19 2024, 10:26 AM
This week's bond rally hit a wall at the 3pm close on Wednesday. There's been gradual upward pressure since then with today's overnight session seein...
Thu, Jul 18 2024, 5:08 PM
Morning Volatility, Afternoon Drift
Bonds began the day in modestly weaker territory before undergoing a bit...
Thu, Jul 18 2024, 4:02 PM
Thursday's mark the release of Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey. It's the longest running and most widely cited measure of mortgage rates, b...
Thu, Jul 18 2024, 12:49 PM
Today's Jobless Claims report is for the week ending July 13th. This is important because the establishment survey for the big jobs report (nonfarm p...
Wed, Jul 17 2024, 4:43 PM
More Data Defiance. Maybe It's All About Claims?
Bonds have been trending gently stronger after last week's ...
Wed, Jul 17 2024, 4:26 PM
Despite an active calendar of events that had the potential to cause volatility, average mortgage rates managed to remain unchanged in the morning and...
Wed, Jul 17 2024, 11:28 AM
Just because an economic calendar is full doesn't mean it's of any major importance to the bond market. Today fits the bill with the two economic hea...
Tue, Jul 16 2024, 4:16 PM
Bonds Shake Off Retail Sales Impact to End Stronger
This morning's Retail Sales data may have been right in ...
Tue, Jul 16 2024, 4:00 PM
When is a defeat not really a defeat? Mortgage rates have an idea. They're fresh off an incredibly rare 8 day winning streak that took the average 3...
Tue, Jul 16 2024, 10:41 AM
Retail Sales was/is the biggest data point of the week and it came out perfectly unchanged. This was as-expected according to some data aggregators a...
Mon, Jul 15 2024, 4:45 PM
The Sun Also Sets on Bond Rallies
Don't worry, the headline is much more dire than the underlying message. ...
Mon, Jul 15 2024, 4:36 PM
We occasionally reference 5 day winning streaks for mortgage rates as the sort of uncommon occurrence that greatly increases the odds of at least a te...
Mon, Jul 15 2024, 11:40 AM
While there's no way objectively quantify the political ramifications of the failed assassination attempt on former President Trump over the weekend, ...
Fri, Jul 12 2024, 4:44 PM
Pleasant PPI Paradox Leaves This Week's Big Victory in Focus
The Producer Price Index (PPI) introduced a bri...
Fri, Jul 12 2024, 4:23 PM
Yesterday was all about the CONSUMER Price Index (CPI), which helped mortgage rates drop at the 2nd fastest pace of the year. Today brough the PRODUC...
Fri, Jul 12 2024, 11:40 AM
The Producer Price Index (PPI) is certainly not in the same league as CPI when it comes to bond market impact, but there have been several notable rea...
Thu, Jul 11 2024, 3:53 PM
Rates were prepared to make a big move in one direction or the other heading into today's high stakes inflation data. Fortunately, the Consumer Price...
Thu, Jul 11 2024, 4:42 PM
Very Restrained Bond Rally Considering The Data's Implications
Today's CPI data was hotly anticipated, to sa...
Thu, Jul 11 2024, 10:47 AM
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the most important economic report for the bond market these days. The most important line item in that report is m...
Wed, Jul 10 2024, 4:04 PM
No New Inspiration Ahead of Thursday's CPI
We've officially run out of ways to characterize the boring, side...
Wed, Jul 10 2024, 3:44 PM
Mortgage rates have been in a narrow range for more than a month now with the average top tier 30yr fixed rate staying within striking distance of the...
Wed, Jul 10 2024, 11:07 AM
The most recent sideways slide began just before noon last Friday. Bonds had rallied in response to the jobs report with 10's closing at 4.29%. Sinc...
Tue, Jul 9 2024, 4:29 PM
MBS Outperform. Powell Punts. Waiting on CPI
Bonds showed slightly more notable signs of life this morning w...
Tue, Jul 9 2024, 4:08 PM
Mortgage rates are based on movement in the bond market and bonds haven't been moving much over the past 3 days. That's resulted in very little chang...
Tue, Jul 9 2024, 9:54 AM
The new week is one day less new today, but no less sideways so far. Yields rose microscopically in the overnight session, but even that is a generou...
Mon, Jul 8 2024, 4:10 PM
Uneventful Monday Leaves Bonds Little Changed
It was a quintessential summertime Monday to start the new wee...
Mon, Jul 8 2024, 3:50 PM
Apart from July 1st, mortgage rates have fallen every day so far this month. The counterpoint is that only adds up to 4 business days so far. The o...
Mon, Jul 8 2024, 10:42 AM
Bonds are finding their range in a perfectly inoffensive way to begin the new week. That's a victory considering a bit of weakness is never a surpris...
Fri, Jul 5 2024, 4:33 PM
Orderly, Logical Rally as Bonds Reiterate Data Dependence
Today's recap isn't any different than the morning...
Fri, Jul 5 2024, 4:21 PM
The average top tier 30yr fixed rate may not be back under 7% just yet, but as of Friday, it is back below the levels seen last Friday. That fact is ...
Fri, Jul 5 2024, 11:24 AM
Today's playbook was fairly straightforward with bonds being likely to move in the direction suggested by the jobs report. The only challenge would h...
Wed, Jul 3 2024, 2:18 PM
Data Over Politics, For Now
Several days ago, we were debating whether the presidential debate or the month-...
Wed, Jul 3 2024, 2:09 PM
"Data dependent" is one of the most common phrases heard from the Federal Reserve these days when it comes to rate-setting policy. And while the Fed ...
