Today, 4:44 PM
Powell Press Conference Trumps The Dots, Sparking Moderate Sell-Off
Of today's Fed events (rate announcement...
Today, 3:53 PM
Several things happen on Fed Day--especially on the 4 out of 8 examples with updated rate forecasts from Fed members. The official announcement of a ...
Today, 2:00 PM
Although swings in net exports continue to affect the data, recent Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first...
Today, 10:51 AM
The Fed rate announcement is at 2pm ET. A single 25bp rate cut is fully priced in to the bond market and that cut will not be responsible for any vola...
Tue, Sep 16 2025, 4:03 PM
Big Shift Toward 5.0 Coupons Continues
Mortgage rates have lurched rapidly lower in September as 5.0 UMBS ha...
Tue, Sep 16 2025, 3:18 PM
Mortgage rates dropped sharply lower today relative to the amount of movement in the underlying bond market with the average lender right in line with...
Tue, Sep 16 2025, 10:02 AM
After last week's CPI data was taken mostly in stride, the only other potential economic data hurdle was this morning's Retail Sales report. Whereas C...
Mon, Sep 15 2025, 3:47 PM
Uneventful Rally. Retail Sales on Deck
Bonds began the week on a stronger note, but not for any glaringly ob...
Mon, Sep 15 2025, 3:12 PM
Mortgage rates have done almost nothing but move lower over the past 4 months. The first Fridays in August and September account for about half of the...
Mon, Sep 15 2025, 11:25 AM
For all the time we spend pushing back on the notion that the Fed Funds Rate is a root cause for volatility in longer-term rates, that push-back alway...
Fri, Sep 12 2025, 3:43 PM
Incidental, Inconsequential Weakness Ahead of Fed Week
Bonds began the day in modestly weaker territory and ...
Fri, Sep 12 2025, 3:20 PM
The underlying bond market (which dictates the rates offered by mortgage lenders) weakened moderately overnight. Weaker bonds equate to higher rates,...
Fri, Sep 12 2025, 11:11 AM
Bonds began the week with 10yr at 4.07 before rallying down to 4.04 by Monday's close. Now on Friday, we're opening at 4.06 and we haven't spent much...
Thu, Sep 11 2025, 4:25 PM
Very Calm Reaction But Not Too Surprising
One could argue that CPI is the next biggest potential market move...
Thu, Sep 11 2025, 3:51 PM
Today's inflation report (the Consumer Price Index or CPI) certainly had a chance to create volatility for rates, but things ended up staying fairly c...
Thu, Sep 11 2025, 12:10 PM
It's an interesting morning for economic data and the bond market's reaction. At face value, CPI was mostly in line with forecasts, but unrounded num...
Wed, Sep 10 2025, 4:28 PM
Helpful Data and Treasury Auction Set High Bar For CPI
Another fairly straightforward day for the bond marke...
Wed, Sep 10 2025, 4:02 PM
Wednesday brought the first of this week's two key inflation reports. While the Producer Price Index (PPI) is the lesser of the two in terms of potent...
Wed, Sep 10 2025, 11:27 AM
Of the two inflation reports out this week, PPI is the lesser of the two in terms of importance, but it came in far enough below forecasts to prompt s...
Tue, Sep 9 2025, 4:04 PM
Post-NFP Rally Momentum Fades
When bonds string together several successive days of improvement, the probabi...
Tue, Sep 9 2025, 3:19 PM
It had to happen at some point. After spending 4 straight days of setting new 11-month lows, mortgage rates finally moved higher today, but the headli...
Tue, Sep 9 2025, 10:31 AM
On August 1st, Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) not only came out weaker than expected, but the previous two reports were also revised significantly lower. This...
Mon, Sep 8 2025, 3:34 PM
To their credit, most mortgage lenders did an admirable job of aggressively pricing-in the bond market rally after last Friday's jobs report. Many mor...
Mon, Sep 8 2025, 3:33 PM
More Gains Despite Absence of New Motivation
There's not much to say about Monday other than "we'll take it!...
Fri, Sep 5 2025, 4:44 PM
Textbook Reaction With Minimal Volatility
The bond market's reaction to today's jobs report was a textbook e...
Fri, Sep 5 2025, 12:32 PM
It may seem like today's bond market movement alone (3/8ths higher in MBS and 0.09% in 10yr yields) doesn't explain the pace of improvement in mortgag...
Fri, Sep 5 2025, 11:51 AM
It's a well-known fact that the monthly jobs report is more capable of causing big reactions in rates than any other economic data. It happened last m...
Fri, Sep 5 2025, 9:07 AM
It's a fairly straightforward morning with NFP coming in much weaker than expected with additional net-negative revisions to the previous 2 months. Th...
Thu, Sep 4 2025, 3:54 PM
Bonds Positioning For Weaker NFP?
One of the best things to understand about the jobs report is that the pay...
Thu, Sep 4 2025, 3:22 PM
The jobs report is the most important scheduled event each month as far as interest rates are concerned. The last installment helped get the average 3...
Thu, Sep 4 2025, 10:33 AM
Thursday morning's slate of econ data was the most active of the week with claims, layoffs, ADP, and ISM Services (also the Trade Gap and Labor Costs,...
Wed, Sep 3 2025, 4:21 PM
Straightforward Data-Driven Rally
It proved to be an incredibly straightforward day for the bond market. Tr...
Wed, Sep 3 2025, 3:42 PM
October 3rd is a date that has come up many times in the past month of mortgage rate coverage. That's because there's been a veritable chasm between t...
Wed, Sep 3 2025, 10:12 AM
Bonds were flat to just slightly stronger in the overnight session but a noticeable rally is underway following the JOLTS data (job openings and labor...
Tue, Sep 2 2025, 4:33 PM
Still in The Range as Bonds Wait For Bigger Influences
Bonds were noticeably weaker to start the new month w...
Tue, Sep 2 2025, 3:57 PM
Mortgage rates are based on bonds and bonds can do funny things on the first and last trading days of any given month. One of the most common "funny t...
Tue, Sep 2 2025, 10:31 AM
The Tuesday after Labor Day can have a mind of its own when it comes to financial markets--especially if it also happens to be the trading day of the ...
Fri, Aug 29 2025, 4:21 PM
Calm Day to End A Calm Week
While Friday itself may not have resulted in a rally for the broader bond market...
Fri, Aug 29 2025, 2:30 PM
It was a very slow and steady week for mortgage rates. On all 5 days, the average top tier 30yr fixed rate moved by 0.02% or less. This is a small en...
Fri, Aug 29 2025, 11:44 AM
There are two big picture inflation reports in US that address consumer prices: CPI and PCE. Of the two, PCE is broader and more highly regarded by po...
Thu, Aug 28 2025, 4:15 PM
Generally Exciting, But Specifically Boring
Heading into the present week, it was incredibly unlikely that w...
Thu, Aug 28 2025, 3:15 PM
There is no singular, official primary source for mortgage rate levels. The going rate is whatever can be locked/closed at any given lender. As such, ...
Thu, Aug 28 2025, 9:10 AM
This morning's economic calendar only looks robust on paper. While quarterly GDP results in numerous line items, they're not as important as they mig...
Wed, Aug 27 2025, 5:12 PM
Steady Gains After Slightly Weaker Start
Bonds began the day in slightly weaker territory, but not for any p...
Wed, Aug 27 2025, 3:44 PM
It continues to be the case that day-to-day changes in average mortgage rates are very small. Today was no exception in that regard. Nonetheless, toda...
Wed, Aug 27 2025, 11:18 AM
Not that this week's economic calendar is especially robust, but Wednesday's offerings are especially light. There are no monthly economic reports on ...
Tue, Aug 26 2025, 5:46 PM
Modest, Incidental Victory
Bonds closed with MBS in line with their best levels of the day, up an eighth of ...
Tue, Aug 26 2025, 5:15 PM
Mortgage rates tend to move at least a little every day although they haven't been moving too much in the bigger picture recently. The only truly memo...
Tue, Aug 26 2025, 10:30 AM
Focusing only production MBS coupons and longer-term Treasuries, the bond market is off to another slow, sideways start today with minimal change vers...
Mon, Aug 25 2025, 4:32 PM
Fairly Quiet Monday Considering Last Week's Noise
In last week's defense, it really wasn't that noisy, but F...
