Fri, Jul 18 2025, 5:28 PM
Needle Threaded. Now What?
As always, big-ticket data and/or news headlines have potential energy in terms...
Fri, Jul 18 2025, 5:10 PM
While any rate watcher's bingo card should always have a few squares devoted to "unchanged, flat, etc.," this week's had at least as many squares rese...
Fri, Jul 18 2025, 12:02 PM
At the end of a week with a few big ticket economic reports and unexpected headline-induced volatility, who wouldn't like a break? Friday's calendar ...
Thu, Jul 17 2025, 3:55 PM
Bonds Unfazed by Econ Data
If you had to guess at the bond market's response this morning based solely on th...
Thu, Jul 17 2025, 2:51 PM
Despite all of the economic data and news headlines over the past few days, mortgage rates have barely budged since last Friday. That was not what we ...
Thu, Jul 17 2025, 10:52 AM
There were multiple economic reports on tap this morning (4 of them in the 8:30am slot), but the headliner on a Retail Sales day is almost always goin...
Wed, Jul 16 2025, 3:48 PM
Bonds Give Free Preview of Post-Powell Momentum
Everyone loves a good free preview, but not all of the bond ...
Wed, Jul 16 2025, 3:06 PM
This morning brought another inflation report. Given the negative reaction to yesterday's inflation data, there was some cause for concern. Thankfully...
Wed, Jul 16 2025, 10:21 AM
Tuesday's CPI reaction was frustrating. Bonds rallied for an hour only to sell off for the rest of the day starting at 9:30am. Things are off to a di...
Tue, Jul 15 2025, 4:08 PM
What's Up With The Paradoxical CPI Reaction?
Heading into today's data, we knew there was a possibility of t...
Tue, Jul 15 2025, 3:06 PM
Mortgage rates are based on bonds and bonds don't like inflation. When inflation reports are higher than the market expected, rates tend to rise, all...
Tue, Jul 15 2025, 9:29 AM
If market watchers get out their magnifying glasses, they can certainly find some evidence of tariffs impacting inflation in various goods, but those ...
Mon, Jul 14 2025, 3:27 PM
All Eyes on CPI
Bonds have sold off a bit so far in July, but haven't lost much more ground versus last Tues...
Mon, Jul 14 2025, 2:59 PM
Today's movement in mortgage rates, in and of itself, is barely worth mentioning. The average lender remains close enough to Friday's levels but is t...
Mon, Jul 14 2025, 10:33 AM
Monday is proving to be a good candidate for a bonus summertime weekend day so far. Volumes and volatility were low overnight and trading levels are i...
Fri, Jul 11 2025, 5:09 PM
Bonds Bracing For CPI Impact
Stocks sold off quickly in the overnight session in response to the announcemen...
Fri, Jul 11 2025, 1:45 PM
Yesterday, we characterized the prevailing mortgage rate momentum as "broadly sideways," and while that's still very true in the bigger picture, words...
Fri, Jul 11 2025, 10:31 AM
In terms of news that seems like it should be important, the biggest overnight development was the announcement of a 35% tariff on Canadian imports st...
Thu, Jul 10 2025, 5:07 PM
Fed Speakers and Auction Help Bonds Hold Steady
Bonds technically lost a small amount of ground today, but i...
Thu, Jul 10 2025, 4:49 PM
Most of this week's mortgage rate movement has been an aftershock following last week's jobs report. That data sent rates quickly higher and that mome...
Thu, Jul 10 2025, 11:33 AM
You would be hard pressed to find a week with less to offer in terms of scheduled economic data. In fact, it's not an overstatement to say that regul...
Wed, Jul 9 2025, 4:30 PM
Correction to the Correction. Will it Last?
Hindsight is 20/20 and foresight may have been close enough this...
Wed, Jul 9 2025, 3:35 PM
It's a bit of a stretch to refer to the past week as a "losing streak" for mortgage rates. The worst part about it was the consistency of upward movem...
Wed, Jul 9 2025, 10:09 AM
Anyone who's spent much time around MBS Live knows about our favorite mantra regarding predictions. Specifically, they are for suckers--at least in t...
Tue, Jul 8 2025, 3:44 PM
Correction Starting to Level Off?
Even though very little changed during the course of the trading day, one ...
Tue, Jul 8 2025, 3:26 PM
Bad news first: mortgage rates have been moving steadily higher in July with the average top tier 30yr fixed scenario rising from 6.67% to 6.81% in ju...
Tue, Jul 8 2025, 11:26 AM
Amid a complete absence of actionable economic data in the new week, stocks and bonds have been left to focus on new developments on the tariff front....
Mon, Jul 7 2025, 4:19 PM
Correction Continues Despite Tariff Announcements
Bonds were moderately weaker to start the day and continue...
Mon, Jul 7 2025, 3:13 PM
For the entire 2nd half of June, it was easy to be spoiled by the absence of volatility in mortgage rates. During that time, rates were either lower o...
Mon, Jul 7 2025, 10:16 AM
Fresh off the rally reversal courtesy of last week's jobs report, the bond market now finds itself in a virtually data-free week with little else to i...
Thu, Jul 3 2025, 3:25 PM
Big Market Reaction but Mortgages Outperform
Today's jobs report would have been bad for rates if it was eve...
Thu, Jul 3 2025, 2:56 PM
Today brought the hotly anticipated jobs report. This is the "official" job count and unemployment rate data for the U.S. and no other report has as ...
Thu, Jul 3 2025, 10:23 AM
Apart from the fact that this morning's jobs report contrasted starkly from the slew of anecdotal evidence suggesting a weaker labor market in June, t...
Wed, Jul 2 2025, 3:43 PM
Bonds Circle The Wagons Ahead of High Risk NFP
The consensus for tomorrow's NFP (nonfarm payrolls, the princ...
Wed, Jul 2 2025, 2:53 PM
Mortgage rates have generally been falling since May 21st and have done nothing but move lower for more than 2 weeks. That winning streak finally cam...
Wed, Jul 2 2025, 9:54 AM
ADP employment was this morning's key economic report and it came out sharply weaker than expected (-33k vs 95k f'cast). There are many past examples ...
Tue, Jul 1 2025, 4:06 PM
Traders Buy The Dip After AM Data
After a bit of overnight strength and an early morning pull-back, bonds we...
Tue, Jul 1 2025, 3:09 PM
It's been 88 days since the average 30yr fixed mortgage rate was as low as it is today--close enough to 3 months. Some lenders may be higher or lower...
Tue, Jul 1 2025, 10:33 AM
Tuesday brings the week's first decent dose of meaningful economic data with both S&P/ISM Manufacturing PMIs and Job Openings. The PMI data was somew...
Mon, Jun 30 2025, 4:45 PM
Steady Gains in the PM Hours
It's common to see the effects of month/quarter-end trading most prominently in...
Mon, Jun 30 2025, 3:28 PM
April 3rd and 4th saw the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rates well into the "mid 6's." Many lenders were able to quote 6.5% at the time. Just...
Mon, Jun 30 2025, 10:14 AM
Month/quarter end trading is a somewhat esoteric and potentially frustrating concept for the typical market watcher because it seemingly violates the ...
Fri, Jun 27 2025, 3:24 PM
Modest Friday Bounce Does Little to Alter Bigger Picture
After a decent mid-day recover, bonds gave up their...
Fri, Jun 27 2025, 1:16 PM
Friday's mortgage rates ended up being right in line with Thursday's on average. At 6.72%, the MND daily rate index is as low as it's been since earl...
Fri, Jun 27 2025, 10:04 AM
Bonds are slightly weaker to start the final trading day of the week, but that has nothing to do with this morning's PCE data. Despite being the Fed'...
Thu, Jun 26 2025, 3:32 PM
The Trend is Friendly For Now
A common financial market quip is that the "trend is your friend." We like to...
Thu, Jun 26 2025, 3:02 PM
After topping out on May 21st, the average day for mortgage rates has been a good one. This has been especially true since June 6th with our 30yr fix...
Thu, Jun 26 2025, 10:25 AM
Visually, the number of line items in this morning's economic calendar may seem daunting. In fact, several of the reports sound like they should matte...
Wed, Jun 25 2025, 4:21 PM
Mid Day Reversal Leaves Bonds Slightly Stronger
This morning, we noted the lightness of the selling pressure...
Wed, Jun 25 2025, 3:21 PM
The average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate had already dipped to the lowest levels since May 1st at the start of the week. Two additional days of ...
