Today, 3:46 PM
Could Have Been Better. Could Have Been Worse
If the bond market was a Mario Bro, it found a gold star at so...
Today, 2:18 PM
After dropping sharply over the past 5 days, mortgage rates finally reminded us that they're still capable of moving higher. Thankfully, today's bump ...
Today, 10:06 AM
The past two days saw a unique confluence of factors that led to a precipitous, unexpected, and fairly large rally in the bond market. The easiest sca...
Thu, Oct 15 2026, 4:09 PM
Mortgage rates dropped again today, and at a much faster pace than yesterday's decline. Top tier 30yr fixed rates are now down to 7.33% for the averag...
Thu, Oct 15 2026, 4:07 PM
Exciting Times, But Don't Get Too Excited
There's no question that the past 5 days have been the best 5 days...
Thu, Oct 15 2026, 9:42 AM
Core PPI was up 0.7 vs 0.3 forecast this morning. That's something that would normally send yields much higher. But everything is different this morni...
Wed, Oct 14 2026, 3:43 PM
You won't see too many days like today when it comes to mortgage rates and the underlying bond market that drives them. Bonds were eagerly awaiting th...
Wed, Oct 14 2026, 9:48 AM
Unrounded core CPI came in at 0.335, which nearly rounds to 0.4% versus an expectations of 0.2%. This is a big surprise when it comes to inflation da...
Tue, Oct 13 2026, 2:53 PM
Light Volatility and Modest Gains Ahead of CPI
Bonds were modestly stronger in the overnight session in a mo...
Tue, Oct 13 2026, 2:35 PM
It was an uneventfully good day for mortgage rates. Unlike the average day over the past several weeks, there was minimal intraday volatility in the u...
Tue, Oct 13 2026, 9:57 AM
Tuesday morning joins a fairly long list of trading days where overnight bond market movement cannot be cleanly connected to news headlines or econ da...
Fri, Oct 9 2026, 4:38 PM
Another Nice Round Trip For Bonds--Especially MBS
Nothing new or interesting happened today in terms of unde...
Fri, Oct 9 2026, 2:37 PM
Even though the underlying bond market is in slightly weaker shape today, mortgage rates ended up trickling just a bit lower than yesterday's latest l...
Fri, Oct 9 2026, 9:50 AM
After yesterday's nice comeback, here's how we're thinking about today. Fridays before 3-day weekends:
frequently see a move to the sidelines amon...
Thu, Oct 8 2026, 4:16 PM
Yields "Plummet" to Best Level In...
4 trading days... All the way back on October 2nd (last Friday), intra...
Thu, Oct 8 2026, 4:06 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower today at their fastest pace in 3 months with the average top-tier 30yr fixed scenario ultimately falling 0.09%. There were ...
Thu, Oct 8 2026, 9:36 AM
Bonds were initially moderately weaker this morning morning in a move that followed oil prices and hawkish Fed comments. Chris Waller said more hikes ...
Wed, Oct 7 2026, 4:56 PM
Full Recovery!
The patient looked critical this morning with 10yr yields pushing up to new long-term highs j...
Wed, Oct 7 2026, 3:50 PM
It was an exciting day for mortgage rates, and while we technically ended up slightly higher, it could have been much worse. In fact, it WAS much wors...
Wed, Oct 7 2026, 10:07 AM
If there's been a safe bet to make on isolated rally days over the past 2 months, it's that they'll be soon followed by a return to the prevailing tre...
Tue, Oct 6 2026, 4:02 PM
Today Was "Nice" For Bonds
Bonds bucked their prevailing trend and managed to move slightly lower in yield t...
Tue, Oct 6 2026, 3:40 PM
Mortgage rates actually fell today--something they've done only 7 times since August 25th. While the outright levels remain near the highest since 200...
Tue, Oct 6 2026, 10:00 AM
If rate movement were a car, it's been driving pretty recklessly recently, and definitely not keeping good pace with other motorists. But every now an...
Mon, Oct 5 2026, 4:41 PM
What Will it Take For Bonds to Recover?
Another day, another sell-off without any satisfying explanations. T...
Mon, Oct 5 2026, 4:18 PM
The good news is that today's average top-tier 30yr fixed rate ended only 0.01% higher than last week's high (7.61 vs 7.60). If you are only intereste...
Mon, Oct 5 2026, 10:46 AM
Another week begins with the frustrating reality of the bond market selling just because there's no reason to buy. To be fair, 2yr yields are unchange...
Fri, Oct 2 2026, 4:42 PM
Why Bonds Sold Off Despite Weaker Jobs Report
First off, read the AM commentary if you haven't already. This...
Fri, Oct 2 2026, 3:03 PM
Mortgage rates rose 0.04% today to an index value of 7.57% for a top-tier 30yr fixed scenario for the average lender today. That uptick in and of itse...
Fri, Oct 2 2026, 9:36 AM
MBS are up more than 3/8ths and the 10yr is down almost 6bps at the lowest levels in a week after the job count came in at 29k vs 90k f'cast. That's t...
Thu, Oct 1 2026, 4:46 PM
Thursday's Rally Sets Up For a Very Interesting Friday
Of course we had to have a big, interesting move in t...
Thu, Oct 1 2026, 4:09 PM
It's a rarity these days, but mortgage rates actually moved lower today by more than a token amount. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate fell to 7.54...
Thu, Oct 1 2026, 10:35 AM
Sometimes we see a distinct shift in momentum on the first day of a new month. This is not one of those times. October 1st picks up where September 30...
Wed, Sep 30 2026, 5:01 PM
Just Another Bad Day For Bonds Without New Justification
10yr yields hit another long-term high today, break...
Wed, Sep 30 2026, 4:06 PM
For a few moments this morning, it looked as if rates might buck the recent trend and recover a bit of ground today. The underlying bond market was fa...
Wed, Sep 30 2026, 9:34 AM
Core PCE came in at 0.2 vs a 0.3 forecast, and the bond market rallied a bit in response. That said, the unrounded number was .247, which about as hig...
Tue, Sep 29 2026, 4:56 PM
Big Intraday Round Trip For Bonds; Williams Helped
Bonds spent the first half of the day pressing into even ...
Tue, Sep 29 2026, 4:03 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher again on Tuesday as the bond market continues recalibrating expectations for Fed policy, economic growth, and inflation. T...
Tue, Sep 29 2026, 9:37 AM
Bonds were initially modestly stronger overnight, but mostly sideways in the bigger picture. Right at the 8:20am CME open, bond sellers were clearly w...
Mon, Sep 28 2026, 5:18 PM
Bond-Specific Weakness
Over the past 6 months, as bonds continued to sell off, there was frequently some sol...
Mon, Sep 28 2026, 4:07 PM
Despite Friday afternoon's promising bond market rally and mortgage rate improvement, today's top tier 30yr fixed rate bounced back up. The average le...
Mon, Sep 28 2026, 10:10 AM
Bonds lost ground overnight with traders reacting to Trump's rejection of Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This isn't the first time th...
Fri, Sep 25 2026, 5:19 PM
Respectable Recovery. Is It a Trap?
First thing's first: the parabolic flourish of bond selling of the past ...
Fri, Sep 25 2026, 2:36 PM
(NOTE: This article was updated at 5:30pm from the version originally published at 2:36pm ET to reflect late day rate improvements). Mortgage rates ...
Fri, Sep 25 2026, 11:00 AM
10yr yields began the morning in slightly stronger territory, generally following a modest decline in oil prices overnight. That trend actually ran it...
Thu, Sep 24 2026, 5:30 PM
Brutal Day And For The Scariest Reasons
Despite a slightly stronger start and initial promise of resilience ...
Thu, Sep 24 2026, 3:44 PM
More than a few media outlets will tell you that 30yr fixed mortgage rates are just now moving over 7% based on the fact that Freddie Mac's weekly rat...
Thu, Sep 24 2026, 9:34 AM
Let's not get too excited. After all, today's yields are the second highest in 19 years, but still... this morning's price action is better than a sha...
Wed, Sep 23 2026, 4:33 PM
Why Bonds Sold Off So Severely Today
The only number higher than the amount of bonds sold today is the numbe...
Wed, Sep 23 2026, 3:11 PM
The day began like many others over the past several weeks. Bonds hadn't moved much overnight, but were paying some attention to slightly higher oil p...
Wed, Sep 23 2026, 10:27 AM
Bonds lost ground overnight with rising oil prices correlating very well with the higher yields. The selling was minimal and yields remained range bou...
