Fri, Apr 17 2026, 4:29 PM
AM Gains Mostly Stick Around
Everything interesting about today occurred before 9am ET (several war-related ...
Fri, Apr 17 2026, 4:06 PM
Today was a victory for mortgage rates, but not nearly as much of a victory as the underlying bond market would suggest. The good news is that the end...
Fri, Apr 17 2026, 9:20 AM
Bonds were modestly and inconsequentially stronger in the overnight session. By 8am, this brought 10yr yields just under 4.30%. Less than an hour lat...
Thu, Apr 16 2026, 4:26 PM
Volatility Picked Up After a Slow Start
This morning, more than halfway through the international trading da...
Thu, Apr 16 2026, 3:52 PM
On average, today's top-tier 30 year fixed mortgage rates are exactly the same as yesterday's. Rates are driven by the bond market and bonds continue ...
Thu, Apr 16 2026, 9:33 AM
Thursday has thus far been the slowest and most sideways day since February 24th, before the start of the Iran war. A lull in war-related developments...
Wed, Apr 15 2026, 3:59 PM
Very Small Token Pull-Back
Nothing really happened on Wednesday as far as the bond market was concerned. Yie...
Wed, Apr 15 2026, 3:20 PM
On Tuesday, the average top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate hit the lowest level in exactly 4 weeks. If you're not interested in splitting hairs, today'...
Wed, Apr 15 2026, 10:34 AM
Markets have plenty of war-related headlines to digest at any given moment these days. And while some of those headlines have been the biggest market ...
Tue, Apr 14 2026, 4:27 PM
Bonds Ultimately Follow Oil's Lead, Heading Lower War-Related Optimism
While there were no incredibly memora...
Tue, Apr 14 2026, 3:23 PM
Mortgage rates had their best day of the month so far with the top tier 30yr fixed rate falling 0.08% for the average lender to the lowest levels in e...
Tue, Apr 14 2026, 10:29 AM
Bonds were fairly flat overnight and haven't moved much so far in the domestic session. More importantly, until 7am, bonds were slightly weaker even a...
Mon, Apr 13 2026, 4:08 PM
Weekend Selling Reverses After Another Round of De-Escalation Headlines
Another day, another chance to sort ...
Mon, Apr 13 2026, 3:30 PM
Mortgage rates are based on movement in the bond market and although bonds experienced some volatility in response to Iran war news over the weekend, ...
Mon, Apr 13 2026, 10:22 AM
Heading into the weekend, the big news was that the U.S. and Iran would meet in Pakistan to negotiate a peace deal. But by Sunday morning, the talks h...
Fri, Apr 10 2026, 4:22 PM
Bonds Drift Weaker Despite Lower Oil Prices
Although they still technically made positive progress versus th...
Fri, Apr 10 2026, 1:44 PM
If we're splitting hairs, today's average mortgage rates are technically higher than yesterday's, but the change is so small that it's just as fair to...
Fri, Apr 10 2026, 9:06 AM
The median forecast for monthly core CPI was 0.28% (0.3 after rounding up for most econ calendars). Today's actual number was 0.196--obviously quite a...
Thu, Apr 9 2026, 3:55 PM
Roughly Unchanged After Moderate Headline-Driven Volatility
As has been the recent custom, there were duelin...
Thu, Apr 9 2026, 3:25 PM
Many borrowers will see no difference between yesterday and today's mortgage rate quotes. The average lender moved just a hair lower. Once again, the...
Thu, Apr 9 2026, 9:08 AM
The overnight session leading into this morning's open was completely sideways--especially compared to yesterday's example. The boatload of econ data ...
Wed, Apr 8 2026, 4:33 PM
Bonds Lose Almost All The Overnight Gains
Bonds rallied sharply overnight--adding onto an already decent ral...
Wed, Apr 8 2026, 3:27 PM
It's a fluid situation in financial markets on Wednesday. The 2-week ceasefire in the Iran war caused a big reaction last night, but the benefit to th...
Wed, Apr 8 2026, 9:06 AM
The wheels were already in motion by the time yesterday's recap came out, and participants in the MBS Live chat room were already high-fiving as we wa...
Tue, Apr 7 2026, 4:39 PM
Wednesday Could Be Entirely Different
April 7th has been one of the most important days on the calendar for ...
Tue, Apr 7 2026, 3:14 PM
In stark contrast to the entire month of March, April's mortgage rate volatility has been downright boring. To put this in context, the average top ti...
Tue, Apr 7 2026, 9:34 AM
Tonight brings 8pm ET deadline for Iran's response to U.S. demands (opening shipping channels among other things). If there's no response, Trump has t...
Mon, Apr 6 2026, 3:33 PM
Holiday-Adjacent Waiting Game
Monday may not have been an official holiday for the U.S. bond market, but it ...
Mon, Apr 6 2026, 3:11 PM
It was an uneventful day for mortgage rates with the average lender close enough to Friday's levels that borrowers would not see much of a difference ...
Mon, Apr 6 2026, 9:36 AM
Much of the international trading community remains on holiday today, making for lower volume and liquidity in the US. Bonds have managed to mostly sh...
Fri, Apr 3 2026, 12:52 PM
Nothing Else Happened After Initial Selling
The typical early close for the bond market is 2pm ET. This is u...
Fri, Apr 3 2026, 9:58 AM
Today's jobs report is/was the only big-ticket calendar event and the most obvious source of bond market inspiration. That's doubly true considering t...
Thu, Apr 2 2026, 3:54 PM
Bonds Recover on Oil Price Hopes
Bonds were weaker to start the day with oil prices moving sharply higher af...
Thu, Apr 2 2026, 3:12 PM
On any given Thursday, there's a decent enough chance that the average mortgage rate headline will be unintentionally misleading. At issue is media re...
Thu, Apr 2 2026, 9:11 AM
Things don't always happen like you'd expect. There was some buzz yesterday in the run up to yesterday night's Trump speech. Even during the domestic ...
Wed, Apr 1 2026, 4:07 PM
Surprisingly Light Volatility
Bonds digested several big ticket economic reports as well as a host of war-re...
Wed, Apr 1 2026, 3:14 PM
Mortgage rates were little-changed on Wednesday, despite the release of several economic reports and another deluge of war-related headlines. In the s...
Wed, Apr 1 2026, 9:38 AM
Bonds rallied modestly in the overnight session after Trump said the US may exit the war soon. Those gains have been more than erased (just barely) af...
Tue, Mar 31 2026, 4:28 PM
Another Day of Gains With Some Quarter-End Distortion
Q1 was fairly eventful for the bond market with solid-...
Tue, Mar 31 2026, 3:21 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower for the second straight day as markets responded to potential de-escalation in the Iran war. Rates are based on bonds and ...
Tue, Mar 31 2026, 10:35 AM
The focal point of the overnight news cycle was a report that administration officials said Trump is willing to end the war even if the Strait of Horm...
Mon, Mar 30 2026, 3:24 PM
The bad news is that the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate remains over 6.5% after being under 6% just a month ago. The good news is that rates recover...
Mon, Mar 30 2026, 9:12 AM
There are three distinct reasons that could account for bonds paradoxically rallying overnight despite oil prices remaining high and an absence of mea...
Fri, Mar 27 2026, 4:16 PM
Some Resilience After AM Weakness
10yr yields are set to end the week at the highest levels since last July,...
Fri, Mar 27 2026, 2:29 PM
There were mixed blessings in the mortgage rate world today. The bad news is that today's rates are just a bit higher than yesterday's, resulting in a...
Fri, Mar 27 2026, 10:12 AM
Markets were presented with an opportunity just before the close yesterday to put their faith in another ceasefire-style announcement, but have instea...
Thu, Mar 26 2026, 4:11 PM
That Escalated Quickly
It would be easy to check in on the bond market at some point on Thursday afternoon a...
Thu, Mar 26 2026, 2:49 PM
After a somewhat hopeful day on Wednesday, mortgage rates are back to their same old tricks on Thursday. The tricks in question involve following the ...
Thu, Mar 26 2026, 9:21 AM
Bonds yields stayed lower than oil prices suggested yesterday afternoon. The same is true this morning, but oil prices have risen enough to lead bonds...
Wed, Mar 25 2026, 4:04 PM
Noticeably Lighter Volatility. Why?
Wednesday offered a welcome break from the pervasive volatility seen sin...
