Thu, Oct 9 2025, 4:05 PM
Uneventful Day; MBS Underperform
It's not uncommon to see MBS outperform their Treasury benchmarks in the ru...
Thu, Oct 9 2025, 3:33 PM
It's getting pretty tough to weave an interesting narrative on mortgage rates over the past 3 weeks. During that time, they just haven't changed that ...
Thu, Oct 9 2025, 9:17 AM
With Jobless Claims on hold due to the shutdown, bonds are forced to endure another data-free morning. The calendar offered a glimmer of hope with a P...
Wed, Oct 8 2025, 3:21 PM
Some Selling Pressure After Auction and Fed Minutes
There were no market-moving economic reports scheduled f...
Wed, Oct 8 2025, 3:00 PM
Mortgage rates technically ticked a hair lower today, but it's more accurate to view them as being broadly sideways. Some lenders issued improvements ...
Wed, Oct 8 2025, 9:33 AM
While there are a smattering of Fed speakers on the calendar today, the morning comments are not likely to have an impact. In fact, the average Fed sp...
Tue, Oct 7 2025, 4:26 PM
Bonds Turn Green After Econ Data and Treasury Auction
Bonds began the day in slightly weaker territory as yi...
Tue, Oct 7 2025, 3:57 PM
Mortgage rates have been in a very narrow range for nearly 3 weeks with the last major move seen on September 17th and 18th following the Fed rate cut...
Tue, Oct 7 2025, 11:38 AM
10yr yields drifted up toward the 4.20% technical level overnight but buyers showed up at the 8:20am CME open. The initial recovery looks more technic...
Mon, Oct 6 2025, 4:39 PM
Incidental Weakness But No Big Picture Change
There were no economic reports on tap today and no obvious mar...
Mon, Oct 6 2025, 4:23 PM
Mortgage rates began the week right in line with their highest levels of the past 30 days. This sounds a bit more dramatic than it is because the pas...
Mon, Oct 6 2025, 8:57 AM
On paper, it was supposed to have been a sleepy session for bonds with nothing of note on the econ calendar. But in practice, we're seeing one of the ...
Fri, Oct 3 2025, 4:59 PM
Weaker Day, Stronger Week
Friday ended up seeing the bond market give up some ground with most of the weakne...
Fri, Oct 3 2025, 3:51 PM
Mortgage rates moved just a bit lower today. Relative to any other day in the past 2 weeks, it was unremarkable. But because the range has been so na...
Fri, Oct 3 2025, 10:12 AM
With NFP on hold due to the shutdown, today's ISM Services was our only chance for for data driven volatility in the 2nd half of the week. A big beat...
Thu, Oct 2 2025, 4:04 PM
Ultra Quiet Session, But Ultimately Stronger
With the day's only relevant econ data on hold due to the shutd...
Thu, Oct 2 2025, 3:16 PM
If we're splitting hairs, today's mortgage rates are half a hair lower than yesterday's, but the average borrower might not see a difference in a rate...
Thu, Oct 2 2025, 9:45 AM
As a reminder, economic data published by government entities is on hold during the shutdown. Today, that means no Jobless Claims (also no Factory Ord...
Wed, Oct 1 2025, 3:53 PM
Best Closing Levels in More Than a Week, But Still Generally Flat
Short version: bonds have been basically f...
Wed, Oct 1 2025, 3:16 PM
Mortgage rates are based on bonds and bonds take cues from economic data. Employment-related data is particularly important. The monthly jobs report f...
Wed, Oct 1 2025, 8:32 AM
Bonds were already a hair stronger coming into the ADP data, but the results (-32k vs 50k forecast and previous month revised to -3k from 54k) have pr...
Tue, Sep 30 2025, 4:12 PM
Gains Erased by Month/Quarter-End Trading
If it's the last day of a month and especially if it's also the la...
Tue, Sep 30 2025, 3:08 PM
Mortgage rates were just barely lower this morning versus yesterday's latest levels, but most borrowers won't see any major difference from any of the...
Tue, Sep 30 2025, 11:25 AM
No new news on the probably government shutdown, but betting markets show increased odds, for whatever that's worth. The only reason to watch or care ...
Mon, Sep 29 2025, 5:08 PM
Waiting on Details as Bonds Reinforce The Range
It was a forgettable trading day, but at least slightly stro...
Mon, Sep 29 2025, 3:55 PM
It was an uneventful day for the bond market (and, thus, interest rates) as investors wait for clarity on this week's potential government shutdown. I...
Mon, Sep 29 2025, 10:00 AM
Under normal circumstance, we look forward to the first Friday of any given month as the day that the jobs report takes a swing at sending the stronge...
Fri, Sep 26 2025, 3:54 PM
Last week was a wild one for mortgage rates with the lowest levels in nearly a year on Monday and an abrupt spike after Wednesday's Fed announcement. ...
Fri, Sep 26 2025, 10:36 AM
PCE may be the most relevant inflation report when it comes to assessing progress toward the Fed's 2% target, but it is not the most relevant report t...
Thu, Sep 25 2025, 3:54 PM
Reasonably Resilient After AM Losses
In another straightforward trading session, bonds responded logically t...
Thu, Sep 25 2025, 2:47 PM
Thursday was the first day of the week with any meaningful economic reports. This is important to mortgage rates because economic data influences the ...
Thu, Sep 25 2025, 10:54 AM
It's been a fairly straightforward morning so far with economic data coming out much stronger than expected. While the reports in question are not in...
Wed, Sep 24 2025, 4:06 PM
Weaker Thanks to 2 Kinds of "Supply"
At its core, the bond market is like any other financial market, and se...
Wed, Sep 24 2025, 3:41 PM
Over time, mortgage rate movement lines up almost perfectly with movement in the underlying bond market, but there can be day to day discrepancies dep...
Wed, Sep 24 2025, 11:33 AM
It would be an overstatement to say that this week's econ calendar has been "active," but yesterday at least had unscripted comments from Fed Chair Po...
Tue, Sep 23 2025, 4:15 PM
Modestly Stronger After No Whammies From Powell
Last week's press conference with Fed Chair Powell could be ...
Tue, Sep 23 2025, 3:19 PM
Mortgage rates are based on bonds and bonds take their most important cues from big ticket economic reports. But such reports have been in short suppl...
Tue, Sep 23 2025, 11:03 AM
Fed Chair Powell speaks today at a chamber of commerce luncheon in Providence. While the venue may not possess the gravitas of last week's press confe...
Mon, Sep 22 2025, 3:12 PM
After hitting the lowest levels in nearly a year (and nearly the lowest levels in 3 years) last Tuesday, rates lurched higher following Wednesday's Fe...
Mon, Sep 22 2025, 3:47 PM
Slow Burn With Little to Blame
Bonds started out sideways and lost a minimal amount of ground very gradually...
Mon, Sep 22 2025, 11:11 AM
Although the present week brings the release of PCE inflation for August, and although PCE is the most relevant inflation data when it comes to assess...
Fri, Sep 19 2025, 3:35 PM
Officially, our daily mortgage rate index is a hair lower today than it was yesterday. Your mileage may vary depending on the lender in question. Reas...
Fri, Sep 19 2025, 3:31 PM
Uneventfully Sideways At Modestly Weaker Levels
Friday ended up being the least interesting day of the week ...
Fri, Sep 19 2025, 11:23 AM
In your defense, perhaps you're not too bothered or concerned about the market/rate movement since Fed day. But if you are, here's some perspective. W...
Thu, Sep 18 2025, 3:40 PM
It's day two of mortgage rates surging higher--now back to the highest levels in 2 weeks (the day before the September 5th jobs report). The juxtaposi...
Thu, Sep 18 2025, 4:36 PM
Will September Deja Vu Continue?
Rates rallied hard into last September 2024's Fed rate cut and then bounced...
Thu, Sep 18 2025, 9:28 AM
This morning's economic reports (jobless claims and Philly Fed) are not notoriously big market movers, but many analysts gave ample credit to Claims f...
Wed, Sep 17 2025, 4:44 PM
Powell Press Conference Trumps The Dots, Sparking Moderate Sell-Off
Of today's Fed events (rate announcement...
Wed, Sep 17 2025, 3:53 PM
Several things happen on Fed Day--especially on the 4 out of 8 examples with updated rate forecasts from Fed members. The official announcement of a ...
Wed, Sep 17 2025, 2:00 PM
Although swings in net exports continue to affect the data, recent Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first...
