Today, 8:51 AM
It's a pretty simple morning for the bond market (and many other markets). While there's no formal ceasefire, both the U.S. and Iran have indicated a ...
Fri, Jul 24 2026, 3:38 PM
How Technical Do You Want to Be?
There are always multiple technical lenses through which to view market mov...
Fri, Jul 24 2026, 3:06 PM
If you're just tuning in, mortgage rates had a rough day yesterday on top of a rough week overall. The result was the highest 30yr fixed rate in over ...
Fri, Jul 24 2026, 9:56 AM
It's a straightforward morning in the bond market. We're not seeing any of the sorts of "unseen hand" trading that accounted for the timing of yesterd...
Thu, Jul 23 2026, 4:55 PM
Bonds Not Keen To Catch Falling Knives
Oil lurched higher again overnight which kept generalized pressure on...
Thu, Jul 23 2026, 1:41 PM
Mortgage moved higher today, and while the jump was no larger than the one seen on Monday, both were 'above average' and both took rates in the wrong ...
Thu, Jul 23 2026, 9:23 AM
Welcome to post-Iran-War 2026. The only real relief for bonds since then was seen in June when there was hope that the war was over or at least windin...
Wed, Jul 22 2026, 4:52 PM
Just Another Reasonably Bad Day For Bonds
Bonds had a bad day for the 3rd time this week. The weakness was r...
Wed, Jul 22 2026, 3:47 PM
We have bad news and slightly less bad news. Starting with the latter, today's mortgage rates are only marginally higher than they were yesterday with...
Wed, Jul 22 2026, 10:18 AM
For those not interested in overcomplicating things, it's fair enough to simply observe the resurgence of hostilities in the Iran war prompting a resu...
Tue, Jul 21 2026, 5:06 PM
Headwinds, Cont'd
"Headwinds, Cont'd" could be apply to the entirety of 2022-2026 or just March-July of 2026...
Tue, Jul 21 2026, 3:29 PM
In late July, 2025, 30yr fixed rates embarked on an excellent adventure, moving down from 6.75% on July 31st to 5.99% by late February, 2026. Since th...
Tue, Jul 21 2026, 9:26 AM
While last week's CPI and PPI reports were unabashedly great news, the bond market spent Friday and yesterday gradually unwinding most of the resultin...
Mon, Jul 20 2026, 3:53 PM
New Week. Same Old Story
While we certainly CAN put short term market movement under a microscope and entert...
Mon, Jul 20 2026, 3:10 PM
Last week ended on a promising note with Friday's rates falling just barely below the previous Friday's levels. This was a relief after the top-tier 3...
Mon, Jul 20 2026, 10:12 AM
You've seen the "good vibes only" t-shirt perhaps? Bond traders left theirs at home this morning. That's unfortunate as there isn't much beyond vibes ...
Fri, Jul 17 2026, 4:35 PM
Roughly Unchanged After Gradual Weakness
Bonds ended the day roughly unchanged despite this morning's strong...
Fri, Jul 17 2026, 2:41 PM
The good news is that mortgage rates ended the day at their lowest levels of the week. That's welcome news after Monday's rates matched the highest se...
Fri, Jul 17 2026, 9:35 AM
In a month where bonds have made a visible reconnection with fuel prices thanks to the Iran war resurgence, there have been several notable departures...
Thu, Jul 16 2026, 4:46 PM
Ultimately Uneventful Despite Modest Weakness
Bonds lost ground modestly today with the ultimate damage bein...
Thu, Jul 16 2026, 3:27 PM
While some news stories suggest that rates are the highest in 11 months today, that's not quite true. The highest rates of the year were seen on July ...
Thu, Jul 16 2026, 11:26 AM
The term "crack spread" is quickly becoming mainstream--especially over the past few weeks. It's more of a concept than a specific metric, but it most...
Wed, Jul 15 2026, 3:43 PM
Wednesday's Gains Had More Staying Power Than Tuesday's
Both Tuesday's CPI and Wednesday's PPI came in much ...
Wed, Jul 15 2026, 2:40 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower again today following another lower-than-expected reading on an inflation report. Yesterday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) ha...
Wed, Jul 15 2026, 9:20 AM
The Producer Price Index (PPI) is not normally a huge market mover, but it has its moments of moderate impact. Today is such a moment as PPI did its b...
Tue, Jul 14 2026, 4:42 PM
Why Were 10yr Yields Only a Few bps Lower Today?
If you missed this morning's commentary, the gist is that i...
Tue, Jul 14 2026, 3:17 PM
Our daily 30yr fixed rate index hit 6.75% yesterday. This matched the high from May 19th and is the highest level since late July 29, 2025. The key co...
Tue, Jul 14 2026, 8:56 AM
The Consumer Price Index came in FAR below expectations with a core reading of 0.0 vs 0.2 forecasts. In unrounded terms, it was -0.17%. Headline CPI w...
Mon, Jul 13 2026, 4:12 PM
Interest rates are based on bonds. Because the bonds underlying the average mortgage are fixed rate, inflation is the enemy. Imagine you're an investo...
Mon, Jul 13 2026, 9:21 AM
Bonds are weaker to start the new week and the catalyst is simple. The U.S. ramped up air strikes in Iran, both in terms of number and distance inland...
Fri, Jul 10 2026, 3:50 PM
Some Bond-Specific Weakness in The Afternoon
Oil and Treasury yields were almost perfectly correlated for al...
Fri, Jul 10 2026, 2:39 PM
Rates are based on bonds and bonds have been taking cues from oil prices this week. Oil was flat overnight, bringing bonds along for the sideways ride...
Fri, Jul 10 2026, 10:05 AM
The entire week has been a study in the rekindled love affair between bond yields and oil prices. The latter is fairly flat versus yesterday's latest ...
Thu, Jul 9 2026, 4:11 PM
Slightly Stronger But There's a Catch
Bonds had a decent day with MBS up more than a quarter point and 10yr ...
Thu, Jul 9 2026, 3:39 PM
Mortgage rates were rapidly approaching 10-month highs as of yesterday afternoon. They managed a friendly bounce today, but it was fairly small with t...
Thu, Jul 9 2026, 9:49 AM
Bonds are starting the day just a hair stronger versus yesterday's close and there are three ways to look at it. At the most basic level, the move is ...
Wed, Jul 8 2026, 3:50 PM
More War-Related Weakness, But With a Supportive Bounce
Bonds officially closed at the highest yields in mor...
Wed, Jul 8 2026, 3:03 PM
Mortgage rates have moved higher at a moderate pace over the past 2 days as tensions between The U.S. and Iran see a resurgence. As far as the underly...
Wed, Jul 8 2026, 9:27 AM
Iran-related headlines have jumped back to the realm of relevance this week and Wednesday morning's overnight session kicked things up another notch. ...
Tue, Jul 7 2026, 3:18 PM
Hormuz Back in The News
Iran has attacked a few cargo ships recently and there are repercussions. The peace ...
Tue, Jul 7 2026, 2:53 PM
It's been a while since oil prices were the focal point of the interest rate conversation, but that recently familiar dynamic is once again playing ou...
Tue, Jul 7 2026, 9:46 AM
From summertime Monday to summertime Tuesday... Yesterday's modest strength is now erased by today's modest weakness. In both cases, the movement is t...
Mon, Jul 6 2026, 4:03 PM
Uneventful Summertime Monday
Volume and--sometimes--volatility can be generally lower in the middle of the s...
Mon, Jul 6 2026, 3:23 PM
Volatility is always a risk surrounding 3 day holiday weekends when it comes to markets and mortgage rates, but this time around, things have been ver...
Mon, Jul 6 2026, 10:19 AM
Bonds weathered the 3-day weekend without issue. We started the day modestly stronger, but have moved back closer to unchanged levels in the first 2 h...
Thu, Jul 2 2026, 2:17 PM
Not Reading Too Much Into Late Day Reversal
Bonds rallied quickly in response to this morning's jobs report ...
Thu, Jul 2 2026, 1:05 PM
Today is a half day for financial markets, which is a typical feature of a federal holiday weekend. Because tomorrow is fully closed, the big jobs rep...
Thu, Jul 2 2026, 9:05 AM
Bonds continued drifting gently higher in the overnight session with 10yr yields just barely edging above 4.50% before today's big jobs report (the on...
Wed, Jul 1 2026, 3:46 PM
Bonds Find Some Solace in Warsh Despite a Bit More Selling
The past 2 days have been rough for the bond mark...
Wed, Jul 1 2026, 3:15 PM
In a real sense, today's rate update is more of an addendum to yesterday's rate update. Yesterday afternoon saw heavy, continued selling in the bond m...
