Thu, Feb 26 2026, 4:16 PM
Knock Knock Knockin' on 10yr Floor
Sometimes, it's a shame that the 7yr Treasury isn't the most popular bond...
Thu, Feb 26 2026, 3:42 PM
Given that we have the somewhat unpopular job of reporting that today's average top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate is 6.00 again, rather than the 5.99 ...
Thu, Feb 26 2026, 10:37 AM
This is the problem with narrow trading ranges. Yesterday, yields were safely inside a narrow range near long-term lows. Today, they're challenging th...
Wed, Feb 25 2026, 4:45 PM
In-Range PM Weakness
Viewed under a microscope, it may have seemed like today was a relatively volatile sess...
Wed, Feb 25 2026, 3:37 PM
It may not be as glamorous as being able to say mortgage rates are "in the 5s," but at 6.00%, today's MND rate index is a mere 0.01% higher than yeste...
Wed, Feb 25 2026, 9:42 AM
Some days, there's a lot to say about what's going on in the bond market. Other days are like today. Analysts have to lean on themes like trading rang...
Tue, Feb 24 2026, 4:15 PM
Calmly Holding in Super Strong Territory
MBS may not be quite as high as they were yesterday, but in the big...
Tue, Feb 24 2026, 3:53 PM
The average top-tier mortgage rates made it back to 5.99% yesterday for the first time since January 9th and only the second time in more than 3 years...
Tue, Feb 24 2026, 9:31 AM
Volume and volatility is lower this morning compared to yesterday, but the same theme of risk aversion looks to be in play, probably. Why "probably?"...
Mon, Feb 23 2026, 3:09 PM
General Risk Aversion Trade Helping Bonds
Bonds began the day in just barely stronger territory but continue...
Mon, Feb 23 2026, 11:53 AM
This coverage is coming out earlier than normal due to a more interesting headline than normal. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate fell back to 5.99...
Mon, Feb 23 2026, 10:51 AM
Bonds are starting the new week in slightly stronger territory, but still well inside the prevailing trading range. There were no standout market move...
Fri, Feb 20 2026, 4:44 PM
Tariff Ruling Tried (And Failed) to Steal The Show
If you were told ahead of time that Friday morning would ...
Fri, Feb 20 2026, 3:18 PM
Bonds dictate mortgage rates and bonds experienced a bit of volatility this morning in response to the Supreme Court ruling on tariffs. The initial im...
Fri, Feb 20 2026, 9:25 AM
At the time of this writing, there are still a few econ reports left on deck, but the big ones are out. GDP missed big (1.4 vs 3.0), but largely for n...
Thu, Feb 19 2026, 4:36 PM
Bonds Punt. Focus Turns to Friday's Econ Data
Bonds spent the past 2 days pushing back toward slightly highe...
Thu, Feb 19 2026, 3:33 PM
For the average lender, top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rates were perfectly unchanged compared to yesterday. This keeps them right in line with the lowe...
Thu, Feb 19 2026, 8:53 AM
Yesterday's end-of-day recap bore the title "Half-Hearted Correction Continues." It turns out that should have been the title for this morning's comme...
Wed, Feb 18 2026, 4:22 PM
Half-Hearted Correction Continues
Don't call it a correction. Yields may have rallied 30bps in just over a ...
Wed, Feb 18 2026, 3:11 PM
Mortgage rates at the average lender moved up by 0.01% today--the smallest increment measured by the MND daily rate index. This means that most borrow...
Wed, Feb 18 2026, 11:06 AM
Any time the 10yr Treasury yield approaches--but fails to break--a number ending in .50 or .00, the analytical community is guaranteed to be discussin...
Tue, Feb 17 2026, 4:27 PM
Calm Start Even if Modestly Weaker
The day before and/or after a 3-day weekend is more volatile than the ave...
Tue, Feb 17 2026, 4:08 PM
It was an uneventful day for mortgage rates with the average lender holding right in line with last Friday's levels. In this case, that's a good thing...
Tue, Feb 17 2026, 11:25 AM
At the start of the domestic session, bonds had actually managed to build on last week's impressive gains, even if only by a few bps. That was a bit o...
Fri, Feb 13 2026, 4:13 PM
Bonds Close Out Epic Week of Resilience With Friendly Data
Friday was a logically friendly day thanks to sli...
Fri, Feb 13 2026, 2:07 PM
When the administration announced that Fannie and Freddie would be buying mortgage-backed securities in early January, rates fell sharply to the lowes...
Fri, Feb 13 2026, 9:55 AM
CPI came in just a hair below forecasts at the headline level and right in line with forecasts at the core level (unrounded .295 vs .300). Shelter com...
Thu, Feb 12 2026, 4:16 PM
Yields Magically and Mysteriously Sink to Lowest Levels in 2 Months.
At the 3pm CME close, 10yr yields were ...
Thu, Feb 12 2026, 2:35 PM
Just one day after an incredibly strong jobs report--something that would normally create problematic upward momentum for rates--the average lender is...
Thu, Feb 12 2026, 9:07 AM
When the jobs report makes a big statement, bonds are more likely to exhibit elevated momentum and volatility in the following days. In more than a fe...
Wed, Feb 11 2026, 4:09 PM
Stunning Resilience
One could argue that our bar is set too low if we view today's bond market resilience as...
Wed, Feb 11 2026, 2:26 PM
Mortgage rates moved 0.03% higher today. On almost any other day, this would be a bit of a bummer, but in today's case, it's a victory. There was a t...
Wed, Feb 11 2026, 9:48 AM
Nearly an hour after this morning's surprisingly strong jobs report, 10yr yields are only 4.4bps higher at 4.19%. On a normal day, 4.4bps might be a f...
Tue, Feb 10 2026, 3:39 PM
Best Levels in Weeks Ahead of High Stakes Jobs Report
Rather than circle the wagons and consolidate the rece...
Tue, Feb 10 2026, 2:20 PM
Mortgage rates fell on Tuesday following a downbeat Retail Sales report. At 0.05%, it was the largest single-day drop since the uncommonly big 0.15% d...
Tue, Feb 10 2026, 9:42 AM
Last Thursday, we discussed the paradox of a rally in the present moment being driven by future data. More specifically, the three downbeat labor mark...
Mon, Feb 9 2026, 4:31 PM
Early Volatility And a Decent Recovery
Bonds lost ground in the overnight session after Chinese regulators c...
Mon, Feb 9 2026, 3:15 PM
The past 2 weeks have seen very little volatility for mortgage rates. After being near 6% for a week in early January, rates rose abruptly to 6.21% (...
Mon, Feb 9 2026, 11:02 AM
Most nights, Treasuries trade in fairly low volume in a fairly narrow range. Last night's range wasn't much wider than normal, but most of the moveme...
Fri, Feb 6 2026, 3:31 PM
Potential Signs of GSE Buying as MBS Outperform
It was an uneventful day when it comes to scheduled data/eve...
Fri, Feb 6 2026, 12:51 PM
In the bigger picture, the past two and a half weeks have been marked by a very narrow range in the bond market. Because bonds dictate mortgage rates,...
Fri, Feb 6 2026, 9:53 AM
Friday is the quietest day of the week in terms of scheduled econ data and events, with the relatively unimportant Consumer Sentiment being the only n...
Thu, Feb 5 2026, 2:59 PM
Surprisingly Big Bond Rally Relative to The Data
Bonds went on a bit of a buying spree on Thursday. It was t...
Thu, Feb 5 2026, 1:52 PM
Mortgage rates are driven by bonds and that bonds care about employment data. There are quite a few different economic reports that focus on various e...
Thu, Feb 5 2026, 9:21 AM
Bonds were incidentally and inconsequentially stronger to start the overnight session, but began to see better gains after 7am ET. There were two nota...
Wed, Feb 4 2026, 3:57 PM
No Whammies in Wednesday's Data. JOLTS Rescheduled for Thursday
With the big jobs report on hold until next ...
Wed, Feb 4 2026, 2:58 PM
The average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate hit its highest levels in 2 weeks yesterday. The caveat was that the range has been very narrow during t...
Wed, Feb 4 2026, 9:01 AM
Today's two key reports are ADP Employment (8:15am ET) and ISM Services (10am ET). The former came out a bit softer than expected, but bonds didn't r...
Tue, Feb 3 2026, 3:48 PM
Mostly Sideways. Volatility Elsewhere
The legend of the bond market's extreme apathy is increasingly making ...
Tue, Feb 3 2026, 3:23 PM
The bad news: mortgage rates moved up to their highest levels in 2 weeks today. The good news: the rate range has been very narrow during that time,...
