Wed, May 27 2026, 4:03 PM
In a Shocking Twist, Bonds Relive Another Groundhog Day
The present week began on a stronger note thanks to ...
Wed, May 27 2026, 3:47 PM
Early in the trading session, the bond market began improving in response to more updates on a potential Iran peace deal. When bonds improve, rates fa...
Wed, May 27 2026, 8:50 AM
It seems that we've seen slight variations on the same peace deal news for the past several days. That's probably because there is an actual peace dea...
Tue, May 26 2026, 3:32 PM
Good Reminder That The Market Gets to Decide What Matters
If oil, Treasuries, stocks, and the rest of the ma...
Tue, May 26 2026, 2:48 PM
Although mortgage rates are still relatively close to their highest levels in 9 months, they continue moving lower after hitting those highs as the be...
Tue, May 26 2026, 9:35 AM
On Sunday evening, the NYT ran a story that the U.S. and Iran had agreed in principle to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The key distinct...
Fri, May 22 2026, 3:05 PM
Bonds Scratch Out a Win Amid Dueling Headlines
Bonds remain surprisingly willing to react to the most seemin...
Fri, May 22 2026, 1:19 PM
Mortgage lenders rely on the bond market to generate mortgage rates. In addition to being fully closed on Monday for Memorial Day, bonds also close 3 ...
Fri, May 22 2026, 8:59 AM
Bonds are starting the session at the best levels of the week with modest overnight gains getting a small boost from news that Pakistan's army chief (...
Thu, May 21 2026, 4:05 PM
Peace Deal Rumors Make For Mid-Day Reversal
Bonds started the day in fairly forgettable and slightly weaker ...
Thu, May 21 2026, 2:40 PM
After posting a decent recovery from 9-month highs yesterday, it looked like mortgage rates were destined to bounce back toward slightly higher levels...
Thu, May 21 2026, 9:19 AM
Bonds spent most of the overnight session moving sideways to slightly stronger, but everything changed at 6:20am. That's when news broke regarding a s...
Wed, May 20 2026, 4:19 PM
Full Reversal And Then Some
Bonds more than made up from Tuesday's rout with a massive rally on Wednesday. U...
Wed, May 20 2026, 2:58 PM
Wednesday brought some much-needed relief for the mortgage market after rates surged to new 9 month highs of 6.75% yesterday. Whereas that rate spike ...
Wed, May 20 2026, 10:24 AM
Tuesday's massive wave of bond-specific weakness still has the analytical community scratching its collective head. Our contacts are either saying not...
Tue, May 19 2026, 4:57 PM
Whales Making Waves in Treasury Futures
Nerd alert: there's no way to discuss what happened in the bond mark...
Tue, May 19 2026, 3:28 PM
It was another rough day for the bond market and, thus, for interest rates. Investors aggressively sold bonds in the first 2 hours of trading, taking ...
Tue, May 19 2026, 9:40 AM
Ever since the initial 2 week ceasefire was announced in the Iran war, the bond market has adhered to trend channels that align with either de-escalat...
Mon, May 18 2026, 4:18 PM
Bombarded by Headlines, But Little-Changed
Monday's trading session ended up being an exercise in headline-w...
Mon, May 18 2026, 3:34 PM
Mortgage rates hit their highest levels in more than 9 months at the end of last week. Now today, they've edged slightly higher yet again with the ave...
Mon, May 18 2026, 10:36 AM
Bonds began the overnight session by drifting somewhat higher in yield. The 10yr hit 4.63 before recovering modestly just before domestic trading bega...
Fri, May 15 2026, 5:12 PM
Bonds Continued Drifting Weaker Throughout The Day
Nothing new or interesting happened during the course of ...
Fri, May 15 2026, 12:40 PM
Mortgage rates are driven by bonds and the bond market hoped to see more evidence of shift toward peace during the 2-day Trump/Xi meeting in China. As...
Fri, May 15 2026, 9:19 AM
Far too many market participants were apparently hoping that some sort of positive news on the war would be somehow facilitated by the Trump/Xi summit...
Thu, May 14 2026, 4:22 PM
Rally Reverses, Leaving Bonds Weaker in The Afternoon
The day began with promise, but devolved into yet anot...
Thu, May 14 2026, 3:20 PM
May continues to be a more volatile month than the bulk of April when it comes to day over day mortgage rate movement. While the average day has seen ...
Thu, May 14 2026, 9:46 AM
A recovery toward lower oil prices paved the way for the bond market to recover yesterday morning's weakness and the same theme continued in the overn...
Wed, May 13 2026, 3:38 PM
MBS Fully Recover After Initial Reaction to Inflation Data
There's no question that this morning's PPI data ...
Wed, May 13 2026, 2:58 PM
Mortgage rates rose somewhat sharply yesterday to match the highest level since March 27th. They're just a hair higher today, thus officially at 6-wee...
Wed, May 13 2026, 10:21 AM
The Producer Price Index (PPI) is much more volatile and, on average, much less of a market mover than the Consumer Price Index (CPI), but occasionall...
Tue, May 12 2026, 4:06 PM
Highest Yields in 10 Months on War Headlines and Auction Concessions
Because CPI came out slightly higher to...
Tue, May 12 2026, 3:28 PM
When the Iran war was in its initial escalation phase, the initial surge in markets took the top-tier 30yr fixed rate to 6.64% for the average lender ...
Tue, May 12 2026, 9:29 AM
This morning's Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in slightly hotter than expected with core inflation running 2.8% annual vs 2.7% forecasts and overall ...
Mon, May 11 2026, 3:50 PM
Over Before it Began
Monday proved to be a boring trading day despite the moderately big sell-off. Yields ac...
Mon, May 11 2026, 3:30 PM
Last week was decidedly stronger for mortgage rates as they either held steady or moved lower on 5 out of 5 days. All told, it was a 0.14% drop from t...
Mon, May 11 2026, 11:28 AM
Bonds are starting the day moderately weaker. The reasons are straightforward. Chief among them, Trump rejected Iran's counterproposal to end the war,...
Fri, May 8 2026, 3:34 PM
Calm and Slightly Stronger, But Volatility Will be Back
Once or twice per week, the bond market manages to p...
Fri, May 8 2026, 1:52 PM
It ended up being a decent round trip for rates this week. Monday kicked things off with a jump to the highest level in more than a month, and the thi...
Fri, May 8 2026, 9:00 AM
Everyone's been talking about the ongoing change in the significance of the payroll number in the jobs report. OK, not everyone, but economists and bo...
Thu, May 7 2026, 3:24 PM
Another Mid-Day Reversal Driven by Dueling Headlines
The overnight session featured a modest but clearly-def...
Thu, May 7 2026, 2:46 PM
The day began on a fairly hopeful note for the mortgage market. During overnight trading hours, the bond market improved following a report regarding ...
Thu, May 7 2026, 9:08 AM
Bonds and oil rallied again in the overnight session, though not as swiftly as they did yesterday. News was thinner, but there was still an obvious ca...
Wed, May 6 2026, 4:15 PM
Pre-Market Gains Stuck Around All Day
The entirety of the domestic trading session was very flat compared to...
Wed, May 6 2026, 3:40 PM
Mortgage rates spiked sharply on Monday, hitting the highest levels in more than a month as escalation fears ramped up surrounding the Iran war. Yeste...
Wed, May 6 2026, 8:49 AM
There was one, big, obvious market mover overnight. At 4:50am ET, Axios reported that the U.S. and Iran are close to signing a one page memo of unders...
Tue, May 5 2026, 3:20 PM
Data Didn't Hurt, But Bonds Underperformed The Oil Price Recovery
Today's headline is somewhat misleading. I...
Tue, May 5 2026, 2:43 PM
One popular refrain in the mortgage industry is that rates take the escalator on the way up and the stairs on the way down. Yesterday was definitely a...
Tue, May 5 2026, 9:37 AM
After hitting the highest yields in more than a month yesterday, bonds have managed to pick up a few bps. The bulk of the recovery was already in plac...
Mon, May 4 2026, 4:08 PM
Markets Hit by Glut of Escalation Headlines
Monday's trading session ended up being as simple as it was unpl...
Mon, May 4 2026, 3:19 PM
Top-tier 30-year fixed rates are back above 6.5% today for the first time in more than a month for the average lender. Many lenders raised rates durin...
