Today, 3:37 PM
It was a fairly boring day on what has turned out to be a fairly boring week so far for mortgage rates. After Friday's larger spike, we've seen a mic...
Today, 10:46 AM
Although bonds are experiencing a small amount of volatility this morning, it isn't consequential in the bigger picture. Quick-but-modest weakness at...
Mon, Jun 9 2025, 3:56 PM
Gentle Rally Gently Reverses After Trade Headlines
First thing's first: bonds closed in stronger territory a...
Mon, Jun 9 2025, 3:38 PM
As hoped, Friday's big rate spike did not carry additional momentum into the new week. This is occasionally a risk when rates are responding to big s...
Mon, Jun 9 2025, 10:12 AM
Overnight and early-session trading confirm the bond market is shifting gears and re-entering a sort of cruise control in the prevailing range. Had la...
Fri, Jun 6 2025, 5:02 PM
Perfectly Logical Reaction to On-Target Data
It's not necessarily a fun fact to face, but today's bond marke...
Fri, Jun 6 2025, 3:13 PM
Mortgage rates have enjoyed a nice run since May 21st, with the MND Index (average top tier 30yr fixed scenarios) falling from a recent peak of 7.08% ...
Fri, Jun 6 2025, 11:30 AM
The bond market was likely taking a bit of a lead-off ahead of today's jobs report, inspired by a string of weaker economic data over the past week. ...
Thu, Jun 5 2025, 4:05 PM
Bonds Dial Back Ahead of Big Jobs Report
It was a fairly interesting day for bonds, relative to the calendar...
Thu, Jun 5 2025, 3:37 PM
Mortgage rates began the day perfectly in line with yesterday's latest levels for the average lender. By the afternoon, the underlying bond market had...
Thu, Jun 5 2025, 10:04 AM
Bonds began the morning in rally mode, even if not in an extreme way. Gains lasted for about 20 minutes before reversing. The shift was accompanied ...
Wed, Jun 4 2025, 5:28 PM
Big Bond Rally After ADP and ISM
We knew the onus was on weaker economic data to justify any decent drop in ...
Wed, Jun 4 2025, 4:32 PM
Whether or not today's drop in rates is meaningful depends on one's perspective, but in the context of recent rate movement, it's definitely noticeabl...
Wed, Jun 4 2025, 10:28 AM
It's been a fairly simple morning so far for the bond market. Both of the morning's key economic reports came in weaker than expected. In the case of ...
Tue, Jun 3 2025, 4:47 PM
JOLTS Data Didn't Help, But it Didn't Hurt Much Either
Bonds were moderately stronger overnight and then wea...
Tue, Jun 3 2025, 4:02 PM
Sometimes a Tuesday is just a Tuesday for mortgage rates. In the present week, any day is capable of generating some volatility due to one of several...
Tue, Jun 3 2025, 10:35 AM
First thing's first: the overnight rally was fairly modest with 10yr yields dropping about 3bps to 4.41 ahead of the domestic session. Given that the...
Mon, Jun 2 2025, 5:27 PM
New Month Selling Trumps ISM Data
It's not that this morning's ISM data failed to help the bond market. In f...
Mon, Jun 2 2025, 4:02 PM
Mortgage rates have been in an exceptionally narrow range since last Tuesday with the 30yr fixed index hovering just under 7%. The average lender is ...
Mon, Jun 2 2025, 10:51 AM
The ISM Manufacturing PMI has more potential than most economic reports to cause a reaction in the bond market, even if it isn't perfectly consistent....
Fri, May 30 2025, 4:19 PM
Strongest Close of the Week After Well-Contained Month-End Volatility
There was always a reasonably high bar...
Fri, May 30 2025, 3:28 PM
It has turned out to be a surprisingly calm week for mortgage rates and, as of today, largely a victorious one, even if the victories have been modest...
Fri, May 30 2025, 9:14 AM
Today's PCE Price Index is one of the two main consumer inflation reports put out by the US government. It's bigger and broader than CPI, but CPI com...
Thu, May 29 2025, 4:46 PM
Bonds Hold Morning Gains; No Reaction to Tariff Headlines
To be clear, markets reacted to tariff headlines y...
Thu, May 29 2025, 3:49 PM
There was a bit of behind-the-scenes volatility in the bond market today. Normally, bond volatility translates to interest rate volatility. In some c...
Thu, May 29 2025, 10:56 AM
We have a primer in the MBS Live knowledge base regarding the potential for overnight news and bond trading to give a completely different impression ...
Wed, May 28 2025, 4:51 PM
Minimal Movement Amid Absence of Data
It was ultimately a fairly uneventful session for bonds with the 5yr T...
Wed, May 28 2025, 4:13 PM
After moving moderately lower to start the new week yesterday, mortgage rates backtracked ever-so-slightly today. Top tier conventional 30yr fixed ra...
Wed, May 28 2025, 12:14 PM
After starting the holiday-shortened week on a positive note yesterday, bonds are already circling the wagons and encountering some resistance. This d...
Tue, May 27 2025, 5:20 PM
Bonds Finally Seeing Some Support
Whether one wants to give credit to the big rally in Japanese bonds, the w...
Tue, May 27 2025, 4:48 PM
The 30yr fixed mortgage rate index spent 3 consecutive days over 7% last week--the first time that's happened since February. Rates have generally be...
Tue, May 27 2025, 11:33 AM
Last week's overseas headlines raised questions about about a spillover from volatility in the Japanese bond market to US yields. At issue: attention-...
Fri, May 23 2025, 3:34 PM
A Little Early Excitement
Bonds began the day with a bit of excitement following Trump comments on raising E...
Fri, May 23 2025, 12:38 PM
The bond market is scheduled to close 3 hour earlier than normal today--a common practice surrounding federal holiday weekends. This means 3 fewer hou...
Fri, May 23 2025, 10:37 AM
The most notable development on what might otherwise have been a sleepy half-day ahead of a holiday weekend was Trump's "recommendation" of a 50% tari...
Thu, May 22 2025, 4:38 PM
Slightly Stronger Because Not Every Day Can be Weaker
Bond yields have moved almost exclusively higher in Ma...
Thu, May 22 2025, 3:20 PM
Mortgage rates hit their highest level in just over 3 months yesterday with financial markets generally protesting the absence of more serious spendin...
Thu, May 22 2025, 10:06 AM
The most significant development of the overnight session was the early morning passage of the spending bill in the House. This resulted in only a mod...
Wed, May 21 2025, 4:34 PM
Treasury Auction Blamed as Bond Vigilantes' Smoking Gun
Vigilante justice! Taking matters into one's own ha...
Wed, May 21 2025, 3:43 PM
Two days ago, mortgage rates began the day at 7.04% before mid-day improvements brought the average back down to 6.99%. Today started out in a simila...
Wed, May 21 2025, 10:50 AM
We're now into the 3rd day of a week that's conspicuously lacking in relevant econ data. In addition, the looming holiday weekend hinders participatio...
Tue, May 20 2025, 5:01 PM
Ultimately Sort of Flat if You Use Your Imagination
Here's a quick and easy method for imagining that bonds ...
Tue, May 20 2025, 4:32 PM
Mortgage rates ultimately managed to hold steady on Tuesday despite some underlying market volatility. Rates change day to day (and sometimes intraday...
Tue, May 20 2025, 10:11 AM
It's a holiday-shortened week with a relatively empty economic calendar, thus forcing the bond market to find its movement cues elsewhere. To some sma...
Mon, May 19 2025, 3:51 PM
(Un)Surprising Reversal After Initial Weakness
The sharp overnight losses in stocks and bonds were consisten...
Mon, May 19 2025, 3:05 PM
Mortgage rates jumped sharply over the weekend as financial markets reacted to Moody's credit rating downgrade of the U.S. News of the downgrade brok...
Mon, May 19 2025, 9:10 AM
When Moody's announced the surprise cut of the US credit rating on Friday, there were only a few minutes left to trade and all but the latest working ...
Fri, May 16 2025, 5:26 PM
Moody's Pulls Pin And Walks Away With 10 Minutes Left to Trade
Bonds began the day stronger after a gentle o...
Fri, May 16 2025, 4:25 PM
The average top tier 30yr fixed rate is set to end the week just a few hundredths of a percent higher than last Friday at 6.92%. That's a victory--al...
Fri, May 16 2025, 10:34 AM
One might assume that an economic report like Import Prices would carry a lot of weight in light of the news cycle or that the highest 1yr inflation e...
