Wed, Nov 26 2025, 2:52 PM
Wednesday was far less eventful than the first two days of the week as far as mortgage rates were concerned. The average lender raised rates just a ha...
Wed, Nov 26 2025, 8:55 AM
Bonds were just slightly weaker overnight but are losing more ground in early trading. The culprit: both of this morning's 8:30am ET economic release...
Tue, Nov 25 2025, 5:08 PM
Best Closing Levels in Nearly a Month
Bonds improved only moderately on Tuesday in a move that's just as eas...
Tue, Nov 25 2025, 4:04 PM
Mortgage rates moved nicely lower on Tuesday with the average lender very close to the 2025 lows seen in late October. These levels are effectively ri...
Tue, Nov 25 2025, 8:53 AM
ADP's weekly employment report showed another contraction at -13.5k, but unlike last week, no one seems to care. We also got the delayed release of Re...
Mon, Nov 24 2025, 4:39 PM
Lowest Yields in Almost 4 Weeks Despite Ongoing Stock Market Recovery
There's no question that stock prices ...
Mon, Nov 24 2025, 4:15 PM
Thanksgiving weeks can be weird for mortgage rates. This has to do with the fact that rates are dictated by the bond market and the bond market depend...
Mon, Nov 24 2025, 10:04 AM
It's a data-free Monday on a holiday-shortened week and there aren't any high-impact headlines or massive stock swings to spark any serious bond marke...
Fri, Nov 21 2025, 3:04 PM
Bonds Hold Gains Despite Ongoing Recovery in Stocks
The stock market factored into the bond market's perform...
Fri, Nov 21 2025, 1:53 PM
Recent stock market losses have gotten a lot attention in the news recently. While there's no reliable correlation between stocks and interest rates, ...
Fri, Nov 21 2025, 9:31 AM
It was a pretty straightforward overnight session with a very high degree of correlation between bond yields and stock prices. The final leg of the ra...
Thu, Nov 20 2025, 4:21 PM
Decent Gains Remain Intact; Stock Market Contribution is a Wild Card
The rescheduled release of the Septembe...
Thu, Nov 20 2025, 3:48 PM
Yesterday, we discussed the fact that mortgage rates were heading into Thursday with a disadvantage (for most lenders, anyway). This had to do with th...
Thu, Nov 20 2025, 9:19 AM
It's shaping up to be a "no whammies" sort of morning for the bond market. There's no denying that the jobs report was a highly tradeable event. The ...
Wed, Nov 19 2025, 4:23 PM
Fed Minutes Push Yields Higher
As expected, the recent raft of hawkish Fed speakers foreshadowed (whether in...
Wed, Nov 19 2025, 3:19 PM
It was a complicated day for mortgage rates. Officially, at the time of this article, the average top tier 30yr fixed rate is a hair lower than it wa...
Wed, Nov 19 2025, 10:11 AM
Correlation between stocks and bonds is hit and miss depending on other factors. Before the age of more aggressive Fed intervention, it was more commo...
Tue, Nov 18 2025, 4:46 PM
Modest Gains After Mid-Day Volatility
With only a few exceptions, bonds have been a rudderless ship during t...
Tue, Nov 18 2025, 4:11 PM
With economic data being the most consistent source of motivation for rates, the market has been eager for it to return with the reopening of the gove...
Tue, Nov 18 2025, 10:22 AM
We've seen a clumsy, confused return of various economic reports this morning (several reports were no previously announced with rescheduled release d...
Mon, Nov 17 2025, 4:07 PM
Uneventful Monday; MBS Underperform
In the bigger picture, bonds were flat on Monday without any major volat...
Mon, Nov 17 2025, 3:33 PM
The bond market (which dictates rates) was roughly unchanged over the weekend. As such, it's no surprise to see mortgage rates right in line with Frid...
Mon, Nov 17 2025, 9:30 AM
The jobs report (for September) will be released on Thursday. It is the first major econ data to re-appear after the shutdown. Notably, that's because...
Fri, Nov 14 2025, 4:58 PM
Gains Completely Erased; Stocks Looking More Culpable
Viewed in a vacuum, this mornings 7-8am rally remains ...
Fri, Nov 14 2025, 4:10 PM
Mortgage rates were only modestly higher on Friday, but because of the narrow prevailing range and previous increases this week, that brings us right ...
Fri, Nov 14 2025, 9:24 AM
Bonds were sideways to slightly weaker in the overnight session. 4am to 7am was exceptionally flat and narrow. This is notable because stocks had don...
Thu, Nov 13 2025, 4:02 PM
Moderately Weaker With Only The Reopening to Blame
The government reopened on Thursday. Both stocks and bon...
Thu, Nov 13 2025, 3:25 PM
Mortgage rates rose somewhat sharply following the late October Fed meeting but have been in a relatively narrow range so far in November. The range ...
Thu, Nov 13 2025, 8:06 AM
First off, the market expected a shutdown resolution by mid November and especially since this past weekend. That's the reason today's news means ess...
Wed, Nov 12 2025, 4:10 PM
Bonds Look Past 10yr Auction to Maintain Focus on Jobs
While there were no big ticket economic reports on to...
Wed, Nov 12 2025, 3:15 PM
Mortgage rates are based on bond market movement and bonds are much stronger today compared to Monday. Although bonds were closed yesterday for the Ve...
Wed, Nov 12 2025, 10:21 AM
ADP has been in the monthly data game for a long time when it comes to payroll counts, but their weekly report is the new kid on the econ data block. ...
Mon, Nov 10 2025, 4:27 PM
Counting Down to Ending The Shutdown After Tuesday's Holiday Closure
Bonds were weaker in the overnight sess...
Mon, Nov 10 2025, 3:39 PM
Mortgage rates went into the weekend with a small cushion thanks to movement in the bond market on Friday. Specifically, bonds improved after mortgage...
Mon, Nov 10 2025, 11:18 AM
If members of the House can make it back to D.C. in sufficient numbers, there's a real possibility that the shutdown will end this week. Some marketpl...
Fri, Nov 7 2025, 2:24 PM
Wednesday's mortgage rates were the highest in roughly a month and very close to the highest levels in 2 months. This followed stronger economic data...
Fri, Nov 7 2025, 10:51 AM
Although bonds began the day in roughly unchanged territory, they began losing ground shortly thereafter. Things changed at the 9:30am NYSE open as st...
Thu, Nov 6 2025, 5:14 PM
Have Bonds Found Their Post-Fed Footing?
Looked at one way, bonds have been in a moderate selling trend sinc...
Thu, Nov 6 2025, 4:29 PM
As of yesterday afternoon, mortgage rates were right in line with the highest levels in more than a month. The upward momentum was largely a product o...
Thu, Nov 6 2025, 10:49 AM
The shutdown has not only placed more emphasis on the alternative data that was already in the rotation, but also fueled interest in new sources. One ...
Wed, Nov 5 2025, 4:08 PM
A common recent refrain is that the bond market (which dictates interest rates) is having to make do without many of the most important regularly-sche...
Wed, Nov 5 2025, 10:28 AM
Today is a rare day when it comes to economic data. The first Wednesday of any given month is often an important one for economic data because ISM Se...
Tue, Nov 4 2025, 4:49 PM
Wednesday More Likely to Take Cues From Econ Data
Bonds benefited from heavy stock selling late in the overn...
Tue, Nov 4 2025, 4:33 PM
The average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate was technically 0.01% higher than yesterday, but that's the smallest possible detected move. It's just ...
Tue, Nov 4 2025, 9:53 AM
It doesn't always work like this, but today's overnight session saw the classic "conventional wisdom" trade with stocks prices and bond yields falling...
Mon, Nov 3 2025, 4:00 PM
Light Volatility After Initial Losses
The first day of the new month began with some potential excitement, a...
Mon, Nov 3 2025, 3:32 PM
Up until last week's Fed announcement, the average 30yr fixed mortgage rate was at the lowest levels in more than a year (in many cases, matching the ...
Mon, Nov 3 2025, 11:03 AM
Bonds were moderately weaker in the overnight session with most of the selling arriving at 7:56am ET when Alphabet filed for a large corporate bond of...
Fri, Oct 31 2025, 3:53 PM
Sideways Overall Despite Hawkish Fed Speakers
Although there was some mid-day volatility (early buying follo...
Fri, Oct 31 2025, 3:43 PM
After hitting the highest level in several weeks on Thursday, mortgage rates managed to move moderately lower on Friday. Counterpoint: Friday's rates ...
