Thu, Jun 13 2024, 3:46 PM
Helpful Data, MBS Underperformance, Is This Time Different?
The bond market reacted favorably to this mornin...
Thu, Jun 13 2024, 3:35 PM
You'd have to go back to March 28th to see the average mortgage lender offering a lower rate on a top tier, conventional 30yr fixed scenario than they...
Thu, Jun 13 2024, 10:48 AM
In a nutshell, this morning's economic data rapidly reversed the weakness seen after yesterday's Fed announcement, thus restoring the lowest yields ac...
Wed, Jun 12 2024, 4:22 PM
Massive CPI Rally Cut in Half After Fed Announcement
As discussed in the AM commentary, bonds rallied sharpl...
Wed, Jun 12 2024, 4:10 PM
It was an incredibly high consequence day for the bond market and, thus, mortgage rates due to the confluence of two extremely important events. The ...
Wed, Jun 12 2024, 2:01 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate ha...
Wed, Jun 12 2024, 10:32 AM
There are so many line items in the CPI data that it would be hard to imagine a truly perfect report. In today's case, one could still take exception...
Tue, Jun 11 2024, 3:53 PM
Treasury Auction Helps Bonds Hold The Range
If yesterday was a placeholder ahead of bigger ticket events, an...
Tue, Jun 11 2024, 3:30 PM
Today's mortgage rates were fairly close to yesterday's at the average lender for the 3rd business day in a row. Friday was the last day with any sub...
Tue, Jun 11 2024, 10:20 AM
Not every day is destined to be significant (or even interesting) for the bond market. Depending on the outcome of today's only relevant calendar eve...
Mon, Jun 10 2024, 3:24 PM
Straightforward Session as Traders Wait For More
Monday ended up being rather uneventful for the bond despit...
Mon, Jun 10 2024, 3:02 PM
There's been a noticeable uptick in mortgage rate volatility over the past two weeks with a quick spike at the end of May, a nice drop in early June a...
Mon, Jun 10 2024, 10:55 AM
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has done more than any other report to shape trends in the bond market in the past year. At times (such as the middle ...
Fri, Jun 7 2024, 4:06 PM
What Jobs Report? Bring on CPI and the Fed
Bonds made it almost all week putting on a superhuman display of...
Fri, Jun 7 2024, 3:32 PM
There's a strong case to be made for the fact that interest rates had a sunny predisposition this week. In practical terms, that simply meant giving ...
Fri, Jun 7 2024, 12:23 PM
Whether it was a magical combination of Treasury auction timing and new month trading or a legitimate shift in response to Monday's ISM Manufacturing ...
Thu, Jun 6 2024, 4:12 PM
Bonds Continue Taking Their Seats Ahead of The Big Show
Although bonds continued to improve yesterday, the p...
Thu, Jun 6 2024, 4:00 PM
The outcome of certain economic reports will determine whether the next big move in interest rates is higher or lower. Two reports are more important...
Thu, Jun 6 2024, 10:00 AM
We've been anticipating this week of data for the past 3 weeks and it has been delivering on the promise of increased motivation for the bond market. ...
Wed, Jun 5 2024, 4:08 PM
Counterintuitive Reaction to Data, But We're Not Upset
The bond market did not stick to its usual script tod...
Wed, Jun 5 2024, 3:46 PM
The phrase "data dependent" is ingrained in the current bond market psychology for good reason. Weaker trends in economic data will reliably cause th...
Wed, Jun 5 2024, 10:52 AM
ISM produces two PMIs. Both of them have a strong track record of inspiring market movement with today's service sector version being the bigger deal...
Tue, Jun 4 2024, 4:18 PM
For most lenders, you'd still see modestly lower rates on several days in mid May, but apart from that, you'd need to go all the way back to early Apr...
Tue, Jun 4 2024, 4:16 PM
More Gains After JOLTS, But They Might Have Happened Anyway
The winning streak continues for the bond market...
Tue, Jun 4 2024, 9:56 AM
Once again, the bond market is starting the domestic session with 10yr yields several bps lower day-over-day. We can credit European bonds for that o...
Mon, Jun 3 2024, 3:23 PM
Mortgage rates had a rough go of it in the 4 days following Memorial Day weekend (i.e. last week). To be fair, the tough part was limited to the first...
Mon, Jun 3 2024, 3:22 PM
Solid Gains Despite MBS Underperformance
US Treasuries had a tough time digesting auction supply last week, ...
Mon, Jun 3 2024, 10:23 AM
As far as economic data goes, there's CPI, NFP, and then there's everything else. In the "everything else" category, a small group of 3-6 report vie ...
Fri, May 31 2024, 4:23 PM
Data Driven Rally, But Next Week's Data is More Important
By the end of this holiday-shortened week, bonds d...
Fri, May 31 2024, 4:08 PM
This week got off to a late start as markets were closed on Monday for Memorial Day. Upon returning to the office, traders began pushing rates higher ...
Fri, May 31 2024, 11:13 AM
This week's most hotly anticipated report--monthly core PCE inflation--came in 0.2% versus a median forecast of 0.3% this morning. That's welcome new...
Thu, May 30 2024, 4:21 PM
Stale PCE Helped; Fresher Version Up Next
The quarterly vs monthly PCE reports are potential sources of conf...
Thu, May 30 2024, 3:44 PM
If we overlook the nearly unchanged performance from last Friday, mortgage rates were on a 5 day losing streak as of yesterday afternoon with the 30yr...
Thu, May 30 2024, 11:57 AM
Wednesday proved to be frustrating for bond market watchers and fans of low rates. Yields rose to the highest levels in several weeks without any sat...
Wed, May 29 2024, 4:02 PM
Concocting a Narrative to Fit The Market Movement
There are certain days and even weeks where the bond marke...
Wed, May 29 2024, 3:33 PM
Mortgage rates most recently bottomed out on May 15th with the average top tier conventional 30yr fixed scenario being quoted just a hair under 7.0%. ...
Wed, May 29 2024, 11:36 AM
While US bonds were busy holding inside a narrow sideways range through the end of last week, pressure was building in the European bond market. When...
Tue, May 28 2024, 3:49 PM
Relatively Sharp Losses, but Nothing Special in The Bigger Picture
Bonds began the day modestly stronger, an...
Tue, May 28 2024, 3:40 PM
It was a mini rollercoaster of a day for mortgage rates with the average lender starting the day at lower levels than Friday only to end at the highes...
Tue, May 28 2024, 11:54 AM
Last week was notable for its absence of any notable developments--an outcome we considered to be the "guilty until proven innocent" baseline and the ...
Fri, May 24 2024, 2:57 PM
The 11-Day Weekend is Now Official
If there was one objective hurdle to clear in order to consider the prese...
Fri, May 24 2024, 2:43 PM
It was largely a dull week for financial markets in terms of scheduled data and volatility, but numerous Fed speeches helped reiterate what the market...
Fri, May 24 2024, 8:57 AM
If there were any remaining doubts regarding the relevance of Durable Goods as a big ticket market mover, they are put to rest by the absence of a dis...
Thu, May 23 2024, 4:17 PM
Surprisingly Strong Surge in Services PMI Tests The Range
Perhaps fate was tempted by our persistent focus o...
Thu, May 23 2024, 3:45 PM
For the most part, the current week is sorely lacking in the sort of scheduled economic data and events that typically contribute to exciting movement...
Thu, May 23 2024, 9:02 AM
It's day 6 of the increasingly famous 11-day weekend (1 normal weekend plus the 3 day Memorial Day weekend and the 5 days in between without any big t...
Wed, May 22 2024, 4:58 PM
No Major Reaction to Fed Minutes
Today's only event that has any precedent of inspiring rate volatility was ...
Wed, May 22 2024, 4:28 PM
It was another slow day for the mortgage market and one that joins a list of several other relatively inconsequential days in the past few weeks. Thi...
Wed, May 22 2024, 10:37 AM
It's unclear if the industry can recover from what is surely one of the most troubling rate spikes in modern economic history. Invoking one of the mos...
Tue, May 21 2024, 3:52 PM
No Fireworks Expected From Fed Minutes
Day 4 of the 11 day weekend is in the books and the bond market did e...
