Thu, Aug 29 2024, 10:25 AM
There was a solid decade between 2010 and 2020 where weekly Jobless Claims data was completely inconsequential. The labor market had taken the hit fr...
Wed, Aug 28 2024, 4:09 PM
Without Major Data, Bonds Remain Quiet
While it makes riveting analysis a challenge, it's not necessarily a ...
Wed, Aug 28 2024, 3:56 PM
On Wednesday, the average mortgage lender was quoting top tier, conventional 30yr fixed rates at the 2nd lowest level in more than a year. That's cou...
Wed, Aug 28 2024, 11:22 AM
It would have been hard for the present week to be any more of a boring, sideways grind than the previous week, but so far, so boring! Why do we say ...
Tue, Aug 27 2024, 5:12 PM
MBS Continue to Outperform, Sorta
Despite a nice little rally from weaker opening levels to stronger closing...
Tue, Aug 27 2024, 4:59 PM
It was another generally uneventful day for the bond markets and, consequently, for the mortgage rates that take cues from bond market movement. Whil...
Tue, Aug 27 2024, 10:13 AM
Bonds are under a bit of pressure this morning with a modest extension of weakness that began in European trading hours. While this morning's selling...
Mon, Aug 26 2024, 5:00 PM
Uneventful Monday Despite AM Volatility
Durable goods data made for a semblance of volatility this morning, ...
Mon, Aug 26 2024, 4:07 PM
Mortgage rate movement is tied to activity in the bond market and like many things in the world of finance, the bond market depends on participation f...
Mon, Aug 26 2024, 9:10 AM
The Durable Goods report is a somewhat inconsistent report in terms of its ability to influence the bond market. There are definitely examples of big...
Fri, Aug 23 2024, 4:25 PM
Closing Near Week's Best Levels
If Friday was going to offer any example of scheduled events causing movemen...
Fri, Aug 23 2024, 3:47 PM
Every year, the Federal Reserve (aka "the Fed") gathers in Jackson Hole, WY with a bevy of other central bankers and academics to discuss and comment ...
Fri, Aug 23 2024, 10:19 AM
It's been a slow, uneventful week so far in terms of scheduled events. Even though we certainly saw some elevated volume and volatility over the past...
Thu, Aug 22 2024, 5:08 PM
It May Have Seemed Like a Bad Day, But...
Ever since topping out last Thursday morning, bonds have been stea...
Thu, Aug 22 2024, 4:29 PM
After moving lower for 4 straight days to hit the 3rd lowest levels in more than a year, mortgage rates bounced just a bit higher today. This was the...
Thu, Aug 22 2024, 10:20 AM
There is an ongoing bias toward better buying and lower yields in the bond market in spite of a string of decent economic reports in the past week. J...
Wed, Aug 21 2024, 4:19 PM
Bonds Snooze Through Fed Minutes
At first glance, and based on conventional wisdom, today's most relevant ca...
Wed, Aug 21 2024, 4:04 PM
Although the day to day changes in mortgage rates have been modest recently, the slow and steady improvement has brought the average top tier 30yr fix...
Wed, Aug 21 2024, 12:18 PM
Today brought the release of the first benchmark revision to the payroll data through March 2024. It caused widespread confusion both before and afte...
Tue, Aug 20 2024, 4:17 PM
What's Up With 'Secret' Jobs Revisions?
When it was limited to social media, it was one thing, but alarming headlines regarding seemingly under-...
Tue, Aug 20 2024, 4:11 PM
File today under "nice." While it wasn't amazing, significant, or even the byproduct of any interesting events, mortgage rates managed to drift modes...
Tue, Aug 20 2024, 10:09 AM
While there will certainly be some excitement at some point in the future (possibly even the near future), and while we are already well acquainted wi...
Mon, Aug 19 2024, 3:52 PM
Uneventful Summertime Monday
Monday started slow and stayed slow throughout. MBS held well within the narro...
Mon, Aug 19 2024, 3:42 PM
After the intense volatility seen earlier in August, the average change for mortgage rates on any given day has been shrinking. Last week was a mere s...
Mon, Aug 19 2024, 11:07 AM
In past examples of imminent shifts in Fed policy, the late August Jackson Hole symposium has been a relevant--and sometimes substantial--market mover...
Fri, Aug 16 2024, 5:54 PM
Calmer Week, But Are Storms Brewing?
By the time this week's CPI data came in as expected, it was highly unl...
Fri, Aug 16 2024, 5:17 PM
Mortgage rates had a much calmer week this week compared to the previous 2. The average top tier 30yr fixed rate held a fairly narrow range between 6...
Fri, Aug 16 2024, 12:21 PM
At first glance, the first half of the trading day has been volatile for the bond market, but at second glance, trading levels are just returning in l...
Thu, Aug 15 2024, 4:29 PM
Jobless Claims May Have Hit Bonds Harder Than Retail Sales
Hot take, and one that's subject to debate, depen...
Thu, Aug 15 2024, 3:53 PM
Mortgage rates had moved a bit lower since their most recent high last Thursday. By yesterday afternoon, the average lender had moved down to 6.49 fr...
Thu, Aug 15 2024, 10:15 AM
It's a surprisingly straightforward morning for the bond market. The two most important economic reports did exactly the opposite of what bond bulls ...
Wed, Aug 14 2024, 5:06 PM
Uncommonly Flat CPI Reaction
Over the past year, the average CPI day can be picked out on a chart of daily b...
Wed, Aug 14 2024, 4:35 PM
Today brought the release of important economic data with the power to cause a sharp increase or decrease in mortgage rates. There are a wide variety...
Wed, Aug 14 2024, 11:51 AM
These things happen... While it's true that CPI is one of the two hardest-hitting economic reports (the other being the jobs report), it's also true ...
Tue, Aug 13 2024, 4:40 PM
PPI Drives Decent Rally; But CPI Packs a Bigger Punch
This morning's core m/m Producer Price Index hit 0.0% ...
Tue, Aug 13 2024, 4:27 PM
If you're just here to keep an eye on daily changes in mortgage rates, today was solid. There was a modest improvement versus yesterday and the avera...
Tue, Aug 13 2024, 8:41 AM
Although last month's CPI data was well-received by the bond market for coming in below expectations and showing a notable drop in the shelter compone...
Mon, Aug 12 2024, 4:48 PM
Uneventful Monday With Modest Gains
From a volume standpoint, both Friday and today were very light. This i...
Mon, Aug 12 2024, 4:35 PM
Today was completely different than the previous Monday in that it was a normal, boring day with essentially no change in mortgage rates over the week...
Mon, Aug 12 2024, 11:43 AM
Summertime Fridays and Mondays are prone to low volumes--especially when they are virtually data-free, as is the case to begin the new week. The pere...
Fri, Aug 9 2024, 5:25 PM
Straightforward, Uneventful Session Caps The Correction
Bonds have been in correction mode for almost the en...
Fri, Aug 9 2024, 4:44 PM
After starting out at the lowest levels in more than a year on Monday morning, mortgage rates had done nothing but increase through Thursday afternoon...
Fri, Aug 9 2024, 11:00 AM
Now that it's essentially over, it's easy to label this week as a quintessential consolidation and/or modest correction. In fact, even before it bega...
Thu, Aug 8 2024, 3:06 PM
Why Jobless Claims Data Moved Markets More Than Normal
Weekly jobless claims data is far from irrelevant, bu...
Thu, Aug 8 2024, 2:50 PM
It's Thursday and thus time once again for a side-by-side glimpse at our actual daily average 30yr fixed mortgage rate and the weekly survey-based rat...
Thu, Aug 8 2024, 10:58 AM
"Crushed" is likely too harsh a term for what we're seeing this morning, but were it not for Monday morning's paradigm stretching reversal, this morni...
Wed, Aug 7 2024, 5:33 PM
Bonds Selling Off Like it Was Always The Plan
Very little transpired during Wednesday's trading session to c...
Wed, Aug 7 2024, 5:18 PM
Yesterday saw one of the largest single day mortgage rate increases in years, although there were more than a few caveats. We discussed those in grea...
Wed, Aug 7 2024, 10:33 AM
Coming into this week, the most logical base case was for a moderate correction in the bond market owing to the strong rally last week and the absence...
Tue, Aug 6 2024, 4:39 PM
MBS Outperform as Bonds Aggressively Unwind Weekend Rally
There's been no shortage of directional movement o...
