Mon, Sep 9 2024, 3:55 PM
The average lender's top tier 30yr fixed rate fell to the lowest level since April 2023 last week. That's down more than 1.25% over the past 5 months....
Mon, Sep 9 2024, 11:21 AM
Despite heavy volume and volatility, Friday's trading session managed to conclude in roughly sideways territory. The new week is starting off on a ca...
Fri, Sep 6 2024, 5:33 PM
Wild Ride on Jobs Day as Fed Speakers Steal The Show
We came into jobs report day expecting some clarity on ...
Fri, Sep 6 2024, 5:15 PM
Mortgage rates have a long and storied history of making big moves on the day that the big monthly jobs report comes out. In that regard, today was f...
Fri, Sep 6 2024, 10:55 AM
At first glance, this morning's jobs report suggested a modest but clearly-defined increase in the likelihood of a 50bp rate cut from the Fed in 2 wee...
Thu, Sep 5 2024, 4:54 PM
Jobs Data Poised to Influence Size of The Upcoming Rate Cut
Thursday ended up being fairly uneventful for bo...
Thu, Sep 5 2024, 4:17 PM
Wouldn't it be nice if you could know what was going to happen with mortgage rates before it actually happened? Since the dawn of time in financial m...
Thu, Sep 5 2024, 12:03 PM
Thursday morning had the highest concentration of economic reports so far this week with ADP, Challenger, Claims, and two flavors of Services PMI data...
Wed, Sep 4 2024, 4:20 PM
Persistent Rally After Data. More Data Ahead
Wednesday ended up being almost exclusively about the Job Openi...
Wed, Sep 4 2024, 3:54 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower for the 2nd straight day on Wednesday with the average lender right in line with their lowest levels since August 5th. In ...
Wed, Sep 4 2024, 12:09 PM
Market movement continues suggesting increased focus on labor-related economic data. This morning's JOLTS (job openings and labor turnover survey) is...
Tue, Sep 3 2024, 4:03 PM
No Major Reaction to Data, But Data Remains Relevant
As with most "first weeks of the month," this one has p...
Tue, Sep 3 2024, 3:24 PM
You never know what you're going to get on the days surrounding a 3 day weekend for financial markets, and that's doubly true when it corresponds with...
Tue, Sep 3 2024, 10:28 AM
Remember last Friday? It was sort of "weird" due to enigmatic selling pressure in the bond market. Yields stretched up to the highest levels in more ...
Fri, Aug 30 2024, 4:31 PM
Month-End Volatility, But No Bearing on Bigger Picture
It was a deceptively interesting Friday for the bond ...
Fri, Aug 30 2024, 3:42 PM
Day to day movement has been subdued in mortgage rates recently, and now the week over week movement is just as uneventful. Friday's average top tier...
Fri, Aug 30 2024, 9:14 AM
This morning's PCE inflation data was in line with expectations calling for a core monthly reading of 0.2%. In fact, the unrounded number was 0.16+ w...
Thu, Aug 29 2024, 5:00 PM
A Clear Reaction to Data Without Any Major Drama
After this morning's initial reaction to Initial Jobless Cl...
Thu, Aug 29 2024, 4:15 PM
It continues to be the case that mortgage rates are moving in a very narrow range with minimal changes from day to day. For instance, in the past week...
Thu, Aug 29 2024, 10:25 AM
There was a solid decade between 2010 and 2020 where weekly Jobless Claims data was completely inconsequential. The labor market had taken the hit fr...
Wed, Aug 28 2024, 4:09 PM
Without Major Data, Bonds Remain Quiet
While it makes riveting analysis a challenge, it's not necessarily a ...
Wed, Aug 28 2024, 3:56 PM
On Wednesday, the average mortgage lender was quoting top tier, conventional 30yr fixed rates at the 2nd lowest level in more than a year. That's cou...
Wed, Aug 28 2024, 11:22 AM
It would have been hard for the present week to be any more of a boring, sideways grind than the previous week, but so far, so boring! Why do we say ...
Tue, Aug 27 2024, 5:12 PM
MBS Continue to Outperform, Sorta
Despite a nice little rally from weaker opening levels to stronger closing...
Tue, Aug 27 2024, 4:59 PM
It was another generally uneventful day for the bond markets and, consequently, for the mortgage rates that take cues from bond market movement. Whil...
Tue, Aug 27 2024, 10:13 AM
Bonds are under a bit of pressure this morning with a modest extension of weakness that began in European trading hours. While this morning's selling...
Mon, Aug 26 2024, 5:00 PM
Uneventful Monday Despite AM Volatility
Durable goods data made for a semblance of volatility this morning, ...
Mon, Aug 26 2024, 4:07 PM
Mortgage rate movement is tied to activity in the bond market and like many things in the world of finance, the bond market depends on participation f...
Mon, Aug 26 2024, 9:10 AM
The Durable Goods report is a somewhat inconsistent report in terms of its ability to influence the bond market. There are definitely examples of big...
Fri, Aug 23 2024, 4:25 PM
Closing Near Week's Best Levels
If Friday was going to offer any example of scheduled events causing movemen...
Fri, Aug 23 2024, 3:47 PM
Every year, the Federal Reserve (aka "the Fed") gathers in Jackson Hole, WY with a bevy of other central bankers and academics to discuss and comment ...
Fri, Aug 23 2024, 10:19 AM
It's been a slow, uneventful week so far in terms of scheduled events. Even though we certainly saw some elevated volume and volatility over the past...
Thu, Aug 22 2024, 5:08 PM
It May Have Seemed Like a Bad Day, But...
Ever since topping out last Thursday morning, bonds have been stea...
Thu, Aug 22 2024, 4:29 PM
After moving lower for 4 straight days to hit the 3rd lowest levels in more than a year, mortgage rates bounced just a bit higher today. This was the...
Thu, Aug 22 2024, 10:20 AM
There is an ongoing bias toward better buying and lower yields in the bond market in spite of a string of decent economic reports in the past week. J...
Wed, Aug 21 2024, 4:19 PM
Bonds Snooze Through Fed Minutes
At first glance, and based on conventional wisdom, today's most relevant ca...
Wed, Aug 21 2024, 4:04 PM
Although the day to day changes in mortgage rates have been modest recently, the slow and steady improvement has brought the average top tier 30yr fix...
Wed, Aug 21 2024, 12:18 PM
Today brought the release of the first benchmark revision to the payroll data through March 2024. It caused widespread confusion both before and afte...
Tue, Aug 20 2024, 4:17 PM
What's Up With 'Secret' Jobs Revisions?
When it was limited to social media, it was one thing, but alarming headlines regarding seemingly under-...
Tue, Aug 20 2024, 4:11 PM
File today under "nice." While it wasn't amazing, significant, or even the byproduct of any interesting events, mortgage rates managed to drift modes...
Tue, Aug 20 2024, 10:09 AM
While there will certainly be some excitement at some point in the future (possibly even the near future), and while we are already well acquainted wi...
Mon, Aug 19 2024, 3:52 PM
Uneventful Summertime Monday
Monday started slow and stayed slow throughout. MBS held well within the narro...
Mon, Aug 19 2024, 3:42 PM
After the intense volatility seen earlier in August, the average change for mortgage rates on any given day has been shrinking. Last week was a mere s...
Mon, Aug 19 2024, 11:07 AM
In past examples of imminent shifts in Fed policy, the late August Jackson Hole symposium has been a relevant--and sometimes substantial--market mover...
Fri, Aug 16 2024, 5:54 PM
Calmer Week, But Are Storms Brewing?
By the time this week's CPI data came in as expected, it was highly unl...
Fri, Aug 16 2024, 5:17 PM
Mortgage rates had a much calmer week this week compared to the previous 2. The average top tier 30yr fixed rate held a fairly narrow range between 6...
Fri, Aug 16 2024, 12:21 PM
At first glance, the first half of the trading day has been volatile for the bond market, but at second glance, trading levels are just returning in l...
Thu, Aug 15 2024, 4:29 PM
Jobless Claims May Have Hit Bonds Harder Than Retail Sales
Hot take, and one that's subject to debate, depen...
Thu, Aug 15 2024, 3:53 PM
Mortgage rates had moved a bit lower since their most recent high last Thursday. By yesterday afternoon, the average lender had moved down to 6.49 fr...
Thu, Aug 15 2024, 10:15 AM
It's a surprisingly straightforward morning for the bond market. The two most important economic reports did exactly the opposite of what bond bulls ...
