Wed, Jul 10 2024, 4:04 PM
No New Inspiration Ahead of Thursday's CPI
We've officially run out of ways to characterize the boring, side...
Wed, Jul 10 2024, 3:44 PM
Mortgage rates have been in a narrow range for more than a month now with the average top tier 30yr fixed rate staying within striking distance of the...
Wed, Jul 10 2024, 11:07 AM
The most recent sideways slide began just before noon last Friday. Bonds had rallied in response to the jobs report with 10's closing at 4.29%. Sinc...
Tue, Jul 9 2024, 4:29 PM
MBS Outperform. Powell Punts. Waiting on CPI
Bonds showed slightly more notable signs of life this morning w...
Tue, Jul 9 2024, 4:08 PM
Mortgage rates are based on movement in the bond market and bonds haven't been moving much over the past 3 days. That's resulted in very little chang...
Tue, Jul 9 2024, 9:54 AM
The new week is one day less new today, but no less sideways so far. Yields rose microscopically in the overnight session, but even that is a generou...
Mon, Jul 8 2024, 4:10 PM
Uneventful Monday Leaves Bonds Little Changed
It was a quintessential summertime Monday to start the new wee...
Mon, Jul 8 2024, 3:50 PM
Apart from July 1st, mortgage rates have fallen every day so far this month. The counterpoint is that only adds up to 4 business days so far. The o...
Mon, Jul 8 2024, 10:42 AM
Bonds are finding their range in a perfectly inoffensive way to begin the new week. That's a victory considering a bit of weakness is never a surpris...
Fri, Jul 5 2024, 4:33 PM
Orderly, Logical Rally as Bonds Reiterate Data Dependence
Today's recap isn't any different than the morning...
Fri, Jul 5 2024, 4:21 PM
The average top tier 30yr fixed rate may not be back under 7% just yet, but as of Friday, it is back below the levels seen last Friday. That fact is ...
Fri, Jul 5 2024, 11:24 AM
Today's playbook was fairly straightforward with bonds being likely to move in the direction suggested by the jobs report. The only challenge would h...
Wed, Jul 3 2024, 2:18 PM
Data Over Politics, For Now
Several days ago, we were debating whether the presidential debate or the month-...
Wed, Jul 3 2024, 2:09 PM
"Data dependent" is one of the most common phrases heard from the Federal Reserve these days when it comes to rate-setting policy. And while the Fed ...
Wed, Jul 3 2024, 11:42 AM
The bond market will close at 2pm instead of 5pm today as a part of the Independence Day holiday (fully closed tomorrow). With only a few hours left,...
Tue, Jul 2 2024, 5:00 PM
Ultimately a Very Drama-Free Day; Back to Watching Data
Tuesday helped buck the recent trend of frustratingl...
Tue, Jul 2 2024, 4:48 PM
As is often the case with internet headlines these days, the headline overstates the reality on the ground--or at least over-dramatizes it. Consider...
Tue, Jul 2 2024, 11:37 AM
It's been an interesting and frustrating couple of days for the bond market with yields spiking for reasons that leave many bond watchers guessing. A...
Mon, Jul 1 2024, 5:28 PM
Changing The Narrative to Fit The Market Movement
Often, if not most of the time, one can observe the core i...
Mon, Jul 1 2024, 5:09 PM
Mortgage rates continued their frustrating and somewhat perplexing move higher today, thus bringing the average lender close to the highest levels sin...
Mon, Jul 1 2024, 11:45 AM
Friday's trading session was marked by a surprisingly weak reaction to economic data that should have helped bonds. In fact, it did at first, but thi...
Fri, Jun 28 2024, 5:48 PM
The week began with a distinct absence of interest rate volatility, but things changed in a big way by Friday--at least compared to the previous week ...
Fri, Jun 28 2024, 3:34 PM
What to Make of Week's Weakest Levels After Solid PCE Data
Things looked good for the bond market earlier th...
Fri, Jun 28 2024, 12:10 PM
This morning's most notable scheduled event and biggest potential market mover was the release of May's PCE price index, the Fed's favorite inflation ...
Thu, Jun 27 2024, 4:31 PM
Back in The Range Without Needing Too Much Convincing
Unlike yesterday, the overnight session sent bonds int...
Thu, Jun 27 2024, 4:20 PM
Mortgage rates rose at the fastest pace in 2 weeks yesterday, but that wasn't a very tall order considering an almost perfect absence of movement lead...
Thu, Jun 27 2024, 10:10 AM
It's been an odd morning for the bond market, but not in an objectionable way. In not so many words, bonds are rallying somewhat nicely despite an ab...
Wed, Jun 26 2024, 3:53 PM
Sideways Trend Looking Shifty
Using Treasury yields as a road map, the past week and a half has been excruci...
Wed, Jun 26 2024, 3:37 PM
After operating in an exceptionally narrow range since the beginning of last week, mortgage rates finally started doing something a bit different toda...
Wed, Jun 26 2024, 10:31 AM
The absence of relevant domestic market movers has been a theme all week. While that has gone hand in hand with relatively uninspired bond market mov...
Tue, Jun 25 2024, 3:06 PM
Decent 2yr Auction, But No Major Inspiration For Bonds
We've increasingly revisited the concept of the "insi...
Tue, Jun 25 2024, 2:36 PM
Mortgage rates have been flatter than the earth according to the flat earth society. Much like the actual earth in many areas in the middle of the co...
Mon, Jun 24 2024, 3:36 PM
No Major Data, No Major Movement
It was a snoozer of a day for bonds with yields and MBS prices holding well...
Mon, Jun 24 2024, 3:26 PM
Most mortgage lenders offer mortgage rates in increments of 0.125% (i.e. 6.875, 7.0, 7.125, 7.25, etc.). As such, a particularly notable day of mortg...
Mon, Jun 24 2024, 10:18 AM
With last Friday's range in 10yr yields of roughly 4.22 to 4.27, there was narrow window for today being an "inside day" (i.e. when the previous sessi...
Fri, Jun 21 2024, 4:41 PM
Ultimately an Uneventful Week Despite Micro-Volatility
This morning featured an overnight rally driven by we...
Fri, Jun 21 2024, 4:37 PM
After a rocky start to the year, things began to improve for rates and the inflation outlook in May. June took the improvement to the next level, but ...
Fri, Jun 21 2024, 10:56 AM
S&P Global (formerly Markit) PMIs are the standard PMI around the world, but have long been second fiddle to ISM PMIs in the U.S. That's certainly st...
Thu, Jun 20 2024, 3:26 PM
Counterintuitive Weakness Early, But Inconsequential in Bigger Picture
The past two trading days each had th...
Thu, Jun 20 2024, 3:12 PM
The bond market was closed on Wednesday for the Juneteenth holiday. As such, mortgage lenders were either closed or unable to update mortgage rates b...
Thu, Jun 20 2024, 11:07 AM
On Tuesday, bonds had an initial, positive reaction to the Retail Sales data that clearly ended mere minutes after the release. Yields trended slight...
Tue, Jun 18 2024, 4:13 PM
Additional Mid-Day Gains Independent of Data and Events
Bonds traded the day in two distinct sections. Firs...
Tue, Jun 18 2024, 3:36 PM
Mortgage rates began the week with a modest move back up and over the 7% threshold, but managed to erase some of those losses today. The improvement ...
Tue, Jun 18 2024, 10:19 AM
It's nearly impossible to avoid hearing the phrase "data dependent" when following financial markets these days and this morning's movement is the lat...
Mon, Jun 17 2024, 4:40 PM
MBS Outperform as Treasuries Give Back Some of Last Week's Gains
After rallying from roughly 4.45 to 4.22% l...
Mon, Jun 17 2024, 4:20 PM
Mortgage rates moved modestly higher to start the new week. With the average top tier 30yr fixed rate just under 7% on Friday, this meant a move to j...
Mon, Jun 17 2024, 11:17 AM
Last week, MBS underperformance was front and center. One of the justifications was the fact that MBS almost always underperform when Treasuries go o...
Fri, Jun 14 2024, 3:36 PM
Once More: What's Up With MBS Underperformance?
The notion of MBS underperforming Treasuries is front and ce...
Fri, Jun 14 2024, 3:27 PM
Today saw the average conventional 30yr fixed rate rise ever so slightly for top tier scenarios. Most lenders are still quoting those scenarios just ...
Fri, Jun 14 2024, 1:07 PM
The bond market has a lot on its mind after this past week of economic data and events. Inflation quickly and increasingly looks like it may (finally...
