Fri, Nov 8 2024, 5:22 PM
The bond market dictates day to day movement for all manner of interest rates, including mortgages. On election night, bond yields (another word for ...
Fri, Nov 8 2024, 11:41 AM
"Buy the rumor, sell the news" is an age-old aphorism in financial markets for a reason. It accurately speaks to the real and repeatable phenomenon w...
Thu, Nov 7 2024, 5:12 PM
Breaking Down The Big Non-Fed-Related Rally
As intraday charts give way to daily charts in the coming weeks,...
Thu, Nov 7 2024, 4:33 PM
There's a distinct risk that, even in the financial community, that people will look back on today's drop in interest rates and conclude it must have ...
Thu, Nov 7 2024, 2:00 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains Since earlier in the year, labor market conditio...
Thu, Nov 7 2024, 12:27 PM
This morning's only relevant economic data was weekly jobless claims. The headline was right in line with forecasts and the non-adjusted number keeps...
Wed, Nov 6 2024, 5:29 PM
Does The Fed Still Matter?
Bonds sold off overnight as the reality of Trump's victory became apparent. Trad...
Wed, Nov 6 2024, 3:03 PM
Mortgage rates spent the entire month of October moving higher at a fairly quick pace. Some of that had to do with stronger economic data, but at lea...
Wed, Nov 6 2024, 9:45 AM
Heading into the election, we knew the bond market was losing ground in concert with improving odds of a Trump victory and red sweep. After being sur...
Tue, Nov 5 2024, 4:54 PM
Bonds Brace For Election Results
It was an interesting round trip for the bond market today as overnight wea...
Tue, Nov 5 2024, 4:00 PM
More often than not, mortgage lenders only set rates once a day. Their decisions are based on trading levels in the underlying bond market. Even thou...
Tue, Nov 5 2024, 11:08 AM
Last week could easily have left us with the impression that the bond market's love affair with economic data was put on hold until after the election...
Mon, Nov 4 2024, 4:13 PM
Election Remains Dominant Source of Volatility
While the average day of the past few weeks has involved elec...
Mon, Nov 4 2024, 3:16 PM
Love it or hate it, election-related volatility has been having a big impact on the bond market and, thus, mortgage rates. Most of the volatility has...
Mon, Nov 4 2024, 10:08 AM
Up until last Friday, 10yr Treasury yields had consistently closed at 4.27-4.28 last week. Now this morning, we're at 4.27-4.28 again. That's the sh...
Fri, Nov 1 2024, 5:07 PM
Why Bonds Tanked Despite Super Low NFP
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) came in at 12k versus a median forecast of 113...
Fri, Nov 1 2024, 4:50 PM
It is our longstanding policy to strictly avoid politics except in cases where the political realm legitimately intersects with relevant events for ra...
Fri, Nov 1 2024, 10:06 AM
When the median forecast for today's jobs report began circulating, many a market watcher felt that the 113k forecast was too low compared to the 254k...
Thu, Oct 31 2024, 4:53 PM
Will Jobs Data Finally Get Bond Market's Attention?
It's been a weird week so far with a crazy combination o...
Thu, Oct 31 2024, 3:35 PM
Mortgage rates rates moved moderately higher today, and while that leaves the average 30yr fixed rate only slightly higher than it was on Tuesday morn...
Thu, Oct 31 2024, 12:16 PM
If it weren't for the surge of volume in Treasuries lining up perfectly with economic report release times, one might wonder if traders even care that...
Wed, Oct 30 2024, 4:35 PM
Decent Showing in Light of Stronger Data
Bonds lost ground today, but not as much as one might expect given ...
Wed, Oct 30 2024, 3:57 PM
The jobs report that came out at the beginning of October was a big wake up call for interest rates. Up until then, the prevailing belief was that th...
Wed, Oct 30 2024, 11:26 AM
It's been an interesting morning for the bond market so far. ADP employment came in much stronger than expected. 15 minutes later, Q3 GDP was slight...
Tue, Oct 29 2024, 4:40 PM
Tue, Oct 29 2024, 3:56 PM
Mortgage rates tend to be updated only once per day. Lenders set rates based on trading levels in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) which are essentia...
Tue, Oct 29 2024, 10:18 AM
As we've noted on many occasions in the past few years, JOLTS (the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) used to be a non-event in terms of economic...
Mon, Oct 28 2024, 5:16 PM
Bonds Doing What Bonds Do
Another week, another chance for bonds to do the only thing it seems like they kno...
Mon, Oct 28 2024, 3:58 PM
It's no mystery that mortgage rates have had a terrible October. As of last Friday, the average lender's top tier 30yr fixed rates were up to 6.90--a...
Mon, Oct 28 2024, 10:40 AM
After 2 frustrating weeks spent moving toward higher yields without any major justification from the economic data, things are about to change. From ...
Fri, Oct 25 2024, 3:40 PM
Stronger Start, Weaker Finish
Bonds had a fine morning with overnight gains bringing yields in line with the...
Fri, Oct 25 2024, 12:35 PM
Mortgage rates reached their highest level of the week on Wednesday and haven't really moved since then. Technically each subsequent day saw a micros...
Fri, Oct 25 2024, 11:17 AM
Granted, we were by no means looking for big things from this morning's Durable Goods data, but somehow it still managed to underwhelm. That's not sa...
Thu, Oct 24 2024, 4:56 PM
Better Balance, Finally
In the context of the first 3 days of the week, bonds pulled off a miracle today. M...
Thu, Oct 24 2024, 4:02 PM
Mortgage rates have risen every day since October 15th and some of the jumps have been fairly big. That followed an even bigger increase earlier in t...
Thu, Oct 24 2024, 10:31 AM
Thursday morning brought the week's only arguably important economic data in the form of Jobless Claims and S&P's PMIs. Both have a decent track reco...
Wed, Oct 23 2024, 4:35 PM
Why Would Rates Care About a One-Party Sweep?
Our morning commentary resulted in widespread questions regard...
Wed, Oct 23 2024, 4:09 PM
Mortgage rates have been moving two directions recently and both of them are "up." Only the pace changes. Today's pace was modest to moderate, but b...
Wed, Oct 23 2024, 10:13 AM
For those of you who already feel like you fully understand the message in Tuesday's recap, the next few days and weeks might get a little repetitive,...
Tue, Oct 22 2024, 4:35 PM
Much Calmer, But Risks Remain
Bonds had a significantly calmer day in terms of day-over-day change. In fact...
Tue, Oct 22 2024, 3:47 PM
Mortgage rates jumped to their highest levels since late July yesterday. Underlying market movement wasn't readily attributable to any singular headl...
Tue, Oct 22 2024, 10:30 AM
Monday was frustrating for the bond market. It was a medium large sell-off that would have made more sense as a flat, forgettable Monday. The only th...
Mon, Oct 21 2024, 4:48 PM
Ratio of Weakness to Confirmed Explanations is Off The Charts
Every year there are a few days where bonds mo...
Mon, Oct 21 2024, 3:42 PM
By the smallest of margins, mortgage rates are back up to levels last seen in July. That means we've gone from being fairly close to 6% in mid-Septem...
Mon, Oct 21 2024, 12:16 PM
First off, there's no great explanation for the extent to which bonds are losing ground this morning. These days happen occasionally. Sometimes an e...
Fri, Oct 18 2024, 4:03 PM
Waiting Game Returns With Straightforward, Sleepy Friday
Bonds were technically a hair weaker in the overnig...
Fri, Oct 18 2024, 3:52 PM
There hasn't been much day to day movement in mortgage rates after the big jump caused by the jobs report earlier in the month. That jump ended on Mo...
Fri, Oct 18 2024, 11:02 AM
While the recent trend has been unpleasant for the bond market, at least it's logical. Apart from some uncertainty related to the election and forthc...
Thu, Oct 17 2024, 5:27 PM
Fairly Big Sell-Off, But Last Week's Range is Intact
Bonds dealt with a trifecta of unfriendly economic data...
Thu, Oct 17 2024, 3:45 PM
Mortgage rates are driven by the bond market and bonds consistently take cues from economic data. Traders have been waiting on this Thursday's econom...
