Mon, Jun 26 2023, 12:46 PM
Here we are (still) with 30yr yields closer to 4% than 3%, economic growth softening, leading indicators pointing to further contraction, and inflatio...
Fri, Jun 23 2023, 5:17 PM
A majority of the housing market data on any given month tends to come out mostly on the same week. This was that week and the takeaway was that the h...
Fri, Jun 23 2023, 3:24 PM
Still Waiting For a Breakout After Friday's Uneventful Strength
Friday began with solid gains courtesy of we...
Fri, Jun 23 2023, 11:19 AM
Granted, today's only available domestic economic data is the S&P PMIs, but the market could have justified either a stronger or weaker response. The...
Thu, Jun 22 2023, 4:35 PM
One important disclaimer right upfront: there's no real need to concern yourself with recent day-to-day movement in mortgage rates if your goal is to ...
Thu, Jun 22 2023, 4:06 PM
Powell Says Old Things in New Ways and Bonds Don't Like It
It was day 2 for Fed Chair Powell's congressional...
Thu, Jun 22 2023, 1:51 PM
Have you heard the one about the 3.72-3.84 range? While we haven't seen much of the ceiling this week, the floor is getting a workout. Yesterday aft...
Wed, Jun 21 2023, 3:46 PM
No Whammies From Powell, 20yr Auction Helps
After a clear rejection of the 3.72% floor in 10yr yields overni...
Wed, Jun 21 2023, 3:43 PM
Any discussion about mortgage rates rising or falling in the month of June requires the caveat about the trend being exceptionally flat in the bigger ...
Wed, Jun 21 2023, 1:08 PM
While it would be nice to have our 3.4-3.6 range back, the past few weeks have seen the adoption of a new 3.72-3.84 range. While ranges this narrow o...
Tue, Jun 20 2023, 4:56 PM
Deceptively Uneventful Trading Day For Bonds
Right out of the gate this morning, bonds responded to the mass...
Tue, Jun 20 2023, 4:31 PM
Mortgage rates are primarily driven by changes in the value of certain bonds that trade on the open market. Those bonds (mortgage-backed securities o...
Tue, Jun 20 2023, 12:42 PM
Bonds started the holiday-shortened week at moderately higher yields, but rallied several bps during European hours. 8:30am econ data pushed back, er...
Fri, Jun 16 2023, 6:34 PM
Rates may not be as high as they were several months ago or as low as they were 5 weeks ago, but they're close enough to either boundary that the thre...
Fri, Jun 16 2023, 4:02 PM
Rangebound Weakness With Fed Speakers Keeping Bonds Wary
Bonds might have had a chance to hold steady today-...
Fri, Jun 16 2023, 12:22 PM
Heading into this week's CPI and Fed Day combo, we expected bonds to be broadly sideways with elevated volatility. But rather than give new direction...
Thu, Jun 15 2023, 4:12 PM
Earl Data-Driven Rally And Not Much Drama After That
Despite a slew of other economic data that was stronger...
Thu, Jun 15 2023, 3:26 PM
Not to be confused with the big monthly jobs report (the one that includes a count of "nonfarm payrolls" as well as the official unemployment rate in ...
Thu, Jun 15 2023, 9:55 AM
Last week's biggest bond rally occurred on Thursday, immediately following the release of the highest Jobless Claims number since late 2021. Exactly ...
Wed, Jun 14 2023, 4:55 PM
As was widely expected, the Federal Reserve held rates steady today. Mortgage rates were also generally steady, but the two have little to do with on...
Wed, Jun 14 2023, 4:42 PM
Fed Threads Needle With Forecasts That Are Not Really Forecasts
Four times a year, the Fed updates its SEP (...
Wed, Jun 14 2023, 2:00 PM
The following is a comparison of today's Fed statement to the previous statement from May 3rd. Deletions are struck through and in red. Additions ar...
Wed, Jun 14 2023, 12:44 PM
Today's Fed events are both straightforward, mostly predictable, and potentially highly consequential. The Fed's line of thinking will likely prove t...
Tue, Jun 13 2023, 4:10 PM
Tuesday brought an unfriendly paradoxical reaction for rates. Don't worry. We can shift gears to words that make more sense now. Rates began the ...
Tue, Jun 13 2023, 3:41 PM
Frustrating Snowball Selling Despite Decent CPI
Even though CPI came in right in line with forecasts today (...
Tue, Jun 13 2023, 11:12 AM
Today brought the first of the week's two major events with core CPI coming in right in line with the 0.4% forecast. Headline inflation fell even mor...
Mon, Jun 12 2023, 3:59 PM
Mortgage rates drifted slightly higher this morning with the average lender moving up to the highest levels in nearly 2 weeks. Top tier 30yr fixed sc...
Mon, Jun 12 2023, 3:45 PM
MBS Outperform Amid Treasury Supply Pressure
Bonds made it through the overnight session without any major d...
Mon, Jun 12 2023, 11:06 AM
The week's much anticipated headliners are clearly the CPI/Fed combo on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. While those events still account for a va...
Fri, Jun 9 2023, 4:20 PM
In a surprising turn of events, this week's biggest market mover for interest rates was a policy announcement by the Bank of Canada (BOC). The event w...
Fri, Jun 9 2023, 3:57 PM
Canada Doesn't Really Matter. Bring on CPI and The Fed
The day began with a hunt for the mystery market move...
Fri, Jun 9 2023, 9:46 AM
This otherwise sleepy Friday began with the sort of clearly defined spike in volume and yield that often accompanies big ticket economic data. With t...
Thu, Jun 8 2023, 4:19 PM
Economic data is one of the most basic and reliable inputs for the bond market. The bond market, in turn, dictates day to day interest rate movement....
Thu, Jun 8 2023, 4:17 PM
Claims Data Completely Erases At Least One Day of Higher Rate Expectations
There have been been several days...
Thu, Jun 8 2023, 12:04 PM
If you like low rates, you are often unfortunately rooting for negative economic data. You're not a bad person. Bonds are simply a hedge against eco...
Wed, Jun 7 2023, 4:03 PM
Mortgage rates continue to operate in a fairly narrow range but we've been mostly moving in one direction inside that range so far this month. Late l...
Wed, Jun 7 2023, 3:48 PM
BOC Warns US Rate Market Against Complacency
US rate traders are pretty sure they have the Fed figured out a...
Wed, Jun 7 2023, 1:15 PM
Yesterday, it was the Royal Bank of Australia (RBA) with it's first rate hike after "skipping" a few meetings. Today it was the Bank of Canada (BOC)....
Tue, Jun 6 2023, 3:42 PM
By Friday, there's a distinct possibility that you'll be tired of hearing different versions of the same story. The plot: last Friday's jobs report p...
Tue, Jun 6 2023, 3:34 PM
Nothing to See Here
It would be hard to make a case for any other day in the past month being more boring th...
Tue, Jun 6 2023, 10:37 AM
With the week's only top tier economic release hitting on Monday morning, the path of least resistance for the rest of the week is a choppy, sideways ...
Mon, Jun 5 2023, 4:56 PM
Mortgage rates held fairly steady over the weekend. That wasn't necessarily destined to be the case as the underlying bond market suggested another m...
Mon, Jun 5 2023, 4:43 PM
Weaker Data Helps Bonds Hold Ground
Bonds remained in selling mode after Friday's jobs report. 10yr yields ...
Mon, Jun 5 2023, 12:29 PM
Bonds began the day in weaker territory but quickly found their footing after softer PMI data. In particular, ISM Services (50.3 vs 52.2) helped 10yr...
Fri, Jun 2 2023, 6:40 PM
After dominating the news cycle for weeks, the debt ceiling issue is suddenly resolved and the bond market doesn't seem to care. The jobs report prove...
Fri, Jun 2 2023, 4:13 PM
What Debt Ceiling? Yields Follow NFP Higher
After being utterly bombarded for weeks, newswire feeds at tradi...
Fri, Jun 2 2023, 2:00 PM
Nonfarm payrolls were up 339k, well above the 190k forecast. At the same time, unemployment rose from 3.4% to 3.7%, well above the 3.5% forecast. Ho...
Thu, Jun 1 2023, 5:04 PM
Data-Driven Rally, But There's Bigger Data Ahead
Yesterday's economic data made for a bit of back and forth ...
Thu, Jun 1 2023, 1:13 PM
Bonds had been hoping for econ data to reinforce a ceiling after a recent run to the highest yields in months and the past few days have delivered. T...
Wed, May 31 2023, 4:43 PM
After hitting the highest levels in several months last Friday, mortgage rates have fallen fairly quickly in the new week. As bond markets improved t...
