If the only metric from this morning's jobs report was the uptick in unemployment from 4.4 to 4.6%, and if that was the last of this week's big ticket econ data, it wouldn't be a surprise to see a more aggressive rate rally. As it stands, unemployment was tempered by a higher participation rate and less dire unrounded numbers (taken together, these actually made unemployment closer to unchanged). Add in stronger payroll growth, a surge in core retail sales, and the need to wait and see how Thursday's CPI comes out, and the choppy, lackluster rally is easier to reconcile.
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- ADP Weekly Employment
- 16.25k vs 4.75k prev
- Non Farm Payrolls (Oct)
- -105 vs -- f'cast, 119K prev
- Non Farm Payrolls (Nov)
- 64K vs 50K f'cast, -- prev
- Participation Rate (Nov)
- 62.5% vs -- f'cast, 62.4% prev
- Retail Sales (Oct)
- 0.0% vs 0.1% f'cast, 0.2% prev
- Retail Sales Control Group MoM (Oct)
- 0.8% vs 0.4% f'cast, -0.1% prev
- Unemployment rate mm (Nov)
- 4.6% vs 4.4% f'cast, 4.4% prev
- ADP Weekly Employment
Modestly stronger after jobs report. MBS up almost an eighth and 10yr down 1.1bps at 4.165
Paradoxically modestly weaker now with MBS unchanged and 10yr up 1.3bps at 4.191
Back near best levels of the day. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 2.1bps at 4.156
Leveling off at only modestly stronger levels. MBS up an eighth and 10yr still down 2.1 ticks at 4.156
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