Fri, Mar 31 2023, 3:34 PM
Bonds Rally on Month-End Trading and Friendly Inflation Data
Bonds began the day in unchanged territory and ...
Fri, Mar 31 2023, 12:12 PM
Today brings two new updates on inflation. Core PCE inflation came in at 4.6 vs 4.7% forecasts, down from a 4.7% level previously. This isn't nearly...
Thu, Mar 30 2023, 4:09 PM
This week's theme has undoubtedly been the extreme absence of volatility in the rate market. Whether we're looking at mortgage rates themselves or a ...
Thu, Mar 30 2023, 3:52 PM
Uncanny Calm Unlikely to Last
For the third straight day, the bond market traded in a range that was signifi...
Thu, Mar 30 2023, 12:00 PM
Volume and volatility have rapidly died down over the past 3 days as the market settles into a waiting game. What are we waiting for? Successive day...
Wed, Mar 29 2023, 5:03 PM
For the second day in a row, mortgage rates didn't move nearly as much as they have been moving on any given day during the past 3 weeks. This is a r...
Wed, Mar 29 2023, 4:44 PM
Another Boring (But Resilient) Day
After the past few weeks, boring trading days aren't necessarily unwelcom...
Wed, Mar 29 2023, 12:10 PM
In the wake of bank failures earlier in the month, stock prices and bond yields had been highly correlated. This is a more normal trading pattern for...
Tue, Mar 28 2023, 5:09 PM
The week began with a noticeable uptick in mortgage rates relative to last week's lows. Today's momentum continued in the same direction, but with le...
Tue, Mar 28 2023, 4:59 PM
The Most Boring Trading Day in Weeks
Bond market volatility exploded on March 10th after the failure of Sili...
Tue, Mar 28 2023, 10:20 AM
The week began with a somewhat sharp sell-off. This followed the steady selling pressure in bonds seen last Friday (albeit after the lowest opening y...
Mon, Mar 27 2023, 4:18 PM
Mortgage rates hit their lowest levels in just over 6 weeks on Friday as investors braced for bad news in the banking sector. Such fears tend pull mo...
Mon, Mar 27 2023, 3:53 PM
Bonds Buyers Back Off as Banks Bounce
Bank health continues to dominate the news cycle with investors buying...
Mon, Mar 27 2023, 9:26 AM
Bond yields began rising at 2am this morning when news broke regarding the acquisition of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). First Citizens bank will acquire...
Fri, Mar 24 2023, 4:40 PM
Bonds Manage to Hold Gains Despite Risk Recovery
Everything has been driven by the "risk-on, risk-off" movem...
Fri, Mar 24 2023, 10:07 AM
The old sign on the trading floor that proudly boasted we had gone 2 days without a systemic banking flare-up (as of yesterday) has been reset to "0,"...
Thu, Mar 23 2023, 4:21 PM
Over the course of the past two days, the average conforming 30yr fixed rate has moved down to the lowest levels since early February for most lenders...
Thu, Mar 23 2023, 3:56 PM
Bonds Improve on Late Day Risk Aversion; Thoughts on Liquidity
Bonds began the day in slightly weaker territ...
Thu, Mar 23 2023, 12:11 PM
The Fed cleared a lot up for the market yesterday by confirming that inflation still matters, but that systemic banking problems also matter. Powell ...
Wed, Mar 22 2023, 5:05 PM
There was some debate as to whether or not the Federal Reserve would hike the Fed Funds Rate today, although the consensus was for a 0.25% increase. ...
Wed, Mar 22 2023, 4:55 PM
Why Bonds Are Rallying Despite a Fed Hike and a Stubborn Dot Plot
Today promised to be one of the most inter...
Wed, Mar 22 2023, 2:02 PM
Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust picked up in recent months, months and are runn...
Wed, Mar 22 2023, 11:19 AM
It's difficult and probably not that important to rank today's Fed day against other iterations over the past few years. It's easy to say that it is ...
Tue, Mar 21 2023, 4:24 PM
Banking sector fears were responsible for a nice little drop in mortgage rates over the past 2 weeks. As those fears subside (to some extent, anyway)...
Tue, Mar 21 2023, 3:50 PM
Stocks and Bond Yields Moving Higher Together; Fed on Deck
Today's trading session turned out to be every bi...
Tue, Mar 21 2023, 10:05 AM
Relative to the presence of important market developments and high volatility, the current landscape for bonds is surprisingly simple. The banking pa...
Mon, Mar 20 2023, 4:13 PM
Let's start today's rate coverage with a public service announcement on the best way to be a consumer of mortgage rate data online. It can be quite ...
Mon, Mar 20 2023, 3:55 PM
Absence of Data Leaves Even More Focus on The Fed
If there happened to be some significant economic data tod...
Fri, Mar 17 2023, 4:48 PM
There’s certainly a chicken/egg problem when it comes to interest rate news. Is it the Fed’s decisions that move rates? Or do market forces move rates...
Fri, Mar 17 2023, 4:46 PM
Simple, Boring, Half Point Rally in MBS
There won't be too many days with a half point MBS rally that are as...
Fri, Mar 17 2023, 9:59 AM
While there are no new bank failures in play, financial markets have traumatic memories from last Friday and last weekend. Better safe than sorry hea...
Thu, Mar 16 2023, 4:04 PM
Bank Lifelines Lead Bond Market Reversal
Financial markets continue feeling out prospects for global banking...
Thu, Mar 16 2023, 4:00 PM
Mortgage rates are ideally determined only once per day, several hours into the business day. This gives mortgage lenders time to observe a baseline ...
Thu, Mar 16 2023, 11:21 AM
While yesterday's Credit Suisse concerns were serious, the last official major bank failure happened 5 days ago. That's a very long time considering t...
Wed, Mar 15 2023, 4:17 PM
Does Credit Suisse qualify as a "big bank" anymore? The company could be argued to be circling the drain for many months, but nonetheless holds hundr...
Wed, Mar 15 2023, 4:03 PM
You Have Gone Zero Days Without a Systemic Contagion Flare-Up
As of Tuesday, the global financial market was...
Wed, Mar 15 2023, 11:01 AM
After systemic banking fears died down earlier in the week, Credit Suisse and other European banks are saying "game on!" Stock prices of said banks l...
Tue, Mar 14 2023, 3:21 PM
Where's the 4th Biggest Bank Failure?
With the 2nd biggest bank failure in history on Friday and the 3rd big...
Tue, Mar 14 2023, 2:58 PM
Mortgage rates made substantial gains yesterday as financial markets underwent a classic flight to safety. This involves selling riskier assets like ...
Tue, Mar 14 2023, 9:47 AM
What a difference a little systemic banking crisis makes! Without the last 3 business days, today's CPI data may well have tipped the scales toward a...
Mon, Mar 13 2023, 4:13 PM
Breaking Down the Big Move in Rates and Considering The Road Ahead
The 2nd and 3rd largest bank failures in ...
Mon, Mar 13 2023, 2:53 PM
If you're just getting caught up or otherwise haven't heard, the biggest news in financial markets since last Friday has been the precipitous failure ...
Mon, Mar 13 2023, 8:59 AM
Despite the announcement of a Fed/Treasury/FDIC backstop for SVB and Signature Bank, financial markets are trading as if current events imply a sea ch...
Fri, Mar 10 2023, 3:20 PM
SVB > NFP = Supermassive Bond Rally
In a matter of 48 hours, Silicon Valley Bank has gone from being a compa...
Fri, Mar 10 2023, 12:36 PM
The most notable development on jobs day has stunningly turned out to be the trading that came before the jobs report in the overnight session. Bonds...
Thu, Mar 9 2023, 3:38 PM
While the Federal Reserve doesn't directly dictate mortgage rates, the outlook for Fed rate hikes matters a great deal. In the days and weeks leading...
Thu, Mar 9 2023, 3:24 PM
Thursday Was Nice, But It's All About Friday
There wasn't much for the bond market to sink its teeth into on...
Thu, Mar 9 2023, 9:11 AM
After a ho-hum and mostly sideways overnight session, bonds are starting the day with a surprisingly swift reaction to the Jobless Claims data. While...
Wed, Mar 8 2023, 4:40 PM
There's probably not going to be any way around it. However volatile rates may have been in the past 2 weeks, they're at risk of much larger swings i...
Wed, Mar 8 2023, 4:26 PM
Slightly Weaker, But It Could Have Been Worse
Bonds are heading out the door in only moderately weaker terri...
