Wed, May 4 2022, 4:30 PM
Fed Finally Sticks to Script. Bonds Like It
Fed days have seen a series of increasingly hawkish adjustments ...
Wed, May 4 2022, 2:01 PM
Indicators Although of overall economic activity edged down in the first quarter, household spending and employment business have fixed ...
Wed, May 4 2022, 10:09 AM
At the risk of repeating too many words from yesterday's recap, we'll leave it at this: the Fed will hike by 50bps today. It won't be a surprise to t...
Tue, May 3 2022, 4:03 PM
Fed Day Preview: What Are They Doing and How Much Will Bonds Care?
Given all the bond market volatility seen...
Tue, May 3 2022, 11:23 AM
10yr yields came into the day looking comfortable in the rejection of the 3% ceiling that was briefly tested yesterday and overnight. That occurred a...
Mon, May 2 2022, 4:06 PM
Rocky Start to Fed's Normalization Revelation Week
The Fed has been in full-fledged policy tightening mode i...
Mon, May 2 2022, 10:05 AM
In addition to bringing the typical big market movers scheduled for the first week of any given month, we'll also get a fairly important Fed announcem...
Fri, Apr 29 2022, 4:46 PM
Insult to Injury But Still Waiting on Next Week's Fed
Mixed messages in the morning's PCE inflation data sen...
Fri, Apr 29 2022, 11:59 AM
This morning's much-anticipated core PCE inflation headline came out at 5.2% year-over-year versus a median forecast and previous reading of 5.3%. Gr...
Thu, Apr 28 2022, 4:22 PM
Nice Intraday Bounce, But No Implication For Bigger Picture
Bonds began the day losing ground following hott...
Thu, Apr 28 2022, 11:40 AM
Yesterday, we surmised that the absence of new rally momentum meant rates weren't yet ready to confirm a major ceiling without digesting a bit more da...
Wed, Apr 27 2022, 3:58 PM
MBS Outperform as Treasuries Hit Several Snags
In the bigger picture, the absence of any new rally momentum ...
Wed, Apr 27 2022, 11:06 AM
If only the bond rally of the past 2 days had begun next Monday... Due to its "one week early" timing, the result has been a technical correction tha...
Tue, Apr 26 2022, 3:54 PM
More Gains, But Harder to Hold After Europe Stopped Trading
Bonds made decent gains overnight as overseas ma...
Tue, Apr 26 2022, 10:44 AM
Here at the end of April, bonds are seeing a similar rally to the one seen at the end of March. At least that's true in terms of the number of days o...
Mon, Apr 25 2022, 4:11 PM
New Bounce, But Same Question
Rates rallied briskly today as investors focused on China's covid lockdowns, o...
Mon, Apr 25 2022, 9:42 AM
Global equities indices fell sharply at various opening bells (and the closing bell too, as far as Asia was concerned). This was less of a concern fo...
Fri, Apr 22 2022, 3:26 PM
Abnormally Uneventful Friday For Bonds
Whether we're talking about actual Fridays or Thursdays that fall bef...
Thu, Apr 21 2022, 3:38 PM
Daly Upstages Powell in Today's Fed Drama
With both Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Lagarde scheduled to ...
Thu, Apr 21 2022, 11:35 AM
The centerpiece of today's event calendar is a panel discussion on the global economy hosted by the IMF. Both Powell and ECB President Lagarde are on...
Wed, Apr 20 2022, 4:01 PM
Strong Auction Lost in Shuffle as Bonds Enjoy an Easy Win
Sometimes during massive selling sprees, the tradi...
Wed, Apr 20 2022, 11:27 AM
We could certainly discuss the fact that bonds are improving so far today amid a strong curve flattening trade, but recent experience suggests we wait...
Tue, Apr 19 2022, 5:25 PM
Fed Speakers and Corporate Bonds Keep Negative Momentum Intact
Bonds came into the domestic session moderate...
Tue, Apr 19 2022, 11:20 AM
Another day, another brutal sell-off with little by way of compelling justification. This one may actually be more simple than it seems at first glan...
Mon, Apr 18 2022, 4:36 PM
Flat Day For MBS as Markets Wait For More Activity
With most of Europe out of the office, volume got off to ...
Mon, Apr 18 2022, 12:14 PM
With it being the Monday after a 3.5 day weekend, with London closed, and no significant data on the econ calendar, today's marching orders are to act...
Thu, Apr 14 2022, 2:35 PM
Another False Alarm Turns Into Bond Market Beat-Down
If today's bond market behavior wasn't making us cry, w...
Wed, Apr 13 2022, 4:01 PM
How About Now (For A Ceiling in Rates) ?
Producer prices surged much higher than expected in this morning's ...
Wed, Apr 13 2022, 12:09 PM
The bond market is running out of potential market movers on this holiday-shortened week with this afternoon's 30yr bond auction and tomorrow's ECB an...
Tue, Apr 12 2022, 4:30 PM
Nice Data-Driven Rally, But Keep Recent False Starts in Mind
Incessant trends toward higher rates bring the ...
Tue, Apr 12 2022, 12:11 PM
CPI (the Consumer Price Index) is arguably the most important data point for interest rates in a world where inflation is at the highest levels since ...
Mon, Apr 11 2022, 3:51 PM
Running Out of Ways to Say "Higher Rates"
Market watchers are at risk of major desensitization when it comes...
Mon, Apr 11 2022, 11:30 AM
Bonds lost ground early in the overnight session before buyers stepped in to defend the new multi-year highs in yields across the curve. Japanese inve...
Fri, Apr 8 2022, 4:20 PM
Rates Keep Playing Defense Ahead of Volatile, Holiday-Shortened Week
Wednesday's Fed Minutes might have serv...
Fri, Apr 8 2022, 11:42 AM
Hopeful consolidation... Crushing defeat... Hopeful consolidation... Crushing defeat. We've hesitated time and again to endorse too much hope for a t...
Thu, Apr 7 2022, 3:54 PM
Bad Day For The 10yr But Not For MBS
The spread between 2 and 10yr yields has widened more than 27bps in 2 d...
Thu, Apr 7 2022, 11:53 AM
Following the second shallow inversion of the 2yr vs 10yr yield curve on Tuesday, 10yr yields have been surging higher while 2s recover. The curve is...
Wed, Apr 6 2022, 4:24 PM
Bonds Doing Admirable Job of Digesting Harsh New Reality
Yesterday's comments from Fed Vice Chair Brainard e...
Wed, Apr 6 2022, 11:51 AM
There is a highly reliable track record of the bond market moving quickly to get in position for the Fed's expected course of action. When those expe...
Tue, Apr 5 2022, 4:43 PM
Market's Fear is Bigger Than The Fed's Appetite For Destruction
The Fed is on a mission to destroy demand fo...
Tue, Apr 5 2022, 12:19 PM
Sorry... I couldn't think of any "B" words for "weakest levels."
Our big project of the past week and a half has been to assess the possibility of a...
Mon, Apr 4 2022, 4:01 PM
Curve Steepening Helps MBS, but Keeps Broader Indecision Intact
We're looking to the first few days of April...
Mon, Apr 4 2022, 11:38 AM
NFP Friday rarely falls on the first day of the month/quarter. The last time it happened in April was 2016, and it was wholly uneventful. The same m...
Fri, Apr 1 2022, 5:20 PM
Rate Recovery Stumbles, But Jury Still Out
As we said in the run up to today's trading session, we need to s...
Fri, Apr 1 2022, 12:09 PM
Bonds got off to a much weaker start on Friday as "new month, new quarter" tradeflows leave sellers firmly in control. This began right out of the ga...
Thu, Mar 31 2022, 4:34 PM
Mixed Day For Bonds, But Same Opportunities (And Risks) Remain
The day began fairly well for the bond market...
Thu, Mar 31 2022, 10:53 AM
This is the "to be or not to be" question for the bond market right now. Said differently, have we suffered sufficient slings and arrows for investor...
Wed, Mar 30 2022, 3:49 PM
Yields Bounce Back Nicely, Ending Lower For 2nd Straight Day
Back to back rally days are a rarity in March. ...
Wed, Mar 30 2022, 9:52 AM
Oil prices aren't everything when it comes to the bond market, but they've been an important domino a few places farther up the chain due to their imp...
Tue, Mar 29 2022, 4:05 PM
Another Compelling Bounce. Is This Another Head Fake?
Much like Wednesday of last week, bonds managed to pos...
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