Thu, Aug 11 2022, 5:21 PM
Making Sense of Today's Seemingly Senseless Selling
Let's refresh our memories regarding 2022's bond trading...
Thu, Aug 11 2022, 12:57 PM
Up is down, old is new, green is red, etc. Here we are with a second straight day with inflation data coming in significantly lower than forecast and...
Wed, Aug 10 2022, 5:02 PM
How In The World Did Bonds Lose Ground After a Big Drop in Inflation?
This morning's hotly anticipated CPI d...
Wed, Aug 10 2022, 12:24 PM
Reliably predicting the future in terms of directional market movement is tricky if not wholly impossible, but predicting higher odds of volatility is...
Tue, Aug 9 2022, 4:24 PM
Tuesday Was Tame, But Wednesday Probably Won't Be
Tuesday's trading session was boring, with rates hitting d...
Tue, Aug 9 2022, 11:16 AM
Last week offered up decent bookends for a narrow, short-term range. A series of downbeat economic reports set the low yields last Monday. Then Fed ...
Mon, Aug 8 2022, 4:13 PM
Bonds Remain Resilient Despite Supply-Related Headwinds
Supply and Demand 101 tells us that higher supply me...
Mon, Aug 8 2022, 9:41 AM
Although Friday's post-payrolls sell-off was unpleasant for the bond market in the context of a single trading day, it was arguably a resilient showin...
Fri, Aug 5 2022, 3:57 PM
Strong Data Redefining The Rate Outlook
Between Wednesday's ISM Services data and Friday's jobs report, the ...
Fri, Aug 5 2022, 1:29 PM
This morning's jobs report showed payroll creation at 528k for July compared to a median forecast of 250k and a previous reading of 398k. Perhaps equ...
Thu, Aug 4 2022, 4:31 PM
Refreshingly Resilient Ahead of Jobs Report
Bonds began the day with a slight boost from Europe's reaction t...
Thu, Aug 4 2022, 12:26 PM
This morning's announcement from the Bank of England (BOE) led to a bond rally that helped 10yr yields hit 2.656% and MBS gain more than an eighth of ...
Wed, Aug 3 2022, 3:16 PM
Surprisingly Resilient After Stronger ISM Data
Wednesday's key data point was the ISM Non-Manufacturing inde...
Wed, Aug 3 2022, 10:49 AM
Written before today's ISM data: As of Monday afternoon, 10yr yields had spent 3 days breaking below a floor that had been intact for more than 3 mon...
Tue, Aug 2 2022, 4:13 PM
What's Up With Today's Big Nasty Sell-Off?
After a stretch of 3 days where bonds could seemingly do no wrong...
Tue, Aug 2 2022, 11:16 AM
No one wants to be Chicken Little when bonds are in the midst of a nice rally, but there's been no change to the recent thesis: Rates likely peaked in...
Mon, Aug 1 2022, 4:10 PM
August Starts Strong Thanks to Weaker Econ Data
During the Fed's press conference last week, Powell reiterat...
Mon, Aug 1 2022, 11:02 AM
After several attempts to break through the low 2.7s in the past 4 months, 10yr yields finally made it into the 2.6s last Thursday and managed to hold...
Fri, Jul 29 2022, 6:03 PM
Modest Gains, But Huge Moves in Rate Sheets
By the end of the week, the power of MBS coupon stack compressio...
Fri, Jul 29 2022, 10:37 AM
Both the June PCE inflation data and the Employment Cost Index came in hotter than expected this morning. Bonds certainly thought about selling in re...
Thu, Jul 28 2022, 3:54 PM
Big Rally After Big GDP Miss
We don't often think much of GDP as a major consideration for the bond market, ...
Thu, Jul 28 2022, 12:23 PM
Feel free to debate recession vs no recession amongst yourselves. The economy is more complex than a single word, but today's GDP number says the eco...
Wed, Jul 27 2022, 4:56 PM
MBS Outperform After Powell Discusses The Fed's Outlook
The Fed stuck closely to the script in today's annou...
Wed, Jul 27 2022, 2:01 PM
Overall economic activity appears to Recent indicators of spending and production have picked up after edging down in the first quarter. Job softe...
Wed, Jul 27 2022, 12:36 PM
A few weeks ago, expectations ramped up for the Fed to hike rates by 100bps at the conclusion of today's meeting. That sentiment lasted only a few da...
Tue, Jul 26 2022, 3:56 PM
Leading-Off And Pulling-Back Ahead of Fed
Bonds began the day in stronger territory thanks to another overni...
Tue, Jul 26 2022, 10:55 AM
July has been a month with a decidedly European flair for the US bond market. Sure, there's been plenty of inspiration from domestic inflation data a...
Mon, Jul 25 2022, 4:17 PM
Slow Start With Some Resilience After AM Weakness
Volume was "summertime low," which is par for the course o...
Mon, Jul 25 2022, 10:52 AM
Bonds rallied fairly sharply at the end of last week, largely in response to weaker economic data at home and abroad. In Friday's recap, we discussed...
Fri, Jul 22 2022, 4:59 PM
Rally Accelerates After Weak PMI Data. Fed Coming Up Next Week
Eurozone PMI data was much weaker in the over...
Fri, Jul 22 2022, 11:12 AM
This week's decidedly European theme was only reinforced overnight as bonds benefitted from weaker PMI data in Germany, France, and the overall Eurozo...
Thu, Jul 21 2022, 4:26 PM
Big Bad Econ Data and Big ECB News = Big Victory For Bonds
Bonds shrugged off a 50bp hike from the European ...
Thu, Jul 21 2022, 11:15 AM
If you had to pick today's most important calendar item based on its potential impact on the bond market, the European Central Bank (ECB) announcement...
Wed, Jul 20 2022, 3:51 PM
Strong Start and Strong Reversal Ahead of ECB
European markets led bonds well into stronger territory overni...
Wed, Jul 20 2022, 10:01 AM
On a week without much by way of domestic econ data and the biggest ticket market mover being Thursday's European Central Bank announcement, it's no s...
Tue, Jul 19 2022, 11:08 AM
If we were limited to only one observation about the bond market over the past few trading sessions, it would be that volume and volatility have been ...
Mon, Jul 18 2022, 4:42 PM
Weaker Despite Decent Mid-Day Bounce
Bonds began the week in weaker territory with yields pulled higher by E...
Mon, Jul 18 2022, 11:15 AM
This week's economic data is primarily focused on the housing market with NAHB, Housing Starts, and Existing Sales on the first 3 days respectively. ...
Fri, Jul 15 2022, 3:38 PM
Why Were Rates Able to Defy Stronger Data?
With at least one Fed speaker mentioning Retail Sales as having a...
Fri, Jul 15 2022, 12:10 PM
With at least one Fed speaker mentioning Retail Sales as having a bearing on the Fed's debate between a 75bp and 100bp hike at the upcoming July meeti...
Thu, Jul 14 2022, 4:23 PM
Nice Bounce Back After a Bumpy Morning
All in all, today's trading range fell inside yesterday's and this we...
Thu, Jul 14 2022, 12:27 PM
In the bigger picture, longer-term yields are trading a narrow, sideways range this week with today's yields well inside yesterday's range and yesterd...
Wed, Jul 13 2022, 3:25 PM
Did Rates Just Realize They're Invincible?
Want to see an interest rate that isn't worried about going much ...
Wed, Jul 13 2022, 11:59 AM
We knew CPI was the biggest potential market mover this week and it hasn't disappointed in that regard. It has also provided bonus entertainment in t...
Tue, Jul 12 2022, 4:00 PM
Bonds Retreat After Auction. Here Comes CPI
Bonds began the day in a surprisingly strong stance and it didn'...
Tue, Jul 12 2022, 10:30 AM
Bonds are starting the day in much stronger territory, and this raises a few interesting points and questions. First off, it's interesting to see a 2...
Mon, Jul 11 2022, 4:30 PM
Bonds Open to Suggestion Ahead of Inflation Data
After selling off fairly swiftly for most of last week, bon...
Mon, Jul 11 2022, 12:27 PM
Heading into the new week early this morning, Treasuries refused to move any higher than Friday's highs and ultimately moved lower as they followed an...
Fri, Jul 8 2022, 5:01 PM
Rates Defeated by Data. Another Big Fight Next Week
This week's recap is fairly straightforward. Rates were...
Fri, Jul 8 2022, 12:54 PM
This morning's nonfarm payroll count came in at 372k versus a 268k consensus. Unemployment and wages held steady (with a small +0.1% revision to last...
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