The big news so far this week is the absence of any concrete conclusion to the debt ceiling debate (delivered in box labelled "debt ceiling debate solution"). The solution would effectively be to punt on actual decisions until after the next presidential election, but that still requires some agreement in the short term. That agreement is yet to be realized, and bonds are catching a bid as a result of the uncertainty. Chicago PMI and JOLTS data took turns pushing yields lower and higher (in that order) this morning, but neither move stuck.
We're left with resilience around 3.686% and resistance around 3.646% so far today:
Those moves quickly get lost in the shuffle when we zoom out a bit. Perhaps even more importantly, we're left with a new takeaway: European bonds have been rallying sharply so far this week, and this is as good an explanation as any for this week's rally momentum in US bonds.