Mon, Nov 1 2021, 9:13 AM
Any rate watcher who lived through 2013 has not-so-fond memories of the taper tantrum. (For those of you who weren't tuned in, that refers to the inc...
Fri, Oct 29 2021, 2:53 PM
Nice Recovery as Month-End Trades Roll In
Month-end trading isn't always helpful for bonds. Indeed, that's ...
Fri, Oct 29 2021, 9:56 AM
It's an interesting morning in the bond market--at least for those of us who are interesting both in general rate momentum and nitty gritty MBS moveme...
Thu, Oct 28 2021, 4:30 PM
Rally Week Finds Its Limit After ECB And Auction
Bonds were having a great week by the end of the day on Wed...
Thu, Oct 28 2021, 10:54 AM
From armchair economists to respected bond market analysts, there was a lot of "chatter" about the potential for today's GDP reading to come in much l...
Wed, Oct 27 2021, 9:06 AM
Bonds managed to make positive headway for a third straight trading day on Tuesday, but the gains weren't enough to break yields below the prevailing ...
Tue, Oct 26 2021, 4:08 PM
Another Green Day, But Can We Trust It?
Bonds were briefly weaker mid-morning, but rallied back to close at ...
Tue, Oct 26 2021, 9:28 AM
At the start of the trading session, Treasuries have the distinction of trading through the overnight hours with the lowest volume and volatility in m...
Mon, Oct 25 2021, 4:17 PM
Nice Recovery, But Big-Picture Damage Remains
Monday could have been worse. Bonds started out in weaker ter...
Mon, Oct 25 2021, 10:48 AM
10yr yields hit a long-term ceiling of 1.776 on March 30th, 2021 as bonds quickly priced in vaccine efficacy and fiscal policy. Several sideways mont...
Fri, Oct 22 2021, 4:45 PM
Solid Afternoon Bounce, But Context Matters
There's surely some great analogy to be made about perspective (...
Fri, Oct 22 2021, 10:04 AM
To buy the dip or not to buy the dip (in bond prices). That is the question faced by traders today as 10yr yields hit the 1.70% technical level in af...
Thu, Oct 21 2021, 4:21 PM
Fear of The I-Word
Today's 5yr TIPS auction met with heavy demand for inflation protection. While that didn...
Thu, Oct 21 2021, 10:51 AM
Considering yields have pushed to new long-term highs on 3 out of the past 3 days, it's safe to say that bonds are "trending" as opposed to flat/sidew...
Wed, Oct 20 2021, 4:24 PM
Sideways to Slightly Weaker After Another Long-Term High
10yr yields hit a 5-month high early in the overnig...
Wed, Oct 20 2021, 10:31 AM
Today has the dubious distinction of being exactly 2 weeks before the Fed announcement (the one that's likely to contain the official tapering announc...
Tue, Oct 19 2021, 4:30 PM
The Trend is Not Your Friend
October has been one of those unpleasant months where bonds have several reason...
Tue, Oct 19 2021, 10:01 AM
It's an interesting time for rates because the market collectively knows where it should be going (i.e. toward even higher rates), yet seems to be dra...
Mon, Oct 18 2021, 4:20 PM
Decent Recovery After a Rocky Start
Bonds sold off right at the start of the overnight session with yields n...
Mon, Oct 18 2021, 10:05 AM
We typically don't talk too much about volume. It doesn't much matter for the purpose of tracking intraday reprice risk because the price is the pric...
Fri, Oct 15 2021, 3:08 PM
Steady Selling All Day For Bonds
Bonds may have rallied on Mon-Thu, but Friday's theme has been quite differ...
Fri, Oct 15 2021, 8:57 AM
Thursday brought more gains for bonds, but not the kind that led us to expect a continuation of the rally. Rather, we argued the improvement was bett...
Thu, Oct 14 2021, 4:25 PM
Can The Good Times Keep Rolling?
Referring to the past 3 days as "good times" is questionable. Perhaps "tim...
Thu, Oct 14 2021, 9:26 AM
Headlines like "Indecision Setting In" have ironically been seen at the start of some days that ended up being big movers, so apologies in advance if ...
Wed, Oct 13 2021, 3:45 PM
No Floors Harmed in Defense of The Ceiling
With yields vaulting higher last week, we've been looking for any...
Wed, Oct 13 2021, 9:45 AM
There has been more than a little bit of willingness on the part of the bond market to react to Fed's rate hike outlook. This began in earnest after ...
Tue, Oct 12 2021, 4:15 PM
Bonds Improve After Treasury Auction; Why MBS Are Lagging
Bonds began the day weaker, but improved steadily ...
Tue, Oct 12 2021, 9:26 AM
Last week was unpleasant for the bond market. Yields tested and then broke above the technical ceiling at 1.56%, ultimately making it as high as 1.62...
Fri, Oct 8 2021, 4:01 PM
What's Up With Super Weak NFP Tanking The Bond Market?!
Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) were much weaker than expect...
Fri, Oct 8 2021, 11:07 AM
Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) were much weaker than expected (194k vs 500k f'cast), but that had almost no impact on the bond market in the first hour of tr...
Thu, Oct 7 2021, 3:29 PM
Highest Yields in Months. Could Jobs Report Make it Worse?
After a somewhat hopeful bounce in yesterday's t...
Thu, Oct 7 2021, 9:57 AM
It remains to be seen what impact tomorrow's jobs report might have given that it would take an atrociously weak number to derail the Fed's November t...
Wed, Oct 6 2021, 4:26 PM
Bonds Vote To Hold The Range Despite Stronger Data
10yr yields tested multi-month highs overnight (1.573), b...
Wed, Oct 6 2021, 9:36 AM
1.573% on a 10yr US Treasury Note?! While this still isn't the place a yield-seeking investor would park their money (inflation-adjusted returns at a...
Tue, Oct 5 2021, 4:35 PM
Rates Move Back Toward Recent Highs.
Bonds started the day only modestly higher after a fairly uneventful ov...
Tue, Oct 5 2021, 11:28 AM
Modest weakness on Monday meant the door was still open for bonds to challenge the lower boundary of the higher rate range seen last week. Today's tr...
Mon, Oct 4 2021, 4:16 PM
Could be Better. Could be Worse
Bonds ended last week on a strong note with yields challenging the lowest le...
Mon, Oct 4 2021, 9:57 AM
Bonds managed to consolidate by the end of last week after yields surged to the highest levels since June. They're now faced with the choice to acqui...
Fri, Oct 1 2021, 4:43 PM
Modestly Strong, Uneventful Trading Day, Version 3
Last week conditioned us for Drama. Monday and Tuesday su...
Fri, Oct 1 2021, 11:32 AM
Today is off to a relatively tame start with yields trading in the narrowest range of the week so far. It also marks the 3rd straight day of modest r...
Thu, Sep 30 2021, 4:11 PM
Do Today's Gains Mean The Selling Spree is Over?
After some initial weakness brought 10yr yields back in lin...
Thu, Sep 30 2021, 9:26 AM
In case you missed it, things have been bad for bonds since last Thursday. A combination of factors conspired to push yields higher at the fastest pac...
Wed, Sep 29 2021, 4:17 PM
Token Rally a Small Concession For Recent Selling Spree
After 4 straight days of heavy selling pressure, bon...
Wed, Sep 29 2021, 10:39 AM
When bonds sell off as decisively as they have over the last 4 trading sessions, it's only a matter of time before buyers push back. The bigger the s...
Tue, Sep 28 2021, 4:50 PM
Here's What's NOT Moving The Bond Market
Another day, another surprisingly brisk selling spree in the bond m...
Tue, Sep 28 2021, 10:02 AM
Momentum, macroeconomic considerations, and Fed policy continue to dominate the bond market since last Thursday as traders are swept up in the widespr...
Mon, Sep 27 2021, 4:29 PM
Losses Continue Despite Decent 5yr Treasury Auction
Today's 5yr Treasury auction was respectable with the in...
Mon, Sep 27 2021, 9:50 AM
At the end of last week, we noted the looming Treasury auction cycle at the start of this week. Due to calendar constraints, it's earlier than normal...
Fri, Sep 24 2021, 3:37 PM
Range Breakout or New Trend Channel?
It was an interesting trading session in the bond market as Treasury yi...
Fri, Sep 24 2021, 10:47 AM
As early as 4 months ago, we'd been eyeing late September as do or die time for the low rate environment. By early September, we had a very clear pic...
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