Fri, Apr 23 2021, 2:49 PM
Winning Streak Thwarted, But Not By Much
This morning's Day Ahead pondered the possibility of a 4th straight...
Thu, Apr 22 2021, 4:01 PM
Forget the ECB; Taxes Saved Bonds Today
First off, bonds didn't really need "saving." They were only modest...
Thu, Apr 22 2021, 10:04 AM
Today's only real significant market mover is/was the ECB Announcement and press conference. They weren't expected to change policy, but markets were...
Wed, Apr 21 2021, 3:28 PM
4th Straight Day Inside Last Thursday's Range
Last Thursday was the best rally day we've seen in months and ...
Wed, Apr 21 2021, 10:04 AM
There are no major events on the econ calendar today and no compelling market movers in play so far this week--at least not for bonds. Stocks, on the...
Tue, Apr 20 2021, 4:21 PM
Decent Day For Bonds as Stocks Sell
A good, old-fashioned "risk-off" rally has been hard to come by in 2021,...
Tue, Apr 20 2021, 9:39 AM
How can you avoid reading this prose when the headline is so gripping? Slow trading! Sideways grind! Lack of obvious near-term inspiration! If we'...
Mon, Apr 19 2021, 3:19 PM
Slow Start to a Potentially Slow Week.
Bonds did a good enough job of holding their ground today thus leavin...
Mon, Apr 19 2021, 10:02 AM
When the most recent leg of US bond market weakness began in February, US 10yr yields were around 1.1% and German Bund yields (effectively the "EU 10y...
Fri, Apr 16 2021, 5:21 PM
Still a Decent Week Despite Friday Slide
Thursday morning was exceptionally strong for bonds--perhaps too st...
Fri, Apr 16 2021, 10:06 AM
For virtually all of 2021 (and much of Q4 2020), we've been tracking an uptrend in Treasury yields. As the overall move grew to a size rarely seen in...
Thu, Apr 15 2021, 3:56 PM
Snowball Rally For Bonds! Why? And What Next?
Heading into today, we expected the bond market to ignore po...
Thu, Apr 15 2021, 10:19 AM
Heading into today, we expected the bond market to ignore potentially stronger Retail Sales data. Not only did bonds overlook the big beat (9.8 vs 5....
Wed, Apr 14 2021, 4:44 PM
Super Sideways Ahead of Retail Sales
Retail Sales used to be a big ticket report, but like so many others, h...
Wed, Apr 14 2021, 10:09 AM
Yesterday was good for bonds with 10yr yields covering more ground toward lower yields during domestic trading hours than any other day since February...
Tue, Apr 13 2021, 4:03 PM
Strong Showing With Help From Vaccine Drama and a Solid Bond Auction
The day began with bonds falling back t...
Tue, Apr 13 2021, 9:01 AM
It's a sign of the times that the bond market responded with a modest rally following a stronger reading on CPI and a looming record-size 30yr bond au...
Mon, Apr 12 2021, 4:04 PM
Bonds Look Past Weaker Treasury Auction
Treasury auction have been more important than normal so far in 2021...
Mon, Apr 12 2021, 9:43 AM
Three weeks ago, the bond market made its first attempt to rally toward lower yields after ending the previous week bouncing at a ceiling of 1.75% in ...
Fri, Apr 9 2021, 4:40 PM
Respectable Recovery After Morning Drama
"Drama" may be a bit of an overstatement, but bonds were weak enoug...
Fri, Apr 9 2021, 10:50 AM
Yesterday's closing commentary, entitled "Stronger Case For Stability But Not Complacency" acknowledged the reassuringly sideways vibe offered by the ...
Thu, Apr 8 2021, 4:00 PM
Stronger Case For Stability, But Not Complacency
With today's solid gains, this week becomes the best argume...
Thu, Apr 8 2021, 9:46 AM
2 weeks ago, we talked about 2021's Thursday curse. It was finally broken last week. Today's early gains mean we may be looking at a second consecut...
Wed, Apr 7 2021, 4:30 PM
No Reaction to Fed Minutes (Or Anything Else For That Matter)
It's been a light week in terms of scheduled d...
Wed, Apr 7 2021, 10:32 AM
The longer-term rising rate trend kicked into higher gear in February. After several false starts, bonds are in the midst of their best attempt yet a...
Tue, Apr 6 2021, 4:25 PM
Evidence For a Ceiling Continues to Accumulate
All the normal disclaimers are in order:
- This is a rising...
Tue, Apr 6 2021, 10:26 AM
Global financial markets are entirely open today for the first time since last Thursday, thus giving us a chance to see if this month's momentum will ...
Mon, Apr 5 2021, 3:57 PM
Rates Still Trying to Establish a Ceiling
The rising rate trend of 2021 is increasingly being called into qu...
Mon, Apr 5 2021, 9:59 AM
The rising rate trend of 2021 is increasingly being called into question--even if only temporarily--due to the inability of 10yr yields to quickly bre...
Fri, Apr 2 2021, 2:41 PM
Huge Jobs Numbers and a Logical (But Muted) Bond Reaction
There were "whisper" numbers earlier this week sug...
Fri, Apr 2 2021, 9:40 AM
There were "whisper" numbers earlier this week suggesting nonfarm payrolls could come in closer to 1 million as opposed to the median forecast of 647k...
Thu, Apr 1 2021, 4:09 PM
Thursday Curse Broken. NFP Friday
Thursdays have been almost universally bad in 2021--a point that was drive...
Thu, Apr 1 2021, 10:55 AM
March's month/quarter-end trading got more credit than normal for moving markets in the past week or two. As such, it's fair to hope for April to bri...
Wed, Mar 31 2021, 4:21 PM
Month/Quarter-End Trading Refresher; More Stimulus Details
Today is the last day of the month and quarter. ...
Wed, Mar 31 2021, 11:10 AM
Today is the last day of the month and quarter. That means more for financial markets than it does for many other sectors. While there is no hard an...
Tue, Mar 30 2021, 3:49 PM
'Unchanged' Feels Like a Victory
Bonds began the day at the highest yields in more than a year and slowly wo...
Tue, Mar 30 2021, 9:36 AM
Bonds remain in the midst of a very large and sustained sell-off. Generally speaking, the rising rate environment is a logical byproduct of pande...
Mon, Mar 29 2021, 4:27 PM
New Week, New Weakness
The new week wasted very little time in reinforcing the realities of 2021. This is a...
Mon, Mar 29 2021, 10:21 AM
Last week ended on a sour note with moderately brisk selling on Friday erasing what had been a relatively hopeful trend up until that point. Bonds co...
Fri, Mar 26 2021, 5:13 PM
Valiant Effort But This Week's Bounce-Back Effort Falls Short
Insult, meet injury? Oh, you're already acqua...
Fri, Mar 26 2021, 10:46 AM
1.62% has been one of the most important technical levels for 10yr yields in the past month. After breaking above last week, we had a chance to confi...
Thu, Mar 25 2021, 3:37 PM
Thursday Curse Continues But It Was Still a Good Day for Bonds
Although bonds won't be able to say they b...
Thu, Mar 25 2021, 10:06 AM
Today could be the day. If markets were to close right now, it would be the first day in 2021 where bonds could say they'd rallied 4 days in a row or...
Wed, Mar 24 2021, 3:44 PM
Decent Day Despite Lukewarm Treasury Auction. Dovish Fed Helps
This morning's weaker Durable Goods data had ...
Wed, Mar 24 2021, 9:27 AM
Bonds are starting the day in roughly unchanged territory after trying to go on a stronger run in the overnight session. If the remainder of the week...
Tue, Mar 23 2021, 3:33 PM
Strong Move Today. Need Confirmation in Coming Days
Bonds walked their own path today with gains overnight h...
Tue, Mar 23 2021, 10:40 AM
Fed Chair Powell will be in the hot seat again today, only this time in the form of congressional testimony on the CARES Act. The prepared remarks fo...
Mon, Mar 22 2021, 4:24 PM
Not a Bad Day, But We Need More Convincing
Rates have tried to convince us that the worst is over on several...
Mon, Mar 22 2021, 9:51 AM
Last week was the 7th straight week of higher bond yields--something we haven't seen since Q2 2009, when bonds were undergoing their first correction ...
Fri, Mar 19 2021, 4:47 PM
Fed Confirms Market's Fear; Bonds Manage to Hold This Week's Range
The last time bonds sold off for 6 consec...
MBS Market Alerts
