Thu, Aug 25 2022, 11:46 AM
Bonds were already trading fairly sideways in the overnight session and only experienced modest volatility after this morning's economic data. Unless...
Wed, Aug 24 2022, 4:24 PM
More Weakness. Is This All About The Fed?
Bonds began the day in slightly stronger shape but began to sell ...
Wed, Aug 24 2022, 10:46 AM
The unfriendly trend remains firmly intact this morning with 10yr yields up several more bps and MBS down another quarter point despite mixed economic...
Tue, Aug 23 2022, 4:29 PM
Fun While it Lasted: Bonds Give Up Data-Inspired Gains
Bonds started out weaker early this morning but were ...
Tue, Aug 23 2022, 11:34 AM
Be still, our beating hearts! This morning's economic data came out weaker and bonds instantly engaged in a logical and sensibly-sized rally. Tradin...
Mon, Aug 22 2022, 4:30 PM
Unfriendly Trend as Fed Fear Sets In
Without any obvious, individual motivations in the news or on the econ ...
Mon, Aug 22 2022, 12:07 PM
Bonds don't have too much so stress about this week in terms of calendar events. The notable exception is Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech on F...
Fri, Aug 19 2022, 5:15 PM
Bonds Tank After EU Inflation Data
For those who caught this morning's commentary on European inflation data...
Fri, Aug 19 2022, 12:55 PM
Yesterday ended with yields grinding into an ever narrower consolidation pattern with 2.91% serving as the ceiling in the 10yr. That's exactly where ...
Thu, Aug 18 2022, 4:02 PM
Consolidation Continues as Yields Avoid Both Floors and Ceilings
Whereas 10yr yields were willing to tempora...
Thu, Aug 18 2022, 11:53 AM
The 2.91% technical level in 10yr yields held firm as a ceiling overnight and domestic traders began pushing a lower-yield agenda in the 7am hour. At...
Wed, Aug 17 2022, 4:19 PM
UK Inflation Data Steals Show From Domestic Market Movers
Today's Retail Sales report and Fed Minutes were s...
Wed, Aug 17 2022, 11:03 AM
This morning's Retail Sales data is already out and it was close enough to forecast to avoid having a big impact on bonds. Unfortunately, overnight t...
Tue, Aug 16 2022, 3:57 PM
Inconsequentially Weaker and Increasingly Range-Bound
The word "range" appears in both the opening and closi...
Tue, Aug 16 2022, 10:56 AM
Tuesday is getting off to a similar start to Monday when it comes to the level of movement, but this time around, it's in the opposite direction. Dep...
Mon, Aug 15 2022, 5:01 PM
Super Sideways Summertime Monday
Oddly enough, we find ourselves more likely to be discussing summertime tra...
Mon, Aug 15 2022, 10:07 AM
The previous week ended with bonds on the run and yields threatening to break up and over the 2.85% technical level. That breakout was somewhat incon...
Fri, Aug 12 2022, 5:28 PM
Stable and Sideways Now That Rates Are Back in The Range
The past two days had seen more volatility in rates...
Fri, Aug 12 2022, 11:45 AM
Summertime trading is detectably different from the rest of the year. Volume and liquidity are a bit lighter. Counterintuitive moves are more common...
Thu, Aug 11 2022, 5:21 PM
Making Sense of Today's Seemingly Senseless Selling
Let's refresh our memories regarding 2022's bond trading...
Thu, Aug 11 2022, 12:57 PM
Up is down, old is new, green is red, etc. Here we are with a second straight day with inflation data coming in significantly lower than forecast and...
Wed, Aug 10 2022, 5:02 PM
How In The World Did Bonds Lose Ground After a Big Drop in Inflation?
This morning's hotly anticipated CPI d...
Wed, Aug 10 2022, 12:24 PM
Reliably predicting the future in terms of directional market movement is tricky if not wholly impossible, but predicting higher odds of volatility is...
Tue, Aug 9 2022, 4:24 PM
Tuesday Was Tame, But Wednesday Probably Won't Be
Tuesday's trading session was boring, with rates hitting d...
Tue, Aug 9 2022, 11:16 AM
Last week offered up decent bookends for a narrow, short-term range. A series of downbeat economic reports set the low yields last Monday. Then Fed ...
Mon, Aug 8 2022, 4:13 PM
Bonds Remain Resilient Despite Supply-Related Headwinds
Supply and Demand 101 tells us that higher supply me...
Mon, Aug 8 2022, 9:41 AM
Although Friday's post-payrolls sell-off was unpleasant for the bond market in the context of a single trading day, it was arguably a resilient showin...
Fri, Aug 5 2022, 3:57 PM
Strong Data Redefining The Rate Outlook
Between Wednesday's ISM Services data and Friday's jobs report, the ...
Fri, Aug 5 2022, 1:29 PM
This morning's jobs report showed payroll creation at 528k for July compared to a median forecast of 250k and a previous reading of 398k. Perhaps equ...
Thu, Aug 4 2022, 4:31 PM
Refreshingly Resilient Ahead of Jobs Report
Bonds began the day with a slight boost from Europe's reaction t...
Thu, Aug 4 2022, 12:26 PM
This morning's announcement from the Bank of England (BOE) led to a bond rally that helped 10yr yields hit 2.656% and MBS gain more than an eighth of ...
Wed, Aug 3 2022, 3:16 PM
Surprisingly Resilient After Stronger ISM Data
Wednesday's key data point was the ISM Non-Manufacturing inde...
Wed, Aug 3 2022, 10:49 AM
Written before today's ISM data: As of Monday afternoon, 10yr yields had spent 3 days breaking below a floor that had been intact for more than 3 mon...
Tue, Aug 2 2022, 4:13 PM
What's Up With Today's Big Nasty Sell-Off?
After a stretch of 3 days where bonds could seemingly do no wrong...
Tue, Aug 2 2022, 11:16 AM
No one wants to be Chicken Little when bonds are in the midst of a nice rally, but there's been no change to the recent thesis: Rates likely peaked in...
Mon, Aug 1 2022, 4:10 PM
August Starts Strong Thanks to Weaker Econ Data
During the Fed's press conference last week, Powell reiterat...
Mon, Aug 1 2022, 11:02 AM
After several attempts to break through the low 2.7s in the past 4 months, 10yr yields finally made it into the 2.6s last Thursday and managed to hold...
Fri, Jul 29 2022, 6:03 PM
Modest Gains, But Huge Moves in Rate Sheets
By the end of the week, the power of MBS coupon stack compressio...
Fri, Jul 29 2022, 10:37 AM
Both the June PCE inflation data and the Employment Cost Index came in hotter than expected this morning. Bonds certainly thought about selling in re...
Thu, Jul 28 2022, 3:54 PM
Big Rally After Big GDP Miss
We don't often think much of GDP as a major consideration for the bond market, ...
Thu, Jul 28 2022, 12:23 PM
Feel free to debate recession vs no recession amongst yourselves. The economy is more complex than a single word, but today's GDP number says the eco...
Wed, Jul 27 2022, 4:56 PM
MBS Outperform After Powell Discusses The Fed's Outlook
The Fed stuck closely to the script in today's annou...
Wed, Jul 27 2022, 2:01 PM
Overall economic activity appears to Recent indicators of spending and production have picked up after edging down in the first quarter. Job softe...
Wed, Jul 27 2022, 12:36 PM
A few weeks ago, expectations ramped up for the Fed to hike rates by 100bps at the conclusion of today's meeting. That sentiment lasted only a few da...
Tue, Jul 26 2022, 3:56 PM
Leading-Off And Pulling-Back Ahead of Fed
Bonds began the day in stronger territory thanks to another overni...
Tue, Jul 26 2022, 10:55 AM
July has been a month with a decidedly European flair for the US bond market. Sure, there's been plenty of inspiration from domestic inflation data a...
Mon, Jul 25 2022, 4:17 PM
Slow Start With Some Resilience After AM Weakness
Volume was "summertime low," which is par for the course o...
Mon, Jul 25 2022, 10:52 AM
Bonds rallied fairly sharply at the end of last week, largely in response to weaker economic data at home and abroad. In Friday's recap, we discussed...
Fri, Jul 22 2022, 4:59 PM
Rally Accelerates After Weak PMI Data. Fed Coming Up Next Week
Eurozone PMI data was much weaker in the over...
Fri, Jul 22 2022, 11:12 AM
This week's decidedly European theme was only reinforced overnight as bonds benefitted from weaker PMI data in Germany, France, and the overall Eurozo...
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