Mon, Jan 9 2023, 3:32 PM
Decent Day Helps Legitimize Friday's Gains
Any time we see a strong move on NFP Friday with a hint of "snowb...
Mon, Jan 9 2023, 11:32 AM
Last week brought a series of economic reports that took the bond market in both directions. Thursday's data pushed yields somewhat higher, but Frida...
Fri, Jan 6 2023, 4:49 PM
ISM and NFP Team Up To Send Rates Sharply Lower
Bonds got off to a strong start today when the wage componen...
Fri, Jan 6 2023, 9:50 AM
Here's a puzzler--at least at first glance. This morning's much-anticipated jobs report came out stronger than expected with nonfarm payrolls at 223k...
Thu, Jan 5 2023, 3:24 PM
Bonds Push Back Against Stronger Employment Data, But Tomorrow is a Different Fight
Bonds got off to a weake...
Thu, Jan 5 2023, 11:32 AM
The past two days of moderate gains have been "nice," but they were just a prologue to the more relevant opening days of 2023. For the last 2.5 weeks...
Wed, Jan 4 2023, 4:01 PM
Another Day Holding Modest Gains After AM Weakness
French CPI (of all the crazy things) helped bonds improve...
Wed, Jan 4 2023, 11:17 AM
In 15 years of MBS Live, this may be the first time French CPI made a headline, but today, it's deserved. It's not so much that France is a critical b...
Tue, Jan 3 2023, 3:54 PM
Decent Gains Despite Headwinds
Bond market participants rushed back into the office today with volumes at th...
Tue, Jan 3 2023, 11:04 AM
The holiday season was unmistakably marked by a strong bias toward selling in the bond market. All we could do was watch the weakness and hold out h...
Fri, Dec 30 2022, 1:16 PM
Early Close; Light Volume and Month-End Could Cause Volatility
The early-close trading session at the end of...
Thu, Dec 29 2022, 3:22 PM
Nice Gains, But No Particular Reason
This is how they get ya! It's a classic sales tactic. The bond market...
Thu, Dec 29 2022, 12:48 PM
With Friday being a half day ahead of a 3 day weekend, today is essentially the end of the trading year. In fact, one could argue that December 15th ...
Wed, Dec 28 2022, 3:37 PM
Late Day Leakage Keeps Things Gloomy For Bonds
We're witnessing the random walk of the winter holiday tradin...
Wed, Dec 28 2022, 12:57 PM
Recent inflation data and a slightly softer stance from the Fed combined to crush the yield curve (10yr yields almost 90bps lower than 2yr yields in e...
Tue, Dec 27 2022, 5:21 PM
Frustrating Reasons For Weakness Are Still The Best Reasons We Have
Bonds were moderately weaker to start th...
Tue, Dec 27 2022, 9:24 AM
Have you heard the one about "holiday trading mode" in financial markets? It continues to be in full swing for bonds with lower volume, lighter liquid...
Fri, Dec 23 2022, 1:09 PM
Still Not Reading Too Much Into This Week's Weakness
Friday began with bonds reacting negatively to economic...
Fri, Dec 23 2022, 10:12 AM
Every now and then, the market moves decisively in one direction or the other due to economic data, but the movement is the opposite of what most mark...
Thu, Dec 22 2022, 2:51 PM
Small But Surprising Reaction to Data. Cruise Control Remain Intact
This morning's stronger-than-forecast GD...
Thu, Dec 22 2022, 12:46 PM
It's unfortunate that we're now more than 40 years away from Alec Guinness's "these aren't the droids you're looking for" line in Star Wars. It makes...
Wed, Dec 21 2022, 4:32 PM
Sideways to Slightly Weaker After Early Gains
It ended up being an uneventful day for bonds despite a handfu...
Wed, Dec 21 2022, 12:07 PM
Bonds proved they were capable of rallying this week with respectable gains early this morning following two days of relatively sharp losses. Unfortun...
Tue, Dec 20 2022, 3:46 PM
Does Japan's New Rate Policy Change Anything For Us?
Today's dominant market mover occurred in Japan early i...
Tue, Dec 20 2022, 11:30 AM
Haruhiko Kuroda, the head of Japan's central bank (BOJ), surprised the market with an earlier-than-expected shift to the BOJ's policy of yield curve c...
Mon, Dec 19 2022, 4:56 PM
Very Flat Day After Opening Losses
MBS and Treasuries began the day in moderately-to-sharply weaker territor...
Mon, Dec 19 2022, 11:57 AM
The ratio of market movement to justification is off the charts this morning (i.e. lots of movement, but not a lot of apparent justification). This i...
Fri, Dec 16 2022, 5:13 PM
Bonds Recover Somewhat After Weaker Start
Position squaring and ongoing weakness in EU bond markets got US b...
Fri, Dec 16 2022, 11:51 AM
Around Thanksgiving and then again after the December meeting, you'll see us increasingly reference "holiday trading mode." This term is a bit of a c...
Thu, Dec 15 2022, 3:33 PM
Bonds Stay Resilient as Traders Begin Punching Out For The Holidays
After starting flat, bonds were under pr...
Thu, Dec 15 2022, 12:28 PM
Bonds began the day roughly unchanged and then followed European bonds into weaker territory after the European Central Bank (ECB) upped its inflation...
Wed, Dec 14 2022, 5:20 PM
Fed Threads Needle With Unfriendly Dots Balanced by Peaceful Powell
As expected, the market's initial focus ...
Wed, Dec 14 2022, 2:00 PM
Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remain...
Wed, Dec 14 2022, 12:17 PM
It's Fed day and a 0.50% hike is a foregone conclusion. Markets have fully priced that in and multiple Fed speeches--including Powell 2 weeks ago--ha...
Tue, Dec 13 2022, 4:28 PM
CPI Reaction Lives Up To The Hype. Fed on Deck
On most any other day, if MBS are going out the door with a 5...
Tue, Dec 13 2022, 10:01 AM
You can go back and research decades of Consumer Price Index reports to compare the size of the market movement relative to the size of the beat/miss ...
Mon, Dec 12 2022, 3:51 PM
Bonds Give up Gains After Bumpy Auctions
Amid and absence of any relevant economic data, bonds were forced t...
Mon, Dec 12 2022, 12:17 PM
It's been more than a month since the last CPI report sent mortgage rates lower at the fastest single-day pace on record. Since then, apart from one ...
Fri, Dec 9 2022, 5:15 PM
Retreat Into Recent Rate Range Continues
The opening commentary is surprisingly similar to the closing comme...
Fri, Dec 9 2022, 11:29 AM
We came into Friday expecting the Producer Price Index data to carry more market movement potential than normal. Two reasons for this: A) inflation d...
Thu, Dec 8 2022, 3:59 PM
Uneventful Trading Day Despite Moderate Weakness
Today had the feel of a holiday trading day in the bond mar...
Thu, Dec 8 2022, 12:14 PM
As we watched yesterday's rally continue to extend into the afternoon without any compelling motivation, it began to seem slightly overdone--especiall...
Wed, Dec 7 2022, 4:22 PM
Mini Snowball Rally on Data, Technicals, and Lack of Supply
There are several ways to approach today's rally...
Wed, Dec 7 2022, 9:50 AM
We never like to view technical levels or technical analysis as having any reliable predictive value about the future. It's more of a framework that ...
Tue, Dec 6 2022, 4:39 PM
Mystery Rally Gets Bonds Back in The Green
Both Tuesday and Wednesday are effectively free from market-movin...
Tue, Dec 6 2022, 12:23 PM
Today's trading session is effectively data-free in the US with the never-market-moving International Trade report the only data on the calendar. Bon...
Mon, Dec 5 2022, 3:22 PM
Weaker Start on Data and Fed Anxiety
Bonds got off to a weaker start in the new week on a variety of factors...
Mon, Dec 5 2022, 11:21 AM
The importance of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) cannot be overstated for most of 2022. That's doubly true in November and December. The Nov 10th it...
Fri, Dec 2 2022, 4:12 PM
Bonds Ultimately Shrug Off Stronger Jobs Data
Today saw a fairly impressive round trip for rates following t...
Fri, Dec 2 2022, 12:30 PM
Change has been in the air since the November 10th CPI data. That single report did more than any other event to raise hopes for a big picture shift ...
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