Wed, May 25 2022, 10:02 AM
In the run up to the most recent Fed announcement, the 50bp rate hike was a foregone conclusion. There was some uncertainty about how the Fed would a...
Tue, May 24 2022, 4:23 PM
Rate Rally Returns With Help From Housing Data
How about a good, old-fashioned market reaction to weaker eco...
Tue, May 24 2022, 11:31 AM
Another day, another headline with the word "stocks." Yesterday it was a stock market recovery pulling bond yields higher. Today it's renewed weakne...
Mon, May 23 2022, 4:37 PM
Stock Lever Cuts Both Ways as Yields Bounce Higher
While the gains seen in the bond market over the past 2 w...
Mon, May 23 2022, 12:11 PM
By last Friday, not only had the bond market seen a 2-week improvement for the first time all year, but the ground covered during those 2 weeks was bi...
Fri, May 20 2022, 11:44 AM
The entire week has been dominated by a close correlation between stock prices and bonds yields. This has been especially noticeable after 9:30am ET ...
Thu, May 19 2022, 4:48 PM
How Low Can Stocks Go? (Bonds Want to Know)
Bonds improved overnight and again after this morning's Philly ...
Thu, May 19 2022, 9:26 AM
Remember when the Fed began to abruptly revise its policy tightening pace at the start of the year and both stocks and bonds began to sell off? That'...
Wed, May 18 2022, 4:27 PM
What Does Today's Rally Mean For The Bigger Picture?
Bonds began the day in flat to slightly weaker territor...
Wed, May 18 2022, 11:54 AM
One side effect of following the market very closely during times of heightened volatility is that the short term developments on any given day run a ...
Tue, May 17 2022, 3:56 PM
Another Head Fake Comes and Goes With Help From Data and Powell
As of yesterday, bond yields looked like tha...
Tue, May 17 2022, 11:33 AM
Bonds have had a good run recently--perhaps their best when it comes to arguing for a ceiling to cap the brutal rate spike of 2022. The week began wi...
Mon, May 16 2022, 4:01 PM
Bonds Hold Decent Gains to Start New Week
After mixed trading overnight, bonds began the day in the US at re...
Mon, May 16 2022, 12:01 PM
Bonds shook off a bit of weakness in Europe to start the new week in slightly stronger territory. Gains have continued into domestic hours, which bri...
Fri, May 13 2022, 3:47 PM
Weaker Today, But Stronger vs Last Week. Stocks in Control
Blaming stocks for movement in the bond market (a...
Fri, May 13 2022, 11:13 AM
The relationship between stocks and bonds is much more complicated than most people assume. Conventional wisdom holds that stock prices and bond yiel...
Thu, May 12 2022, 4:20 PM
Finally Time to Start Entertaining an Actual Shift?
Bonds have made several attempts to consolidate and boun...
Thu, May 12 2022, 11:22 AM
For the first time in months (and longer than that if we factor out the artificial/temporary boost from the Ukraine flight to safety) bond yields are ...
Wed, May 11 2022, 3:54 PM
Bonds Bounce Back Despite Hotter Inflation Data
Feel free to call it a comeback, but don't ask why it happen...
Wed, May 11 2022, 10:43 AM
Both at the headline and core levels, April's Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in hotter this morning. This was a high-consequence report for bonds, a...
Tue, May 10 2022, 3:57 PM
Another Solid Day, But It's All About Wednesday's CPI
Bonds managed to post a 2nd consecutive day of gains o...
Tue, May 10 2022, 10:00 AM
For the 3rd or 4th time (depending on your standards), yields are attempting to find a ceiling after launching abruptly higher in early March (1.67% t...
Mon, May 9 2022, 3:49 PM
Big Bond Rally to Start The New Week
In spite of potential headwinds in the coming days (CPI data and Treasu...
Mon, May 9 2022, 11:31 AM
Depending on when you looked this morning, MBS prices may have been red or green, and the gap between any two quotes was rather large (a quarter of a ...
Fri, May 6 2022, 4:54 PM
Rates Give Up After Briefly Trying to Hold Yesterday's Ceiling
There really weren't any new reasons for the ...
Fri, May 6 2022, 12:29 PM
The jobs report is traditionally the most important piece of economic data on any given month. It's even had the power to move the bond market as rec...
Thu, May 5 2022, 4:40 PM
Big Sell Off After a Nice Rally. Blame The Fed Either Way?
Today was one of the rare breed where both stock...
Thu, May 5 2022, 1:04 PM
Solid Fed day and solid rally in response yesterday... Now today, it's not just a complete 180°, but a 180° plus more insult to injury as yields surg...
Wed, May 4 2022, 4:30 PM
Fed Finally Sticks to Script. Bonds Like It
Fed days have seen a series of increasingly hawkish adjustments ...
Wed, May 4 2022, 2:01 PM
Indicators Although of overall economic activity edged down in the first quarter, household spending and employment business have fixed ...
Wed, May 4 2022, 10:09 AM
At the risk of repeating too many words from yesterday's recap, we'll leave it at this: the Fed will hike by 50bps today. It won't be a surprise to t...
Tue, May 3 2022, 4:03 PM
Fed Day Preview: What Are They Doing and How Much Will Bonds Care?
Given all the bond market volatility seen...
Tue, May 3 2022, 11:23 AM
10yr yields came into the day looking comfortable in the rejection of the 3% ceiling that was briefly tested yesterday and overnight. That occurred a...
Mon, May 2 2022, 4:06 PM
Rocky Start to Fed's Normalization Revelation Week
The Fed has been in full-fledged policy tightening mode i...
Mon, May 2 2022, 10:05 AM
In addition to bringing the typical big market movers scheduled for the first week of any given month, we'll also get a fairly important Fed announcem...
Fri, Apr 29 2022, 4:46 PM
Insult to Injury But Still Waiting on Next Week's Fed
Mixed messages in the morning's PCE inflation data sen...
Fri, Apr 29 2022, 11:59 AM
This morning's much-anticipated core PCE inflation headline came out at 5.2% year-over-year versus a median forecast and previous reading of 5.3%. Gr...
Thu, Apr 28 2022, 4:22 PM
Nice Intraday Bounce, But No Implication For Bigger Picture
Bonds began the day losing ground following hott...
Thu, Apr 28 2022, 11:40 AM
Yesterday, we surmised that the absence of new rally momentum meant rates weren't yet ready to confirm a major ceiling without digesting a bit more da...
Wed, Apr 27 2022, 3:58 PM
MBS Outperform as Treasuries Hit Several Snags
In the bigger picture, the absence of any new rally momentum ...
Wed, Apr 27 2022, 11:06 AM
If only the bond rally of the past 2 days had begun next Monday... Due to its "one week early" timing, the result has been a technical correction tha...
Tue, Apr 26 2022, 3:54 PM
More Gains, But Harder to Hold After Europe Stopped Trading
Bonds made decent gains overnight as overseas ma...
Tue, Apr 26 2022, 10:44 AM
Here at the end of April, bonds are seeing a similar rally to the one seen at the end of March. At least that's true in terms of the number of days o...
Mon, Apr 25 2022, 4:11 PM
New Bounce, But Same Question
Rates rallied briskly today as investors focused on China's covid lockdowns, o...
Mon, Apr 25 2022, 9:42 AM
Global equities indices fell sharply at various opening bells (and the closing bell too, as far as Asia was concerned). This was less of a concern fo...
Fri, Apr 22 2022, 3:26 PM
Abnormally Uneventful Friday For Bonds
Whether we're talking about actual Fridays or Thursdays that fall bef...
Thu, Apr 21 2022, 3:38 PM
Daly Upstages Powell in Today's Fed Drama
With both Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Lagarde scheduled to ...
Thu, Apr 21 2022, 11:35 AM
The centerpiece of today's event calendar is a panel discussion on the global economy hosted by the IMF. Both Powell and ECB President Lagarde are on...
Wed, Apr 20 2022, 4:01 PM
Strong Auction Lost in Shuffle as Bonds Enjoy an Easy Win
Sometimes during massive selling sprees, the tradi...
Wed, Apr 20 2022, 11:27 AM
We could certainly discuss the fact that bonds are improving so far today amid a strong curve flattening trade, but recent experience suggests we wait...
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