Tue, Aug 19 2025, 4:21 PM
Slow, Steady, Modest Improvement
Bonds are in the throes of the summertime "blahs." In other words, exciteme...
Tue, Aug 19 2025, 12:08 PM
If yesterday was marked by incidental weakness, today is shaping up to be the opposite. In fact, yields and MBS prices are right in line with Friday'...
Mon, Aug 18 2025, 3:56 PM
Incidental Weakness or a New Trend?
The most interesting thing that happened in the bond market today involv...
Mon, Aug 18 2025, 10:09 AM
Summertime trading conditions tend to amplify trading motivations that might otherwise get lost in the shuffle. This morning, it's been the opening be...
Fri, Aug 15 2025, 3:30 PM
Weaker Conclusion But No Major Big Picture Implications
Despite much stronger revisions and a modestly stron...
Fri, Aug 15 2025, 10:03 AM
Friday morning's highlight is the Retail Sales report which came in at a respectable 0.5 vs 0.5 headline. Core retail sales (excluding autos/gas/build...
Thu, Aug 14 2025, 2:27 PM
Bonds Hold The Range Despite More Data-Driven Volatility
At 0.9, not only did today's PPI crush the 0.2 fore...
Thu, Aug 14 2025, 10:58 AM
There's no question that today's Producer Price Index came in surprisingly hot. Both the headline and core numbers were 0.9% vs forecasts of 0.2%. Th...
Wed, Aug 13 2025, 4:19 PM
Data-Free Rally Day
Wednesday represented this week's lull in terms of scheduled market movers on the calend...
Wed, Aug 13 2025, 9:40 AM
Bonds rallied overnight, largely in concert with lower EU yields. Stable inflation in Germany and lower oil prices helped. But there was also a tailwi...
Tue, Aug 12 2025, 4:33 PM
Bonds Eventually Pass on Decisive Reaction to Tuesday's Data
Right at the 8:30am release time, bonds rallied...
Tue, Aug 12 2025, 9:20 AM
There's something for everyone in this morning's CPI data. The monthly headline was on target at 0.2 vs 0.2. Same story for the core at 0.3 vs 0.3. Bo...
Mon, Aug 11 2025, 3:35 PM
Bonds Mostly Steady Ahead of CPI
Treasuries outperformed MBS just slightly today, but both were close enough...
Mon, Aug 11 2025, 11:34 AM
July represents the core of the summertime lull in financial markets. June and August are typically part of the lull unless econ data is suggesting a...
Fri, Aug 8 2025, 3:25 PM
Focus Shifts to Next Week's High Stakes CPI
Bonds lost ground at the fastest pace of the week on Friday, but...
Fri, Aug 8 2025, 11:00 AM
Any week in early August (before anyone is back to school yet) classifies a "dog days of summer" type of week for the bond market. Movement is more ra...
Thu, Aug 7 2025, 4:19 PM
Fairly Resilient Despite Bumpy Auction
The relevant morning econ data was limited to Jobless Claims. While t...
Thu, Aug 7 2025, 9:49 AM
The week's last hope for any signs of life from economic data has come and gone with this morning's Jobless Claims. To be fair, there was never reall...
Wed, Aug 6 2025, 4:26 PM
More Ground-Holding Despite Weird Intraday Spike
This morning's commentary led with our desire to avoid jinx...
Wed, Aug 6 2025, 11:26 AM
We don't want to jinx it, but this is turning out to be an uncommonly calm week of trading compared to other post-jobs-report trading weeks. So far, ...
Tue, Aug 5 2025, 4:37 PM
Bonds Hold Steady After Modest Data-Driven Rally
Today's (and to be fair, this week's) only major econ data-...
Tue, Aug 5 2025, 10:43 AM
The ISM Services Index is/was easily this week's biggest ticket in terms of scheduled economic data. It was mostly OK for bonds with the growth-relate...
Mon, Aug 4 2025, 4:47 PM
Calmly Closing at Best Levels Since April
As far as post-NFP Mondays go, this was a calm one. Bonds never s...
Mon, Aug 4 2025, 11:26 AM
The new week is less interesting than the previous week in terms of scheduled events with the only top tier data being Tuesday's ISM Non Manufacturing...
Fri, Aug 1 2025, 5:07 PM
Bond Traders Quickly Revise Their Bullishness
"Revision" is the word of the day as every armchair economist ...
Fri, Aug 1 2025, 11:59 AM
Non-farm payrolls came in at 73k vs 110k, which is a pretty good thing for the bond market in and of itself. But the bigger story is in the net revis...
Thu, Jul 31 2025, 4:47 PM
Month-End Volatility Erodes Modest Gains
Bonds were slightly stronger in the overnight session and this morn...
Thu, Jul 31 2025, 3:11 PM
Below is a table that consolidates the results of various econ reports as well as NFP precedents that speak to the odds of NFP moving higher or lower ...
Thu, Jul 31 2025, 10:33 AM
While jobless claims and the Employment Cost Index can be market movers, today's biggest ticket in the 8:30am slot was the monthly PCE Price Index for...
Wed, Jul 30 2025, 4:16 PM
Markets Expected More Dovishness From Powell
AM data was a mixed bag that left bonds slightly weaker on the ...
Wed, Jul 30 2025, 2:00 PM
Although swings in net exports have affected continue to affect the data, recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity has continu...
Wed, Jul 30 2025, 10:06 AM
There were two key reports at the start of trading today. The 815am ADP data was fairly forgettable, coming in at 104k vs 75k f'cast, and -23k previo...
Tue, Jul 29 2025, 4:33 PM
Bonds Firing on All Cylinders After Data and Treasury Supply
The bond market was in flow state on Tuesday wi...
Tue, Jul 29 2025, 10:35 AM
There's no mistaking the fact that bonds are trading in a boring, narrowing, sideways range in the bigger picture, nor could anyone claim that today's...
Mon, Jul 28 2025, 4:15 PM
A "No Reaction" Sort of Day
Granted, there were no big ticket economic reports on tap for Monday, but there ...
Mon, Jul 28 2025, 10:50 AM
Given that a bilateral trade deal between the U.S. and EU was announced over the weekend, markets haven't moved much at all in response. 10yr yields w...
Fri, Jul 25 2025, 4:48 PM
Bonds Brace For Stormier Weather After This Week's Smooth Sailing
Despite a few inconsequential ups and down...
Fri, Jul 25 2025, 12:04 PM
Bonds were initially stronger, then weaker in the overnight session. There was a bit of additional selling in the first hour, but none of it correspo...
Thu, Jul 24 2025, 5:19 PM
Reasonably Resilient After Data-Driven Selling
This morning's Jobless Claims report was the week's most rele...
Thu, Jul 24 2025, 8:47 AM
Jobless claims data continues to defy a majority of other labor market metrics in showing a remarkable lack of any signs of softening. In fact, the 4...
Wed, Jul 23 2025, 4:55 PM
Broadly Calm Despite Modest Pull-Back
If anything about the present week required investigation and explanat...
Wed, Jul 23 2025, 10:43 AM
The analytical theme this week has been to observe the market movement and then go scrambling for justification. Such is the nature of a week without...
Tue, Jul 22 2025, 4:16 PM
Solid AM Gains Stick Around All Day
Bonds improved in the morning following comments from Bessent that gave ...
Tue, Jul 22 2025, 11:23 AM
While stock market volatility may be a drop in the bucket in the bigger picture, earnings season tends to increase volume and liquidity. This can spi...
Mon, Jul 21 2025, 4:26 PM
Uneventful Resilience
Monday's theme for the bond market was one of moderate resilience--at least for the lo...
Mon, Jul 21 2025, 11:46 AM
It seems like only 2 weeks ago (because it was) that we encountered an entire week without any major events on the econ calendar. The present week is ...
Fri, Jul 18 2025, 5:28 PM
Needle Threaded. Now What?
As always, big-ticket data and/or news headlines have potential energy in terms...
Fri, Jul 18 2025, 12:02 PM
At the end of a week with a few big ticket economic reports and unexpected headline-induced volatility, who wouldn't like a break? Friday's calendar ...
Thu, Jul 17 2025, 3:55 PM
Bonds Unfazed by Econ Data
If you had to guess at the bond market's response this morning based solely on th...
Thu, Jul 17 2025, 10:52 AM
There were multiple economic reports on tap this morning (4 of them in the 8:30am slot), but the headliner on a Retail Sales day is almost always goin...
MBS Market Alerts
