Thu, Aug 13 2026, 5:10 PM
Solid Data-Driven Gains
Thursday was a fairly straightforward session for bonds. Yields fell modestly overni...
Thu, Aug 13 2026, 9:51 AM
If nothing else, this morning offers confirmation of just how nervous the market is about inflation. The producer price index barely beat its forecast...
Wed, Aug 12 2026, 5:09 PM
Bonds End Flat After Front-Running The Decent Data
We absolutely hate the term "front-running" because it ca...
Wed, Aug 12 2026, 9:44 AM
It would have been hard for CPI to be any more boring. All key metrics came in perfectly in line with forecasts. Supercore (core minus housing), was 0...
Tue, Aug 11 2026, 4:56 PM
Bonds Looking Somewhat Optimistic Ahead of CPI
Bonds improved modestly on Tuesday which is actually a somewh...
Tue, Aug 11 2026, 10:36 AM
Bonds are rallying, and we have no objection to that. Reasons are simple and familiar enough that there's no sense in over-analyzing them. Newswires h...
Mon, Aug 10 2026, 4:00 PM
Issuance and Oil Strike Back
Oil prices continue to ebb and flow in concert with the Iran war news cycle. Th...
Mon, Aug 10 2026, 10:32 AM
Recent experience suggests the safest assumption about oil prices and bond yields is that they will pop and drop with reasonable regularity. In other ...
Fri, Aug 7 2026, 5:21 PM
Not Quite The Rally You'd Expect, But a Rally Nonetheless
Today's vitals might be a bit confusing at first g...
Fri, Aug 7 2026, 9:05 AM
Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) FELL 23k versus an 80k forecast. Last month was revised down as well. From a traditional market-watching perspective, this is ...
Thu, Aug 6 2026, 3:05 PM
Almost Like Clockwork
Almost like clockwork, after several days spent mostly rallying on a headline-driven d...
Thu, Aug 6 2026, 11:04 AM
It's as good of a day as any to revisit our primer on corporate debt issuance given that it's having an impact on bonds today. Alphabet announced a $...
Wed, Aug 5 2026, 3:28 PM
Bonds Shake Off Mid-Day Weakness to Hold Mostly Steady
Bonds took a break from their recent trend of moderat...
Wed, Aug 5 2026, 8:55 AM
With the potential for a Hormuz deal floated earlier in the week, a more substantive announcement remains the biggest opportunity for the bond market ...
Tue, Aug 4 2026, 3:29 PM
Solid Showing For Logical Reasons
Money flooded back into both sides of the market in a major way (albeit mo...
Tue, Aug 4 2026, 9:39 AM
This morning is offering another installment of hope for some form of progress in Iran. In today's case, it was Bessent floating the notion of possibl...
Mon, Aug 3 2026, 3:52 PM
Sideways and Stronger, But Risks Remain
Monday was "nice." Bonds rallied more than a little bit and held tho...
Mon, Aug 3 2026, 10:25 AM
Bonds opened the trading session in much stronger territory, following the drop in oil prices associated with another round of de-escalation hopes in ...
Fri, Jul 31 2026, 4:08 PM
Esoteric Forex Drama Blasts Bonds, Maybe
Friday was very much NOT on the beaten path of typical bond market ...
Fri, Jul 31 2026, 9:09 AM
Japan's Ministry of Finance (MOF) and central bank (BOJ) are a bit more closely linked than Treasury and the Fed. For example, the MOF can instruct th...
Thu, Jul 30 2026, 4:14 PM
Bullets Dodged
We've seen our fair share of bonds punishing the market on occasions where bond traders were ...
Thu, Jul 30 2026, 9:40 AM
This morning could have been much worse. The bond market could have continued spiraling on fear that it is now responsible for conducting monetary pol...
Wed, Jul 29 2026, 5:47 PM
What's Up With Today's Paradoxical Fed Reaction?
Tough day for the casual observer to try to make sense of w...
Wed, Jul 29 2026, 2:00 PM
The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 9 – 0 3 vote: The Committee decided to maintain the ta...
Wed, Jul 29 2026, 9:49 AM
The big news over the weekend was that the U.S. and Iran paused hostilities--something that led to 2 solid days of gains in the bond market. But in th...
Tue, Jul 28 2026, 4:04 PM
Giving Peace (And Bonds?) a Chance
Granted, it may be far less promising than some of the more conclusive he...
Tue, Jul 28 2026, 9:28 AM
Once again, bond yields dropped in the overnight session in concert with lower oil prices. Today's iteration is less swift than yesterday's, but after...
Mon, Jul 27 2026, 4:15 PM
Compared to Oil, Yields Not Quite as Willing to Drop
While the moment-to-moment correlation between bond yie...
Mon, Jul 27 2026, 8:51 AM
It's a pretty simple morning for the bond market (and many other markets). While there's no formal ceasefire, both the U.S. and Iran have indicated a ...
Fri, Jul 24 2026, 3:38 PM
How Technical Do You Want to Be?
There are always multiple technical lenses through which to view market mov...
Fri, Jul 24 2026, 9:56 AM
It's a straightforward morning in the bond market. We're not seeing any of the sorts of "unseen hand" trading that accounted for the timing of yesterd...
Thu, Jul 23 2026, 4:55 PM
Bonds Not Keen To Catch Falling Knives
Oil lurched higher again overnight which kept generalized pressure on...
Thu, Jul 23 2026, 9:23 AM
Welcome to post-Iran-War 2026. The only real relief for bonds since then was seen in June when there was hope that the war was over or at least windin...
Wed, Jul 22 2026, 4:52 PM
Just Another Reasonably Bad Day For Bonds
Bonds had a bad day for the 3rd time this week. The weakness was r...
Wed, Jul 22 2026, 10:18 AM
For those not interested in overcomplicating things, it's fair enough to simply observe the resurgence of hostilities in the Iran war prompting a resu...
Tue, Jul 21 2026, 5:06 PM
Headwinds, Cont'd
"Headwinds, Cont'd" could be apply to the entirety of 2022-2026 or just March-July of 2026...
Tue, Jul 21 2026, 9:26 AM
While last week's CPI and PPI reports were unabashedly great news, the bond market spent Friday and yesterday gradually unwinding most of the resultin...
Mon, Jul 20 2026, 3:53 PM
New Week. Same Old Story
While we certainly CAN put short term market movement under a microscope and entert...
Mon, Jul 20 2026, 10:12 AM
You've seen the "good vibes only" t-shirt perhaps? Bond traders left theirs at home this morning. That's unfortunate as there isn't much beyond vibes ...
Fri, Jul 17 2026, 4:35 PM
Roughly Unchanged After Gradual Weakness
Bonds ended the day roughly unchanged despite this morning's strong...
Fri, Jul 17 2026, 9:35 AM
In a month where bonds have made a visible reconnection with fuel prices thanks to the Iran war resurgence, there have been several notable departures...
Thu, Jul 16 2026, 4:46 PM
Ultimately Uneventful Despite Modest Weakness
Bonds lost ground modestly today with the ultimate damage bein...
Thu, Jul 16 2026, 11:26 AM
The term "crack spread" is quickly becoming mainstream--especially over the past few weeks. It's more of a concept than a specific metric, but it most...
Wed, Jul 15 2026, 3:43 PM
Wednesday's Gains Had More Staying Power Than Tuesday's
Both Tuesday's CPI and Wednesday's PPI came in much ...
Wed, Jul 15 2026, 9:20 AM
The Producer Price Index (PPI) is not normally a huge market mover, but it has its moments of moderate impact. Today is such a moment as PPI did its b...
Tue, Jul 14 2026, 4:42 PM
Why Were 10yr Yields Only a Few bps Lower Today?
If you missed this morning's commentary, the gist is that i...
Tue, Jul 14 2026, 8:56 AM
The Consumer Price Index came in FAR below expectations with a core reading of 0.0 vs 0.2 forecasts. In unrounded terms, it was -0.17%. Headline CPI w...
Mon, Jul 13 2026, 9:21 AM
Bonds are weaker to start the new week and the catalyst is simple. The U.S. ramped up air strikes in Iran, both in terms of number and distance inland...
Fri, Jul 10 2026, 3:50 PM
Some Bond-Specific Weakness in The Afternoon
Oil and Treasury yields were almost perfectly correlated for al...
Fri, Jul 10 2026, 10:05 AM
The entire week has been a study in the rekindled love affair between bond yields and oil prices. The latter is fairly flat versus yesterday's latest ...
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