Tue, Oct 27 2026, 4:40 PM
Boring, Sideways Day. Does Wednesday's Fed Announcement Even Matter?
Neocloud concerns continued to experien...
Tue, Oct 27 2026, 10:07 AM
"Neocloud" has entered the commentary. This is shorthand for the market segment in which Coreweave operates. Neocloud companies have been the epicente...
Mon, Oct 26 2026, 4:15 PM
Bonds Hold Ground Despite Some Healing in Tech
Monday was exceptionally uneventful for the bond market--as i...
Mon, Oct 26 2026, 9:46 AM
Bonds are technically just a hair stronger this morning, but in the slightly bigger picture, nothing has happened yet this week (not that we'd expect ...
Fri, Oct 23 2026, 3:53 PM
Slightly Weaker, But Much Stronger on The Week
Friday was calm and sideways in the bigger picture. Sure, a 4...
Fri, Oct 23 2026, 9:16 AM
Little has changed between yesterday's close and this morning's early trading. 10yr yields are still several bps under 5%. MBS are still effectively a...
Thu, Oct 22 2026, 4:48 PM
Tech Tanks and Bonds Pick Up The Slack
What began with focus on funding concerns for Coreweave (and, to a le...
Thu, Oct 22 2026, 9:18 AM
Oil prices are up. Bond yields are down sharply. If this was early September, that wouldn't make sense. Bonds decoupled from the oil correlation on Fe...
Wed, Oct 21 2026, 4:51 PM
Ultimately Flat After Options-Driven Volatility
Treasuries continued in the same sideways holding pattern se...
Wed, Oct 21 2026, 10:21 AM
We find ourselves in a bit of a lull in the bond market this week, and we don't object! Yields aren't screaming back up toward recent highs. Nor are t...
Tue, Oct 20 2026, 4:37 PM
Tech Concerns Keeping Bonds in The Game
There was some oil price volatility today that looked like it might ...
Tue, Oct 20 2026, 9:39 AM
The bond market continues to decide who it wants to be in Q4, 2026--the harbinger of inflation concerns, debt issuance and economic growth or a safe h...
Mon, Oct 19 2026, 4:41 PM
What's Up With Monday's Weakness?
Bonds were moderately weaker on Monday and not in a way that was obviously...
Mon, Oct 19 2026, 9:57 AM
Last week's most notable development was a flight to safety in the bond market precipitated by concerns about a shift in tech sector sentiment. The sh...
Fri, Oct 16 2026, 3:46 PM
Could Have Been Better. Could Have Been Worse
If the bond market was a Mario Bro, it found a gold star at so...
Fri, Oct 16 2026, 10:06 AM
The past two days saw a unique confluence of factors that led to a precipitous, unexpected, and fairly large rally in the bond market. The easiest sca...
Thu, Oct 15 2026, 4:07 PM
Exciting Times, But Don't Get Too Excited
There's no question that the past 5 days have been the best 5 days...
Thu, Oct 15 2026, 9:42 AM
Core PPI was up 0.7 vs 0.3 forecast this morning. That's something that would normally send yields much higher. But everything is different this morni...
Wed, Oct 14 2026, 9:48 AM
Unrounded core CPI came in at 0.335, which nearly rounds to 0.4% versus an expectations of 0.2%. This is a big surprise when it comes to inflation da...
Tue, Oct 13 2026, 2:53 PM
Light Volatility and Modest Gains Ahead of CPI
Bonds were modestly stronger in the overnight session in a mo...
Tue, Oct 13 2026, 9:57 AM
Tuesday morning joins a fairly long list of trading days where overnight bond market movement cannot be cleanly connected to news headlines or econ da...
Fri, Oct 9 2026, 4:38 PM
Another Nice Round Trip For Bonds--Especially MBS
Nothing new or interesting happened today in terms of unde...
Fri, Oct 9 2026, 9:50 AM
After yesterday's nice comeback, here's how we're thinking about today. Fridays before 3-day weekends:
frequently see a move to the sidelines amon...
Thu, Oct 8 2026, 4:16 PM
Yields "Plummet" to Best Level In...
4 trading days... All the way back on October 2nd (last Friday), intra...
Thu, Oct 8 2026, 9:36 AM
Bonds were initially moderately weaker this morning morning in a move that followed oil prices and hawkish Fed comments. Chris Waller said more hikes ...
Wed, Oct 7 2026, 4:56 PM
Full Recovery!
The patient looked critical this morning with 10yr yields pushing up to new long-term highs j...
Wed, Oct 7 2026, 10:07 AM
If there's been a safe bet to make on isolated rally days over the past 2 months, it's that they'll be soon followed by a return to the prevailing tre...
Tue, Oct 6 2026, 4:02 PM
Today Was "Nice" For Bonds
Bonds bucked their prevailing trend and managed to move slightly lower in yield t...
Tue, Oct 6 2026, 10:00 AM
If rate movement were a car, it's been driving pretty recklessly recently, and definitely not keeping good pace with other motorists. But every now an...
Mon, Oct 5 2026, 4:41 PM
What Will it Take For Bonds to Recover?
Another day, another sell-off without any satisfying explanations. T...
Mon, Oct 5 2026, 10:46 AM
Another week begins with the frustrating reality of the bond market selling just because there's no reason to buy. To be fair, 2yr yields are unchange...
Fri, Oct 2 2026, 4:42 PM
Why Bonds Sold Off Despite Weaker Jobs Report
First off, read the AM commentary if you haven't already. This...
Fri, Oct 2 2026, 9:36 AM
MBS are up more than 3/8ths and the 10yr is down almost 6bps at the lowest levels in a week after the job count came in at 29k vs 90k f'cast. That's t...
Thu, Oct 1 2026, 4:46 PM
Thursday's Rally Sets Up For a Very Interesting Friday
Of course we had to have a big, interesting move in t...
Thu, Oct 1 2026, 10:35 AM
Sometimes we see a distinct shift in momentum on the first day of a new month. This is not one of those times. October 1st picks up where September 30...
Wed, Sep 30 2026, 5:01 PM
Just Another Bad Day For Bonds Without New Justification
10yr yields hit another long-term high today, break...
Wed, Sep 30 2026, 9:34 AM
Core PCE came in at 0.2 vs a 0.3 forecast, and the bond market rallied a bit in response. That said, the unrounded number was .247, which about as hig...
Tue, Sep 29 2026, 4:56 PM
Big Intraday Round Trip For Bonds; Williams Helped
Bonds spent the first half of the day pressing into even ...
Tue, Sep 29 2026, 9:37 AM
Bonds were initially modestly stronger overnight, but mostly sideways in the bigger picture. Right at the 8:20am CME open, bond sellers were clearly w...
Mon, Sep 28 2026, 5:18 PM
Bond-Specific Weakness
Over the past 6 months, as bonds continued to sell off, there was frequently some sol...
Mon, Sep 28 2026, 10:10 AM
Bonds lost ground overnight with traders reacting to Trump's rejection of Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This isn't the first time th...
Fri, Sep 25 2026, 5:19 PM
Respectable Recovery. Is It a Trap?
First thing's first: the parabolic flourish of bond selling of the past ...
Fri, Sep 25 2026, 11:00 AM
10yr yields began the morning in slightly stronger territory, generally following a modest decline in oil prices overnight. That trend actually ran it...
Thu, Sep 24 2026, 5:30 PM
Brutal Day And For The Scariest Reasons
Despite a slightly stronger start and initial promise of resilience ...
Thu, Sep 24 2026, 9:34 AM
Let's not get too excited. After all, today's yields are the second highest in 19 years, but still... this morning's price action is better than a sha...
Wed, Sep 23 2026, 4:33 PM
Why Bonds Sold Off So Severely Today
The only number higher than the amount of bonds sold today is the numbe...
Wed, Sep 23 2026, 10:27 AM
Bonds lost ground overnight with rising oil prices correlating very well with the higher yields. The selling was minimal and yields remained range bou...
Tue, Sep 22 2026, 4:38 PM
Bonds Bounce Back After Mid-Day Stumble
Bonds began the day in stronger territory following overnight report...
Tue, Sep 22 2026, 9:12 AM
Bonds began the overnight session in weaker territory and were mostly sideways until roughly 4:30am. At that time, newswires hit regarding an Iranian ...
Mon, Sep 21 2026, 3:59 PM
Sideways and Slightly Stronger
It was a rather uneventful day with bonds holding sideways in a relatively na...
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