Fri, Aug 28 2026, 5:22 PM
Hawkish Read on Warsh Prompts Heavy Selling
Jackson Hole speeches are hit and miss when it comes to bond mar...
Fri, Aug 28 2026, 9:43 AM
In an attempt to not force another "Warsh" or "Jackson Hole" headline (because it's a coin flip as to whether it will matter), the calendar offers up ...
Thu, Aug 27 2026, 4:25 PM
Fairly Calm Despite Some Fuel Price Pressure; Warsh on Deck
To reiterate a sentiment from this morning, ther...
Thu, Aug 27 2026, 10:16 AM
While it may end up being a complete non-event, the bond market is counting the hours until Friday's Warsh appearance at Jackson Hole. There's nothing...
Wed, Aug 26 2026, 4:23 PM
Some Pros and Cons in Today's Weakness
Bonds lost ground today, but it wasn't necessarily an unequivocally b...
Wed, Aug 26 2026, 8:47 AM
To be fair, not all of the PCE data was higher than expected, but none of the top line numbers were lower than expected. Core PCE was on target (notab...
Tue, Aug 25 2026, 4:33 PM
Bonds Rally on Peace Deal Hopes
The day ended as it began: with bond yields and oil prices dropping in uniso...
Tue, Aug 25 2026, 10:06 AM
No point in wasting time/words on analysis when cause and effect remains so simple. After news regarding potential progress is peace negotiations, an ...
Mon, Aug 24 2026, 4:56 PM
Tune Out The Noise (Part 2)
Last week, when Treasury announced higher per-operation limits for the buyback p...
Mon, Aug 24 2026, 11:13 AM
Once again, Treasury is out with news about bond buying plans with two officials saying the Treasury General Account (TGA) could be used to fund long-...
Fri, Aug 21 2026, 3:36 PM
Incidental Weakness. Bigger Considerations on The Horizon
Without any data or compelling market movers, bond...
Fri, Aug 21 2026, 9:29 AM
Bonds were a hair stronger overnight and are now a hair weaker at 9:15am ET. They may flip back and forth a few more times before the close. Ultimatel...
Thu, Aug 20 2026, 5:08 PM
Tune Out The Noise
Yesterday's Treasury buyback announcement and today's comments from Bessent make for good...
Thu, Aug 20 2026, 9:34 AM
The correlation between bonds and fuel prices was already creeping back into the picture yesterday. After the Treasury buyback announcement got all of...
Wed, Aug 19 2026, 4:18 PM
AM Rally Ultimately Sticks With Help From Oil
To be clear, most of today's rally is attributable to the news...
Wed, Aug 19 2026, 10:21 AM
At 8:30am, Treasury announced it would double the size of the existing buyback program from $2 to $4 billion for 10-30yr maturities. This sounds like ...
Tue, Aug 18 2026, 4:25 PM
Boring Day But At Least Bonds Turned Green
Tuesday offered remarkably of interest or consequence for the bon...
Tue, Aug 18 2026, 10:26 AM
Big picture momentum has been calmly but clearly skewed toward higher yields for almost 10 months. There have been a few attempts to bounce at technic...
Mon, Aug 17 2026, 3:00 PM
War Headlines Pushing Oil and Yields Higher
Some summertime Mondays are slow and uneventful. Some see brisk ...
Mon, Aug 17 2026, 9:43 AM
It's just another day in post-Iran-war 2026. As such, bonds are taking cues from fuel price volatility which is in turn taking cues from the latest wa...
Fri, Aug 14 2026, 10:01 AM
Based on a few research papers that have attempted to quantify the impact of various economic reports as well as the general consensus among economic ...
Thu, Aug 13 2026, 5:10 PM
Solid Data-Driven Gains
Thursday was a fairly straightforward session for bonds. Yields fell modestly overni...
Thu, Aug 13 2026, 9:51 AM
If nothing else, this morning offers confirmation of just how nervous the market is about inflation. The producer price index barely beat its forecast...
Wed, Aug 12 2026, 5:09 PM
Bonds End Flat After Front-Running The Decent Data
We absolutely hate the term "front-running" because it ca...
Wed, Aug 12 2026, 9:44 AM
It would have been hard for CPI to be any more boring. All key metrics came in perfectly in line with forecasts. Supercore (core minus housing), was 0...
Tue, Aug 11 2026, 4:56 PM
Bonds Looking Somewhat Optimistic Ahead of CPI
Bonds improved modestly on Tuesday which is actually a somewh...
Tue, Aug 11 2026, 10:36 AM
Bonds are rallying, and we have no objection to that. Reasons are simple and familiar enough that there's no sense in over-analyzing them. Newswires h...
Mon, Aug 10 2026, 4:00 PM
Issuance and Oil Strike Back
Oil prices continue to ebb and flow in concert with the Iran war news cycle. Th...
Mon, Aug 10 2026, 10:32 AM
Recent experience suggests the safest assumption about oil prices and bond yields is that they will pop and drop with reasonable regularity. In other ...
Fri, Aug 7 2026, 5:21 PM
Not Quite The Rally You'd Expect, But a Rally Nonetheless
Today's vitals might be a bit confusing at first g...
Fri, Aug 7 2026, 9:05 AM
Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) FELL 23k versus an 80k forecast. Last month was revised down as well. From a traditional market-watching perspective, this is ...
Thu, Aug 6 2026, 3:05 PM
Almost Like Clockwork
Almost like clockwork, after several days spent mostly rallying on a headline-driven d...
Thu, Aug 6 2026, 11:04 AM
It's as good of a day as any to revisit our primer on corporate debt issuance given that it's having an impact on bonds today. Alphabet announced a $...
Wed, Aug 5 2026, 3:28 PM
Bonds Shake Off Mid-Day Weakness to Hold Mostly Steady
Bonds took a break from their recent trend of moderat...
Wed, Aug 5 2026, 8:55 AM
With the potential for a Hormuz deal floated earlier in the week, a more substantive announcement remains the biggest opportunity for the bond market ...
Tue, Aug 4 2026, 3:29 PM
Solid Showing For Logical Reasons
Money flooded back into both sides of the market in a major way (albeit mo...
Tue, Aug 4 2026, 9:39 AM
This morning is offering another installment of hope for some form of progress in Iran. In today's case, it was Bessent floating the notion of possibl...
Mon, Aug 3 2026, 3:52 PM
Sideways and Stronger, But Risks Remain
Monday was "nice." Bonds rallied more than a little bit and held tho...
Mon, Aug 3 2026, 10:25 AM
Bonds opened the trading session in much stronger territory, following the drop in oil prices associated with another round of de-escalation hopes in ...
Fri, Jul 31 2026, 4:08 PM
Esoteric Forex Drama Blasts Bonds, Maybe
Friday was very much NOT on the beaten path of typical bond market ...
Fri, Jul 31 2026, 9:09 AM
Japan's Ministry of Finance (MOF) and central bank (BOJ) are a bit more closely linked than Treasury and the Fed. For example, the MOF can instruct th...
Thu, Jul 30 2026, 4:14 PM
Bullets Dodged
We've seen our fair share of bonds punishing the market on occasions where bond traders were ...
Thu, Jul 30 2026, 9:40 AM
This morning could have been much worse. The bond market could have continued spiraling on fear that it is now responsible for conducting monetary pol...
Wed, Jul 29 2026, 5:47 PM
What's Up With Today's Paradoxical Fed Reaction?
Tough day for the casual observer to try to make sense of w...
Wed, Jul 29 2026, 2:00 PM
The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 9 – 0 3 vote: The Committee decided to maintain the ta...
Wed, Jul 29 2026, 9:49 AM
The big news over the weekend was that the U.S. and Iran paused hostilities--something that led to 2 solid days of gains in the bond market. But in th...
Tue, Jul 28 2026, 4:04 PM
Giving Peace (And Bonds?) a Chance
Granted, it may be far less promising than some of the more conclusive he...
Tue, Jul 28 2026, 9:28 AM
Once again, bond yields dropped in the overnight session in concert with lower oil prices. Today's iteration is less swift than yesterday's, but after...
Mon, Jul 27 2026, 4:15 PM
Compared to Oil, Yields Not Quite as Willing to Drop
While the moment-to-moment correlation between bond yie...
Mon, Jul 27 2026, 8:51 AM
It's a pretty simple morning for the bond market (and many other markets). While there's no formal ceasefire, both the U.S. and Iran have indicated a ...
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