Today's most relevant econ data--S&P Global Services PMI--came in at 55.1 versus a 51.5 forecast.  In a world where the bond market is generally afraid to see ongoing signs of economic resilience, that should not be good for today's rate outlook.  And while rates are indeed higher, the data didn't really add to the overnight weakness.  In fact, heading into the PM hours, MBS and Treasuries are at the best levels of the day.

Data isn't the only game in town when it comes to market motivations--at least not on a day where the most important data is S&P PMIs.  We'd also hesitate to give too much credit to the debt ceiling debate as anything other than a short-term consideration.  That said, we have seen a few examples of a 20230523 open.png