Logical NFP Reaction Leaves Range Intact. Bring on CPI

The jobs report has come and gone without offering anything too terribly interesting for the state of the labor market or the prevailing trading range.  In fact, the NFP reaction actually reinforced the trading range by pushing yields squarely above 3.40%.  With that, attention turns toward next week's CPI data to help shed light on the most likely direction of the eventual range breakout.  That waiting game occurs against the backdrop of ongoing potential bank drama, which proved itself to be just as much of a market mover as any of the data this week.

Econ Data / Events
    • Nonfarm Payrolls
      • 253k vs 180k f'cast, 236k prev
      • last month revised down to 165k
    • Unemployment Rate
      • 3.4 vs 3.6 f'cast, 3.5 prev
    • Earnings
      • 0.5 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.3 prev
Market Movement Recap
08:40 AM

Modestly weaker overnight with additional selling after NFP.  10yr up 8.1bps at 3.458 and MBS down 10 ticks (.31).

12:35 PM

Slightly weaker for MBS heading into the noon hour, but generally flat with 5.0 coupons down 11 ticks (.34).  10yr up 7.5bps at 3.454.

02:59 PM

decent bounce back in MBS, now down only a quarter point and trading flat.  10yr yields sideways in the same range, up 6.9bps at 3.446.

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