Nice Rally With Buyers Back in The Office

Any time bonds make a big (but not necessarily completely justified) move in the run up to a 3.5-day weekend, we're inclined to suspect a certain degree of position squaring.  In other words, traders who had been betting on an intact trading range sold bonds and pushed rates higher.  While that may not be the only way to explain the losses seen late last week, the return of those buyers can help explain a bit of Tuesday's bounce back.  Other factors included European bond market strength and more debt ceiling delays.

Econ Data / Events
    • Month over month home prices
      • Case Shiller 0.5 vs 0.0 f'cast, 0.3 prev
      • FHFA 0.6 vs 0.2 f'cast, 0.5 prev
    • Year over year home prices
      • Case Shiller -1.1 vs -1.7 f'cast
      • FHFA 3.6 vs 4.0 prev
    • Consumer Confidence
      • 102.9 vs 99.0 f'cast, 104.2 prev
Market Movement Recap
09:50 AM

moderately stronger overnight despite some recent pullback.  MBS up 10 ticks (.31).  10yr yield down 2.7 bps at 3.746.

12:45 PM

Additional gains despite stronger consumer sentiment.  10yr down 6.5 bps at 3.708.  MBS up 10 ticks (.31) in 5.5 coupons and nearly half a point in 5.0 coupons.

02:57 PM

MBS doing more to join in the rally now.  5.0 coupons up 5/8ths.  5.5 coupons up almost half a point.

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