Hurry Up And Wait

The bond market is increasingly resigned to the fairly boring task of waiting to find out whether bulls or bears will be victorious in the battle over the nest big dose of directional momentum.  In other words, rates have been range-bound and they're ready to go higher or lower depending on the balance of economic data in the coming weeks and months.  Indeed, it could take months for this case to be closed.  In the meantime, we can only hurry up and wait while periodic flashpoints such as last week's CPI or Tuesday's Retail Sales make for small scale volatility inside the confines of a sideways range.

Econ Data / Events
    • NY Fed Manufacturing
      • -31.8 vs -18.0 f'cast, +10.8 prev
Market Movement Recap
08:42 AM

Weaker overnight but recovering a bit after NY Fed data.  10yr up roughly 1bp at 3.472.  MBS down 3 ticks (.09).

12:28 PM

10yr grinding against ceiling, up 4.6bps at 3.509.  MBS down just over an eighth (.16). No obvious themes emerging yet.

03:42 PM

Super sideways all day.  10yr finding some support at 3.51%, currently up 3.1bps on the day at 3.494.  MBS are down an eighth of a point.

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