Wed, Feb 8 2023, 9:57 AM
One of the biggest uncertainties of the week was resolved on Tuesday with Fed Chair Powell answering questions about the policy outlook without any re...
Tue, Feb 7 2023, 3:19 PM
Bonds Tried (And Failed) to Sustain Post-Powell Rally
After much anticipation and defensive positioning, the...
Tue, Feb 7 2023, 9:11 AM
In the wake of last week's strong economic data on Friday and follow-through weakness in overseas markets, traders are gearing up for additional Fed r...
Mon, Feb 6 2023, 3:23 PM
Suddenly Scared About Powell and Supply
Most of today's market movement was in the books within the first ha...
Mon, Feb 6 2023, 9:47 AM
Friday's strong jobs report and ISM data caused obvious, immediate problems for rates, but bonds held their ground fairly well all things considered. ...
Fri, Feb 3 2023, 4:31 PM
Perfect Storm Leaves Rate Range Perfectly Intact
Coming into the week, yields were near the top of a narrow ...
Fri, Feb 3 2023, 12:34 PM
While we may not have a great explanation or even the capacity to believe it, nonfarm payrolls came in at 517,000 this morning versus a median forecas...
Thu, Feb 2 2023, 3:52 PM
Bonds Talked Into Modest Gains by Europe
US bond traders didn't necessarily come into work with the intentio...
Thu, Feb 2 2023, 11:21 AM
Today's big story is the European bond market's reaction to the European Central Bank (ECB) announcement. The hike was as-expected, but the ECB also ...
Wed, Feb 1 2023, 4:08 PM
Markets Surprisingly Surprised by Unsurprising Powell Comments
We were pretty sure we knew what Powell would...
Wed, Feb 1 2023, 2:01 PM
Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remain...
Wed, Feb 1 2023, 11:44 AM
Long gone are the days where the market waits to find out he size of a rate hike/cut. The current regime clearly communicates these things ahead of t...
Tue, Jan 31 2023, 3:19 PM
What to Expect From Fed Day
Markets can see the changes in inflation data and traders are eager to refine th...
Tue, Jan 31 2023, 8:54 AM
The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is an economic report that was never on our radar as a top tier market mover in the past. Then in early 2022, Fed Cha...
Mon, Jan 30 2023, 4:40 PM
Skittish Over Data and Central Bankers
With no relevant market movers on the US calendar today, it was notab...
Mon, Jan 30 2023, 10:38 AM
Unlike last week, the present example offers multiple scheduled economic reports that have consistent track records of causing market movement. Key e...
Fri, Jan 27 2023, 4:57 PM
5 for 5 on Uneventful Trading Days; Next Week Should be Different
Heading into this week, if we had to guess...
Fri, Jan 27 2023, 12:06 PM
The two reports most capable of surprising the market this week were Thursday's GDP and Friday's PCE. While it's always good to maintain some respect...
Thu, Jan 26 2023, 4:28 PM
No Major Reaction to Data Means More Focus on Next Week
Thursday morning's economic data provided one of onl...
Thu, Jan 26 2023, 10:53 AM
Thursday's opening commentary could very well end up being the closing commentary. We came into the day entertaining the possibility that economic da...
Wed, Jan 25 2023, 3:55 PM
Uneventful Week Continues
Next time bond traders have a hard time getting to sleep, they could just read a r...
Wed, Jan 25 2023, 11:52 AM
If you'd like to skip right to the end, the week is shaping up to be every bit as inconsequential as anticipated with bonds holding in a fairly narrow...
Tue, Jan 24 2023, 3:53 PM
Small Scale Volatility Against Bigger-Picture Holding Pattern
Bonds took several opportunities to react to e...
Tue, Jan 24 2023, 11:03 AM
After having a case of the Mondays yesterday (unclear motivations and range-bound weakness amid low volume and light liquidity) bonds are back in the ...
Mon, Jan 23 2023, 4:07 PM
Bonds Have a Case of The Mondays
Unlike the past 3 Mondays, which have seen fairly healthy participation and...
Mon, Jan 23 2023, 11:34 AM
Reduced to the most simplistic of considerations, bond market price movement is all about supply and demand. The same is true of just about anything ...
Fri, Jan 20 2023, 5:03 PM
Bonds Retreat a Bit. No Compelling Reasons or Implications
Bonds rallied to the best levels in months ear...
Fri, Jan 20 2023, 1:01 PM
Since coming off the highest rates in more than a decade in November, bonds ran into resistance just before the end of the year. That resistance coin...
Thu, Jan 19 2023, 3:51 PM
Here's What's Up With These Big Swings in MBS Prices
Thursday ended up being a boring, uneventful trading da...
Thu, Jan 19 2023, 11:41 AM
So much illiquidity this week... But what does that really mean? Let's break it down...
There are buyers and sellers in the MBS market submitting "...
Wed, Jan 18 2023, 4:20 PM
Big Rally Challenges Range Floor. What Next?
Bonds started strong in the overnight session thanks to an unch...
Wed, Jan 18 2023, 11:55 AM
There was a fair amount of anticipation over the most recent policy announcement from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) which came out early in the overnight se...
Tue, Jan 17 2023, 3:59 PM
Limited Market Motivations as Traders Wait to Fill in Blanks
There was a palpable absence of relevant source...
Tue, Jan 17 2023, 12:15 PM
By the middle of December, bond yields made a convincing move down from decades-long highs and settled in a sideways range on CPI/Fed week. We re-ent...
Fri, Jan 13 2023, 3:30 PM
Incidental Weakness Today, But Let's Focus on The Bigger Picture
Bonds tried to stage a mid-day rally, but e...
Fri, Jan 13 2023, 12:26 PM
Recently, the bond market's job description seems to be almost entirely focused on reacting to CPI and then waiting for the next one. Perhaps we can ...
Thu, Jan 12 2023, 4:15 PM
Bonds Finally Decide They Liked Today's Inflation Numbers
You won't see too many days with a 10+ bp rally in...
Thu, Jan 12 2023, 10:30 AM
CPI came out very much in line with forecasts. We'd discussed the possibility of threading the needle in terms of financial markets not moving much i...
Wed, Jan 11 2023, 3:19 PM
Consolidation Takes Friendly Turn Ahead of CPI
Our focus this week has been on the notion of consolidation a...
Wed, Jan 11 2023, 10:46 AM
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) spent nearly a decade being ignored as a market mover due to an absence of any interesting momentum in inflation. That...
Tue, Jan 10 2023, 4:12 PM
MBS Outperform as Treasuries Get Hit by Issuance
By 4pm, 5.0 MBS are only down a hair over an eighth of a po...
Tue, Jan 10 2023, 12:04 PM
"Circling the wagons" isn't a particularly specific term in the realm of financial market commentary. It's just a simple way to say that bonds had be...
Mon, Jan 9 2023, 3:32 PM
Decent Day Helps Legitimize Friday's Gains
Any time we see a strong move on NFP Friday with a hint of "snowb...
Mon, Jan 9 2023, 11:32 AM
Last week brought a series of economic reports that took the bond market in both directions. Thursday's data pushed yields somewhat higher, but Frida...
Fri, Jan 6 2023, 4:49 PM
ISM and NFP Team Up To Send Rates Sharply Lower
Bonds got off to a strong start today when the wage componen...
Fri, Jan 6 2023, 9:50 AM
Here's a puzzler--at least at first glance. This morning's much-anticipated jobs report came out stronger than expected with nonfarm payrolls at 223k...
Thu, Jan 5 2023, 3:24 PM
Bonds Push Back Against Stronger Employment Data, But Tomorrow is a Different Fight
Bonds got off to a weake...
Thu, Jan 5 2023, 11:32 AM
The past two days of moderate gains have been "nice," but they were just a prologue to the more relevant opening days of 2023. For the last 2.5 weeks...
Wed, Jan 4 2023, 4:01 PM
Another Day Holding Modest Gains After AM Weakness
French CPI (of all the crazy things) helped bonds improve...
Wed, Jan 4 2023, 11:17 AM
In 15 years of MBS Live, this may be the first time French CPI made a headline, but today, it's deserved. It's not so much that France is a critical b...
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