Asymmetric Risk Ahead of Jobs Report

Bonds spent time on both sides of 'unchanged' today with much of it in territory that challenged the prevailing range.  If yields had to point at one reason to be trading near multi-month lows, it would be the uncertainty surrounding the banking sector.  Without that, one could argue that bond buyers were a bit offsides relative to the recent data and ahead of tomorrow's jobs report.  There's no way to know if it will be higher or lower than expected, but we can be reasonably sure that a sell-off in response to strong jobs would be bigger than a rally in response to weak jobs for a variety of reasons.

Econ Data / Events
    • Jobless Claims
      • 242k vs 240k f'cast, 229k prev
    • Q1 Labor Costs
      • 6.3 vs 5.5 f'cast, 3.3 prev
    • Challenger Job Cuts
      • 66.995k vs 89.703k f'cast
Market Movement Recap
09:06 AM

Flat overnight. Slightly weaker after data and Lagarde press conference.  10yr up 3.3bps at 3.397 and MBS down 6 ticks (.19).

11:53 AM

Moderately big gains on Western Alliance rumors.  10yr down 4.7bps at 3.317.  MBS up almost a quarter point.

01:40 PM

Coming off the highs in MBS.  Still up an eighth on the day, but down just over an eighth from the highs.  10yr down 1bp, but up 6 bps from the lows.

04:36 PM

Weakest levels of the afternoon for 10s, up 1.1bps at 3.375.  MBS down 1 tick (0.03).

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