Fri, Nov 21 2025, 1:01 PM
Builder confidence levels are still kicking the same sad little can down the road, just with slightly more enthusiasm. The November National Associati...
Fri, Nov 21 2025, 12:04 PM
“Six cows were smoking joints and playing poker. That's right: The steaks were pretty high.” The steaks, uh, stakes, are high when changes to our hous...
Fri, Nov 21 2025, 9:31 AM
It was a pretty straightforward overnight session with a very high degree of correlation between bond yields and stock prices. The final leg of the ra...
Thu, Nov 20 2025, 4:21 PM
Decent Gains Remain Intact; Stock Market Contribution is a Wild Card
The rescheduled release of the Septembe...
Thu, Nov 20 2025, 3:48 PM
Yesterday, we discussed the fact that mortgage rates were heading into Thursday with a disadvantage (for most lenders, anyway). This had to do with th...
Thu, Nov 20 2025, 11:46 AM
“Here we are, a week away from Thanksgiving, and I’m in Kansas City. My family told me to stop telling Thanksgiving jokes, but I said I couldn’t quit ...
Thu, Nov 20 2025, 9:19 AM
It's shaping up to be a "no whammies" sort of morning for the bond market. There's no denying that the jobs report was a highly tradeable event. The ...
Wed, Nov 19 2025, 4:23 PM
Fed Minutes Push Yields Higher
As expected, the recent raft of hawkish Fed speakers foreshadowed (whether in...
Wed, Nov 19 2025, 3:19 PM
It was a complicated day for mortgage rates. Officially, at the time of this article, the average top tier 30yr fixed rate is a hair lower than it wa...
Wed, Nov 19 2025, 11:41 AM
As I type these words, I am sitting in front of one of Chuck Berry’s early residences in St. Louis. STL has a good musical reputation, a fine mortgage...
Wed, Nov 19 2025, 10:11 AM
Correlation between stocks and bonds is hit and miss depending on other factors. Before the age of more aggressive Fed intervention, it was more commo...
Tue, Nov 18 2025, 4:46 PM
Modest Gains After Mid-Day Volatility
With only a few exceptions, bonds have been a rudderless ship during t...
Tue, Nov 18 2025, 4:11 PM
With economic data being the most consistent source of motivation for rates, the market has been eager for it to return with the reopening of the gove...
Tue, Nov 18 2025, 11:44 AM
Supposedly commercial air travel is back to normal, good for anyone coming in for the Mortgage Bankers Association of St. Louis event tomorrow and Thu...
Tue, Nov 18 2025, 10:22 AM
We've seen a clumsy, confused return of various economic reports this morning (several reports were no previously announced with rescheduled release d...
Mon, Nov 17 2025, 4:07 PM
Uneventful Monday; MBS Underperform
In the bigger picture, bonds were flat on Monday without any major volat...
Mon, Nov 17 2025, 3:33 PM
The bond market (which dictates rates) was roughly unchanged over the weekend. As such, it's no surprise to see mortgage rates right in line with Frid...
Mon, Nov 17 2025, 11:47 AM
Today’s trivia: Missouri and Tennessee are tied for bordering the most states: eight. This week I head to Missouri, the jumping off point for thousand...
Mon, Nov 17 2025, 9:30 AM
The jobs report (for September) will be released on Thursday. It is the first major econ data to re-appear after the shutdown. Notably, that's because...
Fri, Nov 14 2025, 4:58 PM
Gains Completely Erased; Stocks Looking More Culpable
Viewed in a vacuum, this mornings 7-8am rally remains ...
Fri, Nov 14 2025, 4:10 PM
Mortgage rates were only modestly higher on Friday, but because of the narrow prevailing range and previous increases this week, that brings us right ...
Fri, Nov 14 2025, 1:59 PM
Mortgage applications posted a modest increase last week, even as rates ticked slightly higher. According to MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey for the ...
Fri, Nov 14 2025, 11:47 AM
I always wonder, when I see two gas stations near each other in a small town, if the owners agree on pricing and share information. But when you’re de...
Fri, Nov 14 2025, 9:24 AM
Bonds were sideways to slightly weaker in the overnight session. 4am to 7am was exceptionally flat and narrow. This is notable because stocks had don...
Thu, Nov 13 2025, 4:02 PM
Moderately Weaker With Only The Reopening to Blame
The government reopened on Thursday. Both stocks and bon...
Thu, Nov 13 2025, 3:25 PM
Mortgage rates rose somewhat sharply following the late October Fed meeting but have been in a relatively narrow range so far in November. The range ...
Thu, Nov 13 2025, 11:45 AM
In news underwriters will need to know, banks and satirists across the United States are taking Director Bill Pulte’s and President Donald Trump’s 50-...
Thu, Nov 13 2025, 8:06 AM
First off, the market expected a shutdown resolution by mid November and especially since this past weekend. That's the reason today's news means ess...
Wed, Nov 12 2025, 4:10 PM
Bonds Look Past 10yr Auction to Maintain Focus on Jobs
While there were no big ticket economic reports on to...
Wed, Nov 12 2025, 3:15 PM
Mortgage rates are based on bond market movement and bonds are much stronger today compared to Monday. Although bonds were closed yesterday for the Ve...
Wed, Nov 12 2025, 11:53 AM
Its dog eat dog in the ranks of the FHFA and Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac. The question is, does anyone care, or is anyone surprised? We want to follow th...
Wed, Nov 12 2025, 10:21 AM
ADP has been in the monthly data game for a long time when it comes to payroll counts, but their weekly report is the new kid on the econ data block. ...
Mon, Nov 10 2025, 4:27 PM
Counting Down to Ending The Shutdown After Tuesday's Holiday Closure
Bonds were weaker in the overnight sess...
Mon, Nov 10 2025, 3:39 PM
Mortgage rates went into the weekend with a small cushion thanks to movement in the bond market on Friday. Specifically, bonds improved after mortgage...
Mon, Nov 10 2025, 11:46 AM
“6-7!” has swept the nation for youngsters of indeterminant age, and for no real reason. Other numbers have meaning, as do dates. For example, today i...
Mon, Nov 10 2025, 11:18 AM
If members of the House can make it back to D.C. in sufficient numbers, there's a real possibility that the shutdown will end this week. Some marketpl...
Fri, Nov 7 2025, 2:24 PM
Wednesday's mortgage rates were the highest in roughly a month and very close to the highest levels in 2 months. This followed stronger economic data...
Fri, Nov 7 2025, 11:50 AM
How was the Louve in Paris robbed? The password for the cameras was… ready? Louve. (I’m sure that the Smithsonian, MOMA, and Vatican IT staffs are bus...
Fri, Nov 7 2025, 10:51 AM
Although bonds began the day in roughly unchanged territory, they began losing ground shortly thereafter. Things changed at the 9:30am NYSE open as st...
Thu, Nov 6 2025, 5:14 PM
Have Bonds Found Their Post-Fed Footing?
Looked at one way, bonds have been in a moderate selling trend sinc...
Thu, Nov 6 2025, 4:29 PM
As of yesterday afternoon, mortgage rates were right in line with the highest levels in more than a month. The upward momentum was largely a product o...
Thu, Nov 6 2025, 11:51 AM
Frequent conference goers or traveling salespeople are obviously concerned about the Trump Administration cutting 10 percent of flights for a variety ...
Thu, Nov 6 2025, 10:49 AM
The shutdown has not only placed more emphasis on the alternative data that was already in the rotation, but also fueled interest in new sources. One ...
Wed, Nov 5 2025, 4:08 PM
A common recent refrain is that the bond market (which dictates interest rates) is having to make do without many of the most important regularly-sche...
Wed, Nov 5 2025, 12:00 PM
“Did you hear about the Chinese guy who spoke out against the government? Exactly.” Hate the U.S. Government or love it, sometimes government and lend...
Wed, Nov 5 2025, 10:28 AM
Today is a rare day when it comes to economic data. The first Wednesday of any given month is often an important one for economic data because ISM Se...
Tue, Nov 4 2025, 4:49 PM
Wednesday More Likely to Take Cues From Econ Data
Bonds benefited from heavy stock selling late in the overn...
Tue, Nov 4 2025, 4:33 PM
The average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate was technically 0.01% higher than yesterday, but that's the smallest possible detected move. It's just ...
Tue, Nov 4 2025, 11:44 AM
“Being a parent is like being a psychic who is always right but is always ignored.” Here in Austin, TX, whether it was the Texas Women Mortgage Banker...
Tue, Nov 4 2025, 9:53 AM
It doesn't always work like this, but today's overnight session saw the classic "conventional wisdom" trade with stocks prices and bond yields falling...
