Despite much stronger revisions and a modestly stronger core retail sales number this morning, bonds managed to hold mostly sideways until the afternoon hours. At that point, lighter summertime Friday afternoon trading gave way to a mini snowball that took yields to their highest levels of the week. Fed Funds futures suggested some thought behind the selling with the highest implied September rate since just before Tuesday's CPI. All that having been said, bonds could simply be hedging their optimism ahead of next week's Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Powell. In the bigger picture, little has changed since last Friday's jobs report.
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- Export prices mm (Jul)
- 0.1% vs 0.1% f'cast, prev 0.5%
- Import prices mm (Jul)
- 0.4% vs 0.0% f'cast, prev -0.1%
- NY Fed Manufacturing (Aug)
- 11.90 vs 0.0 f'cast, prev 5.50
- Retail Sales (Jul)
- 0.5% vs 0.5% f'cast, prev 0.6%
- Retail Sales (ex-autos) (Jul)
- 0.3% vs 0.3% f'cast, prev 0.8%
- Retail Sales Control Group MoM (Jul)
- 0.5% vs 0.4% f'cast, prev 0.8%
- Export prices mm (Jul)
Mixed reaction to econ data, but broadly sideways. 10yr down 0.2bps at 4.284 and MBS up 1 tick (.03).
10yr yields are now up 3.5bps on the day at 4.321. MBS are down 3 ticks (.09) on the day and just over an eighth from highs
just a bit weaker now. MBS down almost an eighth on the day and more than an eighth from early rate sheets. 10yr up 4.1bps at 4.327
Off the very weakest levels heading into the close with MBS down an eighth and 10yr yields up 3.9bps at 4.325
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