Fri, Jan 6 2023, 4:50 PM
The Federal Reserve (aka "The Fed") has a parrot problem, and it's on a crash course with economic reality... maybe. The Fed sets policies that impac...
Fri, Jan 6 2023, 4:49 PM
ISM and NFP Team Up To Send Rates Sharply Lower
Bonds got off to a strong start today when the wage componen...
Fri, Jan 6 2023, 10:07 AM
This is about the time you stop saying “Happy New Year” to people because you’ve forgotten who you’ve said it to and who you haven’t. Lenders and vend...
Fri, Jan 6 2023, 9:50 AM
Here's a puzzler--at least at first glance. This morning's much-anticipated jobs report came out stronger than expected with nonfarm payrolls at 223k...
Thu, Jan 5 2023, 3:32 PM
The most basic way to think about interest rate movement is to assume that a strong economy pushes rates higher and vice versa. There are many other ...
Thu, Jan 5 2023, 3:24 PM
Bonds Push Back Against Stronger Employment Data, But Tomorrow is a Different Fight
Bonds got off to a weake...
Thu, Jan 5 2023, 11:32 AM
The past two days of moderate gains have been "nice," but they were just a prologue to the more relevant opening days of 2023. For the last 2.5 weeks...
Thu, Jan 5 2023, 9:11 AM
While California girds its loins for an “atmospheric river and bomb cyclone”, readers should know that I sometimes ask myself, “Why can I remember the...
Wed, Jan 4 2023, 4:11 PM
There are Fed Announcements, which involve rate hikes/cuts, press conferences, and updated rate forecasts after a 2 day meeting among Fed members. An...
Wed, Jan 4 2023, 4:01 PM
Another Day Holding Modest Gains After AM Weakness
French CPI (of all the crazy things) helped bonds improve...
Wed, Jan 4 2023, 11:17 AM
In 15 years of MBS Live, this may be the first time French CPI made a headline, but today, it's deserved. It's not so much that France is a critical b...
Wed, Jan 4 2023, 9:21 AM
Don C. shot me a note saying, “My New Year's Resolution is to stop being so condescending! (Rob, condescending means talking down to people.)” Thank y...
Wed, Jan 4 2023, 8:22 AM
The end-of-year holiday season took its usual toll on mortgage applications. The Mortgage Brokers Association (MBA) report this morning recapped the p...
Tue, Jan 3 2023, 4:00 PM
The bond market (which determines mortgage rates) has officially endured the frustratingly unique holiday trading environment that often creates undue...
Tue, Jan 3 2023, 3:54 PM
Decent Gains Despite Headwinds
Bond market participants rushed back into the office today with volumes at th...
Tue, Jan 3 2023, 11:04 AM
The holiday season was unmistakably marked by a strong bias toward selling in the bond market. All we could do was watch the weakness and hold out h...
Tue, Jan 3 2023, 9:18 AM
I am very happy that my life is perfect. Isn’t yours? When I order scrambled eggs at the diner, the waitress says, “Perfect.” When I pay with a credit...
Fri, Dec 30 2022, 1:16 PM
Early Close; Light Volume and Month-End Could Cause Volatility
The early-close trading session at the end of...
Fri, Dec 30 2022, 1:12 PM
So long 2022! Don't let the door hit you. You were the worst year for mortgage rates that most of us have seen in our lifetimes in terms of the pace...
Fri, Dec 30 2022, 10:15 AM
My cat Myrtle (she/her/hers) doesn’t have a lot of financial savvy, and to the best of my knowledge has no 401(k). In another reminder not to put all ...
Thu, Dec 29 2022, 3:28 PM
Mortgage rates began the day very close to yesterday's latest levels. The average lender was just a hair higher. As the day progressed, US bonds fol...
Thu, Dec 29 2022, 3:22 PM
Nice Gains, But No Particular Reason
This is how they get ya! It's a classic sales tactic. The bond market...
Thu, Dec 29 2022, 12:48 PM
With Friday being a half day ahead of a 3 day weekend, today is essentially the end of the trading year. In fact, one could argue that December 15th ...
Thu, Dec 29 2022, 10:29 AM
What does someone look like when they started working in our business at age 15? Well, there’s always this interview last week with Robbie Chrisman (y...
Wed, Dec 28 2022, 3:37 PM
Late Day Leakage Keeps Things Gloomy For Bonds
We're witnessing the random walk of the winter holiday tradin...
Wed, Dec 28 2022, 3:10 PM
Up until just the past few weeks, the go-to headline to quantify the pace of recent mortgage rate movement tended to reference rates being the lowest ...
Wed, Dec 28 2022, 3:02 PM
Stop me if you've heard this one before: home sales numbers continue to suffer due to a perfect storm of higher rates, lofty prices, and tighter purse...
Wed, Dec 28 2022, 12:57 PM
Recent inflation data and a slightly softer stance from the Fed combined to crush the yield curve (10yr yields almost 90bps lower than 2yr yields in e...
Wed, Dec 28 2022, 8:23 AM
Have you ever heard the term “scuddle”? It’s an English term from the 1500’s meaning “to wash dishes,” something many of us did plenty of over Christm...
Tue, Dec 27 2022, 5:28 PM
Mortgage rates are based on trading in the bond market and it's a frustrating time of year for those seeking a rational relationship with bonds. In t...
Tue, Dec 27 2022, 5:21 PM
Frustrating Reasons For Weakness Are Still The Best Reasons We Have
Bonds were moderately weaker to start th...
Tue, Dec 27 2022, 1:13 PM
Annual home price increases fell back into single digits in October. Both the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller and Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA’s)...
Tue, Dec 27 2022, 10:12 AM
Tired of playing Rummikub with the fam? (Why are those red 11’s always in short supply?) Let’s divert your attention and ease back into residential mo...
Tue, Dec 27 2022, 9:24 AM
Have you heard the one about "holiday trading mode" in financial markets? It continues to be in full swing for bonds with lower volume, lighter liquid...
Fri, Dec 23 2022, 1:10 PM
The last two weeks of December are unlike almost any time of year in terms of market movement and what we should read into it, but there were several ...
Fri, Dec 23 2022, 1:09 PM
Still Not Reading Too Much Into This Week's Weakness
Friday began with bonds reacting negatively to economic...
Fri, Dec 23 2022, 11:52 AM
New home sales in November were a bit of a surprise, but a downward revision to October numbers accounted for much of the unexpected increase. The U.S...
Fri, Dec 23 2022, 10:12 AM
Every now and then, the market moves decisively in one direction or the other due to economic data, but the movement is the opposite of what most mark...
Fri, Dec 23 2022, 9:24 AM
Why are you even at work today? Just so you can read, “It’s not a recession unless it’s from the Recession Region of France, otherwise it’s just Spark...
Thu, Dec 22 2022, 2:58 PM
Rates have calmed down after some unfortunate and unexpected volatility at the beginning of the week. The average lender is offering just slightly hi...
Thu, Dec 22 2022, 2:51 PM
Small But Surprising Reaction to Data. Cruise Control Remain Intact
This morning's stronger-than-forecast GD...
Thu, Dec 22 2022, 12:46 PM
It's unfortunate that we're now more than 40 years away from Alec Guinness's "these aren't the droids you're looking for" line in Star Wars. It makes...
Thu, Dec 22 2022, 9:58 AM
When I see lover’s names carved into the wood on a tree, I don’t think it’s sweet. I just think how surprising it is how many people bring a knife on ...
Wed, Dec 21 2022, 4:36 PM
The headline could be read two ways. To be clear, the "recent rise" refers to Monday and Tuesday of this week. Before that, mortgage rates spent the...
Wed, Dec 21 2022, 4:32 PM
Sideways to Slightly Weaker After Early Gains
It ended up being an uneventful day for bonds despite a handfu...
Wed, Dec 21 2022, 1:08 PM
"No one" is a relative term when it comes to economic data. There are actually about 4 million people per year buying existing homes based on the ann...
Wed, Dec 21 2022, 12:07 PM
Bonds proved they were capable of rallying this week with respectable gains early this morning following two days of relatively sharp losses. Unfortun...
Wed, Dec 21 2022, 11:05 AM
As Wells Fargo was smacked upside the head with a $3.7 billion fine by the CFPB, sports news included Mat Ishbia and the Phoenix Suns, and the Senate ...
Wed, Dec 21 2022, 8:33 AM
Continuing declines in interest rates contributed to a substantial increase in applications for refinancing heading into the holiday season. This push...
Tue, Dec 20 2022, 4:26 PM
What a difference a few days have made for mortgage rates, and in this case, not a good difference. The average lender was offering the lowest rates ...
