Thu, Aug 21 2025, 3:33 PM
Some Headwinds Ahead of Powell's Jackson Hole Speech
Thursday brought the week's only relevant econ data wit...
Thu, Aug 21 2025, 1:03 PM
In a world (like this one) where mortgage rates are dictated by bond market movement and where bonds take cues from certain economic reports, weeks li...
Thu, Aug 21 2025, 10:53 AM
After sliding back in June, existing-home sales picked up in July. The latest update, released August 21, shows a modest rebound. Sales rose 2.0% to ...
Thu, Aug 21 2025, 10:24 AM
Today is the only day of the week with any economic reports that are relevant to bond market movement. The results are in, and bonds aren't thrilled. ...
Wed, Aug 20 2025, 3:19 PM
Almost No Reaction to Fed Minutes
As expected, today's Fed Minutes (a more detailed account of the meeting t...
Wed, Aug 20 2025, 2:57 PM
For the 11th straight business day, mortgage rates are very close to the levels from the end of the previous day. Over the past week, however, most o...
Wed, Aug 20 2025, 12:39 PM
Mortgage application activity eased last week, but not in a statistically significant way. One might be inclined to note a very slight uptick in mort...
Wed, Aug 20 2025, 11:35 AM
“I asked a German girl if Germans are afraid of numbers. She said 9!” Numbers make up the bond market, and a steeper yield curve (the difference betwe...
Wed, Aug 20 2025, 10:35 AM
By now, we've already said quite a bit about this week's scarcity of scheduled events with the power to motivate meaningful changes in the bond market...
Tue, Aug 19 2025, 4:21 PM
Slow, Steady, Modest Improvement
Bonds are in the throes of the summertime "blahs." In other words, exciteme...
Tue, Aug 19 2025, 3:32 PM
Mortgage rates are based on bonds and bonds, and bonds have some seasonality to them. This doesn't necessarily mean there's a reliable seasonal patte...
Tue, Aug 19 2025, 3:17 PM
Builder sentiment remains deeply subdued, as the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo’s Housing Market Index (HMI) dipped one ...
Tue, Aug 19 2025, 2:51 PM
The latest Residential Construction report from the Census Bureau showed a sharp rebound in July, with overall housing starts climbing 5.2% to a 1.428...
Tue, Aug 19 2025, 12:08 PM
If yesterday was marked by incidental weakness, today is shaping up to be the opposite. In fact, yields and MBS prices are right in line with Friday'...
Tue, Aug 19 2025, 11:53 AM
14 fonts Apologies first! Yesterday I mistakenly wrote, “ARMs now account for nearly 50 percent of applications…” Thank you again to those who wrote,...
Mon, Aug 18 2025, 3:56 PM
Incidental Weakness or a New Trend?
The most interesting thing that happened in the bond market today involv...
Mon, Aug 18 2025, 3:39 PM
Mortgage rates are as high as they've been on almost any other day this month. You'd have to go back to August 1st to see anything higher. On the ot...
Mon, Aug 18 2025, 10:37 AM
As I type this, I’m at the doctor’s office, and some guy a few seats over is booing all the names being called that aren’t his. Do you boo the product...
Mon, Aug 18 2025, 10:09 AM
Summertime trading conditions tend to amplify trading motivations that might otherwise get lost in the shuffle. This morning, it's been the opening be...
Fri, Aug 15 2025, 3:30 PM
Weaker Conclusion But No Major Big Picture Implications
Despite much stronger revisions and a modestly stron...
Fri, Aug 15 2025, 2:17 PM
Friday proved to be the weakest day of the week for the underlying bond market and, thus, the highest day of the week for mortgage rates. Retail sales...
Fri, Aug 15 2025, 11:45 AM
“The difference between me and Superman is that he has super vision. I require supervision.” We’re halfway through the third quarter: Will your compan...
Fri, Aug 15 2025, 10:03 AM
Friday morning's highlight is the Retail Sales report which came in at a respectable 0.5 vs 0.5 headline. Core retail sales (excluding autos/gas/build...
Thu, Aug 14 2025, 2:27 PM
Bonds Hold The Range Despite More Data-Driven Volatility
At 0.9, not only did today's PPI crush the 0.2 fore...
Thu, Aug 14 2025, 1:08 PM
Mortgage rates hit fresh long term lows yesterday with the average top tier 30yr fixed rate at the best levels since October 3rd, 2024. There wasn't ...
Thu, Aug 14 2025, 11:42 AM
“I somehow managed to make it through high school math while only being able to remember even numbers. What are the odds?!” As the California MBA’s We...
Thu, Aug 14 2025, 10:58 AM
There's no question that today's Producer Price Index came in surprisingly hot. Both the headline and core numbers were 0.9% vs forecasts of 0.2%. Th...
Wed, Aug 13 2025, 4:19 PM
Data-Free Rally Day
Wednesday represented this week's lull in terms of scheduled market movers on the calend...
Wed, Aug 13 2025, 1:34 PM
October 3rd, 2024 continues to be the day to beat when it comes to mortgage rates hanging out at 10 month lows. Today's top tier 30yr fixed rate match...
Wed, Aug 13 2025, 11:42 AM
I received this note from Dallas. “I like ‘dillos, but I don’t support giving them guns because... I would never armadillo.” Speaking of which, Texas ...
Wed, Aug 13 2025, 9:51 AM
Mortgage application activity surged last week as sharply lower mortgage rates boosted refinance demand and gave purchase applications a modest lift. ...
Wed, Aug 13 2025, 9:40 AM
Bonds rallied overnight, largely in concert with lower EU yields. Stable inflation in Germany and lower oil prices helped. But there was also a tailwi...
Tue, Aug 12 2025, 4:33 PM
Bonds Eventually Pass on Decisive Reaction to Tuesday's Data
Right at the 8:30am release time, bonds rallied...
Tue, Aug 12 2025, 3:50 PM
Pundits, politicians, and everyone else can continue to assume that mortgage rates will respond to changes to the Fed Funds Rate. Meanwhile the bonds ...
Tue, Aug 12 2025, 11:46 AM
“Nothing refreshes my memory about what I need at the grocery store like coming home from the grocery store.” Remember adjustable-rate mortgages? Here...
Tue, Aug 12 2025, 9:20 AM
There's something for everyone in this morning's CPI data. The monthly headline was on target at 0.2 vs 0.2. Same story for the core at 0.3 vs 0.3. Bo...
Mon, Aug 11 2025, 3:35 PM
Bonds Mostly Steady Ahead of CPI
Treasuries outperformed MBS just slightly today, but both were close enough...
Mon, Aug 11 2025, 2:58 PM
The average top tier 30yr fixed rate held exceptionally steady last week after moving just a bit lower over the weekend. By comparison, today's rates ...
Mon, Aug 11 2025, 11:48 AM
About 25 miles to the north of the California MBA’s Western Secondary, a mobile robotic microfactory is building fire-resistant homes in Palisades Fir...
Mon, Aug 11 2025, 11:34 AM
July represents the core of the summertime lull in financial markets. June and August are typically part of the lull unless econ data is suggesting a...
Fri, Aug 8 2025, 3:25 PM
Focus Shifts to Next Week's High Stakes CPI
Bonds lost ground at the fastest pace of the week on Friday, but...
Fri, Aug 8 2025, 1:57 PM
Mortgage rates finally moved in a slightly more noticeable direction today, but the change was still inconsequential in the bigger picture. The averag...
Fri, Aug 8 2025, 1:16 PM
Mortgage application activity rebounded last week as falling rates boosted both purchase and refinance demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s week...
Fri, Aug 8 2025, 11:52 AM
People gearing up for the Western Secondary in Southern California see that “technology” is on the agenda. (Of course, it is always on every agenda, r...
Fri, Aug 8 2025, 11:00 AM
Any week in early August (before anyone is back to school yet) classifies a "dog days of summer" type of week for the bond market. Movement is more ra...
Thu, Aug 7 2025, 4:19 PM
Fairly Resilient Despite Bumpy Auction
The relevant morning econ data was limited to Jobless Claims. While t...
Thu, Aug 7 2025, 3:54 PM
Mortgage rates have barely budged after Monday with the day-over-day change failing to exceed 0.02% on any given day. But today's budging happened to ...
Thu, Aug 7 2025, 11:51 AM
We’re back traveling and packing for the plethora of conferences. Packing and intellect sometimes collide: for the life of me, I can’t seem to grasp t...
Thu, Aug 7 2025, 9:49 AM
The week's last hope for any signs of life from economic data has come and gone with this morning's Jobless Claims. To be fair, there was never reall...
Wed, Aug 6 2025, 4:26 PM
More Ground-Holding Despite Weird Intraday Spike
This morning's commentary led with our desire to avoid jinx...
