Wed, Nov 20 2024, 3:41 PM
First thing's first, mortgage applications increased last week, both for purchases and refinances! It was the first improvement for refi demand since ...
Wed, Nov 20 2024, 11:48 AM
“I thought swimming with dolphins was expensive until I went swimming with sharks. It cost me an arm and a leg.” Through the wonders of modern air tra...
Wed, Nov 20 2024, 10:34 AM
There has been plenty of news over the past 48 hours regarding the U.S. greenlighting Ukraine to use long range missiles to attack Russia. Yesterday'...
Tue, Nov 19 2024, 4:59 PM
Bonds Give Back Most of The Overnight Gains
Stocks and bonds had a logical response to the threat of global ...
Tue, Nov 19 2024, 4:27 PM
Ask your favorite curmudgeonly old market watcher and they'll be happy to explain what "always" happens in financial markets when there's breaking new...
Tue, Nov 19 2024, 4:09 PM
The most common interval for scheduled economic data is "monthly." That means that things like inflation, sentiment, job counts, unemployment, retail...
Tue, Nov 19 2024, 11:13 AM
“What do giraffes and zoning regulations have in common? They both don't exist in Texas.” I am not heading there for a while, but instead head to St. ...
Tue, Nov 19 2024, 10:31 AM
Tuesday brings a classic example of a seemingly significant geopolitical headline resulting in a completely underwhelming bond market reaction. When ...
Mon, Nov 18 2024, 4:33 PM
Still Waiting For an End to Unfriendly Trend
It was an uneventful Monday for the bond market. Economic data...
Mon, Nov 18 2024, 4:01 PM
The average top tier conventional 30yr fixed rate was just a hair over 7% on Friday afternoon and the same is true at the start of the new week. Rate...
Mon, Nov 18 2024, 3:28 PM
Historically low interest rates may not have guaranteed historically high levels of housing activity, but exceptionally high rates have definitely mut...
Mon, Nov 18 2024, 11:44 AM
“I didn't make it to the gym again today. That makes five years in a row.” I did, however, make it to the aerodrome over the weekend, which involved t...
Mon, Nov 18 2024, 11:10 AM
While financial news outlets continue focusing on politics and Trump's cabinet picks, the bond market is expressing anxiety about the risk that econom...
Fri, Nov 15 2024, 3:41 PM
Uneventful Conclusion to Another Volatile Week
This morning began like many other recent mornings with econo...
Fri, Nov 15 2024, 2:54 PM
This afternoon's mortgage rates are higher than yesterday's latest levels. That's a result of bond market weakness seen late yesterday and earlier th...
Fri, Nov 15 2024, 11:48 AM
"To the person who stole my glasses. I will find you; I have contacts." Here in Cleveland, much of the mortgage talk involves conjecture about where w...
Fri, Nov 15 2024, 9:28 AM
All 3 of this morning's 8:30am economic reports were stronger than expected, and the 9:15am report was right in line with expectations. Of these, Ret...
Thu, Nov 14 2024, 4:34 PM
Powell Rains on Bond Market's Mini Parade
Today is a bit of a mirror image compared to yesterday. Bonds los...
Thu, Nov 14 2024, 4:15 PM
Losses... weakness... selling pressure... When any of these things happen in the bond market, it puts upward pressure on interest rates. Mortgage ra...
Thu, Nov 14 2024, 12:08 PM
Demographics matter. Although I am sending today’s Commentary out from a Dunkin’ near Columbus, Ohio, yesterday I found myself visiting a supposedly h...
Thu, Nov 14 2024, 10:01 AM
The morning has been both straightforward and interesting. The straightforward part involved a moderate sell-off following stronger economic data. J...
Wed, Nov 13 2024, 3:28 PM
While there's been plenty of movement in the average mortgage rate on any given day recently, today was not one of them. 30yr fixed rates remained ab...
Wed, Nov 13 2024, 3:11 PM
It's not entirely clear if it's a can or the proverbial bucket. All we know is that mortgage applications have been kicking it. There's no great way...
Wed, Nov 13 2024, 11:45 AM
“When I was young man, I met a girl in Tennessee who turned out to be a moonshiner’s daughter. That was a long time ago. But I love her still.” The Co...
Wed, Nov 13 2024, 10:20 AM
Bonds managed a moderate rally in response to this morning's inflation data. While it has since been mostly erased, it was as strong of a showing as ...
Tue, Nov 12 2024, 4:35 PM
Back to Regularly Scheduled Programming (Unfortunately)
Bonds sold off on Tuesday both during the domestic s...
Tue, Nov 12 2024, 3:35 PM
Last Thursday and Friday offered some hope that the persistent move to higher rates was finally leveling off. It wasn't necessarily a rational hope, ...
Tue, Nov 12 2024, 11:41 AM
What would lenders do without telephones and phone calls? In 1947 area codes were created by AT&T. Metropolitan areas were given low numbers so that p...
Tue, Nov 12 2024, 9:24 AM
In the run up to the election, we offered constant reminders that a 10bp move in Treasuries wasn't really a big deal, and that such volatility could b...
Fri, Nov 8 2024, 6:14 PM
Back to Uneventful Already?
MBS are ending the trading day at almost perfectly unchanged levels--not the sor...
Fri, Nov 8 2024, 5:22 PM
The bond market dictates day to day movement for all manner of interest rates, including mortgages. On election night, bond yields (another word for ...
Fri, Nov 8 2024, 12:10 PM
Many believe, and with good reason, that there will be some turnover at the CFPB coming up. Here are the pay grades if you’re interested in a job. (I ...
Fri, Nov 8 2024, 11:41 AM
"Buy the rumor, sell the news" is an age-old aphorism in financial markets for a reason. It accurately speaks to the real and repeatable phenomenon w...
Thu, Nov 7 2024, 5:12 PM
Breaking Down The Big Non-Fed-Related Rally
As intraday charts give way to daily charts in the coming weeks,...
Thu, Nov 7 2024, 4:33 PM
There's a distinct risk that, even in the financial community, that people will look back on today's drop in interest rates and conclude it must have ...
Thu, Nov 7 2024, 2:00 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains Since earlier in the year, labor market conditio...
Thu, Nov 7 2024, 12:27 PM
This morning's only relevant economic data was weekly jobless claims. The headline was right in line with forecasts and the non-adjusted number keeps...
Thu, Nov 7 2024, 10:20 AM
You knew that Minnesota has 90,000 miles of shoreline, more than California, Florida, and Hawaii combined, right? Here at Servion’s Fusion 24 event in...
Wed, Nov 6 2024, 5:29 PM
Does The Fed Still Matter?
Bonds sold off overnight as the reality of Trump's victory became apparent. Trad...
Wed, Nov 6 2024, 3:03 PM
Mortgage rates spent the entire month of October moving higher at a fairly quick pace. Some of that had to do with stronger economic data, but at lea...
Wed, Nov 6 2024, 2:36 PM
In today's weekly mortgage application survey from the MBA, the average 30yr fixed mortgage rate only rose from 6.73 to 6.81%. Meanwhile, daily avera...
Wed, Nov 6 2024, 11:24 AM
I went to a Vikings game with a friend and decided I wanted a drink. I wanted the big soda pop, but when I saw the price, I decided… A Minnesota will ...
Wed, Nov 6 2024, 9:45 AM
Heading into the election, we knew the bond market was losing ground in concert with improving odds of a Trump victory and red sweep. After being sur...
Tue, Nov 5 2024, 4:54 PM
Bonds Brace For Election Results
It was an interesting round trip for the bond market today as overnight wea...
Tue, Nov 5 2024, 4:00 PM
More often than not, mortgage lenders only set rates once a day. Their decisions are based on trading levels in the underlying bond market. Even thou...
Tue, Nov 5 2024, 11:46 AM
I think that I read somewhere that there’s an election today (in addition to the Boeing strike ending). Certainly, the sun will come up tomorrow, and ...
Tue, Nov 5 2024, 11:08 AM
Last week could easily have left us with the impression that the bond market's love affair with economic data was put on hold until after the election...
Mon, Nov 4 2024, 4:13 PM
Election Remains Dominant Source of Volatility
While the average day of the past few weeks has involved elec...
Mon, Nov 4 2024, 3:16 PM
Love it or hate it, election-related volatility has been having a big impact on the bond market and, thus, mortgage rates. Most of the volatility has...
Mon, Nov 4 2024, 11:50 AM
Someone’s making money out there, right? Freddie and Fannie continue to earn billions, with a good chunk coming from g-fee income, and see hundreds of...
