Thu, Nov 16 2023, 11:02 AM
“Every disaster movie starts with the government ignoring a scientist.” Vendors and lenders can’t ignore red ink. Here in Kansas City, one of the disc...
Wed, Nov 15 2023, 4:17 PM
Happy Thanksgiving From The Bond Market. See You in December
After Tuesday's big CPI reaction, Wednesday bro...
Wed, Nov 15 2023, 4:06 PM
The story of the week for mortgage rates continues to be the substantial drop seen on Tuesday in response to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). But that ...
Wed, Nov 15 2023, 12:10 PM
If you had to script out the most likely course of events after Tuesday's big post-CPI bond rally, the safest expectation would be for a token pull-ba...
Wed, Nov 15 2023, 10:36 AM
Besides Janet Yellen’s In-N-Out foray, it is a rough environment out there: Hope you don’t want a Wells Fargo HELOC. Or just ask Citizens who is exiti...
Wed, Nov 15 2023, 8:25 AM
Even though mortgage interest rates changed only slightly, the volume of mortgage applications moved higher for the second time in as many weeks. The ...
Tue, Nov 14 2023, 4:05 PM
Another Big November Rally After CPI
There's something about CPI releases in November. Last year's example ...
Tue, Nov 14 2023, 3:45 PM
November 3rd's jobs report brought an outstanding week for Treasuries and mortgage rates to an outstanding conclusion. From there, the following week...
Tue, Nov 14 2023, 11:06 AM
Ever since the jobs report on November 3rd, today's CPI report was in focus as the next major fundamental focal point for the bond market. As 10yr yi...
Tue, Nov 14 2023, 10:32 AM
This morning I head to Kansas, greeted by the news that Southwest is raising drink fees for the holidays. Has the “Let’s circle back after the holiday...
Mon, Nov 13 2023, 4:51 PM
MBS Outperform Ahead of CPI
Monday had very little to offer in terms of calendar events or meaningful headl...
Mon, Nov 13 2023, 4:43 PM
Mortgage rates began the day at the highest levels in nearly 2 weeks. The underlying bond market had been losing ground steadily since last Thursday ...
Mon, Nov 13 2023, 12:31 PM
Last week ended up being a sideways dud in terms of the bond market's willingness to do anything new after the previous week's big rally. That said, ...
Mon, Nov 13 2023, 11:52 AM
Whether it is an obscure band or an eatery in San Diego, a well-known palindrome is “tacocat.” Huh? Yes, it’s the same spelled backward or forward. Yo...
Fri, Nov 10 2023, 4:21 PM
While it's possible to accuse mortgage rates of experiencing volatility over the past few days, this week was exceptionally calm compared to last week...
Fri, Nov 10 2023, 4:20 PM
All Eyes on CPI
After last Friday's jobs report, there wasn't anything on the event calendar that demanded o...
Fri, Nov 10 2023, 1:59 PM
Coming off of last week's big rally, the present week looked like a long shot to offer any exciting developments. Now in the rearview, the lack of exc...
Fri, Nov 10 2023, 11:47 AM
My cat Myrtle is enthralled with Artificial Intelligence (AI). Okay, I made that up. She’s only interested to the extent that it impacts the supply of...
Thu, Nov 9 2023, 4:48 PM
It was a great run for mortgage rates over the last 2 weeks with a sharp decline last week followed by very respectable ground-holding in the present ...
Thu, Nov 9 2023, 4:44 PM
30yr Auction Draws a Line Under The Range
The day began with nominal, inconsequential weakness in bonds. 10...
Thu, Nov 9 2023, 12:13 PM
There's a tendency, among bond watching loan originators, to focus a bit too much on whatever is happening on the present day in the bond market. Hig...
Thu, Nov 9 2023, 10:21 AM
Originators: Want to add value for your potential current or previous clients who are veterans? Send them a link to Veteran’s Day discounts and free m...
Wed, Nov 8 2023, 4:50 PM
There have been more than a few days in the recent past with absolutely massive day-over-day swings in mortgage rates. In fact, on each of the first ...
Wed, Nov 8 2023, 4:38 PM
Well-Received 10yr Auction Helps Validate New Range
With the present week lacking in terms of scheduled data...
Wed, Nov 8 2023, 11:08 AM
Bonds surged lower in yield last week on a combination of economic data, Fed comments, and the Treasury issuance update. While the move definitely dr...
Wed, Nov 8 2023, 9:54 AM
You should know that caffeine increases the power of aspirin and other painkillers, which is why it is found in some medicines. You should also know t...
Wed, Nov 8 2023, 8:11 AM
A quarter-point decline in 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) interest pushed mortgage application activity higher across the board during the week end...
Tue, Nov 7 2023, 5:17 PM
After one of the best 3-day winning streaks in decades last week, mortgage rates jumped a bit to start the new week. That jump turned out to be a tem...
Tue, Nov 7 2023, 5:16 PM
Back to Breaking Even on The Week
Bonds rallied overnight thanks to weaker econ data in Europe and managed t...
Tue, Nov 7 2023, 12:45 PM
Every now and then European markets do favors for the US bond market narrative. They can also detract, but today is not one of those days. Weaker ov...
Tue, Nov 7 2023, 10:22 AM
Yes, WeWork has filed for bankruptcy, but if you look at GDP and employment, our economy is doing pretty well. Did you know that the Dallas metro area...
Mon, Nov 6 2023, 4:52 PM
In and of itself, today would rank among the handful of "worst days" of any given year in term of mortgage rate movement. In other words, comparing t...
Mon, Nov 6 2023, 4:51 PM
Bonds Feeling Defensive Ahead of Auctions?
The title of today's recap gets a question mark because it's fair...
Mon, Nov 6 2023, 11:13 AM
Bonds are starting the new week in slightly weaker territory. There are not compelling motivations for the move in terms of data, events, or headline...
Mon, Nov 6 2023, 10:39 AM
Do you use make up? Charles Revson of Revlon observed, back in the days when you could observe these things, "In the factory, we make cosmetics; in th...
Fri, Nov 3 2023, 4:53 PM
If Data Stays in This Week's Range, The Highs Are In
Friday's weak jobs report and strong bond market reacti...
Fri, Nov 3 2023, 1:11 PM
The average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate was over 8% as recently as October 19th. At the start of the present week, things weren't much better a...
Fri, Nov 3 2023, 12:20 PM
There was a lot riding on this morning's jobs report. It was in an ideal position to cast a vote on this week's bullish correction. A big beat was l...
Fri, Nov 3 2023, 10:08 AM
The upcoming credit price changes were not discussed yesterday at the counter in Paul’s Pancake Parlor here in Missoula, but they might have been. As ...
Thu, Nov 2 2023, 3:59 PM
The stratification of rate offerings between lenders is very high due to rapid changes over the past few days and weeks. On average, top tier convent...
Thu, Nov 2 2023, 3:53 PM
Tough Afternoon For Lock vs Float Decisions
Even yesterday, we were already trying to reconcile the size of ...
Thu, Nov 2 2023, 11:20 AM
Bonds improved significantly yesterday after the Treasury refunding announcement, economic data, and Fed press conference. Most reports attribute the...
Thu, Nov 2 2023, 10:31 AM
The talk here in Missoula is about general inflation, and continued reductions & cutbacks as our biz hunkers down. Yet a mortgage publication just rai...
Wed, Nov 1 2023, 5:30 PM
Powell + Data = Big Bond Rally
When traders/analysts look back to see what was on the calendar when 10yr Tre...
Wed, Nov 1 2023, 5:14 PM
Today was "Fed day" and mortgage rates fell quite a bit. So it must have been due to the Fed announcement, right? Not exactly... The Fed helped, ...
Wed, Nov 1 2023, 2:00 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding expanded at a solid pace. strong pace in the third quarter. Job gains have ...
Wed, Nov 1 2023, 12:31 PM
Today's the day where economic data and events ramp up significantly. Not only do we have more events on the calendar, but they're also increasingly ...
Wed, Nov 1 2023, 10:45 AM
This morning it’s off to Missoula, Montana, for me to spend some time with the folks at MAMP. (Few states have as many different species of mammals as...
Wed, Nov 1 2023, 9:07 AM
Mortgage application volume moved lower for the third consecutive time during the week ended October 27 , losing another 2.1 percent on a seasonally a...
Tue, Oct 31 2023, 3:21 PM
Coming into the current week, we expected to see a fair amount of volatility. Last week was volatile in its own right, but in a broadly sideways traj...
