Fri, May 5 2023, 12:35 PM
ADP, Consumer Confidence labor differential, ISM Manufacturing. Challenger job cuts, Philly Fed, Empire State, Continuing Jobless Claims... These are...
Fri, May 5 2023, 10:46 AM
Airbnb rolled out some changes in an effort to take business away from hotels. Mexico has about 400,000 Airbnb listings, and I mention this because to...
Thu, May 4 2023, 4:52 PM
There's likely no getting around that fact that mortgage rates will be moving noticeably--possibly substantially--in the coming days. This is due to ...
Thu, May 4 2023, 4:40 PM
Asymmetric Risk Ahead of Jobs Report
Bonds spent time on both sides of 'unchanged' today with much of it in ...
Thu, May 4 2023, 11:39 AM
After yesterday's Fed announcement and press conference, longer-term bond yields moved quickly into a position to challenge the prevailing range floor...
Thu, May 4 2023, 9:55 AM
Inflation? Yes, inflation! Yesterday I flew from San Francisco to Cody, Wyoming for the WMLA Conference, and indulged in a breakfast at SFO of a slice...
Wed, May 3 2023, 4:27 PM
The implication of "Fed rate hikes" is a constant source of confusion in the housing market. The general belief is that the Fed controls rates and if...
Wed, May 3 2023, 4:07 PM
Bonds Like Fed's Dovish Hike
There was really only one option for the Fed today: hike rates by 25bps but sig...
Wed, May 3 2023, 2:00 PM
Recent indicators point to Economic activity expanded at a modest growth pace in spending and production. the first quarter. Job gains have p...
Wed, May 3 2023, 1:32 PM
While home prices continue to fall on an annual basis, new data from Black Knight indicates that the trend may not continue beyond the short term. The...
Wed, May 3 2023, 10:45 AM
If I tried to carry my cat Myrtle around like in this short video, there would be conflict. We all continue to hear conflicting information about home...
Wed, May 3 2023, 10:42 AM
There were two big potential market movers on the calendar today: ISM non-manufacturing and the Fed announcement. ISM data is out and it is boring (r...
Wed, May 3 2023, 9:04 AM
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) noted a slight decrease in mortgage applications during the week ended April 28. Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President...
Tue, May 2 2023, 4:23 PM
Mortgage rates began the week with a moderately big jump to what were essentially the highest levels in more than a month. Less than 24 hours later a...
Tue, May 2 2023, 4:09 PM
What a Difference a Day Makes
Bonds completely erased yesterday's snowball sell-off with an even bigger snow...
Tue, May 2 2023, 10:38 AM
After a sharp sell-off to start the week, bonds are back in action this morning, enjoying the carnage and chaos in the economy every bit as much as th...
Tue, May 2 2023, 10:07 AM
If you’re really happy when a scheduled conference or Zoom call is cancelled, does that mean you’re in the wrong line of work? (Asking for a friend.) ...
Mon, May 1 2023, 4:46 PM
Snowball Sell-Off to Start The Month
Sometimes headlines reference the beginning or end of any given day/wee...
Mon, May 1 2023, 4:42 PM
Whether we call it a bailout, a failure, or a fire sale, First Republic Bank was formally absorbed by JP Morgan Chase early this morning. Interest rat...
Mon, May 1 2023, 12:13 PM
The bond market is in a trifecta of trouble so far this morning. Just before the open, JPM announced that it was assuming the loans and deposits of F...
Mon, May 1 2023, 9:25 AM
Did you know that cows snooze laying down for the four hours of sleep they need a day? Did you know that horses sleep standing up? These tidbits may c...
Fri, Apr 28 2023, 4:40 PM
Stronger Today, Sideways in General
Bonds improved overnight on a combination of friendly central bank news ...
Fri, Apr 28 2023, 4:19 PM
Mortgage rates fell nicely to start the week but only after rising rather abruptly in the previous two weeks. That said, short term ups and downs are ...
Fri, Apr 28 2023, 10:54 AM
Bonds were ushered into the domestic session in moderately stronger territory thanks to a friendly policy announcement from the Bank of Japan and soft...
Fri, Apr 28 2023, 10:08 AM
“Rob, earlier this week you posted some ‘units funded’ information from the MBA showing a dramatic decline from a few years ago... Dollar-wise, certai...
Thu, Apr 27 2023, 4:38 PM
Bonds Reposition For "Higher For Longer" After GDP
Today's GDP number came in lower than expected at 1.1 vs ...
Thu, Apr 27 2023, 4:12 PM
Interest rates are determined by the price/yield of bonds. Bonds can take cues from several places, but inflation always matters. Inflation had been...
Thu, Apr 27 2023, 3:41 PM
Thu, Apr 27 2023, 12:30 PM
The bond market is standing in front of the whack-a-mole game with only 2 holes. On one side is the mini banking crisis. On the other side is inflat...
Thu, Apr 27 2023, 10:27 AM
Born in Ukraine, Golda Meir said, “Old age is like a plane flying through a storm. Once you are aboard there is nothing you can do about it." (Doubtfu...
Wed, Apr 26 2023, 3:48 PM
For mortgage rates and the broader bond market, everything has been fairly sideways in the bigger picture since the initial wave of bank drama in earl...
Wed, Apr 26 2023, 3:37 PM
Bonds Follow First Republic News Cycle; MBS Underperform
First Republic Bank (FRC) remains in focus as a tra...
Wed, Apr 26 2023, 11:23 AM
On the heels of yesterday's weak earnings, First Republic was back in the news this morning with reports that it's exploring a fire sale that would in...
Wed, Apr 26 2023, 10:14 AM
There are 3 things that tell the truth: small children, drunk people, and yoga pants. HMDA data is close behind. Warning: sobering thoughts ahead, and...
Wed, Apr 26 2023, 8:32 AM
Mortgage application volume increased during the week ending April 21. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measu...
Tue, Apr 25 2023, 4:48 PM
Mortgage rates are based on movement in the bond market. Bonds move for a variety of reasons, but one of the most basic is due to their function as a...
Tue, Apr 25 2023, 4:29 PM
Risk Aversion Returns. Bonds Like It
First Republic's weaker earnings set the tone in the overnight session ...
Tue, Apr 25 2023, 1:06 PM
Today brings the latest monthly installment of the two major home price indices from Case Shiller and the FHFA. While these numbers only bring us up ...
Tue, Apr 25 2023, 12:34 PM
New home sales figures bounced higher again in Marc h, outperforming February sales by 9.6 percent. The U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing a...
Tue, Apr 25 2023, 11:17 AM
Weaker earnings from a few notable names, including First Republic Bank... Weaker economic outlooks at home and abroad... Debt ceiling trepidation......
Tue, Apr 25 2023, 9:51 AM
While here in Denver I received an email. “Rob, does what’s going on in Florida impact lenders?” I had to figure out if the author was asking about Di...
Mon, Apr 24 2023, 4:07 PM
While the news media bonfire on the recent LLPA tweak is only getting started, it's time for us to shift gears back to boring old mortgage rates (if y...
Mon, Apr 24 2023, 3:53 PM
Should Have Taken The 3-Day Weekend!
Every so often, the bond market has a Monday that does absolutely nothi...
Mon, Apr 24 2023, 1:05 PM
The bond market remains in an aggressively sideways holding pattern as traders wait for economic data and events that have enough street cred to meani...
Mon, Apr 24 2023, 9:31 AM
I head to Colorado Springs this morning, the scene of $3,000 mountain bikes in bike racks on top of $500 cars. There are roughly 380 bank branches in ...
Fri, Apr 21 2023, 5:06 PM
Seemingly overnight, the internet is awash with news regarding a "new," unfair tax on mortgage borrowers with higher credit scores. Some have gone so ...
Fri, Apr 21 2023, 5:01 PM
From Slightly Stronger to Slightly Weaker After PMI Data
The "data dependent" theme kept on rockin' all week...
Fri, Apr 21 2023, 1:06 PM
Bonds began the day in roughly unchanged territory and made some gains early. The 9:45am PMI data was the only item on the calendar and we'd consider...
Fri, Apr 21 2023, 10:17 AM
California, home of nearly 25 percent of home loans, is doing some interesting things, utility-wise. Last year came AB 205 which instructs the state’s...
Thu, Apr 20 2023, 4:54 PM
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) measures the sales of previously owned homes. These so-called Existing Home Sales account for a vast major...
