Tue, Apr 23 2024, 4:12 PM
Mortgage rates are driven by day to day changes in the bond market. Bonds are focused on the Fed and the economic data that shapes Fed decisions. To...
Tue, Apr 23 2024, 12:47 PM
Existing home sales posted strong gains in February while sales of new homes slipped slightly. In March each category switched directions. The U.S. Ce...
Tue, Apr 23 2024, 11:56 AM
Is it any surprise to see a strong reaction to economic data when the phrase "data dependent" has come to unequivocally rule all other approaches to u...
Tue, Apr 23 2024, 11:35 AM
“The next time you dislike your life, remember it’s all about perspective. I know someone who reads 2-3 books a week, works out twice a day, has no fi...
Mon, Apr 22 2024, 4:19 PM
Boring Monday Keeps The Focus on Next Week
Monday may as well have been a 3rd weekend day as far as the bond...
Mon, Apr 22 2024, 4:01 PM
Mortgage rates began the new week at almost exactly the same levels seen at the end of last week. There were no major events or economic reports to c...
Mon, Apr 22 2024, 11:28 AM
When I was a kid, whenever I would walk by a pay phone or newspaper vending machine, I’d check the coin change slot. Or periodically check under my Da...
Mon, Apr 22 2024, 8:47 AM
It's no secret that a vast majority of bond market movement these days occurs in response to a small handful of economic reports and the Fed's quarter...
Fri, Apr 19 2024, 4:32 PM
Sometimes Sideways is The Best Case Scenario
Granted, there was a possibility that today could have been a r...
Fri, Apr 19 2024, 4:30 PM
The Fed expected to be able to cut rates 3 times in 2024 as recently as March. Financial markets agreed. But the data that's come out since then has e...
Fri, Apr 19 2024, 11:33 AM
It is “Take Your Child to Work Day” next Thursday which, if you work from home, is probably like a day off from school for the tyke. (I won’t be bring...
Fri, Apr 19 2024, 10:06 AM
The overnight session began with a very clear flight to safety in stocks (sell) and bonds (buy) on headlines regarding increased hostilities between I...
Thu, Apr 18 2024, 3:55 PM
Good News and Bad News About Today's Selling
The bad news is that bonds resumed their weaker tendencies toda...
Thu, Apr 18 2024, 3:36 PM
Tuesday marked the highest mortgage rates since November, capping a mini surge that began after last week's inflation data. After a moderate improveme...
Thu, Apr 18 2024, 12:09 PM
After the best day in a month and a half on Wednesday, the bond market is back to its recent habit of selling off and moving toward higher yields. It...
Thu, Apr 18 2024, 11:12 AM
What loan officer hasn’t had a memorable co-signing experience? Some more so than others. Along those lines, if you head to Disneyland or Disneyworld,...
Wed, Apr 17 2024, 4:32 PM
Too Soon to Say Higher Yields Are Bringing Buyers?
Bonds enjoyed their best day in more than a month and a h...
Wed, Apr 17 2024, 4:14 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower today after hitting the highest levels since mid November yesterday. Some lenders were down as much as an eighth of a perc...
Wed, Apr 17 2024, 11:37 AM
“We base our business model on lots of things, but not on our ability to predict rates.” Remember when there used to be “a flight to quality” when the...
Wed, Apr 17 2024, 11:16 AM
The bond market is getting off to a stronger start today despite an absence of any new motivations in the news or economic calendar. In fact, the cal...
Wed, Apr 17 2024, 8:35 AM
Mortgage interest rates rose for the second straight week, and so did the volume of mortgage applications. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said...
Tue, Apr 16 2024, 4:56 PM
The bad times keep rolling for mortgage rates with the average conventional 30yr fixed rate back up to 7.5% according to our daily index. This is qui...
Tue, Apr 16 2024, 4:54 PM
Powell Confirms What The Bond Market Already Knew
Morning hours were frustrating for the bond market as we w...
Tue, Apr 16 2024, 11:41 AM
While builder confidence in the market for new residential construction improved in March, it remained flat in April and residential construction numb...
Tue, Apr 16 2024, 11:30 AM
“Congratulations to the Kardashians on their 20th season. And to me for never having watched a single minute of a single episode.” There are certainly...
Tue, Apr 16 2024, 11:25 AM
Yesterday's commentary pulled an occasionally used phrase off the shelf by referring to recent weakness as a "repricing" in the broader bond market. ...
Mon, Apr 15 2024, 3:55 PM
In 2023, there were multiple examples of mortgage rates moving up by roughly half a percent in a relatively short amount of time (1-3 weeks). Since t...
Mon, Apr 15 2024, 3:52 PM
Data-Driven Repricing Continues
There are two kinds of "repricing" to consider when you're a mortgage market...
Mon, Apr 15 2024, 11:28 AM
No one is getting any younger, not even Clint Eastwood. Time marches on, as does, apparently, the cost of mailing a letter. The post office wants to j...
Mon, Apr 15 2024, 11:28 AM
The bond market sold off steadily and gradually overnight session despite news of escalation between Iran and Israel. Ever since the start of the war...
Fri, Apr 12 2024, 5:04 PM
Time to Hurry Up and Wait Again
Friday ended up being reasonably pleasant, but mostly uneventful. Gains wer...
Fri, Apr 12 2024, 4:54 PM
Wednesday was one of the worst days in decades in terms of single-day upward movement in mortgage rates. Thursday added a bit more insult to the inju...
Fri, Apr 12 2024, 11:24 AM
When I win the lottery, I am going to buy one of these to heat my blankets at home. Of course, that would mean that I will have to start playing the l...
Fri, Apr 12 2024, 10:22 AM
Bonds began the overnight session in modestly stronger territory but the gains started adding up in earnest after European markets opened for the day....
Thu, Apr 11 2024, 4:39 PM
About as Uneventful as it Could Have Been
Any time we have a huge day of movement, regardless of the reason,...
Thu, Apr 11 2024, 4:14 PM
Wednesday's Consumer Price Index caused a brutally fast spike in mortgage rates. It wasn't notable for taking us to exceptionally high levels (Octobe...
Thu, Apr 11 2024, 12:10 PM
After a day like Wednesday (one of the top 20 weakest bond market days of the past few decades), one of the top concerns is that the following day wil...
Thu, Apr 11 2024, 11:35 AM
The next time you complain about your job, just be thankful you’re not working at Cinnabon. (Excuse the language.) Did you know that tomorrow is “Take...
Wed, Apr 10 2024, 4:23 PM
Mortgage rates surged at a pace seen only one other time since October 2022. The average lender moved up by 0.28%, which is functionally equivalent t...
Wed, Apr 10 2024, 4:16 PM
A Really Bad Day For The Bond Market
To reiterate the point made in today's morning commentary, there was a ...
Wed, Apr 10 2024, 11:43 AM
Remember when lenders were fretting about Amazon rolling out a major home loan program? The new acronym that the mortgage industry was about to start ...
Wed, Apr 10 2024, 11:38 AM
When it comes to big ticket economic events, the average anticipatory headline tends to be a bit more dramatic than the actual outcome. It's our way ...
Wed, Apr 10 2024, 8:39 AM
The interest rate for conforming 30-year fixed-rate mortgages (FRM) again topped 7 percent last week, but mortgage application activity still squeezed...
Tue, Apr 9 2024, 4:27 PM
Mortgage rates roughly matched their highest levels in months yesterday, but managed to turn things around today. One could argue that the broader bo...
Tue, Apr 9 2024, 4:27 PM
Nice Tuesday For Bonds, But It's All About Wednesday
Tuesday turned out to be great for bonds with MBS up ne...
Tue, Apr 9 2024, 11:37 AM
Here in the Hill Country near Austin, Texas, there’s an active market of sellers and buyers of real estate. It is a safe bet that most use agents; aro...
Tue, Apr 9 2024, 9:36 AM
The overnight session was generally a mirror image of yesterday's with 10yr yields moving several bps lower in a linear, steady trend. Unlike yesterd...
Mon, Apr 8 2024, 4:42 PM
Uneventful, Sideways Day After Initial Losses
Today had the dubious distinction of seeing the highest yields...
Mon, Apr 8 2024, 4:02 PM
Mortgage rates moved up somewhat abruptly today as the bond market lost more ground over the weekend. Rates are driven primarily by bonds, but mortga...
Mon, Apr 8 2024, 11:49 AM
Bonds began the new week with follow-through selling overseas. Losses were steady and linear in both Asia and Europe. It's tempting to chalk up some...
