Mon, Dec 2 2024, 9:18 AM
It can be a bit tricky to understand the roll of various forms of positioning when it comes to otherwise inexplicable movement in the bond market. It...
Fri, Nov 29 2024, 12:23 PM
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) released its weekly application survey results on Wednesday. The highlight was a 12.43% increase in purchase a...
Fri, Nov 29 2024, 8:18 AM
“I was late to my cannibal family's Thanksgiving dinner. I got the cold shoulder.” LOs are experts on family life and demographics. The share of bot...
Wed, Nov 27 2024, 3:17 PM
Stronger Bonds, Before and After (And Regardless of) Economic Data
Bonds were stronger overnight with 10yr y...
Wed, Nov 27 2024, 2:53 PM
The interest rate market continues the healing process after taking heavy damage in October. During the course of that month, the average top tier co...
Wed, Nov 27 2024, 11:39 AM
“Rob, my borrowers would be really happy with rates below 7 percent. When will we get there?” A wise economist with the MBA once told me, “If you’re g...
Wed, Nov 27 2024, 9:18 AM
Although this morning contained the week's most active slate of economic data, it has completely failed to inspire even the most modest of responses i...
Tue, Nov 26 2024, 3:17 PM
No Major Data. No Major Drama
While today's economic calendar was not necessarily "empty," it may as well ha...
Tue, Nov 26 2024, 2:12 PM
Although there was a busier calendar of economic data today, mortgage rates are little changed after dropping at the fastest pace in several weeks to ...
Tue, Nov 26 2024, 11:47 AM
“If there's anyone out there who has no family and is planning to stay home alone this Thanksgiving, please let me know. I need to borrow some chairs....
Tue, Nov 26 2024, 10:31 AM
Even on a good day, the Census Bureau's New Residential Sales report has a notoriously wide margin of error. But today's 12.8% margin of error isn't ...
Tue, Nov 26 2024, 9:56 AM
There are two key, big picture home price indices in the U.S. They come out every month, but with a 2 month lag. That means we're getting September'...
Tue, Nov 26 2024, 9:50 AM
Monday brought a rare event for the bond market in the recent context as yields fell throughout the day and never really thought about bouncing. It wa...
Mon, Nov 25 2024, 4:05 PM
Come For The Big Rally, Stay For The Staying Power
Bonds rallied sharply on Monday. It wasn't the first tim...
Mon, Nov 25 2024, 3:32 PM
Last Monday, mortgage rates were near the highest levels in more than 3 months. A week later, and the average lender is right in line with the lowest...
Mon, Nov 25 2024, 11:48 AM
“Pro tip” to start the week: Be sure to bring up politics at your family's Thanksgiving dinner. You'll save a lot of money on Christmas gifts. A tip t...
Mon, Nov 25 2024, 8:54 AM
Of all of Trump's political appointees, Treasury Secretary is the most consequential for the bond market ("Treasury" is right in the title, after all!...
Fri, Nov 22 2024, 4:26 PM
Getting Back to Normal, For a Few Days Anyway
After a decidedly abnormal 6 weeks beginning in early October,...
Fri, Nov 22 2024, 3:01 PM
Starting in early October, mortgage rates experienced significant volatility, meaning the average day over day change was much bigger than normal. Wh...
Fri, Nov 22 2024, 12:03 PM
The bond market has been forced to take the victories that are within reach. As November winds down, the best victory we could have hoped for was the...
Fri, Nov 22 2024, 11:48 AM
Want a house for a dollar? Italy has them… figure out the impact on comps for appraisals! To the best of my knowledge, my cat Myrtle never lived in It...
Thu, Nov 21 2024, 4:52 PM
Another Flat Day, This Time With Data
While it would be an overstatement to say that bonds have fully outgro...
Thu, Nov 21 2024, 4:26 PM
They may not be low. In fact, they may still be a lot higher than you want, but at least they haven't been too volatility this week. For the 7th day...
Thu, Nov 21 2024, 3:53 PM
As you may have gleaned from our coverage of new home sales, construction, builder confidence, and mortgage apps recently, there are only so many ways...
Thu, Nov 21 2024, 12:13 PM
It's been a bit of a chaotic morning so far, but in a narrow enough range to make it relatively boring in the bigger picture. Bonds began the day in ...
Thu, Nov 21 2024, 11:55 AM
This morning I head from Columbia, MO (“COMO”… big thumb’s up for Sophia’s Italian) to Kansas City for the KC MBA luncheon. I have seen very few Tesla...
Wed, Nov 20 2024, 4:22 PM
Remember October and the first part of November--not because of the election, but rather because of the relentless rise in mortgage rates? Would you ...
Wed, Nov 20 2024, 3:41 PM
First thing's first, mortgage applications increased last week, both for purchases and refinances! It was the first improvement for refi demand since ...
Wed, Nov 20 2024, 11:48 AM
“I thought swimming with dolphins was expensive until I went swimming with sharks. It cost me an arm and a leg.” Through the wonders of modern air tra...
Wed, Nov 20 2024, 10:34 AM
There has been plenty of news over the past 48 hours regarding the U.S. greenlighting Ukraine to use long range missiles to attack Russia. Yesterday'...
Tue, Nov 19 2024, 4:59 PM
Bonds Give Back Most of The Overnight Gains
Stocks and bonds had a logical response to the threat of global ...
Tue, Nov 19 2024, 4:27 PM
Ask your favorite curmudgeonly old market watcher and they'll be happy to explain what "always" happens in financial markets when there's breaking new...
Tue, Nov 19 2024, 4:09 PM
The most common interval for scheduled economic data is "monthly." That means that things like inflation, sentiment, job counts, unemployment, retail...
Tue, Nov 19 2024, 11:13 AM
“What do giraffes and zoning regulations have in common? They both don't exist in Texas.” I am not heading there for a while, but instead head to St. ...
Tue, Nov 19 2024, 10:31 AM
Tuesday brings a classic example of a seemingly significant geopolitical headline resulting in a completely underwhelming bond market reaction. When ...
Mon, Nov 18 2024, 4:33 PM
Still Waiting For an End to Unfriendly Trend
It was an uneventful Monday for the bond market. Economic data...
Mon, Nov 18 2024, 4:01 PM
The average top tier conventional 30yr fixed rate was just a hair over 7% on Friday afternoon and the same is true at the start of the new week. Rate...
Mon, Nov 18 2024, 3:28 PM
Historically low interest rates may not have guaranteed historically high levels of housing activity, but exceptionally high rates have definitely mut...
Mon, Nov 18 2024, 11:44 AM
“I didn't make it to the gym again today. That makes five years in a row.” I did, however, make it to the aerodrome over the weekend, which involved t...
Mon, Nov 18 2024, 11:10 AM
While financial news outlets continue focusing on politics and Trump's cabinet picks, the bond market is expressing anxiety about the risk that econom...
Fri, Nov 15 2024, 3:41 PM
Uneventful Conclusion to Another Volatile Week
This morning began like many other recent mornings with econo...
Fri, Nov 15 2024, 2:54 PM
This afternoon's mortgage rates are higher than yesterday's latest levels. That's a result of bond market weakness seen late yesterday and earlier th...
Fri, Nov 15 2024, 11:48 AM
"To the person who stole my glasses. I will find you; I have contacts." Here in Cleveland, much of the mortgage talk involves conjecture about where w...
Fri, Nov 15 2024, 9:28 AM
All 3 of this morning's 8:30am economic reports were stronger than expected, and the 9:15am report was right in line with expectations. Of these, Ret...
Thu, Nov 14 2024, 4:34 PM
Powell Rains on Bond Market's Mini Parade
Today is a bit of a mirror image compared to yesterday. Bonds los...
Thu, Nov 14 2024, 4:15 PM
Losses... weakness... selling pressure... When any of these things happen in the bond market, it puts upward pressure on interest rates. Mortgage ra...
Thu, Nov 14 2024, 12:08 PM
Demographics matter. Although I am sending today’s Commentary out from a Dunkin’ near Columbus, Ohio, yesterday I found myself visiting a supposedly h...
Thu, Nov 14 2024, 10:01 AM
The morning has been both straightforward and interesting. The straightforward part involved a moderate sell-off following stronger economic data. J...
Wed, Nov 13 2024, 3:28 PM
While there's been plenty of movement in the average mortgage rate on any given day recently, today was not one of them. 30yr fixed rates remained ab...
Wed, Nov 13 2024, 3:11 PM
It's not entirely clear if it's a can or the proverbial bucket. All we know is that mortgage applications have been kicking it. There's no great way...
